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The article discusses the current state of the U.S. economy and whether or not a recession is imminent. While there are signs that suggest a recession could be on the horizon, such as rising unemployment and falling stock prices, the U.S. is not currently in a recession. The article emphasizes that a recession is a process, not an on-off switch, and that there is still time for the Federal Reserve to take action to prevent a downturn. The article also highlights the importance of looking at indicators used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine if a recession has begun, rather than relying on a single rule of thumb. Overall, the article suggests that while there are risks, it is not too late to prevent a recession. [Extracted from the article]

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United States is projected to account for 26.3% of the global gross domestic product (GDP) this year, the highest in almost two decades. While China's share of the world GDP has increased since 2018, it has not overtaken the U.S. as the largest economy. The U.S. has outperformed its peers in terms of economic growth, wages, and productivity. However, there are concerns about the government borrowing and deficits, which could lead to imbalances and inflation. The strong dollar and protectionist pressures are also potential challenges for the U.S. economy. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the economic policies of Presidents Biden and Trump. The authors argue that the Trump economy, before the Covid-19 pandemic, had better economic indicators such as lower inflation and higher growth in wages, GDP, and the stock market compared to the Biden economy. They also criticize Biden's climate policy, stating that it prioritizes special interests and mandates expensive green energy. The authors further criticize Biden's immigration policy, claiming that it has led to increased criminal activity and a decline in the quality of life in some U.S. cities. They conclude by highlighting the differences between the two presidents and the importance of the upcoming election. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses former national security adviser John Bolton's comments about the United Nations and his reaction to President Trump's statements about NATO. The author finds Bolton's stance on NATO confusing, as he first suggests that Trump should stop threatening NATO members with withdrawal or non-defense if they don't meet their defense spending goal of 2% of GDP, but then argues that these members should actually be spending 4% of GDP on defense. The author questions whether NATO needs less browbeating or more. [Extracted from the article]

China's leader, Xi Jinping, has shifted the country's economic priorities from growth at all costs to "high-quality development," which includes a focus on national security, political stability, and social equality. This change in direction has led to a plateauing of growth and a willingness to accept slower economic expansion in exchange for advancing these goals. However, the transition to a slower pace of growth is challenging, especially given mounting geopolitical threats and rising internal dissatisfaction. The shift in priorities has also resulted in a crackdown on the private sector and a reluctance to implement stimulus measures. While some economists support Xi's measures, others believe they will be difficult to achieve given China's debt load, unfavorable demographics, and tensions with trading partners. The uncertainty surrounding China's economic direction has led to policy paralysis and a reluctance among officials to find creative solutions to economic problems. [Extracted from the article]

A new paper argues that GDP per capita is becoming a less useful indicator of living standards and prosperity as the world ages. Instead, the authors suggest focusing on GDP per working-age adult. Japan, often cited as an example of economic stagnation, actually leads the G-7 in terms of growth per working-age adult. As many countries' working-age populations start to shrink before their overall populations, GDP per working-age adult will be a valuable guide to economic performance. Despite concerns about Japanification, Japan has still done reasonably well and has a high standard of living. [Extracted from the article]