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[Background & Aims] We aimed to evaluate the impact of oesophageal varices (OV) and their evolution on the risk of complications of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) caused by non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We also assessed the accuracy of non-invasive scores for predicting the development of complications and for identifying patients at low risk of high-risk OV., [Methods] We performed a retrospective assessment of 629 patients with NAFLD-related cACLD who had baseline and follow-up oesophagogastroduodenoscopy and clinical follow-up to record decompensation, portal vein thrombosis (PVT), and hepatocellular carcinoma., [Results] Small and large OV were observed at baseline in 30 and 15.9% of patients, respectively. The 4-year incidence of OV from absence at baseline, and that of progression from small to large OV were 16.3 and 22.4%, respectively. Diabetes and a ≥5% increase in BMI were associated with OV progression. Multivariate Cox regression revealed that small (hazard ratio [HR] 2.24, 95% CI 1.47–3.41) and large (HR 3.86, 95% CI 2.34–6.39) OV were independently associated with decompensation. When considering OV status and trajectories, small (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.39–5.05) and large (HR 4.90, 95% CI 2.49–9.63) OV at baseline and/or follow-up were independently associated with decompensation compared with the absence of OV at baseline and/or follow-up. The presence of either small (HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.16–6.74) or large (HR 5.29, 95% CI 1.96–14.2) OV was also independently associated with incident PVT., [Conclusion] In NAFLD-related cACLD, the presence, severity, and evolution of OV stratify the risk of developing decompensation and PVT., [Impact and implications] Portal hypertension is the main driver of liver decompensation in chronic liver diseases, and its non-invasive markers can help risk prediction. The presence, severity, and progression of oesophageal varices stratify the risk of complications of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Easily obtainable laboratory values and liver stiffness measurement can identify patients at low risk for whom endoscopy may be withheld, and can also stratify the risk of liver-related complications.

[Background & Aims] Patients with advanced fibrosis related to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are at risk of developing hepatic and extrahepatic complications. We investigated whether, in a large cohort of patients with NAFLD and compensated advanced chronic liver disease, baseline liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) and their changes can be used to identify patients at risk for liver-related and extrahepatic events., [Methods] We performed a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with NAFLD (n = 1039) with a histologic diagnosis of F3–F4 fibrosis and/or LSMs>10 kPa, followed for at least 6 months, from medical centers in 6 countries. LSMs were made by FibroScan using the M or XL probe and recorded at baseline and within 1 year from the last follow-up examination. Differences between follow up and baseline LSMs were categorized as: improvement (reduction of more than 20%), stable (reduction of 20% to an increase of 20%), impairment (an increase of 20% or more). We recorded hepatic events (such as liver decompensation, ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, jaundice, or hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) and overall and liver-related mortality during a median follow-up time of 35 months (interquartile range, 19–63 months)., [Results] Based on Cox regression analysis, baseline LSM was independently associated with occurrence of hepatic decompensation (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02–1.04; P < .001), HCC (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00–1.04; P = .003), and liver-related death (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.02–1.03; P = .005). In 533 patients with available LSMs during the follow-up period, change in LSM was independently associated with hepatic decompensation (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.05–2.51; P = .04), HCC (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.01–3.02; P = .04), overall mortality (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.11–2.69; P = .01), and liver-related mortality (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.10–3.38; P = .02)., [Conclusions] In patients with NAFLD and compensated advanced chronic liver disease, baseline LSM and change in LSM are associated with risk of liver-related events and mortality.