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The notion focus affinity refers to the likelihood that a grammatical role (e.g., subject, object) is the narrow focus of a sentence. There is evidence that such differences exist at the level of distributional data. For example, subjects are less often focal and more often topical as compared to direct objects. However, it is not obvious whether focus affinity is genuinely related to grammatical roles. Focus affinity could be an epiphenomenon of various other linguistic and pragmatic processes or their interactions (e.g., direct objects are more often indefinite, less often animate, more often new than subjects). In our controlled experimental study, we investigate the focus affinity of three adjunct types (instruments, locatives, depictive secondary predicates) in Spanish and provide evidence that these grammatical roles indeed differ with respect to focus affinity. Depictives show the highest degree of focus affinity, followed by instruments and finally locatives. These effects are robust and stable even if we account for a number of possible alternative explanations. Thus, we suggest that focus affinity is a property sufficiently closely associated with grammatical roles to justify more attention both in theoretical linguistic and psycholinguistic literature. • Focus affinity is an understudied information structural concept. • Focus affinities of three adjunct types have been experimentally investigated. • Focus hierarchy: Depictives > Instruments > Locatives. • Differences between grammatical roles are robust even if we consider alternative explanations (e.g., probabilities). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methods for group comparisons using predicted probabilities and marginal effects on probabilities are developed for regression models for binary outcomes. Unlike approaches based on the comparison of regression coefficients across groups, the methods we propose are unaffected by the scalar identification of the coefficients and are expressed in the natural metric of the outcome probability. While we develop our approach using binary logit with two groups, we consider how our interpretive framework can be used with a broad class of regression models and can be extended to any number of groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mental model theory postulates that the meanings of conditionals are based on possibilities. Indicative conditionals—such as "If he is injured tomorrow, then he will take some leave"—have a factual interpretation that can be paraphrased as It is possible, and remains so, that he is injured tomorrow, and in that case certain that he takes some leave. Subjunctive conditionals, such as, "If he were injured tomorrow, then he would take some leave," have a prefactual interpretation that has the same paraphrase. But when context makes clear that his injury will not occur, the subjunctive has a counterfactual paraphrase, with the first clause: It was once possible, but does not remain so, that he will be injured tomorrow. Three experiments corroborated these predictions for participants' selections of paraphrases in their native Spanish, for epistemic and deontic conditionals, for those referring to past and to future events, and for those with then clauses referring to what may or must happen. These results are contrary to normal modal logics. They are also contrary to theories based on probabilities, which are inapplicable to deontic conditionals, such as, "If you have a ticket, then you must enter the show." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Sex is usually not estimated in skeletonized non‐adult individuals because sexual dimorphism is considered minimal before puberty. In 2017, a new approach based on the shape of the auricular surface was proposed, showing that this anatomic area of the ilium is dimorphic. This study tests the reproducibility and evaluates the accuracy of the method in a bigger sample. Materials and Methods: Thirty males and 31 females from the Lisbon Collection (1 day–18 years old) were analyzed by two researchers, one experienced, and the other without previous knowledge of the method. The sample was divided into three groups according to prepubertal and pubertal hormonal peaks (<2, 0–12, and 13–18 years old). Two metric variables (DE/AD and FI/CF ratios), two morphological features (Overall Morphology, OM and Morphology of the Retroauricular End of the Superior Demiface, MRS), and two formulae were tested based on the adequate results obtained in the original article. Results: Data shows a low interobserver error (ICC > 0.92; K > 0.74). Morphological features provide better results than the metrics (DE/AD = 77.05%; FI/CF = 73.77%; OM = 80.33%; MRS = 85.24%). The discriminant function correctly classified 86.66% of the males and the logistic regression, 83.33%. The method was equally reliable in 0–12 and 13–18 years‐old age groups and more accurate in males. The accuracy of most of the variables reached 100% for males under 2 years‐old, and the probabilities were higher than for older individuals. The percentages of correct estimations are not influenced by the age, year, and cause of death. Discussion: Despite the relatively small sample size, this study confirms the usefulness of the auricular surface for non‐adult sexual estimation, especially for those younger than 2 years old. Additional validation tests in documented individuals from other geographic regions are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trajectory