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AbstractThe goal of this article is to investigate a dependence among sovereign countries’ risk of default. The analysis was based on data for 42 European countries during the period 1994–2013. Three models were used to calculate default probabilities: Li’s based on transition matrix and prudent unconditional and conditional on previous defaults estimation technique for low default portfolios. The relationship was analysed through the use of different types of copulas. The analysis has shown no regularity in a selection of the optimal copula. The results differ based on the model and rating grade combination used.

AbstractThe global financial crisis has proven to be one of the worst and most-demanding events ever. According to common understanding, it is highly unlikely for a country to go bankrupt. However, we have seen a number of countries on the verge of bankruptcy, as well as many which have officially gone bankrupt. It is probable that many more will do so in the future. This knowledge has led us to the question: how probable is it that a sovereign might suffer serious solvency problems? The purpose of this study was to apply a multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA) as an effective tool for a recognition and differentiation among defaulted and non-defaulted nations. The performed analysis was based on data up to 2012 for 26 emerging and 20 developed European countries. The results indicated a high predictive power for ‘non-liquid’ macroeconomic variables like import, export, investment, population and GDP ratios, underlining MDA as the most suitable model for insolvency prediction, compared to other popular methods like probit and logit model. But unlike in other studies the debt/lending/revenue ratios were characterised by weak predictive power.