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We propose a novel scheme for controlling the injection of a high-quality electron bunch into a channel-guided laser plasma accelerator. This all-optical technique, constricted waveguide injection, creates a highly tunable controlled injection structure natively within a plasma waveguide, a key requirement for efficient acceleration of high-quality multi-GeV electron beams. We describe a simple optical setup to tailor the plasma and present start-to-end simulations showing the injection structure formation and the generation of a 1.1 GeV electron beam with 10 pC of charge and 0.35 % energy spread using 1 J of drive laser energy. Highly tunable tailored plasma sources, like those proposed here, enable fine control over the injection and acceleration processes and thus will be crucial for the development of application-focused laser plasma accelerators., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures

We present the first homogeneous release of several thousand Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), all having spectroscopic classification, and spectroscopic redshifts for half the sample. This release, named the "DR2", contains 3628 nearby (z < 0.3) SNe Ia discovered, followed and classified by the Zwicky Transient Facility survey between March 2018 and December 2020. Of these, 3000 have good-to-excellent sampling and 2667 pass standard cosmology light-curve quality cuts. This release is thus the largest SN Ia release to date, increasing by an order of magnitude the number of well characterized low-redshift objects. With the "DR2", we also provide a volume-limited (z < 0.06) sample of nearly a thousand SNe Ia. With such a large, homogeneous and well controlled dataset, we are studying key current questions on SN cosmology, such as the linearity SNe Ia standardization, the SN and host dependencies, the diversity of the SN Ia population, and the accuracy of the current light-curve modeling. These, and more, are studied in detail in a series of articles associated with this release. Alongside the SN Ia parameters, we publish our force-photometry gri-band light curves, 5138 spectra, local and global host properties, observing logs, and a python tool to ease use and access of these data. The photometric accuracy of the "DR2" is not yet suited for cosmological parameter inference, which will follow as "DR2.5" release. We nonetheless demonstrate that the multi-thousand SN Ia Hubble Diagram has a typical 0.15 mag scatter., Comment: ZTF SN Ia DR2 release paper. Submitted to A&A (ZTF DR2 Special Issue). Already 1 response to referee

The workshop focused on the application of ANAs to particle physics keeping in mind the ultimate goal of a collider at the energy frontier (10\,TeV, e$^+$/e$^-$, e$^-$/e$^-$, or $\gamma\gamma$). The development of ANAs is conducted at universities and national laboratories worldwide. The community is thematically broad and diverse, in particular since lasers suitable for ANA research (multi-hundred-terawatt peak power, a few tens of femtosecond-long pulses) and acceleration of electrons to hundreds of mega electron volts to multi giga electron volts became commercially available. The community spans several continents (Europe, America, Asia), including more than 62 laboratories in more than 20 countries. It is among the missions of the ICFA-ANA panel to feature the amazing progress made with ANAs, to provide international coordination and to foster international collaborations towards a future HEP collider. The scope of this edition of the workshop was to discuss the recent progress and necessary steps towards realizing a linear collider for particle physics based on novel-accelerator technologies (laser or beam driven in plasma or structures). Updates on the relevant aspects of the European Strategy for Particle Physics (ESPP) Roadmap Process as well as of the P5 (in the US) were presented, and ample time was dedicated to discussions. The major outcome of the workshop is the decision for ALEGRO to coordinate efforts in Europe, in the US, and in Asia towards a pre-CDR for an ANA-based, 10\,TeV CM collider. This goal of this coordination is to lead to a funding proposal to be submitted to both EU and EU/US funding agencies. This document presents a summary of the workshop, as seen by the co-chairs, as well as short 'one-pagers' written by the presenters at the workshop., Comment: 72 pages

SNe Ia are used to determine the distance-redshift relation and build the Hubble diagram. Neglecting their host-galaxy peculiar velocities (PVs) may bias the measurement of cosmological parameters. The smaller the redshift, the larger the effect is. We use realistic simulations of SNe Ia observed by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) to investigate the effect of different methods to take into account PVs. We study the impact of neglecting galaxy PVs and their correlations in an analysis of the SNe Ia Hubble diagram. We find that it is necessary to use the PV full covariance matrix computed from the velocity power spectrum to take into account the sample variance. Considering the results we have obtained using simulations, we determine the PV systematic effects in the context of the ZTF DR2 SNe Ia sample. We determine the PV impact on the intercept of the Hubble diagram, $a_B$, which is directly linked to the measurement of $H_0$. We show that not taking into account PVs and their correlations results in a shift of the $H_0$ value of about $1.0$km.s$^{-1}$.Mpc$^{-1}$ and a slight underestimation of the $H_0$ error bar., Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures

Radio-frequency particle accelerators are engines of discovery, powering high-energy physics and photon science, but are also large and expensive due to their limited accelerating fields. Plasma-wakefield accelerators (PWFAs) provide orders-of-magnitude stronger fields in the charge-density wave behind a particle bunch travelling in a plasma, promising particle accelerators of greatly reduced size and cost. However, PWFAs can easily degrade the beam quality of the bunches they accelerate. Emittance, which determines how tightly beams can be focused, is a critical beam quality in for instance colliders and free-electron lasers, but is particularly prone to degradation. We demonstrate, for the first time, emittance preservation in a high-gradient and high-efficiency PWFA while simultaneously preserving charge and energy spread. This establishes that PWFAs can accelerate without degradation$\unicode{x2014}$essential for energy boosters in photon science and multistage facilities for compact high-energy particle colliders., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, 11 supplementary figures

Max-autogressive moving average (Max-ARMA) processes are powerful tools for modelling time series data with heavy-tailed behaviour; these are a non-linear version of the popular autoregressive moving average models. River flow data typically have features of heavy tails and non-linearity, as large precipitation events cause sudden spikes in the data that then exponentially decay. Therefore, stationary Max-ARMA models are a suitable candidate for capturing the unique temporal dependence structure exhibited by river flows. This paper contributes to advancing our understanding of the extremal properties of stationary Max-ARMA processes. We detail the first approach for deriving the extremal index, the lagged asymptotic dependence coefficient, and an efficient simulation for a general Max-ARMA process. We use the extremal properties, coupled with the belief that Max-ARMA processes provide only an approximation to extreme river flow, to fit such a model which can broadly capture river flow behaviour over a high threshold. We make our inference under a reparametrisation which gives a simpler parameter space that excludes cases where any parameter is non-identifiable. We illustrate results for river flow data from the UK River Thames.