reconstruction in bloodstain pattern analysis is currently performed by assuming that blood drop trajectories are straight along directions inferred from stain inspection. Recently, several attempts have been made at reconstructing ballistic trajectories backwards, considering the effects of gravity and drag forces. Here, we propose a method to reconstruct the region of origin of impact blood spatter patterns that considers fluid dynamics and statistical uncertainties. The fluid dynamics relies on defining for each stain a range of physically possible trajectories, based on known physics of how drops deform, both in flight and upon slanted impact. Statistical uncertainties are estimated and propagated along the calculations, and a probabilistic approach is used to determine the region of origin as a volume most compatible with the backward trajectories. A publicly available data set of impact spatter patterns on a vertical wall with various impactor velocities and distances to target is used to test the model and evaluate its robustness, precision, and accuracy. Results show that the proposed method allows reconstruction of bloodletting events with distances between the wall and blood source larger than ∼1 m. The uncertainty of the method is determined, and its dependency on the distance between the blood source and the wall is characterized. Causes of error and uncertainty are discussed. The proposed method allows the consideration of stains indicating impact velocities that point downwards, which are typically not used for determining the height of the origin. Based on the proposed method, two practical recommendations on crime scene documentation are drawn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We find an inverse S-shape in stated subjective probabilities in a novel experiment. • Prelec's (1998) conditional invariant model provides the best fit. • We find a large degree of individual heterogeneity. Abstract We examine the nature of stated subjective probabilities in a complex, evolving context in which participants are not told what the actual probability is: we collect information on subjective expectations in a computerized car race game wherein participants must bet on a particular car but cannot influence the odds of winning once the race begins. In our setup, the actual probability of the good outcome (a win) can be determined based on computer simulations from any point in the process. We compare this actual probability to the subjective probability stated by participants at three different points in each of six races. In line with previous research in which participants have direct access to actual probabilities, we find that the inverse S-shaped curve relating subjective to actual probabilities is also evident in our far more complex situation, and that there is only a limited degree of learning through repeated play. We show that the model in the inverse S-shaped function family that provides the best fit to our data is Prelec's 1998 conditional invariant model. We also find that individuals who report a greater degree of ambiguity are more pessimistic and less responsive to actual changes in real probabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Probability and chance are essential concepts, not just in statistics but in real life. We present an adaptable activity which investigates what we mean by bias, how we can identify bias, and how we can use it to our advantage! [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The aim of this study is to analyze the data obtained from a randomized trial on the prevention of influenza by gargling with green tea, which gave nonsignificant results based on frequentist approaches, by using Bayesian approaches. Methods: The posterior proportion, with 95% credible interval (CrI), of influenza in each group was calculated. The Bayesian index θ is the probability that a hypothesis is true. In this case, θ is the probability that the hypothesis that green tea gargling reduced influenza compared with water gargling is true. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were also performed by using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Results: The full analysis set included 747 participants. During the study period, influenza occurred in 44 participants (5.9%). The difference between the two independent binominal proportions was −0.019 (95% CrI, −0.054 to 0.015; θ = 0.87). The partial regression coefficients in the univariate analysis were −0.35 (95% CrI, −1.00 to 0.24) with use of a uniform prior and −0.34 (95% CrI, −0.96 to 0.27) with use of a Jeffreys prior. In the multivariate analysis, the values were −0.37 (95% CrI, −0.96 to 0.30) and −0.36 (95% CrI, −1.03 to 0.21), respectively. Conclusions: The difference between the two independent binominal proportions was less than 0, and θ was greater than 0.85. Therefore, green tea gargling may slightly reduce influenza compared with water gargling. This analysis suggests that green tea gargling can be an additional preventive measure for use with other pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical measures and indicates the need for additional studies to confirm the effect of green tea gargling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied the effects of probabilistic cues, i.e., of information of limited certainty, in the context of an action task (GL: grip-lift) and of a perceptual task (WP: weight perception). Normal subjects (n = 22) saw four different probabilistic