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Most high-mountain regions worldwide are susceptible to snow avalanches during the winter or all year round. In this study, a Universal Snow Avalanche Modeling Index is developed, suitable for determining avalanche hazard in mountain regions. The first step in the research is the collection of data in the field and their processing in geographic information systems and remote sensing. In the period 2023–2024, avalanches were mapped in the field, and later, avalanches as points in geographic information systems (GIS) were overlapped with the dominant natural conditions in the study area. The second step involves determining the main criteria (snow cover, terrain slope, and land use) and evaluating the values to obtain the Snow Avalanche Formation Index (SAFI). Thresholds obtained through field research and the formation of avalanche inventory were used to develop the SAFI index. The index is applied with the aim of identifying locations susceptible to avalanche formation (source areas). The values used for the calculation include Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI > 0.6), terrain slope (20–60°) and land use (pastures, meadows). The third step presents the analysis of SAFI locations with meteorological conditions (winter precipitation and winter air temperature). The fourth step is the modeling of the propagation (simulation) of other parts of the snow avalanche in the Flow-R software 2.0. The results show that 282.9 km2 of the study area (Šar Mountains, Serbia) is susceptible to snow avalanches, with the thickness of the potentially triggered layer being 50 cm. With a 5 m thick snowpack, 299.9 km2 would be susceptible. The validation using the ROC-AUC method confirms a very high predictive power (0.94). The SAFI–Flow-R approach offers snow avalanche modeling for which no avalanche inventory is available, representing an advance for all mountain areas where historical data do not exist. The results of the study can be used for land use planning, zoning vulnerable

Questo progetto di ricerca, ha affrontato una vasta gamma di aspetti relativi ai fenomeni di crollo roccioso. L'indagine ha compreso l'analisi di casi di studio reali con l'obiettivo di comprendere la distribuzione dei frammenti in relazione al volume e alla topografia. Inoltre, sono state condotte simulazioni numeriche allo scopo di valutare l'impatto della frammentazione sull'analisi della pericolosità. Allo stesso tempo, sono stati condotti esperimenti in situ e di laboratorio al fine di approfondire la comprensione delle dinamiche di frammentazione. Questo approccio multidisciplinare ha fornito intuizioni sul comportamento dei crolli rocciosi, la frammentazione e le relative implicazioni per la valutazione della pericolosità e la gestione del rischio in regioni montuose. In particolare, la tesi si è concentrata su quattro obiettivi principali: L'analisi di casi di studio di crolli rocciosi, con un focus specifico sull'esame delle distribuzioni delle dimensioni dei blocchi nel deposito finale dei frammenti dei crolli. Questo approccio ha consentito di proporre indicatori che forniscono informazioni dettagliate sulle dinamiche di frammentazione durante gli eventi di crollo. Nello specifico, nel Capitolo 1 sono stati descritti tre indicatori chiave correlati alla frammentazione nei crolli rocciosi: la distanza percorsa rispetto alle dimensioni dei frammenti, la relazione di scala di potenza tra il deposito e le dimensioni dei frammenti, l'angolo di copertura e la dispersione laterale. Questi indicatori forniscono importanti informazioni sulla presenza di frammentazione dinamica durante gli eventi di crollo, permettendo di distinguere tra le caratteristiche del deposito primario e quelle dei blocchi/frammenti, mentre evidenziano la mobilità e il consumo di energia associati alla frammentazione. La quantificazione e la valutazione della frammentazione nelle dinamiche e nella pericolosità dei crolli rocciosi attraverso una modellazione dettagliata e l'analisi di, This research project, titled "Rockfall Volume Distribution, Fragmentation, and Frequency in the Context of Climate Change," aimed to explore various aspects of rockfall phenomena. The investigation included the analysis of real case studies to understand fragment distribution in relation to volume and topography, numerical simulations to assess the impact of fragmentation on hazard analysis, and in-situ and laboratory experiments to enhance the understanding of fragmentation dynamics. This multidisciplinary approach sought to provide some insights into how rockfalls behave, how fragmentation occurs, and the implications for hazard assessment and risk management in mountainous regions. Specifically, the thesis attempted to focus on four main objectives: 1. The analysis of real case studies of rockfalls, with a specific focus on examining the distributions of block sizes in the final deposit of rockfall fragments. This approach aimed to propose some indicators that could provide information about the dynamics of fragmentation during rockfall events. 2. The quantification and evaluation of fragmentation in rockfall dynamics and hazard assessment through detailed modeling and analysis of real case studies. This approach aimed to examine how fragmentation processes influence rockfall hazard and the importance of explicitly modeling fragmentation for accurate hazard assessment. 3. The analysis of the fragmentation process through experiments conducted at different scales (full-scale and laboratory-scale) to investigate behaviors observed in real case studies, focusing on dispersion, deposition, and mobility of rockfalls, as well as the effects of discontinuities. Despite the complexities and challenges in this area of study, the analysis of fragmentation in rockfalls remains of significant importance for various reasons. This work aimed to contribute to the enrichment of the understanding of this topic, impacting context of risk assessment and management in mountainous r

Warning systems are essential for managing flood events and reducing human and material damage. However, the lack of protocols for the standardized development of warning messages is a challenge in emergency communication. Although emergency agencies dispose of basic messages, they lack protocols for creating and structuring content and classifying it according to different typologies. This paper proposes a methodology to create a library of flood risk warning messages. We describe the process of creating a library commissioned by the emergency services of the Valencian Community (Spain). The article provides a step-by-step guidance for identifying emergency areas, writing messages in a standardized way, and structuring the contents of the library in a systematic and operational manner. Message libraries are a strategic resource to enhance warning systems in the current context of climate change., Les systèmes d’alerte sont essentiels pour gérer les inondations et réduire les dommages humains et matériels. Toutefois, l’absence de protocoles pour l’élaboration normalisée des messages d’alerte constitue un défi pour la communication d’urgence. Bien que les agences d’urgence disposent de messages de base, elles manquent de protocoles pour créer et structurer le contenu et le classer selon différentes typologies. Ce document propose une méthodologie pour la création d’une bibliothèque de messages d’alerte sur les risques d’inondation. Il décrit le processus de création d’une bibliothèque commandée par les services d’urgence de la Communauté valencienne (Espagne). L’article fournit des conseils détaillés pour l’identification des zones d’urgence, la rédaction des messages de manière standardisée et la structuration du contenu de la bibliothèque de manière systématique et opérationnelle. Les bibliothèques de messages constituent une ressource stratégique pour améliorer les systèmes d’alerte dans le contexte actuel du changement climatique., I sistemi di allerta sono essenziali per gestire gli eventi alluvionali e ridurre i danni alle persone e alle cose. Tuttavia, la mancanza di protocolli per lo sviluppo standardizzato dei messaggi di allerta rappresenta una sfida nella comunicazione di emergenza. Sebbene le agenzie di emergenza dispongano di messaggi di base, mancano di protocolli per la creazione e la strutturazione dei contenuti e per la loro classificazione in base alle diverse tipologie. Questo articolo propone una metodologia per creare una libreria di messaggi di allerta sul rischio di alluvione. Descriviamo il processo di creazione di una biblioteca commissionata dai servizi di emergenza della Comunità Valenciana (Spagna). L’articolo fornisce una guida per identificare le aree di emergenza, scrivere messaggi in modo standardizzato e strutturare i contenuti della biblioteca in modo sistematico e operativo. Le biblioteche di messaggi sono una risorsa strategica per migliorare i sistemi di allerta nell’attuale contesto di cambiamento climatico., Os sistemas de alerta são essenciais para gerir os fenómenos de inundação e reduzir os danos humanos e materiais. No entanto, a falta de protocolos para o desenvolvimento normalizado de mensagens de aviso é um desafio na comunicação de emergência. Embora as agências de emergência disponham de mensagens básicas, faltam-lhes protocolos para criar e estruturar conteúdos e classificá-los de acordo com diferentes tipologias. Este documento propõe uma metodologia para a criação de uma biblioteca de mensagens de alerta de risco de inundação. Descreve o processo de criação de uma biblioteca encomendada pelos serviços de emergência da Comunidade Valenciana (Espanha). O artigo fornece orientações detalhadas para a identificação das áreas de emergência, a redação de mensagens de forma normalizada e a estruturação do conteúdo da biblioteca de forma sistemática e operacional. As bibliotecas de mensagens são um recurso estratégico para melhorar os sistemas de alerta no atual contexto de alterações climáticas., Los sistemas de alerta son fundamentales para gestionar eventos de inundación y reducir daños humanos y materiales. Sin embargo, la falta de protocolos para la elaboración normalizada de mensajes de alerta es un desafío en la comunicación de emergencias. Aunque las agencias de emergencia disponen de mensajes básicos, carecen en cambio de protocolos para crear y estructurar los contenidos y clasificarlos según distintas tipologías. Este trabajo propone una metodología para crear una biblioteca de mensajes de alerta ante riesgo de inundación. Se describe el proceso de creación de una biblioteca encargada por los servicios de emergencia de la Comunidad Valenciana (España). El artículo proporciona una guía detallada para identificar áreas de emergencia, redactar mensajes de manera normalizada y estructurar los contenidos de la biblioteca de forma sistemática y operativa. Las bibliotecas de mensajes son un recurso estratégico para potenciar los sistemas de alerta en el contexto actual de cambio climático.