We study the ability of LLMs to generate feedback for scientific papers and develop MARG, a feedback generation approach using multiple LLM instances that engage in internal discussion. By distributing paper text across agents, MARG can consume the full text of papers beyond the input length limitations of the base LLM, and by specializing agents and incorporating sub-tasks tailored to different comment types (experiments, clarity, impact) it improves the helpfulness and specificity of feedback. In a user study, baseline methods using GPT-4 were rated as producing generic or very generic comments more than half the time, and only 1.7 comments per paper were rated as good overall in the best baseline. Our system substantially improves the ability of GPT-4 to generate specific and helpful feedback, reducing the rate of generic comments from 60% to 29% and generating 3.7 good comments per paper (a 2.2x improvement).

To capture the extremal behaviour of complex environmental phenomena in practice, flexi\-ble techniques for modelling tail behaviour are required. In this paper, we introduce a variety of such methods, which were used by the Lancopula Utopiversity team to tackle the EVA (2023) Conference Data Challenge. This data challenge was split into four challenges, labelled C1-C4. Challenges C1 and C2 comprise univariate problems, where the goal is to estimate extreme quantiles for a non-stationary time series exhibiting several complex features. For these, we propose a flexible modelling technique, based on generalised additive models, with diagnostics indicating generally good performance for the observed data. Challenges C3 and C4 concern multivariate problems where the focus is on estimating joint extremal probabilities. For challenge C3, we propose an extension of available models in the multivariate literature and use this framework to estimate extreme probabilities in the presence of non-stationary dependence. Finally, for challenge C4, which concerns a 50 dimensional random vector, we employ a clustering technique to achieve dimension reduction and use a conditional modelling approach to estimate extremal probabilities across independent groups of variables., Comment: 36 pages (inc. supplementary)

This contribution outlines the HALHF concept, which combines the high gradients achievable in plasma-wakefield acceleration with conventional radio-frequency acceleration. In HALHF, beam-driven plasma-wakefield cells are used to accelerate electrons to high energy. Because plasma-based acceleration of positrons is problematic, conventional RF acceleration is used but to much lower energy. The HALHF concept utilises not only asymmetric energies but also asymmetric bunch charges and asymmetric transverse emittances, leading to comparable luminosity to conventional facilities but much lower capital cost. Possible upgrades to the HALHF facility are discussed, in particular to the $\rm{t\bar{t}}$ threshold and to 550 GeV, where the Higgs self-coupling and $\rm{t\bar{t}}H$ coupling can be measured. Other upgrades include the provision of two interaction points, to implement a $\gamma$$\unicode{x2013}$$\gamma$ collider of two possible types and finally a symmetric high-energy collider if the problem of plasma-based positron acceleration can be solved., Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, conference proceeding for the 6th European Advanced Accelerator Concepts workshop (EAAC2023), 17-23 September 2023

We introduce the task of automatically revising scientific papers based on peer feedback and release ARIES, a dataset of review comments and their corresponding paper edits. The data is drawn from real reviewer-author interactions from computer science, and we provide labels linking each reviewer comment to the specific paper edits made by the author in response. We automatically create a high-precision silver training set, as well as an expert-labeled test set that shows high inter-annotator agreement. In experiments with 10 models covering the state of the art, we find that they struggle even to identify which edits correspond to a comment -- especially when the relationship between the edit and the comment is indirect and requires reasoning to uncover. We also extensively analyze GPT-4's ability to generate edits given a comment and the original paper. We find that it often succeeds on a superficial level, but tends to rigidly follow the wording of the feedback rather than the underlying intent, and lacks technical details compared to human-written edits., Comment: ACL 2024, 10 pages, 2 figures

Recent studies suggest spectroscopic differences explain a fraction of the variation in Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) luminosities after light-curve/color standardization. In this work, (i) we empirically characterize the variations of standardized SN Ia luminosities, and (ii) we use a spectroscopically inferred parameter, SIP, to improve the precision of SNe Ia along the distance ladder and the determination of the Hubble constant ($H_0$). First, we show that the \texttt{Pantheon+} covariance model modestly overestimates the uncertainty of standardized magnitudes by $\sim 7$%, in the parameter space used by the $\texttt{SH0ES}$ Team to measure $H_0$; accounting for this alone yields $H_0 = 73.01 \pm 0.92$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. Furthermore, accounting for spectroscopic similarity between SNe~Ia on the distance ladder reduces their relative scatter to $\sim0.12$ mag per object (compared to $\sim 0.14$ mag previously). Combining these two findings in the model of SN covariance, we find an overall 14% reduction (to $\pm 0.85$km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$) of the uncertainty in the Hubble constant and a modest increase in its value. Including a budget for systematic uncertainties itemized by Riess et al. (2022a), we report an updated local Hubble constant with $\sim1.2$% uncertainty, $H_0 = 73.29 \pm 0.90$km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. We conclude that spectroscopic differences among photometrically standardized SNe Ia do not explain the ``Hubble tension." Rather, accounting for such differences increases its significance, as the discrepancy against $\Lambda$CDM calibrated by the ${\it Planck}$ 2018 measurement rises to 5.7$\sigma$., Comment: 28 pages, 15 figures, accepted to JCAP

