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The recent extended minimum of solar and geomagnetic variability (XSM) mirrors the XSMs in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries: 1810–1830 and 1900–1910. Such extended minima also were evident in aurorae reported from 450 A.D. to 1450 A.D. This paper argues that these minima are consistent with minima of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycles (CGCs), a 90–100 year variation observed on the Sun, in the solar wind, at the Earth, and throughout the heliosphere. The occurrence of the recent XSM is consistent with the existence of the CGC as a quasiperiodic variation of the solar dynamo. Evidence of CGCs is provided by the multicentury sunspot record, by the almost 150 year record of indexes of geomagnetic activity (1868 to present), by 1000 years of observations of aurorae (from 450 to 1450 A.D.) and millennial records of radionuclides in ice cores. The aaindex of geomagnetic activity carries information about the two components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal and poloidal), one driven by flares and coronal mass ejections (related to the toroidal field) and the other driven by corotating interaction regions in the solar wind (related to the poloidal field). These two components systematically vary in their intensity and relative phase giving us information about centennial changes of the sources of solar dynamo during the recent CGC over the last century. The dipole and quadrupole modes of the solar magnetic field changed in relative amplitude and phase; the quadrupole mode became more important as the XSM was approached. Some implications for the solar dynamo theory are discussed. Recent extended solar minimum consistent with the Centennial Gleissberg CycleSolar cycle amplitude systematically varies over CGCOnly solar dynamo with back action on its sources can explain the origin of CGC

Magnetospheric and plasma science studies at Saturn offer a unique opportunity to explore in-depth two types of magnetospheres. These are an ‘induced’ magnetosphere generated by the interaction of Titan with the surrounding plasma flow and Saturn's ‘intrinsic’ magnetosphere, the magnetic cavity Saturn's planetary magnetic field creates inside the solar wind flow. These two objects will be explored using the most advanced and diverse package of instruments for the analysis of plasmas, energetic particles and fields ever flown to a planet. These instruments will make it possible to address and solve a series of key scientific questions concerning the interaction of these two magnetospheres with their environment. The flow of magnetospheric plasma around the obstacle, caused by Titan's atmosphere/ionosphere, produces an elongated cavity and wake, which we call an ‘induced magnetosphere’. The Mach number characteristics of this interaction make it unique in the solar system. We first describe Titan's ionosphere, which is the obstacle to the external plasma flow. We then study Titan's induced magnetosphere, its structure, dynamics and variability, and discuss the possible existence of a small intrinsic magnetic field of Titan. Saturn's magnetosphere, which is dynamically and chemically coupled to all other components of Saturn's environment in addition to Titan, is then described. We start with a summary of the morphology of magnetospheric plasma and fields. Then we discuss what we know of the magnetospheric interactions in each region. Beginning with the innermost regions and moving outwards, we first describe the region of the main rings and their connection to the low-latitude ionosphere. Next the icy satellites, which develop specific magnetospheric interactions, are imbedded in a relatively dense neutral gas cloud which also overlaps the spatial extent of the diffuse E ring. This region constitutes a very interesting case of direct and mutual coupling between dust, neutral gas and plasma populations. Beyond about twelve Saturn radii is the outer magnetosphere, where the dynamics is dominated by its coupling with the solar wind and a large hydrogen torus. It is a region of intense coupling between the magnetosphere and Saturn's upper atmosphere, and the source of Saturn's auroral emissions, including the kilometric radiation. For each of these regions we identify the key scientific questions and propose an investigation strategy to address them. Finally, we show how the unique characteristics of the CASSINI spacecraft, instruments and mission profile make it possible to address, and hopefully solve, many of these questions. While the CASSINI orbital tour gives access to most, if not all, of the regions that need to be explored, the unique capabilities of the MAPS instrument suite make it possible to define an efficient strategy in which in situmeasurements and remote sensing observations complement each other. Saturn's magnetosphere will be extensively studied from the microphysical to the global scale over the four years of the mission. All phases present in this unique environment — extended solid surfaces, dust and gas clouds, plasma and energetic particles — are coupled in an intricate way, very much as they are in planetary formation environments. This is one of the most interesting aspects of Magnetospheric and Plasma Science studies at Saturn. It provides us with a unique opportunity to conduct an in situinvestigation of a dynamical system that is in some ways analogous to the dusty plasma environments in which planetary systems form.

