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Geologic carbon sequestration ( GCS) is being considered as a climate change mitigation option in many future energy scenarios. Mathematical modeling is routinely used to predict subsurface CO2 and resident brine migration for the design of injection operations, to demonstrate the permanence of CO2 storage, and to show that other subsurface resources will not be degraded. Many processes impact the migration of CO2 and brine, including multiphase flow dynamics, geochemistry, and geomechanics, along with the spatial distribution of parameters such as porosity and permeability. In this article, we review a set of multiphase modeling approaches with different levels of conceptual complexity that have been used to model GCS. Model complexity ranges from coupled multiprocess models to simplified vertical equilibrium (VE) models and macroscopic invasion percolation models. The goal of this article is to give a framework of conceptual model complexity, and to show the types of modeling approaches that have been used to address specific GCS questions. Application of the modeling approaches is shown using five ongoing or proposed CO2 injection sites. For the selected sites, the majority of GCS models follow a simplified multiphase approach, especially for questions related to injection and local-scale heterogeneity. Coupled multiprocess models are only applied in one case where geomechanics have a strong impact on the flow. Owing to their computational efficiency, VE models tend to be applied at large scales. A macroscopic invasion percolation approach was used to predict the CO2 migration at one site to examine details of CO2 migration under the caprock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mount Simon and Lower Knox Group Formations within the Illinois Basin, USA, are being considered as targets for carbon dioxide (CO $$_2$$ ) storage. Two main concerns related to the subsurface storage process are potential leakage of CO $$_2$$ from the storage formation to the atmosphere and possible migration of CO $$_2$$ or displaced brine into underground sources of drinking water. In this study we use a numerical model to represent the migration of both CO $$_2$$ and brine in the Mount Simon Sandstone and two overlying aquifers, the shallowest of which is considered a potential source of drinking water. A vertically-integrated approach is used to model the fluid flow, leading to a stack of two-dimensional subdomains which are connected by leakage through the aquitards which separate the aquifers. Each formation is discretized into 12,103 grid cells, each $$5 \times 5\,\mathrm{{km}}$$ , and permeability and porosity vary spatially. Two vertical refinements are used for the Mount Simon Sandstone: the first represents the Mount Simon as a single layer, while the second subdivides the formation into subunits within the formation that have varying petrophysical properties. The locations and injection rates of the hypothetical injection operations are based on existing sources of CO $$_2$$ associated with power generation, ethanol production, and oil and gas refineries. A total of 250.5 million metric tons are injected at 118 sites. The injection operations are assumed to continue for 50 years. Results indicate the maximum radial extent of the CO $$_2$$ plume increased from 40 to 50 km between the single layer and multi-layer representations of the Mount Simon. Maximum average pore pressures reached 8.6 MPa and the pressure envelop extended as much as 100 km from the injection wells with significant well-well pressure interference patterns. The maximum well head pressure exceeded the fracture pressure in some cases suggesting more wells may be needed at some of the lower permeability injection sites. Brine leakage into overlying shallower units was not significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relentless increase of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and the associated concerns about climate change have motivated new ideas about carbon-constrained energy production. One technological approach to control carbon dioxide emissions is carbon capture and storage, or CCS. The underlying idea of CCS is to capture the carbon before it emitted to the atmosphere and store it somewhere other than the atmosphere. Currently, the most attractive option for large-scale storage is in deep geological formations, including deep saline aquifers. Many physical and chemical processes can affect the fate of the injected CO2, with the overall mathematical description of the complete system becoming very complex. Our approach to the problem has been to reduce complexity as much as possible, so that we can focus on the few truly important questions about the injected CO2, most of which involve leakage out of the injection formation. Toward this end, we have established a set of simplifying assumptions that allow us to derive simplified models, which can be solved numerically or, for the most simplified cases, analytically. These simplified models allow calculation of solutions to large-scale injection and leakage problems in ways that traditional multicomponent multiphase simulators cannot. Such simplified models provide important tools for system analysis, screening calculations, and overall risk-assessment calculations. We believe this is a practical and important approach to model geological storage of carbon dioxide. It also serves as an example of how complex