For plasma-wakefield accelerators to fulfil their potential for cost effectiveness, it is essential that their energy-transfer efficiency be maximized. A key aspect of this efficiency is the near-complete transfer of energy, or depletion, from the driver electrons to the plasma wake. Achieving full depletion is limited by the process of re-acceleration, which occurs when the driver electrons decelerate to non-relativistic energies, slipping backwards into the accelerating phase of the wakefield and being subsequently re-accelerated. Such re-acceleration is unambiguously observed here for the first time. At this re-acceleration limit, we measure a beam driver depositing (57 $\pm$ 3)\% of its energy into a 195-mm-long plasma. Combining this driver-to-plasma efficiency with previously measured plasma-to-beam and expected wall-plug-to-driver efficiencies, our result suggests that plasma-wakefield accelerators can in principle reach or even exceed the energy-transfer efficiency of conventional accelerators., Comment: Manuscript: 7 pages, 4 figures; Supplementary material: 3 pages, 1 figure

The construction of an electron--positron collider "Higgs factory" has been stalled for a decade, not because of feasibility but because of the cost of conventional radio-frequency (RF) acceleration. Plasma-wakefield acceleration promises to alleviate this problem via significant cost reduction based on its orders-of-magnitude higher accelerating gradients. However, plasma-based acceleration of positrons is much more difficult than for electrons. We propose a collider scheme that avoids positron acceleration in plasma, using a mixture of beam-driven plasma-wakefield acceleration to high energy for the electrons and conventional RF acceleration to low energy for the positrons. We emphasise the benefits of asymmetric energies, asymmetric bunch charges and asymmetric transverse emittances. The implications for luminosity and experimentation at such an asymmetric facility are explored and found to be comparable to conventional facilities; the cost is found to be much lower. Some of the areas in which R\&D is necessary to make HALHF a reality are highlighted,including estimates for the improvement required in key technologies. These range from a factor of 10 to a factor of 1000., Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, 4 tables

We present the most recent results from the FASTSUM collaboration for hadron properties at high temperature. This includes the temperature dependence of the light and charmed meson and baryon spectrum, as well as properties of heavy quarkonia. The results are obtained using anisotropic lattices with a fixed scale approach. We also present the status of our next generation gauge ensembles., Comment: 8 pages, 8 figures. Contribution to the XVth Quark Confinement and the Hadron Spectrum, 1-6 August 2022, Stavanger, Norway

Learned representations of scientific documents can serve as valuable input features for downstream tasks without further fine-tuning. However, existing benchmarks for evaluating these representations fail to capture the diversity of relevant tasks. In response, we introduce SciRepEval, the first comprehensive benchmark for training and evaluating scientific document representations. It includes 24 challenging and realistic tasks, 8 of which are new, across four formats: classification, regression, ranking and search. We then use this benchmark to study and improve the generalization ability of scientific document representation models. We show how state-of-the-art models like SPECTER and SciNCL struggle to generalize across the task formats, and that simple multi-task training fails to improve them. However, a new approach that learns multiple embeddings per document, each tailored to a different format, can improve performance. We experiment with task-format-specific control codes and adapters and find they outperform the existing single-embedding state-of-the-art by over 2 points absolute. We release the resulting family of multi-format models, called SPECTER2, for the community to use and build on., Comment: 19 pages, 2 figures, 11 tables. Accepted in EMNLP 2023 Main Conference

Energy-transfer efficiency is an important quantity in plasma-wakefield acceleration, especially for applications that demand high average power. Conventionally, the efficiency is measured using an electron spectrometer; an invasive method that provides an energy-transfer efficiency averaged over the full length of the plasma accelerator. Here, we experimentally demonstrate a novel diagnostic utilizing the excess light emitted by the plasma after a beam-plasma interaction, which yields noninvasive, longitudinally resolved measurements of the local energy-transfer efficiency from the wake to the accelerated bunch; here, as high as (58 $\pm$ 3)%. This method is suitable for online optimization of individual stages in a future multistage plasma accelerator, and enables experimental studies of the relation between efficiency and transverse instability in the acceleration process., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures

We present a measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) using type Ia supernova (SNe Ia) in the near-infrared (NIR) from the recently updated sample of SNe Ia in nearby galaxies with distances measured via Cepheid period-luminosity relations by the SHOES project. We collect public near-infrared photometry of up to 19 calibrator SNe Ia and further 57 SNe Ia in the Hubble flow ($z>0.01$), and directly measure their peak magnitudes in the $J$ and $H$ band by Gaussian processes and spline interpolation. Calibrator peak magnitudes together with Cepheid-based distances are used to estimate the average absolute magnitude in each band, while Hubble-flow SNe are used to constrain the zero-point intercept of the magnitude-redshift relation. Our baseline result of $H_0$ is $72.3\pm1.4$ (stat) $\pm1.4$ (syst) km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ in the $J$ band and $72.3\pm1.3$ (stat) $\pm1.4$ (syst) km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ in the $H$ band, where the systematic uncertainties include the standard deviation of up to 21 variations of the analysis, the 0.7\% distance scale systematic from SHOES Cepheid anchors, a photometric zeropoint systematic, and a cosmic variance systematic. Our final measurement represents a measurement with a precision of 2.8\% in both bands. The variant with the largest change in $H_0$ is when limiting the sample to SNe from CSP and CfA programmes, noteworthy because these are the best calibrated, yielding $H_0\sim75$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ in both bands. We demonstrate stretch and reddening corrections are still useful in the NIR to standardize SN Ia NIR peak magnitudes. Based on our results, in order to improve the precision of the $H_0$ measurement with SNe Ia in the NIR in the future, we would need to increase the number of calibrator SNe Ia, be able to extend the Hubble-Lema\^itre diagram to higher-z, and include standardization procedures to help reducing the NIR intrinsic scatter., Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures. Accepted in A&A

Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency pose an increasing risk to coastline communities. We present a new method for estimating extreme sea levels that accounts for the effects of climate change on extreme events that are not accounted for by mean sea level trends. We follow a joint probabilities methodology, considering skew surge and peak tides as the only components of sea levels. We model extreme skew surges using a non-stationary generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) with covariates accounting for climate change, seasonality and skew surge-peak tide interaction. We develop methods to efficiently test for extreme skew surge trends across different coastlines and seasons. We illustrate our methods using data from four UK tide gauges.