Over the past few decades, the occurrence and intensity of geological hazards, such as landslides, have substantially risen due to various factors, including global climate change, seismic events, rapid urbanization and other anthropogenic activities. Landslide disasters pose a significant risk in both urban and rural areas, resulting in fatalities, infrastructure damages, and economic losses. Nevertheless, conventional ground-based monitoring techniques are often costly, time-consuming, and require considerable resources. Moreover, some landslide incidents occur in remote or hazardous locations, making ground-based observation and field investigation challenging or even impossible. Fortunately, the advancements in spaceborne remote sensing technology have led to the availability of large-scale and high-quality imagery, which can be utilized for various landslide-related applications, including identification, monitoring, analysis, and prediction. This efficient and cost-effective technology allows for remote monitoring and assessment of landslide risks and can significantly contribute to disaster management and mitigation efforts. Consequently, spaceborne remote sensing techniques have become vital for geohazard management in many countries, benefiting society by providing reliable downstream services. However, substantial effort is required to ensure that such benefits are provided. For establishing long-term data archives and reliable analyses, it is essential to maintain consistent and continued use of multi-sensor spaceborne remote sensing techniques. This will enable a more thorough understanding of the physical mechanisms responsible for slope instabilities, leading to better decision-making and development of effective mitigation strategies. Ultimately, this can reduce the impact of landslide hazards on the general public. The present dissertation contributes to this effort from the following perspectives: 1. To obtain a comprehensive understanding of spaceb

La gestion des risques est un domaine en constante évolution. L'intensité et la fréquence croissante d'événements environnementaux potentiellement dangereux forcent les parties prenantes à revoir la gestion de ces dangers. À mesure que la technologie évolue, de nouvelles méthodes et outils apparaissent afin de faciliter la prise de décision des gestionnaires. L’avènement des drones en tant qu’outil en est un bon exemple. Son utilisation a récemment augmenté en raison de sa grande polyvalence et de son efficacité dans plusieurs situations. La cartographie est l’un des domaines profitant du développement de cette technologie pour obtenir des résultats diversifiés, rapides et de bonnes qualités. Cette recherche combine la technologie des drones et la gestion des événements d'embâcles de glace. L'objectif est de ressortir les caractéristiques des embâcles par photogrammétrie, à l’aide d’images prises par drone. La photogrammétrie sera utilisée pour créer un modèle 3D, une orthomosaïque, ainsi qu’un modèle numérique d’élévation. La taille des embâcles, l'emplacement et le volume de glace seront des caractéristiques complémentaires pertinentes qui pourront être dérivées de ces produits et ainsi permettre d’outiller davantage les gestionnaires dans la gestion d’un événement d’embâcle. Risk management is always in progress. The increasing intensity and frequency of potentially dangerous environmental events forces stakeholders to review the management of these hazards. As technology evolves rapidly, new ways are emerging to help decision-making. The advent of unmanned aerial vehicles as a tool is a good example. Their use has increased recently due to their great versatility and efficiency. Cartography benefits from the development of this technology in order to obtain diversified, fast and good quality results. This research combines drone technology and ice jam risk management. The objective is to make an in-situ mapping of ice jam by drones, in order to gathe

The mainstream approach of social vulnerability to flood risk faces some challenges regarding its ability to address the complexity of its causal processes. The objective of this study was to analyse the causal processes of social vulnerability to flood impacts from a relational perspective. To this end, a social network analysis was performed that identified the conditions and causes of social vulnerability and systematically articulated the relationships between them. This analysis was tested on the specific case of flood risk on the coast of the province of Alicante (SE Spain). To ascertain the conditions and causes of social vulnerability to flood risk, a multidisciplinary group of local experts was consulted, and the resulting data processed in a relational way using Atlas.ti and Gephi softwares. The result was a social vulnerability network comprising 84 nodes and 189 edges distributed into four dimensions: the adaptive capacity of tourists, socio-economic structure, land use planning and risk management. The information was ranked for betweenness centrality, revealing the components with highest causal power of social vulnerability to social impacts in flooding events: low flood risk awareness, economic growth based on real estate boom, property speculation and lack of political interest in flood risk management. This proposal places emphasis on the driving forces of social vulnerability and not exclusively on the specific adaptive conditions of the population, which allows a strategic identification and management of generative forces that ultimately induce the social impacts of floods., L’approche dominante de la vulnérabilité sociale aux risques d’inondation est confrontée à certains défis concernant sa capacité à traiter la complexité des processus de causalité. L’objectif de notre étude est d’analyser d’un point de vue relationnel les processus qui produisent la vulnérabilité sociale dans les impacts des inondations. A cette fin, nous proposons une analyse des réseaux sociaux qui identifie et articule systématiquement les relations entre les conditions et les causes de la vulnérabilité sociale. Cette analyse est testée dans le cas spécifique du risque d’inondation sur la côte de la province d’Alicante (sud-est de l’Espagne). Afin de comprendre les conditions et les causes de la vulnérabilité sociale au risque d’inondation, un groupe multidisciplinaire d’experts locaux a été consulté et les données obtenues ont été traitées de manière relationnelle à l’aide des logiciels Atlas.ti et Gephi. Le résultat est un réseau de vulnérabilité sociale composé de 84 nœuds et 189 arêtes et distribué en 4 dimensions: capacité d’adaptation des touristes, structure socio-économique, planification de l’utilisation des terres et gestion des risques. Les informations ont été classées en fonction de la centralité de la relation entre les nœuds, révélant les composantes ayant le plus grand pouvoir causal de vulnérabilité aux impacts sociaux en cas d’inondations: faible sensibilisation au risque d’inondation, croissance économique basée sur le boom immobilier, spéculation immobilière et manque d’intérêt politique pour la gestion du risque d’inondation. Cette proposition met l’accent sur les forces motrices de la vulnérabilité sociale et non exclusivement sur les conditions d’adaptation spécifiques de la population, ce qui permet une identification et une gestion stratégiques des forces motrices qui induisent en fin de compte les impacts sociaux des inondations., El enfoque dominante de la vulnerabilidad social ante el riesgo de inundaciones se enfrenta a algunos retos relativos a su capacidad para abordar la complejidad de los procesos causales. El objetivo de nuestro estudio es analizar desde una perspectiva relacional los procesos que producen vulnerabilidad social en los efectos de las inundaciones. Para ello se plantea un análisis de redes sociales que identifica y articula sistemáticamente las relaciones entre las condiciones y las causas de la vulnerabilidad social. Este análisis se pone a prueba en el caso concreto del riesgo de inundaciones en la costa de la provincia de Alicante (Sudeste de España). Para conocer las condiciones y causas de la vulnerabilidad social ante el riesgo de inundaciones, se consultó a un grupo multidisciplinar de expertos locales y los datos resultantes fueron procesados de forma relacional empleando los softwares Atlas.ti y Gephi. El resultado fue una red de vulnerabilidad social compuesta por 84 nodos y 189 aristas y distribuida en 4 dimensiones: la capacidad de adaptación de los turistas, la estructura socioeconómica, la planificación del uso del suelo y la gestión del riesgo. La información se clasificó según la centralidad de la relación entre nodos, revelando los componentes con mayor potencia causal de la vulnerabilidad a los impactos sociales en caso de inundaciones: escasa concienciación sobre el riesgo de inundaciones, crecimiento económico basado en el boom inmobiliario, especulación inmobiliaria y falta de interés político en la gestión del riesgo de inundaciones. Esta propuesta pone el énfasis en las fuerzas motrices de la vulnerabilidad social y no exclusivamente en las condiciones adaptativas específicas de la población, lo que permite una identificación y gestión estratégica de las fuerzas generadoras que en última instancia inducen los impactos sociales de las inundaciones.

