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Aims The prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke while taking oral anticoagulation is poorly understood. This study aimed to characterize the outcomes of patients following a stroke event while on oral anticoagulation. Methods and results Individual participant data from five pivotal randomized trials of antithrombotic therapy in AF were used to assess the outcomes of patients with a post-randomization ischemic stroke while on study medication (warfarin, standard-, or lower-dose direct oral anticoagulant regimen) during trial follow-up. The primary outcome was recurrent ischemic stroke after the first post-randomization ischemic stroke. The primary analysis included 1163 patients with a first post-randomization ischemic stroke while on study medication (median age 73 years, 39.3% female, 35.4% history of stroke before trial enrollment). During a median continued follow-up of 337 days, 74 patients had a recurrent ischemic stroke [cumulative incidence at 1 year: 7.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.2%-8.7%]. The cumulative incidence of mortality at 3 months after stroke was 12.4% (95% CI 10.5%-14.4%). Consistent results for the incidence of recurrent ischemic stroke at 1 year were obtained in an analysis accounting for the competing risk of death (6.2%, 95% CI 4.8%-7.9%) and in a landmark analysis excluding the first 2 weeks after the index stroke and only including patients without permanent study drug discontinuation since then (6.8%, 95% CI 4.6%-8.9%). Conclusion Patients with AF and ischemic stroke while on oral anticoagulation are at increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke and death. These patients currently have an unmet medical need. Key Question What is the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke and other outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation who suffer an ischemic stroke while on warfarin or a direct oral anticoagulant? Key Finding In this COMBINE AF analysis of five randomized trials, the risk of ischemic stroke after a

BACKGROUND: The relationship between omega-3 fatty acids and atrial fibrillation (AF) remains controversial. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine the prospective associations of blood or adipose tissue levels of eicosa-pentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) with incident AF. METHODS: We used participant-level data from a global consortium of 17 prospective cohort studies, each with baseline data on blood or adipose tissue omega-3 fatty acid levels and AF outcomes. Each participating study conducted a de novo analyses using a prespecified analytical plan with harmonized definitions for exposures, outcome, covariates, and sub-groups. Associations were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among 54,799 participants from 17 cohorts, 7,720 incident cases of AF were ascertained after a median 13.3 years of follow-up. In multivariable analysis, EPA levels were not associated with incident AF, HR per interquintile range (ie, the difference between the 90th and 10th percentiles) was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.95-1.05). HRs for higher levels of DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA, were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83-0.95), 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96), and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.87-0.99), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In vivo levels of omega-3 fatty acids including EPA, DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA were not associated with increased risk of incident AF. Our data suggest the safety of habitual dietary intakes of omega-3 fatty acids with respect to AF risk. Coupled with the known benefits of these fatty acids in the prevention of adverse coronary events, our study suggests that current dietary guidelines recommending fish/omega-3 fatty acid consumption can be maintained.

Rhesus cytomegalovirus-based (RhCMV-based) vaccine vectors induce immune responses that protect ~60% of rhesus macaques (RMs) from SIVmac239 challenge. This efficacy depends on induction of effector memory-based (EM-biased) CD8+ T cells recognizing SIV peptides presented by major histocompatibility complex-E (MHC-E) instead of MHC-Ia. The phenotype, durability, and efficacy of RhCMV/SIV-elicited cellular immune responses were maintained when vector spread was severely reduced by deleting the antihost intrinsic immunity factor phosphoprotein 71 (pp71). Here, we examined the impact of an even more stringent attenuation strategy on vector-induced immune protection against SIV. Fusion of the FK506-binding protein (FKBP) degradation domain to Rh108, the orthologue of the essential human CMV (HCMV) late gene transcription factor UL79, generated RhCMV/SIV vectors that conditionally replicate only when the FK506 analog Shield-1 is present. Despite lacking in vivo dissemination and reduced innate and B cell responses to vaccination, Rh108-deficient 68-1 RhCMV/SIV vectors elicited high-frequency, durable, EM-biased, SIV-specific T cell responses in RhCMV-seropositive RMs at doses of ≥ 1 × 106 PFU. Strikingly, elicited CD8+ T cells exclusively targeted MHC-Ia-restricted epitopes and failed to protect against SIVmac239 challenge. Thus, Rh108-dependent late gene expression is required for both induction of MHC-E-restricted T cells and protection against SIV.

AIMS: Invasive haemodynamic assessment with a pulmonary artery catheter is often used to guide the management of patients with cardiogenic shock (CS) and may provide important prognostic information. We aimed to assess prognostic associations and relationships to end-organ dysfunction of presenting haemodynamic parameters in CS. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Critical Care Cardiology Trials Network is an investigator-initiated multicenter registry of cardiac intensive care units (CICUs) in North America coordinated by the TIMI Study Group. Patients with CS (2018-2022) who underwent invasive haemodynamic assessment within 24 h of CICU admission were included. Associations of haemodynamic parameters with in-hospital mortality were assessed using logistic regression, and associations with presenting serum lactate were assessed using least squares means regression. Sensitivity analyses were performed excluding patients on temporary mechanical circulatory support and adjusted for vasoactive-inotropic score. Among the 3603 admissions with CS, 1473 had haemodynamic data collected within 24 h of CICU admission. The median cardiac index was 1.9 (25th-75th percentile, 1.6-2.4) L/min/m2 and mean arterial pressure (MAP) was 74 (66-86) mmHg. Parameters associated with mortality included low MAP, low systolic blood pressure, low systemic vascular resistance, elevated right atrial pressure (RAP), elevated RAP/pulmonary capillary wedge pressure ratio, and low pulmonary artery pulsatility index. These associations were generally consistent when controlling for the intensity of background pharmacologic and mechanical haemodynamic support. These parameters were also associated with higher presenting serum lactate. CONCLUSION: In a contemporary CS population, presenting haemodynamic parameters reflecting decreased systemic arterial tone and right ventricular dysfunction are associated with adverse outcomes and systemic hypoperfusion.

