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The International Society for Animal Genetics (ISAG) currently advocates for a transition towards single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers as a potential alternative for equine parentage verification. To ascertain the efficacy of this transition, it is imperative to evaluate the performance of parentage testing using SNPs in juxtaposition with short tandem repeats (STRs). As per ISAG's recommendation, we used an equine genotyping‐by‐sequencing panel with 144 SNPs for this purpose. Equine parentage is currently realized using 16 microsatellites (STRs) excluding the LEX3 marker. In this study, 1074 horses were genotyped using the 144 SNPs panel, including 432 foals, 414 mares, and 228 stallions, from five different breeds: 293 Arabians, 167 Barbs, 189 Thoroughbreds, 73 Anglo‐Arabians, and 352 Arabian‐Barbs. As a result, two SNPs markers were eliminated from the panel system due to inconsistent amplification across all examined individuals leaving 142 SNPs markers for analysis. A comparative analysis between SNPs and STRs markers revealed that the mean expected heterozygosity was 0.457 for SNPs and 0.76 for STRs, while the mean observed heterozygosity stood at 0.472 for SNPs and 0.72 for STRs. Furthermore, the probability of identity was calculated to be 5.722 × 10−57 for SNPs and 1.25 × 10−15 for STRs markers. In alignment with the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium in polyploids test, 110 out of the total SNPs were consistent with the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium in polyploids test (p > 0.05). Employing both SNPs and STRs markers, the mean polymorphic information content was discerned to be 0.351 for SNPs and 0.72 for STRs. The cumulative exclusion probabilities for SNP markers exceeded 99.99%, indicating that the 142 SNPs panel might be adequate for parentage testing. In contrast, when utilizing STRs markers, the combined average exclusion probabilities for one and both parents were determined to be 99.8% and 99.9%, respectively. Our comprehensive study underscores the potential of SNPs in equine parentage verification, especially when compared to STRs in terms of exclusion probabilities. As a corollary, the application of SNPs for parentage verification and identification can significantly contribute to the conservation initiative for the five Moroccan horse breeds. Nonetheless, further research is required to address and replace the deficient SNPs within the panel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this perspective review, we assess fundamental flaws in Darwinian evolution, including its modern versions. Fixed mutations 'explain' microevolution but not macroevolution including speciation events and the origination of all the major body plans of the Cambrian explosion. Complex, multifactorial change is required for speciation events and inevitably requires self-organization beyond what is accomplished by known mechanisms. The assembly of ribosomes and ATP synthase are specific examples. We propose their origin is a model for what is unexplained in biological evolution. Probability of evolution is modeled in Section 9 and values are absurdly improbable. Speciation and higher taxonomic changes become exponentially less probable as the number of required, genetically-based events increase. Also, the power required of the proposed selection mechanism (survival of the fittest) is nil for any biological advance requiring multiple changes, because they regularly occur in multiple generations (different genomes) and would not be selectively conserved by the concept survival of the fittest (a concept ultimately centered on the individual). Thus, survival of the fittest cannot 'explain' the origin of the millions of current and extinct species. We also focus on the inadequacies of laboratory chemistry to explain the complex, required biological self-organization seen in cells. We propose that a 'bioelectromagnetic' field/principle emerges in living cells. Synthesis by self-organization of massive molecular complexes involves biochemical responses to this emergent field/principle. There are ramifications for philosophy, science, and religion. Physics and mathematics must be more strongly integrated with biology and integration should receive dedicated funding with special emphasis for medical applications; treatment of cancer and genetic diseases are examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study seeks to identify the ontological and epistemological foundations of linguistic theory, in light of recent developments in scientific practice that takes language as its object. It requires a reconsideration of the existential concept of language and raises the issue of the existence of ontological and epistemological constants in linguistic theory. Taking into consideration the difference in the nature of linguistic sound and meaning. The approach adopted is historical and comparative, examining the major ontological and epistemological milestones. At the ontological level, the study notes that René Descartes linked the existence of language to mental existence, but the theory of relativity and statistical theory have transformed language into a virtual digital system, calling into question its ontological framework. Not to mention the fact that language is no longer merely a mental product, as evidenced by the existence of automatically generated linguistic texts. Epistemologically, the verification of linguistic knowledge has evolved, moving from logical proof to experimentation, and is now tied to utility and added value, with the virtual simulation of artificial intelligence as the environment for experimentation and proof. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study uses numerical weather prediction models to predict the occurrence of heavy convective rainfall associated with the passage of the African Easterly Wave (AEW) during the period 23–26 August 2017 over Nigeria. Fraction skill score (FSS) and method for object‐based diagnostic evaluation (MODE) verification techniques were applied to verify how well the models predict the high‐impact event and to demonstrate how these tools can support operational forecasting. Ensemble model forecasts at a convective scale from UK Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) and a one‐way nested weather research and forecasting (WRF) model were compared with the integrated multisatellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement (IMERG GPM). The purpose is to examine skills of improved model resolution and ensemble in reproducing rainfall forecasts on useful scales and how the skill varies with spatial scale. WRF 2 and 6 km model forecasts show comparable skill at smaller grid scales. The skill of MetUM improves dramatically when the verification statistics are applied to the ensemble mean of the binary fields of the individual member forecast. The object‐based analysis reveals a similar structure as observed, although displaced eastwards. Most improvement occurred for heavier rainfall events associated with the passage of the AEW. WRF 6 km compares reasonably well with WRF 2 km in terms of shape and structure of rainfall underscoring the ability of the model to reasonably represent convection at 6 km horizontal resolution. The ensemble members in MetUM explicitly reproduce convection at 4 km resolution but are