Search

In economics, we need to forecast the present because reliable and comprehensive measures of the state of the economy are released with a substantial delay and considerable measurement error. Nowcasting exploits timely data to obtain early estimates of the state of the economy and updates these estimates continuously as new macroeconomic data are released. In this chapter, we describe how the framework used to nowcast GDP has evolved and is applied worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of statistical analysis in fair-lending compliance examinations. The authors describe a case study of an actual fair-lending examination of a large mortgage lender, demonstrating how statistical techniques can be a useful tool in focusing examiner efforts to expose illegal discrimination or exonerate an accused institution. The case also highlights the restrictions of such statistical techniques. The authors suggest that statistical analysis in conjunction with comparative file review present a fair and complete approach to enforcement of fair-lending laws. This working paper is available at the US Federal Reserve Board. You can access this site by going to www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/workingpapers.htm.

This paper examines dealer polling in the presence of noisy reporting. Many standard contracts utilize a technique known as trimmed means to protect against misreporting, whether it is for market manipulation or unintentional. The authors show that the polling problem falls within the statistical framework of robust estimation. Economical and intuitive criteria for selecting between robust valuation methods are also discussed. The method is chosen to minimize the worse case scenario arising from a false report. This working paper is available at the US Federal Reserve Board. You can access this site by going to www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/workingpapers.htm.

This paper examines developments in bootstrapping time series. The authors provide evidence that for many applications in time series econometrics, parametric methods are more accurate. Advantages over other lag order selection criteria and the need to account for lag order uncertainty in resampling are discussed. Rather than rejecting nonparametric methods, they identify directions for future improvements. They specifically show that the block size plays an important role in determining the success of the block bootstrap. They present an automatic data-based selection procedure. This working paper is available at the US Federal Reserve Board. You can access this site by going to www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/workingpapers.htm.

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has published extensive statistical information on the U.S. economy and banking industry since 1914. This information has been published in various formats, usually referred to as "statistical releases." Titles and release numbers of the publications have changed frequently. Federal Reserve Board Statistical Releases: a Publications History describes these changes; it is a convenient tool that lightens the burden of tracing the titles and release numbers by providing history in a single location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]