visual cues, each of which announced the likely weight of an object. In the GL task, the object was grasped and lifted with a pinch grip, and the peak force rates indicated that the grip and load forces were scaled predictively according to the probabilistic information. The WP task provided the expected heaviness related to each probabilistic cue; the participants gradually adjusted the object's weight until its heaviness matched the expected weight for a given cue. Subjects were randomly assigned to two groups: one started with the GL task and the other one with the WP task. The four different probabilistic cues influenced weight adjustments in the WP task and peak force rates in the GL task in a similar manner. The interpretation and utilization of the probabilistic information was critically influenced by the initial task. Participants who started with the WP task classified the four probabilistic cues into four distinct categories and applied these categories to the subsequent GL task. On the other side, participants who started with the GL task applied three distinct categories to the four cues and retained this classification in the following WP task. The initial strategy, once established, determined the way how the probabilistic information was interpreted and implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By means of the examples of classical and Bohmian quantum mechanics, we illustrate the well-known ideas of Boltzmann as to how one gets from laws defined for the universe as a whole the dynamical relations describing the evolution of subsystems. We explain how probabilities enter into this process, what quantum and classical probabilities have in common and where exactly their difference lies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Rational Econometric Man, Edward Nell and Karim Errouaki present a welcome and timely case for the view that econometrics and econometric model-building may not be the magic tools to solve all empirical questions despite what many seem to have thought they were in the 1960s. Here I examine some possible problems with econometric models that have to do with their usually taking the form of equilibrium models. Some of these problems were recognized by Trygve Haavelmo decades ago. And as Aris Spanos has recently discussed, the problems are often the result of what we say in our textbooks. Some problems have to do with what we mean by econometric parameters and others with how we use probabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To provide a mechanistic and probabilistic framework for defining the species pool based on species-specific probabilities of dispersal, environmental suitability and biotic interactions within a specific temporal extent, and to show how probabilistic species pools can help disentangle the geographical structure of different community assembly processes. Innovation Probabilistic species pools provide an improved species pool definition based on probabilities in conjunction with the associated species list, which explicitly recognize the indeterminate nature of species pool membership for a given focal unit of interest and better capture real-world complexity. Probabilistic species pools provide a quantitative assessment of how dispersal, environmental or biotic factors influence estimates of species pool composition and size for a given temporal extent. Conclusions Based on one simulated and two empirical examples we demonstrate that probabilistic species pools allow us to disentangle the geographical variation in dispersal, environmental and biotic assembly processes for species assemblages in focal units. We also show that probabilistic species pools are fully compatible with traditional definitions of species pools and are applicable over a wide range of spatial and temporal extents. Additionally they are robust to missing data and provide a quantified and transparent approach to estimating the size and composition of species pools in a mechanistic way, providing a valuable tool for studies from community ecology to macroecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animals can shape their timed behaviors based on experienced probabilistic relations in a nearly optimal fashion. On the other hand, it is not clear if they adopt these timed decisions by making computations based on previously learnt task parameters (time intervals, locations, and probabilities) or if they gradually develop their decisions based on trial and error. To address this question, we tested mice in the timed-switching task, which required them to anticipate when (after a short or long delay) and at which of the two delay locations a reward would be presented. The probability of short trials differed between test groups in two experiments. Critically, we first trained mice on relevant task parameters by signaling the active trial with a discriminative stimulus and delivered the corresponding reward after the associated delay without any response requirement (without inducing switching behavior). During the test phase, both options were presented simultaneously to characterize the emergence and temporal characteristics of the switching behavior. Mice exhibited timed-switching behavior starting from the first few test trials, and their performance remained stable throughout testing in the majority of the conditions. Furthermore, as the probability of the short trial increased, mice waited longer before switching from the short to long location (experiment 1). These behavioral