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1. Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Author

Bustamante, Mercedes, Roy, Joyashree, Ospina, Daniel, Achakulwisut, Ploy, Aggarwal, Anubha, Bastos, Ana, Broadgate, Wendy, Canadell, Josep G, Carr, Edward R, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen A, Ebi, Kristie L, Edwards, Clea, Farbotko, Carol, Fernández-Martínez, Marcos, Frölicher, Thomas L, Fuss, Sabine, Geden, Oliver, Gruber, Nicolas, Harrington, Luke J, Hauck, Judith, Hausfather, Zeke, Hebden, Sophie, Hebinck, Aniek, Huq, Saleemul, Huss, Matthias, Jamero, M Laurice P, Juhola, Sirkku, Kumarasinghe, Nilushi, Lwasa, Shuaib, Mallick, Bishawjit, Martin, Maria, McGreevy, Steven, Mirazo, Paula, Mukherji, Aditi, Muttitt, Greg, Nemet, Gregory F, Obura, David, Okereke, Chukwumerije, Oliver, Tom, Orlove, Ben, Ouedraogo, Nadia S, Patra, Prabir K, Pelling, Mark, Pereira, Laura M, Persson, Åsa, Pongratz, Julia, Prakash, Anjal, Rammig, Anja, Raymond, Colin, Redman, Aaron, Reveco, Cristobal, Rockström, Johan, Rodrigues, Regina, Rounce, David R, Schipper, E Lisa F, Schlosser, Peter, Selomane, Odirilwe, Semieniuk, Gregor, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Siddiqui, Tasneem A, Singh, Vartika, Sioen, Giles B, Sokona, Youba, Stammer, Detlef, Steinert, Norman J, Suk, Sunhee, Sutton, Rowan, Thalheimer, Lisa, Thompson, Vikki, Trencher, Gregory, van der Geest, Kees, Werners, Saskia E, Wübbelmann, Thea, Wunderling, Nico, Yin, Jiabo, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Zscheischler, Jakob, Bustamante, Mercedes, Roy, Joyashree, Ospina, Daniel, Achakulwisut, Ploy, Aggarwal, Anubha, Bastos, Ana, Broadgate, Wendy, Canadell, Josep G, Carr, Edward R, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen A, Ebi, Kristie L, Edwards, Clea, Farbotko, Carol, Fernández-Martínez, Marcos, Frölicher, Thomas L, Fuss, Sabine, Geden, Oliver, Gruber, Nicolas, Harrington, Luke J, Hauck, Judith, Hausfather, Zeke, Hebden, Sophie, Hebinck, Aniek, Huq, Saleemul, Huss, Matthias, Jamero, M Laurice P, Juhola, Sirkku, Kumarasinghe, Nilushi, Lwasa, Shuaib, Mallick, Bishawjit, Martin, Maria, McGreevy, Steven, Mirazo, Paula, Mukherji, Aditi, Muttitt, Greg, Nemet, Gregory F, Obura, David, Okereke, Chukwumerije, Oliver, Tom, Orlove, Ben, Ouedraogo, Nadia S, Patra, Prabir K, Pelling, Mark, Pereira, Laura M, Persson, Åsa, Pongratz, Julia, Prakash, Anjal, Rammig, Anja, Raymond, Colin, Redman, Aaron, Reveco, Cristobal, Rockström, Johan, Rodrigues, Regina, Rounce, David R, Schipper, E Lisa F, Schlosser, Peter, Selomane, Odirilwe, Semieniuk, Gregor, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Siddiqui, Tasneem A, Singh, Vartika, Sioen, Giles B, Sokona, Youba, Stammer, Detlef, Steinert, Norman J, Suk, Sunhee, Sutton, Rowan, Thalheimer, Lisa, Thompson, Vikki, Trencher, Gregory, van der Geest, Kees, Werners, Saskia E, Wübbelmann, Thea, Wunderling, Nico, Yin, Jiabo, Zickfeld, Kirsten, and Zscheischler, Jakob

Abstract

Non-technical summary. We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communi