systems can be simplified while retaining the essential physics of the problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Detailed simulation studies, highly resolved in space and time, show that a physical relationship exists among instantaneous soil-moisture values integrated over different soil depths. This dynamic relationship evolves in time as a function of the hydrologic inputs and soil and vegetation characteristics. When depth-averaged soil moisture is sampled at a low temporal frequency, the structure of the relationship breaks down and becomes undetectable. Statistical measures can overcome the limitation of sampling frequency, and predictions of mean and variance for soil moisture can be defined over any soil averaging depth d. For a water-limited ecosystem, a detailed simulation model is used to compute the mean and variance of soil moisture for different averaging depths over a number of growing seasons. We present a framework that predicts the mean of soil moisture as a function of averaging depth given soil moisture over a shallow d and the average daily rainfall reaching the soil. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Capture and subsequent injection of carbon dioxide into deep geological formations is being considered as a means to reduce anthropogenic emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere. If such a strategy is to be successful, the injected CO2 must remain within the injection formation for long periods of time, at least several hundred years. Because mature continental sedimentary basins have a century-long history of oil and gas exploration and production, they are characterized by large numbers of existing oil and gas wells. For example, more than 1 million such wells have been drilled in the state of Texas in the United States. These existing wells represent potential leakage pathways for injected CO2. To analyze leakage potential, modeling tools are needed that predict leakage rates and patterns in systems with injection and potentially leaky wells. A new semi analytical solution framework allows simple and efficient prediction of leakage rates for the case of injection of supercritical CO2 into a brine-saturated deep aquifer. The solution predicts the extent of the injected CO2 plume, provides leakage rates through an abandoned well located at an arbitrary distance from the injection well, and estimates the CO2 plume extent in the overlying aquifer into which the fluid leaks. Comparison to results from a numerical multiphase flow simulator show excellent agreement Example calculations show the importance of outer boundary conditions, the influence of both density and viscosity contrasts in the resulting solutions, and the potential importance of local upconing around the leaky well. While several important limiting assumptions are required, the new semianalytical solution provides a simple and efficient procedure for estimation of CO2 leakage for problems involving one injection well, one leaky well, and multiple aquifers separated by impermeable aquitards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water-limited ecosystems are characterized by precipitation with low annual totals and significant temporal variability, transpiration that is limited by soil-moisture availability, and infiltration events that may only partially rewet the vegetation root zone. Average transpiration in such environments is controlled by precipitation, and accurate predictions of vegetation health require adequate representation of temporal variation in the timing and intensity of plant uptake. Complexities introduced by variability in depth of infiltration, distribution of roots, and a plant''s ability to compensate for spatially heterogeneous soil moisture suggest a minimum vertical resolution required for satisfactory representation of plant behavior.To explore the effect of vertical resolution on predictions of transpiration, we conduct a series of numerical experiments, comparing the results from models of varying resolution for a range of plant and climate conditions. From temporal and spatial scales of the underlying processes and desired output, we develop dimensionless parameters that indicate the adequacy of a finite-resolution model with respect to reproducing characteristics of plant transpiration over multiple growing seasons. These parameters may be used to determine the spatial resolution required to predict vegetation health in water-limited ecosystems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

For problems of convection–diffusion type, Eulerian–Lagrangian localized adjoint methods provide a methodology that maintains the accuracy and efficiency of Eulerian–Lagrangian methods, while also conserving mass and systematically treating any type of boundary condition. In groundwater hydrology, this framework is useful for solute transport, as well as vadose-zone transport, multiphase transport, and reactive flows. The formulation was originated around 1990 by the authors, Herrera and Ewing, in a paper that appeared in Advances in Water Resources [Adv. Water Resour. 13 (1990) 187]. This paper reviews the progress in the development, analysis, and application of these methods since 1990, and suggests topics for future work. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Air-water flow through thin porous layers is studied using a state-of-the-art dynamic pore-network model. • Our pore-scale results provide insight into the continuum-scale modeling of thin porous layers. • We demonstrate the role of phase change in water removal from the cathode gas diffusion layer of a polymer electrolyte fuel cell. Thin porous layers, that have large aspect ratios, are seen in many applications such as hydrogen fuel cells and hygiene products, in which air-water immiscible flow is of great interest. Direct numerical simulations based on Navier-Stokes equation are computationally expensive, and even prohibitive for low capillary number flow such as water flooding in low-temperature polymer electrolyte fuel cells. Alternatively, the pore-network modeling needs much less computational resources, while still retaining essentials of the pore-structure information. In this work, a dynamic pore-network model of air-water flow with phase change has been developed. We focus on drainage processes through thin porous layers, in which liquid water is the nonwetting phase. Three test cases are conducted, namely, air-water flow through a thin porous layer, air-water flow through a bilayer of fine and coarse thin porous layers, and water flooding in the gas diffusion layer of a polymer electrolyte fuel cell with phase change between water and its vapor. Using these test cases, we aim to demonstrate the application of dynamic pore-network modeling in thin porous media studies. In particular, we discuss the challenge of modeling thin porous media at the average scale, and highlight the role of phase change in removing liquid water from the cathode gas diffusion layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Recent studies have reported methane (CH 4) emissions from abandoned and active oil and gas infrastructure across the United States, where measured emissions show regional variability. To investigate similar phenomena in West Virginia, we measure and characterize emissions from abandoned and active conventional oil and gas wells. In addition, we reconcile divergent regional CH 4 emissions estimates by comparing our West Virginia emissions estimates with those from other states in the United States. We find the CH 4 emission factors from 112 plugged and 147 unplugged wells in West Virginia are 0.1 g CH 4 h−1 and 3.2 g CH 4 h−1, respectively. The highest emitting unplugged abandoned wells in WV are those most recently abandoned, with the mean emission of wells abandoned between 1993 and 2015 of 16 g CH 4 h−1 compared to the mean of those abandoned before 1993 of 3 × 10−3 g CH 4 h−1. Using field observations at a historic mining area as a proxy for state-wide drilling activity in the late 19th/early 20th century, we estimate the number of abandoned wells in WV at between 60,000 and 760,000 wells. Methane emission factors from active conventional wells were estimated at 138 g CH 4 h−1. We did not find an emission pattern relating to age of wells or operator for active wells, however, the CH 4 emission factor for active conventional wells was 7.5 times larger than the emission factor used by the EPA for conventional oil and gas wells. Our results suggest that well emission factors for active and abandoned wells can vary within the same geologic formation and may be affected by differences in state regulations. Therefore, accounting for state-level variations is critical for accuracy in greenhouse gas emissions inventories, which are used to guide emissions reduction strategies. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • WV CH 4 emissions of plugged, unplugged and active wells were 0.1, 3.2 and 138 g CH 4 h−1. • Methane emissions were higher at active wells compared to plugged and unplugged abandoned wells. • We estimate the number of abandoned wells in WV at between 60,000 and 760,000. • Average emission from active wells was 7.5 times larger than the EPA emission factor. • Well emission can vary along geologic formation and be affected by state regulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A personal narrative is presented which explores the author's experience in delivering lectures on hydrogeology across the globe.

Hydraulic fracturing in shale gas formations involves the injection of large volumes of aqueous fluid deep underground. Only a small proportion of the injected water volume is typically recovered, raising concerns that the remaining water may migrate upward and potentially contaminate groundwater aquifers. We implement a numerical model of two-phase water and gas flow in a shale gas formation to test the hypothesis that the remaining water is imbibed into the shale rock by capillary forces and retained there indefinitely. The model includes the essential physics of the system and uses the simplest justifiable geometrical structure. We apply the model to simulate wells from a specific well pad in the Horn River Basin, British Columbia, where there is sufficient available data to build and test the model. Our simulations match the water and gas production data from the wells remarkably closely and show that all the injected water can be accounted for within the shale system, with most imbibed into the shale rock matrix and retained there for the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Editorial. Presents a discussion on hydrogeological research that focuses on the importance and effect of hydrogeology on the environment. Discussions on how ground water resources and the field of hydrogeology might be impacted by global warming; Disposable methods used in geologic transformations; Major types of formations considered in hydrogeology.

