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Oceans cover more than 70 percent of the Earth's surface making it difficult and costly to deploy modern seismological instruments here. The rapidly expanding global network of submarine telecom cables offers tremendous possibilities for seismological monitoring using laser light. Recent pioneer studies have demonstrated earthquake detection using lasers in onland and submarine fiber optic cables. However, permanent strain at the seafloor has never before been measured directly as it happens. With this aim, we deployed a dedicated 6-km-long fiber optic strain cable, offshore Catania Sicily, in 2000 m water depth, and connected it to a 29-km long electro-optical cable for science use. We report here that deformation of the cable equivalent to a total elongation of 2.5 cm was observed over a 21-month period (from Oct. 2020 to Jul. 2022). Brillouin laser reflectometry observations over the first 10 months indicate significant strain (+25 to +40 microstrain) at two locations where the cable crosses an active strike-slip fault on the seafloor, with most of the change occurring between 19 and 21 Nov. 2020. The cause of the strain could be fault slip or seabottom currents. During the following 11 months, the strain amplitude increased to +45 to +55 microstrain, affecting a longer portion of the cable up to 500 m to either side of the first fault crossing. A sandbag experiment performed on the distal portion of the cable (3.2–6.0 km) starting Sept. 2021 demonstrates how the fiber optic cable deforms in response to an applied load and how the deformation signal partially dissipates over time due to the elastic properties of the cable. These preliminary results are highly encouraging for the use of BOTDR (Brillouin Optical Time Domain Reflectometry) laser reflectometry as a technique to detect strain at the seafloor in near real time and to monitor the structural health of submarine cables.

The INGV is the operational center for earthquake monitoring in Italy, https://www.ingv.it/en/monitoraggio-e-infrastrutture/sorveglianza/servizio-di-sorveglianza-sismica, it operates the Italian National Seismic Network and other networks at different scales and is a primary node of EIDA for archiving and distributing seismic recordings. INGV provides earthquake information to the Department of Civil Protection and to the public. In the frame of the FOCUS (Fiber Optic Cable Use for seafloor studies of earthquake hazard and deformation) project, https://www.geo-ocean.fr/Recherche/Projets-de-Recherche/ERC-FOCUS, we deployed a temporary seismic network, FXLand (1J), for a passive seismological experiment to record regional seismicity and teleseismic events. This experiment aims to improve the detection of seismicity; the accuracy of earthquake locations, and to define the crustal structure of the region. The seismicity in the Ionian area is possibly the result of two types of tectonic activity at different depths: a gently NW dipping subduction interface of the Calabrian subduction zone, and the strike-slip fault systems in the Ionian Sea, well expressed in the morpho-bathymetry and observed in previous seismic profiles.

Incels are involuntarily celibate men who believe that they are unable to form romantic relationships as a result of factors outside of their control. The phenomenon has grown in recent years in terms of platform membership and has attracted increasing media attention. To date, much of the research on incels has relied on content analysis of incel forums. There is a dearth of scholarship which relies on firsthand accounts. This research is among the first studies to step into this gap. This research comprises 12 interviews with both current and former self-identified incels, investigating why some lonely men choose to identify as incels. Interviewees were asked to share their “blackpilling stories”, and invited to discuss experiences which they felt played an important role, so that common features could be identified. This research identifies three key points in an individual’s journey to “taking the blackpill”, which will be of benefit to those designing interventions targeted at incels. First, it is found many incels are socially isolated. A number of factors are found to contribute to this isolation, including being “off-time”, neurodivergence, and a belief that they are unfairly persecuted for their beliefs. The concept of the “Lost Boy” is introduced to describe young men who find themselves in this situation, and who may be at particular risk of radicalisation, as they seek answers to various complex questions at an especially vulnerable stage of their lives. Secondly, it is found that in the absence of supportive networks, Lost Boys resort to the internet for advice and guidance. At this point, it is likely they will be exposed to content that could reasonably be described as ‘Red Pilled’ – an ideology that is arguably less extreme than the blackpill, but supported by the same undergirding logic. However, a number of factors prevent the Red Pill from offering satisfactory answers or solutions to many of these ‘seekers’, and the typical trajectory observed is

Tsunamis constitute a significant hazard for European coastal populations, and the impact of tsunami events worldwide can extend well beyond the coastal regions directly affected. Understanding the complex mechanisms of tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation, as well as managing the tsunami risk, requires multidisciplinary research and infrastructures that cross national boundaries. Recent decades have seen both great advances in tsunami science and consolidation of the European tsunami research community. A recurring theme has been the need for a sustainable platform for coordinated tsunami community activities and a hub for tsunami services. Following about three years of preparation, in July 2021, the European tsunami community attained the status of Candidate Thematic Core Service (cTCS) within the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) Research Infrastructure. Within a transition period of three years, the Tsunami candidate TCS is anticipated to develop into a fully operational EPOS TCS. We here outline the path taken to reach this point, and the envisaged form of the future EPOS TCS Tsunami. Our cTCS is planned to be organised within four thematic pillars: (1) Support to Tsunami Service Providers, (2) Tsunami Data, (3) Numerical Models, and (4) Hazard and Risk Products. We outline how identified needs in tsunami science and tsunami risk mitigation will be addressed within this structure and how participation within EPOS will become an integration point for community development.

