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ABSTRACTTwo reports of Antarctic region potential new record high temperature observations (18.3°C, 6 February 2020 at Esperanza station and 20.8°C, 9 February 2020 at a Brazilian automated permafrost monitoring station on Seymour Island) were evaluated by a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) panel of atmospheric scientists. The latter figure was reported as 20.75°C in the media. The panel considered the synoptic situation and instrumental setups. It determined that a large high pressure system over the area created föhn conditions and resulted in local warming for both situations. Examination of the data and metadata of the Esperanza station observation revealed no major concerns. However, analysis of data and metadata of the Seymour Island permafrost monitoring station indicated that an improvised radiation shield led to a demonstrable thermal bias error for the temperature sensor. Consequently, the WMO has accepted the 18.3°C value for 1200 LST 6 February 2020 (1500 UTC 6 February 2020) at the Argentine Esperanza station as the new “Antarctic region (continental, including mainland and surrounding islands) highest temperature recorded observation” but rejected the 20.8°C observation at the Brazilian automated Seymour Island permafrost monitoring station as biased. The committee strongly emphasizes the permafrost monitoring station was not badly designed for its purpose, but the project investigators were forced to improvise a nonoptimal radiation shield after losing the original covering. Second, with regard to media dissemination of this type of information, the committee urges increased caution in early announcements as many media outlets often tend to sensationalize and mischaracterize potential records.

Two reports of Antarctic region potential new record high temperature observations (18.3 degrees C, 6 February 2020 at Esperanza station and 20.8 degrees C, 9 February 2020 at a Brazilian automated permafrost monitoring station on Seymour Island) were evaluated by a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) panel of atmospheric scientists. The latter figure was reported as 20.75 degrees C in the media. The panel considered the synoptic situation and instrumental setups. It determined that a large high pressure system over the area created fohn conditions and resulted in local warming for both situations. Examination of the data and metadata of the Esperanza station observation revealed no major concerns. However, analysis of data and metadata of the Seymour Island permafrost monitoring station indicated that an improvised radiation shield led to a demonstrable thermal bias error for the temperature sensor. Consequently, the WMO has accepted the 18.3 degrees C value for 1200 LST 6 February 2020 (1500 UTC 6 February 2020) at the Argentine Esperanza station as the new "Antarctic region (continental, including mainland and surrounding islands) highest temperature recorded observation" but rejected the 20.8 degrees C observation at the Brazilian automated Seymour Island permafrost monitoring station as biased. The committee strongly emphasizes the permafrost monitoring station was not badly designed for its purpose, but the project investigators were forced to improvise a nonoptimal radiation shield after losing the original covering. Second, with regard to media dissemination of this type of information, the committee urges increased caution in early announcements as many media outlets often tend to sensationalize and mischaracterize potential records.

Two reports of Antarctic region potential new record high temperature observations (18.3 degrees C, 6 February 2020 at Esperanza station and 20.8 degrees C, 9 February 2020 at a Brazilian automated permafrost monitoring station on Seymour Island) were evaluated by a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) panel of atmospheric scientists. The latter figure was reported as 20.75 degrees C in the media. The panel considered the synoptic situation and instrumental setups. It determined that a large high pressure system over the area created fohn conditions and resulted in local warming for both situations. Examination of the data and metadata of the Esperanza station observation revealed no major concerns. However, analysis of data and metadata of the Seymour Island permafrost monitoring station indicated that an improvised radiation shield led to a demonstrable thermal bias error for the temperature sensor. Consequently, the WMO has accepted the 18.3 degrees C value for 1200 LST 6 February 2020 (1500 UTC 6 February 2020) at the Argentine Esperanza station as the new "Antarctic region (continental, including mainland and surrounding islands) highest temperature recorded observation" but rejected the 20.8 degrees C observation at the Brazilian automated Seymour Island permafrost monitoring station as biased. The committee strongly emphasizes the permafrost monitoring station was not badly designed for its purpose, but the project investigators were forced to improvise a nonoptimal radiation shield after losing the original covering. Second, with regard to media dissemination of this type of information, the committee urges increased caution in early announcements as many media outlets often tend to sensationalize and mischaracterize potential records.

Over the last three decades, the South Pole has experienced a record-high statistically significant warming of 0.61 ± 0.34 °C per decade, more than three times the global average. Here, we use an ensemble of climate model experiments to show this recent warming lies within the upper bounds of the simulated range of natural variability. The warming resulted from a strong cyclonic anomaly in the Weddell Sea caused by increasing sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific. This circulation, coupled with a positive polarity of the Southern Annular Mode, advected warm and moist air from the South Atlantic into the Antarctic interior. These results underscore the intimate linkage of interior Antarctic climate to tropical variability. Further, this study shows that atmospheric internal variability can induce extreme regional climate change over the Antarctic interior, which has masked any anthropogenic warming signal there during the twenty-first century.

Over the last three decades, the South Pole has experienced a record-high statistically significant warming of 0.61 ± 0.34 °C per decade, more than three times the global average. Here, we use an ensemble of climate model experiments to show this recent warming lies within the upper bounds of the simulated range of natural variability. The warming resulted from a strong cyclonic anomaly in the Weddell Sea caused by increasing sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific. This circulation, coupled with a positive polarity of the Southern Annular Mode, advected warm and moist air from the South Atlantic into the Antarctic interior. These results underscore the intimate linkage of interior Antarctic climate to tropical variability. Further, this study shows that atmospheric internal variability can induce extreme regional climate change over the Antarctic interior, which has masked any anthropogenic warming signal there during the twenty-first century.

This ecological and geomorphological assessment of Horokiri Stream and Ration Creek was conducted across four longitudinal zones to explore the effects of sediment delivery, run-off, channel form, riparian and in-stream habitat. The Horokiri Stream channel has moved approximately 7 metres westward over the last 20 years, with both banks now covered in long grass, flaxes, natives with a mix of tall canopy trees. Looking at stream, Spearman’s for Ration at Figure 27 (n = 16, rho -0.243, p = 0.36) as deposited sediment increased, MCI decreased, non-significant. Spearman’s for Horokiri at Figure 28 (n = 16, rho 0.247, p = 0.35) as MCI increased with sediment, non-significant. Results from upstream of the riparian zones showed more deposited fine sediment. However, within both the riparian zones the sediment deposition was much lower. The native riparian planting along the stream banks had a positive effect on reducing sedimentation. The findings support the concept that the restoration of riparian zones with buffer widths exceeding 10 metres can improve stream habitat and invertebrate health. There was no relationship between flow and deposition rate P(X2>241.84) = 0.24. Figure 24 shows deposited sediment on MCI depending on land use groups (X2 = 11.81, df = 4, p = 0.019). No statistically significant differences were found (comparing the effect of sediment between different land use management groups). An experiment investigated a disturbance hypothesis in both Ration Creek and Horokiri Stream was conducted during February 2019. The experiment was designed to be long enough to study the effects of four weekly pulse flushing events created by scrapping the stream bed with a drain drag tool and the effects of a press sustained disturbance on the macroinvertebrate community. I measured the sediment and the macroinvertebrate captured in each trap within the experiment site every seven days. My prediction was that macroinvertebrate communities subject to sustained fine sedi

Climate change impacts are beginning to be felt across the world. Therefore, the development and understanding of adaptation options is becoming more important. Sea-level rise and its associated impacts are predicted to continue and accelerate well into the next century. As such, it is important that adaptation options which reduce risks associated with sea-level rise are developed and are well understood. Managed retreat is one such option. While research on managed retreat is increasing, there is a lack of literature that identifies what managed retreat comprises, how to plan and stage the option over time, and how to cost it as an adaptation option. This thesis aims to address this gap in the literature by answering the following three questions: (1) what are the issues related to implementing managed retreat as an adaptation strategy in coastal areas, now, and moving into the future?; (2) what are the components of managed retreat?; and (3) what framework could be developed for costing managed retreat? A qualitative ‘desk-top’ approach was taken to deconstruct the components of managed retreat across space and time and to develop a framework for costing the components as part of an adaptation strategy. An in-depth analysis of literature, enabled an understanding of managed retreat implementation, and also informed the development of a component typology and costing framework for the adaptation option. The typology and framework were then tested for relevance and utility for decision making through a series of semi-structured discussions with key informants working in climate change adaptation. Using the component typology and costing framework, a new approach is presented for staging and costing managed retreat, over time and in different contexts. The typology and framework contribute knowledge and guidance for local governments and infrastructure agencies when discussing managed retreat with their communities, for identifying and staging managed retreat, and f

