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Enhanced weathering (EW) is a promising modification to current agricultural practices that uses crushed silicate rocks to drive carbon dioxide removal (CDR). If widely adopted on farmlands, it could help achieve net-zero or negative emissions by 2050. We report detailed state-level analysis indicating EW deployed on agricultural land could sequester 0.23-0.38 Gt CO$_2$ yr$^{-1}$ and meet 36-60 % of U.S. technological CDR goals. Average CDR costs vary between state, being highest in the first decades before declining to a range of $\sim\$$100-150 tCO$_2{}^{-1}$ by 2050, including for three states (Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana) that contribute most to total national CDR. We identify multiple electoral swing states as being essential for scaling EW that are also key beneficiaries of the practice, indicating the need for strong bipartisan support of this technology. Assessment the geochemical capacity of rivers and oceans to carry dissolved EW products from soil drainage suggests EW provides secure long-term CO$_2$ removal on intergenerational time scales. We additionally forecast mitigation of ground-level ozone increases expected with future climate change, as an indirect benefit of EW, and consequent avoidance of yield reductions. Our assessment supports EW as a practical innovation for leveraging agriculture to enable positive action on climate change with adherence to federal environmental justice priorities. However, implementing a stage-gating framework as upscaling proceeds to safeguard against environmental and biodiversity concerns will be essential.

Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 +/- 0.3{\deg}C (2$\sigma$) per W/m$^2$. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era -- including "slow" feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases -- supports this ECS and implies that CO$_2$ was about 300 ppm in the Pliocene and 400 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, thus exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming including slow feedbacks for today's human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (4.1 W/m$^2$) is 10{\deg}C, reduced to 8{\deg}C by today's aerosols. Decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970-2010 global warming rate of 0.18{\deg}C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27{\deg}C per decade. Under the current geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will likely pierce the 1.5{\deg}C ceiling in the 2020s and 2{\deg}C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming pumps up hydrologic extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: 1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions, 2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and 3) intervention with Earth's radiation imbalance to phase down today's massive human-made "geo-transformation" of Earth's climate. These changes will not happen with the current geopolitical approach, but current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation., Comment: 62 pages, 39 figures, 1 table. Revision for journal resubmission

We describe a method for merging multiple spreadsheets into one sheet, and/or exchanging data among the sheets, by expressing each sheet's formulae as an algebraic (equational) theory and each sheet's values as a model of its theory, expressing the overlap between the sheets as theory and model morphisms, and then performing colimit, lifting, and Kan-extension constructions from category theory to compute a canonically universal integrated theory and model, which can then be expressed as a spreadsheet. Our motivation is to find methods of merging engineering models that do not require consensus (agreement) among the authors of the models being merged, a condition fulfilled by our method because theory and model morphisms are semantics-preserving. We describe a case study of this methodology on a real-world oil and gas calculation at a major energy company, describing the theories and models that arise when integrating two different casing pressure test (MASP) calculation spreadsheets constructed by two non-interacting engineers. We also describe the automated theorem proving burden associated with both verifying the semantics preservation of the overlap mappings as well as verifying the conservativity/consistency of the resulting integrated sheet. We conclude with thoughts on how to apply the methodology to scale engineering efforts across the enterprise.

Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1degC relative to the 1880-1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3degC. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as during the prior interglacial, when sea level reached 6-9 meters higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets require "negative emissions", extraction of CO2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices may provide much of the extraction, and the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial could be limited and irreversible impacts minimized. In contrast, continued high emissions place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction have minimal estimated costs of 89-535 trillion dollars this century and have large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high emissions unarguably sentences young people to a massive, implausible cleanup, growing deleterious climate impacts or both., Comment: 53 pages, 27 figures

We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40 year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000 year) time scale of deep ocean ventilation affects the time scale for natural CO2 change and thus the time scale for paleo global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo millennial time scale should not be misinterpreted as the time scale for ice sheet response to a rapid large human-made climate forcing., Comment: 78 pages, 58 figures; submitted to Atmos. Chem. Phys

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise paleoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 +/- 1{\deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e., 3-4{\deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state-dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapor elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make much of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change., Comment: 38 pages, 19 figures; revised version submitted to Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A

"Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3{\sigma}) warmer than climatology. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface in the period of climatology, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change., Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures; submitted to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Global warming due to human-made gases, mainly CO2, is already 0.8{\deg}C and deleterious climate impacts are growing worldwide. More warming is 'in the pipeline' because Earth is out of energy balance, with absorbed solar energy exceeding planetary heat radiation. Maintaining a climate that resembles the Holocene, the world of stable shorelines in which civilization developed, requires rapidly reducing fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Such a scenario is economically sensible and has multiple benefits for humanity and other species. Yet fossil fuel extraction is expanding, including highly carbon-intensive sources that can push the climate system beyond tipping points such that amplifying feedbacks drive further climate change that is practically out of humanity's control. This situation raises profound moral issues as young people, future generations, and nature, with no possibility of protecting their future well-being, will bear the principal consequences of actions and inactions of today's adults., Comment: 28 pages, 6 figures; version submitted to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Improving observations of ocean heat content show that Earth is absorbing more energy from the sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.59 \pm 0.15 W/m2 during the 6-year period 2005-2010, confirms the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change. Observed surface temperature change and ocean heat gain together constrain the net climate forcing and ocean mixing rates. We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be 1.6 \pm 0.3 W/m2, implying substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud changes. Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large forcing is untenable, as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change. We conclude that recent slowdown of ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum. Observed sea level rise during the Argo float era is readily accounted for by ice melt and ocean thermal expansion, but the ascendency of ice melt leads us to anticipate acceleration of the rate of sea level rise this decade., Comment: 39 pages, 18 figures; revised version submitted to Atmos. Chem. Phys

Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2{\deg}C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed., Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures; final version accepted for publication in "Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium" (eds. Berger, Mesinger and Sijaci)

We study the nonlinear hydrodynamics of a 2+1 dimensional charged conformal fluid subject to slowly varying external electric and magnetic fields. Following recent work on deriving nonlinear hydrodynamics from gravity, we demonstrate how long wavelength perturbations of the AdS dyonic black brane solution of 4D supergravity are governed by equations equivalent to fluid dynamics equations in the boundary theory. We investigate the implications of $S$-duality for our system, and derive restrictions imposed on the transport coefficients of a generic fluid invariant under the S operation. We also expand on our earlier work and determine a new set of previously undetermined transport coefficients for the conformal fluid with an AdS gravity dual. Quite surprisingly, we discover that half of the transport coefficients allowed by symmetry vanish in the holographic fluid at linear order in the hydrodynamic expansion., Comment: 25 pages

We apply the recently established connection between nonlinear fluid dynamics and AdS gravity to the case of the dyonic black brane in AdS_4. This yields the equations of fluid dynamics for a 2+1 dimensional charged fluid in a background magnetic field. We construct the gravity solution to second order in the derivative expansion. From this we find the fluid dynamical stress tensor and charge current to second and third order in derivatives respectively, along with values for the associated transport coefficients., Comment: 20 pages. v3: Added section 2.3 on comparison to other approaches and definition of viscosity

We review the current state of modeling convective mixing in AGB stars. The focus is on results obtained through multi-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of AGB convection, both in the envelope and the unstable He-shell. Using two different codes and a wide range of resolutions and modeling assumptions we find that mixing across convective boundaries is significant for He-shell flash convection. We present a preliminary quantitative analysis of this convectively induced extra mixing, based on a sub-set of our simulations. Other non-standard mixing will be discussed briefly., Comment: Invited conference paper given at "Why Galaxies Care About AGB Stars", Vienna, August 7-11, 2006, to appear in ASP Conference Series

We unravel some subtleties involving the definition of sphere angular momentum charges in AdS_q \times S^p spacetimes, or equivalently, R-symmetry charges in the dual boundary CFT. In the AdS_3 context, it is known that charges can be generated by coordinate transformations, even though the underlying theory is diffeomorphism invariant. This is the bulk version of spectral flow in the boundary CFT. We trace this behavior back to special properties of the p-form field strength supporting the solution, and derive the explicit formulas for angular momentum charges. This analysis also reveals the higher dimensional origin of three dimensional Chern-Simons terms and of chiral anomalies in the boundary theory., Comment: 19 pages. V2: minor changes. V3: added references