Published
2023

2. 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024

Author

Bustamante, Mercedes, Roy, Joyashree, Ospina, Daniel, Achakulwisut, Ploy, Aggarwal, Anubha, Bastos, Ana, Broadgate, Wendy, Canadell, Josep G., Carr, Edward R., Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen A., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea, Farbotko, Carol, Fernández-Martínez, Marcos, Frölicher, Thomas L., Fuss, Sabine, Geden, Oliver, Gruber, Nicolas, Harrington, Luke J., Hauck, Judith, Hausfather, Zeke, Hebden, Sophie, Hebinck, Aniek, Huq, Saleemul, Huss, Matthias, Jamero, Laurice P., Juhola, Sirkku, Kumarasinghe, Nilushi, Lwasa, Shuaib, Mallick, Bishawjit, Martin, Maria, McGreevy, Steven, Mirazo, Paula, Mukherji, Aditi, Muttitt, Greg, Nemet, Gregory F., Obura, David, Okereke, Chukwumerije, Oliver, Tom, Orlove, Ben, Ouedraogo, Nadia S., Patra, Prabir K., Pelling, Mark, Pereira, Laura M., Persson, Åsa, Pongratz, Julia, Prakash, Anjal, Rammig, Anja, Raymond, Colin, Redman, Aaron, Reveco, Cristobal, Rockström, Johan, Rodrigues, Regina, Rounce, David R., Schipper, Lisa F., Schlosser, Peter, Selomane, Odirilwe, Semieniuk, Gregor, Shin, Yunne Jai, Siddiqui, Tasneem A., Singh, Vartika, Sioen, Giles B., Sokona, Youba, Stammer, Detlef, Steinert, Norman J., Suk, Sunhee, Sutton, Rowan, Thalheimer, Lisa, Thompson, Vikki, Trencher, Gregory, Van Der Geest, Kees, Werners, Saskia E., Wübbelmann, Thea, Wunderling, Nico, Yin, Jiabo, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Zscheischler, Jakob, Blome, Tanja, Wolff, Maria, Bustamante, Mercedes, Roy, Joyashree, Ospina, Daniel, Achakulwisut, Ploy, Aggarwal, Anubha, Bastos, Ana, Broadgate, Wendy, Canadell, Josep G., Carr, Edward R., Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen A., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea, Farbotko, Carol, Fernández-Martínez, Marcos, Frölicher, Thomas L., Fuss, Sabine, Geden, Oliver, Gruber, Nicolas, Harrington, Luke J., Hauck, Judith, Hausfather, Zeke, Hebden, Sophie, Hebinck, Aniek, Huq, Saleemul, Huss, Matthias, Jamero, Laurice P., Juhola, Sirkku, Kumarasinghe, Nilushi, Lwasa, Shuaib, Mallick, Bishawjit, Martin, Maria, McGreevy, Steven, Mirazo, Paula, Mukherji, Aditi, Muttitt, Greg, Nemet, Gregory F., Obura, David, Okereke, Chukwumerije, Oliver, Tom, Orlove, Ben, Ouedraogo, Nadia S., Patra, Prabir K., Pelling, Mark, Pereira, Laura M., Persson, Åsa, Pongratz, Julia, Prakash, Anjal, Rammig, Anja, Raymond, Colin, Redman, Aaron, Reveco, Cristobal, Rockström, Johan, Rodrigues, Regina, Rounce, David R., Schipper, Lisa F., Schlosser, Peter, Selomane, Odirilwe, Semieniuk, Gregor, Shin, Yunne Jai, Siddiqui, Tasneem A., Singh, Vartika, Sioen, Giles B., Sokona, Youba, Stammer, Detlef, Steinert, Norman J., Suk, Sunhee, Sutton, Rowan, Thalheimer, Lisa, Thompson, Vikki, Trencher, Gregory, Van Der Geest, Kees, Werners, Saskia E., Wübbelmann, Thea, Wunderling, Nico, Yin, Jiabo, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Zscheischler, Jakob, Blome, Tanja, and Wolff, Maria

Abstract

Each year, Future Earth, the Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme gather leading scholars from around the world to review the most pressing findings in climate research. The result is the 10 New Insights in Climate Science, delivered as two self-standing products: a peer-reviewed scientific article and this policy report providing a rich and valuable synthesis for policymakers and society at large. The scientific evidence underpinning this year’s report was published between January 2022–June 2023. For policymakers responding to the urgent challenge of the climate crisis, the 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024 offers credible guidance through 2024 and beyond.

Published
2023

3. Synthesis report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Longer report. IPCC.

Author

Lee, Hoesung, Calvin, Katherine, Dasgupta, Dipak, Krinmer, Gerhard, Mukherji, Aditi, Thorne, Peter, Trisos, Christopher, Romero, Jose, Aldunce, Paulina, Barret, Ko, Blanco, Gabriel, Cheung, William W.L., Connors, Sarah L., Denton, Fatima, Diongue-Niang, Aïda, Dodman, David, Garschagen, Matthias, Geden, Oliver, Hayward, Bronwyn, Jones, Christopher, Jotzo, Frank, Krug, Thelma, Lasco, Rodel, Lee, June-Yi, Masson-Delmotte, Valerie, Meinshausen, Malte, Mintenbeck, Katja, Mokssit, Abdalah, Otto, Friederike E. L., Pathak, Minal, Pirani, Anna, Poloczanska, Elvira, Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Revi, Aromar, Roberts, Debra C., Roy, Joyashree, Ruane, Alex C., Skea, Jim, Shukla, Priyadarshi R., Slade, Raphael, Slangen, Aimée, Sokona, Youba, Sörensson, Anna A, Tignor, Melinda, Vuuren, Detlef van, Wei, Yi-Ming, Winkler, Harald, Zhai, Panmao, Zommers, Zinta, Lee, Hoesung, Calvin, Katherine, Dasgupta, Dipak, Krinmer, Gerhard, Mukherji, Aditi, Thorne, Peter, Trisos, Christopher, Romero, Jose, Aldunce, Paulina, Barret, Ko, Blanco, Gabriel, Cheung, William W.L., Connors, Sarah L., Denton, Fatima, Diongue-Niang, Aïda, Dodman, David, Garschagen, Matthias, Geden, Oliver, Hayward, Bronwyn, Jones, Christopher, Jotzo, Frank, Krug, Thelma, Lasco, Rodel, Lee, June-Yi, Masson-Delmotte, Valerie, Meinshausen, Malte, Mintenbeck, Katja, Mokssit, Abdalah, Otto, Friederike E. L., Pathak, Minal, Pirani, Anna, Poloczanska, Elvira, Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Revi, Aromar, Roberts, Debra C., Roy, Joyashree, Ruane, Alex C., Skea, Jim, Shukla, Priyadarshi R., Slade, Raphael, Slangen, Aimée, Sokona, Youba, Sörensson, Anna A, Tignor, Melinda, Vuuren, Detlef van, Wei, Yi-Ming, Winkler, Harald, Zhai, Panmao, and Zommers, Zinta

