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We estimate the potential predictability of European winter temperature using factors based on physical studies of their influences on European winter climate. These influences include sea surface temperature patterns in different oceans, major tropical volcanoes, the quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, and anthropogenic climate change. We first assess the predictive skill for winter mean temperature in northern Europe by evaluating statistical hindcasts made using multiple regression models of temperature for Europe for winter and the January-February season. We follow this up by extending the methodology to all of Europe on a 5° × 5° grid and include rainfall for completeness. These results can form the basis of practical prediction methods. However, our main aim is to develop ideas to act as a benchmark for improving the performance of dynamical climate models. Because we consider only potential predictability, many of the predictors have estimated values coincident with the winter season being forecast. However, in each case, these values are predictable on average with considerable skill in advance of the winter season. A key conclusion is that to reproduce the results of this paper, dynamical forecasting models will require a fully resolved stratosphere.

This paper presents an overview of changes in the extreme events that are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades. A variety of diagnostic methods are used to determine how heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought, wind storms, and storm surges change between present (1961-90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first century, countries in central Europe will experience the same number of hot days as are currently experienced in southern Europe. The intensity of extreme temperatures increases more rapidly than the intensity of more moderate temperatures over the continental interior due to increases in temperature variability. Precipitation - Heavy winter precipitation increases in central and northern Europe and decreases in the south; heavy summer precipitation increases in north-eastern Europe and decreases in the south. Mediterranean droughts start earlier in the year and last longer. Winter storms - Extreme wind speeds increase between 45 degrees N and 55 degrees N, except over and south of the Alps, and become more north-westerly than cuurently. These changes are associated with reductions in mean sea-level pressure, leading to more North Sea storms and a corresponding increase in storm surges along coastal regions of Holland, Germany and Denmark, in particular. These results are found to depend to different degrees on model formulation. While the responses of heat waves are robust to model formulation, the magnitudes of changes in precipitation and wind speed are sensitive to the choice of regional model, and the detailed patterns of these changes are sensitive to the choice of the driving global model. In the case of precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal var

This paper presents an overview of changes in the extreme events that are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades. A variety of diagnostic methods are used to determine how heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought, wind storms, and storm surges change between present (1961-90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first century, countries in central Europe will experience the same number of hot days as are currently experienced in southern Europe. The intensity of extreme temperatures increases more rapidly than the intensity of more moderate temperatures over the continental interior due to increases in temperature variability. Precipitation - Heavy winter precipitation increases in central and northern Europe and decreases in the south; heavy summer precipitation increases in north-eastern Europe and decreases in the south. Mediterranean droughts start earlier in the year and last longer. Winter storms - Extreme wind speeds increase between 45 degrees N and 55 degrees N, except over and south of the Alps, and become more north-westerly than cuurently. These changes are associated with reductions in mean sea-level pressure, leading to more North Sea storms and a corresponding increase in storm surges along coastal regions of Holland, Germany and Denmark, in particular. These results are found to depend to different degrees on model formulation. While the responses of heat waves are robust to model formulation, the magnitudes of changes in precipitation and wind speed are sensitive to the choice of regional model, and the detailed patterns of these changes are sensitive to the choice of the driving global model. In the case of precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal var

Comparison with recent plant data at Broken Hill South suggests that on roughing duties the new high-intensity flotation process yields superior concentrate grade while requiring less than a third of the residence time of a conventional mechanical cell plant. The process differs from known flotation devices in that high-velocity, thin, clean liquid jets are used as energy and air carriers. The jets accelerate the surrounding air envelope and plunge between two layers of mineral slurry at much lower velocities. The resulting shear rate shreds the gas envelope into very small bubbles and provides very intense agitation acccompanied by high turbulence. There are no moving parts, such as impellers, in contact with the abrasive slurry; the wear rate of the mixing nozzle is very small because the jet core is isolated from the nozzle walls by the slower-moving slurry layers. Experiments with different nozzle types are described., Comparison with recent plant data at Broken Hill South suggests that on roughing duties the new high-intensity flotation process yields superior concentrate grade while requiring less than a third of the residence time of a conventional mechanical cell plant. The process differs from known flotation devices in that high-velocity, thin, clean liquid jets are used as energy and air carriers. The jets accelerate the surrounding air envelope and plunge between two layers of mineral slurry at much lower velocities. The resulting shear rate shreds the gas envelope into very small bubbles and provides very intense agitation acccompanied by high turbulence. There are no moving parts, such as impellers, in contact with the abrasive slurry; the wear rate of the mixing nozzle is very small because the jet core is isolated from the nozzle walls by the slower-moving slurry layers. Experiments with different nozzle types are described.