The goal of this study was to extend what is currently understood regarding attitudes toward the homeless population. The study focused on how homeless and nonhomeless adolescents attribute the causes of homelessness. Grounded in attribution theory, the study hypothesized that nonhomeless adolescents would ascribe causality to dispositional or personal factors within a homeless person. Homeless adolescents, on the other hand, would causally attribute a person's state of homelessness to environmental conditions outside the person's immediate control. The samples consisted of two groups of adolescents, 61 homeless and 80 nonhomeless, ranging in age from 12 to 20 years. No differences were found at the multivariate level for the two groups along four dependent measures, two structural and two individual. Significance at the univariate level was found by group for both individual factors. A significant group and race interaction was also found on one structural factor. The literature was reviewed and further research questions were proposed. Appendixes contain the research questionnaire and a list of the dependent measures. (Contains 4 tables and 42 references.) (Author/SLD)

The convergence of the Q expansion in the ^3S_1-^3D_1 mixing angle is investigated through the renormalization condition used to fit the free paramteter encountered at NNLO. Although the NNLO calculation describes the data well at momenta much less than 50 MeV, a variation in the renormalization condition results in 100% expected uncertainties at momenta as low as 100 MeV. This uncertainty can be traced to the presence of large cancelations between terms entering at NNLO, which are found to be several times larger than the terms entering at NLO. This implies a fundamental lack of predictive power at this order int he Q expansion of \epsilon_1. Given the small empirical size, this lack of predictive power is easily understood in terms of simple power counting arguments., Comment: 14 pgs., 3 figs

Low energy theorems have been derived for the coefficients of the effective range expansion in s-wave nucleon-nucleon scattering valid to leading nontrivial order in an expansion based $Q$ counting, a scheme in which both $m_\pi$ and $1/a$ (where $a$ is the scattering length) are treated as small mass scales. Previous tests of these theorems based on coefficients extracted from scattering data indicate a pattern of gross violations which suggested serious problems for the perturbative treatment of pions implicit in $Q$ counting. We discuss the possibility that uncertainties associated with extracting the coefficients from the scattering data make such tests invalid. Here we show that errors in the s-wave phase shift extractions are sufficiently small to test direct test predictions from $Q$ counting at next to leading order. In particular we show that there exist low energy theorems for the sum of all terms in the effective range expansion beyond the first two which allow for precise tests. These low energy theorems fail badly which suggests that pionic aspects of $Q$ counting are not under control., Comment: 11 pages

Childhood cancer and its treatment have been identified as significant stressors for individuals and families. The impact of this experience on healthy siblings has not been clearly determined. This study was designed to assess siblings regarding their adjustment and their perceptions of their families following a sick sibling's treatment. Standardized measures were used to facilitate comparisons. Siblings of children who survived cancer (n=25) were compared with siblings of children who died of cancer (n=24) so as to understand the complexities of the experience relative to treatment outcome. Subjects were 49 siblings, ranging in age from 10 to 20 years, and their parents. Results indicate that siblings reported levels of behavioral disturbance which did not significantly differ from those of a contrast group of children referred for psychological services. However, siblings did not differ significantly from a normative group in terms of self-image adjustment. Minimal adjustment differences were found between bereaved siblings and nonbereaved siblings with bereaved siblings reporting poorer adjustment only in the area of body image. Similarly, no significant gender effects on sibling adjustment were found. Results suggest a preponderance of similarity in adjustment for bereaved and nonbereaved siblings. (Author/RJM)