Abstract

This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation, based on the peer-reviewed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature since the publication of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. The assessment is undertaken within the context of the evolving international landscape, in particular, developments in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, including the outcomes of the Kyoto Protocol and the adoption of the Paris Agreement. It reflects the increasing diversity of those involved in climate action. This report integrates the main findings of the AR6 Working Group reports1 and the three AR6 Special Reports. It recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies; the value of diverse forms of knowledge; and the close linkages between climate change adaptation, mitigation, ecosystem health, human well-being and sustainable development. Building on multiple analytical frameworks, including those from the physical and social sciences, this report identifies opportunities for transformative action which are effective, feasible, just and equitable using concepts of systems transitions and resilient development pathways. Different regional classification schemes are used for physical, social and economic aspects, reflecting the underlying literature. After this introduction, Section 2, ‘Current Status and Trends’, opens with the assessment of observational evidence for our changing climate, historical and current drivers of human-induced climate change, and its impacts. It assesses the current implementation of adaptation and mitigation response options. Section 3, ‘Long-Term Climate and Development Futures’, provides a long-term assessment of climate change to 2100 and beyond in a broad range of socio-economic futures. It considers long-ter

Published
2023

4. IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

Author

Lee, Hoesung, Calvin, Katherine, Dasgupta, Dipak, Krinner, Gerhard, Mukherji, Aditi, Thorne, Peter, Trisos, Christopher, Romero, José, Aldunce, Paulina, Barret, Ko, Blanco, Gabriel, Cheung, William W.L., Connors, Sarah L., Denton, Fatima, Diongue-Niang, Aïda, Dodman, David, Garschagen, Matthias, Geden, Oliver, Hayward, Bronwyn, Jones, Christopher, Jotzo, Frank, Krug, Thelma, Lasco, Rodel, Lee, Yune-Yi, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, Meinshausen, Malte, Mintenbeck, Katja, Mokssit, Abdalah, Otto, Friederike E.L., Pathak, Minal, Pirani, Anna, Poloczanska, Elvira, Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Revi, Aromar, Roberts, Debra C., Roy, Joyashree, Ruane, Alex C., Skea, Jim, Shukla, Priyadarshi R., Slade, Raphael, Slangen, Aimée, Sokona, Youba, Sörensson, Anna A., Tignor, Melinda, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wei, Yi-Ming, Winkler, Harald, Zhai, Panmao, Zommers, Zinta, Hourcade, Jean-Charles, Johnson, Francis X., Pachauri, Shonali, Simpson, Nicholas P., Singh, Chandni, Thomas, Adelle, Totin, Edmond, Arias, Paola, Bustamante, Mercedes, Elgizouli, Ismail, Flato, Gregory, Howden, Mark, Méndez-Vallejo, Carlos, Pereira, Joy Jacqueline, Pichs-Madruga, Ramón, Rose, Steven K., Saheb, Yamina, Sánchez Rodríguez, Roberto, Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana, Xiao, Cunde, Yassaa, Noureddine, Alegría, Andrés, Armour, Kyle, Bednar-Friedl, Birgit, Blok, Kornelis, Cissé, Guéladio, Dentener, Frank, Eriksen, Siri, Fischer, Erich, Garner, Gregory, Guivarch, Céline, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, Hansen, Gerrit, Hauser, Mathias, Hawkins, Ed, Hermans, Tim, Kopp, Robert, Leprince-Ringuet, Noëmie, Lewis, Jared, Ley, Debora, Ludden, Chloé, Niamir, Leila, Nicholls, Zebedee, Some, Shreya, Szopa, Sophie, Trewin, Blair, van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar, Winter, Gundula, Witting, Maximilian, Birt, Arlene, Ha, Meeyoung, Kim, Jinmi, Haites, Erik F., Jung, Yonghun, Stavins, Robert, Orendain, Dan Jezreel A., Ignon, Lance, Park, Semin, Park, Youngin, Lee, Hoesung, Calvin, Katherine, Dasgupta, Dipak, Krinner, Gerhard, Mukherji, Aditi, Thorne, Peter, Trisos, Christopher, Romero, José, Aldunce, Paulina, Barret, Ko, Blanco, Gabriel, Cheung, William W.L., Connors, Sarah L., Denton, Fatima, Diongue-Niang, Aïda, Dodman, David, Garschagen, Matthias, Geden, Oliver, Hayward, Bronwyn, Jones, Christopher, Jotzo, Frank, Krug, Thelma, Lasco, Rodel, Lee, Yune-Yi, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, Meinshausen, Malte, Mintenbeck, Katja, Mokssit, Abdalah, Otto, Friederike E.L., Pathak, Minal, Pirani, Anna, Poloczanska, Elvira, Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Revi, Aromar, Roberts, Debra C., Roy, Joyashree, Ruane, Alex C., Skea, Jim, Shukla, Priyadarshi R., Slade, Raphael, Slangen, Aimée, Sokona, Youba, Sörensson, Anna A., Tignor, Melinda, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wei, Yi-Ming, Winkler, Harald, Zhai, Panmao, Zommers, Zinta, Hourcade, Jean-Charles, Johnson, Francis X., Pachauri, Shonali, Simpson, Nicholas P., Singh, Chandni, Thomas, Adelle, Totin, Edmond, Arias, Paola, Bustamante, Mercedes, Elgizouli, Ismail, Flato, Gregory, Howden, Mark, Méndez-Vallejo, Carlos, Pereira, Joy Jacqueline, Pichs-Madruga, Ramón, Rose, Steven K., Saheb, Yamina, Sánchez Rodríguez, Roberto, Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana, Xiao, Cunde, Yassaa, Noureddine, Alegría, Andrés, Armour, Kyle, Bednar-Friedl, Birgit, Blok, Kornelis, Cissé, Guéladio, Dentener, Frank, Eriksen, Siri, Fischer, Erich, Garner, Gregory, Guivarch, Céline, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, Hansen, Gerrit, Hauser, Mathias, Hawkins, Ed, Hermans, Tim, Kopp, Robert, Leprince-Ringuet, Noëmie, Lewis, Jared, Ley, Debora, Ludden, Chloé, Niamir, Leila, Nicholls, Zebedee, Some, Shreya, Szopa, Sophie, Trewin, Blair, van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar, Winter, Gundula, Witting, Maximilian, Birt, Arlene, Ha, Meeyoung, Kim, Jinmi, Haites, Erik F., Jung, Yonghun, Stavins, Robert, Orendain, Dan Jezreel A., Ignon, Lance, Park, Semin, and Park, Youngin

