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Accurate methods to predict solubility from molecular structure are highly sought after in the chemical sciences. To assess the state of the art, the American Chemical Society organized a “Second Solubility Challenge” in 2019, in which competitors were invited to submit blinded predictions of the solubilities of 132 drug-like molecules. In the first part of this article, we describe the development of two models that were submitted to the Blind Challenge in 2019 but which have not previously been reported. These models were based on computationally inexpensive molecular descriptors and traditional machine learning algorithms and were trained on a relatively small data set of 300 molecules. In the second part of the article, to test the hypothesis that predictions would improve with more advanced algorithms and higher volumes of training data, we compare these original predictions with those made after the deadline using deep learning models trained on larger solubility data sets consisting of 2999 and 5697 molecules. The results show that there are several algorithms that are able to obtain near state-of-the-art performance on the solubility challenge data sets, with the best model, a graph convolutional neural network, resulting in an RMSE of 0.86 log units. Critical analysis of the models reveals systematic differences between the performance of models using certain feature sets and training data sets. The results suggest that careful selection of high quality training data from relevant regions of chemical space is critical for prediction accuracy but that other methodological issues remain problematic for machine learning solubility models, such as the difficulty in modeling complex chemical spaces from sparse training data sets.

The potential to predict solvation free energies (SFEs) in any solvent using a machine learning (ML) model based on thermodynamic output, extracted exclusively from 3D-RISM simulations in water is investigated. The models on multiple solvents take into account both the solute and solvent description and offer the possibility to predict SFEs of any solute in any solvent with root mean squared errors less than 1 kcal/mol. Validations that involve exclusion of fractions or clusters of the solutes or solvents exemplify the model’s capability to predict SFEs of novel solutes and solvents with diverse chemical profiles. In addition to being predictive, our models can identify the solute and solvent features that influence SFE predictions. Furthermore, using 3D-RISM hydration thermodynamic output to predict SFEs in any organic solvent reduces the need to run 3D-RISM simulations in all these solvents. Altogether, our multisolvent models for SFE predictions that take advantage of the solvation effects are expected to have an impact in the property prediction space.

In line with recent advances in neural drug design and sensitivity prediction, we propose a novel architecture for interpretable prediction of anticancer compound sensitivity using a multimodal attention-based convolutional encoder. Our model is based on the three key pillars of drug sensitivity: compounds’ structure in the form of a SMILES sequence, gene expression profiles of tumors, and prior knowledge on intracellular interactions from protein–protein interaction networks. We demonstrate that our multiscale convolutional attention-based encoder significantly outperforms a baseline model trained on Morgan fingerprints and a selection of encoders based on SMILES, as well as the previously reported state-of-the-art for multimodal drug sensitivity prediction (R2= 0.86 and RMSE = 0.89). Moreover, the explainability of our approach is demonstrated by a thorough analysis of the attention weights. We show that the attended genes significantly enrich apoptotic processes and that the drug attention is strongly correlated with a standard chemical structure similarity index. Finally, we report a case study of two receptor tyrosine kinase (RTK) inhibitors acting on a leukemia cell line, showcasing the ability of the model to focus on informative genes and submolecular regions of the two compounds. The demonstrated generalizability and the interpretability of our model testify to its potential for in silico prediction of anticancer compound efficacy on unseen cancer cells, positioning it as a valid solution for the development of personalized therapies as well as for the evaluation of candidate compounds in de novo drug design.

Achieving selectivity for small organic molecules toward biological targets is a main focus of drug discovery but has been proven difficult, for example, for kinases because of the high similarity of their ATP binding pockets. To support the design of more selective inhibitors with fewer side effects or with altered target profiles for improved efficacy, we developed a method combining ligand- and receptor-based information. Conventional QSAR models enable one to study the interactions of multiple ligands toward a single protein target, but in order to understand the interactions between multiple ligands and multiple proteins, we have used proteochemometrics, a multivariate statistics method that aims to combine and correlate both ligand and protein descriptions with affinity to receptors. The superimposed binding sites of 50 unique kinases were described by molecular interaction fields derived from knowledge-based potentials and Schrödinger’s WaterMap software. Eighty ligands were described by Mold2, Open Babel, and Volsurf descriptors. Partial least-squares regression including cross-terms, which describe the selectivity, was used for model building. This combination of methods allows interpretation and easy visualization of the models within the context of ligand binding pockets, which can be translated readily into the design of novel inhibitors.