Background: Insulin-like growth factor–binding protein-7 (IGFBP-7) has been proposed as a potential prognostic biomarker in heart failure (HF), but the association between elevation in IGFBP-7 and HF outcomes in ambulant patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is unknown. Objectives: The authors addressed this question in a post hoc analysis of the DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure) trial. Methods: The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death or a worsening HF event. The risk of adverse outcome was compared across tertiles of IGFBP-7 concentration by means of Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT). The efficacy of randomized treatment across IGFBP-7 tertiles was assessed. Change in IGFBP-7 at 12 months was compared with the use of geometric means. Results: A total of 3,158 patients had IGFBP-7 measured at baseline, and 2,493 had a repeated measure at 12 months. Patients in the highest tertile of IGFBP-7 had evidence of more advanced HFrEF. The adjusted HR for the primary endpoint in tertile 3, compared with tertile 1, was 1.48 (95% CI: 1.17-1.88). There was no modification of the benefit of dapagliflozin by baseline IGFBP-7 (P interaction = 0.34). Dapagliflozin did not change IGFBP-7 levels over 1 year (P = 0.34). Conclusions: Higher IGFBP-7 in patients with HFrEF was associated with worse clinical profile and an increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes. IGFBP-7 provided prognostic information incremental to clinical variables, NT-proBNP, and hsTnT. The benefit of dapagliflozin was not modulated by IGFBP-7 level. (Study to Evaluate the Effect of Dapagliflozin on the Incidence of Worsening Heart Failure or Cardiovascular Death in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure [DAPA-HF]; NCT03036124)

Background: Elevated circulating carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125) is a marker of congestion and a predictor of outcomes in acute heart failure (HF). Less is known about CA125 in chronic ambulatory HF with reduced ejection fraction. Objectives: This study examined the association between baseline CA125 (and changes in CA125) and outcomes in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction in the DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure; NCT03036124) trial and its relationship with the effect of dapagliflozin. Methods: The primary outcome was a composite of a first episode of worsening HF or cardiovascular death. CA125 was measured at baseline and 12 months following randomization. Results: Median baseline CA125 was 13.04 U/mL (IQR: 8.78-21.13 U/mL) in 3,123 of 4,774 patients with available data. Compared with CA125 ≤35 U/mL (upper limit of normal), patients with CA125 >35 U/mL were at a higher risk of the primary outcome (adjusted HR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.29-1.96). The adjusted risks of the primary outcome relative to quartile 1 (Q1) (≤8.78 U/mL) were as follow: Q2, 8.79-13.04 U/mL (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.71-1.24); Q3, 13.05-21.13 U/mL (HR: 1.22; 95% CI: 0.94-1.59); Q4, ≥21.14 U/mL (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.28-2.09). The beneficial effect of dapagliflozin compared with placebo on the primary outcome was consistent whether CA125 was analyzed in quartiles (interaction P = 0.13) or as a continuous variable (interaction P = 0.75). The placebo-corrected relative change in CA125 at 12 months was −5.2% (95% CI: −10.6% to 0.5%; P = 0.07). Conclusions: In DAPA-HF, elevated CA125 levels were an independent predictor of the risk of worsening HF or cardiovascular death. Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of worsening HF or cardiovascular death regardless of baseline CA125.

Importance: Whether protein risk scores derived from a single plasma sample could be useful for risk assessment for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), in conjunction with clinical risk factors and polygenic risk scores, is uncertain. Objective: To develop protein risk scores for ASCVD risk prediction and compare them to clinical risk factors and polygenic risk scores in primary and secondary event populations. Design, Setting, and Participants: The primary analysis was a retrospective study of primary events among 13540 individuals in Iceland (aged 40-75 years) with proteomics data and no history of major ASCVD events at recruitment (study duration, August 23, 2000 until October 26, 2006; follow-up through 2018). We also analyzed a secondary event population from a randomized, double-blind lipid-lowering clinical trial (2013-2016), consisting of individuals with stable ASCVD receiving statin therapy and for whom proteomic data were available for 6791 individuals. Exposures: Protein risk scores (based on 4963 plasma protein levels and developed in a training set in the primary event population); polygenic risk scores for coronary artery disease and stroke; and clinical risk factors that included age, sex, statin use, hypertension treatment, type 2 diabetes, body mass index, and smoking status at the time of plasma sampling. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were composites of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary heart disease death or cardiovascular death. Performance was evaluated using Cox survival models and measures of discrimination and reclassification that accounted for the competing risk of non-ASCVD death. Results: In the primary event population test set (4018 individuals [59.0% women]; 465 events; median follow-up, 15.8 years), the protein risk score had a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.93 per SD (95% CI, 1.75 to 2.13). Addition of protein risk score and polygenic risk scores significantly increased the C index when added to a clinical ri