adjustments were in directions predicted by reward maximization. These results suggest that rather than gradually adjusting their time-dependent choice behavior, mice abruptly adopted temporal decision strategies by directly integrating their previous knowledge of task parameters into their timed behavior, supporting the model-based representational account of temporal risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probabilistic theories have been claimed to constitute a new paradigm for the psychology of reasoning. A key assumption of these theories is captured by what they call the Equation , the hypothesis that the meaning of the conditional is probabilistic in nature and that the probability of If p then q is the conditional probability, in such a way that P( if p then q ) = P( q | p ). Using the probabilistic truth-table task in which participants are required to evaluate the probability of If p then q sentences, the present study explored the pervasiveness of the Equation through ages (from early adolescence to adulthood), types of conditionals (basic, causal, and inducements) and contents. The results reveal that the Equation is a late developmental achievement only endorsed by a narrow majority of educated adults for certain types of conditionals depending on the content they involve. Age-related changes in evaluating the probability of all the conditionals studied closely mirror the development of truth-value judgements observed in previous studies with traditional truth-table tasks. We argue that our modified mental model theory can account for this development, and hence for the findings related with the probability task, which do not consequently support the probabilistic approach of human reasoning over alternative theories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the modelling of extreme-capability working platforms that are operated in periodic cycles, each cycle having a predefined number of operations that affect the working surfaces. A novel hypothesis is introduced about the platform-degrading effects that cause an equivalent decrease in the successful operations after repeated cycles. Deterministic modelling, based on the basic equations of Lanchester and Dinner, is generalized here to include coupling between parameters. The newly developed mathematical model of performance degradation is in good agreement with both experimental measurements and numerical simulations. It is assumed that the new variables and their correlations link the Gaussian distribution and the observed performances of the testing platforms. Relative probability dispersions of affected surfaces are derived, as a new indirect referencing figure of merit, to describe simulations and compare them to experimental test data. The model proves a hypothesis that the degrading effects are a function of the platform capacity, frequency of operations and the number of available cycles. Degradation effects are taken into account through an equivalent decrease of effective operation capacities, reflected on the properties of the affected operating surfaces. The obtained estimations of degradation could be used in the planning of platform capacity as well as in the selection of real affected surfaces in various machining systems and for a wide range of different materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mistakes in evidential reasoning can have severe consequences. Especially, errors in the use of statistics have led to serious miscarriages of justice. Fact-finders and forensic experts make errors in reasoning and fail to communicate effectively. As tools to prevent mistakes, three kinds of methods are available. Argumentative methods analyse the arguments and counterarguments that are presented in court. Narrative methods consider the construction and comparison of scenarios of what may have happened. Probabilistic methods show the connections between the probability of hypothetical events and the evidence. Each of the kinds of methods has provided useful normative maxims for good evidential reasoning. Argumentative and narrative methods are especially helpful for the analysis of qualitative information, but do not come with a formal theory that is as well-established as probability theory. In probabilistic methods, the emphasis is on numeric information, so much so that a standard criticism is that these methods require more numbers than are available. This article offers an integrating perspective on evidential reasoning, combining the strengths of each of the kinds of methods: the adversarial setting of arguments pro and con, the globally coherent perspective provided by scenarios, and the gradual uncertainty of probabilities. In the integrating perspective, arguments and scenarios are interpreted in the quantitative setting of standard probability theory. In this way, the integrated perspective provides a normative framework that bridges the communicative gap between fact-finders and forensic experts. Both qualitative and quantitative information can be used safely, focusing on what is relevant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Performance of all- India summer monsoon rainfall ( June to September) has been studied when June or July or June + July rainfall is reported as being in excess/deficit, using monthly and seasonal rainfall data for the period 1871-2010. The study shows that seasonal rainfall was above/below the long term mean in almost all the years when rainfall of June or July or June + July was in excess/deficit. The