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Microbial evolution is driven by rapid changes in gene content mediated by horizontal gene transfer (HGT). While mobile genetic elements (MGEs) are important drivers of gene flux, the nanobiome-the zoo of Darwinian replicators that depend on microbial hosts-remains poorly characterised. New approaches are necessary to increase our understanding beyond MGEs shaping individual populations, towards their impacts on complex microbial communities. A bioinformatic pipeline (xenoseq) was developed to cross-compare metagenomic samples from microbial consortia evolving in parallel, aimed at identifying MGE dissemination, which was applied to compost communities which underwent periodic mixing of MGEs. We show that xenoseq can distinguish movement of MGEs from demographic changes in community composition that otherwise confounds identification, and furthermore demonstrate the discovery of various unexpected entities. Of particular interest was a nanobacterium of the candidate phylum radiation (CPR) which is closely related to a species identified in groundwater ecosystems (Candidatus Saccharibacterium), and appears to have a parasitic lifestyle. We also highlight another prolific mobile element, a 313 kb plasmid hosted by a Cellvibrio lineage. The host was predicted to be capable of nitrogen fixation, and acquisition of the plasmid coincides with increased ammonia production. Taken together, our data show that new experimental strategies combined with bioinformatic analyses of metagenomic data stand to provide insight into the nanobiome as a driver of microbial community evolution.

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

Eukaryotes and prokaryotes have distinct genome architectures, with marked differences in genome size, the ratio of coding/non-coding DNA, and the abundance of transposable elements (TEs). As TEs replicate independently of their hosts, the proliferation of TEs is thought to have driven genome expansion in eukaryotes. However, prokaryotes also have TEs in intergenic spaces, so why do prokaryotes have small, streamlined genomes? Using an in silico model describing the genomes of single-celled asexual organisms that coevolve with TEs, we show that TEs acquired from the environment by horizontal gene transfer can promote the evolution of genome streamlining. The process depends on local interactions and is underpinned by rock-paper-scissors dynamics in which populations of cells with streamlined genomes beat TEs, which beat non-streamlined genomes, which beat streamlined genomes, in continuous and repeating cycles. Streamlining is maladaptive to individual cells, but improves lineage viability by hindering the proliferation of TEs. Streamlining does not evolve in sexually reproducing populations because recombination partially frees TEs from the deleterious effects they cause. This article is part of the theme issue 'The secret lives of microbial mobile genetic elements'.

Predicting evolutionary change poses numerous challenges. Here we take advantage of the model bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens in which the genotype-to-phenotype map determining evolution of the adaptive ‘wrinkly spreader’ (WS) type is known. We present mathematical descriptions of three necessary regulatory pathways and use these to predict both the rate at which each mutational route is used and the expected mutational targets. To test predictions, mutation rates and targets were determined for each pathway. Unanticipated mutational hotspots caused experimental observations to depart from predictions but additional data led to refined models. A mismatch was observed between the spectra of WS-causing mutations obtained with and without selection due to low fitness of previously undetected WS-causing mutations. Our findings contribute toward the development of mechanistic models for forecasting evolution, highlight current limitations, and draw attention to challenges in predicting locus-specific mutational biases and fitness effects.

Pleurobranchaea maculata is a rarely studied species of the Heterobranchia found throughout the south and western Pacific-and recently recorded in Argentina-whose population genetic structure is unknown. Interest in the species was sparked in New Zealand following a series of dog deaths caused by ingestions of slugs containing high levels of the neurotoxin tetrodotoxin. Here we describe the genetic structure and demographic history of P. maculata populations from five principle locations in New Zealand based on extensive analyses of 12 microsatellite loci and the COI and CytB regions of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). Microsatellite data showed significant differentiation between northern and southern populations with population structure being associated with previously described regional variations in tetrodotoxin concentrations. However, mtDNA sequence data did not support such structure, revealing a star-shaped haplotype network with estimates of expansion time suggesting a population expansion in the Pleistocene era. Inclusion of publicly available mtDNA sequence sea slugs from Argentina did not alter the star-shaped network. We interpret our data as indicative of a single founding population that fragmented following geographical changes that brought about the present day north-south divide in New Zealand waters. Lack of evidence of cryptic species supports data indicating that differences in toxicity of individuals among regions are a consequence of differences in diet.