Additive manufacturing (AM) has matured significantly over the past decade and become a highly attractive tool for reducing manufacturing complexity and removing traditional design constraints. This is particularly desirable for rocket combustion devices which often feature hundreds of individual parts with precise tolerances. The degree to which AM can be used to improve combustion device performance, however, has been less rigorously explored. In this work, hydraulic performance impacts associated with and enabled by AM are assessed for a liquid bi-propellant swirl coaxial injector. Specifically, a single-element liquid oxygen/kerosene injector based on a canonical design was manufactured from inconel using Direct Metal Laser Sintering at two different coaxial recess depths. Cold-flow testing for the as-manufactured baseline injector found a reduction in the designed discharge coefficients, which is primarily attributed to increased surface roughness inherent in the AM process. Quantifying this difference provides data for tuning surface roughness effects in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models, which may be used to inform the design stage. In addition, CFD simulations were leveraged to identify hydraulic losses in the baseline design and redesign a more hydraulically efficient injector geometry utilizing reductions in dramatic flow constrictions. For the modified injector geometry, computational results predict a 19% and 8% increase in the fuel and oxidizer discharge coefficients, respectively, as well as an 18% increase in angular momentum relative to the baseline. These results in addition to recommendations made for minimizing frictional losses that resulted from the printing process demonstrate how AM and analysis-driven design may be utilized to develop a more hydraulically efficient liquid rocket engine injector, thus highlighting a pathway to higher thrust-to-weight ratio propulsion systems and increased launch vehicle payload capacity. This work was

Background: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are preferred over warfarin for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. Meta-analyses using individual patient data offer substantial advantages over study-level data. Methods: We used individual patient data from the COMBINE AF (A Collaboration Between Multiple Institutions to Better Investigate Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant Use in Atrial Fibrillation) database, which includes all patients randomized in the 4 pivotal trials of DOACs versus warfarin in atrial fibrillation (RE-LY [Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy], ROCKET AF [Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared With Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation], ARISTOTLE [Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation], and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 [Effective Anticoagulation With Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48]), to perform network meta-analyses using a stratified Cox model with random effects comparing standard-dose DOAC, lower-dose DOAC, and warfarin. Hazard ratios (HRs [95% CIs]) were calculated for efficacy and safety outcomes. Covariate-by-treatment interaction was estimated for categorical covariates and for age as a continuous covariate, stratified by sex. Results: A total of 71 683 patients were included (29 362 on standard-dose DOAC, 13 049 on lower-dose DOAC, and 29 272 on warfarin). Compared with warfarin, standard-dose DOACs were associated with a significantly lower hazard of stroke or systemic embolism (883/29 312 [3.01%] versus 1080/29 229 [3.69%]; HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.74-0.89]), death (2276/29 312 [7.76%] versus 2460/29 229 [8.42%]; HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.87-0.97]), and intracranial bleeding (184/29 270 [0.63%] versus 409/29 187 [1.40%]; HR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.37-0.56]), but no statistically different hazard of major bleeding (1479/29 270 [5.05%] versus 1733

AIMS: The aims of the Critical Care Cardiology Trials Network (CCCTN) are to develop a registry to investigate the epidemiology of cardiac critical illness and to establish a multicentre research network to conduct randomised clinical trials (RCTs) in patients with cardiac critical illness. METHODS AND RESULTS: The CCCTN was founded in 2017 with 16 centres and has grown to a research network of over 40 academic and clinical centres in the United States and Canada. Each centre enters data for consecutive cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) admissions for at least 2 months of each calendar year. More than 20 000 unique CICU admissions are now included in the CCCTN Registry. To date, scientific observations from the CCCTN Registry include description of variations in care, the epidemiology and outcomes of all CICU patients, as well as subsets of patients with specific disease states, such as shock, heart failure, renal dysfunction, and respiratory failure. The CCCTN has also characterised utilization patterns, including use of mechanical circulatory support in response to changes in the heart transplantation allocation system, and the use and impact of multidisciplinary shock teams. Over years of multicentre collaboration, the CCCTN has established a robust research network to facilitate multicentre registry-based randomised trials in patients with cardiac critical illness. CONCLUSION: The CCCTN is a large, prospective registry dedicated to describing processes-of-care and expanding clinical knowledge in cardiac critical illness. The CCCTN will serve as an investigational platform from which to conduct randomised controlled trials in this important patient population.

Aims: Blood uric acid (UA) levels are frequently elevated in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), may lead to gout and are associated with worse outcomes. Reduction in UA is desirable in HFrEF and sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors may have this effect. We aimed to examine the association between UA and outcomes, the effect of dapagliflozin according to baseline UA level, and the effect of dapagliflozin on UA in patients with HFrEF in the DAPA-HF trial. Methods and results: The association between UA and the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular death or worsening heart failure, its components, and all-cause mortality was examined using Cox regression analyses among 3119 patients using tertiles of UA, after adjustment for other prognostic variables. Change in UA from baseline over 12 months was also evaluated. Patients in tertile 3 (UA ≥6.8 mg/dl) versus tertile 1 (<5.4 mg/dl) were younger (66.3 ± 10.8 vs. 68 ± 10.2 years), more often male (83.1% vs. 71.5%), had lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (58.2 ± 17.4 vs. 70.6 ± 18.7 ml/min/1.73 m2), and more often treated with diuretics. Higher UA was associated with a greater risk of the primary outcome (adjusted hazard ratio tertile 3 vs. tertile 1: 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06–1.66; p = 0.01). The risk of heart failure hospitalization and cardiovascular death increased by 7% and 6%, respectively per 1 mg/dl unit increase of UA (p = 0.04 and p = 0.07). Spline analysis revealed a linear increase in risk above a cut-off UA value of 7.09 mg/dl. Compared with placebo, dapagliflozin reduced UA by 0.84 mg/dl (95% CI −0.93 to −0.74) over 12 months (p < 0.001). Dapagliflozin improved outcomes, irrespective of baseline UA concentration. Conclusion: Uric acid remains an independent predictor of worse outcomes in a well-treated contemporary HFrEF population. Compared with placebo, dapagliflozin reduced UA and improved outcomes irrespective of UA concen