Sea ice is a critical component of the polar climate system that is tightly coupled to the ocean and atmosphere. It is highly heterogeneous, composed of discrete floes which range in size across space and time. In this thesis, I use a combination of modelling and observational approaches to investigate how different physical processes determine the distribution of sea ice floe sizes. I construct the first global model that simulates floe sizes arising from the interaction of different physical processes. Floe sizes are modified by lateral melt, lateral growth, freezing together of floes and wave-ice interactions. By grounding process descriptions in underlying physics, observations of individual processes can be used to constrain model parameters. In light of the sparseness of floe size observations, I developed a novel methodology to constrain previously-unobserved floe freezing processes from in-situ observations. Results from global coupled sea ice–ocean model simulations are used to quantify the relative impacts of different processes on spatial and seasonal variability in the floe size distribution, providing hypotheses that could be tested by observational campaigns in the future. Under transient historical forcing, the model suggests that the fragmentation of Arctic sea ice has significantly increased over the satellite era. I also seek to improve understanding of feedbacks between sea ice floe size and the polar climate system. A fragmented ice cover exposes more ice area on the sides of floes to the ocean than sheet ice, promoting lateral melt, which reduces surface albedo. Conducting a statistical analysis of current climate models shows that inclusion of a lateral melt parametrization improves simulation of sea ice concentration relative to observations. However, calculation of lateral melt using the model for prognostic simulation of the sub-grid-scale floe size distribution results in little or no enhancement of lateral melt at a hemispheric scale compa

This ecological and geomorphological assessment of Horokiri Stream and Ration Creek was conducted across four longitudinal zones to explore the effects of sediment delivery, run-off, channel form, riparian and in-stream habitat. The Horokiri Stream channel has moved approximately 7 metres westward over the last 20 years, with both banks now covered in long grass, flaxes, natives with a mix of tall canopy trees. Looking at stream, Spearman’s for Ration at Figure 27 (n = 16, rho -0.243, p = 0.36) as deposited sediment increased, MCI decreased, non-significant. Spearman’s for Horokiri at Figure 28 (n = 16, rho 0.247, p = 0.35) as MCI increased with sediment, non-significant. Results from upstream of the riparian zones showed more deposited fine sediment. However, within both the riparian zones the sediment deposition was much lower. The native riparian planting along the stream banks had a positive effect on reducing sedimentation. The findings support the concept that the restoration of riparian zones with buffer widths exceeding 10 metres can improve stream habitat and invertebrate health. There was no relationship between flow and deposition rate P(X2>241.84) = 0.24. Figure 24 shows deposited sediment on MCI depending on land use groups (X2 = 11.81, df = 4, p = 0.019). No statistically significant differences were found (comparing the effect of sediment between different land use management groups). An experiment investigated a disturbance hypothesis in both Ration Creek and Horokiri Stream was conducted during February 2019. The experiment was designed to be long enough to study the effects of four weekly pulse flushing events created by scrapping the stream bed with a drain drag tool and the effects of a press sustained disturbance on the macroinvertebrate community. I measured the sediment and the macroinvertebrate captured in each trap within the experiment site every seven days. My prediction was that macroinvertebrate communities subject to sustained fine sedi

Climate change impacts are beginning to be felt across the world. Therefore, the development and understanding of adaptation options is becoming more important. Sea-level rise and its associated impacts are predicted to continue and accelerate well into the next century. As such, it is important that adaptation options which reduce risks associated with sea-level rise are developed and are well understood. Managed retreat is one such option. While research on managed retreat is increasing, there is a lack of literature that identifies what managed retreat comprises, how to plan and stage the option over time, and how to cost it as an adaptation option. This thesis aims to address this gap in the literature by answering the following three questions: (1) what are the issues related to implementing managed retreat as an adaptation strategy in coastal areas, now, and moving into the future?; (2) what are the components of managed retreat?; and (3) what framework could be developed for costing managed retreat? A qualitative ‘desk-top’ approach was taken to deconstruct the components of managed retreat across space and time and to develop a framework for costing the components as part of an adaptation strategy. An in-depth analysis of literature, enabled an understanding of managed retreat implementation, and also informed the development of a component typology and costing framework for the adaptation option. The typology and framework were then tested for relevance and utility for decision making through a series of semi-structured discussions with key informants working in climate change adaptation. Using the component typology and costing framework, a new approach is presented for staging and costing managed retreat, over time and in different contexts. The typology and framework contribute knowledge and guidance for local governments and infrastructure agencies when discussing managed retreat with their communities, for identifying and staging managed retreat, and f

Sea ice is a critical component of the polar climate system that is tightly coupled to the ocean and atmosphere. It is highly heterogeneous, composed of discrete floes which range in size across space and time. In this thesis, I use a combination of modelling and observational approaches to investigate how different physical processes determine the distribution of sea ice floe sizes. I construct the first global model that simulates floe sizes arising from the interaction of different physical processes. Floe sizes are modified by lateral melt, lateral growth, freezing together of floes and wave-ice interactions. By grounding process descriptions in underlying physics, observations of individual processes can be used to constrain model parameters. In light of the sparseness of floe size observations, I developed a novel methodology to constrain previously-unobserved floe freezing processes from in-situ observations. Results from global coupled sea ice–ocean model simulations are used to quantify the relative impacts of different processes on spatial and seasonal variability in the floe size distribution, providing hypotheses that could be tested by observational campaigns in the future. Under transient historical forcing, the model suggests that the fragmentation of Arctic sea ice has significantly increased over the satellite era. I also seek to improve understanding of feedbacks between sea ice floe size and the polar climate system. A fragmented ice cover exposes more ice area on the sides of floes to the ocean than sheet ice, promoting lateral melt, which reduces surface albedo. Conducting a statistical analysis of current climate models shows that inclusion of a lateral melt parametrization improves simulation of sea ice concentration relative to observations. However, calculation of lateral melt using the model for prognostic simulation of the sub-grid-scale floe size distribution results in little or no enhancement of lateral melt at a hemispheric scale compa

This ecological and geomorphological assessment of Horokiri Stream and Ration Creek was conducted across four longitudinal zones to explore the effects of sediment delivery, run-off, channel form, riparian and in-stream habitat. The Horokiri Stream channel has moved approximately 7 metres westward over the last 20 years, with both banks now covered in long grass, flaxes, natives with a mix of tall canopy trees. Looking at stream, Spearman’s for Ration at Figure 27 (n = 16, rho -0.243, p = 0.36) as deposited sediment increased, MCI decreased, non-significant. Spearman’s for Horokiri at Figure 28 (n = 16, rho 0.247, p = 0.35) as MCI increased with sediment, non-significant. Results from upstream of the riparian zones showed more deposited fine sediment. However, within both the riparian zones the sediment deposition was much lower. The native riparian planting along the stream banks had a positive effect on reducing sedimentation. The findings support the concept that the restoration of riparian zones with buffer widths exceeding 10 metres can improve stream habitat and invertebrate health. There was no relationship between flow and deposition rate P(X2>241.84) = 0.24. Figure 24 shows deposited sediment on MCI depending on land use groups (X2 = 11.81, df = 4, p = 0.019). No statistically significant differences were found (comparing the effect of sediment between different land use management groups). An experiment investigated a disturbance hypothesis in both Ration Creek and Horokiri Stream was conducted during February 2019. The experiment was designed to be long enough to study the effects of four weekly pulse flushing events created by scrapping the stream bed with a drain drag tool and the effects of a press sustained disturbance on the macroinvertebrate community. I measured the sediment and the macroinvertebrate captured in each trap within the experiment site every seven days. My prediction was that macroinvertebrate communities subject to sustained fine sedi