Model microbial systems provide opportunity to understand the genetic bases of ecological traits, their evolution, regulation and fitness contributions. Experimental populations of Pseudomonas fluorescens rapidly diverge in spatially structured microcosms producing a range of surface-colonising forms. Despite divergent molecular routes, wrinkly spreader (WS) niche specialist types overproduce a cellulosic polymer allowing mat formation at the air–liquid interface and access to oxygen. Given the range of ways by which cells can form mats, such phenotypic parallelism is unexpected. We deleted the cellulose-encoding genes from the ancestral genotype and asked whether this mutant could converge on an alternate phenotypic solution. Two new traits were discovered. The first involved an exopolysaccharide encoded by pgaABCD that functions as cell–cell glue similar to cellulose. The second involved an activator of an amidase (nlpD) that when defective causes cell chaining. Both types form mats, but were less fit in competition with cellulose-based WS types. Surprisingly, diguanylate cyclases linked to cellulose overexpression underpinned evolution of poly-beta-1,6-N-acetyl-d-glucosamine (PGA)-based mats. This prompted genetic analyses of the relationships between the diguanylate cyclases WspR, AwsR and MwsR, and both cellulose and PGA. Our results suggest that c-di-GMP regulatory networks may have been shaped by evolution to accommodate loss and gain of exopolysaccharide modules facilitating adaptation to new environments.

Over the last two decades interest in direct realisation of evolutionary process and the possibilities presented by real time evolution experiments with microbes have escalated. Long-term selection experiments with bacteria have made increasingly transparent the process of evolution by natural selection. In this short article we consider what next for the field and do so by highlighting two areas of interest: the genotype-to-phenotype map and the constraints it imposes on evolution, and studies on major evolutionary transitions and in particular the importance of selection working over more than one timescale. The latter we discuss in light of new technologies that allow imposition of Darwinian properties on populations and communities and how this allows exploration of new avenues of research. We conclude by commenting on microbial communities and the operation of evolutionary processes that are likely intrinsic — and specific — to communities.

Reproduction is a defining feature of living systems. To reproduce, aggregates of biological units (e.g., multicellular organisms or colonial bacteria) must fragment into smaller parts. Fragmentation modes in nature range from binary fission in bacteria to collective-level fragmentation and the production of unicellular propagules in multicellular organisms. Despite this apparent ubiquity, the adaptive significance of fragmentation modes has received little attention. Here, we develop a model in which groups arise from the division of single cells that do not separate but stay together until the moment of group fragmentation. We allow for all possible fragmentation patterns and calculate the population growth rate of each associated life cycle. Fragmentation modes that maximise growth rate comprise a restrictive set of patterns that include production of unicellular propagules and division into two similar size groups. Life cycles marked by single-cell bottlenecks maximise population growth rate under a wide range of conditions. This surprising result offers a new evolutionary explanation for the widespread occurrence of this mode of reproduction. All in all, our model provides a framework for exploring the adaptive significance of fragmentation modes and their associated life cycles.

The importance of microbial communities (MCs) cannot be overstated. MCs underpin the biogeochemical cycles of the earth’s soil, oceans and the atmosphere, and perform ecosystem functions that impact plants, animals and humans. Yet our ability to predict and manage the function of these highly complex, dynamically changing communities is limited. Building predictive models that link MC composition to function is a key emerging challenge in microbial ecology. Here, we argue that addressing this challenge requires close coordination of experimental data collection and method development with mathematical model building. We discuss specific examples where model–experiment integration has already resulted in important insights into MC function and structure. We also highlight key research questions that still demand better integration of experiments and models. We argue that such integration is needed to achieve significant progress in our understanding of MC dynamics and function, and we make specific practical suggestions as to how this could be achieved., United States. Army Research Office (W911NF-14-1-0445)

Determining the phenotype and genotype of single cells is central to understand microbial evolution. DNA sequencing technologies allow the detection of mutants at high resolution, but similar approaches for phenotypic analyses are still lacking. We show that a drop-based millifluidic system enables the detection of heritable phenotypic changes in evolving bacterial populations. At time intervals, cells were sampled and individually compartmentalized in 100 nL drops. Growth through 15 generations was monitored using a fluorescent protein reporter. Amplification of heritable changes-via growth-over multiple generations yields phenotypically distinct clusters reflecting variation relevant for evolution. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, we follow the evolution of Escherichia coli populations during 30 days of starvation. Phenotypic diversity was observed to rapidly increase upon starvation with the emergence of heritable phenotypes. Mutations corresponding to each phenotypic class were identified by DNA sequencing. This scalable lineage-tracking technology opens the door to large-scale phenotyping methods with special utility for microbiology and microbial population biology.

The importance of microbial communities (MCs) cannot be overstated. MCs underpin the biogeochemical cycles of the earth's soil, oceans and the atmosphere, and perform ecosystem functions that impact plants, animals and humans. Yet our ability to predict and manage the function of these highly complex, dynamically changing communities is limited. Building predictive models that link MC composition to function is a key emerging challenge in microbial ecology. Here, we argue that addressing this challenge requires close coordination of experimental data collection and method development with mathematical model building. We discuss specific examples where model-experiment integration has already resulted in important insights into MC function and structure. We also highlight key research questions that still demand better integration of experiments and models. We argue that such integration is needed to achieve significant progress in our understanding of MC dynamics and function, and we make specific practical suggestions as to how this could be achieved.