displaced at about 166 km behind observed rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, brain tumors have become one of the most common fatal diseases. Despite the existence of an important number of research studies on tumors, the proportion of research on predicting the growth of tumors remains insufficient due to the intricate nature of this research domain. Therefore, the presence of any application able to predict the growth of the tumor may have a role in eliminating the tumor by finding the appropriate treatment for it before it grows. This paper investigates tumor growth and presents a technique for tumor growth prediction based on the Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC) and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) algorithms. The design and development of this technique consists of a proposition of a stochastic model of tumor progression. This is followed by an extension of the mode to several cases that allow the derivation of new cases based on the study of predictive probabilities. The aim of this paper is to develop a model based on the KNN and DTMC algorithms that can classify tumors and predict the future state based on the current state of the tumor without the knowledge of the past state. In other words, all relevant information about the past and the present that would be useful in making predictions is available in the current state. In terms of performance evaluation metrics, the results show that the proposed method exceeds the existing methods with 97.65% accuracy, 71.65% specificity and 99.087% sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Avoiding loss is a crucial, adaptive guide to human behavior. While previous developmental research has primarily focused on gaining rewards, less attention has been paid to loss processing and its avoidance. In daily life, it is often unknown how likely an action will result in a loss, making the role of uncertainty in loss processing particularly important. By using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the influence of varying outcome probabilities (12%, 34%, and 67%) on brain regions implicated in loss processing (ventral striatum (VS), anterior insula (AI)) by comparing 28 adolescents (10-18 years) and 24 adults (22-32 years) during the anticipation of potential monetary loss. Overall, results revealed slower RTs in adolescents compared to adults with both groups being faster in the experimental (monetary condition) vs. control trials (verbal condition). Fastest RTs were observed for the 67% outcome probability in both age groups. An age group outcome probability interaction effect revealed the greatest differences between the groups for the 12% vs. the 67% outcome probability. Neurally, both age groups demonstrated a higher percent signal change in the VS and AI during the anticipation of potential monetary loss versus the verbal condition. However, adults demonstrated an even greater activation of VS and AI than adolescents during the anticipation of potential monetary loss, but not during the verbal condition. This may indicate that adolescents differ from adults regarding their experience of avoiding losing monetary rewards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a study based on evaluating different techniques to automatically recognize the basic emotions of people with Down syndrome, such as anger, happiness, sadness, surprise, and neutrality, as well as the statistical analysis of the Facial Action Coding System, determine the symmetry of the Action Units present in each emotion, identify the facial features that represent this group of people. First, a dataset of images of faces of people with Down syndrome classified according to their emotions is built. Then, the characteristics of facial micro-expressions (Action Units) present in the feelings of the target group through statistical analysis are evaluated. This analysis uses the intensity values of the most representative exclusive action units to classify people's emotions. Subsequently, the collected dataset was evaluated using machine learning and deep learning techniques to recognize emotions. In the beginning, different supervised learning techniques were used, with the Support Vector Machine technique obtaining the best precision with a value of 66.20%. In the case of deep learning methods, the mini-Xception convolutional neural network was used to recognize people's emotions with typical development, obtaining an accuracy of 74.8%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing micro and macro-aided decision-making processes across various sectors and disciplines worldwide. This paper uses the probability technique to theoretically forecast AI-aided integration program potential to offer accelerated, concrete and individualized integration support for new and 'old' resident immigrants throughout their stay in Finland. The algorithms are base on various taxonomies and topologies for individualized self-paced, life-long situation-specific integration support. This action research article theoretically reviews two high-quality peer-reviewed publications on AI in aging through systematic reviews and meta-analyses, combining results from multiple impact evaluation studies to construct arguments and draw conclusions for the use of AI in accelerating new migrants' integration in Finland. Data is analyzed qualitatively and quantitively to deduce realistic predictions. This article uses grounded theory to test theories that underscore the role and impact of AI in accelerating integration. This article presents the foundation on which future integration programs will be implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major hypothesis about conditionals is the Equation in which the probability of a conditional equals the corresponding conditional probability: p(if A then C) = p(C|A). Probabilistic theories often treat it as axiomatic, whereas it follows from the meanings of conditionals in the theory of mental models. In this theory, intuitive models (system 1) do not represent what is false, and so produce errors in estimates of p(if A then C), yielding instead p(A & C). Deliberative models (system 2) are normative, and yield the proportion of cases of A in which C holds, i.e., the Equation. Intuitive estimates of the probability of a conditional about unique events: If covid-19 disappears in the USA, then Biden will run for a second term, together with those of each of its clauses, are liable to yield joint probability distributions that sum to over 100%. The error, which is inconsistent with the probability calculus, is massive when participants estimate the joint probabilities of conditionals with each of the different possibilities to which they refer. This result and others under review corroborate the model theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The notion focus affinity refers to the likelihood that a grammatical role (e.g., subject, object) is the narrow focus of a sentence. There is evidence that such differences exist at the level of distributional data. For example, subjects are less often focal and more often topical as compared to direct objects. However, it is not obvious whether focus affinity is genuinely related to grammatical roles. Focus affinity could be an epiphenomenon of various other linguistic and pragmatic processes or their interactions (e.g., direct objects are more often indefinite, less often animate, more often new than subjects). In our controlled experimental study, we investigate the focus affinity of three adjunct types (instruments, locatives, depictive secondary predicates) in Spanish and provide evidence that these grammatical roles indeed differ with respect to focus affinity. Depictives show the highest degree of focus affinity, followed by instruments and finally locatives. These effects are robust and stable even if we account for a number of possible alternative explanations. Thus, we suggest that focus affinity is a property sufficiently closely associated with grammatical roles to justify more attention both in theoretical linguistic and psycholinguistic literature. • Focus affinity is an understudied information structural concept. • Focus affinities of three adjunct types have been experimentally investigated. • Focus hierarchy: Depictives > Instruments > Locatives. • Differences between grammatical roles are robust even if we consider alternative explanations (e.g., probabilities). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methods for group comparisons using predicted probabilities and marginal effects on probabilities are developed for regression models for binary outcomes. Unlike approaches based on the comparison of regression coefficients across groups, the methods we propose are unaffected by the scalar identification of the coefficients and are expressed in the natural metric of the outcome probability. While we develop our approach using binary logit with two groups, we consider how our interpretive framework can be used with a broad class of regression models and can be extended to any number of groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering that prehistoric cultures may have had the socio-religious need and technical ability to create accurate geometric patterns across a large landscape, limited ethnographic and archaeologic evidence are reviewed. Simple but accurate land surveying is discussed. Since any set of existing sites at larger scales coincidentally creates accurate three-point alignments and right-angles, the critical research problem attempts to distinguish designed from random geometry. Unpublished patterns involving great kivas in Chaco Canyon and Temple IV at Tikal are tested for probabilities of design. The more expansive third test considers the location of 26 prominent Adena mounds in relation to 32 river confluence points and four highest mountains in a geographic area some 900 × 1200 km, just slightly larger than a Chacoan world. In 14 test boxes modeling the locations of the 26 mounds, 1000 sets of random points replace equal numbers in each box. Each set is searched for numbers of three-point alignments and ninety-degree angles at or under 0.10º accuracy. Chaco and Tikal tests show a strong likelihood of design at these sites; in the Adena, data indicate a high probability that some number of existing patterns were intentionally surveyed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concepts like the 100‐year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods (i.e., flows of a given exceedance probability in each year); (b) the return periods of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods, as assessed in 1970 (i.e., flows of a fixed magnitude); and (c) corresponding flood probabilities. Empirically, we find the 20‐/50‐year floods have mostly increased in temperate climate zones, but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, 100‐year floods have mostly decreased in arid/temperate zones and exhibit mixed trends in cold zones, but results are influenced by the small number of stations with long records, and highlight the need for continued updating of hazard assessments. Plain Language Summary: Here, we provide the first global examination of recent changes in the size, frequency, and probability of extreme river floods using historical river records. Since the 1970s, the 20‐year and 50‐year extreme river floods have mostly increased in temperate zones but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, the 100‐year floods have decreased in arid and temperate zones, and show mixed results in cold zones, but at a smaller sample of sites with long records. Descriptions of changes in extreme flooding depend largely on site selection, and are constrained by availability of long‐term data. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of regularly updating flood hazard assessments under nonstationarity. Key Points: We provide the first global nonstationary assessment of changes in the magnitude, return period, and probability of observed extreme floodsWe find increasing 20‐year and 50‐year floods in temperate climate zones but mostly decreases in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zonesFor the 100‐year floods, at a smaller sample of sites, we find decreases in arid and temperate zones and mixed results elsewhere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To predict the accuracy percentage of At - risk students based on High withdrawal and Failure rate. Materials and methods: Logistic Regression with sample size = 20 and Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with sample size = 20 was iterated different times for predicting accuracy percentage of At - risk students. The Novel sigmoid function used in Logistic Regression maps prediction to probabilities which helps to improve the prediction of accuracy percentage. Results and Discussion: Logistic Regression has significantly better accuracy (94.48 %) compared to GLM accuracy (92.76 %). There was a statistical significance between Logistic regression and GLM (p=0.000) (p<0.05). Conclusion: Logistic Regression with Novel Sigmoid function helps in predicting with more accuracy percentage of At - risk students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is devoted to analysis of emergent properties of the system of binary oppositions in the genetic code ensemble. The epochal model of the double helix of DNA by Watson and Crick showed that the multiple reproduction of genetic information on DNA strands uses the ancient principle "like begets like" based on the simple complementarity in pairs of nucleobases. Each of these pairs is built on the binary opposition "purine-pyrimidine". But the system of DNA n -plet alphabets and genetic coding is much richer in types of binary oppositions, which also have some coding meanings related to this principle. The article contains the results of the application of the author's "method of hierarchy binary stochastics" (HBS-method) to the analysis of the quasi-stochastic organization of binary sequences of hydrogen bonds in genomic single-stranded DNAs. This analysis revealed hidden probability rules related to dichotomous fractal-like probability trees. The relationship between inherited bodily dichotomies in living organisms and the discovered probability dichotomies in information sequences of genomic DNAs is discussed. The encoding properties of molecular binary oppositions in the DNA nucleotide system allows the algorithmic construction of (2 n ∗2 n )-matrices of probabilities of n -plets in these binary sequences, which are matrix representations of 2 n -dimensional hyperbolic numbers. Connections of these multidimensional numbers with some inherited physiological phenomena and deep neural networks are noted. A unified algebra-numeric certification of the