Abstract

This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. It integrates the main findings of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) based on contributions from the three Working Groups1 , and the three Special Reports. The summary for Policymakers (SPM) is structured in three parts: SPM.A Current Status and Trends, SPM.B Future Climate Change, Risks, and Long-Term Responses, and SPM.C Responses in the Near Term.This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies; the value of diverse forms of knowledge; and the close linkages between climate change adaptation, mitigation, ecosystem health, human well-being and sustainable development, and reflects the increasing diversity of actors involved in climate action. Based on scientific understanding, key findings can be formulated as statements of fact or associated with an assessed level of confidence using the IPCC calibrated language.

Published
2023

5. Enhancing the review process in global environmental assessments : The case of the IPCC

Author

Palutikof, Jean P., Boulter, Sarah L., Field, Christopher B., Mach, Katharine J., Manning, Martin R., Mastrandrea, Michael D., Meyer, Leo, Minx, Jan C., Pereira, Joy J., Plattner, Gian Kasper, Ribeiro, Suzana Kahn, Sokona, Youba, Stadler, Frank, Swart, Rob, Palutikof, Jean P., Boulter, Sarah L., Field, Christopher B., Mach, Katharine J., Manning, Martin R., Mastrandrea, Michael D., Meyer, Leo, Minx, Jan C., Pereira, Joy J., Plattner, Gian Kasper, Ribeiro, Suzana Kahn, Sokona, Youba, Stadler, Frank, and Swart, Rob

Abstract

External review is a fundamental component of Global Environmental Assessments, ensuring their processes are comprehensive, objective, open and transparent, and are perceived as such. Here, we focus on review of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. The review process has received little scrutiny, although review comments and author responses are public. Here we analyse review documents from the Fourth and Fifth Assessments, focusing primarily on Working Group II. We address three questions: Is the review representative? Is it comprehensive? Is it insightful? Overall we found the review process to be fit for purpose, although there are outstanding issues. First, the overwhelming majority of reviewers are from developed countries, although evidence suggests participation by developing country reviewers increased between the Fourth and Fifth Assessments. Second, earlier sections of chapters are more densely reviewed than later ones. This is true even when executive summaries are removed from analysis. In consequence, some sections on specialised topics may escape in-depth review. Thirdly, those review comments which are received make a valid and valuable contribution to the scientific development of chapters. We suggest how outstanding issues could be addressed, including through enhanced reviewer recognition, a wider role for review editors, adherence to mandated page lengths from early in the process, reviewer training, and consistency in reporting to allow systematic evaluation. Making such changes will result in more transparent, consistent and representative processes delivering reviews which effectively contribute to the credibility and legitimacy of future Global Environmental Assessments and, ultimately, their recognition and contribution.

Published
2023

6. Africa needs context-relevant evidence to shape its clean energy future

Author

Mulugetta, Yacob (author), Sokona, Youba (author), Trotter, Philipp A. (author), Fankhauser, Samuel (author), Omukuti, Jessica (author), Somavilla Croxatto, Lucas (author), Steffen, Bjarne (author), Tesfamichael, Meron (author), Abraham, E. (author), Mulugetta, Yacob (author), Sokona, Youba (author), Trotter, Philipp A. (author), Fankhauser, Samuel (author), Omukuti, Jessica (author), Somavilla Croxatto, Lucas (author), Steffen, Bjarne (author), Tesfamichael, Meron (author), and Abraham, E. (author)

Abstract

Aligning development and climate goals means Africa’s energy systems will be based on clean energy technologies in the long term, but pathways to get there are uncertain and variable across countries. Although current debates about natural gas and renewables in Africa are heated, they largely ignore the substantial context specificity of the starting points, development objectives and uncertainties of each African country’s energy system trajectory. Here we—an interdisciplinary and majority African group of authors—highlight that each country faces a distinct solution space and set of uncertainties for using renewables or fossil fuels to meet its development objectives. For example, Ethiopia is headed for an accelerated green-growth pathway, but Mozambique is at a crossroads of natural gas expansion with implicit large-scale technological, economic, financial and social risks and uncertainties. We provide geopolitical, policy, finance and research recommendations to create firm country-specific evidence to identify adequate energy system pathways for development and to enable their implementation., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Water Resources

Published
2022
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7. Three Decades of Climate Mitigation : Why Haven't We Bent the Global Emissions Curve?

