Search

In this paper, we derive an explicit upper bound for the Wasserstein distance between a functional of point processes and a Gaussian distribution. Using Stein's method in conjunction with Malliavin's calculus and the Poisson embedding representation, our result applies to a variety of point processes including discrete and continuous Hawkes processes. In particular, we establish an explicit convergence rate for stable continuous non-linear Hawkes processes and for discrete Hawkes processes. Finally, we obtain an upper bound in the context of nearly unstable Hawkes processes.

In this paper we develop a representation formula of Clark-Ocone type for any integrable Poisson functionals, which extends the Poisson imbedding for point processes. This representation formula differs from the classical Clark-Ocone formula on three accounts. First the representation holds with respect to the Poisson measure instead of the compensated one; second the representation holds true in L1 and not in L2; and finally contrary to the classical Clark-Ocone formula the integrand is defined as a pathwise operator and not as a L2-limiting object. We make use of Malliavin's calculus and of the pseudo-chaotic decomposition with uncompensated iteraded integrals to establish this Pseudo-Clark-Ocone representation formula and to characterize the integrand, which turns out to be a predictable integrable process., Comment: 20 pages

In this paper we fill a gap in the literature by providing exact and explicit expressions for the correlation of general Hawkes processes together with its intensity process. Our methodology relies on the Poisson imbedding representation and on recent findings on Malliavin calculus and pseudo-chaotic representation for counting processes.

We derive quantitative bounds in the Wasserstein distance for the approximation of stochastic integrals with respect to Hawkes processes by a normally distributed random variable. In the case of deterministic and non-negative integrands, our estimates involve only the third moment of integrand in addition to a variance term using a square norm of the integrand. As a consequence, we are able to observe a "third moment phenomenon" in which the vanishing of the first cumulant can lead to faster convergence rates. Our results are also applied to compound Hawkes processes, and improve on the current literature where estimates may not converge to zero in large time, or have been obtained only for specific kernels such as the exponential or Erlang kernels.

We introduce and study an alternative form of the chaotic expansion for counting processes using the Poisson imbedding representation; we name this alternative form \textit{pseudo-chaotic expansion}. As an application, we prove that the coefficients of this pseudo-chaotic expansion for any linear Hawkes process are obtained in closed form, whereas those of the usual chaotic expansion cannot be derived explicitly. Finally, we study further the structure of linear Hawkes processes by constructing an example of a process in a pseudo-chaotic form that satisfies the stochastic self-exciting intensity equation which determines a Hawkes process (in particular its expectation equals the one of a Hawkes process) but which fails to be a counting process.

In this paper, following Nourdin-Peccati's methodology, we combine the Malliavin calculus and Stein's method to provide general bounds on the Wasserstein distance between functionals of a compound Hawkes process and a given Gaussian density. To achieve this, we rely on the Poisson embedding representation of an Hawkes process to provide a Malliavin calculus for the Hawkes processes, and more generally for compound Hawkes processes. As an application, we close a gap in the literature by providing the first Berry-Ess\'een bounds associated to Central Limit Theorems for the compound Hawkes process.

In this paper we provide an expansion formula for Hawkes processes which involves the addition of jumps at deterministic times to the Hawkes process in the spirit of the well-known integration by parts formula (or more precisely the Mecke formula) for Poisson functional. Our approach allows us to provide an expansion of the premium of a class of cyber insurance derivatives (such as reinsurance contracts including generalized Stop-Loss contracts) or risk management instruments (like Expected Shortfall) in terms of so-called shifted Hawkes processes. From the actuarial point of view, these processes can be seen as "stressed" scenarios. Our expansion formula for Hawkes processes enables us to provide lower and upper bounds on the premium (or the risk evaluation) of such cyber contracts and to quantify the surplus of premium compared to the standard modeling with a homogenous Poisson process.

We investigate Weierstrass functions with roughness parameter $\gamma$ that are H\"older continuous with coefficient $H={\log\gamma}/{\log \frac12}.$ Analytical access is provided by an embedding into a dynamical system related to the baker transform where the graphs of the functions are identified as their global attractors. They possess stable manifolds hosting Sinai-Bowen-Ruelle (SBR) measures. We systematically exploit a telescoping property of associated measures to give an alternative proof of the absolute continuity of the SBR measure for large enough $\gamma$ with square-integrable density. Telescoping allows a macroscopic argument using the transversality of the flow related to the mapping describing the stable manifold. The smoothness of the SBR measure can be used to compute the Hausdorff dimension of the graphs of the original Weierstrass functions and investigate their local times., Comment: 29 pages, 11 Figures, 1 table

In this paper we provide an It{\^o}-Tanaka-Wentzell trick in a non semimartingale context. We apply this result to the study of a fractional SDE with irregular drift coefficient.

