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Export of agricultural nutrients and sediment to lakes and oceans is of great environmental concern in many agricultural watersheds. Recent years have seen efforts to reduce loads through agricultural practices such as conservation tillage, efficient fertilization, and reservation of erodible areas. Monitoring the efficacy of such efforts is complicated by the fact they take place against a varying climatic and hydrologic background. In this study, statistical analysis was used to identify those climatic, hydrologic, and agricultural variables that best explained variations in nitrate, phosphorus, and total suspended solids over the period 1976–1995 in two large agricultural watersheds that feed Lake Erie, those of the Maumee and Sandusky Rivers. The dominant variable was stream discharge; after curvefits to remove its influence, the residual loads were tested via stepwise linear regression to reveal the most significant explanatory variables. Loads of nitrate, total suspended solids, and total phosphorus tended to decrease when previous months were wet, except in the summer, and to decrease when snow cover was extensive. It is speculated that stores of nitrate in the soil were lost during wet periods through increased crop uptake and/or leaching. Nitrogen fertilizer application in the Maumee watershed decreased following dry periods, but not enough to decrease stream loads. Soluble reactive phosphorus loads were negatively correlated to conservation tillage and reserves, and positively correlated to fertilizer and manure sources. Results for total phosphorus were similar to those for total suspended solids, on which most transported phosphorus is adsorbed.

Trends in climatic variables, streamflow, agricultural practices, and loads of nutrients and suspended solids were estimated for 1976–1995 in the Maumee and Sandusky watersheds, two large agricultural basins draining to Lake Erie. To understand the contributions that various factors may have made to the trends in loads, earlier results of models linking loads to explanatory variables were combined with estimated trends in those variables. The study period was characterized by increases in temperature, wintertime precipitation and streamflow, conservation farming, and loads of nitrate and total suspended solids; decreases in snowfall and snow cover, fertilizer, manure from livestock, and loads of soluble reactive phosphorus; and relatively steady exports of total phosphorus. After removing the effects of trends in streamflow, nitrate loads increased much less while total suspended solids and total phosphorus loads declined. The analysis suggests that the nitrate increases were due largely to climatic factors, particularly increases in winter streamflow, decreases in snowfall and snow cover, and declining annual precipitation. Decreases in soluble reactive phosphorus were associated with changes in agricultural practices, particularly declines in fertilizer deliveries and head of livestock.