Studies of parents of children treated for cancer have rarely included adequate samples of fathers or couples. Further, bereaved parents have been over-represented as compared to parents of cancer survivors. This study investigated the personal and interpersonal effects of having a child treated for cancer on 124 parents. Twenty-seven married couples were bereaved and 33 married couples were nonbereaved. Four bereaved parents without spouses were also included. All survivors had been off-treatment for at least 6 months and the average time since diagnosis was 6 years. Effects at the personal level-psychological distress-were assessed by self-report on one global scale and 7 subscales of the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI). Effects at the interpersonal level-marital satisfaction-were assessed by self-report on the summary scale and 2 factors of the Martial Adjustment Test. Mothers and fathers reported higher levels of psychological distress than nonpatient norms, but lower levels than outpatient psychiatric norms. Fathers reported lower levels of marital satisfaction than nonreferred male norms; mothers did not differ from norms on marital satisfaction. Matched pairs t-tests on 60 couples demonstrated no differences between mothers and fathers in terms of levels of psychological distress and marital satisfaction. Bereaved and nonbereaved mothers did not differ on reported levels of psychological distress after controlling for the effects of time since diagnosis. This time effect appeared to be more salient for mothers, with mothers of more recently diagnosed children reporting higher levels of distress. Bereaved fathers did report higher levels of psychological distress on several BSI subscales than did nonbereaved fathers; no effect of time since diagnosis was observed for fathers. After a median split into high and low on the distress dimension, bereaved mothers reporting higher psychological distress also reported lower satisfaction with their marriages. Fathers reporting higher levels of psychological distress also reported lower marital satisfaction, but this was true of both bereaved and nonbereaved fathers. The results reveal some areas of similarity in outcome for bereaved and nonbereaved parents and for mothers and fathers of children treated for cancer. There are suggestions, however, of differential processes for mothers and fathers in terms of the effects of time since diagnosis, treatment outcome, and personal distress on satisfaction with the marital relationship. The results are suggestive of the complexities of parental coping with childhood cancer and the need for greater specificity and continued study. (Author)

Low energy theorems are derived for the coefficients of the effective range expansion in s-wave nucleon-nucleon scattering valid to leading order in an expansion in which both $m_\pi$ and $1/a$ (where $a$ is the scattering length) are treated as small mass scales. Comparisons with phase shift data, however, reveal a pattern of gross violations of the theorems for all coefficients in both the $^1S_0$ and $^3S_1$ channels. Analogous theorems are developed for the energy dependence $\epsilon$ parameter which describes $^3S_1 - ^3D_1$ mixing. These theorems are also violated. These failures strongly suggest that the physical value of $m_\pi$ is too large for the chiral expansion to be valid in this context. Comparisons of $m_\pi$ with phenomenological scales known to arise in the two-nucleon problem support this conjecture., Comment: 12 pages, 1 figure, 1 table; appendix added to discuss behavior in chiral limit; minor revisions including revised figure reference to recent work added

An analytic expression for the ${}^1S_0$ phase shifts in nucleon-nucleon scattering is derived in the context of the Schr\"odinger equation in configuration space with a short distance cutoff and with a consistent power counting scheme including pionic effects. The scheme treats the pion mass and the inverse scattering length over the intrinsic short distance scale as small parameters. Working at next-to-leading order in this scheme, we show that the expression obtained is identical to one obtained using the recently introduced PDS approach which is based on dimensional regularization with a novel subtraction scheme. This strongly supports the conjecture that the schemes are equivalent provided one works to the same order in the power counting., Comment: 6 pages; replaced version has corrected typos (We thank Mike Birse for pointing them out to us

Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 C relative to the 1880 - 1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6 - 9 m higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying that more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict, but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming thus, at minimum, should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets now require "negative emissions", i.e., extraction of CO2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content, may provide much of the necessary CO2 extraction. In that case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions today place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction if they are to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 have minimal estimated costs of USD 89 - 535 trillion this century and also have large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both.

Data assimilation of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) for aerosol forecasting was tested within the Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (NAAPS) framework, using variational and ensemble data assimilation methods. Navy aerosol forecasting currently makes use of a deterministic NAAPS simulation coupled to Navy Variational Data Assimilation System for aerosol optical depth, a two-dimensional variational data assimilation system, for MODIS AOT assimilation. An ensemble version of NAAPS (ENAAPS) coupled to an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed was recently developed, allowing for a range of data assimilation and forecasting experiments to be run with deterministic NAAPS and ENAAPS. The main findings are that the EAKF, with its flow-dependent error covariances, makes better use of sparse observations such as AERONET AOT. Assimilating individual AERONET observations in the two-dimensional variational system can increase the analysis errors when observations are located in high AOT gradient regions. By including AERONET with MODIS AOT assimilation, the magnitudes of peak aerosol events (AOT> 1) were better captured with improved temporal variability, especially in India and Asia where aerosol prediction is a challenge. Assimilating AERONET AOT with MODIS had little impact on the 24 h forecast skill compared to MODIS assimilation only, but differences were found downwind of AERONET sites. The 24 h forecast skill was approximately the same for forecasts initialized with analyses from AERONET AOT assimilation alone compared to MODIS assimilation, particularly in regions where the AERONET network is dense; including the United States and Europe, indicating that AERONET could serve as a backup observation network for over-land synoptic-scale aerosol events.