In this paper we provide an alternative framework to tackle the first-best Principal-Agent problem under CARA utilities. This framework leads to both a proof of existence and uniqueness of the solution to the Risk-Sharing problem under very general assumptions on the underlying contract space. Our analysis relies on an optimal decomposition of the expected utility of the Principal in terms of the reservation utility of the Agent and works both in a discrete time and continuous time setting. As a by-product this approach provides a novel way of characterizing the optimal contract in the CARA setting, which is as an alternative to the widely used Lagrangian method, and some analysis of the optimum.

In this paper, we investigate a stochastic Hardy-Littlewood-Sobolev inequality. Due to the stochastic nature of the inequality, the relation between the exponents of intgrability is modified. This modification can be understood as a regularization by noise phenomenon. As a direct application, we derive Strichartz estimates for the white noise dispersion which enables us to address a conjecture from [3].

In this paper we provide a valuation formula for different classes of actuarial and financial contracts which depend on a general loss process, by using the Malliavin calculus. In analogy with the celebrated Black-Scholes formula, we aim at expressing the expected cash flow in terms of a building block. The former is related to the loss process which is a cumulated sum indexed by a doubly stochastic Poisson process of claims allowed to be dependent on the intensity and the jump times of the counting process. For example, in the context of Stop-Loss contracts the building block is given by the distribution function of the terminal cumulated loss, taken at the Value at Risk when computing the Expected Shortfall risk measure.

In this paper we address an open question formulated in [17]. That is, we extend the It{\^o}-Tanaka trick, which links the time-average of a deterministic function f depending on a stochastic process X and F the solution of the Fokker-Planck equation associated to X, to random mappings f. To this end we provide new results on a class of adpated and non-adapted Fokker-Planck SPDEs and BSPDEs.

In this paper we study a utility maximization problem with random horizon and reduce it to the analysis of a specific BSDE, which we call BSDE with singular coefficients, when the support of the default time is assumed to be bounded. We prove existence and uniqueness of the solution for the equation under interest. Our results are illustrated by numerical simulations.

In this paper, we provide a strong formulation of the stochastic G{\^a}teaux differentiability in order to study the sharpness of a new characterization, introduced in [6], of the Malliavin-Sobolev spaces. We also give a new internal structure of these spaces in the sense of sets inclusion.

We prove functional central and non-central limit theorems for generalized variations of the anisotropic $d$-parameter fractional Brownian sheet (fBs) for any natural number $d$. Whether the central or the non-central limit theorem applies depends on the Hermite rank of the variation functional and on the smallest component of the Hurst parameter vector of the fBs. The limiting process in the former result is another fBs, independent of the original fBs, whereas the limit given by the latter result is an Hermite sheet, which is driven by the same white noise as the original fBs. As an application, we derive functional limit theorems for power variations of the fBs and discuss what is a proper way to interpolate them to ensure functional convergence., Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/15-BEJ707 in the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm)

In this paper we provide new conditions for the Malliavin differentiability of solutions of Lipschitz or quadratic BSDEs. Our results rely on the interpretation of the Malliavin derivative as a G{\^a}teaux derivative in the directions of the Cameron-Martin space. Incidentally, we provide a new formulation for the characterization of the Malliavin-Sobolev type spaces $D^{1,p}$ ., Comment: 34 pages

In this paper, we study the existence of densities (with respect to the Lebesgue measure) for marginal laws of the solution $(Y,Z)$ to a quadratic growth BSDE. Using the (by now) well-established connection between these equations and their associated semi-linear PDEs, together with the Nourdin-Viens formula, we provide estimates on these densities.

In this Note we study a class of BSDEs which admits a particular singularity in their driver. More precisely, we assume that the driver is not integrable and degenerates when approaching to the terminal time of the equation., Comment: To appear in "Arbitrage, Credit and Informational Risks", Proceedings of the Sino-French Research Program in Financial Mathematics Conference, Beijing June 2013

The paper analyzes risk assessment for cash flows in continuous time using the notion of convex risk measures for processes. By combining a decomposition result for optional measures, and a dual representation of a convex risk measure for bounded \cd processes, we show that this framework provides a systematic approach to the both issues of model ambiguity, and uncertainty about the time value of money. We also establish a link between risk measures for processes and BSDEs.