Reliable estimates of sea level return levels are crucial for coastal flooding risk assessments and for coastal flood defence design. We describe a novel method for estimating extreme sea levels that is the first to capture seasonality, interannual variations and longer term changes. We use a joint probabilities method, with skew surge and peak tide as two sea level components. The tidal regime is predictable but skew surges are stochastic. We present a statistical model for skew surges, where the main body of the distribution is modelled empirically whilst a non-stationary generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) is used for the upper tail. We capture within-year seasonality by introducing a daily covariate to the GPD model and allowing the distribution of peak tides to change over months and years. Skew surge-peak tide dependence is accounted for via a tidal covariate in the GPD model and we adjust for skew surge temporal dependence through the subasymptotic extremal index. We incorporate spatial prior information in our GPD model to reduce the uncertainty associated with the highest return level estimates. Our results are an improvement on current return level estimates, with previous methods typically underestimating. We illustrate our method at four UK tide gauges.

Real-world applications of neural language models often involve running many different models over the same corpus. The high computational cost of these runs has led to interest in techniques that can reuse the contextualized embeddings produced in previous runs to speed training and inference of future ones. We refer to this approach as embedding recycling (ER). While multiple ER techniques have been proposed, their practical effectiveness is still unknown because existing evaluations consider very few models and do not adequately account for overhead costs. We perform an extensive evaluation of ER across eight different models (17 to 900 million parameters) and fourteen tasks in English. We show how a simple ER technique that caches activations from an intermediate layer of a pretrained model, and learns task-specific adapters on the later layers, is broadly effective. For the best-performing baseline in our experiments (DeBERTa-v2 XL), adding a precomputed cache results in a >90% speedup during training and 87-91% speedup for inference, with negligible impact on accuracy. Our analysis reveals important areas of future work., Comment: EACL Findings 2023

The three rung distance ladder, which calibrates Type Ia supernovae through stellar distances linked to geometric measurements, provides the highest precision direct measurement of the Hubble constant. In light of the Hubble tension, it is important to test the individual components of the distance ladder. For this purpose, we report a measurement of the Hubble constant from 35 extragalactic Cepheid hosts measured by the SH0ES team, using their distances and redshifts at cz < 3300 km /s , instead of any, more distant Type Ia supernovae, to measure the Hubble flow. The Cepheid distances are calibrated geometrically in the Milky Way, NGC 4258, and the Large Magellanic Cloud. Peculiar velocities are a significant source of systematic uncertainty at z $\sim$ 0.01, and we present a formalism for both mitigating and quantifying their effects, making use of external reconstructions of the density and velocity fields in the nearby universe. We identify a significant source of uncertainty originating from different assumptions about the selection criteria of this sample, whether distance or redshift limited, as it was assembled over three decades. Modeling these assumptions yields central values ranging from H0 = 71.8 to 77.0 km/s/Mpc. Combining the four best fitting selection models yields H0 = 73.1 (+2.6/-2.3) km/s/Mpc as a fiducial result, at $2.6\sigma$ tension with Planck. While Type Ia supernovae are essential for a precise measurement of H0, unknown systematics in these supernovae are unlikely to be the source of the Hubble tension, Comment: 26 Pages, 11 Figures, Submitted to ApJ

The interaction of intense particle bunches with plasma can give rise to plasma wakes capable of sustaining gigavolt-per-metre electric fields, which are orders of magnitude higher than provided by state-of-the-art radio-frequency technology. Plasma wakefields can, therefore, strongly accelerate charged particles and offer the opportunity to reach higher particle energies with smaller and hence more widely available accelerator facilities. However, the luminosity and brilliance demands of high-energy physics and photon science require particle bunches to be accelerated at repetition rates of thousands or even millions per second, which are orders of magnitude higher than demonstrated with plasma-wakefield technology. Here we investigate the upper limit on repetition rates of beam-driven plasma accelerators by measuring the time it takes for the plasma to recover to its initial state after perturbation by a wakefield. The many-nanosecond-level recovery time measured establishes the in-principle attainability of megahertz rates of acceleration in plasmas. The experimental signatures of the perturbation are well described by simulations of a temporally evolving parabolic ion channel, transferring energy from the collapsing wake to the surrounding media. This result establishes that plasma-wakefield modules could be developed as feasible high-repetition-rate energy boosters at current and future particle-physics and photon-science facilities.

Laser-plasma acceleration (LPA) is a compact technique to accelerate electron bunches to highly relativistic energies, making it a promising candidate to power radiation sources for industrial or medical applications. We report on the generation of electron beams from an 80 MeV-level LPA setup based on ionisation injection (II) over a duration of 8 hours at a repetition rate of 2.5 Hz, resulting in 72,000 consecutive shots with charge injection and acceleration. Over the full operation time the moving averages of the total beam charge of 14.5 pC and the charge between 70-80 MeV did not drift on a detectable level. The largest source of shot-to-shot jitter was in the beam charge (26% standard deviation), which was most strongly correlated with fluctuations in the plasma density (3.6% standard deviation). Particle-in-cell simulations demonstrate that this was chiefly caused by stronger laser self-focusing in higher density plasmas, which significantly increased the ionised charge along with the emittance of the beam. The nonlinearity of this process imposes tight constraints on the reproducibility of the laser-plasma conditions required for a low jitter II-LPA output if self-focusing plays a role in the laser evolution., Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures

We present constraints on cosmological parameters from the Pantheon+ analysis of 1701 light curves of 1550 distinct Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) ranging in redshift from $z=0.001$ to 2.26. This work features an increased sample size, increased redshift span, and improved treatment of systematic uncertainties in comparison to the original Pantheon analysis and results in a factor of two improvement in cosmological constraining power. For a Flat$\Lambda$CDM model, we find $\Omega_M=0.334\pm0.018$ from SNe Ia alone. For a Flat$w_0$CDM model, we measure $w_0=-0.90\pm0.14$ from SNe Ia alone, H$_0=73.5\pm1.1$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ when including the Cepheid host distances and covariance (SH0ES), and $w_0=-0.978^{+0.024}_{-0.031}$ when combining the SN likelihood with constraints from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO); both $w_0$ values are consistent with a cosmological constant. We also present the most precise measurements to date on the evolution of dark energy in a Flat$w_0w_a$CDM universe, and measure $w_a=-0.1^{+0.9}_{-2.0}$ from Pantheon+ alone, H$_0=73.3\pm1.1$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ when including SH0ES, and $w_a=-0.65^{+0.28}_{-0.32}$ when combining Pantheon+ with CMB and BAO data. Finally, we find that systematic uncertainties in the use of SNe Ia along the distance ladder comprise less than one third of the total uncertainty in the measurement of H$_0$ and cannot explain the present "Hubble tension" between local measurements and early-Universe predictions from the cosmological model., Comment: 34 Pages, 16 Figures, 7 Tables. Published in ApJ. Comments welcome. Papers and data release here: https://pantheonplussh0es.github.io

This paper details a methodology proposed for the EVA 2021 conference data challenge. The aim of this challenge was to predict the number and size of wildfires over the contiguous US between 1993 and 2015, with more importance placed on extreme events. In the data set provided, over 14\% of both wildfire count and burnt area observations are missing; the objective of the data challenge was to estimate a range of marginal probabilities from the distribution functions of these missing observations. To enable this prediction, we make the assumption that the marginal distribution of a missing observation can be informed using non-missing data from neighbouring locations. In our method, we select spatial neighbourhoods for each missing observation and fit marginal models to non-missing observations in these regions. For the wildfire counts, we assume the compiled data sets follow a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution, while for burnt area values, we model the bulk and tail of each compiled data set using non-parametric and parametric techniques, respectively. Cross validation is used to select tuning parameters, and the resulting predictions are shown to significantly outperform the benchmark method proposed in the challenge outline. We conclude with a discussion of our modelling framework, and evaluate ways in which it could be extended., Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures

We present results from the fastsum collaboration's programme to determine the spectrum of the bottomonium system as a function of temperature. Three different methods of extracting spectral information are discussed: a Maximum Likelihood approach using a Gaussian spectral function for the ground state, the Backus Gilbert method, and the Kernel Ridge Regression machine learning procedure. We employ the fastsum anisotropic lattices with 2+1 dynamical quark flavours, with temperatures ranging from 47 to 375 MeV., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures. Presented at A Virtual Tribute to Quark Confinement and the Hadron Spectrum, August 2-6 2021, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway

We report observations from HST of Cepheids in the hosts of 42 SNe Ia used to calibrate the Hubble constant (H0). These include all suitable SNe Ia in the last 40 years at z<0.01, measured with >1000 orbits, more than doubling the sample whose size limits the precision of H0. The Cepheids are calibrated geometrically from Gaia EDR3 parallaxes, masers in N4258 (here tripling that Cepheid sample), and DEBs in the LMC. The Cepheids were measured with the same WFC3 instrument and filters (F555W, F814W, F160W) to negate zeropoint errors. We present multiple verifications of Cepheid photometry and tests of background determinations that show measurements are accurate in the presence of crowding. The SNe calibrate the mag-z relation from the new Pantheon+ compilation, accounting here for covariance between all SN data, with host properties and SN surveys matched to negate differences. We decrease the uncertainty in H0 to 1 km/s/Mpc with systematics. We present a comprehensive set of ~70 analysis variants to explore the sensitivity of H0 to selections of anchors, SN surveys, z range, variations in the analysis of dust, metallicity, form of the P-L relation, SN color, flows, sample bifurcations, and simultaneous measurement of H(z). Our baseline result from the Cepheid-SN sample is H0=73.04+-1.04 km/s/Mpc, which includes systematics and lies near the median of all analysis variants. We demonstrate consistency with measures from HST of the TRGB between SN hosts and NGC 4258 with Cepheids and together these yield 72.53+-0.99. Including high-z SN Ia we find H0=73.30+-1.04 with q0=-0.51+-0.024. We find a 5-sigma difference with H0 predicted by Planck+LCDM, with no indication this arises from measurement errors or analysis variations considered to date. The source of this now long-standing discrepancy between direct and cosmological routes to determining the Hubble constant remains unknown., Comment: 67 pages, 31 figures, replaced to match ApJ accepted version (March 2022), Table 6 distances included here, long form of photometry tables, fitting code, compact form of data, available from Github page, https://pantheonplussh0es.github.io

FLASHForward is an experimental facility at DESY dedicated to beam-driven plasma-accelerator research. The X-2 experiment aims to demonstrate acceleration with simultaneous beam-quality preservation and high energy efficiency in a compact plasma stage. We report on the completed commissioning, first experimental results, ongoing research topics, as well as plans for future upgrades., Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures; proceeding of the EPS-HEP2021 conference (Hamburg, July 26-30 2021) submitted to Proceedings of Science

