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The European Union (EU) recently ratcheted its climate ambition to net-zero emissions by 2050, with a milestone of 55% emissions cuts in 2030. This study carries out a model inter-comparison to assess the EU’s path, from “Fit for 55” in 2030 to an intermediate milestone in 2040 and onto net zero in 2050, offering insights at sectoral and member-state levels. Our model results support the bloc’s ambition for its Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Regulation sectors while pointing to the need for near-complete decarbonization of electricity by 2040, enabled by considerable deployment of renewables (45%–65% in 2030, to 60%–70% in 2040, and to 75%–90% in 2050 in electricity generation) and carbon capture and storage (0.5–2 GtCO2/year by 2050). We also highlight the trade-offs between supply-side and harder-to-abate sectors, assess the ambition of member states for net zero and timing of coal phaseout, and reflect on the economic implications of investment, technical, and policy needs.

To meet the Paris temperature targets and recover from the effects of the pandemic, many countries have launched economic recovery plans, including specific elements to promote clean energy technologies and green jobs. However, how to successfully manage investment portfolios of green recovery packages to optimize both climate mitigation and employment benefits remains unclear. Here, we use three energy-economic models, combined with a portfolio analysis approach, to find optimal low-carbon technology subsidy combinations in six major emitting regions: Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, and the United States (US). We find that, although numerical estimates differ given different model structures, results consistently show that a >50% investment in solar photovoltaics is more likely to enable CO2emissions reduction and green jobs, particularly in the EU and China. Our study illustrates the importance of strategically managing investment portfolios in recovery packages to enable optimal outcomes and foster a post-pandemic green economy.

The use of scenarios and quantitative modelling to identify pathways for energy system transformations in line with the Paris targets is well established in the field of energy and climate policy. The resulting decarbonization pathways depend on both assumptions and the type of model used (e.g., integrated assessment models, energy system, macro-econometric or bottom-up sector models). The objective of this article is to analyze how energy demand sectors in system-wide net-zero scenarios for the EU compare to the results of sector-specific models. To this end, a novel approach referred to as “sectoral benchmarking” is developed and applied, combining the application of standard indicators such as energy intensity, electrification rate or carbon intensity with an index decomposition analysis. The combined approach allows visualizing how system-wide decarbonization pathways differ from the sector models' pathways by bringing the model output in a harmonized format for an efficient comparison. The analysis compares pathways from four different modelling tools: two European system models, one of which is an energy system model (EU TIMES) and the other a macro-econometric model (NEMESIS); as well as two sector-specific models, for transport (ALADIN) and for the industry and building sectors (FORECAST). We evaluate the system model's net-zero scenarios by comparing them to a corridor given by the sector models' current policy and net-zero emission scenarios. This corridor represents what the sector models deem as plausible from their bottom-up perspective within the boundaries of current policies and ambitions to reach net-zero.

The European power system is currently experiencing new challenges due to growing shares of intermittent renewable energy sources. Compared to other flexibility options, power-to-heat (PtH) technologies have a high level of maturity. The goal is, therefore, to analyse the potential for PtH in the European energy system and possible business models that enable the exploitation of these potentials. A literature review on the European and country-level potential for PtH is carried out revealing a wide range of these potentials. An own approach assesses the potential in district heating for selected European countries. PtH potential makes up a remarkable share of the peak electrical load, but varies due to the inhomogeneous nature of the investigated national energy systems and different weather conditions.

Energy security is an interdisciplinary concept. Its definitions leaves it vulnerable to exploitation as a justification for energy policy instruments. The extensive literature has yet to converge to formulate a unified definition of energy security and many outline a multitude of methods of measurement, such as the Supply/Demand index applied here in modified form, but also the Hirshman-Herfindahl Index, the Shannon Index for fuel diversity, and others. However, many of these index methods do not explicitly take into account the techno-economic interdependencies which influence energy security within the energy system.

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and amidst COVID-19 recovery efforts, the energy crisis has put enormous pressure to policymakers to balance climate action, sustainable development, and management of the impacts of fuel supply disruptions and price shocks. Policy and market responses, such as liquefied natural gas infrastructure investments and use of every available fossil-fuel lever to make up for Russian gas supply cuts, are feared to trigger new lock-ins, jeopardising decarbonisation. This is also the case in Italy, which is highly dependent on Russia-imported gas. Energy models typically used to support such decisions take time to produce meaningful scenarios and, in times of crisis, are largely driven by highly uncertain parameters. This study uses fuzzy cognitive maps to engage with experts in a workshop and elicit their knowledge and perceptions with the aid of a questionnaire, towards simulating the impact of selected strategies and important uncertainties on the three pillars of Italy's progress to electricity-sector sustainability: decarbonisation, affordability, and reliability. In a framework of deliberation and simulation, experts displayed strong preference for renewable energy, compared to new gas infrastructure. Renewables were notably deemed to have positive impacts across all three sustainabiltiy dimensions and were found more robust against uncertainties, such as regulatory and political instability, which was highlighted as the biggest risk. Critically, despite their expectedly positive impact, demand-side transformations including demand reductions and broader behavioural shifts—a core component of the EU's current approach—may prove inadequate, should large system pressures from negative socio- and techno-economic developments persist.