We introduce a new class of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations in which the $T$-terminal value $Y_{T}$ of the solution $(Y,Z)$ is not fixed as a random variable, but only satisfies a weak constraint of the form $E[\Psi(Y_{T})]\ge m$, for some (possibly random) non-decreasing map $\Psi$ and some threshold $m$. We name them \textit{BSDEs with weak terminal condition} and obtain a representation of the minimal time $t$-values $Y_{t}$ such that $(Y,Z)$ is a supersolution of the BSDE with weak terminal condition. It provides a non-Markovian BSDE formulation of the PDE characterization obtained for Markovian stochastic target problems under controlled loss in Bouchard, Elie and Touzi \cite{BoElTo09}. We then study the main properties of this minimal value. In particular, we analyze its continuity and convexity with respect to the $m$-parameter appearing in the weak terminal condition, and show how it can be related to a dual optimal control problem in Meyer form. These last properties generalize to a non Markovian framework previous results on quantile hedging and hedging under loss constraints obtained in F\"{o}llmer and Leukert \cite{FoLe99,FoLe00}, and in Bouchard, Elie and Touzi \cite{BoElTo09}.

In this paper we deal with the utility maximization problem with a general utility function. We derive a new approach in which we reduce the utility maximization problem with general utility to the study of a fully-coupled Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equation (FBSDE).

In this paper we prove that every random variable of the form $F(M_T)$ with $F:\real^d \to\real$ a Borelian map and $M$ a $d$-dimensional continuous Markov martingale with respect to a Markov filtration $\mathcal{F}$ admits an exact integral representation with respect to $M$, that is, without any orthogonal component. This representation holds true regardless any regularity assumption on $F$. We extend this result to Markovian quadratic growth BSDEs driven by $M$ and show they can be solved without an orthogonal component. To this end, we extend first existence results for such BSDEs under a general filtration and then obtain regularity properties such as differentiability for the solution process.

This paper studies the problem of optimal investment with CRRA (constant, relative risk aversion) preferences, subject to dynamic risk constraints on trading strategies. The market model considered is continuous in time and incomplete. the prices of financial assets are modeled by It\^o processes. The dynamic risk constraints, which are time and state dependent, are generated by risk measures. Optimal trading strategies are characterized by a quadratic BSDE. Within the class of \textit{time consistent distortion risk measures}, a three-fund separation result is established. Numerical results emphasize the effects of imposing risk constraints on trading.

We prove central and non-central limit theorems for the Hermite variations of the anisotropic fractional Brownian sheet $W^{\alpha, \beta}$ with Hurst parameter $(\alpha, \beta) \in (0,1)^2$. When $0<\alpha \leq 1-\frac{1}{2q}$ or $0<\beta \leq 1-\frac{1}{2q}$ a central limit theorem holds for the renormalized Hermite variations of order $q\geq 2$, while for $1-\frac{1}{2q}<\alpha, \beta < 1$ we prove that these variations satisfy a non-central limit theorem. In fact, they converge to a random variable which is the value of a two-parameter Hermite process at time $(1,1)$.

We extend the work of Delong and Imkeller (2010a,b) concerning Backward stochastic differential equations with time delayed generators (delay BSDE). We give moment and a priori estimates in general $L^p$-spaces and provide sufficient conditions for the solution of a delay BSDE to exist in $L^p$. We introduce decoupled systems of SDE and delay BSDE (delay FBSDE) and give sufficient conditions for their variational differentiability. We connect these variational derivatives to the Malliavin derivatives of delay FBSDE via the usual representation formulas. We conclude with several path regularity results, in particular we extend the classic $L^2$-path regularity to delay FBSDE., Comment: Accepted for publication in Stochastic Processes and their Applications

Let $B$ be a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H=1/6$. It is known that the symmetric Stratonovich-style Riemann sums for $\int g(B(s))\,dB(s)$ do not, in general, converge in probability. We show, however, that they do converge in law in the Skorohod space of c\`adl\`ag functions. Moreover, we show that the resulting stochastic integral satisfies a change of variable formula with a correction term that is an ordinary It\^o integral with respect to a Brownian motion that is independent of $B$., Comment: 45 pages

In this Note we consider a quadratic backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) driven by a continuous martingale $M$ and whose generator is a deterministic function. We prove (in Theorem \ref{theorem:main}) that if $M$ is a strong homogeneous Markov process and if the BSDE has the form \eqref{BSDE} then the unique solution $(Y,Z,N)$ of the BSDE is reduced to $(Y,Z)$, \textit{i.e.} the orthogonal martingale $N$ is equal to zero showing that in a Markovian setting the "usual" solution $(Y,Z)$ has not to be completed by a strongly orthogonal even if $M$ does not enjoy the martingale representation property., Comment: 6 pages