Early warning systems are an essential tool for managing flood emergencies. Alert and warning applications and mobile-phone messaging services have become increasingly widespread among major international emergency agencies as means of communicating risks to the population, and their effectiveness in reducing human and material damages during flood events is significant. Despite their crucial importance, one of the main challenges in the field of emergency communication is the lack of protocols for systematic and standardized production of warning messages. While emergency agencies produce messages on a diversity of topic areas, there are no protocols for structuring their content according to communication functions, exhaustive identification of the relevant areas of action, or classification of content according to different topics. With a view to this opportunity for improvement, the aim of this article is to propose a method for creating a catalog of warning messages enabling their systematic composition and organization. To exemplify the successive stages in the development of such a catalog, we present here the resources and methodological process followed by the authors of this article when commissioned with this task by the emergency services of the Valencian Autonomous Region (south-east Spain) for flood-risk communication. The warning message catalog was pilot tested with experts and user focus groups. Developing warning message catalogs offers a vital resource that can enhance the outreach and operability of warning systems in the current context of increased flood risk due to climate change.

Within the GIRD processes, there are several methodologies that can be applied to determine socioeconomic vulnerability and its treatment for calculating risk in a given territory. In this context, it is proposed to apply a multivariate methodology of factor analysis based on principal components based on data from the 2010 population and housing census at the sector level. The methodology described is based on the premise of reduction of factors or dimensions, based on their explained variance, forming a model that describes the reality of the socioeconomic environment of the commune under a risk context. For the definition of this indicator, it is necessary to determine flooding as the main threat. Among the main results is that the census sectors with the least probability of flood risk are three, four, five, seven and eight; with median probability one and two; while the most critical sector turned out to be sector six, with the highest risk probability due to the materialization of this type of threat., Dentro de los procesos de la GIRD, existen varias metodologías que se pueden aplicar para determinar la vulnerabilidad socioeconómica y su tratamiento para el cálculo del riesgo en un determinado territorio. Bajo este contexto, se propone aplicar una metodología multivariante de análisis factorial basado en componentes principales partiendo de datos del censo de población y vivienda 2010 al nivel de sectores. La metodología descrita parte de la premisa de reducción de factores o dimensiones, fundamentada en su varianza explicada, conformando un modelo que describe a la realidad del ámbito socioeconómico de la comuna bajo un contexto de riesgo. Para la definición de este indicador, se precisa determinar como amenaza principal a las inundaciones. Entre los principales resultados se tiene que los sectores censales con menor probabilidad al riesgo de inundaciones son tres, cuatro, cinco, siete y ocho; con mediana probabilidad uno y dos; mientras que el sector más crítico resultó ser el seis, con la más alta probabilidad al riesgo por la materialización a este tipo de amenaza.

Multi-hazard events, characterized by the simultaneous, cascading, or cumulative occurrence of multiple natural hazards, pose a significant threat to human lives and assets. This is primarily due to the cumulative and cascading effects arising from the interplay of various natural hazards across space and time. However, their identification is challenging, which is attributable to the complex nature of natural hazard interactions and the limited availability of multi-hazard observations. This study presents an approach for identifying multi-hazard events during the past 123 years (1900–2023) using the EM-DAT global disaster database. Leveraging the ‘associated hazard’ information in EM-DAT, multi-hazard events are detected and assessed in relation to their frequency, impact on human lives and assets, and reporting trends. The interactions between various combinations of natural hazard pairs are explored, reclassifying them into four categories: preconditioned/triggering, multivariate, temporally compounding, and spatially compounding multi-hazard events. The results show, globally, approximately 19 % of the 16,535 disasters recorded in EM-DAT can be classified as multi-hazard events. However, the multi-hazard events recorded in EM-DAT are disproportionately responsible for nearly 59 % of the estimated global economic losses. Conversely, single hazard events resulted in higher fatalities compared to multi-hazard events. The largest proportion of multi-hazard events are associated with floods, storms, and earthquakes. Landslides emerge as the predominant secondary hazards within multi-hazard pairs, primarily triggered by floods, storms, and earthquakes, with the majority of multi-hazard events exhibiting preconditioned/triggering and multivariate characteristics. There is a higher prevalence of multi-hazard events in Asia and North America, whilst temporal overlaps of multiple hazards predominate in Europe. These results can be used to increase the integration of mult

In the aftermath of natural hazards, opportunities often arise for society to make changes that prevent future losses. These changes can also have environmental impacts, increase preparedness, and contribute to sustainable development. Due to the loss of biodiversity and land degradation, there is an urgent need for actions promoting positive environmental changes. Reversing the trend of land degradation and biodiversity loss is motivated by various reasons, such as preserving ecosystem functions and services that offer protection against natural hazards and reducing drivers of climate change. However, due to land degradation, loss of ecosystems, and human settlements in hazard-prone areas, it is also necessary to take actions that reduce the risk of tsunamis by improving preparedness. Improved preparedness from a people-centered perspective is a crucial aspect of sustainable development. The four papers that make up this thesis present and apply two new frameworks— one to assess the environmental effect of human-made societal changes, and one to evaluate the maintenance of a TEWS (Tsunami Early Warning System) over time. The two frameworks capture two aspects of change after a natural hazard: i) environmental impacts and ii) Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The thesis focuses particularly on time, a common aspect in both frameworks. The results indicate that changes triggered by natural hazards have a dual nature in that their impact on the environment can be both positive and negative. The thesis also provides evidence that past natural hazards can create a delayed window, which can be used as an argument for nature conservation during the establishment of national parks. The framework for evaluating the maintenance of a TEWS shows how difficult it is to operate all parts of the warning chain over time, from tsunami detection to evacuation. If parts of the chain are not maintained, the warning system may not be reliable., Natural hazards can present opportunities for societal change. This thesis analyzes two types of changes: i) those with environmental impact and ii) those aimed at improving tsunami preparedness. It addresses a crucial gap in post-disaster literature by focusing on the environmental impacts of changes. In light of land exploitation and loss of biodiversity, it is critical to make changes that reverse these trends and support sustainable development. Unfortunately, not all natural hazards can be prevented. Tsunamis can severely threaten coastal communities, requiring preparedness and evacuation. A people-centered approach to preparedness is also an essential aspect of sustainable development. The thesis includes four papers that present and apply two new frameworks—one to assess the environmental impact of societal changes and another to evaluate the maintenance of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). The results reveal that changes, even if well-intentioned, made after natural hazards can have both positive and negative impacts on the environment. The TEWS maintenance framework also highlights the ongoing challenges in maintaining all warning system components.

Vietnam is among the top countries in the world at risk of natural hazards so that efficient real-time environment monitoring is becoming essential. The continuous development in information and communication technology is inspiring the development of the smart monitoring systems for environmental management and protection. This paper presents an energy efficient, long range sensor system for Internet of Things (IoT)-based smart environment monitoring and early warning. The proposed system combines the novel energy efficient temperature. Beat sensors integrated with the LoRaWAN communication protocol and web interface. The experimental results are achieved to clarify the efficiency of the proposed sensor system and its potential applications in the real systems.