Author

Stoddard, Isak, Anderson, Kevin, Capstick, Stuart, Carton, Wim, Depledge, Joanna, Facer, Keri, Gough, Clair, Hache, Frederic, Hoolohan, Claire, Hultman, Martin, Hällström, Niclas, Kartha, Sivan, Klinsky, Sonja, Kuchler, Magdalena, Lövbrand, Eva, Nasiritousi, Naghmeh, Newell, Peter, Peters, Glen P., Sokona, Youba, Stirling, Andy, Stilwell, Matthew, Spash, Clive L., Williams, Mariama, Stoddard, Isak, Anderson, Kevin, Capstick, Stuart, Carton, Wim, Depledge, Joanna, Facer, Keri, Gough, Clair, Hache, Frederic, Hoolohan, Claire, Hultman, Martin, Hällström, Niclas, Kartha, Sivan, Klinsky, Sonja, Kuchler, Magdalena, Lövbrand, Eva, Nasiritousi, Naghmeh, Newell, Peter, Peters, Glen P., Sokona, Youba, Stirling, Andy, Stilwell, Matthew, Spash, Clive L., and Williams, Mariama

Abstract

Despite three decades of political efforts and a wealth of research on the causes and catastrophic impacts of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise and are 60% higher today than they were in 1990. Exploring this rise through nine thematic lenses—covering issues of climate governance, the fossil fuel industry, geopolitics, economics, mitigation modeling, energy systems, inequity, lifestyles, and social imaginaries—draws out multifaceted reasons for our collective failure to bend the global emissions curve. However, a common thread that emerges across the reviewed literature is the central role of power, manifest in many forms, from a dogmatic political-economic hegemony and influential vested interests to narrow techno-economic mindsets and ideologies of control. Synthesizing the various impediments to mitigation reveals how delivering on the commitments enshrined in the Paris Agreement now requires an urgent and unprecedented transformation away from today's carbon- and energy-intensive development paradigm.

Published
2021
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8. International Science Foresight Workshop: Global challenges and research gaps. The Royaumont process

Author

Soussana, Jean-François, Weill, Claire, Caron, Patrick, Chotte, Jean-Luc, Joly, Pierre-Benoît, Aggarwal, Pramod, Axelos, Monique, De Boer, Imke, Caquet, Thierry, Caranta, Carole, Chemineau, Philipppe, Cherbut, Christine, Denis, Mathieu, Fanzo, Jessica, Flammarion, Patrick, Guégan, Jean-François, Gouel, Christophe, Halley Des Fontaines, Ségolène, Hamant, Olivier, Hannah, David, Hetherington, Marion, Huyghe, Christian, Kao, Cyril, Kremer, Antoine, Langridge, Peter, Leadley, Paul, Lee, Michael, Lindner, Marcus, Loconto, Allison, Lopes, Mauricio Antonio, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, Matthews, Alan, Mille, Raoul, Naiman, Robert J., Riboli, Elio, Schot, Johan, Sokona, Youba, Stirling, Andrew, Tomé, Daniel, Tomei, Maria-Concetta, Treyer, Sébastien, Visser, S., Wery, Jacques, Whitmee, Sarah, Soussana, Jean-François, Weill, Claire, Caron, Patrick, Chotte, Jean-Luc, Joly, Pierre-Benoît, Aggarwal, Pramod, Axelos, Monique, De Boer, Imke, Caquet, Thierry, Caranta, Carole, Chemineau, Philipppe, Cherbut, Christine, Denis, Mathieu, Fanzo, Jessica, Flammarion, Patrick, Guégan, Jean-François, Gouel, Christophe, Halley Des Fontaines, Ségolène, Hamant, Olivier, Hannah, David, Hetherington, Marion, Huyghe, Christian, Kao, Cyril, Kremer, Antoine, Langridge, Peter, Leadley, Paul, Lee, Michael, Lindner, Marcus, Loconto, Allison, Lopes, Mauricio Antonio, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, Matthews, Alan, Mille, Raoul, Naiman, Robert J., Riboli, Elio, Schot, Johan, Sokona, Youba, Stirling, Andrew, Tomé, Daniel, Tomei, Maria-Concetta, Treyer, Sébastien, Visser, S., Wery, Jacques, and Whitmee, Sarah

Abstract

How scientists might better contribute to SDGs in the land sector? At the invitation of INRAE, a group of high-level international experts delivers a comprehensive and systemic approach.