Separating the components of redshift due to expansion and peculiar motion in the nearby universe ($z<0.1$) is critical for using Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) to measure the Hubble constant ($H_0$) and the equation-of-state parameter of dark energy ($w$). Here, we study the two dominant 'motions' contributing to nearby peculiar velocities: large-scale, coherent-flow (CF) motions and small-scale motions due to gravitationally associated galaxies deemed to be in a galaxy group. We use a set of 584 low-$z$ SNe from the Pantheon+ sample, and evaluate the efficacy of corrections to these motions by measuring the improvement of SN distance residuals. We study multiple methods for modeling the large and small-scale motions and show that, while group assignments and CF corrections individually contribute to small improvements in Hubble residual scatter, the greatest improvement comes from the combination of the two (relative standard deviation of the Hubble residuals, Rel. SD, improves from 0.167 to 0.157 mag). We find the optimal flow corrections derived from various local density maps significantly reduce Hubble residuals while raising $H_0$ by $\sim0.4$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ as compared to using CMB redshifts, disfavoring the hypothesis that unrecognized local structure could resolve the Hubble tension. We estimate that the systematic uncertainties in cosmological parameters after optimally correcting redshifts are 0.06-0.11 km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ in $H_0$ and 0.02-0.03 in $w$ which are smaller than the statistical uncertainties for these measurements: 1.5 km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for $H_0$ and 0.04 for $w$., Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures. Accepted by ApJ

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has driven researchers from different spectrum to develop novel solutions that can improve detection and understanding of SARS-CoV-2 virus. In this article we propose the use of Intelligent Reflector Surface (IRS) emitting terahertz signals to detect airborne respiratory aerosol cloud that are secreted from people. Our proposed approach makes use of future IRS infrastructure to extend beyond communication functionality by adding environmental scanning for aerosol clouds. Simulations have also been conducted to analyze the accuracy of aerosol cloud detection based on a signal scanning and path optimization algorithm. Utilizing IRS for detecting respiratory aerosol cloud can lead to new added value of telecommunication infrastructures for sensor monitoring data that can be used for public health., Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures. This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication

Precise characterization and tailoring of the spatial and temporal evolution of plasma density within plasma sources is critical for realizing high-quality accelerated beams in plasma wakefield accelerators. The simultaneous use of two independent diagnostic techniques allowed the temporally and spatially resolved detection of plasma density with unprecedented sensitivity and enabled the characterization of the plasma temperature at local thermodynamic equilibrium in discharge capillaries. A common-path two-color laser interferometer for obtaining the average plasma density with a sensitivity of $2\times 10^{15}$ cm$^{-2}$ was developed together with a plasma emission spectrometer for analyzing spectral line broadening profiles with a resolution of $5\times 10^{15}$ cm$^{-3}$. Both diagnostics show good agreement when applying the spectral line broadening analysis methodology of Gigosos and Carde{\~n}oso. Measured longitudinally resolved plasma density profiles exhibit a clear temporal evolution from an initial flat-top to a Gaussian-like shape in the first microseconds as material is ejected out from the capillary, deviating from the often-desired flat-top profile. For plasma with densities of 0.5-$2.5\times 10^{17}$ cm$^{-3}$, temperatures of 1-7 eV were indirectly measured. These measurements pave the way for highly detailed parameter tuning in plasma sources for particle accelerators and beam optics., Comment: 8 pages, 8 figures, submitted to "Review of Scientific Instruments" (AIP)

This paper describes the utilization of beam-driven plasma wakefield acceleration to implement a high-quality plasma cathode via density-downramp injection in a short injector stage at the FLASHForward facility at DESY. Electron beams with charge of up to 105 pC and energy spread of a few percent were accelerated by a tunable effective accelerating field of up to 2.7 GV/m. The plasma cathode was operated drift-free with very high injection efficiency. Sources of jitter, the emittance and divergence of the resulting beam were investigated and modeled, as were strategies for performance improvements that would further increase the wide-ranging applications for a plasma cathode with the demonstrated operational stability, Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures

The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) and Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control charts have been used in profile monitoring to track drift shifts that occur in a monitored process. We construct Bayesian EWMA and Bayesian CUSUM charts informed by posterior and posterior predictive distributions using different loss functions, prior distributions, and likelihood distributions. A simulation study is performed, and the performance of the charts are evaluated via average run length (ARL), standard deviation of the run length (SDRL), average time to signal (ATS), and standard deviation of time to signal (SDTS). A sensitivity analysis is conducted using choices for the smoothing parameter, out-of-control shift size, and hyper-parameters of the distribution. Based on obtained results, we provide recommendations for use of the Bayesian EWMA and Bayesian CUSUM control charts., Comment: 19 pages, 5 tables, 35 equations, presented at Joint Statistical Meeting (08/2020)

Beam-driven plasma-wakefield acceleration based on external injection has the potential to significantly reduce the size of future accelerators. Stability and quality of the acceleration process substantially depends on the incoming bunch parameters. Precise control of the current profile is essential for optimising energy-transfer efficiency and preserving energy spread. At the FLASHForward facility, driver--witness bunch pairs of adjustable bunch length and separation are generated by a set of collimators in a dispersive section, which enables fs-level control of the longitudinal bunch profile. The design of the collimator apparatus and its commissioning is presented., Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, to be published in the proceedings of the 4th European Advanced Accelerator Concepts Workshop, 15-21 September 2019, La Biodola Bay, Isola d'Elba, Italy

Event time models predict occurrence times of an event of interest based on known features. Recent work has demonstrated that neural networks achieve state-of-the-art event time predictions in a variety of settings. However, standard event time models suppose that the event occurs, eventually, in all cases. Consequently, no distinction is made between a) the probability of event occurrence, and b) the predicted time of occurrence. This distinction is critical when predicting medical diagnoses, equipment defects, social media posts, and other events that or may not occur, and for which the features affecting a) may be different from those affecting b). In this work, we develop a conditional event time model that distinguishes between these components, implement it as a neural network with a binary stochastic layer representing finite event occurrence, and show how it may be learned from right-censored event times via maximum likelihood estimation. Results demonstrate superior event occurrence and event time predictions on synthetic data, medical events (MIMIC-III), and social media posts (Reddit), comprising 21 total prediction tasks.