We study the axisymmetric flows generated from fluid injection into a horizontal confined porous medium that is originally saturated with another fluid of different density and viscosity. Neglecting the effects of surface tension and fluid mixing, we use the lubrication approximation to obtain a nonlinear advection-diffusion equation that describes the time evolution of the sharp fluid-fluid interface. The flow behaviors are controlled by two dimensionless groups: M, the viscosity ratio of displaced fluid relative to injected fluid, and G, which measures the relative importance of buoyancy and fluid injection. For this axisymmetric geometry, the similarity solution involving R²/T (where R is the dimensionless radial coordinate and T is the dimensionless time) is an exact solution to the nonlinear governing equation for all times. Four analytical expressions are identified as asymptotic approximations (two of which are new solutions): (i) injection-driven flow with the injected fluid being more viscous than the displaced fluid (Γ ≪ 1 and M < 1) where we identify a self-similar solution that indicates a parabolic interface shape; (ii) injection-driven flow with injected and displaced fluids of equal viscosity (Γ ≪ 1 and M = 1), where we find a self-similar solution that predicts a distinct parabolic interface shape; (iii) injection-driven flow with a less viscous injected fluid (Γ ≪ 1 and M > 1) for which there is a rarefaction wave solution, assuming that the Saffman-Taylor instability does not occur at the reservoir scale; and (iv) buoyancy-driven flow (Γ ≫ 1) for which there is a well-known self-similar solution corresponding to gravity currents in an unconfined porous medium [S. Lyle et al. "Axisymmetric gravity currents in a porous medium," J. Fluid Mech. 543, 293-302 (2005)]. The various axisymmetric flows are summarized in a G-M regime diagram with five distinct dynamic behaviors including the four asymptotic regimes and an intermediate regime. The implications of the regime diagram are discussed using practical engineering projects of geological CO2 sequestration, enhanced oil recovery, and underground waste disposal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subsurface two-phase flow in porous media often takes place in reservoirs with a high ratio between the associated lateral and vertical extent and the lateral and vertical flow time scales. This allows for a two-scale approach with effective quantities for two-dimensional horizontal flow equations obtained from reconstructed hydrostatic vertical pressure and saturation distributions. Here, we derive explicit expressions for the two dimensional constitutive relationships for a play-type hysteretic Brooks-Corey capillary pressure function with a pore-size distribution index of 2 and quadratic relative permeabilities. We obtain an explicit hysteretic parametrization for the upscaled capillary pressure function and the upscaled relative permeabilities. The size of the hysteresis loop depends on the ratio between buoyancy and the entry pressure, i.e. it scales with the reservoir height and the ratio between drainage and imbibition capillary pressure. We find that the scaling for the relative permeability is non-monotonic and hysteresis vanishes for both small and large reservoirs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) is likely to be an integral component of any realistic plan to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In conjunction with large-scale deployment of carbon storage as a technology, there is an urgent need for tools which provide reliable and quick assessments of aquifer storage performance. Previously, abandoned wells from over a century of oil and gas exploration and production have been identified as critical potential leakage paths. The practical importance of abandoned wells is emphasized by the correlation of heavy CO2 emitters (typically associated with industrialized areas) to oil and gas producing regions in North America. Herein, we describe a novel framework for predicting the leakage from large numbers of abandoned wells, forming leakage paths connecting multiple subsurface permeable formations. The framework is designed to exploit analytical solutions to various components of the problem and, ultimately, leads to a grid-free approximation to CO2 and brine leakage rates, as well as fluid distributions. We apply our model in a comparison to an established numerical solver for the underlying governing equations. Thereafter, we demonstrate the capabilities of the model on typical field data taken from the vicinity of Edmonton, Alberta. This data set consists of over 500 wells and 1 permeable formations. Results show the flexibility and utility of the solution methods, and highlight the role that analytical and semianalytical solutions can play in this important problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work examines the applicability of averaged concentrations, a mathematical analog of field-measured solute concentrations averaged over a large number of pores, in determining mineral reaction rates in heterogeneous porous media. Pore-scale