Background: Circulating high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hsTnT) predominantly reflects myocardial injury, and higher levels are associated with a higher risk of worsening heart failure and death in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Less is known about the prognostic significance of changes in hsTnT over time, the effects of dapagliflozin on clinical outcomes in relation to baseline hsTnT levels, and the effect of dapagliflozin on hsTnT levels. Methods: DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure) was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of dapagliflozin (10 mg daily) in patients with New York Heart Association class II to IV symptoms and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% (median follow-up, 18.2 months). hsTnT (Roche Diagnostics) was measured at baseline in 3112 patients and at 1 year in 2506 patients. The primary end point was adjudicated worsening heart failure or cardiovascular death. Clinical end points were analyzed according to baseline hsTnT and change in hsTnT from baseline to 1 year. Comparative treatment effects on clinical end points with dapagliflozin versus placebo were assessed by baseline hsTnT. The effect of dapagliflozin on hsTnT was explored. Results: Median baseline hsTnT concentration was 20.0 (25th-75th percentile, 13.7-30.2) ng/L. Over 1 year, 67.9% of patients had a ≥10% relative increase or decrease in hsTnT concentrations, and 43.5% had a ≥20% relative change. A stepwise gradient of higher risk for the primary end point was observed across increasing quartiles of baseline hsTnT concentration (adjusted hazard ratio Q4 versus Q1, 3.44 [95% CI, 2.46-4.82]). Relative and absolute increases in hsTnT over 1 year were associated with higher subsequent risk of the primary end point. The relative reduction in the primary end point with dapagliflozin was consistent across quartiles of baseline hsTnT (P-interaction=0.55), but patients in the top quartile tended to have

Understanding possible climate futures that include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation modification (SRM) requires thinking not just about staying within the remaining carbon budget, but also about politics and people. However, despite growing interest in CDR and SRM, scenarios focused on these potential responses to climate change tend to exclude feedbacks between social and climate systems (a criticism applicable to climate change scenarios more generally). We adapted the Manoa Mash Up method to generate scenarios for CDR and SRM that were more integrative, creative, and dynamic. The method was modified to identify important branching points in which different choices in how to respond to climate change (feedbacks between climate and social dynamics) lead to a plurality of climate futures. An interdisciplinary group of participants imagined distant futures in which SRM or CDR develop into a major social-environmental force. Groups received other seeds of change, such as Universal Basic Income or China's Belt and Road Initiative, and surprises, such as permafrost collapse that grew to influence the course of events to 2100. Groups developed narratives describing pathways to the future and identified bifurcation points to generate families of branching scenarios. Four climate-social dynamics were identified: motivation to mitigate, moral hazard, social unrest, and trust in institutions. These dynamics could orient toward better or worse outcomes with SRM and CDR deployment (and mitigation and adaptation responses more generally) but are typically excluded from existing climate change scenarios. The importance of these dynamics could be tested through the inclusion of social-environmental feedbacks into integrated assessment models (IAM) exploring climate futures. We offer a step-by-step guide to the modified Manoa Mash-up method to generate more integrative, creative, and dynamic scenarios; reflect on broader implications of using this method for gener

Simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) challenge of rhesus macaques (RMs) vaccinated with strain 68-1 Rhesus Cytomegalovirus (RhCMV) vectors expressing SIV proteins (RhCMV/SIV) results in a binary outcome: stringent control and subsequent clearance of highly pathogenic SIV in similar to 55% of vaccinated RMs with no protection in the remaining 45%. Although previous work indicates that unconventionally restricted, SIV-specific, effector-memory (EM)-biased CD8(+) T cell responses are necessary for efficacy, the magnitude of these responses does not predict efficacy, and the basis of protection vs. non-protection in 68-1 RhCMV/SIV vector-vaccinated RMs has not been elucidated. Here, we report that 68-1 RhCMV/SIV vector administration strikingly alters the whole blood transcriptome of vaccinated RMs, with the sustained induction of specific immune-related pathways, including immune cell, toll-like receptor (TLR), inflammasome/cell death, and interleukin-15 (IL-15) signaling, significantly correlating with subsequent vaccine efficacy. Treatment of a separate RM cohort with IL-15 confirmed the central involvement of this cytokine in the protection signature, linking the major innate and adaptive immune gene expression networks that correlate with RhCMV/SIV vaccine efficacy. This change-from-baseline IL-15 response signature was also demonstrated to significantly correlate with vaccine efficacy in an independent validation cohort of vaccinated and challenged RMs. The differential IL-15 gene set response to vaccination strongly correlated with the pre-vaccination activity of this pathway, with reduced baseline expression of IL-15 response genes significantly correlating with higher vaccine-induced induction of IL-15 signaling and subsequent vaccine protection, suggesting that a robust de novo vaccine-induced IL-15 signaling response is needed to program vaccine efficacy. Thus, the RhCMV/SIV vaccine imparts a coordinated and persistent induction of innate and adaptive immune p