Climate change impacts are beginning to be felt across the world. Therefore, the development and understanding of adaptation options is becoming more important. Sea-level rise and its associated impacts are predicted to continue and accelerate well into the next century. As such, it is important that adaptation options which reduce risks associated with sea-level rise are developed and are well understood. Managed retreat is one such option. While research on managed retreat is increasing, there is a lack of literature that identifies what managed retreat comprises, how to plan and stage the option over time, and how to cost it as an adaptation option. This thesis aims to address this gap in the literature by answering the following three questions: (1) what are the issues related to implementing managed retreat as an adaptation strategy in coastal areas, now, and moving into the future?; (2) what are the components of managed retreat?; and (3) what framework could be developed for costing managed retreat? A qualitative ‘desk-top’ approach was taken to deconstruct the components of managed retreat across space and time and to develop a framework for costing the components as part of an adaptation strategy. An in-depth analysis of literature, enabled an understanding of managed retreat implementation, and also informed the development of a component typology and costing framework for the adaptation option. The typology and framework were then tested for relevance and utility for decision making through a series of semi-structured discussions with key informants working in climate change adaptation. Using the component typology and costing framework, a new approach is presented for staging and costing managed retreat, over time and in different contexts. The typology and framework contribute knowledge and guidance for local governments and infrastructure agencies when discussing managed retreat with their communities, for identifying and staging managed retreat, and f

The strongest stratospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is the Antarctic Circumpolar Vortex (ACV) which forms each winter and spring as a zone of westerly winds surrounding Antarctica, presenting a barrier to transport of air masses between middle and high-latitudes. This barrier contributes to stratospheric temperatures above the polar region dropping sufficiently low in spring to allow for the processes leading to ozone destruction. Unfortunately, the ACV is generally not well simulated in Global Climate Models (GCMs), and this presents a challenge for model accuracy and projections in the face of a changing climate and a recovering ozone hole. In this research, an assessment is made of the performance of a range of mixing metrics in representing the ACV based on reanalyses, including: Effective Diffusivity, Contour Crossing, the Lagrangian function $M$, and Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that Meridional Impermeability -- which provides a measure of the strength of the meridional mixing barrier as a function of potential vorticity (PV) gradient and wind-speed -- acts as a useful proxy for more complex metrics. In addition, Meridional Impermeability displays a well-defined vortex profile across equivalent latitude, which is not seen to the same degree in the other metrics assessed. Representation of the ACV is further compared between climate models and reanalyses based on Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that while climate models have improved in their representation of the vortex barrier over time, there are still significant discrepancies between models and reanalyses. One cause of these discrepancies may result from the use of prescribed ozone fields rather than interactive ozone chemistry. This is further examined by comparing Chemistry Climate Model (CCM) simulations using interactive ozone chemistry, with those using prescribed ozone at either 3-D (i.e., height, latitude and longitude) or 2-D (i.e., height, latitude) dimensionality.

This ecological and geomorphological assessment of Horokiri Stream and Ration Creek was conducted across four longitudinal zones to explore the effects of sediment delivery, run-off, channel form, riparian and in-stream habitat. The Horokiri Stream channel has moved approximately 7 metres westward over the last 20 years, with both banks now covered in long grass, flaxes, natives with a mix of tall canopy trees. Looking at stream, Spearman’s for Ration at Figure 27 (n = 16, rho -0.243, p = 0.36) as deposited sediment increased, MCI decreased, non-significant. Spearman’s for Horokiri at Figure 28 (n = 16, rho 0.247, p = 0.35) as MCI increased with sediment, non-significant. Results from upstream of the riparian zones showed more deposited fine sediment. However, within both the riparian zones the sediment deposition was much lower. The native riparian planting along the stream banks had a positive effect on reducing sedimentation. The findings support the concept that the restoration of riparian zones with buffer widths exceeding 10 metres can improve stream habitat and invertebrate health. There was no relationship between flow and deposition rate P(X2>241.84) = 0.24. Figure 24 shows deposited sediment on MCI depending on land use groups (X2 = 11.81, df = 4, p = 0.019). No statistically significant differences were found (comparing the effect of sediment between different land use management groups). An experiment investigated a disturbance hypothesis in both Ration Creek and Horokiri Stream was conducted during February 2019. The experiment was designed to be long enough to study the effects of four weekly pulse flushing events created by scrapping the stream bed with a drain drag tool and the effects of a press sustained disturbance on the macroinvertebrate community. I measured the sediment and the macroinvertebrate captured in each trap within the experiment site every seven days. My prediction was that macroinvertebrate communities subject to sustained fine sedi

Central Southwest Asia (CSWA; 20°–47°N, 40°–85°E) is a water-scarce and a societally vulnerable region, prone to significant variations in precipitation during the winter months of November–April. Wintertime precipitation variations have a direct impact on CSWA's water resources, agricultural productivity, energy use, and human society. Because of the close relationship between climate and human well-being, an improved understanding of winter season precipitation and its variability over CSWA is of critical importance. However, due to multiple regional challenges (e.g. socio-political instability, extreme topographical heterogeneity, poor coverage of in situ stations, and others) analysis of precipitation in this region has been limited. In an attempt to bridge the existing knowledge gap, this thesis aims to advance our understanding of CSWA's wintertime precipitation climate through three separate, but inter-related studies on 1) evaluation of multi-source gridded precipitation dataset, 2) investigation of spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and its links with large-scale modes of climate variability, 3) development of a statistical forecast model. Additionally, precipitation evaluation is also relevant to the overlapping and important region of the Indian subcontinent; a detailed seasonal analysis for which is also presented. First, the performance of several commonly used gridded precipitation products from multiple sources: gauge-based, satellite-derived, and reanalysis is analysed for all four seasons over the Indian Subcontinent. Results show that the degree of uncertainty in all precipitation estimates varies by region (e.g. topographic relief) and the type of precipitation (e.g. convective, orographic). At the seasonal scale, satellite-products perform better, while reanalyses generally overestimate precipitation. Greater discrepancies occur in areas with low gauge densities, owing to which a complete understanding of the accuracy and limitations

This ecological and geomorphological assessment of Horokiri Stream and Ration Creek was conducted across four longitudinal zones to explore the effects of sediment delivery, run-off, channel form, riparian and in-stream habitat. The Horokiri Stream channel has moved approximately 7 metres westward over the last 20 years, with both banks now covered in long grass, flaxes, natives with a mix of tall canopy trees. Looking at stream, Spearman’s for Ration at Figure 27 (n = 16, rho -0.243, p = 0.36) as deposited sediment increased, MCI decreased, non-significant. Spearman’s for Horokiri at Figure 28 (n = 16, rho 0.247, p = 0.35) as MCI increased with sediment, non-significant. Results from upstream of the riparian zones showed more deposited fine sediment. However, within both the riparian zones the sediment deposition was much lower. The native riparian planting along the stream banks had a positive effect on reducing sedimentation. The findings support the concept that the restoration of riparian zones with buffer widths exceeding 10 metres can improve stream habitat and invertebrate health. There was no relationship between flow and deposition rate P(X2>241.84) = 0.24. Figure 24 shows deposited sediment on MCI depending on land use groups (X2 = 11.81, df = 4, p = 0.019). No statistically significant differences were found (comparing the effect of sediment between different land use management groups). An experiment investigated a disturbance hypothesis in both Ration Creek and Horokiri Stream was conducted during February 2019. The experiment was designed to be long enough to study the effects of four weekly pulse flushing events created by scrapping the stream bed with a drain drag tool and the effects of a press sustained disturbance on the macroinvertebrate community. I measured the sediment and the macroinvertebrate captured in each trap within the experiment site every seven days. My prediction was that macroinvertebrate communities subject to sustained fine sedi

The strongest stratospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is the Antarctic Circumpolar Vortex (ACV) which forms each winter and spring as a zone of westerly winds surrounding Antarctica, presenting a barrier to transport of air masses between middle and high-latitudes. This barrier contributes to stratospheric temperatures above the polar region dropping sufficiently low in spring to allow for the processes leading to ozone destruction. Unfortunately, the ACV is generally not well simulated in Global Climate Models (GCMs), and this presents a challenge for model accuracy and projections in the face of a changing climate and a recovering ozone hole. In this research, an assessment is made of the performance of a range of mixing metrics in representing the ACV based on reanalyses, including: Effective Diffusivity, Contour Crossing, the Lagrangian function $M$, and Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that Meridional Impermeability -- which provides a measure of the strength of the meridional mixing barrier as a function of potential vorticity (PV) gradient and wind-speed -- acts as a useful proxy for more complex metrics. In addition, Meridional Impermeability displays a well-defined vortex profile across equivalent latitude, which is not seen to the same degree in the other metrics assessed. Representation of the ACV is further compared between climate models and reanalyses based on Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that while climate models have improved in their representation of the vortex barrier over time, there are still significant discrepancies between models and reanalyses. One cause of these discrepancies may result from the use of prescribed ozone fields rather than interactive ozone chemistry. This is further examined by comparing Chemistry Climate Model (CCM) simulations using interactive ozone chemistry, with those using prescribed ozone at either 3-D (i.e., height, latitude and longitude) or 2-D (i.e., height, latitude) dimensionality.