Earth fissure structures are a common type of geohazard associated with geotechnical surface ruptures that can occur almost anywhere on the ground surface due to a variety of different mechanisms, and in most cases, these hazardous cracks have resulted in severe damage to infrastructure. Investigation of the structural characteristics of fissures in an active tectonic area (such as Birjand in eastern Iran) can improve our understanding of connections between the fissures and structural geology. The first reported earth fissures in NW Birjand are distributed along the North Birjand fault. Field observations and analysis of the detailed topography cross-sections using the real-time kinematic (RTK) technique have been used to infer the fissure development. Morphometric analysis of faults and fissures shows that the long axis of most fissure structures is distributed perpendicular to the strike of the North Birjand fault. The average volume strain in the study area was calculated to be 14.68 percent based on fissure geometry studies, with the maximum volume strain corresponding to the location of the North Birjand fault’s youngest splay. This splay formed fault-propagation folds with exposed fissure structures. This study shows that the fault-propagation folds in this system are subjected to the activity and evolution of the ground fissure as a result of the expansion of tensile stress.

Natural hazards are an important way for individuals to experience consequences of climate change. It has therefore been suggested that natural hazards could act as opportunities to increase individuals’ concerns about, and willingness to act on, climate change. The empirical evidence within the field is however mixed. Moreover, the research field is drawn back by methodological shortcomings, as studies rarely have been able to make valid pre-hazard assessments. A more accurate estimation of a possible causal effect is enabled in this study, as a survey mapping climate change opinions was conducted in Germany when the country was hit by a rare and severe hazard event, namely the European Floods. This provides an opportunity to examine the effect of hazard exposure on individuals’ levels of climate change concerns and willingness to adopt climate change-related actions. Three sets of hypotheses are tested using two-sample t-tests. The findings suggest that natural hazards have limited potential to act as teachable moments; climate change concerns may increase, but not willingness to take action. Political ideology is found to slightly moderate the effect between hazard exposure and climate change concerns, but only among right-leaning individuals. These findings make an important contribution to a mixed research field.

Flood risk is a product of hazard and vulnerability; these variables could appear in different ways within a given territory, depending on the magnitude with which they are presented, the influence on flood risk will depend. In this research work, it is proposed to study the influence of a methodology, with the objective of carrying out a hydrographic characterization of the territory, which allows distinguishing the possible existence of hazard and vulnerability scenarios. The methodology used is based on an exploratory, methodical, descriptive, deductive and probabilistic analysis; and considers flood risk management as the object of study and the hydrographic characterization of the watershed of the Sucúa canton as the field of action. It was decided to use Sucúa, city of Morona Santiago, province of Ecuador, as a case study, because its urban area presents a flood risk, due to its proximity to the discharge or exit point of a hydrographic basin, which has a high water potential, besides being the appropriate scenario for the application of theories and analysis processes, thanks to its topography and the meteorological conditions registered in the free access databases of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Ecuador. Finally, an analysis was obtained, supported by the different parameters of flood risk warning, obtained through hydrographic characterization; a scenario that positively influences the urban development of the canton and will allow making appropriate decisions to manage the flood risk of its urban area., O risco de inundação é um produto de perigo e vulnerabilidade. Estas variáveis podem aparecer sob diferentes formas num determinado território e, dependendo da magnitude com que aparecem, a influência sobre o risco de inundação dependerá da sua magnitude. Neste trabalho de investigação, propomos estudar a influência de uma metodologia, com o objectivo de realizar uma caracterização hidrográfica do território, que nos permitirá distinguir a possível existência de cenários de perigo e vulnerabilidade. A metodologia utilizada baseia-se numa análise exploratória, metódica, descritiva, dedutiva e probabilística, e considera a gestão dos riscos de inundação como objecto de estudo e a caracterização hidrográfica da bacia do cantão de Sucúa como campo de acção. Foi decidido utilizar Sucúa, uma cidade de Morona Santiago, província do Equador, como estudo de caso, porque a sua área urbana está em risco de inundação, devido à sua proximidade do ponto de descarga ou saída de uma bacia hidrográfica, que tem um elevado potencial hídrico, além de ser o cenário ideal para a aplicação de teorias e processos de análise, graças à sua topografia e às condições meteorológicas registadas nas bases de dados de livre acesso do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia, Equador. Finalmente, foi obtida uma análise, apoiada pelos diferentes parâmetros de aviso de risco de inundação obtidos através da caracterização hidrográfica; um cenário que tem uma influência positiva no desenvolvimento urbano do cantão e que permitirá tomar decisões adequadas para gerir o risco de inundação da sua zona urbana, El riesgo de inundación es producto de la amenaza y vulnerabilidad, estas variables podrían aparecer de distintas formas dentro de un determinado territorio, dependiendo de la magnitud con la que se presenten, será la influencia en el riesgo de inundación. En este trabajo investigativo, se propone estudiar la influencia de una metodología, con el objetivo de realizar una caracterización hidrográfica del territorio, que permita distinguir la posible existencia de los escenarios de amenaza y vulnerabilidad. La metodología empleada se basa en un análisis exploratorio, metódico, descriptivo, deductivo, probabilístico; y considera como objeto de estudio la gestión del riesgo de inundación y cómo campo de acción la caracterización hidrográfica de la cuenca del cantón Sucúa. Se decide emplear como caso de estudio a Sucúa, ciudad de Morona Santiago, provincia de Ecuador; debido a que, su zona urbana presenta el riesgo de inundación, a causa de la cercanía al punto de descarga o salida de una cuenca hidrográfica, que presenta un alto potencial hídrico, además de ser el escenario propicio para la aplicación de teorías y procesos de análisis, gracias a su topografía y a las condiciones meteorológicas registradas en las bases de datos de libre acceso del Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología, Ecuador. Finalmente, se obtuvo un análisis sustentado por los distintos parámetros de alerta de riesgo de inundación, obtenidos mediante la caracterización hidrográfica; escenario que influye positivamente en el desarrollo urbano del cantón y permitirá tomar decisiones adecuadas, para gestionar el riesgo de inundación de su zona urbana.

Both the number of disasters in the U.S. and federal outlays following disasters are rising. Thus, evaluating the impact of varying natural hazards on the built environment and communities rapidly and at various spatial scales is of the utmost importance. Many hazards can cause significant and repetitive economic and social damages. This dissertation is a collection of studies that broadly evaluates resilience outcomes in urban areas using data-driven approaches. I do this over three chapters, each of which explores a unique aspect of hazards and their impact on society. The first two chapters are devoted to federal disaster programs aimed at supporting recovery and building resilience. I especially seek to understand how characteristics of hazards intersect with aspects of the physical and social environment to drive federal intervention. The final chapter explores the heterogenous impacts of natural hazards in urban communities and how disparities correlate with various socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. The first two studies examine two major federal disaster programs in the U.S. – FEMA Public Assistance (PA) and FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) – at varying spatial and temporal scales. Both leverage parametric and non-parametric statistical learning algorithms to understand how measures of hazard intensity and local factors drive federal intervention. These studies could be used by federal/state-level resource managers for planning the level of aid that may be required after a disaster. This study can also potentially be useful for decision-makers to identify the potential causes of increased disaster spending over time. In the final chapter, I evaluate the links between public transit disruptions, socioeconomic characteristics, and precipitation. By analyzing the spatial distribution and clustering of infrastructure disruptions, I identify the area(s) susceptible to a disproportionate amount of disruptions. Additionally, spatial statisti

Flexible, slit, and rigid barriers are common countermeasures to mitigate natural geophysical mass flows, but presently, quantitative comparisons of their performance are lacking, due to the challenges involved in accurately representing the multi-body and multi-phase interactions. This study presents a numerical appraisal on this issue using a physics-based coupled computational fluid dynamics and discrete element method (CFD-DEM). A geophysical flow is considered as a mixture of discrete gap-graded particles (DEM) and a continuous viscous slurry (CFD), whereas a permeable and deformable barrier structure can be modeled by DEM. The in-flow multiphase interactions and flow-barrier interactions can be rigorously modeled by a coupling scheme between DEM and CFD. Our numerical simulations reasonably capture both field and experimental observations on key features of flow-barrier interactions and barrier responses. The different intercepting mechanisms of three barriers via pile-up and runup modes are revealed by qualitative and quantitative characterizations. Flexible barriers perform the best under runup mode regarding much larger peak load reduction ratios (up to 89%) due to their high permeability and Fr-dependent load-deflection behavior. We further compile a barrier-specific design diagram that suggests existing analytical models calibrated by limited experiments may underestimate the peak impact for slit and rigid barriers due to their neglect of large solid particles in the impinging flows while leading to overestimations for flexible barriers owing to inappropriate representations of barrier permeability and structural deformability. Our findings may offer a basis for model improvements and developments in practical barrier selection and design. © 2022. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