In this paper we consider a class of BSDEs with drivers of quadratic growth, on a stochastic basis generated by continuous local martingales. We first derive the Markov property of a forward--backward system (FBSDE) if the generating martingale is a strong Markov process. Then we establish the differentiability of a FBSDE with respect to the initial value of its forward component. This enables us to obtain the main result of this article, namely a representation formula for the control component of its solution. The latter is relevant in the context of securitization of random liabilities arising from exogenous risk, which are optimally hedged by investment in a given financial market with respect to exponential preferences. In a purely stochastic formulation, the control process of the backward component of the FBSDE steers the system into the random liability and describes its optimal derivative hedge by investment in the capital market, the dynamics of which is given by the forward component., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AAP769 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

We consider the nonparametric functional estimation of the drift of a Gaussian process via minimax and Bayes estimators. In this context, we construct superefficient estimators of Stein type for such drifts using the Malliavin integration by parts formula and superharmonic functionals on Gaussian space. Our results are illustrated by numerical simulations and extend the construction of James--Stein type estimators for Gaussian processes by Berger and Wolpert [J. Multivariate Anal. 13 (1983) 401--424]., Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:0805.2002

Using integration by parts on Gaussian space we construct a Stein Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the drift of Gaussian processes using their local and occupation times. By almost-sure minimization of the SURE risk of shrinkage estimators we derive an estimation and de-noising procedure for an input signal perturbed by a continuous-time Gaussian noise.

In this paper we consider the nonparametric functional estimation of the drift of Gaussian processes using Paley-Wiener and Karhunen-Lo\`eve expansions. We construct efficient estimators for the drift of such processes, and prove their minimaxity using Bayes estimators. We also construct superefficient estimators of Stein type for such drifts using the Malliavin integration by parts formula and stochastic analysis on Gaussian space, in which superharmonic functionals of the process paths play a particular role. Our results are illustrated by numerical simulations and extend the construction of James-Stein type estimators for Gaussian processes by Berger and Wolper.

We combine Stein's method with Malliavin calculus in order to obtain explicit bounds in the multidimensional normal approximation (in the Wasserstein distance) of functionals of Gaussian fields. Our results generalize and refine the main findings by Peccati and Tudor (2005), Nualart and Ortiz-Latorre (2007), Peccati (2007) and Nourdin and Peccati (2007b, 2008); in particular, they apply to approximations by means of Gaussian vectors with an arbitrary, positive definite covariance matrix. Among several examples, we provide an application to a functional version of the Breuer-Major CLT for fields subordinated to a fractional Brownian motion., Comment: 18 pages

We derive the asymptotic behavior of weighted quadratic variations of fractional Brownian motion $B$ with Hurst index $H=1/4$. This completes the only missing case in a very recent work by I. Nourdin, D. Nualart and C. A. Tudor. Moreover, as an application, we solve a recent conjecture of K. Burdzy and J. Swanson on the asymptotic behavior of the Riemann sums with alternating signs associated to $B$., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOP473 the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

In this paper we state and prove a central limit theorem for the finite-dimensional laws of the quadratic variations process of certain fractional Brownian sheets. The main tool of this article is a method developed by Nourdin and Nualart based on the Malliavin calculus., Comment: 25 pages

In this paper we give a central limit theorem for the weighted quadratic variations process of a two-parameter Brownian motion. As an application, we show that the discretized quadratic variations $\sum_{i=1}^{[n s]} \sum_{j=1}^{[n t]} | \Delta_{i,j} Y |^2$ of a two-parameter diffusion $Y=(Y_{(s,t)})_{(s,t)\in[0,1]^2}$ observed on a regular grid $G_n$ is an asymptotically normal estimator of the quadratic variation of $Y$ as $n$ goes to infinity., Comment: 29 pages

In recent years, infinite-dimensional methods have been introduced for the Gaussian channels estimation. The aim of this paper is to study the application of similar methods to Poisson channels. In particular we compute the Bayesian estimator of a Poisson channel using the likelihood ratio and the discrete Malliavin gradient. This algorithm is suitable for numerical implementation via the Monte-Carlo scheme. As an application we provide an new proof of the formula obtained recently by Guo, Shamai and Verdu\'u relating some derivatives of the input-output mutual information of a time-continuous Poisson channel and the conditional mean estimator of the input. These results are then extended to mixed Gaussian-Poisson channels., Comment: 13 pages