Matching to small beta functions is required to preserve emittance in plasma accelerators. The plasma wake provides strong focusing fields, which typically require beta functions on the mm-scale, comparable to those found in the final focusing of a linear collider. Such beams can be time consuming to experimentally produce and diagnose. We present a simple, fast, and noninvasive method to measure Twiss parameters in a linac using two beam position monitors only, relying on the similarity of the beam phase space and the jitter phase space. By benchmarking against conventional quadrupole scans, the viability of this technique was experimentally demonstrated at the FLASHForward plasma-accelerator facility., Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures

We present a method to generate directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) using deep reinforcement learning, specifically deep Q-learning. Generating graphs with specified structures is an important and challenging task in various application fields, however most current graph generation methods produce graphs with undirected edges. We demonstrate that this method is capable of generating DAGs with topology and node types satisfying specified criteria in highly sparse reward environments., Comment: Accepted to Learning and Reasoning with Graph-Structured Representations, ICML 2019 Workshop

The FLASHForward experimental facility is a high-performance test-bed for precision plasma-wakefield research, aiming to accelerate high-quality electron beams to GeV-levels in a few centimetres of ionised gas. The plasma is created by ionising gas in a gas cell either by a high-voltage discharge or a high-intensity laser pulse. The electrons to be accelerated will either be injected internally from the plasma background or externally from the FLASH superconducting RF front end. In both cases the wakefield will be driven by electron beams provided by the FLASH gun and linac modules operating with a 10 Hz macro-pulse structure, generating 1.25 GeV, 1 nC electron bunches at up to 3 MHz micro-pulse repetition rates. At full capacity, this FLASH bunch-train structure corresponds to 30 kW of average power, orders of magnitude higher than drivers available to other state-of-the-art LWFA and PWFA experiments. This high-power functionality means FLASHForward is the only plasma-wakefield facility in the world with the immediate capability to develop, explore, and benchmark high-average-power plasma-wakefield research essential for next-generation facilities. The operational parameters and technical highlights of the experiment are discussed, as well as the scientific goals and high-average-power outlook.

Commonsense reasoning is a critical AI capability, but it is difficult to construct challenging datasets that test common sense. Recent neural question answering systems, based on large pre-trained models of language, have already achieved near-human-level performance on commonsense knowledge benchmarks. These systems do not possess human-level common sense, but are able to exploit limitations of the datasets to achieve human-level scores. We introduce the CODAH dataset, an adversarially-constructed evaluation dataset for testing common sense. CODAH forms a challenging extension to the recently-proposed SWAG dataset, which tests commonsense knowledge using sentence-completion questions that describe situations observed in video. To produce a more difficult dataset, we introduce a novel procedure for question acquisition in which workers author questions designed to target weaknesses of state-of-the-art neural question answering systems. Workers are rewarded for submissions that models fail to answer correctly both before and after fine-tuning (in cross-validation). We create 2.8k questions via this procedure and evaluate the performance of multiple state-of-the-art question answering systems on our dataset. We observe a significant gap between human performance, which is 95.3%, and the performance of the best baseline accuracy of 67.5% by the BERT-Large model., Comment: 8 pages, Appeared in RepEval 2019

A/B testing refers to the statistical procedure of conducting an experiment to compare two treatments, A and B, applied to different testing subjects. It is widely used by technology companies such as Facebook, LinkedIn, and Netflix, to compare different algorithms, web-designs, and other online products and services. The subjects participating these online A/B testing experiments are users who are connected in different scales of social networks. Two connected subjects are similar in terms of their social behaviors, education and financial background, and other demographic aspects. Hence, it is only natural to assume that their reactions to the online products and services are related to their network adjacency. In this paper, we propose to use the conditional auto-regressive model to present the network structure and include the network effects in the estimation and inference of the treatment effect. A D-optimal design criterion is developed based on the proposed model. Mixed integer programming formulations are developed to obtain the D-optimal designs. The effectiveness of the proposed method is shown through numerical results with synthetic networks and real social networks., Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables

We use the largest sample to date of spectroscopic SN Ia distances and redshifts to look for evidence in the Hubble diagram of large scale outflows caused by local voids suggested to exist at z<0.15. Our sample combines data from the Pantheon sample with the Foundation survey and the most recent release of lightcurves from the Carnegie Supernova Project to create a sample of 1295 SNe over a redshift range of 0.01 20%, where the density contrast delta = Delta rho /rho) proposed in some galaxy count studies, and find no evidence of a change in the Hubble constant corresponding to a void with a sharp edge in the redshift range 0.023

A tunable plasma-based energy dechirper has been developed at FLASHForward to remove the correlated energy spread of a 681~MeV electron bunch. Through the interaction of the bunch with wakefields excited in plasma the projected energy spread was reduced from a FWHM of 1.31$\%$ to 0.33$\%$ without reducing the stability of the incoming beam. The experimental results for variable plasma density are in good agreement with analytic predictions and three-dimensional simulations. The proof-of-principle dechirping strength of $1.8$~GeV/mm/m significantly exceeds those demonstrated for competing state-of-the-art techniques and may be key to future plasma wakefield-based free-electron lasers and high energy physics facilities, where large intrinsic chirps need to be removed.

