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This paper develops models for hurricane exposure, fragility curve-based damage to electrical transmission grid components and power generating stations using Monte-Carlo simulation, and restoration cost to predict resiliency factors including power generation capacity lost and the restoration cost for electrical transmission grid and power generation system damages. Synthetic grid data are used to model the Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electrical grid. A case study is developed based on Hurricane Harvey. This work is extended to evaluate the changes to resiliency as the percentage of renewable sources is increased from 2017 levels to levels corresponding to the NREL Futures Study 2050 Texas scenarios for 50% and 80% renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A two-stage method is proposed for electricity price forecasting. • The method diversifies the data resources improve the forecasting accuracy. • The method is tested using the real-world data of Texas electricity market. • Causal relationship combined with physical models guarantee better results. • Deep neural networks show a great performance in electricity price forecasting. Over the years, the growing penetration of renewable energy into the electricity market has resulted in a significant change in the electricity market price. This change makes the existing forecasting method prone to error, decreasing the economic benefits. Hence, more precise forecasting methods need to be developed. This paper starts with a survey and benchmark of existing machine learning approaches for forecasting the real-time market (RTM) price. While these methods provide sufficient modeling capability via supervised learning, their accuracy is still limited due to the single data source, e.g., historical price information only. In this paper, a novel two-stage supervised learning approach is proposed by diversifying the data sources such as highly correlated power data. This idea is inspired by the recent load forecasting methods that have shown extremely well performances. Specifically, the proposed two-stage method, namely the rerouted method, learns two types of mapping rules. The first one is the mapping between the historical wind power and the historical price. The second is the forecasting rule for wind generation. Based on the two rules, we forecast the price via the forecasted generation and the first learned mapping between power and price. Additionally, we observed that it is not the more training data the better, leading to our validation steps to quantify the best training intervals for different datasets. We conduct comparisons of numerical results between existing methods and the proposed methods based on datasets from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). For each machine learning step, we examine different learning methods, such as polynomial regression, support vector regression, neural network, and deep neural network. The results show that the proposed method is significantly better than existing approaches when renewables are involved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the impediments to large-scale use of wind generation within power systems is its nondispatchability and variable and uncertain real-time availability. Operating constraints on conventional generators such as minimum generation points, forbidden zones, and ramping limits as well as system constraints such as power flow limits and ancillary service requirements may force a system operator to curtail wind generation in order to ensure feasibility. Furthermore, the pattern of wind availability and electricity demand may not allow wind generation to be fully utilized in all hours. One solution to these issues, which could reduce these inflexibilities, is the use of real-time pricing (RTP) tariffs which can both smooth-out the diurnal load pattern in order to reduce the impact of binding unit operating and system constraints on wind utilization, and allow demand to increase in response to the availability of costless wind generation. We use and analyze a detailed unit commitment model of the Texas power system with different estimates of demand elasticities to demonstrate the potential increases in wind generation from implementing RTP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]