probabilities of occurrence of seasonal rainfall below the long term mean are 77, 83, and 92% respectively when June, July, and June + July rainfalls are in deficit. The years in which the rainfalls of June and July were deficit, were mostly El Niño years and their corresponding seasonal rainfalls were below the mean. The deficiencies in June/ July or June + July rainfall during El Niño years thus give an indication of seasonal rainfall being below the mean, and vice versa for La Niña years. The study has brought out an important result that rainfall during June gives a first signal of the performance of seasonal rainfall. In order to explain the relationship between June excess/deficit rainfall and seasonal above/below mean rainfall, an hypothesis is proposed which states that the circulation anomalies developed over the Indian region during an excess/deficit June persist throughout the season. The hypothesis has been proved by examining the composites of excess/deficit June wind anomalies at 850 and 200 hPa and observing their subsequent persistence from July to September. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical conditional probabilities of extreme monthly precipitation averaged over three regions of the southern part of the La Plata basin were calculated as a function of three atmospheric indices: two of them represent low level moisture convergence and the third is related to the mid tropospheric circulation over southern South America. The first region includes southern Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, north of Uruguay and the western sector of southern Brazil, the second region stretches over part of southern Brazil, while the third region, surrounding the Plata Estuary extends over western Uruguay and eastern Argentina between 37 ° S and 32 ° S. Regional monthly precipitation was considered extreme when it exceeded its mean value plus one standard deviation. Conditional empirical probabilities of Months with Extreme Precipitation ( MEP) are more than twice and even four times higher than climatic probabilities when they are calculated under the restriction that the atmospheric indices were beyond certain extreme thresholds empirically defined. Combined conditional probability is even higher when the values of two or the three indices over their respective thresholds take place at the same time, but these cases are less frequent. The index that renders higher conditional probabilities is the one that accounts for the low level moisture convergence in a region that is basically to the west and outside of the three regions. This reflects the fact that most of the mesoconvective systems, which originate to the west of these regions and then move eastwards, produce heavy precipitation that lead to monthly accumulated extremes. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Inferential statistical tests that approximate measurement are called acceptance procedures. The procedure includes type 1 error, falsely rejecting the null hypothesis, and type 2 error, failing to reject the null hypothesis when the alternative should be supported. This approach involves repeated sampling from a distribution with established parameters such that the probabilities of these errors can be ascertained. With low error probabilities the procedure has the potential to approximate measurement. How close this procedure approximates measurement was examined. Findings: A Monte Carlo procedure set the type 1 error at p = 0.05 and the type 2 error at either p = 0.20 or p = 0.10 for effect size values of d = 0.2, 0.5, and 0.8. The resultant values are approximately 15 and 6.25 % larger than the effect sizes entered into the analysis depending on a type 2 error rate of p < 0.20, or p < 0.10 respectively. Conclusions: Acceptance procedures approximate values wherein a decision could be made. In a health district a deviation at a particular level could signal a change in health. The approximations could be reasonable in some circumstances, but if more accurate measures are desired a deviation could be reduced by the percentage appropriate for the power. The tradeoff for such a procedure is an increase in type 1 error rate and a decrease in type 2 errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a critical discussion is made of the role of entailments in the so-called New Paradigm of psychology of reasoning based on Bayesian models of rationality (Elqayam & Over, 2013). It is argued that assessments of probabilistic coherence cannot stand on their own, but that they need to be integrated with empirical studies of intuitive entailment judgments. This need is motivated not just by the requirements of probability theory itself, but also by a need to enhance the interdisciplinary integration of the psychology of reasoning with formal semantics in linguistics. The constructive goal of the paper is to introduce a new experimental paradigm, called the Dialogical Entailment task, to supplement current trends in the psychology of reasoning towards investigating knowledge-rich, social reasoning under uncertainty (Oaksford & Chater, 2019). As a case study, this experimental paradigm is applied to reasoning with conditionals and negation operators (e.g. CEM and wide and narrow-scope negation). As part of the investigation, participants' entailment judgments are evaluated against their probability evaluations to assess participants' cross-task consistency over two experimental sessions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]