Published
2021

9. Summary for policymakers

Author

Edenhofer, Ottmar, Pichs-Madruga, Ramon, Sokona, Youba, Seyboth, Kristin, Arvizu, Dan, Bruckner, Thomas, Christensen, John, Chum, Helena, Devernay, Jean-Michel, Faaij, Andre, Fischedick, Manfred, Goldstein, Barry, Hansen, Gerrit, Huckerby, John, Jäger-Waldau, Arnulf, Kadner, Susanne, Kammen, Daniel, Krey, Volker, Kumar, Arun, Lewis, Anthony, Lucon, Oswaldo, Matschoss, Patrick, Lourdes, Maurice, Mitchell, Catherine, Moomaw, William, Moreira, José, Nadai, Alain, Nilsson, Lars J., Nyboer, John, Rahman, A. Atiq, Sathaye, Jayant, Sawin, Janet, Schaeffer, Roberto, Schei, Tormod A., Schlömer, Steffen, Sims, Ralph, von Stechow, Christoph, Verbruggen, Aviel, Urama, Kevin, Wiser, Ryan, Yamba, Francis, Zwickel, Timm, Edenhofer, Ottmar, Pichs-Madruga, Ramon, Sokona, Youba, Seyboth, Kristin, Arvizu, Dan, Bruckner, Thomas, Christensen, John, Chum, Helena, Devernay, Jean-Michel, Faaij, Andre, Fischedick, Manfred, Goldstein, Barry, Hansen, Gerrit, Huckerby, John, Jäger-Waldau, Arnulf, Kadner, Susanne, Kammen, Daniel, Krey, Volker, Kumar, Arun, Lewis, Anthony, Lucon, Oswaldo, Matschoss, Patrick, Lourdes, Maurice, Mitchell, Catherine, Moomaw, William, Moreira, José, Nadai, Alain, Nilsson, Lars J., Nyboer, John, Rahman, A. Atiq, Sathaye, Jayant, Sawin, Janet, Schaeffer, Roberto, Schei, Tormod A., Schlömer, Steffen, Sims, Ralph, von Stechow, Christoph, Verbruggen, Aviel, Urama, Kevin, Wiser, Ryan, Yamba, Francis, and Zwickel, Timm

Published
2016

10. Technical summary

Author

Edenhofer, Ottmar, Pichs-Madruga, Ramon, Kadner, Susanne, Minx, Jan C., Brunner, Steffen, Sokona, Youba, Agrawala, Shardul, Baiocchi, Giovanni, Alexeyevich Bashmakov, Igor, Blanco, Gabriel, Broome, John, Bruckner, Thomas, Bustamante, Mercedes, Clarke, Leon, Conte Grand, Mariana, Creutzig, Felix, Cruz-Nunez, Xochitl, Dhakal, Shobhakar, Dubash, Navroz K., Eickemeier, Patrick, Farahani, Ellie, Fischedick, Manfred, Fleurbaey, Marc, Gerlagh, Reyer, Gomez-Echeverri, Luis, Gupta, Sujata, Harnisch, Jochen, Jiang, Kejun, Jotzo, Frank, Kartha, Sivan, Klasen, Stephan, Kolstad, Charles, Krey, Volker, Kunreuther, Howard, Lucon, Oswaldo, Masera, Omar, Mulugetta, Yacob, Norgaard, Richard, Patt, Anthony, Ravindranath, Nijavalli H., Riahi, Keywan, Roy, Joyashree, Sagar, Ambuj, Schaeffer, Roberto, Schlömer, Steffen, Seto, Karen, Seyboth, Kristin, Sims, Ralph, Smith, Pete, Somanathan, Eswaran, Stavins, Robert, Stechow, Christoph von, Sterner, Thomas, Sugiyama, Taishi, Suh, Sangwon, Urama, Kevin, Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana, Venables, Anthony, Victor, David G., Weber, Elke, Zhou, Dadi, Zou, Ji, Zwickel, Timm, Edenhofer, Ottmar, Pichs-Madruga, Ramon, Kadner, Susanne, Minx, Jan C., Brunner, Steffen, Sokona, Youba, Agrawala, Shardul, Baiocchi, Giovanni, Alexeyevich Bashmakov, Igor, Blanco, Gabriel, Broome, John, Bruckner, Thomas, Bustamante, Mercedes, Clarke, Leon, Conte Grand, Mariana, Creutzig, Felix, Cruz-Nunez, Xochitl, Dhakal, Shobhakar, Dubash, Navroz K., Eickemeier, Patrick, Farahani, Ellie, Fischedick, Manfred, Fleurbaey, Marc, Gerlagh, Reyer, Gomez-Echeverri, Luis, Gupta, Sujata, Harnisch, Jochen, Jiang, Kejun, Jotzo, Frank, Kartha, Sivan, Klasen, Stephan, Kolstad, Charles, Krey, Volker, Kunreuther, Howard, Lucon, Oswaldo, Masera, Omar, Mulugetta, Yacob, Norgaard, Richard, Patt, Anthony, Ravindranath, Nijavalli H., Riahi, Keywan, Roy, Joyashree, Sagar, Ambuj, Schaeffer, Roberto, Schlömer, Steffen, Seto, Karen, Seyboth, Kristin, Sims, Ralph, Smith, Pete, Somanathan, Eswaran, Stavins, Robert, Stechow, Christoph von, Sterner, Thomas, Sugiyama, Taishi, Suh, Sangwon, Urama, Kevin, Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana, Venables, Anthony, Victor, David G., Weber, Elke, Zhou, Dadi, Zou, Ji, and Zwickel, Timm