The strongest stratospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is the Antarctic Circumpolar Vortex (ACV) which forms each winter and spring as a zone of westerly winds surrounding Antarctica, presenting a barrier to transport of air masses between middle and high-latitudes. This barrier contributes to stratospheric temperatures above the polar region dropping sufficiently low in spring to allow for the processes leading to ozone destruction. Unfortunately, the ACV is generally not well simulated in Global Climate Models (GCMs), and this presents a challenge for model accuracy and projections in the face of a changing climate and a recovering ozone hole. In this research, an assessment is made of the performance of a range of mixing metrics in representing the ACV based on reanalyses, including: Effective Diffusivity, Contour Crossing, the Lagrangian function $M$, and Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that Meridional Impermeability -- which provides a measure of the strength of the meridional mixing barrier as a function of potential vorticity (PV) gradient and wind-speed -- acts as a useful proxy for more complex metrics. In addition, Meridional Impermeability displays a well-defined vortex profile across equivalent latitude, which is not seen to the same degree in the other metrics assessed. Representation of the ACV is further compared between climate models and reanalyses based on Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that while climate models have improved in their representation of the vortex barrier over time, there are still significant discrepancies between models and reanalyses. One cause of these discrepancies may result from the use of prescribed ozone fields rather than interactive ozone chemistry. This is further examined by comparing Chemistry Climate Model (CCM) simulations using interactive ozone chemistry, with those using prescribed ozone at either 3-D (i.e., height, latitude and longitude) or 2-D (i.e., height, latitude) dimensionality.

Central Southwest Asia (CSWA; 20°–47°N, 40°–85°E) is a water-scarce and a societally vulnerable region, prone to significant variations in precipitation during the winter months of November–April. Wintertime precipitation variations have a direct impact on CSWA's water resources, agricultural productivity, energy use, and human society. Because of the close relationship between climate and human well-being, an improved understanding of winter season precipitation and its variability over CSWA is of critical importance. However, due to multiple regional challenges (e.g. socio-political instability, extreme topographical heterogeneity, poor coverage of in situ stations, and others) analysis of precipitation in this region has been limited. In an attempt to bridge the existing knowledge gap, this thesis aims to advance our understanding of CSWA's wintertime precipitation climate through three separate, but inter-related studies on 1) evaluation of multi-source gridded precipitation dataset, 2) investigation of spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and its links with large-scale modes of climate variability, 3) development of a statistical forecast model. Additionally, precipitation evaluation is also relevant to the overlapping and important region of the Indian subcontinent; a detailed seasonal analysis for which is also presented. First, the performance of several commonly used gridded precipitation products from multiple sources: gauge-based, satellite-derived, and reanalysis is analysed for all four seasons over the Indian Subcontinent. Results show that the degree of uncertainty in all precipitation estimates varies by region (e.g. topographic relief) and the type of precipitation (e.g. convective, orographic). At the seasonal scale, satellite-products perform better, while reanalyses generally overestimate precipitation. Greater discrepancies occur in areas with low gauge densities, owing to which a complete understanding of the accuracy and limitations

Sea ice is a critical component of the polar climate system that is tightly coupled to the ocean and atmosphere. It is highly heterogeneous, composed of discrete floes which range in size across space and time. In this thesis, I use a combination of modelling and observational approaches to investigate how different physical processes determine the distribution of sea ice floe sizes. I construct the first global model that simulates floe sizes arising from the interaction of different physical processes. Floe sizes are modified by lateral melt, lateral growth, freezing together of floes and wave-ice interactions. By grounding process descriptions in underlying physics, observations of individual processes can be used to constrain model parameters. In light of the sparseness of floe size observations, I developed a novel methodology to constrain previously-unobserved floe freezing processes from in-situ observations. Results from global coupled sea ice–ocean model simulations are used to quantify the relative impacts of different processes on spatial and seasonal variability in the floe size distribution, providing hypotheses that could be tested by observational campaigns in the future. Under transient historical forcing, the model suggests that the fragmentation of Arctic sea ice has significantly increased over the satellite era. I also seek to improve understanding of feedbacks between sea ice floe size and the polar climate system. A fragmented ice cover exposes more ice area on the sides of floes to the ocean than sheet ice, promoting lateral melt, which reduces surface albedo. Conducting a statistical analysis of current climate models shows that inclusion of a lateral melt parametrization improves simulation of sea ice concentration relative to observations. However, calculation of lateral melt using the model for prognostic simulation of the sub-grid-scale floe size distribution results in little or no enhancement of lateral melt at a hemispheric scale compa

Central Southwest Asia (CSWA; 20°–47°N, 40°–85°E) is a water-scarce and a societally vulnerable region, prone to significant variations in precipitation during the winter months of November–April. Wintertime precipitation variations have a direct impact on CSWA's water resources, agricultural productivity, energy use, and human society. Because of the close relationship between climate and human well-being, an improved understanding of winter season precipitation and its variability over CSWA is of critical importance. However, due to multiple regional challenges (e.g. socio-political instability, extreme topographical heterogeneity, poor coverage of in situ stations, and others) analysis of precipitation in this region has been limited. In an attempt to bridge the existing knowledge gap, this thesis aims to advance our understanding of CSWA's wintertime precipitation climate through three separate, but inter-related studies on 1) evaluation of multi-source gridded precipitation dataset, 2) investigation of spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and its links with large-scale modes of climate variability, 3) development of a statistical forecast model. Additionally, precipitation evaluation is also relevant to the overlapping and important region of the Indian subcontinent; a detailed seasonal analysis for which is also presented. First, the performance of several commonly used gridded precipitation products from multiple sources: gauge-based, satellite-derived, and reanalysis is analysed for all four seasons over the Indian Subcontinent. Results show that the degree of uncertainty in all precipitation estimates varies by region (e.g. topographic relief) and the type of precipitation (e.g. convective, orographic). At the seasonal scale, satellite-products perform better, while reanalyses generally overestimate precipitation. Greater discrepancies occur in areas with low gauge densities, owing to which a complete understanding of the accuracy and limitations

Climate change impacts are beginning to be felt across the world. Therefore, the development and understanding of adaptation options is becoming more important. Sea-level rise and its associated impacts are predicted to continue and accelerate well into the next century. As such, it is important that adaptation options which reduce risks associated with sea-level rise are developed and are well understood. Managed retreat is one such option. While research on managed retreat is increasing, there is a lack of literature that identifies what managed retreat comprises, how to plan and stage the option over time, and how to cost it as an adaptation option. This thesis aims to address this gap in the literature by answering the following three questions: (1) what are the issues related to implementing managed retreat as an adaptation strategy in coastal areas, now, and moving into the future?; (2) what are the components of managed retreat?; and (3) what framework could be developed for costing managed retreat? A qualitative ‘desk-top’ approach was taken to deconstruct the components of managed retreat across space and time and to develop a framework for costing the components as part of an adaptation strategy. An in-depth analysis of literature, enabled an understanding of managed retreat implementation, and also informed the development of a component typology and costing framework for the adaptation option. The typology and framework were then tested for relevance and utility for decision making through a series of semi-structured discussions with key informants working in climate change adaptation. Using the component typology and costing framework, a new approach is presented for staging and costing managed retreat, over time and in different contexts. The typology and framework contribute knowledge and guidance for local governments and infrastructure agencies when discussing managed retreat with their communities, for identifying and staging managed retreat, and f