The application of specialized natural hazard mapping is an absolute necessity for the management and prevention of natural hazard events. This paper treats the description of all the procedures carried out in order to produce a map of vulnerability and susceptibility to cave-ins, calculated and evaluated by the multicriteria method (AHP) and by using the GIS tool in the old Medina of Beni Mellal, which is recognized from time to time by cave-ins. The objective of this study is to develop a new method for analyzing the vulnerability of cavities to collapse, which presents a real risk in the urban area of the old cities. The methodology, applied to the old city of Beni-Mellal, consists in identifying and quantifying the stakes linked to the collapse of a cavity using a geographic information system. The weight of each parameter and factor exposed in the vulnerability was estimated using the hierarchical multicriteria method (AHP). The result is presented in the form of a spatialized and synthetic vulnerability map. The detection, mapping and assessment of areas vulnerable to the collapse of these cavities, particularly for large areas of the city, offers the possibility of reducing damage by intervening upstream and introducing preventive and corrective measures against any risk of collapse in the areas deemed vulnerable by our study. The maps show three zones with different degrees of vulnerability. The low and medium vulnerability zones occupy respectively 30 and 20% of the total area of the old city, while the high and very high vulnerability zones occupy respectively 16% and 4%.

A multi-criteria risk analysis to identify and to rank the most critical UNESCO World Heritage Sites (WHSs) in Europe was implemented in the framework of the JPI-CH PROTHEGO project. The presented approach considers three natural geo-hazards (i.e. landsliding, seismic shaking and volcanic activity) for which homogenous European hazard maps are available. The methodology is based on a quantitative and reproducible heuristic assessment of risk through the development of a new UNESCO Risk Index (URI), which combines the level of hazard with a potential damage vector. The latter expresses the expected level of damage as a function of the type of heritage site (monuments, cultural routes, rock-art sites, cultural landscapes, earthworks/hominid sites, walls and natural sites), the position with respect to the ground (underground or overground) and the hazard type. The methodology was applied both to the entire WHS site and to the different properties that compose the site, with the purpose of identifying areas, inside the same site, with different level of risk. At European scale, the spatial distribution of risk reflects the fact that only three hazards were implemented in the analysis so far, with highest values in the Mediterranean area due to the importance of seismic hazard.

La formación de una Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos en el sureste peninsular supuso la génesis de un episodio de precipitaciones torrenciales. Grandes acumulados de lluvia se recogieron en un periodo de tiempo corto, lo que dio lugar a una fuerte escorrentía que elevó el caudal de ramblas y barrancos provocando avenidas en la Vega Baja alicantina y en el Campo de Cartagena. El potencial de estas inundaciones y de sus consecuencias podría haberse agravado debido a un aumento considerable de la superficie impermeable, en concreto de espacios urbanos, fruto de las notables transformaciones realizadas en estas áreas, en las últimas décadas., A formação de uma Depressão Isolada em Níveis Altos no sudeste peninsular supôs a génese de um episódio de precipitações torrenciais. Grandes acumulações de chuva ocorreram num curto período de tempo, o que deu origem a uma forte escorrência que elevou o fluxo de ravinas e barrancos, provocando inundações fluviais na Vega Baja alicantina e no Campo de Cartagena. O potencial destas inundações e das suas consequências poderá ter-se agravado devido a um aumento considerável da superfície impermeável, nomeadamente de espaços urbanos, resultado das notáveis transformações realizadas nestas áreas nas últimas décadas., The formation of a Cutoff low in the southeast of the peninsula was the genesis of an episode of torrential rainfall. Large accumulations of rain were collected in a short period of time, which resulted in a strong runoff that raised the flow of ravines and wadis causing floods in the Vega Baja and Campo de Cartagena. The potential of these floods and their consequences could have been aggravated by a considerable increase in the impermeable surface, in particular of urban spaces, as a result of the remarkable transformations made in these areas in recent decades.

Due to the weaknesses of the technocratic model in providing integrated, sustainable flood risk management, a new approach has emerged aimed at promoting adaptive strategies by means of non-structural measures, such as raising awareness among exposed populations and improving their adaptive response to risk. However, the emerging nature of these measures makes it necessary to analyse the way in which this social approach is being implemented in the day-to-day practice of flood risk management. Thus the aim of this paper is to assess the integration of social actions of risk response and public participation into risk management processes. To this end, 14 Spanish flood risk management plans (FRMPs) were reviewed and codified by means of a documentary content analysis. The coding process was designed according to the models of social capacity building and participatory assessment in flood risk management. The resulting analysis provided information on the characteristics of participatory processes in the development of FRMPs and on five areas of social initiatives for capacity building: knowledge, financing, motivation, governance and networks. The results revealed the limited quality of participatory processes due to procedural weaknesses and low representation of social actors. Also, social actions were focused on the promotion of risk awareness and showed a lack of technical detail that reduced their potential for implementation. Thus this paper argues that the social approach has not been transferred to practice in flood risk management, since the development of measures is still predominantly shaped by the traditional technocratic approach.

In the context of climate change, a significant increase in the flood risk is expected, which may lead to an intensification of the social impacts of disasters. Social impacts significantly affect the recovery processes of individuals, social groups, and institutions in the medium and long term. Hence, the management of such impacts throughout the disaster life cycle is essential. International institutions and frameworks for disaster risk reduction have claimed the need to generate tools for the systematic assessment and management of social impacts of floods. Recently, an innovative line of research has emerged aimed at adapting social impact assessment (SIA), usually directed at the evaluation of planned interventions (programs, plans and projects), to the field of environmental disasters. In order to contribute to academic efforts in this emerging field, this paper puts forward, through a systematic literature review based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria, an SIA methodological proposal for the identification, assessment and systematic management of the social impacts of flood events. This methodological proposal covers the three phases of the disaster cycle: (1) pre-event (preparedness), allowing the anticipation of potential impacts and supporting the proposal of preventive measures; (2) event (response), facilitating a strategic mobilization of resources and technical support towards previously identified critical disaster areas; and (3) post-event (recovery), evaluating the evolutionary dynamics of impacts, proposing measures to avoid their socio-territorial embedding and accelerating recovery processes. This tool is designed for strategic use by policy makers and managers responsible for flood risk management and regional development.

Despite the significantly large number of deaths and injuries, the property loses and service downtime, lightning is not treated as a serious natural hazard in many countries of which lightning ground flash density is notably high. In this chapter, we highlight this lack of attention from both government and non-governmental sectors as a substantial barrier to curb lightning related losses. The ignorance of experts and statutory bodies that control the implementation of standards and guidelines have paved the way to the flooding of fraudulent products and technologies into the respective countries. The attitudinal issues and negligence of responsibilities of engineering and managerial capacities of both private and government sectors contributes to the mishaps and losses due to lightning-related incidents. The chapter finally discusses possible mechanisms of promoting lightning protection as business ventures in less-privileged communities by developing entrepreneurship among people having low to medium levels of technical know-how., QC 20220421

Environments along the coast of Greenland are rapidly changing under the influence of a warming climate in the Arctic. To better understand the changes in the coastal environments, we performed researches in the Qaanaaq region in northwestern Greenland as a part of the ArCS (Arctic Challenge for Sustainability) Project. Mass loss of ice caps and marine-terminating outlet glaciers were quantified by field and satellite observations. Measurements and sampling in fjords revealed the important role of glacial meltwater discharge in marine ecosystems. Flooding of a glacial stream in Qaanaaq and landslides in a nearby settlement were investigated to identify the drivers of the incidents. Our study observed rapid changes in the coastal environments, and their critical impact on the society in Qaanaaq. We organized workshops with the residents to absorb local and indigenous knowledge, as well as to share the results and data obtained in the project. Continuous effort towards obtaining long-term observations requiring involvement of local communities is crucial to contribute to a sustainable future in Greenland.