Background Currently, there is limited research on the prognostic value of NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) as a biomarker in COVID-19. We proposed the a priori hypothesis that an elevated NT-proBNP concentration at admission is associated with increased in-hospital mortality. Methods and Results In this prospective, observational cohort study of the American Heart Association's COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry, 4675 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were divided into normal and elevated NT-proBNP cohorts by standard age-adjusted heart failure thresholds, as well as separated by quintiles. Patients with elevated NT-proBNP (n=1344; 28.7%) were older, with more cardiovascular risk factors, and had a significantly higher rate of in-hospital mortality (37% versus 16%; P<0.001) and shorter median time to death (7 versus 9 days; P<0.001) than those with normal values. Analysis by quintile of NT-proBNP revealed a steep graded relationship with mortality (7.1%-40.2%; P<0.001). NT-proBNP was also associated with major adverse cardiac events, intensive care unit admission, intubation, shock, and cardiac arrest (P<0.001 for each). In subgroup analyses, NT-proBNP, but not prior heart failure, was associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors with presenting vital signs, an elevated NT-proBNP was associated with 2-fold higher adjusted odds of death (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.23; 95% CI, 1.80-2.76), and the log-transformed NT-proBNP with other biomarkers projected a 21% increased risk of death for each 2-fold increase (adjusted OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.08-1.34). Conclusions Elevated NT-proBNP levels on admission for COVID-19 are associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality and other complications in patients with and without heart failure.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments (IPCC) Special Report on 1.5 °C of global warming is clear. Nearly all pathways that hold global warming well below 2 °C involve carbon removal (IPCC, 2015). In addition, solar geoengineering is being considered as a potential tool to offset warming, especially to limit temperature until negative emissions technologies are sufficiently matured (MacMartin et al., 2018). Despite this, there has been a reluctance to embrace carbon removal and solar geoengineering, partly due to the perception that these technologies represent what is widely termed a “moral hazard”: that geoengineering will prevent people from developing the will to change their personal consumption and push for changes in infrastructure (Robock et al., 2010), erode political will for emissions cuts (Keith, 2007), or otherwise stimulate increased carbon emissions at the social-system level of analysis (Bunzl, 2008). These debates over carbon removal and geoengineering echo earlier ones over climate adaptation. We argue that debates over “moral hazard” in many areas of climate policy are unhelpful and misleading. We also propose an alternative framework for dealing with the tradeoffs that motivate the appeal to “moral hazard,” which we call “risk-response feedback.”

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BACKGROUND: Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are the preferred class of medications for prevention of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation unless contraindications exist. Five large, international, randomized, controlled trials of NOACs versus either warfarin or aspirin have been completed to date. DESIGN: COMBINE AF incorporates de-identified individual patient data from 77,282 patients with atrial fibrillation at risk for stroke randomized to NOAC, warfarin, or aspirin from 5 pivotal randomized controlled trials. All patients randomized in the constituent trials are included. Variables common to ≥3 of the constituent trials are included in the master database. Individual trial data sets from the 4 coordinating centers were combined at the Duke Clinical Research Institute. The final database will be securely shared with the 4 academic coordinating centers. The combined master database will be used to perform statistical analyses aimed at better understanding underlying risk factors and outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants, with a special focus on patient subgroups and uncommon outcomes. The initial analysis from COMBINE AF will be a network meta-analysis investigating the relative efficacy and safety of pooled higher-dose NOACs versus pooled lower-dose NOACs versus warfarin with respect to multiple time-to-event efficacy and safety outcomes. COMBINE AF is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020178771). CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, COMBINE AF provides a rich and robust database consisting of individual patient data and will offer opportunities to investigate oral anticoagulants across many patient subgroups. Data sharing and collaboration across academic institutions and investigators will serve as overarching themes.

This article identifies diverse rationales to call for anticipatory governance of solar geoengineering, in light of a climate crisis. In focusing on governance rationales, we step back from proliferating debates in the literature on ‘how, when, whom, and where’ to govern, to address the important prior question of why govern solar geoengineering in the first place: to restrict or enable its further consideration? We link these opposing rationales to contrasting underlying visions of a future impacted by climate change. These visions see the future as either more or less threatening, depending upon whether it includes the possible future use of solar geoengineering. Our analysis links these contrasting visions and governance rationales to existing governance proposals in the literature. In doing so, we illustratewhy some proposals differ so significantly, while also showing that similar-sounding proposals may emanate from quite distinct rationales and thus advance different ends, depending upon how they are designed in practice.

The transpiration cycle in trees is powered by a negative water potential generated within the leaves, which pumps water up a dense array of xylem conduits. Synthetic trees can mimic this transpiration cycle, but have been confined to pumping water across a single microcapillary or microfluidic channels. Here, we fabricated tall synthetic trees where water ascends up an array of large diameter conduits, to enable transpiration at the same macroscopic scale as natural trees. An array of 19 tubes of millimetric diameter were embedded inside of a nanoporous ceramic disk on one end, while their free end was submerged in a water reservoir. After saturating the synthetic tree by boiling it underwater, water can flow continuously up the tubes even when the ceramic disk was elevated over 3 m above the reservoir. A theory is developed to reveal two distinct modes of transpiration: an evaporation-limited regime and a flow-limited regime.

This article has been co-published in Kardiologia Polska, 2018, vol.76, issue 10, pages: 1383-1415. DOI: 10.5603/KP.2018.0203Bertil Lindahl is part of the Executive Group on behalf of the Joint European Society of Cardiology (ESC)/American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA)/World Heart Federation (WHF) Task Force for the Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction.

Background Cardiovascular intensive care units ( CICUs ) have evolved from coronary care wards into distinct units for critically ill patients with primary cardiac diseases, often suffering from illnesses that cross multiple disciplines. Mounting evidence has demonstrated improved survival with the incorporation of dedicated CICU providers with expertise in critical care medicine ( CCM ). This is the first study to systematically survey dual certified physicians in order to assess the relevance of CCM training to contemporary CICU care. Methods and Results Utilizing American Board of Internal Medicine data through 2014, 397 eligible physicians had obtained initial certification in both cardiovascular disease and CCM . A survey to delineate the role of critical care training in the CICU was provided to these physicians. Among those surveyed, 120 physicians (30%) responded. Dual certified physicians reported frequent use of their CCM skills in the CICU , highlighting ventilator management, multiorgan dysfunction management, end-of-life care, and airway management. The majority (85%) cited these skills as the reason CCM training should be prioritized by future CICU providers. Few (17%) agreed that general cardiology fellowship alone is currently sufficient to care for patients in the modern CICU . Furthermore, there was a consensus that there is an unmet need for cardiologists trained in CCM (70%) and that CICU s should adopt a level system similar to trauma centers (61%). Conclusions Citing specific skills acquired during CCM training, dual certified critical care cardiologists reported that their additional critical care experience was necessary in their practice to effectively deliver care in the modern CICU .