Published
2016

11. Climate change : The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

Author

Rockström, Johan, Brasseur, Guy, Hoskins, Brian, Lucht, Wolfgang, Schellnhuber, John, Kabat, Pavel, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Gong, Peng, Schlosser, Peter, Manez Costa, Maria, Humble, April, Eyre, Nick, Gleick, Peter, James, Rachel, Lucena, Andre, Masera, Omar, Moench, Marcus, Schaeffer, Roberto, Seitzinger, Sybil, van der Leeuw, Sander, Ward, Bob, Stern, Nicholas, Hurrell, James, Srivastava, Leena, Morgan, Jennifer, Nobre, Carlos, Sokona, Youba, Cremades, Roger, Roth, Ellinor, Liverman, Diana, Arnott, James, Rockström, Johan, Brasseur, Guy, Hoskins, Brian, Lucht, Wolfgang, Schellnhuber, John, Kabat, Pavel, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Gong, Peng, Schlosser, Peter, Manez Costa, Maria, Humble, April, Eyre, Nick, Gleick, Peter, James, Rachel, Lucena, Andre, Masera, Omar, Moench, Marcus, Schaeffer, Roberto, Seitzinger, Sybil, van der Leeuw, Sander, Ward, Bob, Stern, Nicholas, Hurrell, James, Srivastava, Leena, Morgan, Jennifer, Nobre, Carlos, Sokona, Youba, Cremades, Roger, Roth, Ellinor, Liverman, Diana, and Arnott, James

Abstract

The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitious goals on universal access and equal opportunities for dignified lives are adopted. These grand aspirations for a world population approaching or even exceeding nine billion in 2050 is threatened by substantial global environmental risks and by rising inequality. Research shows that development gains, in both rich and poor nations, can be undermined by social, economic and ecological problems caused by human-induced global environmental change. Climate risks, and associated changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the resilience of the climate system, are at the forefront of these global risks. We, as citizens with a strong engagement in Earth system science and socio-ecological dynamics, share the vision of a more equitable and prosperous future for the world, yet we also see threats to this future from shifts in climate and environmental processes. Without collaborative action now, our shared Earth system may not be able to sustainably support a large proportion of humanity in the decades ahead.

Published
2014
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12. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation

Author

Edenhofer, Ottmar, Pichs-Madruga, Ramon, Sokona, Youba, Blanco, Gabriel, Gerlagh, Reyer, Suh, Sangwon, Ahenkorah, Alfred K. Ofosu, Barrett, John, De Coninck, Heleen, Diaz Morejon, Cristobal Felix, Mathur, Ritu, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Pan, Jiahua, Pathak, Himanshu, Rice, Jake, Richels, Richard, Smith, Steven, Stern, David, Zhou, Peter P., Toth, Ferenc L., Edenhofer, Ottmar, Pichs-Madruga, Ramon, Sokona, Youba, Blanco, Gabriel, Gerlagh, Reyer, Suh, Sangwon, Ahenkorah, Alfred K. Ofosu, Barrett, John, De Coninck, Heleen, Diaz Morejon, Cristobal Felix, Mathur, Ritu, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Pan, Jiahua, Pathak, Himanshu, Rice, Jake, Richels, Richard, Smith, Steven, Stern, David, Zhou, Peter P., and Toth, Ferenc L.

Abstract

Chapter 5 analyzes the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends until the present and the main drivers that explain those trends. The chapter uses different perspectives to analyze past GHG-emissions trends, including aggregate emissions flows and per capita emissions, cumulative emissions, sectoral emissions, and territory-based vs. consumption-based emissions. In all cases, global and regional trends are analyzed. Where appropriate, the emission trends are contextualized with long-term historic developments in GHG emissions extending back to 1750.

Published
2014

13. Technical summary

Author

Arvizu, Dan, Bruckner, Thomas, Chum, Helena, Edenhofer, Ottmar, Estefen, Segen, Faaij, Andre, Fischedick, Manfred, Hansen, Gerrit, Hiriart, Gerardo, Hohmeyer, Olav, Hollands, K. G. Terry, Huckerby, John, Kadner, Susanne, Killingtveit, Anund, Kumar, Arun, Lewis, Anthony, Lucon, Oswaldo, Matschoss, Patrick, Maurice, Lourdes, Mirza, Monirul, Mitchell, Catherine, Moomaw, William, Moreira, José, Nilsson, Lars J., Nyboer, John, Pichs-Madruga, Ramon, Sathaye, Jayant, Sawin, Janet L., Schaeffer, Roberto, Schei, Tormod A., Schlömer, Steffen, Seyboth, Kristin, Sims, Ralph, Sinden, Graham, Sokona, Youba, Stechow, Christoph von, Steckel, Jan, Verbruggen, Aviel, Wiser, Ryan, Yamba, Francis, Zwickel, Timm, Arvizu, Dan, Bruckner, Thomas, Chum, Helena, Edenhofer, Ottmar, Estefen, Segen, Faaij, Andre, Fischedick, Manfred, Hansen, Gerrit, Hiriart, Gerardo, Hohmeyer, Olav, Hollands, K. G. Terry, Huckerby, John, Kadner, Susanne, Killingtveit, Anund, Kumar, Arun, Lewis, Anthony, Lucon, Oswaldo, Matschoss, Patrick, Maurice, Lourdes, Mirza, Monirul, Mitchell, Catherine, Moomaw, William, Moreira, José, Nilsson, Lars J., Nyboer, John, Pichs-Madruga, Ramon, Sathaye, Jayant, Sawin, Janet L., Schaeffer, Roberto, Schei, Tormod A., Schlömer, Steffen, Seyboth, Kristin, Sims, Ralph, Sinden, Graham, Sokona, Youba, Stechow, Christoph von, Steckel, Jan, Verbruggen, Aviel, Wiser, Ryan, Yamba, Francis, and Zwickel, Timm