Environments along the coast of Greenland are rapidly changing under the influence of a warming climate in the Arctic. To better understand the changes in the coastal environments, we performed researches in the Qaanaaq region in northwestern Greenland as a part of the ArCS (Arctic Challenge for Sustainability) Project. Mass loss of ice caps and marine-terminating outlet glaciers were quantified by field and satellite observations. Measurements and sampling in fjords revealed the important role of glacial meltwater discharge in marine ecosystems. Flooding of a glacial stream in Qaanaaq and landslides in a nearby settlement were investigated to identify the drivers of the incidents. Our study observed rapid changes in the coastal environments, and their critical impact on the society in Qaanaaq. We organized workshops with the residents to absorb local and indigenous knowledge, as well as to share the results and data obtained in the project. Continuous effort towards obtaining long-term observations requiring involvement of local communities is crucial to contribute to a sustainable future in Greenland.

More than 75% of Colombia's 42 million people live in urban areas located in the mountains and are exposed to numerous natural hazards: floods, flash floods, landslides, earthquakes and volcanism. The Armero disaster of 1985 triggered the creation of the National System for Disaster Prevention and Relief. National, regional and local committees started to operate across the country, accompanied by education commissions that produced diverse audiovisual materials to help educate people living in these areas. The experiences of working with local committees gained during the last two decades are presented here. Case histories are from cities such as Pereira, Manizales and Medellín, where the local committees are run by people with little or no formal education but who understand that they must participate as a group to prevent or mitigate the effects of natural disasters. The co-operation between technical experts and trained residents represents an outstanding example of good communication and co-operation for urban populations living in dangerous areas. Although many problems have yet to be resolved, these case histories show that this type of organization seems to be more effective than direct intervention from national government agencies. The models of community participation and communication developed and refined here may have application to similar social environments in other countries. © 2008 Geological Society of London.

More than 75% of Colombia's 42 million people live in urban areas located in the mountains and are exposed to numerous natural hazards: floods, flash floods, landslides, earthquakes and volcanism. The Armero disaster of 1985 triggered the creation of the National System for Disaster Prevention and Relief. National, regional and local committees started to operate across the country, accompanied by education commissions that produced diverse audiovisual materials to help educate people living in these areas. The experiences of working with local committees gained during the last two decades are presented here. Case histories are from cities such as Pereira, Manizales and Medellín, where the local committees are run by people with little or no formal education but who understand that they must participate as a group to prevent or mitigate the effects of natural disasters. The co-operation between technical experts and trained residents represents an outstanding example of good communication and co-operation for urban populations living in dangerous areas. Although many problems have yet to be resolved, these case histories show that this type of organization seems to be more effective than direct intervention from national government agencies. The models of community participation and communication developed and refined here may have application to similar social environments in other countries. © 2008 Geological Society of London.

In Spain, floods represent the danger originated in nature that causes greatest loss to both human life and economy. Understanding the risk as a social construction, evaluation of the modification results proves to be crucial in order to improve the exposed population's adaptation. The use of indices is one of the several methods used to carry carry through those evaluations. In the present research we used a replica of the SOVI® (Social Vulnerability Index), one of the most used worldwide indices and its adaptation has been implemented in an area of ​​special sensitivity for floods: the Mediterranean coast in the Region of Murcia and the Valencian Community (Spain). The results obtained show a greater social vulnerability in non-floodable census sections than in those that can be flooded and reveal a pattern of social inequality in areas where the hydrographic network presents an ephemeral and sudden runoff such as the ramblas., En España, las inundaciones representan el peligro con origen en la naturaleza que mayores pérdidas ocasiona, tanto económicas como humanas. Entendido el riesgo como una construcción social, la evaluación de la vulnerabilidad, resulta crucial para mejorar la adaptación de la población expuesta. Entre los métodos empleados para llevar a cabo esas evaluaciones está el uso de índices. En el presente estudio empleamos una réplica del SOVI® (Social Vulnerability Index), uno de los más ampliamente utilizados a nivel mundial y cuya integración se ha puesto en práctica en un área de especial sensibilidad ante las inundaciones, el litoral mediterráneo de la Región de Murcia y la Comunidad Valenciana (España). Los resultados obtenidos evidencian una mayor vulnerabilidad social en secciones censales no inundables que en las inundables y pone de manifiesto un patrón de desigualdad social en ámbitos donde la red hidrográfica presenta un funcionamiento efímero y súbito como las ramblas.

submitted by Moritz Waas, BSc., Zusammenfassung in deutscher Sprache, University of Innsbruck, Masterarbeit, 2020, (VLID)4949736

Natural hazards and disaster reconnaissance investigations have provided many lessons for the research and practice communities and have greatly improved our scientific understanding of extreme events. Yet, many challenges remain for these communities, including improving our ability to model hazards, make decisions in the face of uncertainty, enhance community resilience, and mitigate risk. State-of-the-art instrumentation and mobile data collection applications have significantly advanced the ability of field investigation teams to capture quickly perishable data in post-disaster settings. The NHERI RAPID Facility convened a community workshop of experts in the professional, government, and academic sectors to determine reconnaissance data needs and opportunities, and to identify the broader challenges facing the reconnaissance community that hinder data collection and use. Participants highlighted that field teams face many practical and operational challenges before and during reconnaissance investigations, including logistics concerns, safety issues, emotional trauma, and after-returning, issues with data processing and analysis. Field teams have executed many effective missions. Among the factors contributing to successful reconnaissance are having local contacts, effective teamwork, and pre-event training. Continued progress in natural hazard reconnaissance requires adaptation of new, strategic approaches that acquire and integrate data over a range of temporal, spatial, and social scales across disciplines.

Some of the most devastating natural events on Earth, such as earthquakes and tropical cyclones, are prone to trigger other natural events, critical infrastructure failures, and socioeconomic disruptions. Man-made disasters may have similar effects, although to a lesser degree. We investigate the space of possible interactions between 19 types of loss-generating events, first by encoding possible one-to-one interactions into an adjacency matrix A, and second by calculating the interaction matrix M of emergent chains-of-events. We first present the impact of 24 topologies of A on M to illustrate the non-trivial patterns of cascading processes, in terms of the space of possibilities covered and of interaction amplification by feedback loops. We then encode A from 29 historical cases of cascading disasters and compute the matching matrix M. We observe, subject to data incompleteness, emergent cascading behaviors in the technological and socioeconomic systems, across all possible triggers (natural or man-made); disease is also a systematic emergent phenomenon. We find interactions being mostly amplified via two events: network failure and business interruption, the two events with the highest in-degree and betweenness centralities. This analysis demonstrates how cascading disasters grow in and cross over natural, technological, and socioeconomic systems.

In 2020, the world and foremost vulnerable groups are facing “new” challenges. Dual crises of coexisting hazards like natural hazards occurring amid the COVID-19 pandemic has become more than a prediction. Hence, this thesis is a case study of dual crises and of how organisations and actors act upon those crises. With the aim to examine how the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) includes vulnerable groups in disaster risk reduction related matters amid the COVID-19 pandemic, a qualitative text analysis has been performed on the selection of five of UNDRR’s publications. Developed from the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction’s four ‘Priorities for Action’ guidelines, four analytical questions were asked to the material. The findings suggest that UNDRR does include vulnerable groups by mainly addressing the lack of resilience among vulnerable groups. However, a lack of concrete suggestions on how to strengthen vulnerable groups resilience and effective responses in the long term was noted. Due to the short time frame in which COVID-19 has existed, the research on vulnerable groups in dual crises of various hazards are still scarce, but nevertheless very much needed as to develop responses adapted towards both biological hazard and natural hazard impacts.