DNAs of genomes and genes - based on these multidimensional numerical systems - is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to grow significantly, which calls for effective planning of charging infrastructures. While the planning of the charging infrastructure relies on an accurate charging demands, the behaviours of EVs charging are not always predictable and can be sensitive to many uncertain future environmental factors. Considering such uncertainties, this study aims to robustly and optimally determine the chargers and main switch board (MSB) capacities without violating queuing time constraints and load flow constraints. The non-parametric estimations of charging demands are derived with data-driven charging behaviour analysis considering diverse social factors, including travelling patterns, queuing, and changes of charging facilities. Then, the impacts of the EV integration are modeled by a stochastic load flow program. The samples of the stochastic load flow stipulate the conditional value-at-risk constraints for the planning of chargers and MSBs, which consider the probabilities and scenarios in a box of ambiguity with bounds. Afterwards, by limiting the frequency and severity of constraints violation, the total investment cost is minimized with a distributionally robust optimisation program. Simulation based on a real-world residential community in Singapore is carried out to testify the effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For monodomain nematic elastomers, we construct generalised elastic–nematic constitutive models combining purely elastic and neoclassical-type strain energy densities. Inspired by recent developments in stochastic elasticity, we extend these models to stochastic–elastic–nematic forms, where the model parameters are defined by spatially independent probability density functions at a continuum level. To investigate the behaviour of these systems and demonstrate the effects of the probabilistic parameters, we focus on the classical problem of shear striping in a stretched nematic elastomer for which the solution is given explicitly. We find that, unlike the neoclassical case, where the inhomogeneous deformation occurs within a universal interval that is independent of the elastic modulus, for the elastic–nematic models, the critical interval depends on the material parameters. For the stochastic extension, the bounds of this interval are probabilistic, and the homogeneous and inhomogeneous states compete, in the sense that both have a a given probability to occur. We refer to the inhomogeneous pattern within this interval as 'likely striping'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mental model theory postulates that the meanings of conditionals are based on possibilities. Indicative conditionals—such as "If he is injured tomorrow, then he will take some leave"—have a factual interpretation that can be paraphrased as It is possible, and remains so, that he is injured tomorrow, and in that case certain that he takes some leave. Subjunctive conditionals, such as, "If he were injured tomorrow, then he would take some leave," have a prefactual interpretation that has the same paraphrase. But when context makes clear that his injury will not occur, the subjunctive has a counterfactual paraphrase, with the first clause: It was once possible, but does not remain so, that he will be injured tomorrow. Three experiments corroborated these predictions for participants' selections of paraphrases in their native Spanish, for epistemic and deontic conditionals, for those referring to past and to future events, and for those with then clauses referring to what may or must happen. These results are contrary to normal modal logics. They are also contrary to theories based on probabilities, which are inapplicable to deontic conditionals, such as, "If you have a ticket, then you must enter the show." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decisions concerning proof of facts in criminal law must be rational because of what is at stake, but the decision‐making process must also be cognitively feasible because of cognitive limitations, and it must obey the relevant legal–procedural constraints. In this topic three approaches to rational reasoning about evidence in criminal law are compared in light of these demands: arguments, probabilities, and scenarios. This is done in six case studies in which different authors analyze a manslaughter case from different theoretical perspectives, plus four commentaries on these case studies. The aim of this topic is to obtain more insight into how the different approaches can be applied in a legal context. This will advance the discussion on rational reasoning about evidence in law and will contribute more widely to cognitive science on a number of topics, including the value of probabilistic accounts of cognition and the problem of dealing with cognitive biases in reasoning under uncertainty in practical contexts. In criminal law, decision‐making concerning proof of facts must not only be rational but also cognitively feasible, and must obey legal‐procedural constraints. This topic compares three approaches focusing respectively on arguments, probabilities and scenarios, in light of these demands. It contains six case studies in which the same manslaughter case is analyzed from these different perspectives. Prakken et al. introduce the topic and the case studies, and give an overview of the literature on theories of rational legal proof. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Sex is usually not estimated in skeletonized non‐adult individuals because sexual dimorphism is considered minimal before puberty. In 2017, a new approach based on the shape of the auricular surface was proposed, showing that this anatomic area of the ilium is dimorphic. This study tests the reproducibility and evaluates the accuracy of the method in a bigger sample. Materials and Methods: Thirty males and 31 females from the Lisbon Collection (1 day–18 years old) were analyzed by two researchers, one experienced, and the other without previous knowledge of the method. The sample was divided into three groups according to prepubertal and pubertal hormonal peaks (<2, 0–12, and 13–18 years old). Two metric variables (DE/AD and FI/CF ratios), two morphological features (Overall Morphology, OM and Morphology of the Retroauricular End of the Superior Demiface, MRS), and two formulae were tested based on the adequate results obtained in the original article. Results: Data shows a low interobserver error (ICC > 0.92; K > 0.74). Morphological features provide better results than the metrics (DE/AD = 77.05%; FI/CF = 73.77%; OM = 80.33%; MRS = 85.24%). The discriminant function correctly classified 86.66% of the males and the logistic regression, 83.33%. The method was equally reliable in 0–12 and 13–18 years‐old age groups and more accurate in males. The accuracy of most of the variables reached 100% for males under 2 years‐old, and the probabilities were higher than for older individuals. The percentages of correct estimations are not influenced by the age, year, and cause of death. Discussion: Despite the relatively small sample size, this study confirms the usefulness of the auricular surface for non‐adult sexual estimation, especially for those younger than 2 years old. Additional validation tests in documented individuals from other geographic regions are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By means of the Rollback Argument, this paper argues that metaphysically robust probabilities are incompatible with a kind of control which can ensure that free actions are not a matter of chance. Our main objection to those (typically agent-causal) theories which both attribute a kind of control to agents that eliminates the role of chance concerning free actions and ascribe probabilities to options of decisions is that metaphysically robust probabilities should be posited only if they can have a metaphysical explanatory role but probabilities can explain anything only if chance has a role. First, we reconstruct the Rollback Argument. Second, we criticize the standard ways of reconciling non-chancy control with metaphysically robust probabilities. Finally, we respond to those worries that are related to the thought experiment of the Rollback Argument. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: The correct interpretation of values from the quadratic deviation is useful in immunology, it is the average of the deviations; therefore, based on this, we can make decisions. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the behavior of leukocyte, total lymphocyte and CD4 values from the set theory when performing the mean square deviation, and extrapolate its utility to the clinic. MATERIAL AND METHOD: A transversal analytical study was done from January 1st to November 30th, 2018, after collecting leukocyte and total lymphocyte values from a blood count, as well as the latest CD4 values of HIV-infected patients, based on the theory of sets, we proceeded to classify by ranges of 1000 leukocytes, to form 10 ranges. Subsequently, it was classified by sets to finally perform the mean square deviation, this being the central axis of the present article. RESULTS: It was observed how the behavior of the probabilities is strongly distributed for total lymphocytes coming from the blood count and CD4 T lymphocytes in the 10 established ranges. For the AUC set, the quadratic deviations took values between 0.25 and 0.50; for the BUD set between 0.19 and 0.50, while for the set (AUC)n(BUD) the deviations were observed between 0.04 and 0.50. CONCLUSIONS: The quadratic deviation and its analysis is usually useful applied to the clinic. The behavior of the probabilities is distributed for both CD4 and general lymphocytes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In large deformations, internally pressurised elastic spherical shells and tubes may undergo a limit-point, or inflation, instability manifested by a rapid transition in which their radii suddenly increase. The possible existence of such an instability depends on the material constitutive model. Here, we revisit this problem in the context of stochastic incompressible hyperelastic materials, and ask the question: what is the probability distribution of stable radially symmetric inflation, such that the internal pressure always increases as the radial stretch increases? For the classic elastic problem, involving isotropic incompressible materials, there is a critical parameter value that strictly separates the cases where inflation instability can occur or not. By contrast, for the stochastic problem, we show that the inherent variability of the probabilistic parameters implies that there is always competition between the two cases. To illustrate this, we draw on published experimental data for rubber, and derive the probability distribution of the corresponding random shear modulus to predict the inflation responses for a spherical shell and a cylindrical tube made of a material characterised by this parameter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diagnostic reasoning is an important topic in medical education, and diagnostic errors are increasingly recognized as large contributors to patient morbidity and mortality. One way to improve learner understanding of the diagnostic process is to teach the concepts of Bayesian reasoning and to make these concepts practical for clinical use. Many clinician educators do not fully understand Bayesian concepts and they lack the tools to incorporate Bayesian reasoning into clinical practice and teaching. Methods: The authors developed an interactive workshop using visual models of probabilities and thresholds, clinical cases, and available smartphone apps to teach learners about Bayesian concepts. Results: Evaluations from 3 years of workshops at a national internal medicine chief resident conference showed high satisfaction, with narrative comments suggesting learners found the visual and smartphone tools useful for applying the concepts with future learners. Conclusions: Visual models, clinical cases, and smartphone apps were well received by chief residents as a way to learn and teach Bayesian reasoning. Further study will be needed to understand if these tools can improve diagnostic accuracy or patient outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem of the Rivlin cube is to determine the stability of all homogeneous equilibria of an isotropic incompressible hyperelastic body under equitriaxial dead loads. Here, we consider the stochastic version of this problem where the elastic parameters are random variables following standard probability laws. Uncertainties in these parameters may arise, for example, from inherent data variation between different batches of homogeneous samples, or from different experimental tests. As for the deterministic elastic problem, we consider the following questions: what are the likely equilibria and how does their stability depend on the material constitutive law? In addition, for the stochastic model, the problem is to derive the probability distribution of deformations, given the variability of the parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trajectory reconstruction in bloodstain pattern analysis is currently performed by assuming that blood drop trajectories are straight along directions inferred from stain inspection. Recently, several attempts have been made at reconstructing ballistic trajectories backwards, considering the effects of gravity and drag forces. Here, we propose a method to reconstruct the region of origin of impact blood spatter patterns that considers fluid dynamics and statistical uncertainties. The fluid dynamics relies on defining for each stain a range of physically possible trajectories, based on known physics of how drops deform, both in flight and upon slanted impact. Statistical uncertainties are estimated and propagated along the calculations, and a probabilistic approach is used to determine the region of origin as a volume most compatible with the backward trajectories. A publicly available data set of impact spatter patterns on a vertical wall with various impactor velocities and distances to target is used to test the model and evaluate its robustness, precision, and accuracy. Results show that the proposed method allows reconstruction of bloodletting events with distances between the wall and blood source larger than ∼1 m. The uncertainty of the method is determined, and its dependency on the distance between the blood source and the wall is characterized. Causes of error and uncertainty are discussed. The proposed method allows the consideration of stains indicating impact velocities that point downwards, which are typically not used for determining the height of the