Critically reviews efforts at theoretical integration of psychoanalysis and humanism along the lines of F. Pine's (1990) four psychologies of psychoanalysis. Concludes that psychoanalysis and humanism have certain compatible features, but that they generally represent opposing vantage points in the study of subjectivity. Provides recommendations for integrating these orientations in the psychotherapeutic process. (Contains 49 references.) (Author/GCP)

Vacc, Loesch, and Gilbert (1997) argued that mental-health counselors do not require training in the treatment of mentally disordered clients for the majority of their work. This article argues that the authors' conclusion is not supported by the research evidence. Discusses reasons why mental-health counselors should receive training. (Author/MKA)

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp. -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

The climate system of the Earth is endowed with a moderately strong greenhouse effect that is characterized by non-condensing greenhouse gases (GHGs) that provide the core radiative forcing. Of these, the most important is atmospheric CO2. There is a strong feedback contribution to the greenhouse effect by water vapor and clouds that is unique in the solar system, exceeding the core radiative forcing due to the non-condensing GHGs by a factor of three. The significance of the non-condensing GHGs is that once they have been injected into the atmosphere, they remain there virtually indefinitely because they do not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere, their chemical removal time ranging from decades to millennia. Water vapor and clouds have only a short lifespan, with their distribution determined by the locally prevailing meteorological conditions, subject to Clausius-Clapeyron constraint. Although solar irradiance is the ultimate energy source that powers the terrestrial greenhouse effect, there has been no discernible long-term trend in solar irradiance since precise monitoring began in the late 1970s. This leaves atmospheric CO2 as the effective control knob driving the current global warming trend. Over geological time scales, volcanoes are the principal source of atmospheric CO2, and the weathering of rocks is the principal sink, with the biosphere participating as both a source and a sink. The problem at hand is that human industrial activity is causing atmospheric CO2, to increase by 2 ppm per year, whereas the interglacial rate has been 0.005 ppm per year. This is a geologically unprecedented rate to turn the CO2 climate control knob. This is causing the global warming that threatens the global environment.

The critique by Rabilloud-whose only listed professional affiliation is an antinuclear activist groupis grossly biased and contains numerous misleading, hyperbolic, and erroneous claims about our paper2 and about nuclear energy in general. The nature of his comments bears a striking resemblance to the fallacious reasoning commonly employed by climate change deniers to try to undermine public concern about the climate crisis. Specifically, he resorts to cherry-picking of information and diversionary (red herring) arguments, demands unrealistic exactness, and cites untrustworthy sources. None of his claims undermine any of the key results of our paper, most notably our conclusion that nuclear energy has prevented, and can continue to prevent, a very high number of fatalities and very large greenhouse gas emissions due to fossil fuel burning. It follows that, as uncomfortable as it is for many well-intentioned environmentalists to admit, efforts to undermine nuclear energy also undermine mitigation of climate change and air pollution, with a heavy cost in human lives and potentially disastrous future climate change.

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Sovacool et al.'s analysis of our paper contains numerous errors, misinterpretations, and dubious assumptions. For instance, we make no presumption in our paper that nuclear power is the only major option to replace fossil fuels nor have we in the past, as evidenced by our other peer-reviewed publications. Furthermore, all of our results are based on complete fuel cycle analysis and are presented as mean values along with their ranges. Thus it is incorrect to claim that we single out the worst estimates for coal mortality. Contrary to Sovacool et al.'s assertions, our only bias is our belief that humanity's best chance of success for mitigating the daunting challenge of climate change is to utilize all available and proven means.