Climate change is not new, but the acceleration is. Through the decades, people have had to adapt to changes in climatic conditions, which are visible in our built heritage. Despite ongoing discussions regarding historic climate adaptation, this is seldom connected to the management of cultural heritage. Relevant literature and a review of three projects form the background for presenting a work model for developing knowledge-based adaptation strategies at municipality level with a retrospective approach. This is followed by examples of the kinds of data that can be retrieved by incorporating historic adaptation measures. The results show that one can collect specific local information on areas of settlement, preferable materials and adapted building structures but cannot deem them as measures for climate related issues. This is an additional interpretation. However, this article clarifies positive outcomes if historical adaptation measures are included in cultural heritage management. Increased knowledge related to specific localities may benefit the local authorities and enhance the quality of cultural heritage management and urban planning.

Natural hazards impact millions of people globally and lead to billions of dollars of economic loss each year. New Zealand is one of many countries vulnerable to multiple natural hazards including earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic eruption, and high impact weather. Despite these well-known risks, many residents of the capital city of Wellington have taken few steps to be more prepared. This location, therefore, presented an appropriate population for the investigations within this thesis. Decades of social science research has identified a multitude of factors related to preparation behaviour. However, many of these factors, such as risk perception and previous experience of natural hazards, are difficult to manipulate successfully in broad public education campaigns. The first main aim of this thesis was therefore to identify thoughts and beliefs about preparing which predict people’s preparation behaviour, with the aim of identifying specific factors which can be efficiently and effectively targeted in campaigns encouraging preparation. This research was structured using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) which proposes a specific set of cognitions that affect intention formation as well as beliefs which inform those cognitions. In addition to using this model to structure the investigation, this thesis undertook several refinements and extensions to the model to address inconsistencies within TPB research. The intent of doing so was to provide a set of findings and a questionnaire which are not limited by those inconsistencies and which can be adapted for a range of behavioural contexts. Four empirical studies were carried out, involving a total of 2,298 participants from the general population. Study 1 tested the applicability of this theory to the context of natural disaster preparation and clarified the nature of that context. Using an online survey of 722 residents of the urban Wellington region, Study 1 demonstrated low levels of preparation, identified not

It is commonly assumed that personal experiences of a changing climate will influence people’s attitudes to the extent that they will be more likely to acknowledge anthropogenic climate change as a real threat and therefore be more willing to accept both mitigation and adaptation efforts. In the article, the authors examine how survey participants’ personal experiences of extreme events and climate-related changes in the natural environment influenced their perceptions of climate change. Using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Norway in 2015 and the results of logistic regressions, the authors find that individual observations of changes in nature were linked to higher levels of concern with regard to climate change, as well as to attitudes that were more positive towards personal mitigation and adaption efforts. Somewhat counter-intuitively, they also find that participants who had personally experienced a natural hazard event were less concerned about climate change compared with participants without such experiences. The authors conclude that personal experience of the consequences of climate change may in some cases have a limited effect on enhancing people’s concerns about climate change.

Natural hazards and disaster reconnaissance investigations have provided many lessons for the research and practice communities and have greatly improved our scientific understanding of extreme events. Yet, many challenges remain for these communities, including improving our ability to model hazards, make decisions in the face of uncertainty, enhance community resilience, and mitigate risk. State-of-the-art instrumentation and mobile data collection applications have significantly advanced the ability of field investigation teams to capture quickly perishable data in post-disaster settings. The NHERI RAPID Facility convened a community workshop of experts in the professional, government, and academic sectors to determine reconnaissance data needs and opportunities, and to identify the broader challenges facing the reconnaissance community that hinder data collection and use. Participants highlighted that field teams face many practical and operational challenges before and during reconnaissance investigations, including logistics concerns, safety issues, emotional trauma, and after-returning, issues with data processing and analysis. Field teams have executed many effective missions. Among the factors contributing to successful reconnaissance are having local contacts, effective teamwork, and pre-event training. Continued progress in natural hazard reconnaissance requires adaptation of new, strategic approaches that acquire and integrate data over a range of temporal, spatial, and social scales across disciplines.

River flooding is a major natural hazard worldwide, whose prediction is impaired by limited understanding of the interplay of processes triggering floods within large regions. In this study we use machine learning techniques such as decision trees and random forests to pinpoint spatio-temporal features of precipitation and catchment wetness states which led to floods among 177 267 rainfall-runoff events observed in 373 German river basins. In mountainous catchments with high annual precipitation rates and shallow soils, event rainfall characteristics primarily control flood occurrence, while wetness conditions and the spatial interplay between rainfall and catchment soil moisture drive flood occurrence even more than event rainfall volume in drier basins. The existence of a snow cover also enhances flood occurrence. The identified ingredients and regional flavors shed new light on the spatial dynamics of hydro-meteorological processes leading to floods and foster regional adaptation of flood management strategies and early warning systems.

In north of Iran, flood is one of the most important natural hazards that annually inflict great economic damages on humankind infrastructures and natural ecosystems. The Kiasar watershed is known as one of the critical areas in north of Iran, due to numerous floods and waste of water and soil resources, as well as related economic and ecological losses. However, a comprehensive and systematic research to identify flood-prone areas, which may help to establish management and conservation measures, has not been carried out yet. Therefore, this study tested four methods: evidential belief function (EBF), frequency ratio (FR), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity To ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Vlse Kriterijumsk Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) for flood hazard susceptibility mapping (FHSM) in this area. These were combined in two methodological frameworks involving statistical and multi-criteria decision making approaches. The efficiency of statistical and multi-criteria methods in FHSM were compared by using area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, seed cell area index and frequency ratio. A database containing flood inventory maps and flood-related conditioning factors was established for this watershed. The flood inventory maps produced included 132 flood conditions, which were randomly classified into two groups, for training (70%) and validation (30%). Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) indicated that slope, distance to stream and land use/land cover are of key importance in flood occurrence in the study catchment. In validation results, the EBF model had a better prediction rate (0.987) and success rate (0.946) than FR, TOPSIS and VIKOR (prediction rate 0.917, 0.888, and 0.810; success rate 0.939, 0.904, and 0.735, respectively). Based on their frequency ratio and seed cell area index values, all models except VIKOR showed acceptable accuracy of classification.

In order to assess the rainfall erosivity in the Pannonian basin, several parameters which describe distribution, concentration and variability of precipitation were used, as well as 9 extreme precipitation indices. The precipitation data is obtained from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset project for the period 1961-2014, for 8 meteorological stations in northern Serbia, 5 in Hungary and 1 in eastern Croatia. The extreme values of precipitation were calculated following the indices developed by the ETCCDI. RclimDex software package was used for indices calculation. Based on statistical analysis and the calculated values, the results have been presented with Geographic Information System (GIS) to point out the most vulnerable parts of the Pannonian basin, with regard to pluvial erosion. This study presents the first result of combined rainfall erosivity and extreme precipitation indices for the investigated area. Results of PCI indicate presence of moderate precipitation concentration (mean value 11.6). Trend analysis of FI (mean value 22.7) and MFI (mean value 70.2) implies a shift from being largely in the low erosivity class, to being completely in the moderate erosivity class in the future, thus indicating an increase in rainfall erosivity for most of the investigated area (except in the northwestern parts). Furthermore, the observed precipitation extremes suggest that both the amount and the intensity of precipitation are increasing. The knowledge about the areas affected by strong soil erosion could lead to introducing effective measures in order to reduce it. Long term analysis of rainfall erosivity is a significant step concerning flood prevention, hazard mitigation, ecosystem services, land use change and agricultural production.

Convective precipitation is intensifying in many regions, but potential implications of shifts in precipitation types on impacts have not been quantified. Furthermore, risk assessments often focus on rare extremes, but also more frequent hydro-meteorological events burden private and public budgets. Here synoptic, hydrological, meteorological, and socio-economic data are merged to analyse 25 years of damage claims in 480 Austrian municipalities. Exceedance probabilities of discharge and precipitation associated with damage reports are calculated and compared for convective and stratiform weather patterns. During April to November, 60% of claims are reported under convective conditions. Irrespective of the weather type, most of the accumulated cost links to minor hazard levels, not only indicating that frequent events are a highly relevant expense factor, but also pointing to deficiencies in observational data. High uncertainty in damage costs attributable to extreme events demonstrates the questionable reliability of calculating low-frequency event return levels. Significant differences exist among weather types. Stratiform weather types are up to 10 times more often associated with damaging extreme discharge or precipitation, while convective weather shows the highest nuisance level contributions. The results show that changes in convective precipitation are pertinent to risk management as convective weather types have contributed significantly to damage in the past., Fonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung W 1256-G15, Version of record

Infrastructures in Japan are always exposed to threats of natural hazards. When structures are damaged, it is necessary to estimate cost of restoration and request budget to take necessary measure. To assist this procedure, JACIC Foundation developed a software tool for cost estimation of restoration of damaged sites. The tool is a combination of close range photogrammetry and CAD. For photogrammetry, compact digital cameras are available. The tool runs on a personal computer and is easy to use and cost effective. This paper shows basic idea, configuration and usage of the tool.