Sea ice is a critical component of the polar climate system that is tightly coupled to the ocean and atmosphere. It is highly heterogeneous, composed of discrete floes which range in size across space and time. In this thesis, I use a combination of modelling and observational approaches to investigate how different physical processes determine the distribution of sea ice floe sizes. I construct the first global model that simulates floe sizes arising from the interaction of different physical processes. Floe sizes are modified by lateral melt, lateral growth, freezing together of floes and wave-ice interactions. By grounding process descriptions in underlying physics, observations of individual processes can be used to constrain model parameters. In light of the sparseness of floe size observations, I developed a novel methodology to constrain previously-unobserved floe freezing processes from in-situ observations. Results from global coupled sea ice–ocean model simulations are used to quantify the relative impacts of different processes on spatial and seasonal variability in the floe size distribution, providing hypotheses that could be tested by observational campaigns in the future. Under transient historical forcing, the model suggests that the fragmentation of Arctic sea ice has significantly increased over the satellite era. I also seek to improve understanding of feedbacks between sea ice floe size and the polar climate system. A fragmented ice cover exposes more ice area on the sides of floes to the ocean than sheet ice, promoting lateral melt, which reduces surface albedo. Conducting a statistical analysis of current climate models shows that inclusion of a lateral melt parametrization improves simulation of sea ice concentration relative to observations. However, calculation of lateral melt using the model for prognostic simulation of the sub-grid-scale floe size distribution results in little or no enhancement of lateral melt at a hemispheric scale compa

The strongest stratospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is the Antarctic Circumpolar Vortex (ACV) which forms each winter and spring as a zone of westerly winds surrounding Antarctica, presenting a barrier to transport of air masses between middle and high-latitudes. This barrier contributes to stratospheric temperatures above the polar region dropping sufficiently low in spring to allow for the processes leading to ozone destruction. Unfortunately, the ACV is generally not well simulated in Global Climate Models (GCMs), and this presents a challenge for model accuracy and projections in the face of a changing climate and a recovering ozone hole. In this research, an assessment is made of the performance of a range of mixing metrics in representing the ACV based on reanalyses, including: Effective Diffusivity, Contour Crossing, the Lagrangian function $M$, and Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that Meridional Impermeability -- which provides a measure of the strength of the meridional mixing barrier as a function of potential vorticity (PV) gradient and wind-speed -- acts as a useful proxy for more complex metrics. In addition, Meridional Impermeability displays a well-defined vortex profile across equivalent latitude, which is not seen to the same degree in the other metrics assessed. Representation of the ACV is further compared between climate models and reanalyses based on Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that while climate models have improved in their representation of the vortex barrier over time, there are still significant discrepancies between models and reanalyses. One cause of these discrepancies may result from the use of prescribed ozone fields rather than interactive ozone chemistry. This is further examined by comparing Chemistry Climate Model (CCM) simulations using interactive ozone chemistry, with those using prescribed ozone at either 3-D (i.e., height, latitude and longitude) or 2-D (i.e., height, latitude) dimensionality.

Central Southwest Asia (CSWA; 20°–47°N, 40°–85°E) is a water-scarce and a societally vulnerable region, prone to significant variations in precipitation during the winter months of November–April. Wintertime precipitation variations have a direct impact on CSWA's water resources, agricultural productivity, energy use, and human society. Because of the close relationship between climate and human well-being, an improved understanding of winter season precipitation and its variability over CSWA is of critical importance. However, due to multiple regional challenges (e.g. socio-political instability, extreme topographical heterogeneity, poor coverage of in situ stations, and others) analysis of precipitation in this region has been limited. In an attempt to bridge the existing knowledge gap, this thesis aims to advance our understanding of CSWA's wintertime precipitation climate through three separate, but inter-related studies on 1) evaluation of multi-source gridded precipitation dataset, 2) investigation of spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and its links with large-scale modes of climate variability, 3) development of a statistical forecast model. Additionally, precipitation evaluation is also relevant to the overlapping and important region of the Indian subcontinent; a detailed seasonal analysis for which is also presented. First, the performance of several commonly used gridded precipitation products from multiple sources: gauge-based, satellite-derived, and reanalysis is analysed for all four seasons over the Indian Subcontinent. Results show that the degree of uncertainty in all precipitation estimates varies by region (e.g. topographic relief) and the type of precipitation (e.g. convective, orographic). At the seasonal scale, satellite-products perform better, while reanalyses generally overestimate precipitation. Greater discrepancies occur in areas with low gauge densities, owing to which a complete understanding of the accuracy and limitations

Climate change impacts are beginning to be felt across the world. Therefore, the development and understanding of adaptation options is becoming more important. Sea-level rise and its associated impacts are predicted to continue and accelerate well into the next century. As such, it is important that adaptation options which reduce risks associated with sea-level rise are developed and are well understood. Managed retreat is one such option. While research on managed retreat is increasing, there is a lack of literature that identifies what managed retreat comprises, how to plan and stage the option over time, and how to cost it as an adaptation option. This thesis aims to address this gap in the literature by answering the following three questions: (1) what are the issues related to implementing managed retreat as an adaptation strategy in coastal areas, now, and moving into the future?; (2) what are the components of managed retreat?; and (3) what framework could be developed for costing managed retreat? A qualitative ‘desk-top’ approach was taken to deconstruct the components of managed retreat across space and time and to develop a framework for costing the components as part of an adaptation strategy. An in-depth analysis of literature, enabled an understanding of managed retreat implementation, and also informed the development of a component typology and costing framework for the adaptation option. The typology and framework were then tested for relevance and utility for decision making through a series of semi-structured discussions with key informants working in climate change adaptation. Using the component typology and costing framework, a new approach is presented for staging and costing managed retreat, over time and in different contexts. The typology and framework contribute knowledge and guidance for local governments and infrastructure agencies when discussing managed retreat with their communities, for identifying and staging managed retreat, and f

We propose and apply a new approach to determining $|V_{us}|$ using dispersion relations with weight functions having poles at Euclidean (space-like) momentum which relate strange hadronic $\tau$ decay distributions to hadronic vacuum polarization functions (HVPs) obtained from lattice QCD. We show examples where spectral integral contributions from the region where experimental data have large errors or do not exist are strongly suppressed but accurate determinations of the relevant lattice HVP combinations remain possible. The resulting $|V_{us}|$ agrees well with determinations from $K$ physics and 3-family CKM unitarity. Advantages of this new approach over the conventional hadronic $\tau$ decay determination employing flavor-breaking sum rules are also discussed., Comment: 10 pages, 11 figures. References added and minor modifications. Accepted for publication in Physical Review Letters

High-resolution, well-dated climate archives provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamic interactions of climate patterns relevant for future projections. Here, we present data from a new, annually dated ice core record from the eastern Ross Sea, named the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core. Comparison of this record with climate reanalysis data for the 1979–2012 interval shows that RICE reliably captures temperature and snow precipitation variability in the region. Trends over the past 2700 years in RICE are shown to be distinct from those in West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea captured by other ice cores. For most of this interval, the eastern Ross Sea was warming (or showing isotopic enrichment for other reasons), with increased snow accumulation and perhaps decreased sea ice concentration. However, West Antarctica cooled and the western Ross Sea showed no significant isotope temperature trend. This pattern here is referred to as the Ross Sea Dipole. Notably, during the Little Ice Age, West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea experienced colder than average temperatures, while the eastern Ross Sea underwent a period of warming or increased isotopic enrichment. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. All three regions show current warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea but increasing in the western Ross Sea. We interpret this pattern as reflecting an increase in sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea with perhaps the establishment of a modern Roosevelt Island polynya as a local moisture source for RICE.