How tectonic plates slip slowly and episodically along their boundaries, is a major, open question in earthquake science. Here, we use offshore in-situ sediment pore-pressure acquired in the proximity of the active offshore Main Marmara Fault and onshore geodetic time-series data set from a single GPS station to demonstrate the pore-pressure/deformation coupling during a 10-month slow-slip event. We show that pore pressure fluctuations are the expression of hydro-mechanical process affecting the deep seismogenic zone and indicate that small disturbances in geodetic data may have important meaning in terms of transient deformations. These results have major implications in understanding the spatial impact of slow-slip processes and their role in earthquake cycles. We demonstrate that piezometers measuring along a transform fault can help define the time scale regulating the coupling between slow-slip events and earthquake nucleation process.

Tsunamis constitute a significant hazard for European coastal populations, and the impact of tsunami events worldwide can extend well beyond the coastal regions directly affected. Understanding the complex mechanisms of tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation, as well as managing the tsunami risk, requires multidisciplinary research and infrastructures that cross national boundaries. Recent decades have seen both great advances in tsunami science and consolidation of the European tsunami research community. A recurring theme has been the need for a sustainable platform for coordinated tsunami community activities and a hub for tsunami services. Following about three years of preparation, in July 2021, the European tsunami community attained the status of Candidate Thematic Core Service (cTCS) within the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) Research Infrastructure. Within a transition period of three years, the Tsunami candidate TCS is anticipated to develop into a fully operational EPOS TCS. We here outline the path taken to reach this point, and the envisaged form of the future EPOS TCS Tsunami. Our cTCS is planned to be organised within four thematic pillars: (1) Support to Tsunami Service Providers, (2) Tsunami Data, (3) Numerical Models, and (4) Hazard and Risk Products. We outline how identified needs in tsunami science and tsunami risk mitigation will be addressed within this structure and how participation within EPOS will become an integration point for community development

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a threephase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models' weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (P01) distributed at an average spacing of -20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP approximate to 2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM1 8 results and documentation

The manosphere is an online network of disparate formations, which are united in their antipathy toward feminism, their reliance on evolutionary psychology and their belief that Western civilization is under threat. In recent years, a growing body of scholarship on the manosphere has emerged from a range of disciplinary perspectives. Much of this work sits within internet studies but there are also significant contributions from gender studies, social psychology and terrorism / cybersecurity studies. The purpose of this paper is to take stock of the current research, to identify methodological limitations, and to propose some new interdependent research frameworks and methods. To date, much of the work conducted on the manosphere and its various subgroups (e.g. incel) relies on gathering a dataset from one platform and subjecting it to either manual or machine analysis to identify key themes or characteristics. While this categorisation has been important, its frequent replication has led to a certain stagnation of knowledge, as we are missing the dynamic aspects of how and where ideas travel and interconnect. We call for a conceptual shift away from thinking of manosphere communities such as incel as isolated, homogenous identity groups, to conceiving of them instead as a multifaceted, ever-evolving online ecosystem. We map out a number of key pathways that need to be explored, outlining methodologies for each. Approaching the incel/manosphere as a dynamic ecosystem, we argue, will take knowledge of this phenomenon in important new directions, as well as opening up new space for inter-disciplinary collaboration.

Biomass burning (BB) produces large quantities of carbonaceous aerosol (black carbon and organic aerosol, BC and OA, respectively), which significantly degrade air quality and impact climate. BC absorbs radiation, warming the atmosphere, while OA typically scatters radiation, leading to cooling. However, some OA, termed brown carbon (BrC), also absorbs visible and near UV radiation; although, its properties are not well constrained. We explore three aircraft campaigns from important BB regions with different dominant fuel and fire types (Western Wildfire Experiment for Cloud Chemistry, Aerosol Absorption, and Nitrogen [WE-CAN] in the western United States and ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS and Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing for Year downwind of southern Africa) and compare them with simulations from the global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem using GFED4s. The model generally captures the observed vertical profiles of carbonaceous BB aerosol concentrations; however, we find that BB BC emissions are underestimated in southern Africa. Our comparisons suggest that BC and/or BrC absorption is substantially higher downwind of Africa than in the western United States and, while the Saleh et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2220) and FIREX parameterizations based on the BC:OA ratio improve model-observation agreement in some regions, they do not sufficiently differentiate absorption characteristics at short wavelengths. We find that photochemical whitening substantially decreases the burden and direct radiative effect of BrC (annual mean of +0.29 W m−2 without whitening and +0.08 W m−2 with). Our comparisons suggest that whitening is required to explain WE-CAN observations; however, the importance of whitening for African fires cannot be confirmed. Qualitative comparisons with the OMI UV aerosol index suggest our standard BrC whitening scheme may be too fast over Africa.