Shanks et al. (2018) arXiv:1810.02595 make two claims that they argue bring the local measurement and early Universe prediction of H0 into agreement: A) they claim that Gaia DR2 parallax measurements show the geometric calibration of the Cepheid distance scale used to measure H0 to be grossly in error and B) that we live near the middle of an enormous void, further biasing the local measurement of the Hubble constant. We show that the first claim is caused by five erroneous uses of the data: in decreasing order of importance: 1) the use of a distance indicator, main sequence fitting of cluster stars, which is unrelated to the calibration of Cepheids and therefore has no bearing on current measurements of H0; 2) the use of Gaia data for Cepheids that fully saturate the detector, producing unreliable parallaxes; 3) the use of a fixed parallax offset which is known to depend on source magnitude and color but which is derived for sources with extremely different colors and magnitudes; 4) ignoring the uncertainty in this offset; and 5) ignoring the other geometric sources of Cepheid calibration, the distance of the LMC from detached eclipsing binaries and the masers in NGC 4258, which are independent of Milky Way parallaxes. Just resolving the first two of these issues by not using unrelated or saturated data leads to no inconsistency between Gaia parallaxes and the current Cepheid distance scale. The second claim can be refuted 6) because of the increase in chi-squared that the alleged void would entail in SN measurements in the Hubble flow, and 7) because it would represent a 6 sigma fluctuation of cosmic variance between the local and globally measured expansion, requiring us to live in an exceedingly special location., Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, response to arXiv:1810.02595

We present two low-mass YSOs in IC5070 (V1490Cyg, V1706Cyg) with deep recurring eclipses., Comment: Accepted for publication by RNAAS, 2pages, 1 figure, full version with full appendix available at http://astro.kent.ac.uk/~df/papers.html

We present a novel human-aware navigation approach, where the robot learns to mimic humans to navigate safely in crowds. The presented model, referred to as DeepMoTIon, is trained with pedestrian surveillance data to predict human velocity in the environment. The robot processes LiDAR scans via the trained network to navigate to the target location. We conduct extensive experiments to assess the components of our network and prove their necessity to imitate humans. Our experiments show that DeepMoTIion outperforms all the benchmarks in terms of human imitation, achieving a 24% reduction in time series-based path deviation over the next best approach. In addition, while many other approaches often failed to reach the target, our method reached the target in 100% of the test cases while complying with social norms and ensuring human safety., Comment: 7 pages, In Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Robot and Human Interactive Communication, RO-MAN 2019

We introduce the Beam, a collaborative autonomous mobile service robot, based on SuitableTech's Beam telepresence system. We present a set of enhancements to the telepresence system, including autonomy, human awareness, increased computation and sensing capabilities, and integration with the popular Robot Operating System (ROS) framework. Together, our improvements transform the Beam into a low-cost platform for research on service robots. We examine the Beam on target search and object delivery tasks and demonstrate that the robot achieves a 100% success rate., Comment: 10 pages

A thin Hafnium film is shown to act both as an effective diffusion barrier for manganese at a thickness of 0.7 nm, and as an effective exchange coupling layer in a sandwich structure with perpendicular magnetic anisotropy. The magnetic layers are Co$_{20}$Fe$_{60}$B$_{20}$ and the low moment ferrimagnet Mn$_2$Ru$_x$Ga (MRG). The coupling changes sign at the compensation temperature of MRG and the exchange energy reaches 0.11 mJm$^{-2}$ for the thinnest Hf interlayers. Ruthenium, the usual metal of choice for coupling ferromagnetic layers in thin film heterostructures, cannot be used with the zero-moment half metal MRG because of Ru interdiffusion. Due to its large coercivity near compensation, the MRG can act as an effective source of exchange pinning.

The PIP2IT test accelerator is under construction at Fermilab. Its ion source and Low Energy Beam Transport (LEBT) in its initial (straight) configuration have been commissioned to full specification parameters. This paper introduces the LEBT design and summarizes the outcome of the commissioning activities., Comment: 11 p

A new muon beamline, muon science innovative channel (MuSIC), was set up at the Research Centre for Nuclear Physics (RCNP), Osaka University, in Osaka, Japan, using the 392 MeV proton beam impinging on a target. The production of an intense muon beam relies on the efficient capture of pions, which subsequently decay to muons, using a novel superconducting solenoid magnet system. After the pion-capture solenoid the first $36^\circ$ of the curved muon transport line was commissioned and the muon flux was measured. In order to detect muons, a target of either copper or magnesium was placed to stop muons at the end of the muon beamline. Two stations of plastic scintillators located upstream and downstream from the muon target were used to reconstruct the decay spectrum of muons. In a complementary method to detect negatively-charged muons, the X-ray spectrum yielded by muonic atoms in the target were measured in a germanium detector. Measurements, at a proton beam current of 6 pA, yielded $(10.4 \pm 2.7) \times 10^5$ muons per Watt of proton beam power ($\mu^+$ and $\mu^-$), far in excess of other facilities. At full beam power (400 W), this implies a rate of muons of $(4.2 \pm 1.1) \times 10^8$ muons s$^{-1}$, amongst the highest in the world. The number of $\mu^-$ measured was about a factor of 10 lower, again by far the most efficient muon beam produced. The set up is a prototype for future experiments requiring a high-intensity muon beam, such as a muon collider or neutrino factory, or the search for rare muon decays which would be a signature for phenomena beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. Such a muon beam can also be used in other branches of physics, nuclear and condensed matter, as well as other areas of scientific research., Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. ST-Acc. Beams

The Proton Improvement Plan II (PIP-II) at Fermilab is a program of upgrades to the injection complex. At its core is the design and construction of a CW-compatible, pulsed H- superconducting RF linac. To validate the concept of the front-end of such machine, a test accelerator (a.k.a. PXIE) is under construction. It includes a 10 mA DC, 30 KeV H- ion source, a 2 m-long Low Energy Beam Transport (LEBT), a 2.1 MeV CW RFQ, followed by a Medium Energy Beam Transport (MEBT) that feeds the first of 2 cryomodules increasing the beam energy to ~25 MeV, and a High Energy Beam Transport section (HEBT) that takes the beam to a dump. The ion source and LEBT, which includes 3 solenoids, several clearing electrodes/collimators and a chopping system, have been built, installed, and commissioned to full specification parameters. This report presents the outcome of our commissioning activities, including phase-space measurements at the end of the beam line under various neutralization schemes obtained by changing the electrodes' biases and chopper parameters., Comment: 3 pp