network models were used to represent sandstones with anorthite and kaolinite as reactive minerals that are heterogeneously distributed in space. Reaction rates calculated from averaged concentrations were compared to true reaction rates that take into account variabilities in individual pore properties. Simulations were run under the highly acidic conditions relevant to geological CO2 sequestration in deep brine formations under various mineralogical and flow conditions. Results show that, under conditions where incomplete mixing arises, the averaged concentrations and analogously the field-measured concentrations, do not accurately reflect reaction progress. Over the length scale of several millimeters, the anorthite dissolution rates can be overestimated by a factor of three. For kaolinite, due to its highly nonlinear reaction rate law, even the reaction direction may be incorrectly determined, with precipitation predicted as dissolution. The extent of errors introduced depends on the extent of incomplete mixing. Conditions that homogenize the concentration fields, such as small reactive mineral clusters, abundant reactive minerals, and very fast or very slow flow rates, minimize errors introduced from averaging. These results indicate that the averaging scheme may partly contribute to the often-cited laboratory-field rate discrepancy and have important implications for the interpretation of concentration data obtained from field investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Geochemical reaction rate laws are often measured using crushed minerals in well-mixed laboratory systems that are designed to eliminate mass transport limitations. Such rate laws are often used directly in reactive transport models to predict the reaction and transport of chemical species in consolidated porous media found in subsurface environments. Due to the inherent heterogeneities of porous media, such use of lab-measured rate laws may introduce errors, leading to a need to develop methods for upscaling reaction rates. In this work, we present a methodology for using pore-scale network modeling to investigate scaling effects in geochemical reaction rates. The reactive transport processes are simulated at the pore scale, accounting for heterogeneities of both physical and mineral properties. Mass balance principles are then used to calculate reaction rates at the continuum scale. To examine the scaling behavior of reaction kinetics, these continuum-scale rates from the network model are compared to the rates calculated by directly using laboratory-measured reaction rate laws and ignoring pore-scale heterogeneities. In this work, this methodology is demonstrated by upscaling anorthite and kaolinite reaction rates under simulation conditions relevant to geological CO2 sequestration. Simulation results show that under conditions with CO2 present at high concentrations, pore-scale concentrations of reactive species and reaction rates vary spatially by orders of magnitude, and the scaling effect is significant. With a much smaller CO2 concentration, the scaling effect is relatively small. These results indicate that the increased acidity associated with geological sequestration can generate conditions for which proper scaling tools are yet to be developed. This work demonstrates the use of pore-scale network modeling as a valuable research tool for examining upscaling of geochemical kinetics. The pore-scale model allows the effects of pore-scale heterogeneities to be integrated into system behavior at multiple scales, thereby identifying important factors that contribute to the scaling effect. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Unsaturated flow simulation requires identification of soil parameters at length scales that usually subsume smaller-scale heterogeneities. The standard two-parameter constitutive model performs well for predictions of moisture plume evolution in homogeneous soils but may not be as successful in capturing the flow and dispersion of soil water in heterogeneous domains. The first step in evaluating the limitations of this model is to develop a clear understanding of the effects of the constitutive parameters on moisture plume evolution. One approach is to define type curves derived from multiple homogeneous simulations. These type curves are based on bulk measures of system behavior, suitable for comparison to responses of heterogeneous systems. Simulation results for a range of heterogeneities defined on a specific test system indicate that some heterogeneity patterns allow definition of effective parameters for use in the two-parameter constitutive model, while others do not. For those heterogeneity patterns, the mathematical structure of the governing equations applied at the large scale must have a form that is different from the equation that underlies the type curves. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Investigates the underground storage of carbon dioxide. Association of deep saline aquifers with sedimentary basins; Pathways for carbon compound leakages from aquifers; Concept of subsurface storage scheme.