Megathrust earthquakes that occur repeatedly along the plate interface of subduction zones can cause severe damage due to strong ground motion and the destructive tsunamis they can generate. We developed a set of scenario earthquakes to evaluate tsunami hazards and tsunami early warning systems for such devastating earthquakes. Although it is known that the slip distribution on a fault strongly affects the tsunami height distribution in near-field coastal areas, the slip distribution of future earthquakes cannot be exactly predicted. One way to resolve this difficulty is to create a set of scenario earthquakes in which a set of heterogeneous slip distributions on the source fault is stochastically generated based on a given slip probability density function (SPDF). The slip distributions generated in this manner differ from event to event, but their average over a large ensemble of models converges to a predefined SPDF resembling the long-term average of ruptures on the target fault zone. We created a set of SPDF-based scenario earthquakes for an expected future Mw 8.2 Tonankai earthquake in the eastern half of the Nankai trough, off southwest Japan, and computed the ensuing tsunamis. We found that the estimated peak coastal amplitudes among the ensemble of tsunamis along the near-field coast differed by factors of 3 to 9, and the earliest and latest arrivals at each observation site differed by 400 to 700 s. The variations in both peak tsunami amplitude and arrival time at each site were well approximated by a Gaussian distribution. For cases in which the slip distribution is unknown, the average and standard deviation of these scenario datasets can provide first approximations of forecast tsunami height and arrival time and their uncertainties, respectively. At most coastal observation sites, tsunamis modeled similarly but using a uniform slip distribution underpredicted tsunami amplitudes but gave earlier arrival times than those modeled with a heterogeneous slip

The Calabrian subduction zone is one of the narrowest arcs on Earth and a key area to understand the geodynamic evolution of the Mediterranean and other marginal seas. Here in the Ionian Sea, the African plate subducts beneath Eurasia. Imaging the boundary between the downgoing slab and the upper plate along the Calabrian subduction zone is important for assessing the potential of the subduction zone to generate mega‐thrust earthquakes and was the main objective of this study. Here we present and analyze the results from a 380 km long, wide‐angle seismic profile spanning the complete subduction zone, from the deep Ionian Basin and the accretionary wedge to NE Sicily, with additional constraints offered by 3‐D Gravity modeling and the analysis of earthquake hypocenters. The velocity model for the wide‐angle seismic profile images thin oceanic crust throughout the basin. The Calabrian backstop extends underneath the accretionary wedge to about 100 km SE of the coast. The seismic model was extended in depth using earthquake hypocenters. The combined results indicate that the slab dip increases abruptly from 2‐3° to 60‐70° over a distance of ≤50 km underneath the Calabrian backstop. This abrupt steepening is likely related to the roll‐back geodynamic evolution of the narrow Calabrian slab which shows great similarity to the shallow and deep geometry of the Gibraltar slab. Plain language abstract We investigate the deep crustal structure of southern Italy and the Central Mediterranean where some of the oldest oceanic crust on Earth is actively descending (subducting) into the earth's interior (Speranza et al., 2012). This process causes much of the moderate seismicity observed in this region and may be responsible for strong historical earthquakes as well (Gutscher et al., 2006). Deep seismic data recorded during a marine geophysical expedition performed in 2014, allow us to reconstruct the 3‐D geometry of this subduction zone. Our data reveal a 1‐4 km thick evaporitic (

The complexity of coseismic slip distributions influences the tsunami hazard posed by local and, to a certain extent, distant tsunami sources. Large slip concentrated in shallow patches was observed in recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, possibly due to dynamic amplification near the free surface, variable frictional conditions or other factors. We propose a method for incorporating enhanced shallow slip for subduction earthquakes while preventing systematic slip excess at shallow depths over one or more seismic cycles. The method uses the classic k(-2) stochastic slip distributions, augmented by shallow slip amplification. It is necessary for deep events with lower slip to occur more often than shallow ones with amplified slip to balance the long-term cumulative slip. We evaluate the impact of this approach on tsunami hazard in the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea adopting a realistic 3D geometry for three subduction zones, by using it to model similar to 150,000 earthquakes with M-w from 6.0 to 9.0. We combine earthquake rates, depth-dependent slip distributions, tsunami modeling, and epistemic uncertainty through an ensemble modeling technique. We found that the mean hazard curves obtained with our method show enhanced probabilities for larger inundation heights as compared to the curves derived from depth-independent slip distributions. Our approach is completely general and can be applied to any subduction zone in the world.

Finite-fault models for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake indicate bilateral rupture with large-slip patches located north and south of the epicenter. Previous studies also show that this event features significant slip in the shallow part of the megathrust, which is revealed through correction of the forward tsunami modeling scheme used in tsunami inversions. The presence of shallow slip is consistent with the coseismic seafloor deformation measured off the Maule region adjacent to the trench and confirms that tsunami observations are particularly important for constraining far-offshore slip. Here, we benchmark the method of Optimal Time Alignment (OTA) of the tsunami waveforms in the joint inversion of tsunami (DART and tide-gauges) and geodetic (GPS, InSAR, land-leveling) observations for this event. We test the application of OTA to the tsunami Green’s functions used in a previous inversion. Through a suite of synthetic tests we show that if the bias in the forward model is comprised only of delays in the tsunami signals, the OTA can correct them precisely, independently of the sensors (DART or coastal tide-gauges) and, to the first-order, of the bathymetric model used. The same suite of experiments is repeated for the real case of the 2010 Maule earthquake where, despite the results of the synthetic tests, DARTs are shown to outperform tide-gauges. This gives an indication of the relative weights to be assigned when jointly inverting the two types of data. Moreover, we show that using OTA is preferable to subjectively correcting possible time mismatch of the tsunami waveforms. The results for the source model of the Maule earthquake show that using just the first-order modeling correction introduced by OTA confirms the bilateral rupture pattern around the epicenter, and, most importantly, shifts the inferred northern patch of slip to a shallower position consistent with the slip models obtained by applying more complex physics-based corrections to the tsu