origin. Based on the proposed method, two practical recommendations on crime scene documentation are drawn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We find an inverse S-shape in stated subjective probabilities in a novel experiment. • Prelec's (1998) conditional invariant model provides the best fit. • We find a large degree of individual heterogeneity. Abstract We examine the nature of stated subjective probabilities in a complex, evolving context in which participants are not told what the actual probability is: we collect information on subjective expectations in a computerized car race game wherein participants must bet on a particular car but cannot influence the odds of winning once the race begins. In our setup, the actual probability of the good outcome (a win) can be determined based on computer simulations from any point in the process. We compare this actual probability to the subjective probability stated by participants at three different points in each of six races. In line with previous research in which participants have direct access to actual probabilities, we find that the inverse S-shaped curve relating subjective to actual probabilities is also evident in our far more complex situation, and that there is only a limited degree of learning through repeated play. We show that the model in the inverse S-shaped function family that provides the best fit to our data is Prelec's 1998 conditional invariant model. We also find that individuals who report a greater degree of ambiguity are more pessimistic and less responsive to actual changes in real probabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: What is the relation between factual conditionals: If A happened then B happened, and counterfactual conditionals: If A had happened then B would have happened? Some theorists propose quite different semantics for the two. In contrast, the theory of mental models and its computer implementation interrelates them. It postulates that both can have a priori truth values, and that the semantic bases of both are possibilities: states that are possible for factual conditionals, and that were once possible but that did not happen for counterfactual conditionals. Two experiments supported these relations. Experiment 1 showed that, like factual conditionals, certain counterfactuals are true a priori, and others are false a priori. Experiment 2 replicated this result and showed that participants selected appropriate paraphrases, referring, respectively, to real and to counterfactual possibilities, for the two sorts of conditional. These results are contrary to alternative accounts of conditionals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Probability and chance are essential concepts, not just in statistics but in real life. We present an adaptable activity which investigates what we mean by bias, how we can identify bias, and how we can use it to our advantage! [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergence of the classical world from the quantum substrate of our Universe is a long-standing conundrum. In this paper, I describe three insights into the transition from quantum to classical that are based on the recognition of the role of the environment. I begin with the derivation of preferred sets of states that help to define what exists--our everyday classical reality. They emerge as a result of the breaking of the unitary symmetry of the Hilbert space which happens when the unitarity of quantum evolutions encounters nonlinearities inherent in the process of amplification--of replicating information. This derivation is accomplished without the usual tools of decoherence, and accounts for the appearance of quantum jumps and the emergence of preferred pointer states consistent with those obtained via environment-induced superselection, or einselection. The pointer states obtained in this way determine what can happen--define events--without appealing to Born's Rule for probabilities. Therefore, pk = |ìk|² can now be deduced from the entanglement-assisted invariance, or envariance--a symmetry of entangled quantum states. With probabilities at hand, one also gains new insights into the foundations of quantum statistical physics. Moreover, one can now analyse the information flows responsible for decoherence. These information flows explain how the perception of objective classical reality arises from the quantum substrate: the effective amplification that they represent accounts for the objective existence of the einselected states of macroscopic quantum systems through the redundancy of pointer state records in their environment--through quantum Darwinism. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Foundations of quantum mechanics and their impact on contemporary society'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Many networks have nodes located in physical space, with links more common between closely spaced pairs of nodes. For example, the nodes could be wireless devices and links communication channels in a wireless mesh network. We describe recent work involving such networks, considering effects due to the geometry (convex, non-convex, and fractal), node distribution, distance-dependent link probability, mobility, directivity, and interference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The synthesis of iron (Fe-) group elements was different in the early Galaxy than it is today. Measurements of the relative Fe-group elemental abundances in old metal-poor stars yield information on the Galactic chemical evolution and some information on early supernovae (SNe). Improved laboratory data on transition probabilities is essential to this effort. It is also essential to understand and map the limits of standard photospheric models based on one-dimensional and local thermodynamic equilibrium approximations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Part One in this two part paper identified Monte Carlo analysis as an improved approach over traditional deterministic techno-economic methods for solar PV prosumers in deregulated markets. In this paper a novel Monte Carlo methodology is described and demonstrated through a case study for the Swedish residential sector, which includes a review of relevant market, climate, and policy conditions, their use in determining inputs, and the probabilistic results. The probability of profitability (PoP) is introduced as an indicator in conjunction with result distributions. The results show that under current policy conditions, Swedish PV investors with well positioned buildings have a 71% chance of making a 3% real return on investment, and virtually no chance of losing their original investment. Without subsidies the PoP drops to 8%. In none of the simulated cases was any of the original investment lost. The PoP is most sensitive to the capital subsidy and the uncertainty of market based, long-term support is less critical to the chances of a successful investment. Given the current market conditions, Swedish PV prosumers can expect a return on investment. The decision to install will also depend on the probability of achieving their desired profitability, which Monte Carlo analysis quantifies well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The aim of this study is to analyze the data obtained from a randomized trial on the prevention of influenza by gargling with green tea, which gave nonsignificant results based on frequentist approaches, by using Bayesian approaches. Methods: The posterior proportion, with 95% credible interval (CrI), of influenza in each group was calculated. The Bayesian index θ is the probability that a hypothesis is true. In this case, θ is the probability that the hypothesis that green tea gargling reduced influenza compared with water gargling is true. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were also performed by using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Results: The full analysis set included 747 participants. During the study period, influenza occurred in 44 participants (5.9%). The difference between the two independent binominal proportions was −0.019 (95% CrI, −0.054 to 0.015; θ = 0.87). The partial regression coefficients in the univariate analysis were −0.35 (95% CrI, −1.00 to 0.24) with use of a uniform prior and −0.34 (95% CrI, −0.96 to 0.27) with use of a Jeffreys prior. In the multivariate analysis, the values were −0.37 (95% CrI, −0.96 to 0.30) and −0.36 (95% CrI, −1.03 to 0.21), respectively. Conclusions: The difference between the two independent binominal proportions was less than 0, and θ was greater than 0.85. Therefore, green tea gargling may slightly reduce influenza compared with water gargling. This analysis suggests that green tea gargling can be an additional preventive measure for use with other pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical measures and indicates the need for additional studies to confirm the effect of green tea gargling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied the effects of probabilistic cues, i.e., of information of limited certainty, in the context of an action task (GL: grip-lift) and of a perceptual task (WP: weight perception). Normal subjects (n = 22) saw four different probabilistic visual cues, each of which announced the likely weight of an object. In the GL task, the object was grasped and lifted with a pinch grip, and the peak force rates indicated that the grip and load forces were scaled predictively according to the probabilistic information. The WP task provided the expected heaviness related to each probabilistic cue; the participants gradually adjusted the object's weight until its heaviness matched the expected weight for a given cue. Subjects were randomly assigned to two groups: one started with the GL task and the other one with the WP task. The four different probabilistic cues influenced weight adjustments in the WP task and peak force rates in the GL task in a similar manner. The interpretation and utilization of the probabilistic information was critically influenced by the initial task. Participants who started with the WP task classified the four probabilistic cues into four distinct categories and applied these categories to the subsequent GL task. On the other side, participants who started with the GL task applied three distinct categories to the four cues and retained this classification in the following WP task. The initial strategy, once established, determined the way how the probabilistic information was interpreted and implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Single-value failure temperatures for fire loss of electrical cable functionality have been the norm for Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessments since the publication in 2005 of NUREG/CR-6850. If the calculated exposure temperature matches or exceeds the cable failure temperature, electrical failure is always assumed; if not, no failure is assumed. While this can be relaxed somewhat if a distribution for the exposure temperature is estimated, use of a distribution on the cable failure temperature itself more readily enables such relaxation and, therefore, a more realistic assessment. This paper develops probability distributions for different generic cable types (based on insulation) using data from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission tests. Results indicate mean failure temperatures considerably higher than those used deterministically, 252°C, 421°C and 383°C, respectively for thermoplastic, thermoset and Kerite-FR. This suggests considerable relaxation from the conservatism inherent using the deterministic failure temperatures could be achieved. The paper then postulates two hypothetical distributions on the exposure temperature from applying a fire phenomenological model in a statistical way to estimate the possible relaxation using the distributed cable failure temperatures to enhance the realism of the assessment. Examples show that use of probabilistically-distributed cable failure temperatures (in conjunction with similar for exposure temperatures) can reduce the probability of electrical failure for a normally-distributed exposure temperature with a mean of 350°C and standard deviation of 58.3°C by factors of approximately three and eight for Kerite-FR and thermoset cables, respectively. The reduction would be less pronounced for thermoplastic cables, although larger reductions would be possible here as well for lower exposure temperatures (e.g., a factor of two). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pipelines are commonly considered a safe alternative for the transportation of hazardous materials. However, in case of failure, pipelines still pose major risks to the environment and to the population potentially exposed. The aim of the present work is to provide occurrence probabilities of the intermediate and final events following the accidental release of hazardous materials from pipelines. A collection of incidents and accidents occurred worldwide in connection with the use of onshore long-distance pipeline networks, has been gathered to make up a specific database for the analysis of incidents in pipelines. A qualitative and quantitative analysis of the data has allowed to develop detailed event trees for the different classes of hazardous materials, and to calculate the probability of occurrence of the final outcomes. The investigation has also aimed at identifying, for each type of release, the relationship between the final events and the causes of the pipeline failure. The results obtained represent a useful and needed starting point in Quantitative Risk Analysis of hazardous materials transportation via pipelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate measurement and a cutoff probability with inferential statistics are not wholly compatible. Fisher understood this when he developed the F test to deal with measurement variability and to make judgments on manipulations that may be worth further study. Neyman and Pearson focused on modeled distributions whose parameters were highly determined and concluded that inferential judgments following an F test could be made with accuracy because the distribution parameters were determined. Neyman and Pearson's approach in the application of statistical analyses using alpha and beta error rates has played a dominant role guiding inferential judgments, appropriately in highly determined situations and inappropriately in scientific exploration. Fisher tried to explain the different situations, but, in part due to some obscure wording, generated a long standing dispute that currently has left the importance of Fisher's p<.05 criteria not fully understood and a general endorsement of the Neyman and Pearson error rate approach. Problems were compounded with power calculations based on