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Protected areas (PAs) have been regarded as a critical strategy to protect natural forest (NF) and biodiversity. Estate-crop expansion is an important driver of deforestation in Indonesia. Yet, little is known regarding the temporal dynamics of PA effectiveness in preventing estate-crop expansion into NF. We employ Cox proportional hazard models and their extensions to characterize the dynamics of estate-crop expansion into NF in Indonesia during 1996–2015. The results show that PA effectiveness in Sumatra decreased over time and became insignificant in 2012–2015. A multistate modeling analysis shows that hopping in land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC) trajectories with shrub and/or bare ground as intermediates has decreased PA effectiveness and facilitated the expansion. Preventing LCLUC trajectory hopping becomes crucial to biodiversity conservation because it tends to occur at lowland forest, diminishing natural habitat area and increasing NF isolation.

Objectives: Little is known about sex differences in healthy life expectancy among the oldest old, the fastest growing segment of the older population. This study examines sex differences in total, healthy and unhealthy life expectancy among nonagenarians. Methods: Longitudinal data of 884 older adults aged 90 and over participating in the Vitality 90+ study (Tampere, Finland) were used, including 2501 observations (health or death states) from 5 measurement waves between 2001 and 2014. Using the MSM and ELECT packages in R, multistate survival models were performed to estimate the transition probabilities of older adults through the different health states and to calculate life expectancies. The analyses were done separately for two health indicators (disability and multimorbidity) to see whether patterns were consistent. Results: Women had higher total life expectancies than men (about 8 months), but also higher unhealthy life expectancies. Men had a higher disability-free life expectancy between the age of 90 and 95 compared to women. For multimorbidity, no sex differences in healthy life expectancy were found. Conclusions: This study showed that the male-female health-survival paradox remains at very old age. Women aged 90+ live longer than men, and spend more time in poor health.