Andrea Argnani in his comment on Dellong et al., 2020 (Geometry of the deep Calabrian subduction (Central Mediterranean Sea) from wide‐angle seismic data and 3D gravity modeling), proposes an alternate interpretation of the wide‐angle seismic velocity models presented by Dellong et al., 2018 and Dellong et al., 2020 and proposes a correction of the literature citations in these paper. In this reply, we discuss in detail all points raised by Andrea Argnani.

As an alternative to spectral methods, stochastic self-similar slip can be produced through a composite source model by placing a power-law scaling size-frequency distribution of circular slip dislocations on a fault surface. However these model do not accurately account for observed surface rupture behaviour. We propose a modification to the composite source model that corrects this issue. The advantage of this technique is that it accommodates the use of fractal slip distributions on non-planar fault surfaces. However to mimic a surface rupture using this technique, releasing the boundary condition at the top of the fault, we observed a systematic decrease in slip at shallow depths. We propose a new strategy whereby the surface is treated like a reflector with the slip being folded back onto the fault. Two different techniques based on this principal are presented: the first is the method of images. It requires a small change to pre-existing codes and works for planar faults. The second involves the use of a multi-stage trilateration technique. It is applied to non-planar faults described by an unstructured mesh. The reflected slip calculated using the two techniques is near identical on a planar fault, suggesting they are equivalent. Applying this correction, where reflected slip is accounted for in the composite source model, the lack of slip at shallow depths is not observed any more and there is no systematic trend with depth. However, there are other parameters which may affect the spatial distribution of slip across the fault plane. For example, the type of probability density function used in the placement of the subevent is also important. In the case where the location of maximum slip is known to a first order, a Gaussian may be appropriate to describe the probability function. For hazard assessment studies a uniform probability density function is more suitable as it provides no underlying systematic spatial trend.

Laser reflectometry (BOTDR), commonly used for structural health monitoring (bridges, dams, etc.), for the first time is being tested to study movements of an active fault on the seafloor, 25 km offshore Catania Sicily (an urban area of 1 million people). Under ideal conditions, this technique can measure small strains (10E-6), across very large distances (10 - 200 km) and locate these strains with a spatial resolution of 10 - 50 m. As the first experiment of the European funded FOCUS project (ERC Advanced Grant), in late April 2020 we aimed to connect and deploy a dedicated 6-km long strain cable to the TSS (Test Site South) seafloor observatory in 2100 m water depth operated by INFN-LNS (Italian National Physics Institute). The work plan for the marine expedition FocusX1 onboard the research vessel PourquoiPas? is described here. First, microbathymetric mapping and a video camera survey are performed by the ROV Victor6000. Then, several intermediate junction frames and short connector cables (umbilicals) are connected. A cable-end module and 6-km long fiber-optic strain cable (manufactured by Nexans Norway) is then connected to the new junction box. Next, we use a deep-water cable-laying system with an integrated plow (updated Deep Sea Net design Ifremer, Toulon) to bury the cable 20 cm in the soft sediments in order to increase coupling between the cable and the seafloor. The targeted track for the cable crosses the North Alfeo Fault at three locations. Laser reflectometry measurements began April 2020 and will be calibrated by a three-year deployment of seafloor geodetic instruments (Canopus acoustic beacons manufactured by iXblue) also started April 2020, to quantify relative displacement across the fault. During a future marine expedition, tentatively scheduled for 2021 (FocusX2) a passive seismological experiment is planned to record regional seismicity. This will involve deployment of a temporary network of OBS (Ocean Bottom Seismometers) on the seafloor and

Laser reflectometry (BOTDR), commonly used for structural health monitoring (bridges, dams, etc.), will for the first time be applied to study movements of an active fault on the seafloor 25 km offshore Catania Sicily. The goal of the European funded FOCUS project (ERC Advanced Grant) is to connect a 6-km long strain cable to the EMSO seafloor observatory in 2100 m water depth. Laser observations will be calibrated by seafloor geodetic instruments and seismological stations. A long-term goal is the development of dual-use telecom cables with industry partners.