Replicate populations of natural and experimental organisms often show evidence of parallel genetic evolution, but the causes are unclear. The wrinkly spreader morph of Pseudomonas fluorescens arises repeatedly during experimental evolution. The mutational causes reside exclusively within three pathways. By eliminating these, 13 new mutational pathways were discovered with the newly arising WS types having fitnesses similar to those arising from the commonly passaged routes. Our findings show that parallel genetic evolution is strongly biased by constraints and we reveal the genetic bases. From such knowledge, and in instances where new phenotypes arise via gene activation, we suggest a set of principles: evolution proceeds firstly via pathways subject to negative regulation, then via promoter mutations and gene fusions, and finally via activation by intragenic gain-of-function mutations. These principles inform evolutionary forecasting and have relevance to interpreting the diverse array of mutations associated with clinically identical instances of disease in humans.

Phenotype switching is commonly observed in nature. This prevalence has allowed the elucidation of a number of underlying molecular mechanisms. However, little is known about how phenotypic switches arise and function in their early evolutionary stages. The first opportunity to provide empirical insight was delivered by an experiment in which populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 evolved, de novo, the ability to switch between two colony phenotypes. Here we unravel the molecular mechanism behind colony switching, revealing how a single nucleotide change in a gene enmeshed in central metabolism (carB) generates such a striking phenotype. We show that colony switching is underpinned by ON/OFF expression of capsules consisting of a colanic acid-like polymer. We use molecular genetics, biochemical analyses, and experimental evolution to establish that capsule switching results from perturbation of the pyrimidine biosynthetic pathway. Of central importance is a bifurcation point at which uracil triphosphate is partitioned towards either nucleotide metabolism or polymer production. This bifurcation marks a cell-fate decision point whereby cells with relatively high pyrimidine levels favour nucleotide metabolism (capsule OFF), while cells with lower pyrimidine levels divert resources towards polymer biosynthesis (capsule ON). This decision point is present and functional in the wild-type strain. Finally, we present a simple mathematical model demonstrating that the molecular components of the decision point are capable of producing switching. Despite its simple mutational cause, the connection between genotype and phenotype is complex and multidimensional, offering a rare glimpse of how noise in regulatory networks can provide opportunity for evolution.

A continuously mixed series of microbial communities inhabits various points of the respiratory tract, with community composition determined by distance from colonization sources, colonization rates, and extinction rates. Ecology and evolution theory developed in the context of biogeography is relevant to clinical microbiology and could reframe the interpretation of recent studies comparing communities from lung explant samples, sputum samples, and oropharyngeal swabs. We propose an island biogeography model of the microbial communities inhabiting different niches in human airways. Island biogeography as applied to communities separated by time and space is a useful parallel for exploring microbial colonization of healthy and diseased lungs, with the potential to inform our understanding of microbial community dynamics and the relevance of microbes detected in different sample types. In this perspective, we focus on the intermixed microbial communities inhabiting different regions of the airways of patients with cystic fibrosis.

The plasmid pQBR103 was found within Pseudomonas populations colonizing the leaf and root surfaces of sugar beet plants growing at Wytham, Oxfordshire, UK. At 425 kb it is the largest self-transmissible plasmid yet sequenced from the phytosphere. It is known to enhance the competitive fitness of its host, and parts of the plasmid are known to be actively transcribed in the plant environment. Analysis of the complete sequence of this plasmid predicts a coding sequence (CDS)-rich genome containing 478 CDSs and an exceptional degree of genetic novelty; 80% of predicted coding sequences cannot be ascribed a function and 60% are orphans. Of those to which function could be assigned, 40% bore greatest similarity to sequences from Pseudomonas spp, and the majority of the remainder showed similarity to other -proteobacterial genera and plasmids. pQBR103 has identifiable regions presumed responsible for replication and partitioning, but despite being tra+ lacks the full complement of any previously described conjugal transfer functions. The DNA sequence provided few insights into the functional significance of plant-induced transcriptional regions, but suggests that 14% of CDSs may be expressed (11 CDSs with functional annotation and 54 without), further highlighting the ecological importance of these novel CDSs. Comparative analysis indicates that pQBR103 shares significant regions of sequence with other plasmids isolated from sugar beet plants grown at the same geographic location. These plasmid sequences indicate there is more novelty in the mobile DNA pool accessible to phytosphere pseudomonas than is currently appreciated or understood.

