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Analysis of prediction–observation residuals from the empirical ground-motion models (GMMs) used in the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM) update indicates a general underprediction of ground motions in the period range of 0.5−2s for soft sedimentary basin sites in Wellington. This study uses residual analysis to quantify this underprediction, understand the spatial distribution of these residuals and the specific conditions that cause them, and investigate options for the development of non-ergodic site-response adjustments to the GMMs. All 15 GMMs used in the NZ NSHM were evaluated, and the variability in site-response residuals between different models and different tectonic types of earthquake sources was quantified. Sites are regionalized based on different geomorphic features, such as individual basins and valleys. For example, average site terms are calculated for Te Aro, Thorndon, Miramar, Lower Hutt, Upper Hutt, and several smaller valleys. The period at which maximum underprediction occurs at these sedimentary basin and valley sites was found to correlate well with the fundamental site period of the soil profile (T0), suggesting improvements can be made to regionalized GMMs by incorporating site period into the site-response prediction for sedimentary basin sites.

This study develops a method for estimating site amplification that combines instrumentally observed site-specific amplification factors with adjustment factors from nonlinear site-response analyses. This approach provides estimates of site response for large-strain motions based on observations and sophisticated nonlinear modeling. A database of weak-to-moderate intensity ground motions recorded in three basins of Wellington, New Zealand is used to study the observed site amplification. A subset of nine strong-motion stations was selected to perform nonlinear site-response analyses with scaled strong ground motions to assess the influence of nonlinearity on site amplification factors and demonstrate the approach. Different shear-wave velocity (VS) profiles, constitutive models, and modeling approaches (e.g. one-dimensional (1D) site-response analyses vs empirical VS30-based approaches) are used to quantify the sensitivity and modeling uncertainty in the nonlinear site-response analyses. It was found that for soft sites subjected to strong ground motions, there may be a decrease in spectral acceleration amplification factors for periods up to approximately 2 s, relative to the expected linear site response. For longer periods, there is little to no amplification from the effects of soil nonlinearity. However, at stiffer sites, which generally experience less basin amplification in observations, there may be moderate amplification at longer periods when nonlinearity is considered due to softening of the soil profile. Empirical ground-motion models were found to under-represent the observed amplification between basin sites and the nearby reference site, especially at intermediate to long periods, corresponding to resonant frequencies of these basin sites. In addition, the empirical nonlinear site amplification models (VS30-based) were found to deviate from nonlinear analyses at large strains, where such models are poorly constrained due to such a limited number of observations.

This article presents a comprehensive validation of the hybrid broadband ground-motion simulation approach (via the commonly used Graves and Pitarka method) in a New Zealand context with small magnitude point source ruptures using an extensive set of 5218 ground motions recorded at 212 sites from 479 active shallow crustal earthquakes across the country. Modifications to the simulation method inferred from a previous New Zealand validation are implemented, and the improvements are explicitly quantified. Empirical ground-motion models are also considered to provide a benchmark for simulation prediction accuracy and precision. Examination of intensity measure residuals identifies that the simulation method modifications lead to reduced model prediction bias and within-event variability and provides evidence toward the use of spatially varying coefficient models for simulation parameters, such as the high-frequency Brune stress parameter. Additional biases identified include, among others, underprediction of significant durations at soft soil sites and overprediction of short-period pseudo-spectral accelerations at stiff alluvial gravel and rock sites due to low-estimated 30 m time-averaged shear-wave velocity values.

Ground motion simulation validation is an important and necessary task toward establishing the efficacy of physics-based ground motion simulations for seismic hazard analysis and earthquake engineering applications. This article presents a comprehensive validation of the commonly used Graves and Pitarka hybrid broadband ground motion simulation methodology with a recently developed three-dimensional (3D) Canterbury Velocity Model. This is done through simulation of 148 small magnitude earthquake events in the Canterbury, New Zealand, region in order to supplement prior validation efforts directed at several larger magnitude events. Recent empirical ground motion models are also considered to benchmark the simulation predictive capability, which is examined by partitioning the prediction residuals into the various components of ground motion variability. Biases identified in source, path, and site components suggest that improvements to the predictive capabilities of the simulation methodology can be made by using a longer high-frequency path duration model, reducing empirical Vs30-based low-frequency site amplification, and utilizing site-specific velocity models in the high-frequency simulations.