Laser reflectometry (BOTDR), commonly used for structural health monitoring (bridges, dams, etc.), will for the first time be applied to study movements of an active fault on the seafloor, 25 km offshore Catania Sicily (an urban area of 1 million people). This technique can measure and locate micro-strains (< 1 mm) across very large distances (10 - 200 km). The goal of the European funded FOCUS project (ERC Advanced Grant) is to connect a dedicated 6-km long strain cable to the EMSO (European Multidisciplinary water-column and Seafloor Observatory) seafloor observatory in 2100 m water depth. Here, in May 2017, between the onshore fault system on the SE flank of Mount Etna and the deeper offshore Alfeo fault system, 4 cm of dextral strike-slip movement was documented as a slow slip event by seafloor acoustic ranging. For the planned seafloor operations, a detailed site survey of the seafloor will first be performed to determine the best path for deployment of the new strain cable. The next step will be to connect this 6-km long fiber optic cable to the EMSO station TSS (Test Site South) using a deep-water cable-laying system with an integrated plow to bury the cable 20 cm in the soft sediments in order to increase coupling between the cable and the seafloor. The targeted track for the cable will cross the North Alfeo Fault at three locations. Laser reflectometry measurements will be calibrated by a three-year deployment of seafloor geodetic instruments to quantify relative displacement across the fault. During the implementation of the laser reflectometry, a passive seismological experiment is planned to record regional seismicity. This will involve deployment of a temporary network of OBS (Ocean Bottom Seismometers) on the seafloor and seismic stations on land, supplemented by INGV permanent land stations. The simultaneous use of laser reflectometry, seafloor geodetic stations as well as seismological land and sea stations will provide an integrated system for monit

In the Ionian Sea (Central Mediterranean) the slow convergence between Africa and Eurasia results in the formation of a narrow subduction zone. The nature of the crust of the subducting plate remains debated and could represent the last remnants of the Neo-Tethys ocean. The origin of the Ionian basin is also under discussion, especially concerning the rifting mechanisms as the Malta Escarpment could represent a remnant of this opening. This subduction retreat toward the south-east (motion occurring since the last 35 Ma) but is confined to the narrow Ionian Basin. A major lateral slab tear fault is required to accommodate the slab roll-back. This fault is thought to propagate along the eastern Sicily margin but its precise location remains controversial. This study focuses on the deep crustal structure of the Eastern-Sicily margin and the Malta Escarpment. We present two two-dimensional P-wave velocity models obtained from forward modeling of wide-angle seismic data acquired onboard the R/V Meteor during the DIONYSUS cruise in 2014. The results image an oceanic crust within the Ionian basin as well as the deep structure of the Malta Escarpment, which presents characteristics of a transform margin. A deep and asymmetrical sedimentary basin is imaged south of the Messina strait and seems to have opened between the Calabrian and Peloritan continental terranes. The interpretation of the velocity models suggests that the tear fault is located east of the Malta Escarpment, along the Alfeo fault system (AFS).

A detailed study, based on ocean‐bottom seismometers (OBSs) recordings from two recording periods (3.5 months in 2011 and 2 months in 2014) and on a high‐resolution, 3D velocity model, is presented here, which provides an alternative view of the microseismicity along the submerged section of the North Anatolian fault (NAF) within the western Sea of Marmara (SoM). The nonlinear probabilistic software packages of NonLinLoc and NLDiffLoc were used for locating earthquakes. Only earthquakes that comply with the following location criteria (e.g., representing 20% of the total amount of events) were considered for analysis: (1) number of stations≥5; (2) number of phases≥6, including both P and S; (3) root mean square (rms) location error≤0.5 s; and (4) azimuthal gap≤180°. P and S travel times suggest that there are strong velocity anomalies along the Western High, with low Vp, low Vs, and ultra‐high Vp/Vs in areas where mud volcanoes and gas‐prone sediment layers are known to be present. The location results indicate that not all earthquakes occurred as strike‐slip events at crustal depths (>8 km) along the axis of the Main Marmara fault (MMF). In contrast, the following features were observed: (1) a significant number of earthquakes occurred off‐axis (e.g., 24%), with predominantly normal focal mechanisms, at depths between 2 and 6 km, along tectonically active, structural trends oriented east–west or southwest–northeast, and (2) a great number of earthquakes was also found to occur within the upper sediment layers (at depths<2 km), particularly in the areas where free gas is suspected to exist, based on high‐resolution 3D seismics (e.g., 28%). Part of this ultra‐shallow seismicity appears to occur in response to deep earthquakes of intermediate (ML∼4–5) magnitude. Resolving the depth of the shallow seismicity requires adequate experimental design ensuring source–receiver distances of the same order as hypocentral depths. To reach this objective, deep‐seafloor observa

We propose a strategy to place a self similar slip distribution on a complex fault surface that is represented by an unstructured mesh. This is possible by applying a strategy based on the composite source model where a hierarchical set of asperities, each with its own slip function which is dependent on the distance from the asperity centre. Central to this technique is the efficient, accurate computation of distance between two points on the fault surface. This is known as the geodetic distance problem. We propose a method to compute the distance across complex non-planar surfaces based on a corollary of the Huygens’ principle. The difference between this method compared to others sample-based algorithms which precede it, is the use of a curved front at a local level to calculate the distance. This technique produces a highly accurate computation of the distance as the curvature of the front is linked to the distance from the source. Our local scheme is based on a sequence of two trilaterations, producing a robust algorithm which is highly precise. We test the strategy on a planar surface in order to assess its ability to keep the self similarity properties of a slip distribution. We also present a synthetic self-similar slip distribution on a real slab topography for a M8.5 event. This method for computing distance may be extended to the estimation of first arrival times in both complex 3D surfaces or 3D volumes.

