1. The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009
- Author
-
Fernald, John, Hall, Robert E., Stock, James H., and Watson, Mark W.
- Subjects
Labor force -- Forecasts and trends ,Recessions -- Forecasts and trends ,Economic growth -- Forecasts and trends ,Market trend/market analysis ,Banking, finance and accounting industries ,Business ,Economics - Abstract
U.S. output has expanded only slowly since the recession trough in 2009, counter to normal expectations of a rapid cyclical recovery. Removing cyclical effects reveals that the deep recession was superimposed on a sharply slowing trend in underlying growth. The slowing trend reflects two factors: slow growth of innovation and declining labor force participation. Both of these powerful adverse forces were in place before the recession and, thus, were not the result of the financial crisis or policy changes since 2009., Since the end of the severe recession of 2007-09, forecasters and policymakers have been persistently overoptimistic about the pace of future economic growth (Lansing and Pyle 2015). Despite steady improvements [...]
- Published
- 2018