The area of Nyando wetlands experience floods almost every year due to heavy rainfall in the surrounding highlands. This area is populated, and this thesis aims to understand how the risk acceptance is developed. During a field study in the subject area, observations and interviews were conducted to create a qualitative research based on the respondent’s perceptions about human values, risks, their risk reduction and their opportunities. Culture and traditions together with the possibilities of agriculture made the people willing to stay, despite the reoccurring floods and droughts. The natural hazards were forceful, and many people relied on the government or NGO’s to come up with sustainable solutions., The people living in areas subject to perennially floods are tolerating their situation in living in a high-risk area. This is the conclusion of a report through a fieldwork in social study of the peoples’ risk perception.

Wildfire can become a catastrophic natural hazard. Grasslands are the most common fuel type in Australia with nearly 75% coverage. There are multiple factors, particularly weather and fuel conditions, which dictate the severity of grassland fire. While grassland fires are very responsive to weather conditions, availability and variability in fuels are also important drivers. Here, grassland fuel availability and variability are studied by examining the degree of curing (DOC) and fuel load. DOC is the percentage proportion of dead material in the fuel bed (100% DOC indicates a fully cured grassland). Satellite data, including recently developed microwave based vegetation optical depth (VOD) and normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) along with field observed data, are used to calibrate and evaluate satellite estimated DOC and fuel load models over Australia. Gridded, 8 day estimated DOC is derived via a regression analysis of VOD and NDVI, while gridded, annual estimated fuel load is constructed from aboveground biomass carbon derived from VOD. Both DOC and fuel load have persistent spatial variability across Australia. DOC has a continental mean of 85.7% and spatial standard deviation of 20.4%, while grassland fuel load has a mean of 5.9 t ha-1 and standard deviation of 2.5 t ha-1 across all years. DOC shows strong temporal variation in southeast and southwest Australia, while fuel load shows strong temporal variation towards the east coast. Their continental mean temporal standard variations are 11.9% and 0.5 t ha-1, respectively. Both satellite based DOC and fuel load data are then used in fire spread models (Phoenix RapidFire and Spark) to assess the changes in modelled grassland rate of spread due to spatial variability of DOC and fuel load. Rate of spread experiments are conducted using: 1) idealised experiments with artificial DOC, fuel load, and weather; and 2) realistic experiments using satellite based DOC and fuel load along with weather station dat

Torrential floods are the most frequent natural hazard events in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The increase of intensive rains in Bosnia and Herzegovina over last years, as a consequence of the climate changes, has triggered many torrential floods, which have generated a lot of damages and losses of human lives. This study was focused on development of torrential susceptibility model using GMM Method and GIS in the Vrbas river basin as an attempt to create a new methodological approach which can be used on other river basins in Bosnia and Herzegovina. First, a total of 174 torrential basins were identified in the Vrbas river basin, as a base for creating an inventory map, which was a base map for the assessment of torrential floods susceptibility. The GIS Matrix Method and six influencing factors were used for generation of Torrential Flood Susceptibility Model. Based on the obtained values of Torrential Flood Susceptibility Model for the Vrbas river basin, 45.52% of the study area is within strong and very strong susceptibility category. The Torrential Flood Susceptibility Model was validated using a "degree of fit" method. Validation indicators of the TFSM show that the 80.04% are in the category of strong and very strong susceptibility, while only 4.37% are in the category of very low and low susceptibility. This fact suggests that used methodology based on GMM method and used influencing factors enable delimitation of the area with high and very high susceptibility to torrential floods into the Vrbas basin. Therefore, used methodological approach represents a good base for future research, and it has potential for the practical use and should be tested in other river basins in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

International relations and disaster studies have much to gain by thinking critically about their respective theoretical and epistemological assumptions. Yet, few studies to date have sought to assess the potential value of linking these two disciplines. This paper begins to address this short-fall by examining the relationship between disasters and conflict as a research sphere that intersects international relations and disaster studies. Through an analysis of whether or not disasters contribute to intranational and international conflict, this paper not only provides a review of the state of the art, but also serves to invite scholars to reflect on related concepts from other fields to strengthen their own approaches to the study of disasters in an international setting. An evaluation of the conceptual and theoretical contributions of each subject area provides useful heuristics for the development of disaster–conflict scholarship and encourages alternative modes of knowledge production through interdisciplinarity.

Damaged infrastructures cause costly delays and losses. In this study, a collective learning framework and the theory of loops of learning are applied to a case study to develop a conceptual model on how lessons learned may be put to more effective use. Structures for systematic learning from events may serve as important tools in proactive adaptation for a more resilient infrastructure in future. This article studies an avalanche blocking a railway and an adjacent road in northern Sweden, which involves several interdependencies of critical infrastructures and actors. To enhance resilience future risk assessment and SWOT analyses should include the effects from a changing climate on the vulnerabilities of interdependence among multiple stakeholders and infrastructures. Knowledge-sharing foremost resulted in single-loop learning, leading to incremental changes. Respondents expressed an understanding of the importance of double-loops feedback but sensed that they lacked incentives from top levels in the organization for future reporting of experiences. This lack of incentives may impede establishing collective memory. The findings of this study can be used to improve policy recommendations, and support building resilience through products of learning.

In the Ionian Sea, the subduction of the Nubia plate underneath the Eurasia plate leads to an important sediment remobilization on the Calabrian Arc and the Mediterranean Ridge. These events are often associated with earthquakes and tsunamis. In this study, we analyze gravity-driven deposits in order to establish their recurrence time on the Calabrian Arc and the western Mediterranean Ridge. Four gravity cores collected on ridges and slope basins of accretionary prisms record turbidites, megaturbidites, slumping and micro-faults over the last 330,000 years. These turbidites were dated by correlation with a hemipelagic core with a multi-proxy approach: radiometric dating, 18O, b* colour curve, sapropels and tephrochronology. The origin of the gravity-driven deposits was studied with a sedimentary approach: grain-size, lithology, thin section, geochemistry of volcanic glass. The results suggest three periods of presence/absence of gravity-driven deposits: a first on the western lobe of the Calabrian Arc between 330,000 and 250,000 years, a second between 120,000 years and present day on the eastern lobe of the Calabrian Arc and over the last 60,000 years on the western lobe, and a third on the Mediterranean Ridge over the last 37,000 years. Return times for gravity-driven deposits are around 1,000 years during the most important record periods. The turbidite activity also highlights the presence of volcaniclastic turbidites that seems to be link to the Etna changing morphology over the last 320,000 years.

Spreadsheet for the calculation of return period (or conversely probability or life span) according to different approaches

Landslides falling into water bodies can generate impulsive waves, which are a type of tsunamis. The propagating wave may be highly destructive for hydraulic structures, civil infrastructure and people living along the shorelines. A facility to study this phenomenon was set up in the laboratory of the Technical University of Catalonia. The set-up consists of a new device releasing granular material at high velocity into a wave basin. A system employing laser sheets, high-speed and high-definition cameras was designed to accurately measure the high velocity and geometry of the sliding mass as well as the produced water displacement in time and space. The analysis of experimental data helped to develop empirical relationships linking the landslide parameters with the produced wave amplitude, propagation features and energy, which are useful tools for the hazard assessment. The empirical relationships were successfully tested in the case of the 2007 event that occurred in Chehalis Lake (Canada)., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (author's final draft)

info:eu-repo/semantics/published