Seismological, tsunami and geodetic observations have shown that subduction zones are complex systems where the properties of earthquake rupture vary with depth as a result of different pre-stress and frictional conditions. A wealth of earthquakes of different sizes and different source features (e.g. rupture duration) can be generated in subduction zones, including tsunami earthquakes, some of which can produce extreme tsunamigenic events. Here, we offer a geological perspective principally accounting for depth-dependent frictional conditions, while adopting a simplified distribution of on-fault tectonic pre-stress. We combine a lithology-controlled, depth-dependent experimental friction law with 2D elastodynamic rupture simulations for a Tohoku-like subduction zone cross-section. Subduction zone fault rocks are dominantly incohesive and clay-rich near the surface, transitioning to cohesive and more crystalline at depth. By randomly shifting along fault dip the location of the high shear stress regions (“asperities”), moderate to great thrust earthquakes and tsunami earthquakes are produced that are quite consistent with seismological, geodetic, and tsunami observations. As an effect of depth-dependent friction in our model, slip is confined to the high stress asperity at depth; near the surface rupture is impeded by the rock-clay transition constraining slip to the clay-rich layer. However, when the high stress asperity is located in the clay-to-crystalline rock transition, great thrust earthquakes can be generated similar to the Mw 9 Tohoku (2011) earthquake.

Airborne measurements of meteorological, aerosol, and stratocumulus cloud properties have been harmonized from six field campaigns during July-August months between 2005 and 2016 off the California coast. A consistent set of core instruments was deployed on the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies Twin Otter for 113 flight days, amounting to 514 flight hours. A unique aspect of the compiled data set is detailed measurements of aerosol microphysical properties (size distribution, composition, bioaerosol detection, hygroscopicity, optical), cloud water composition, and different sampling inlets to distinguish between clear air aerosol, interstitial in-cloud aerosol, and droplet residual particles in cloud. Measurements and data analysis follow documented methods for quality assurance. The data set is suitable for studies associated with aerosol-cloud-precipitation-meteorology-radiation interactions, especially owing to sharp aerosol perturbations from ship traffic and biomass burning. The data set can be used for model initialization and synergistic application with meteorological models and remote sensing data to improve understanding of the very interactions that comprise the largest uncertainty in the effect of anthropogenic emissions on radiative forcing.

Two-thirds of the earth’s surface is covered by water and thus largely inaccessible to modern networks of seismological instruments. A novel use of fiber optic cables could help improve hazard assessment and increase early warning capability. Laser reflectometry using BOTDR (Brillouin Optical Time Domain Reflectometry), commonly used for structural health monitoring of large-scale engineering structures (e.g. - bridges, dams, pipelines, etc.) can measure very small strains (< 1 mm) at very large distances (10 - 200 km). This technique has never been used to monitor deformation caused by active faults on the seafloor. The objective of the FOCUS project is to demonstrate that this technique can measure small (1 - 2 cm) displacements on a primary test site offshore Sicily where the recently mapped North Alfeo Fault crosses the Catania EMSO seafloor observatory, 28 km long fiber optic cable. Two other EMSO test sites with fiber optic cables, the 100 km long Capo Passero (SE Sicily) and the 2 km long cable off Molene Island (W France) will also be studied. Initial reflectometry tests were performed on these three cables using a Febus BOTDR interrogator in June and July 2017. Unexpectedly high dynamic noise levels (corresponding to strains of 200 - 500 mm/m) were observed on the Molene cable, likely due to the high-energy, shallow water, open ocean environment. The tests on the EMSO infrastructure in Sicily indicated low experimental noise levels (20 - 30 mm/m) out to a distance of 15 km. BOTDR observations will have to be calibrated by other independent measurements. Therefore, targeted marine geophysical surveys of the seafloor along the trace of the cable and faults are planned, with the use of seafloor geodetic instruments to quantify fault displacement. Once the BOTDR fault-monitoring technique has been tested, demonstrated and calibrated offshore Eastern Sicily, the goal is to expand it to other fiber optic cable networks, either existing research networks in earthq

This thesis presents results demonstrating the use of particulate composition measurements to determine the mechanisms of aerosol formation in both chamber and field studies. Aerosol composition measurements are also used to theoretically estimate the water-uptake behavior and ability to nucleate cloud droplets of atmospheric aerosol; these estimates are compared with in-situ airborne measurements. Common to all studies presented is the use of online aerosol mass spectrometry, a technique with high time resolution and minimal artifacts. Chemical mechanisms involved in particle formation from the photooxidation of isoprene were explored in chamber studies using both online and offline mass spectrometry. The yield of aerosol and the nature of oliogmers formed was found to depend on the NOx concentration. Peroxides were found to be important under low-NOx conditions while under high-NOx conditions the majority of the particulate mass was found to derive from reaction products of methacrolein. Particle formation from photooxidation of aliphatic amines was shown to be a feasible route of secondary organic aerosol formation in the atmosphere. Chamber studies at low relative humidity demonstrated that particle formation is primarily the result of acid-base reactions between amines and nitric or sulfuric acid, though diverse oxidized organic compounds are also formed. Thermodynamic calculations show that certain amines can compete with ammonia to form aminium salts at atmospherically relevant concentrations. An airborne field study near a major bovine source in the San Joaquin Valley, CA gave evidence of particulate amine formation in the atmosphere. The composition of particulate emissions from ships was studied during a joint shipboard and airborne field project in the Eastern Pacific. Particulate emissions were found to contain significantly higher levels of organic material than accounted for in current inventories. Observed