The ability to monitor the spatial and temporal distribution of signals in complex environments is necessary for an understanding of the function of bacteria in the wild. To this end, an existing recombinase-based transcriptional reporter strategy (recombinase-based in vivo expression technology, RIVET) has been extended and applied to the plant-colonizing bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25. Central to the project was a rhizosphere-inducible locus, rhi14, which functional analyses show is hutT, a histidine-inducible gene that is required for histidine utilization. A transcriptional fusion between hutT and a promoterless site-specific recombinase (tnpRmut168) results in excision of a chromosomally integrated tetracycline-resistance cassette in a histidine-dependent manner. The dose- and time-responsiveness of the promoterless recombinase to histidine closely mirrored the histidine responsiveness of an identical hutT fusion to promoterless lacZ. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the strategy, the activity of hutT was monitored on sugar beet seedlings. Low levels of transcriptional activity were detected in the phyllosphere, rhizosphere and in plant extract, but not in vermiculite devoid of seedlings. The histidine concentration in the rhizosphere was estimated to be 0.6 µg ml–1. The ecological significance of the hut locus was examined by competing a hutT deletion mutant against the wild-type during colonization of sugar beet seedlings. No impact on competitive fitness was detected, suggesting that the ability to utilize plant-derived histidine is not essential for bacterial colonization.

The International Pseudomonas aeruginosa Consortium is sequencing over 1000 genomes and building an analysis pipeline for the study of Pseudomonas genome evolution, antibiotic resistance and virulence genes. Metadata, including genomic and phenotypic data for each isolate of the collection, are available through the International Pseudomonas Consortium Database (http://ipcd.ibis.ulaval.ca/). Here, we present our strategy and the results that emerged from the analysis of the first 389 genomes. With as yet unmatched resolution, our results confirm that P. aeruginosa strains can be divided into three major groups that are further divided into subgroups, some not previously reported in the literature. We also provide the first snapshot of P. aeruginosa strain diversity with respect to antibiotic resistance. Our approach will allow us to draw potential links between environmental strains and those implicated in human and animal infections, understand how patients become infected and how the infection evolves over time as well as identify prognostic markers for better evidence-based decisions on patient care.

The International Pseudomonas aeruginosa Consortium is sequencing over 1000 genomes and building an analysis pipeline for the study of Pseudomonas genome evolution, antibiotic resistance and virulence genes. Metadata, including genomic and phenotypic data for each isolate of the collection, are available through the International Pseudomonas Consortium Database (http://ipcd.ibis.ulaval.ca/). Here, we present our strategy and the results that emerged from the analysis of the first 389 genomes. With as yet unmatched resolution, our results confirm that P. aeruginosa strains can be divided into three major groups that are further divided into subgroups, some not previously reported in the literature. We also provide the first snapshot of P. aeruginosa strain diversity with respect to antibiotic resistance. Our approach will allow us to draw potential links between environmental strains and those implicated in human and animal infections, understand how patients become infected and how the infection evolves over time as well as identify prognostic markers for better evidence-based decisions on patient care.

The International Pseudomonas aeruginosa Consortium is sequencing over 1000 genomes and building an analysis pipeline for the study of Pseudomonas genome evolution, antibiotic resistance and virulence genes. Metadata, including genomic and phenotypic data for each isolate of the collection, are available through the International Pseudomonas Consortium Database (http://ipcd.ibis.ulaval.ca/). Here, we present our strategy and the results that emerged from the analysis of the first 389 genomes. With as yet unmatched resolution, our results confirm that P. aeruginosa strains can be divided into three major groups that are further divided into subgroups, some not previously reported in the literature. We also provide the first snapshot of P. aeruginosa strain diversity with respect to antibiotic resistance. Our approach will allow us to draw potential links between environmental strains and those implicated in human and animal infections, understand how patients become infected and how the infection evolves over time as well as identify prognostic markers for better evidence-based decisions on patient care.

The International Pseudomonas aeruginosa Consortium is sequencing over 1000 genomes and building an analysis pipeline for the study of Pseudomonas genome evolution, antibiotic resistance and virulence genes. Metadata, including genomic and phenotypic data for each isolate of the collection, are available through the International Pseudomonas Consortium Database (http://ipcd.ibis.ulaval.ca/). Here, we present our strategy and the results that emerged from the analysis of the first 389 genomes. With as yet unmatched resolution, our results confirm that P. aeruginosa strains can be divided into three major groups that are further divided into subgroups, some not previously reported in the literature. We also provide the first snapshot of P. aeruginosa strain diversity with respect to antibiotic resistance. Our approach will allow us to draw potential links between environmental strains and those implicated in human and animal infections, understand how patients become infected and how the infection evolves over time as well as identify prognostic markers for better evidence-based decisions on patient care.