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Weather regimes describe the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes in terms of a few circulation states that modulate regional surface weather. Subseasonal forecasts of prevailing weather regimes have proven skillful and valuable to energy applications. Previous studies have mainly focused on the mean surface weather associated with a regime. However, we show in this paper that variability of surface weather within a regime cannot be ignored. These intra-regime variations, caused by different `subflavors' of the same regime, can be captured by continuous regime indices and allow a refined application of weather regimes. Here we discuss wintertime temperature and wind speed regime anomalies for four selected countries, and provide guidance on the operational use and interpretation of regime forecasts. In an accompanying supplementary dataset we provide similar analysis for all European countries, seasons and key energy variables, useful as an applied reference., Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, supplement in SI.pdf. Submitted to Geophysical Research Letters

Reliable forecasts of quasi-stationary, recurrent, and persistent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (weather regimes) are crucial for various socio-economic sectors. Despite steady progress, probabilistic weather regime predictions still exhibit biases in the exact timing and amplitude of weather regimes. This study thus aims at advancing probabilistic weather regime predictions in the North Atlantic-European region through ensemble post-processing. Here, we focus on the representation of seven year-round weather regimes in the sub-seasonal to seasonal reforecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The manifestation of each of the seven regimes can be expressed by a continuous weather regime index, representing the projection of the instantaneous 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies (Z500A) onto the respective mean regime pattern. We apply a two-step ensemble post-processing involving first univariate ensemble model output statistics and second ensemble copula coupling, which restores the multivariate dependency structure. Compared to current forecast calibration practices, which rely on correcting the Z500 field by the lead time dependent mean bias, our approach extends the forecast skill horizon for daily/instantaneous regime forecasts moderately by 1.2 days to 14.5 days. Additionally, to our knowledge our study is the first to systematically evaluate the multivariate aspects of forecast quality for weather regime forecasts. Our method outperforms current practices in the multivariate aspect, as measured by the energy and variogram score. Still our study shows, that even with advanced post-processing weather regime prediction becomes difficult beyond 14 days, which likely points towards intrinsic limits of predictability for daily/instantaneous regime forecasts. The proposed method can easily be applied to operational weather regime forecasts., Comment: submitted to Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (QJRMS)

The accurate prediction of intense precipitation events is one of the main objectives of operational weather services. This task is even more relevant nowadays, with the rapid progression of global warming which intensifies these events. Numerical weather prediction models have improved continuously over time, providing uncertainty estimation with dynamical ensembles. However, direct precipitation forecasting is still challenging. Greater availability of machine learning tools paves the way to a hybrid forecasting approach, with the optimal combination of physical models, event statistics, and user-oriented post-processing. Here we describe a specific chain, based on a random forest pipeline, specialised in recognizing favourable synoptic conditions leading to precipitation extremes and subsequently classifying extremes into predefined types. The application focuses on Northern and Central Italy, taken as a testbed region, but is seamlessly extensible to other regions and timescales. The system is called MaLCoX (Machine Learning model predicting Conditions for eXtreme precipitation) and is running daily at the Italian regional weather service of ARPAE Emilia-Romagna. MalCoX has been trained with the ARCIS gridded high-resolution precipitation dataset as the target truth, using the last 20 years of the ECMWF re-forecast dataset as input predictors. We show that, with a long enough training period, the optimal blend of larger-scale information with direct model output improves the probabilistic forecast accuracy of extremes in the medium range. In addition, with specific methods, we provide a useful diagnostic to convey to forecasters the underlying physical storyline which makes a meteorological event extreme., Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures

Renewable generation from wind and solar power is strongly weather-dependent. To plan future sustainable energy systems that are robust to this variability, a better understanding of why and when periods of low wind and solar power output occur is valuable. We call such periods of low wind and solar power output `Dunkelflauten', the German word for dark wind lulls. In this article, we analyse the meteorological conditions during Dunkelflauten in Germany by applying the concept of weather regimes. Weather regimes are quasi-stationary, recurrent, and persistent large-scale circulation patterns which explain multi-day atmospheric variability (5-15 days). We use a regime definition that allows us to distinguish four different types of blocked regimes, characterised by high pressure situations in the North Atlantic-European region. We find that in Germany, Dunkelflauten mainly occur in winter when the solar power output is anyway low and when the wind power output drops for several consecutive days. A high-pressure system over Germany, associated with the European Blocking regime, is responsible for most of the Dunkelflauten. Dunkelflauten during the Greenland Blocking regime are associated with colder temperatures than usual, causing higher electricity demand and presenting a particular challenge as space heating demand electrifies in future. Furthermore, we show that Dunkelflauten occur predominantly when a weather regime is well-established and persists longer than usual. Our study provides novel insight on the occurrence and meteorological characteristics of Dunkelflauten, which is essential for planning resilient energy systems and supporting grid operators to prepare for potential shortages in supply., Comment: 20pages, 11figures, submitted to "Meteorological Applications" by Royal Meteorological Society (https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/14698080)