Controlling for socioeconomic and geographic factors, under-5 mortality (5q0) in developing countries has been declining at about 2.7% per year, a high rate of ‘technical progress’. This paper adduces theoretical and empirical reasons for rejecting the usual specification of homogeneous technical progress across countries and uses a panel of 95 developing countries for the period 1970 to 2000 to explore the consequences of heterogeneity. Allowing country-specific rates of technical progress sharply reduces the estimated income elasticity of 5q0 and points to country variation in technical progress as the principal source of the (large) cross-country variation in 5q0 decline. Education levels and physician coverage also contribute and are less affected than income of allowing country variation in technical progress. The paper concludes by decomposing 1970–2000 5q0 decline into its different sources for each country.

BACKGROUND: In China, there are more than 300 million male smokers. Tobacco taxation reduces smoking-related premature deaths and increases government revenues, but has been criticised for disproportionately affecting poorer people. We assess the distributional consequences (across different wealth quintiles) of a specific excise tax on cigarettes in China in terms of both financial and health outcomes. METHODS: We use extended cost-effectiveness analysis methods to estimate, across income quintiles, the health benefits (years of life gained), the additional tax revenues raised, the net financial consequences for households, and the financial risk protection provided to households, that would be caused by a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax fully passed onto tobacco consumers. For our modelling analysis, we used plausible values for key parameters, including an average price elasticity of demand for tobacco of -0·38, which is assumed to vary from -0·64 in the poorest quintile to -0·12 in the richest, and we considered only the male population, which constitutes the overwhelming majority of smokers in China. FINDINGS: Our modelling analysis showed that a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax would lead to 231 million years of life gained (95% uncertainty range 194-268 million) over 50 years (a third of which would be gained in the lowest income quintile), a gain of US$703 billion ($616-781 billion) of additional tax revenues from the excise tax (14% of which would come from the lowest income quintile, compared with 24% from the highest income quintile). The excise tax would increase overall household expenditures on tobacco by $376 billion ($232-505 billion), but decrease these expenditures by $21 billion (-$83 to $5 billion) in the lowest income quintile, and would reduce expenditures on tobacco-related disease by $24·0 billion ($17·3-26·3 billion, 28% of which would benefit the lowest income quintile). Finally, it would provide financial r

BACKGROUND: In China, there are more than 300 million male smokers. Tobacco taxation reduces smoking-related premature deaths and increases government revenues, but has been criticised for disproportionately affecting poorer people. We assess the distributional consequences (across different wealth quintiles) of a specific excise tax on cigarettes in China in terms of both financial and health outcomes. METHODS: We use extended cost-effectiveness analysis methods to estimate, across income quintiles, the health benefits (years of life gained), the additional tax revenues raised, the net financial consequences for households, and the financial risk protection provided to households, that would be caused by a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax fully passed onto tobacco consumers. For our modelling analysis, we used plausible values for key parameters, including an average price elasticity of demand for tobacco of -0·38, which is assumed to vary from -0·64 in the poorest quintile to -0·12 in the richest, and we considered only the male population, which constitutes the overwhelming majority of smokers in China. FINDINGS: Our modelling analysis showed that a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax would lead to 231 million years of life gained (95% uncertainty range 194-268 million) over 50 years (a third of which would be gained in the lowest income quintile), a gain of US$703 billion ($616-781 billion) of additional tax revenues from the excise tax (14% of which would come from the lowest income quintile, compared with 24% from the highest income quintile). The excise tax would increase overall household expenditures on tobacco by $376 billion ($232-505 billion), but decrease these expenditures by $21 billion (-$83 to $5 billion) in the lowest income quintile, and would reduce expenditures on tobacco-related disease by $24·0 billion ($17·3-26·3 billion, 28% of which would benefit the lowest income quintile). Finally, it would provide financial r