Stone et al. find that their analysis is unable to show a causal relation of local temperature anomalies, such as in Texas in 2011, with global warming. It was because of limitations in such local analyses that we reframed the problem in our report, separating the task of attribution of the causes of global warming from the task of quantifying changes in the likelihood of extreme local temperature anomalies.

In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000−7.04 million deaths and 80−240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.

Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3/yr, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40 of fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

Rhines and Huybers are correct that the decreasing number of measurement stations in recent years contributed slightly to our calculated increase of extreme summer mean temperature anomalies. However, the increased frequency of extreme heat anomalies is accounted for mainly by (i) higher mean temperature of recent decades relative to the base period 1951-1980, and (ii) the continuing upward temperature trend during recent decades. The effect of decreasing stations is shown by comparing our prior analysis with results using only stations with data records in both the base period and recent years (Fig. 1). The distribution is noisier, and the area with temperature anomaly exceeding three SDs during 2001-2011 decreases from 9.6 to 9.3% for the reduced number of stations (1,886 rather than 6,147), but our conclusions are not changed qualitatively. The temperature anomaly distribution shifts to the right and broadens because it is defined relative to a fixed (1951-1980) base period, during which global temperatures were within the Holocene range. We argue on the basis of accelerating ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica and rapidly rising sea level (now exceeding 3 mm/y or 3 m per millennium) that temperatures in the early 21st century are already above the Holocene range, and thus use of a base period preceding the rapid warming of the past three decades has merit.

Small global mean temperature changes may have significant to disastrous consequences for the Earth's climate if they persist for an extended period. Obtaining global means from local weather reports is hampered by the uneven spatial distribution of the reliably reporting weather stations. Methods had to be developed that minimize as far as possible the impact of that situation. This software is a method of combining temperature data of individual stations to obtain a global mean trend, overcoming/estimating the uncertainty introduced by the spatial and temporal gaps in the available data. Useful estimates were obtained by the introduction of a special grid, subdividing the Earth's surface into 8,000 equal-area boxes, using the existing data to create virtual stations at the center of each of these boxes, and combining temperature anomalies (after assessing the radius of high correlation) rather than temperatures.

Tumuli form via localized inflation in surface lava flows. These domed features have widths of 10-20 m, lengths of 10-150 m, and heights of 1-9 m. The axial fracture exposes a brittle crust overlying a ductilely deformed layer. The total crustal thickness is typically less than lm. Tumuli are observed on both terrestrial and martian lava flow surfaces, and provide insight on the flow formation processes and rates. Past studies have estimated the inflation pressure using a bending model for a circular, thin elastic plate, assuming small deflection (Rossi and Gudmundson, 1996). This formulation results in unrealistic pressures for some tumuli. We thus examine alternative models, including those with different shapes, bending of the ductile crust, large deflection, plastic deformation, and thick plate bending. Using the thickness of the ductile crust in the equations for thin, circular plates reduces most pressures to reasonable values. Alternative plate shapes do not cause a significant reduction in inflation pressure. Although the large deflection equations should be applicable based on the plate thickness to tumuli height ratios, they give even less realistic pressures. Tumuli with unrealistic pressures appear to have exceeded the critical bending moment, and have relatively thick crusts, requiring thick plate bending models.

This first volume, plus the succeeding five now in preparation, covers the impact of aerodynamic development on the evolution of the airplane in America. As the six-volume series will ultimately demonstrate, just as the airplane is a defining technology of the twentieth century, aerodynamics has been the defining element of the airplane. Volumes two through six will proceed in roughly chronological order, covering such developments as the biplane, the advent of commercial airliners, flying boats, rotary aircraft, supersonic flight, and hypersonic flight. This series is designed as an aeronautics companion to the Exploring the Unknown: Selected Documents in the History of the U.S. Civil Space Program (NASA SP-4407) series of books. As with Exploring the Unknown, the documents collected during this research project were assembled from a diverse number of public and private sources. A major repository of primary source materials relative to the history of the civil space program is the NASA Historical Reference Collection in the NASA Headquarters History Office. Historical materials housed at NASA field centers, academic institutions, and Presidential libraries were other sources of documents considered for inclusion, as were papers in the archives of private individuals and corporations.