In theories of multiphase flow through porous media, capillary pressure–saturation and relative permeability–saturation curves are assumed to be intrinsic properties of the medium. Moreover, relative permeability is assumed to be a scalar property. However, numerous theoretical and experimental works have shown that these basic assumptions may not be valid. For example, relative permeability is known to be affected by the flow velocity (or pressure gradient) at which the measurements are carried out. In this article, it is suggested that the nonuniqueness of capillary pressure–relative permeability–saturation relationships is due to the presence of microheterogeneities within a laboratory sample. In order to investigate this hypothesis, a large number of “numerical experiments” are carried out. A numerical multiphase flow model is used to simulate the procedures that are commonly used in the laboratory for the measurement of capillary pressure and relative permeability curves. The dimensions of the simulation domain are similar to those of a typical laboratory sample (a few centimeters in each direction). Various combinations of boundary conditions and soil heterogeneity are simulated and average capillary pressure, saturation, and relative permeability for the “soil sample” are obtained. It is found that the irreducible water saturation is a function of the capillary number; the smaller the capillary number, the larger the irreducible water saturation. Both drainage and imbibition capillary pressure curves are found to be strongly affected by heterogeneities and boundary conditions. Relative permeability is also found to be affected by the boundary conditions; this is especially true about the nonaqueous phase permeability. Our results reveal that there is much need for laboratory experiments aimed at investigating the interplay of boundary conditions and microheterogeneities and their effect on capillary pressure and relative permeability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Since 1850 the atmospheric mixing ratio of methane (CH 4), a potent greenhouse gas, has doubled. This increase is directly linked to an escalation in emissions from anthropogenic sources. An inexpensive means to identify and monitor CH 4 emission sources and evaluate the efficacy of mitigation strategies is essential. However, sourcing reliable, low-cost, easy-to-calibrate sensors that are fit for purpose is challenging. A recent study showed that CH 4 mixing ratio data from a low-power, low-cost CH 4 sensor (Figaro TGS2600) agreed well with CH 4 mixing ratios measured by a high precision sensor at mixing ratios between 1.85 ppm and 2 ppm. To investigate, as a proof of concept, if this low-cost sensor could be used to measure typical ambient CH 4 mixing ratios, we operated a TGS2600 in conjunction with a Los Gatos Ultra-portable Greenhouse Gas Analyzer (UGGA) in controlled laboratory conditions. We then explored the sensor's long-term reliability by deploying the TGS2600 near an onshore gas terminal to calculate emissions from May to July 2018. Our initial studies showed that previously published linear algorithms could not convert TGS2600 output to CH 4 mixing ratios measured by the UGGA. However, we derived a non-linear empirical relationship that could be used to reliably convert the output of a TGS2600 unit to CH 4 mixing ratios over a range of 1.85–5.85 ppm that agree to a high-precision instrument output to ±0.01 ppm. Our study showed that the TGS2600 could be used to continuously measure variability in CH 4 mixing ratios from 1.82 to 5.40 ppm for three months downwind of the gas terminal. Using a simplified Gaussian Plume approach, these mixing ratios correspond to an emission flux range of 0–238 g CH 4 s−1, with average emission of 9.6 g CH 4 s−1 from the currently active North Terminal and 1.6 g CH 4 s−1 from the decommissioned South Terminal. Our work here demonstrates the feasibility of utilizing a low-cost sensor to detect methane leakage at concentrations close to ambient background levels, as long as the device is routinely calibrated with an accurate reference instrument. Having a widely deployed network of such low-cost CH 4 sensors would allow improved identification, monitoring and mitigation of a variety of CH 4 emissions. • Low-cost, low-power methane sensor is investigated for use in a measurement network. • Calibration shows a non-linear response to methane change between 2 and 6 ppm. • Long-term deployment shows sensor is reliable and can be used to measure autonomously. • Sensor can detect methane close to background but requires routine calibration. • A network of low-cost sensors could help identification and mitigation of methane. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We examine 458 power plants built since 2005 in 15 representative BRI countries. • Fossil fuel power generation accounts for 75% of capacity addition. • The number of solar PV and wind projects is increasing but capacity remains small. • Estimated committed CO 2 emissions are 56 (40–72) Gt by 2030. • This corresponds to 7–17% of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C climate goal. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), initially proposed by China in Fall 2013, involves large-scale development of infrastructure, including energy infrastructure, in Asia, Europe, and Africa, and thus has the potential to affect global climate. In this work, we analyze publicly available information for 458 power plant development projects in 15 representative countries across the BRI regions from eight years prior to BRI (January 2005), to 6 years after BRI (June 2019) in which Chinese engineering contracting companies played a significant role. The data indicate that coal, gas, and solar photovoltaics (PV) activities increased to different degrees after BRI was introduced. We find that 75% of the new generation capacity after October 2013 has gone to fossil fuels, while the rest has gone to hydroelectricity (14%), solar PV (6%), wind (3%), and others (2%). Those numbers have important carbon emissions implications. Based on current trends, the total BRI-associated power development in the 15 countries could generate 37 (range 26–48) gigatonnes (Gt) of committed carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions by the end of 2030, corresponding to 4–11% of the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5-degree climate goal. Extrapolation of these results to all BRI countries gives an estimate of 56 (range 40–72) Gt CO 2 for cumulative BRI-related committed emissions by 2030, corresponding to 7% to 17% of the remaining 1.5-degree carbon budget. If the projected growth of fossil fuel power generation in BRI slows down prior to 2030, there are commensurate reductions in emissions implications. To provide context for these numbers, we define a "greenness ratio," which can be used to measure the level of environmental sustainability of BRI in the power sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various modeling approaches, including fully three-dimensional (3D) models and vertical-equilibrium (VE) models, have been used to study the large-scale storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) in deep saline aquifers. 3D models solve the governing flow equations in three spatial dimensions to simulate migration of CO2 and brine in the geological formation. VE models assume rapid and complete buoyant segregation of the two fluid phases, resulting in vertical pressure equilibrium and allowing closed-form integration of the governing equations in the vertical dimension. This reduction in dimensionality makes VE models computationally much more efficient, but the associated assumptions restrict the applicability of VE models to geological formations with moderate to high permeability. In the present work, we extend the VE models to simulate CO2 storage in fractured deep saline aquifers in the context of dual-continuum modeling, where fractures and rock matrix are treated as porous media continua with different permeability and porosity. The high permeability of fractures makes the VE model appropriate for the fracture domain, thereby leading to a VE dual-continuum model for the dual continua. The transfer of fluid mass between fractures and rock matrix is represented by a mass transfer function connecting the two continua, with a modified transfer function for the VE model based on vertical integration. Comparison of the new model with a 3D dual-continuum model shows that the new model provides comparable numerical results while being much more computationally efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent measurements of methane emissions from abandoned oil/gas wells show that these wells can be a substantial source of methane to the atmosphere, particularly from a small proportion of highemitting wells. However, identifying high emitters remains a challenge. We couple 163 well measurements of methane flow rates; ethane, propane, and n-butane concentrations; isotopes of methane; and noble gas concentrations from 88 wells in Pennsylvania with synthesized data from historical documents, field investigations, and state databases. Using our databases, we (i) improve estimates of the number of abandoned wells in Pennsylvania; (ii) characterize key attributes that accompany high emitters, including depth, type, plugging status, and coal area designation; and (iii) estimate attribute- specific and overall methane emissions from abandoned wells. High emitters are best predicted as unplugged gas wells and plugged/vented gas wells in coal areas and appear to be unrelated to the presence of underground natural gas storage areas or unconventional oil/gas production. Repeat measurements over 2 years show that flow rates of high emitters are sustained through time. Our attribute-based methane emission data and our comprehensive estimate of 470,000-750,000 abandoned wells in Pennsylvania result in estimated state-wide emissions of 0.04-0.07 Mt (1012 g) CH4 per year. This estimate represents 5-8% of annual anthropogenic methane emissions in Pennsylvania. Our methodology combining new field measurements with data mining of previously unavailable well attributes and numbers of wells can be used to improve methane emission estimates and prioritize cost-effective mitigation strategies for Pennsylvania and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a probabilistic collocation Eulerian–Lagrangian localized adjoint method on sparse grids for assessing CO 2 leakage through wells in randomly heterogeneous porous media, by utilizing the intrinsic mathematical, numerical, and physical properties of the mathematical model. We model the process in which CO 2 is injected into a deep aquifer, spreads within the aquifer and, upon reaching a leaky well, rises up to a shallower aquifer, to quantify the leakage rate, which depends on the pressure build-up in the aquifer due to injection and the buoyancy of CO 2 . The underlying Eulerian–Lagrangian framework has high potential to improve the efficiency and accuracy for the numerical simulation of complex flow and transport processes in CO 2 sequestration. The sparse grid probabilistic collocation framework adds computationally efficient uncertainty quantification functionality onto pre-existing Eulerian–Lagrangian methods in a nonintrusive manner. It also provides a scalable framework to consider uncertainty in a straightforward parallel manner. Preliminary numerical experiments show the feasibility and potential of the method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abandoned oil and gas (AOG) wells can provide pathways for subsurface fluid migration, which can lead to groundwater contamination and gas emissions to the atmosphere. Little is known about the millions of AOG wells in the U.S. and abroad. Recently, we acquired data on methane emissions from 42 plugged and unplugged AOG