High-resolution, well-dated climate archives provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamic interactions of climate patterns relevant for future projections. Here, we present data from a new, annually dated ice core record from the eastern Ross Sea, named the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core. Comparison of this record with climate reanalysis data for the 1979-2012 interval shows that RICE reliably captures temperature and snow precipitation variability in the region. Trends over the past 2700 years in RICE are shown to be distinct from those in West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea captured by other ice cores. For most of this interval, the eastern Ross Sea was warming (or showing isotopic enrichment for other reasons), with increased snow accumulation and perhaps decreased sea ice concentration. However, West Antarctica cooled and the western Ross Sea showed no significant isotope temperature trend. This pattern here is referred to as the Ross Sea Dipole. Notably, during the Little Ice Age, West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea experienced colder than average temperatures, while the eastern Ross Sea underwent a period of warming or increased isotopic enrichment. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. All three regions show current warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea but increasing in the western Ross Sea. We interpret this pattern as reflecting an increase in sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea with perhaps the establishment of a modern Roosevelt Island polynya as a local moisture source for RICE

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainfall feature in the Southern Hemisphere, and is a critical component of the climate of Southwest Pacific Island nations. The small size and isolated nature of these islands leaves them vulnerable to short and long term changes in the position of the SPCZ. Its location and strength is strongly modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), leading to large inter-annual and decadal variability in rainfall across the Southwest Pacific. Much of the analysis on the SPCZ has been restricted to the modern period, more specifically the “satellite era”, starting in 1979. Here, the representation of the SPCZ in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) product, which reconstructs the three-dimensional state of the atmosphere based only on surface observations is discussed. The performance of two versions of the 20CR (versions 2 and 2c) in the satellite era is tested via inter-comparison with other reanalysis and observational satellite products, before using 20CR version 2c (20CRv2c) to perform extended analysis back to the early twentieth century. This study demonstrates that 20CR performs well in the satellite era, and is considered suitable for extended analysis. It is established that extra data added in the SPCZ region between 20CR versions 2 and 2c has improved the representation of the SPCZ during 1908-1958. Well-established relationships between ENSO and the IPO with the SPCZ are shown to be present through the entire 1908-2011 period, although it is suggested that the physical link between the IPO and the SPCZ has changed between the first and second half of the twentieth century. Finally, evidence of a southward trend of the SPCZ over the past century is presented, potentially due to an expansion of the tropics as a result of climate change.

Extreme weather and climate-related events can have pronounced environmental, economic and societal impacts, yet large natural variability within Earth’s constantly evolving climate system challenges the understanding of how these phenomena are changing. Increasingly powerful climate models have made it possible to study how certain factors, including anthropogenic forcings, have modified the likelihood and magnitude of extreme events. This study examines climate observations, reanalysis fields and model output to assess how weather extremes and climate-related events have changed. Part 1 investigates the detection and attribution of surface climate changes in relation to ozone depletion. Part 2 uses probabilistic event attribution and storyline frameworks to evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcings in altering the risk of extreme 1-day rainfall (RX1D) events for Christchurch, New Zealand in light of an unprecedented rainfall event that occurred in March 2014. Extremely large simulations of possible weather generated by the weather@home Australia-New Zealand (w@h ANZ) model found ozone forcings induced significant changes globally (< 3 hPa) in simulations of mean sea level pressure for 2013. A clear seasonal response was detected in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation that was consistent with prior studies. Ozone-induced changes to average monthly rainfall were not significant in New Zealand with large natural variability and the limitation of one-year simulations challenging attribution to this climate forcing. In Christchurch, model and observational data give evidence of human activity increasing the likelihood and magnitude (+17%) of RX1D events despite significant drying trends for mean total rainfall (-66%) in austral summer. For events similar to that observed during March 2014, the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) is estimated to be 27.4%. This result was robust across different spatial averaging areas though is sensitive to the rainfall threshold

We present results from a calculation of beyond the standard model (BSM) kaon mixing including data physical with light quark masses. We simulate $N_f=2+1$ QCD with Iwasaki gauge and domain wall fermion action on 8 ensembles, spanning 3 lattice spacings and pion masses from the physical value up to 430MeV. The ratio of the BSM to standard model (SM) matrix elements are extracted from the correlation functions and renormalised using the RI-SMOM Rome-Southampton method with non-exceptional kinematics. The results at the physical point continuum limit are found by performing a simultaneous continuum chiral extrapolation. In this work we gain consistency with our previous results and achieve a reduction in both the statistical and systematic error., Comment: The 36th Annual International Symposium on Lattice Field

High-resolution, well-dated climate archives provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamic interactions of climate patterns relevant for future projections. Here, we present data from a new, annually-dated ice core record from the eastern Ross Sea. Comparison of the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core records with climate reanalysis data for the 1979–2012 calibration period shows that RICE records reliably capture temperature and snow precipitation variability of the region. RICE is compared with data from West Antarctica (West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Ice Core) and the western (Talos Dome) and eastern (Siple Dome) Ross Sea. For most of the past 2,700 years, the eastern Ross Sea was warming with perhaps increased snow accumulation and decreased sea ice extent. However, West Antarctica cooled whereas the western Ross Sea showed no significant temperature trend. From the 17th Century onwards, this relationship changes. All three regions now show signs of warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea, but increasing in the western Ross Sea. Analysis of decadal to centennial-scale climate variability superimposed on the longer term trend reveal that periods characterised by opposing temperature trends between the Eastern and Western Ross Sea have occurred since the 3rd Century but are masked by longer-term trends. This pattern here is referred to as the Ross Sea Dipole, caused by a sensitive response of the region to dynamic interactions of the Southern Annual Mode and tropical forcings.

High-resolution, well-dated climate archives provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamic interactions of climate patterns relevant for future projections. Here, we present data from a new, annually dated ice core record from the eastern Ross Sea, named the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core. Comparison of this record with climate reanalysis data for the 1979–2012 interval shows that RICE reliably captures temperature and snow precipitation variability in the region. Trends over the past 2700 years in RICE are shown to be distinct from those in West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea captured by other ice cores. For most of this interval, the eastern Ross Sea was warming (or showing isotopic enrichment for other reasons), with increased snow accumulation and perhaps decreased sea ice concentration. However, West Antarctica cooled and the western Ross Sea showed no significant isotope temperature trend. This pattern here is referred to as the Ross Sea Dipole. Notably, during the Little Ice Age, West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea experienced colder than average temperatures, while the eastern Ross Sea underwent a period of warming or increased isotopic enrichment. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. All three regions show current warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea but increasing in the western Ross Sea. We interpret this pattern as reflecting an increase in sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea with perhaps the establishment of a modern Roosevelt Island polynya as a local moisture source for RICE.

We present results from a calculation of beyond the standard model (BSM) kaon mixing including data physical with light quark masses. We simulate $N_f=2+1$ QCD with Iwasaki gauge and domain wall fermion action on 8 ensembles, spanning 3 lattice spacings and pion masses from the physical value up to 430MeV. The ratio of the BSM to standard model (SM) matrix elements are extracted from the correlation functions and renormalised using the RI-SMOM Rome-Southampton method with non-exceptional kinematics. The results at the physical point continuum limit are found by performing a simultaneous continuum chiral extrapolation. In this work we gain consistency with our previous results and achieve a reduction in both the statistical and systematic error., Comment: The 36th Annual International Symposium on Lattice Field

We propose and apply a new approach to determining $|V_{us}|$ using dispersion relations with weight functions having poles at Euclidean (space-like) momentum which relate strange hadronic $\tau$ decay distributions to hadronic vacuum polarization functions (HVPs) obtained from lattice QCD. We show examples where spectral integral contributions from the region where experimental data have large errors or do not exist are strongly suppressed but accurate determinations of the relevant lattice HVP combinations remain possible. The resulting $|V_{us}|$ agrees well with determinations from $K$ physics and 3-family CKM unitarity. Advantages of this new approach over the conventional hadronic $\tau$ decay determination employing flavor-breaking sum rules are also discussed., Comment: 10 pages, 11 figures. References added and minor modifications. Accepted for publication in Physical Review Letters