Solar radiation management (SRM) technologies would reflect a small amount of incoming solar radiation back into space before the radiation can warm the planet. Although SRM may emerge as a useful component of a global response to climate change, there is also good reason for caution. In June 2017, the Academic Working Group on Climate Engineering Governance released a policy report, “Governing Solar Radiation Management”, which developed a set of objectives to govern SRM in the near-term future: (1) keep mitigation and adaptation first; (2) thoroughly and transparently evaluate risks, burdens, and benefits; (3) enable responsible knowledge creation; and (4) ensure robust governance before any consideration of deployment. To advance the governance objectives identified above, the working group developed twelve recommendations, grouped into three clusters: (1) create politically legitimate deliberative bodies; (2) leverage existing institutions; and (3) make research transparent and accountable. This communication discusses the rationale behind each cluster and elaborates on a subset of the recommendations from each cluster.

Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Program

In 1962, the United States conducted its final atmospheric nuclear test. Since 1962, the American national laboratories have attempted to simulate the results observed in exo-atmospheric testing in order to understand and explain how high-energy electrons became trapped further across the Earth s magnetic field than expected. In this thesis, my research will use a computer modeling program designed by the late Dr. Dennis Hewett for LLNL in 1972 to simulate the debris from a High Altitude Nuclear Explosion (HANE). The objective of this research is to examine two physical phenomena, collisionless shocks driven by multiple ion species and charge exchange, to determine their independent relevance to the final spatial disposition of fission fragments from a HANE. This research used the ZMR code, a one-dimensional, particle-in-cell plasma code to simulate the movement of the debris ions produced by the HANE. The debris ions are assumed to be the source of the measured high-energy electrons due to subsequent beta-decay. These high-energy electrons can damage the satellite network vital to the Department of Defense and security of the nation.

A contentious debate has been under way for decades over whether prostitution is inherently harmful to women, or a job that can be freely chosen. This debate has become particularly heated around one subject: human trafficking for sexual purposes. In recent decades human trafficking has manifested in many forms and affected countless victims. There has also been a rise in films and other media devoted to human trafficking, especially sex trafficking, some of which have been the subject of academic analysis. This study seeks to shed light on this debate and the related discourses, and contribute to this growing field of scholarship. Two documentaries about women who have either been smuggled voluntarily or trafficked from Nigeria to different parts of Europe are analyzed. A narrative analysis is applied to gain insights into how these women perceive and integrate the, sometimes traumatic, experiences they have had. The study concludes that structure seems to dominate or negate agency in these cases, and that the distinctions of voluntary and forced prostitution can obscure a complex reality, which can further marginalize victims of exploitation.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate the role of secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2)-IIA in cardiovascular disease. BACKGROUND: Higher circulating levels of sPLA2-IIA mass or sPLA2 enzyme activity have been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events. However, it is not clear if this association is causal. A recent phase III clinical trial of an sPLA2 inhibitor (varespladib) was stopped prematurely for lack of efficacy. METHODS: We conducted a Mendelian randomization meta-analysis of 19 general population studies (8,021 incident, 7,513 prevalent major vascular events [MVE] in 74,683 individuals) and 10 acute coronary syndrome (ACS) cohorts (2,520 recurrent MVE in 18,355 individuals) using rs11573156, a variant in PLA2G2A encoding the sPLA2-IIA isoenzyme, as an instrumental variable. RESULTS: PLA2G2A rs11573156 C allele associated with lower circulating sPLA2-IIA mass (38% to 44%) and sPLA2 enzyme activity (3% to 23%) per C allele. The odds ratio (OR) for MVE per rs11573156 C allele was 1.02 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98 to 1.06) in general populations and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.90 to 1.03) in ACS cohorts. In the general population studies, the OR derived from the genetic instrumental variable analysis for MVE for a 1-log unit lower sPLA2-IIA mass was 1.04 (95% CI: 0.96 to 1.13), and differed from the non-genetic observational estimate (OR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.61 to 0.79). In the ACS cohorts, both the genetic instrumental variable and observational ORs showed a null association with MVE. Instrumental variable analysis failed to show associations between sPLA2 enzyme activity and MVE. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing sPLA2-IIA mass is unlikely to be a useful therapeutic goal for preventing cardiovascular events.