wells in five different counties across western Pennsylvania. We used historical documents to estimate well depths and used these depths with the emissions data to estimate the wells' effective permeabilities, which capture the combined effects of all leakage pathways within and around the wellbores. We find effective permeabilities to range from 10-6 to 10² millidarcies, which are within the range of previous estimates. The effective permeability data presented here provide perspective on older AOG wells and are valuable when considering the leakage potential of AOG wells in a wide range of applications, including geologic storage of carbon dioxide, natural gas storage, and oil and gas development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abandoned oil and gas wells provide a potential pathway for subsurface migration and emissions of methane and other fluids to the atmosphere. Little is known about methane fluxes from the millions of abandoned wells that exist in the United States. Here, we report direct measurements of methane fluxes from abandoned oil and gas wells in Pennsylvania, using static flux chambers. A total of 42 and 52 direct measurements were made at wells and at locations near the wells ("controls") in forested, wetland, grassland, and river areas in July, August, October 2013 and January 2014, respectively. The mean methane flow rates at these well locations were 0.27 kg/d/well, and the mean methane flow rate at the control locations was 4.5 × 10-6 kg/d/location. Three out of the 19 measured wells were high emitters that had methane flow rates that were three orders of magnitude larger than the median flow rate of 1.3 × -3 kg/d/well. Assuming the mean flow rate found here is representative of all abandoned wells in Pennsylvania, we scaled the methane emissions to be 4-7% of estimated total anthropogenic methane emissions in Pennsylvania. The presence of ethane, propane, and n-butane, along with the methane isotopic composition, indicate that the emitted methane is predominantly of thermogenic origin. These measurements show that methane emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells can be significant. The research required to quantify these emissions nationally should be undertaken so they can be accurately described and included in greenhouse gas emissions inventories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A series of Mb 3.8-5.5 induced seismic events in the midcontinent region, United States, resulted from injection of fluid either into a basal sedimentary reservoir with no underlying confining unit or directly into the underlying crystalline basement complex. The earthquakes probably occurred along faults that were likely critically stressed within the crystalline basement. These faults were located at a considerable distance (up to 10 km) from the injection wells and head increases at the hypocenters were likely relatively small (∼70-150 m). We present a suite of simulations that use a simple hydrogeologic-geomechanical model to assess what hydrogeologic conditions promote or deter induced seismic events within the crystalline basement across the midcontinent. The presence of a confining unit beneath the injection reservoir horizon had the single largest effect in preventing induced seismicity within the underlying crystalline basement. For a crystalline basement having a permeability of 2 × 10−17 m2 and specific storage coefficient of 10−7/m, injection at a rate of 5455 m3/d into the basal aquifer with no underlying basal seal over 10 years resulted in probable brittle failure to depths of about 0.6 km below the injection reservoir. Including a permeable ( kz = 10−13 m2) Precambrian normal fault, located 20 m from the injection well, increased the depth of the failure region below the reservoir to 3 km. For a large permeability contrast between a Precambrian thrust fault (10−12 m2) and the surrounding crystalline basement (10−18 m2), the failure region can extend laterally 10 km away from the injection well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents a quantitative ecohydrological framework for predicting regional distribution patterns of woody species in dryland ecosystems. The framework is based on an existing stochastic model for the daily mass balance of water that represents the interactions between soils, climate, and vegetation. Individual species selection is based on an optimality trade-off hypothesis, which states that dryland vegetation patterns are constrained by maximization of water use and simultaneous minimization of water stress. The relative importance of water use and stress avoidance to the overall fitness of three Acacia species is determined from the heterogeneous basin, the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro river basin, of the central Kenya highlands. The model results indicate that overall fitness is more strongly influenced by water use than stress avoidance but that consideration of both stress avoidance and water use is critical to predicting basin-scale patterns of species distribution. We identify a linear trend in the frequency and intensity of storms with the same annual total using a basin-wide gauge precipitation dataset. After calibration, we apply the basin average linear trends in time for average rain per storm and storm arrival rates. The model results indicate the upslope migration of two species, Acacia tortilis and Acacia xanthophloea to areas with higher total rainfall. Lastly, we explore the modeled changes of species cover in the basin influenced by changes in rainfall total holding growing season rainfall variability constant and changes in growing season rainfall variability holding total rainfall constant. We find that changes in dryland species distribution patterns and relative abundance may be as sensitive to growing season rainfall variability as they are to changes in total rainfall amounts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]