A far-wing line shape theory which satisfies the detailed balance principle is applied to the H2O-H2O system. Within this formalism, two line shapes are introduced, corresponding to band-averages over the positive and negative resonance lines, respectively. Using the coordinate representation, the two line shapes can be obtained by evaluating 11-dimensional integrations whose integrands are a product of two factors. One depends on the interaction between the two molecules and is easy to evaluate. The other contains the density matrix of the system and is expressed as a product of two 3-dimensional distributions associated with the density matrices of the absorber and the perturber molecule, respectively. If most of the populated states are included in the averaging process, to obtain these distributions requires extensive computer CPU time, but only have to be computed once for a given temperature. The 11-dimensional integrations are evaluated using the Monte Carlo method, and in order to reduce the variance, the integration variables are chosen such that the sensitivity of the integrands on them is clearly distinguished.

In spite of the confusion in the public discourse about global warming, there is no doubt that the Earth has been warming for the past century. The chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere is complex, and it is sometimes difficult to claim cause-and-effect with certainty. Nevertheless, the evidence seems clear that CO2 and non-CO2 forcings such as methane and air pollution are causally related to this warming trend. Our dependence on fossil fuels make it difficult to expect that massive reductions in CO2 will be feasible in the near-term, however. In this talk I will consider the evidence for global warming, the extent to which we can extrapolate current trends into the future if no changes in global policy are introduced, and those near-term policies that might be realistically introduced to significantly affect those trends.

We investigate the chemical (hydroxyl and ozone) and dynamical response to changing from present day to pre-industrial conditions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GMC). We identify three main improvements not included by many other works. Firstly, our model includes interactive cloud calculations. Secondly we reduce sulfate aerosol which impacts NOx partitioning hence Ox distributions. Thirdly we reduce sea surface temperatures and increase ocean ice coverage which impact water vapor and ground albedo respectively. Changing the ocean data (hence water vapor and ozone) produces a potentially important feedback between the Hadley circulation and convective cloud cover. Our present day run (run 1, control run) global mean OH value was 9.8 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. For our best estimate of pre-industrial conditions run (run 2) which featured modified chemical emissions, sulfate aerosol and sea surface temperatures/ocean ice, this value changed to 10.2 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing only the chemical emissions to pre-industrial levels in run 1 (run 3) resulted in this value increasing to 10.6 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing the sulfate in run 3 to pre-industrial levels (run 4) resulted in a small increase in global mean OH (10.7 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc). Changing the ocean data in run 4 to pre-industrial levels (run 5) led to a reduction in this value to 10.3 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Mean tropospheric ozone burdens were 262, 181, 180, 180, and 182 Tg for runs 1-5 respectively.

How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/sq m per century. This growth rate has since declined to approximately equal to 3 W/sq m per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate "alternative" climate scenario (approximately equal to 2 W/M2 per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic "co-benefits" of actions that slow CO2 emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate + 0.15 +/- 0.05 C per decade will occur over the next several decades.

Theoretical models of the remnants of massive stars in a very hot, post-red-supergiant phase display no obvious instability if standard assumptions are made. However, the brightest observed classical luminous blue variables (LBVs) may well belong to such a phase. A simple time-dependent theory of moving stellar envelopes is developed in order to treat deep hydrodynamical disturbances caused by surface mass loss and to test the moving envelopes for dynamical instability. In the case of steady-state outflow, the theory reduces to the equivalent of the Castor, Abbott, and Klein formulation for optically thick winds at distances well above the sonic point. The time-dependent version indicates that the brightest and hottest LBVs are both dynamically and radiatively unstable, as a result of the substantial lowering of the generalized Eddington luminosity limit by the mass-loss acceleration. It is suggested that dynamical instability, by triggering secular cycles of mass loss, is primarily what differentiates LBVs from the purely radiatively unstable Wolf-Rayet stars. Furthermore, when accurate main-sequence mass-loss rates are used to calculate the evolutionary tracks, the predicted surface hydrogen and nitrogen abundances of the blue remnants agree much better with observations of the brightest LBVs than before.

We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.