Power spectral analyses of the time series of solar proton events during the past three solar cycles reveal a periodicity around 154 days. This feature is prominent in all of the cycles combined, cycles 19 and 21 individually but is only weak in cycle 20. These results are consistent with the presence of similar periodicities between 152 and 155 days in the occurrence rate of major solar flares, the sunspot blocking function (Ps), the 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7) and the sunspot number (Rz). This suggests that the circa 154-days periodicity may be a fundamental characteristic of the Sun. Periods around 50–52 days are also found in the combined data set and in the three individual cycles in general agreement with the detection of this periodicity in major flares in cycle 19 and inPs,F10.7, andRz in cycle 21. The cause of the 155 day period remains unknown. The spectra contain lines (or show power at frequencies) consistent with a model in which the periodicity is caused by differential rotation of active zones and a model in which it is related to beat frequencies between solar oscillations, as proposed by Wolff.

The problem of whether the solar dynamo is quasi-periodic or chaotic is addressed by examining 1500 years of sunspot, geomagnetic and auroral activity cycles. We find sub-harmonics of the fundamental solar cycle period during the years preceding the Maunder minimum and loss of phase of the subharmonic on emergence from it. These phenomena are indicative of chaos. They indicate that the solar dynamo is chaotic and is operating in a region close to the transition between period doubling and chaos. Since Maunder type minima reoccur irregularly for millennia, it appears that the Sun remains close to this transition to and from chaos. We postulate this as a universal characteristic of solar type stars caused by feedback in the dynamo number.

Solar proton events have been studied for over thirty years and a great deal of lore has grown around them. It is the purpose of this paper to test some of this lore against the actual data. Data on solar proton events now exist for the period from 1956 to 1985 during which time 140 events took place in which the event integrated fluxes for protons of energy > 30 MeV was larger than 105 particles cm-2. We have studied statistical properties of event integrated fluxes for particles with energy > 10 MeV and for particles with energy > 30 MeV. Earlier studies based on a single solar cycle had resulted in a sharp division of events into ‘ordinary’ and ‘anomalously large’ events.Two such entirely separate distributions imply two entirely separate acceleration mechanisms, one common and the other very rare. We find that the sharp division is neither required nor justified by this larger sample. Instead the event intensity forms a smooth distribution for intensities up to the largest observed implying that any second acceleration mechanism cannot be rare. We have also studied the relation of event sizes to the sunspot number and the solar cycle phase. We find a clear bimodal variation of annual integrated flux with solar cycle phase but no statistically significant tendency for the large events to avoid sunspot maximum. We show there is almost no relation between the maximum sunspot number in a solar cycle and the solar cycle integrated flux. We also find that for annual sunspot numbers greater than 35 (i.e., non-minimum solar cycle conditions) there is no relation whatsoever between the annual sunspot numbers and annual integrated flux.

Analyses of the time-integrated fluxes of solar energetic particle events during the period 1965–1990 show that the differential distribution of events with flux F is given by a power law, with indices between 1.2 and 1.4 depending on energy. The power law represents a good fit over three to four orders of magnitude in fluence. Similar power-law distributions have been found for peak proton and electron fluxes, X-ray flares and radio and type III bursts. At fluences greater than 109 cm-2, the slope of the distribution steepens and beyond 1010 cm-2 the power-law index is estimated to be 3.5. At energies greater than 10 MeV, the slope of the distribution was found to be essentially independent of solar cycle, when the active years of solar cycles 20, 21, and 22 were analysed. The results presented are the first for a complete period of 27 years, covering nearly 3 complete solar cycles. Other new aspects of the results include the invariance of the exponent with solar cycle and also with integral energy.

Single-event effects and many other spacecraft anomalies are caused by positively charged high-energy particles impinging on the vehicle and its component parts. Here, we review the current knowledge of the interplanetary particle environment in the energy ranges that are most important for these effects. State-of-the-art engineering models are described briefly along with comments on the future work required in this field.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY is driven by the solar wind, so information on the past history of the wind can be derived from studies of geomagnetic indices1–3. Comparison of geomagnetic activity and sunspot number over the past hundred years shows that although both vary with the 11-yr solar cycle, they do so with characteristically different patterns. Geomagnetic activity rises and falls with about the same amplitude over each 11-yr solar cycle, but these variations seem to be superposed on a longer-term cycle of similar amplitude. Consequently there is a long-term variation in the 11-yr cycle minima as well as maxima. In contrast, in the sunspot number record the long cycle appears as changing amplitudes of the 11-yr cycles, with sunspot number returning to near zero at each 11-yr minimum. As geomagnetic activity reflects solar wind conditions, it is possible to extrapolate backwards in time the present-day solar wind measurements taken near the long-cycle maximum and we estimate here that around 1900, near the long-cycle minimum, either the average solar wind speed was as much as a factor of two lower, or the average southward component of the solar wind field was as much as a factor of three smaller, or both parameters were significantly less than at present. Thus, in the not too distant past the solar energy output by means of the solar wind was different from what it is now.

Context.Each solar activity cycle is characterized by a small number of superactive regions (SARs) that produce the most violent of space weather events with the greatest disastrous influence on our living environment.