Extreme weather and climate-related events can have pronounced environmental, economic and societal impacts, yet large natural variability within Earth’s constantly evolving climate system challenges the understanding of how these phenomena are changing. Increasingly powerful climate models have made it possible to study how certain factors, including anthropogenic forcings, have modified the likelihood and magnitude of extreme events. This study examines climate observations, reanalysis fields and model output to assess how weather extremes and climate-related events have changed. Part 1 investigates the detection and attribution of surface climate changes in relation to ozone depletion. Part 2 uses probabilistic event attribution and storyline frameworks to evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcings in altering the risk of extreme 1-day rainfall (RX1D) events for Christchurch, New Zealand in light of an unprecedented rainfall event that occurred in March 2014. Extremely large simulations of possible weather generated by the weather@home Australia-New Zealand (w@h ANZ) model found ozone forcings induced significant changes globally (< 3 hPa) in simulations of mean sea level pressure for 2013. A clear seasonal response was detected in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation that was consistent with prior studies. Ozone-induced changes to average monthly rainfall were not significant in New Zealand with large natural variability and the limitation of one-year simulations challenging attribution to this climate forcing. In Christchurch, model and observational data give evidence of human activity increasing the likelihood and magnitude (+17%) of RX1D events despite significant drying trends for mean total rainfall (-66%) in austral summer. For events similar to that observed during March 2014, the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) is estimated to be 27.4%. This result was robust across different spatial averaging areas though is sensitive to the rainfall threshold

The southern hemisphere’s atmospheric circulation experiences several annual and seasonal changes that are well documented and studied. The teleconnections between different variables are verified and used to explain variability in everyday climate and weather. Theories using physics are taught and published in textbooks to help us understand the connectivity and complexity of such a system. One theory is the meridional temperature gradient has a direct impact on the storm track. This thesis investigates that theory using the ERA-Interim dataset. The temperature gradient is a direct result of the temperature field, and depending on the latitudes you decide in which to constrain your gradient, the gradient experiences several changes. In the high latitudes, the southern annual oscillation created a two peaked pattern; the mid-latitudes display the expected seasonal mono peak pattern. The strong correlations seen in the high latitudes means that the gradient is driven by the patterns experienced at higher latitudes. The independence of behaviours displayed by the ocean sectors led to the research investigating the influences, looking at not just the hemisphere, but also each basin separately. The Pacific and Indian Ocean showed in several results to act independently from one another, in temperature gradients, wind field, and storm track position. The strong correlations between the temperature gradient and the wind field, as well as the storm track field show that the two are connected, as the theory suggests. If temperatures rise in the tropics, or decrease in the poles, then the temperature gradient will steepen. The pressure gradient force increases which pushes the thermal wind balance poleward, shifting the position of the westerlies. The area with the largest variation in the wind speed becomes the storm track, which would also shift poleward. Climatic factors such as the southern oscillation index, southern annular mode or Indian Ocean dipole show slight corre

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainfall feature in the Southern Hemisphere, and is a critical component of the climate of Southwest Pacific Island nations. The small size and isolated nature of these islands leaves them vulnerable to short and long term changes in the position of the SPCZ. Its location and strength is strongly modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), leading to large inter-annual and decadal variability in rainfall across the Southwest Pacific. Much of the analysis on the SPCZ has been restricted to the modern period, more specifically the “satellite era”, starting in 1979. Here, the representation of the SPCZ in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) product, which reconstructs the three-dimensional state of the atmosphere based only on surface observations is discussed. The performance of two versions of the 20CR (versions 2 and 2c) in the satellite era is tested via inter-comparison with other reanalysis and observational satellite products, before using 20CR version 2c (20CRv2c) to perform extended analysis back to the early twentieth century. This study demonstrates that 20CR performs well in the satellite era, and is considered suitable for extended analysis. It is established that extra data added in the SPCZ region between 20CR versions 2 and 2c has improved the representation of the SPCZ during 1908-1958. Well-established relationships between ENSO and the IPO with the SPCZ are shown to be present through the entire 1908-2011 period, although it is suggested that the physical link between the IPO and the SPCZ has changed between the first and second half of the twentieth century. Finally, evidence of a southward trend of the SPCZ over the past century is presented, potentially due to an expansion of the tropics as a result of climate change.

Extreme weather and climate-related events can have pronounced environmental, economic and societal impacts, yet large natural variability within Earth’s constantly evolving climate system challenges the understanding of how these phenomena are changing. Increasingly powerful climate models have made it possible to study how certain factors, including anthropogenic forcings, have modified the likelihood and magnitude of extreme events. This study examines climate observations, reanalysis fields and model output to assess how weather extremes and climate-related events have changed. Part 1 investigates the detection and attribution of surface climate changes in relation to ozone depletion. Part 2 uses probabilistic event attribution and storyline frameworks to evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcings in altering the risk of extreme 1-day rainfall (RX1D) events for Christchurch, New Zealand in light of an unprecedented rainfall event that occurred in March 2014. Extremely large simulations of possible weather generated by the weather@home Australia-New Zealand (w@h ANZ) model found ozone forcings induced significant changes globally (< 3 hPa) in simulations of mean sea level pressure for 2013. A clear seasonal response was detected in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation that was consistent with prior studies. Ozone-induced changes to average monthly rainfall were not significant in New Zealand with large natural variability and the limitation of one-year simulations challenging attribution to this climate forcing. In Christchurch, model and observational data give evidence of human activity increasing the likelihood and magnitude (+17%) of RX1D events despite significant drying trends for mean total rainfall (-66%) in austral summer. For events similar to that observed during March 2014, the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) is estimated to be 27.4%. This result was robust across different spatial averaging areas though is sensitive to the rainfall threshold

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainfall feature in the Southern Hemisphere, and is a critical component of the climate of Southwest Pacific Island nations. The small size and isolated nature of these islands leaves them vulnerable to short and long term changes in the position of the SPCZ. Its location and strength is strongly modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), leading to large inter-annual and decadal variability in rainfall across the Southwest Pacific. Much of the analysis on the SPCZ has been restricted to the modern period, more specifically the “satellite era”, starting in 1979. Here, the representation of the SPCZ in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) product, which reconstructs the three-dimensional state of the atmosphere based only on surface observations is discussed. The performance of two versions of the 20CR (versions 2 and 2c) in the satellite era is tested via inter-comparison with other reanalysis and observational satellite products, before using 20CR version 2c (20CRv2c) to perform extended analysis back to the early twentieth century. This study demonstrates that 20CR performs well in the satellite era, and is considered suitable for extended analysis. It is established that extra data added in the SPCZ region between 20CR versions 2 and 2c has improved the representation of the SPCZ during 1908-1958. Well-established relationships between ENSO and the IPO with the SPCZ are shown to be present through the entire 1908-2011 period, although it is suggested that the physical link between the IPO and the SPCZ has changed between the first and second half of the twentieth century. Finally, evidence of a southward trend of the SPCZ over the past century is presented, potentially due to an expansion of the tropics as a result of climate change.

Extreme weather and climate-related events can have pronounced environmental, economic and societal impacts, yet large natural variability within Earth’s constantly evolving climate system challenges the understanding of how these phenomena are changing. Increasingly powerful climate models have made it possible to study how certain factors, including anthropogenic forcings, have modified the likelihood and magnitude of extreme events. This study examines climate observations, reanalysis fields and model output to assess how weather extremes and climate-related events have changed. Part 1 investigates the detection and attribution of surface climate changes in relation to ozone depletion. Part 2 uses probabilistic event attribution and storyline frameworks to evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcings in altering the risk of extreme 1-day rainfall (RX1D) events for Christchurch, New Zealand in light of an unprecedented rainfall event that occurred in March 2014. Extremely large simulations of possible weather generated by the weather@home Australia-New Zealand (w@h ANZ) model found ozone forcings induced significant changes globally (< 3 hPa) in simulations of mean sea level pressure for 2013. A clear seasonal response was detected in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation that was consistent with prior studies. Ozone-induced changes to average monthly rainfall were not significant in New Zealand with large natural variability and the limitation of one-year simulations challenging attribution to this climate forcing. In Christchurch, model and observational data give evidence of human activity increasing the likelihood and magnitude (+17%) of RX1D events despite significant drying trends for mean total rainfall (-66%) in austral summer. For events similar to that observed during March 2014, the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) is estimated to be 27.4%. This result was robust across different spatial averaging areas though is sensitive to the rainfall threshold