Objectives This study sought to investigate the role of secretory phospholipase A(2) (sPLA(2))-IIA in cardiovascular disease. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanBackground Higher circulating levels of sPLA(2)-IIA mass or sPLA(2) enzyme activity have been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events. However, it is not clear if this association is causal. A recent phase III clinical trial of an sPLA(2) inhibitor (varespladib) was stopped prematurely for lack of efficacy. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanMethods We conducted a Mendelian randomization meta-analysis of 19 general population studies (8,021 incident, 7,513 prevalent major vascular events [MVE] in 74,683 individuals) and 10 acute coronary syndrome (ACS) cohorts (2,520 recurrent MVE in 18,355 individuals) using rs11573156, a variant in PLA2G2A encoding the sPLA(2)-IIA isoenzyme, as an instrumental variable. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanResults PLA2G2A rs11573156 C allele associated with lower circulating sPLA(2)-IIA mass (38% to 44%) and sPLA(2) enzyme activity (3% to 23%) per C allele. The odds ratio (OR) for MVE per rs11573156 C allele was 1.02 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98 to 1.06) in general populations and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.90 to 1.03) in ACS cohorts. In the general population studies, the OR derived from the genetic instrumental variable analysis for MVE for a 1-log unit lower sPLA(2)-IIA mass was 1.04 (95% CI: 0.96 to 1.13), and differed from the non-genetic observational estimate (OR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.61 to 0.79). In the ACS cohorts, both the genetic instrumental variable and observational ORs showed a null association with MVE. Instrumental variable analysis failed to show associations between sPLA2 enzyme activity and MVE. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanConclusions Reducing sPLA(2)-IIA mass is unlikely to be a useful therapeutic goal for preventing cardiovascular events., Funding Agencies|BHG programme grant|RG/10/12/28456|UK Medical Research Council (Population Health Scientist Fellowship)|G0802432|British Heart Foundation|RG 10/12/28456RG008/014RG/10/001/27643PG07/133/24260FS 08/ 048/25628|National Institute of Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre||Dutch Kidney Foundation|E033|Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (NWO VENI)|916.761.70|Dutch Inter University Cardiology Institute Netherlands (ICIN)||Canada Research Chair in Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology||Europe Against Cancer Programme of the European Commission (SANCO), Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch Cancer Society|||EU-LSHM-CT-2006037697

This report analyzes contract spending on services by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) between the years 1990-2011. It does so using data from the Federal Procurement Data system (FPDS) in conjunction with other sources. It first describes the trends in overall DoD service contracting, breaking the dollars obligated down by DoD component (Army, Air Force Navy, and civilian agencies), by service area, by level of competition, by funding mechanism and by contract vehicle. It also presents the top 20 service defense contractors and the breakdown of service contract obligations by small, medium, and large companies. Next, the report analyzes contract spending in six service areas: Professional Administrative and Management Services (PAMS), Information and Communications Technologies (ICT), Research and Development (R&D), Facilities-Related Services and Construction (FRS&C), Equipment-Related Services (ERS), and Medical Services (MED). For each of these areas, the report presents how contract obligations are broken down by DoD component, by level of competition, by funding mechanism, and by contract vehicle. It also presents the top 20 contractors for each service area and the obligated dollars by small, medium, and large contractors.

The first goal of this research is to analyze trends in Department of Defense (DoD) services contract actions from 1990-2011 for the DoD overall and for individual DoD components (Army, Navy, Air Force, and other); by area of defense services contract action; and by level of competition, type of contract, and type of funding mechanism. The second goal is to analyze the composition of the industrial base supporting DoD service contracts by using a breakdown of the defense services industrial base into small, medium, and large companies, and by identifying the top 20 defense services companies (by total dollars obligated) for the DoD overall and for each DoD component (Army, Navy, Air Force, and other). Six categories of services serve as the foundation for this analysis: Information and communications technology (ICT) services; Professional, administrative, and management services (PAMS); Research and development (R&D) Equipment-related services (ERS); Facility-related services and construction (FRS&C) services; and Medical services. The Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS) is the primary data source for this project, supplemented with the Bloomberg government contract database and verified with the USASpending.gov query tool. This annotated brief presents the preliminary findings of this research, and covers only the years of 2000-2011 for the DoD overall. The presentation includes 14 briefing charts., Presented at the Naval Postgraduate School Annual Acquisition Research Symposium (9th) held in Monterey, CA on 16-17 May 2012. Published in the Proceedings of the Naval Postgraduate School Annual Acquisition Research Symposium (9th), v2 p43-58, 2012.

Stefan James (Department of Medical Sciences, Cardiology & UCR-Uppsala Clinical Research center, Uppsala Univerity, Sweden) contributed to this study.

BACKGROUND: Vorapaxar inhibits platelet activation by antagonising thrombin-mediated activation of the protease-activated receptor 1 on human platelets. The effect of adding other antiplatelet drugs to aspirin for long-term secondary prevention of thrombotic events in stable patients with previous myocardial infarction is uncertain. We tested this effect in a subgroup of patients from the Thrombin Receptor Antagonist in Secondary Prevention of Atherothrombotic Ischemic Events (TRA 2°P)-TIMI 50 trial. METHODS: In TRA 2°P-TIMI 50--a randomised, placebo-controlled, parallel trial--we randomly assigned patients with a history of atherothrombosis to receive vorapaxar (2·5 mg daily) or matching placebo in a 1:1 ratio. Patients, and those giving treatment, assessing outcomes, and analysing results were masked to treatment allocation. Patients with a qualifying myocardial infarction within the previous 2 weeks to 12 months were analysed as a pre-defined subgroup. The primary efficacy endpoint was cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, analysed by intention to treat. We analysed events by Kaplan-Meier analysis and compared groups with a Cox proportional hazard model. TRA 2°P-TIMI 50 is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00526474). FINDINGS: 17,779 of 26,449 patients had a qualifying myocardial infarction and were assigned treatment (8898 to vorapaxar and 8881 to placebo). Median follow-up was 2·5 years (IQR 2·0-2·9). Cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke occurred in 610 of 8898 patients in the vorapaxar group and 750 of 8881 in the placebo group (3-year Kaplan-Meier estimates 8·1%vs 9·7%, HR 0·80, 95% CI 0·72-0·89; p<0·0001). Moderate or severe bleeding was more common in the vorapaxar group versus the placebo group (241/8880 [3·4%, 3-year Kaplan-Meier estimate] vs 151/8849 [2·1%, 3-year Kaplan-Meier estimate], HR 1·61, 95% CI 1·31-1·97; p<0·0001). Intracranial haemorrhage occurred in 43 of 8880 patients (0·6%, 3-year Kaplan-Meier estimate