Published
2012

14. South-North dialogue on equity in the greenhouse : a proposal for an adequate and equitable global climate agreement

Author

Ott, Hermann E., Winkler, Harald, Brouns, Bernd, Kartha, Sivan, Mace, M. J., Huq, Saleemul, Kameyama, Yasuko, Sari, Agus P., Pan, Jiahua, Sokona, Youba, Bhandari, Preety M., Kassenberg, Andrzej, Lèbre La Rovere, Emilio, Rahman, A. Atiq, Ott, Hermann E., Winkler, Harald, Brouns, Bernd, Kartha, Sivan, Mace, M. J., Huq, Saleemul, Kameyama, Yasuko, Sari, Agus P., Pan, Jiahua, Sokona, Youba, Bhandari, Preety M., Kassenberg, Andrzej, Lèbre La Rovere, Emilio, and Rahman, A. Atiq

Published
2004

15. Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world

Author

Foster, Vivien, Trotter, Philipp A., Werner, Sven, Niedermayer, Melin, Mulugetta, Yacob, Achakulwisut, Ploy, Brophy, Aoife, Dubash, Navroz K., Fankhauser, Sam, Hawkes, Adam, Hirmer, Stephanie, Jenkins, Stuart, Loni, Sam, Mcgivern, Alexis, Nanthavong, Khamphone, Probst, Benedict, Pye, Steve, Russo, Vladimir, Semieniuk, Gregor, Shenga, Carlos, Sridharan, Vignesh, Srivastav, Sugandha, Sokona, Youba, Croxatto, Lucas Somavilla, Yang, Pu, Foster, Vivien, Trotter, Philipp A., Werner, Sven, Niedermayer, Melin, Mulugetta, Yacob, Achakulwisut, Ploy, Brophy, Aoife, Dubash, Navroz K., Fankhauser, Sam, Hawkes, Adam, Hirmer, Stephanie, Jenkins, Stuart, Loni, Sam, Mcgivern, Alexis, Nanthavong, Khamphone, Probst, Benedict, Pye, Steve, Russo, Vladimir, Semieniuk, Gregor, Shenga, Carlos, Sridharan, Vignesh, Srivastav, Sugandha, Sokona, Youba, Croxatto, Lucas Somavilla, and Yang, Pu

Abstract

The production and use of fossil fuels need to decline rapidly to limit global warming. Although global net-zero scenarios abound, the associated development ramifications for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries (LLMICs), as well as adequate international responses, have been underexplored. Here we conceptualize that, depending on country context, three types of development transition follow from declining fossil fuel production and use for LLMIC producers, namely an energy transition, an economic transition and an equitable fossil fuel production transition. We propose a classification of these transitions, arguing that heterogeneity in LLMICs’ fossil fuel production and usage substantially impacts their pathways towards low-carbon development. We illustrate this by discussing different cases of fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, focusing on Mozambique, India, Lao PDR and Angola. We conclude by detailing context-specific international support portfolios to foster low-carbon development in fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, and call for a re-orientation of international support along principles of global solidarity.

16. Climate change: the necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

Author

Rockström, Johan, Brasseur, Guy, Hoskins, Brian, Lucht, Wolfgang, Schellnhuber, John, Kabat, Pavel, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Gong, Peng, Schlosser, Peter, Máñez Costa, Maria, Humble, April, Eyre, Nick, Gleick, Peter, James, Rachel, Lucena, Andre, Masera, Omar, Moench, Marcus, Schaeffer, Roberto, Seitzinger, Sybil, van der Leeuw, Sander, Ward, Bob, Stern, Nicholas, Hurrell, James, Srivastava, Leena, Morgan, Jennifer, Nobre, Carlos, Sokona, Youba, Cremades, Roger, Roth, Ellinor, Liverman, Diana, Arnott, James, Rockström, Johan, Brasseur, Guy, Hoskins, Brian, Lucht, Wolfgang, Schellnhuber, John, Kabat, Pavel, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Gong, Peng, Schlosser, Peter, Máñez Costa, Maria, Humble, April, Eyre, Nick, Gleick, Peter, James, Rachel, Lucena, Andre, Masera, Omar, Moench, Marcus, Schaeffer, Roberto, Seitzinger, Sybil, van der Leeuw, Sander, Ward, Bob, Stern, Nicholas, Hurrell, James, Srivastava, Leena, Morgan, Jennifer, Nobre, Carlos, Sokona, Youba, Cremades, Roger, Roth, Ellinor, Liverman, Diana, and Arnott, James

Abstract

The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitious goals on universal access and equal opportunities for dignified lives are adopted. These grand aspirations for a world population approaching or even exceeding nine billion in 2050 is threatened by substantial global environmental risks and by rising inequality. Research shows that development gains, in both rich and poor nations, can be undermined by social, economic and ecological problems caused by human-induced global environmental change. Climate risks, and associated changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the resilience of the climate system, are at the forefront of these global risks. We, as citizens with a strong engagement in Earth system science and socio-ecological dynamics, share the vision of a more equitable and prosperous future for the world, yet we also see threats to this future from shifts in climate and environmental processes. Without collaborative action now, our shared Earth system may not be able to sustainably support a large proportion of humanity in the decades ahead.

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