The southern hemisphere’s atmospheric circulation experiences several annual and seasonal changes that are well documented and studied. The teleconnections between different variables are verified and used to explain variability in everyday climate and weather. Theories using physics are taught and published in textbooks to help us understand the connectivity and complexity of such a system. One theory is the meridional temperature gradient has a direct impact on the storm track. This thesis investigates that theory using the ERA-Interim dataset. The temperature gradient is a direct result of the temperature field, and depending on the latitudes you decide in which to constrain your gradient, the gradient experiences several changes. In the high latitudes, the southern annual oscillation created a two peaked pattern; the mid-latitudes display the expected seasonal mono peak pattern. The strong correlations seen in the high latitudes means that the gradient is driven by the patterns experienced at higher latitudes. The independence of behaviours displayed by the ocean sectors led to the research investigating the influences, looking at not just the hemisphere, but also each basin separately. The Pacific and Indian Ocean showed in several results to act independently from one another, in temperature gradients, wind field, and storm track position. The strong correlations between the temperature gradient and the wind field, as well as the storm track field show that the two are connected, as the theory suggests. If temperatures rise in the tropics, or decrease in the poles, then the temperature gradient will steepen. The pressure gradient force increases which pushes the thermal wind balance poleward, shifting the position of the westerlies. The area with the largest variation in the wind speed becomes the storm track, which would also shift poleward. Climatic factors such as the southern oscillation index, southern annular mode or Indian Ocean dipole show slight corre

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainfall feature in the Southern Hemisphere, and is a critical component of the climate of Southwest Pacific Island nations. The small size and isolated nature of these islands leaves them vulnerable to short and long term changes in the position of the SPCZ. Its location and strength is strongly modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), leading to large inter-annual and decadal variability in rainfall across the Southwest Pacific. Much of the analysis on the SPCZ has been restricted to the modern period, more specifically the “satellite era”, starting in 1979. Here, the representation of the SPCZ in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) product, which reconstructs the three-dimensional state of the atmosphere based only on surface observations is discussed. The performance of two versions of the 20CR (versions 2 and 2c) in the satellite era is tested via inter-comparison with other reanalysis and observational satellite products, before using 20CR version 2c (20CRv2c) to perform extended analysis back to the early twentieth century. This study demonstrates that 20CR performs well in the satellite era, and is considered suitable for extended analysis. It is established that extra data added in the SPCZ region between 20CR versions 2 and 2c has improved the representation of the SPCZ during 1908-1958. Well-established relationships between ENSO and the IPO with the SPCZ are shown to be present through the entire 1908-2011 period, although it is suggested that the physical link between the IPO and the SPCZ has changed between the first and second half of the twentieth century. Finally, evidence of a southward trend of the SPCZ over the past century is presented, potentially due to an expansion of the tropics as a result of climate change.

The southern hemisphere’s atmospheric circulation experiences several annual and seasonal changes that are well documented and studied. The teleconnections between different variables are verified and used to explain variability in everyday climate and weather. Theories using physics are taught and published in textbooks to help us understand the connectivity and complexity of such a system. One theory is the meridional temperature gradient has a direct impact on the storm track. This thesis investigates that theory using the ERA-Interim dataset. The temperature gradient is a direct result of the temperature field, and depending on the latitudes you decide in which to constrain your gradient, the gradient experiences several changes. In the high latitudes, the southern annual oscillation created a two peaked pattern; the mid-latitudes display the expected seasonal mono peak pattern. The strong correlations seen in the high latitudes means that the gradient is driven by the patterns experienced at higher latitudes. The independence of behaviours displayed by the ocean sectors led to the research investigating the influences, looking at not just the hemisphere, but also each basin separately. The Pacific and Indian Ocean showed in several results to act independently from one another, in temperature gradients, wind field, and storm track position. The strong correlations between the temperature gradient and the wind field, as well as the storm track field show that the two are connected, as the theory suggests. If temperatures rise in the tropics, or decrease in the poles, then the temperature gradient will steepen. The pressure gradient force increases which pushes the thermal wind balance poleward, shifting the position of the westerlies. The area with the largest variation in the wind speed becomes the storm track, which would also shift poleward. Climatic factors such as the southern oscillation index, southern annular mode or Indian Ocean dipole show slight corre

Extreme weather and climate-related events can have pronounced environmental, economic and societal impacts, yet large natural variability within Earth’s constantly evolving climate system challenges the understanding of how these phenomena are changing. Increasingly powerful climate models have made it possible to study how certain factors, including anthropogenic forcings, have modified the likelihood and magnitude of extreme events. This study examines climate observations, reanalysis fields and model output to assess how weather extremes and climate-related events have changed. Part 1 investigates the detection and attribution of surface climate changes in relation to ozone depletion. Part 2 uses probabilistic event attribution and storyline frameworks to evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcings in altering the risk of extreme 1-day rainfall (RX1D) events for Christchurch, New Zealand in light of an unprecedented rainfall event that occurred in March 2014. Extremely large simulations of possible weather generated by the weather@home Australia-New Zealand (w@h ANZ) model found ozone forcings induced significant changes globally (< 3 hPa) in simulations of mean sea level pressure for 2013. A clear seasonal response was detected in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation that was consistent with prior studies. Ozone-induced changes to average monthly rainfall were not significant in New Zealand with large natural variability and the limitation of one-year simulations challenging attribution to this climate forcing. In Christchurch, model and observational data give evidence of human activity increasing the likelihood and magnitude (+17%) of RX1D events despite significant drying trends for mean total rainfall (-66%) in austral summer. For events similar to that observed during March 2014, the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) is estimated to be 27.4%. This result was robust across different spatial averaging areas though is sensitive to the rainfall threshold

The southern hemisphere’s atmospheric circulation experiences several annual and seasonal changes that are well documented and studied. The teleconnections between different variables are verified and used to explain variability in everyday climate and weather. Theories using physics are taught and published in textbooks to help us understand the connectivity and complexity of such a system. One theory is the meridional temperature gradient has a direct impact on the storm track. This thesis investigates that theory using the ERA-Interim dataset. The temperature gradient is a direct result of the temperature field, and depending on the latitudes you decide in which to constrain your gradient, the gradient experiences several changes. In the high latitudes, the southern annual oscillation created a two peaked pattern; the mid-latitudes display the expected seasonal mono peak pattern. The strong correlations seen in the high latitudes means that the gradient is driven by the patterns experienced at higher latitudes. The independence of behaviours displayed by the ocean sectors led to the research investigating the influences, looking at not just the hemisphere, but also each basin separately. The Pacific and Indian Ocean showed in several results to act independently from one another, in temperature gradients, wind field, and storm track position. The strong correlations between the temperature gradient and the wind field, as well as the storm track field show that the two are connected, as the theory suggests. If temperatures rise in the tropics, or decrease in the poles, then the temperature gradient will steepen. The pressure gradient force increases which pushes the thermal wind balance poleward, shifting the position of the westerlies. The area with the largest variation in the wind speed becomes the storm track, which would also shift poleward. Climatic factors such as the southern oscillation index, southern annular mode or Indian Ocean dipole show slight corre

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainfall feature in the Southern Hemisphere, and is a critical component of the climate of Southwest Pacific Island nations. The small size and isolated nature of these islands leaves them vulnerable to short and long term changes in the position of the SPCZ. Its location and strength is strongly modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), leading to large inter-annual and decadal variability in rainfall across the Southwest Pacific. Much of the analysis on the SPCZ has been restricted to the modern period, more specifically the “satellite era”, starting in 1979. Here, the representation of the SPCZ in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) product, which reconstructs the three-dimensional state of the atmosphere based only on surface observations is discussed. The performance of two versions of the 20CR (versions 2 and 2c) in the satellite era is tested via inter-comparison with other reanalysis and observational satellite products, before using 20CR version 2c (20CRv2c) to perform extended analysis back to the early twentieth century. This study demonstrates that 20CR performs well in the satellite era, and is considered suitable for extended analysis. It is established that extra data added in the SPCZ region between 20CR versions 2 and 2c has improved the representation of the SPCZ during 1908-1958. Well-established relationships between ENSO and the IPO with the SPCZ are shown to be present through the entire 1908-2011 period, although it is suggested that the physical link between the IPO and the SPCZ has changed between the first and second half of the twentieth century. Finally, evidence of a southward trend of the SPCZ over the past century is presented, potentially due to an expansion of the tropics as a result of climate change.