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We sought to verify the reliability of machine learning (ML) in developing diabetes prediction models by utilizing big data. To this end, we compared the reliability of gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) and logistic regression (LR) models using data obtained from the Kokuho-database of the Osaka prefecture, Japan. To develop the models, we focused on 16 predictors from health checkup data from April 2013 to December 2014. A total of 277,651 eligible participants were studied. The prediction models were developed using a light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), which is an effective GBDT implementation algorithm, and LR. Their reliabilities were measured based on expected calibration error (ECE), negative log-likelihood (Logloss), and reliability diagrams. Similarly, their classification accuracies were measured in the area under the curve (AUC). We further analyzed their reliabilities while changing the sample size for training. Among the 277,651 participants, 15,900 (7978 males and 7922 females) were newly diagnosed with diabetes within 3 years. LightGBM (LR) achieved an ECE of 0.0018 ± 0.00033 (0.0048 ± 0.00058), a Logloss of 0.167 ± 0.00062 (0.172 ± 0.00090), and an AUC of 0.844 ± 0.0025 (0.826 ± 0.0035). From sample size analysis, the reliability of LightGBM became higher than LR when the sample size increased more than 104. Thus, we confirmed that GBDT provides a more reliable model than that of LR in the development of diabetes prediction models using big data. ML could potentially produce a highly reliable diabetes prediction model, a helpful tool for improving lifestyle and preventing diabetes.

We sought to verify the reliability of machine learning (ML) in developing diabetes prediction models by utilizing big data. To this end, we compared the reliability of gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) and logistic regression (LR) models using data obtained from the Kokuho-database of the Osaka prefecture, Japan. To develop the models, we focused on 16 predictors from health checkup data from April 2013 to December 2014. A total of 277,651 eligible participants were studied. The prediction models were developed using a light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), which is an effective GBDT implementation algorithm, and LR. Their reliabilities were measured based on expected calibration error (ECE), negative log-likelihood (Logloss), and reliability diagrams. Similarly, their classification accuracies were measured in the area under the curve (AUC). We further analyzed their reliabilities while changing the sample size for training. Among the 277,651 participants, 15,900 (7978 males and 7922 females) were newly diagnosed with diabetes within 3 years. LightGBM (LR) achieved an ECE of 0.0018 ± 0.00033 (0.0048 ± 0.00058), a Logloss of 0.167 ± 0.00062 (0.172 ± 0.00090), and an AUC of 0.844 ± 0.0025 (0.826 ± 0.0035). From sample size analysis, the reliability of LightGBM became higher than LR when the sample size increased more than 104. Thus, we confirmed that GBDT provides a more reliable model than that of LR in the development of diabetes prediction models using big data. ML could potentially produce a highly reliable diabetes prediction model, a helpful tool for improving lifestyle and preventing diabetes.

A novel application of machine-learning (ML) based image processing algorithms is proposed to analyze an all-sky map (ASM) obtained using the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. An attempt was made to simulate a one-year ASM from a short-exposure ASM generated from one-week observation by applying three ML based image processing algorithms: dictionary learning, U-net, and Noise2Noise. Although the inference based on ML is less clear compared to standard likelihood analysis, the quality of the ASM was generally improved. In particular, the complicated diffuse emission associated with the galactic plane was successfully reproduced only from one-week observation data to mimic a ground truth (GT) generated from a one-year observation. Such ML algorithms can be implemented relatively easily to provide sharper images without various assumptions of emission models. In contrast, large deviations between simulated ML maps and GT map were found, which are attributed to the significant temporal variability of blazar-type active galactic nuclei (AGNs) over a year. Thus, the proposed ML methods are viable not only to improve the image quality of an ASM, but also to detect variable sources, such as AGNs, algorithmically, i.e., without human bias. Moreover, we argue that this approach is widely applicable to ASMs obtained by various other missions; thus, it has the potential to examine giant structures and transient events, both of which are rarely found in pointing observations., Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

Causal relations among many statistical variables have been assessed using a Linear non-Gaussian Acyclic Model (LiNGAM). Using access to large amounts of health checkup data from Osaka prefecture obtained during the six fiscal years of years 2012–2017, we applied the DirectLiNGAM algorithm as a trial to extract causal relations among health indices for age groups and genders. Results show that LiNGAM yields interesting and reasonable results, suggesting causal relations and correlation among the statistical indices used for these analyses.