effect sizes following significant results entering into exploratory science. To understand in a practical sense when each approach should be used, a dimension reflecting varying levels of certainty or knowledge of population distributions is presented. The dimension provides a taxonomy of statistical situations and appropriate approaches by delineating four zones that represent how well the underlying population of interest is defined ranging from exploratory situations to highly determined populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By means of the examples of classical and Bohmian quantum mechanics, we illustrate the well-known ideas of Boltzmann as to how one gets from laws defined for the universe as a whole the dynamical relations describing the evolution of subsystems. We explain how probabilities enter into this process, what quantum and classical probabilities have in common and where exactly their difference lies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For more than 10 years, we have seen the emergence of new "probabilistic" models of learning. They clearly echo Jean Piaget's works and theories but they also claim to go further. However, references to Piaget are often quick and rarely take the time to explore the rich heritage of the Genevan's works. This article takes a closer look at their links through a systematic review of the literature. To do so, I selected, read, and compared articles and books about the probabilistic models of learning and the works of Jean Piaget dealing with similar questions. I will first present the theoretical evolutions offered by the probabilistic models of learning. Then, I will reexamine the words and works of Jean Piaget to show how he had in fact formulated and addressed similar questions at his time, from his point of view. I will finally discuss how we could question, today, Jean Piaget's works in regard to these new models, but also how these new models could be discussed with regard to Piagetian works. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To begin with, we'd like to express our appreciation to our three commentators for their thoughtful and helpful reviews. Like the founders of the subject, we believe, and our reviewers seem to agree, that structural econometrics has the potential to enable us to develop serious working models of how different economies actually operate, and also to tell us something about the changing patterns of their growth and transformation. But both we and our reviewers agree that there is a great deal wrong with the way econometrics is practiced today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Rational Econometric Man, Edward Nell and Karim Errouaki present a welcome and timely case for the view that econometrics and econometric model-building may not be the magic tools to solve all empirical questions despite what many seem to have thought they were in the 1960s. Here I examine some possible problems with econometric models that have to do with their usually taking the form of equilibrium models. Some of these problems were recognized by Trygve Haavelmo decades ago. And as Aris Spanos has recently discussed, the problems are often the result of what we say in our textbooks. Some problems have to do with what we mean by econometric parameters and others with how we use probabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To provide a mechanistic and probabilistic framework for defining the species pool based on species-specific probabilities of dispersal, environmental suitability and biotic interactions within a specific temporal extent, and to show how probabilistic species pools can help disentangle the geographical structure of different community assembly processes. Innovation Probabilistic species pools provide an improved species pool definition based on probabilities in conjunction with the associated species list, which explicitly recognize the indeterminate nature of species pool membership for a given focal unit of interest and better capture real-world complexity. Probabilistic species pools provide a quantitative assessment of how dispersal, environmental or biotic factors influence estimates of species pool composition and size for a given temporal extent. Conclusions Based on one simulated and two empirical examples we demonstrate that probabilistic species pools allow us to disentangle the geographical variation in dispersal, environmental and biotic assembly processes for species assemblages in focal units. We also show that probabilistic species pools are fully compatible with traditional definitions of species pools and are applicable over a wide range of spatial and temporal extents. Additionally they are robust to missing data and provide a quantified and transparent approach to estimating the size and composition of species pools in a mechanistic way, providing a valuable tool for studies from community ecology to macroecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The differences of the near-surface wind speed ( SWS) between the frictional wind model ( FWM) and the observation are used to reflect the impacts of land use and cover change ( LUCC) on SWS in Eastern China Plain ( ECP). Results show that LUCC makes the range of SWS narrow, which had significantly weakening effect to stronger wind than weaker wind. In addition, the decrease of probabilities for observed gentle breeze ( GB), moderate breeze ( MB), and wind speed greater than or equal to 8 m s−1 ( WSGE8) are more significant in large cities than that in small cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animals can shape their timed behaviors based on experienced probabilistic relations in a nearly optimal fashion. On the other hand, it is not clear if they adopt these timed decisions by making computations based on previously learnt task parameters (time intervals, locations, and probabilities) or if they gradually develop their decisions based on trial and error. To address this question, we tested mice in the timed-switching task, which required them to anticipate when (after a short or long delay) and at which of the two delay locations a reward would be presented. The probability of short trials differed between test groups in two experiments. Critically, we first trained mice on relevant task parameters by signaling the active trial with a discriminative stimulus and delivered the corresponding reward after the associated delay without any response requirement (without inducing switching behavior). During the test phase, both options were presented simultaneously to characterize the emergence and temporal characteristics of the switching behavior. Mice exhibited timed-switching behavior starting from the first few test trials, and their performance remained stable throughout testing in the majority of the conditions. Furthermore, as the probability of the short trial increased, mice waited longer before switching from the short to long location (experiment 1). These behavioral adjustments were in directions predicted by reward maximization. These results suggest that rather than gradually adjusting their time-dependent choice behavior, mice abruptly adopted temporal decision strategies by directly integrating their previous knowledge of task parameters into their timed behavior, supporting the model-based representational account of temporal risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]