BACKGROUND: An estimated 4% of global child deaths (approximately 300,000 deaths) were attributed to rotavirus in 2010. About a third of these deaths occurred in India and Ethiopia. Public finance of rotavirus vaccination in these two countries could substantially decrease child mortality and also reduce rotavirus-related hospitalizations, prevent health-related impoverishment and bring significant cost savings to households. METHODS: We use a methodology of 'extended cost-effectiveness analysis' (ECEA) to evaluate a hypothetical publicly financed program for rotavirus vaccination in India and Ethiopia. We measure program impact along four dimensions: 1) rotavirus deaths averted; 2) household expenditures averted; 3) financial risk protection afforded; 4) distributional consequences across the wealth strata of the country populations. RESULTS: In India and Ethiopia, the program would lead to a substantial decrease in rotavirus deaths, mainly among the poorer; it would reduce household expenditures across all income groups and it would effectively provide financial risk protection, mostly concentrated among the poorest. Potential indirect benefits of vaccination (herd immunity) would increase program benefits among all income groups, whereas potentially decreased vaccine efficacy among poorer households would reduce the equity benefits of the program. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach incorporates financial risk protection and distributional consequences into the systematic economic evaluation of vaccine policy, illustrated here with the case study of public finance for rotavirus vaccination. This enables selection of vaccine packages based on the quantitative inclusion of information on equity and on how much financial risk protection is being bought per dollar expenditure on vaccine policy, in addition to how much health is being bought.

The Oxford Handbook of Sport and Performance Psychology includes the latest research and applied perspectives from leaders in the field of performance psychology. Current and comprehensive, this foundational volume presents sport and performance psychology from myriad perspectives. The chapters collected here also cover the history of sport and performance psychology; the scope and nature of the field; ethical issues in sport and performance psychology; performance psychology in the performing arts and other non-sporting fields; perfectionism and performance; the role of the performance coach and of the sport psychologist with a coach and team; supervision; and a look ahead to the future of the field.

Perfectionism is a personality disposition related to individual differences in performance in sport, school, and other areas of life where performance, tests, and competition play a major role. This chapter discusses the importance of differentiating two main dimensions of perfectionism—perfectionistic strivings and perfectionistic concerns—when examining the relationships between perfectionism and performance in sport, academics, music competitions, aptitude tests, and laboratory tasks. The chapter presents studies showing that perfectionistic strivings are positively associated with performance and predict higher performance beyond people’s general aptitude and previous performance level. In contrast, the studies do not show that perfectionistic concerns are consistently negatively associated with performance. To conclude the chapter, implications for applied psychology are discussed as are open questions for future research regarding issues such as the development of perfectionism, performance and efficiency, and gender differences.

Crossover in CO desorption behavior and nanoscale structure probed with STM from ruthenium single crystals to PVD and mass-selected nanoparticles.

Airborne measurements in regions of varying meteorology and pollution are used to quantify the contribution of organic acids and a mass spectral marker for oxygenated aerosols, m/z 44, to the total organic aerosol budget. Organic acids and m/z 44 separately are shown to exhibit their highest organic mass fractions in the vicinity of clouds. The contribution of such oxygenated species is shown to increase as a function of relative humidity, aerosol hygroscopicity (and decreasing organic mass fraction), and is typically greater off the California coast versus the continental atmospheres studied. Reasons include more efficient chemistry and partitioning of organic acid precursors with increasing water in the reaction medium, and high aqueous‐phase processing times in boundary layers with higher cloud volume fractions. These results highlight the importance of secondary organic aerosol formation in both wet aerosols and cloud droplets.

In-situ Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) measurements were obtained in the boundary layer over Houston, TX during the 2006 Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (GoMACCS) campaign onboard the CIRPAS Twin Otter. Polluted air masses in and out of cloudy regions were sampled for a total of 22 flights, with CCN measurements obtained for 17 of these flights. In this paper, we focus on CCN closure during two flights, within and downwind of the Houston regional plume and over the Houston Ship Channel. During both flights, air was sampled with particle concentrations exceeding 25,000 cm-3 and CCN concentrations exceeding 10,000 cm-3. CCN closure was evaluated by comparing measured CCN concentrations with those predicted on the basis of measured aerosol size distributions and Aerosol Mass Spectrometer particle composition. Different assumptions concerning the internally mixed chemical composition result in average CCN overprediction ranging from 3% to 36% (based on a linear fit). It is hypothesized that the externally-mixed fraction of the aerosol contributes much of the CCN closure scatter, while the internally-mixed fraction largely controls the overprediction bias. Finally, based on the droplet sizes of activated CCN, organics do not seem to impact, on average, the CCN activation kinetics.

In situ cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) measurements were obtained in the boundary layer over Houston, Texas, during the 2006 Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (GoMACCS) campaign onboard the CIRPAS Twin Otter. Polluted air masses in and out of cloudy regions were sampled for a total of 22 flights, with CCN measurements obtained for 17 of these flights. In this paper, we focus on CCN closure during two flights, within and downwind of the Houston regional plume and over the Houston Ship Channel. During both flights, air was sampled with particle concentrations exceeding 25,000 cm 3 and CCN concentrations exceeding 10,000 cm 3. CCN closure is evaluated by comparing measured concentrations with those predicted on the basis of measured aerosol size distributions and aerosol mass spectrometer particle composition. Different assumptions concerning the internally mixed chemical composition result in average CCN overprediction ranging from 3% to 36% (based on a linear fit). It is hypothesized that the externally mixed fraction of the aerosol contributes much of the CCN closure scatter, while the internally mixed fraction largely controls the overprediction bias. On the basis of the droplet sizes of activated CCN, organics do not seem to impact, on average, the CCN activation kinetics.