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Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon1,2. Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere3,4. The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain5–7. This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections7,8. Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] (n= 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n= 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n= 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration.

Objective:Can a comprehensive, explicitly directive evidence-based guideline for all therapies that might affect the major morbidities of very low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants help a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) further improve generally favorable morbidity rates? Can Antifragility principles of provider adaptive growth from stressors, enhanced infant risk assessment and adherence to effective therapies minimize unproven treatments and reduce all morbidities?Study Design:Prospectively planned observational trial in VLBW infants: control group born October 2011 to September 2013 and study group October 2013 to September 2015. Multi-disciplinary evidence-based review assigned all NICU treatments into one of four distinct categories: (1) always employ this therapy for VLBW infants, (2) never use this therapy, (3) employ this questionable therapy thoughtfully, only in certain circumstances and (4) this therapy has insufficient evidence of efficacy and safety. Extensive staff education emphasized evidence-based potentially better practice (PBP) selection with compliance checks, appreciation of intertwined co-morbidities and prioritizing infant risk reduction strategies.Results:Control included 221 infants, mean (s.d.) age 29 (2.6) weeks, birth weight 1129 (257) g and Study included 197 infants, 29 (2.7) weeks, 1093 (292) g. One hundred and four distinct therapies were placed into categories 1 to 4, with 32 specific compliance checks. Overall mean compliance with the process checks during the second era was 70%, high: 100% (exclusive breast milk use), low: 24% (correct pulse oximetry alarm settings). Morbidity and mortality rates did not significantly change during the second era.Conclusions:In our NICU with favorable morbidity rates, an expanded effort using a comprehensive therapy guideline for VLBW infants did not further improve outcomes. We need deeper understanding of continuous quality improvement (CQI) fundamentals, therapy compliance, co-morbidity relationships and enhanced sensitivity of risk assessment. Our innovative Antifragility PBP guideline could be useful to other NICUs seeking improvement in VLBW infant morbidities, as we offer a reasoned and concise template of a broad array of therapies categorized efficiently for transparency and review, designed to enhance responsible CQI decision-making.

Significant progress has been made in our understanding of species-level responses to climate change, but upscaling to entire ecosystems remains a challenge. This task is particularly urgent in the Arctic, where global warming is most pronounced. Here we report the results of an international collaboration on the direct and indirect effects of climate on the functioning of Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. Our data from seven terrestrial food webs spread along a wide range of latitudes (∼1,500 km) and climates (Δ mean July temperature = 8.5 °C) across the circumpolar world show the effects of climate on tundra primary production, food-web structure and species interaction strength. The intensity of predation on lower trophic levels increased significantly with temperature, at approximately 4.5% per °C. Temperature also affected trophic interactions through an indirect effect on food-web structure (that is, diversity and number of interactions). Herbivore body size was a major determinant of predator–prey interactions, as interaction strength was positively related to the predator–prey size ratio, with large herbivores mostly escaping predation. There is potential for climate warming to cause a switch from bottom-up to top-down regulation of herbivores. These results are critical to resolving the debate on the regulation of tundra and other terrestrial ecosystems exposed to global change.