This study examines the performance of nonlinear total stress one-dimensional (1D) wave propagation site response analysis for modeling site effects in physics-based ground motion simulations of the 2010–2011 Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence. This approach explicitly models three-dimensional (3D) ground motion phenomena at the regional scale, and detailed site effects at the local scale. The approach is compared with a more commonly used empirical VS30-based method of computing site amplification for simulated ground motions, as well as prediction via an empirical ground motion model. Site-specific ground response analysis is performed at 20 strong motion stations in Christchurch for 11 earthquakes with 4.7≤MW≤7.1. When compared with the VS30-based approach, the wave propagation analysis reduces both overall model bias and uncertainty in site-to-site residuals at the fundamental period, and significantly reduces systematic residuals for soft or “atypical” sites that exhibit strong site amplification. The comparable performance in ground motion prediction between the physics-based simulation method and empirical ground motion models suggests the former is a viable approach for generating site-specific ground motions for geotechnical and structural response history analyses.

ABSTRACTThis paper presents a generalised velocity model construction methodology, its computational implementation, and application in the construction of a New Zealand Velocity Model (NZVM2.0) for use in physics-based broadband ground motion simulation. The methodology utilises multiple datasets spanning different length scales, which is enabled via the use of modular subregions, geologic surfaces, and parametric representations of crustal velocity. A number of efficiency-related workflows to decrease the overall computational construction time are employed, while maintaining the flexibility and extensibility to incorporate additional datasets and refined velocity parameterisations as they become available. The methodology and computational implementation processes are then applied for development of a New Zealand Velocity Model (NZVM2.0) for use in broadband ground motion simulation. The model comprises explicit representations of the Canterbury, Wellington, Nelson-Tasman, Kaikōura, Marlborough, Waiau, Hanmer and Cheviot sedimentary basins embedded within an existing regional travel-time tomography-based velocity model for the shallow crust.

ABSTRACTA 3D high-resolution model of the Quaternary geological stratigraphic sequence in the Canterbury, New Zealand region is developed utilising datasets of over 500 high-quality water well logs from a database of 29,985, and over 370 near-surface cone penetration test (CPT) records from a database of 13,670. The model, developed using geostatistical Kriging, represents the complex interbedded regional Quaternary geology by characterising the boundaries between significant interbedded geological formations as 3D surfaces. The model is examined in the form of both geological surface contour maps and vertical cross sections, where the most evident trend identified is the easterly dip caused by the dominant alluvial deposition of terrestrial sediments. The developed 3D interbedded Quaternary stratigraphy model has several applications for hydrologic modelling, earthquake-induced ground motion simulations and seismic site characterisation. For the latter case, the role of the model in constraining surface wave analysis-based shear wave velocity profiling is illustrated.

ABSTRACTThis paper discusses simulated ground motion intensity, and its underlying modelling assumptions, for great earthquakes on the Alpine Fault. The simulations utilise the latest understanding of wave propagation physics, kinematic earthquake rupture descriptions and the three-dimensional nature of the Earth's crust in the South Island of New Zealand. The effect of hypocentre location is explicitly examined, which is found to lead to significant differences in ground motion intensities (quantified in the form of peak ground velocity, PGV) over the northern half and southwest of the South Island. Comparison with previously adopted empirical ground motion models also illustrates that the simulations, which explicitly model rupture directivity and basin-generated surface waves, lead to notably larger PGV amplitudes than the empirical predictions in the northern half of the South Island and Canterbury. The simulations performed in this paper have been adopted, as one possible ground motion prediction, in the ‘Project AF8’ Civil Defence Emergency Management exercise scenario. The similarity of the modelled ground motion features with those observed in recent worldwide earthquakes as well as similar simulations in other regions, and the notably higher simulated amplitudes than those from empirical predictions, may warrant a re-examination of regional impact assessments for major Alpine Fault earthquakes.