Thrombin potently activates platelets through the protease-activated receptor PAR-1. Vorapaxar is a novel antiplatelet agent that selectively inhibits the cellular actions of thrombin through antagonism of PAR-1. We randomly assigned 26,449 patients who had a history of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or peripheral arterial disease to receive vorapaxar (2.5 mg daily) or matching placebo and followed them for a median of 30 months. The primary efficacy end point was the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke. After 2 years, the data and safety monitoring board recommended discontinuation of the study treatment in patients with a history of stroke owing to the risk of intracranial hemorrhage. At 3 years, the primary end point had occurred in 1028 patients (9.3%) in the vorapaxar group and in 1176 patients (10.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio for the vorapaxar group, 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 0.94; P<0.001). Cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or recurrent ischemia leading to revascularization occurred in 1259 patients (11.2%) in the vorapaxar group and 1417 patients (12.4%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.95; P=0.001). Moderate or severe bleeding occurred in 4.2% of patients who received vorapaxar and 2.5% of those who received placebo (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.43 to 1.93; P<0.001). There was an increase in the rate of intracranial hemorrhage in the vorapaxar group (1.0%, vs. 0.5% in the placebo group; P<0.001). Inhibition of PAR-1 with vorapaxar reduced the risk of cardiovascular death or ischemic events in patients with stable atherosclerosis who were receiving standard therapy. However, it increased the risk of moderate or severe bleeding, including intracranial hemorrhage. (Funded by Merck; TRA 2P-TIMI 50 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00526474.).

http://archive.org/details/aninvestigationi1094512392, U.S. Navy (U.S.N.) authors.

BACKGROUND: Thrombin potently activates platelets through the protease-activated receptor PAR-1. Vorapaxar is a novel antiplatelet agent that selectively inhibits the cellular actions of thrombin through antagonism of PAR-1.METHODS: We randomly assigned 26,449 patients who had a history of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or peripheral arterial disease to receive vorapaxar (2.5 mg daily) or matching placebo and followed them for a median of 30 months. The primary efficacy end point was the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke. After 2 years, the data and safety monitoring board recommended discontinuation of the study treatment in patients with a history of stroke owing to the risk of intracranial hemorrhage.RESULTS: At 3 years, the primary end point had occurred in 1028 patients (9.3%) in the vorapaxar group and in 1176 patients (10.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio for the vorapaxar group, 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 0.94; P<0.001). Cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or recurrent ischemia leading to revascularization occurred in 1259 patients (11.2%) in the vorapaxar group and 1417 patients (12.4%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.95; P=0.001). Moderate or severe bleeding occurred in 4.2% of patients who received vorapaxar and 2.5% of those who received placebo (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.43 to 1.93; P<0.001). There was an increase in the rate of intracranial hemorrhage in the vorapaxar group (1.0%, vs. 0.5% in the placebo group; P<0.001).CONCLUSIONS: Inhibition of PAR-1 with vorapaxar reduced the risk of cardiovascular death or ischemic events in patients with stable atherosclerosis who were receiving standard therapy. However, it increased the risk of moderate or severe bleeding, including intracranial hemorrhage. (Funded by Merck; TRA 2P-TIMI 50 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00526474.).

Cost and time overruns in Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) have become a high-profile problem attracting the interest of Congress, government, and watchdog groups. According to the GAO, the 98 MDAPs from FY2010 collectively ran $402 billion over budget and were an average of 22 months behind schedule since their first full estimate. President Obama's memorandum on government contracting of 4 March 2009 also highlighted this issue. This paper presents findings of research on the root causes of cost and schedule delays for 92 MDAPs active in 2010 and 12 cancelled programs. The results do not establish causality but they do indicate multiple notable correlations. Inaccurate cost estimates are responsible for the strongest correlation with net cost growth changes and are associated with 40% of the accumulated cost overruns. In addition, the start year has little impact on the compound annual growth rate of cost overruns. This suggests that relatively better performance of newer programs may prove illusionary as programs age. Finally, fixed price contracts appear to have relatively smaller overruns, although this may tell us more about which programs are likely to receive fixed price contracts rather than what effect fixed price contracts may have on program performance., Presented at the Naval Postgraduate School's 8th Annual Acquisition Research Symposium, 10-12 May 2011, Seaside, CA. U.S. Government or Federal Rights License MBA Professional Report.

Objective-To investigate growth differentiation factor (GDF)-15 at hospital discharge for assessment of the risk of death, recurrent myocardial infarction (MI), and congestive heart failure, and to determination of whether these risks can be modified by statins. Methods and Results-GDF-15 is a transforming growth factor-beta-related cytokine induced in response to tissue injury. GDF-15 concentration is associated with all-cause mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We measured GDF-15 in 3501 patients after ACS, treated with moderate or intensive statin therapy in PROVE IT-TIMI 22. By using established cutoff points, GDF-15 (< 1200, 1200-1800, and > 1800 ng/L) was associated with 2-year risk of death or MI (5.7%, 8.1%, and 15.1%, respectively; P < 0.001), death (P < 0.001), MI (P < 0.001), and congestive heart failure (P < 0.001). After adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, smoking, MI, qualifying event, renal function, B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, GDF-15 was associated with the risk of death or MI (adjusted hazard ratio per ln increase GDF-15, 2.1 [95% CI, 1.6 to 2.9]; P < 0.001), death (P < 0.001), MI (P < 0.001), and congestive heart failure (P < 0.001). There was no significant interaction between GDF-15 and intensive statin therapy for the risk of death or MI (P = 0.24 for the interaction). Conclusion-GDF-15 is associated with recurrent events after ACS, independent of clinical predictors, B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. This finding supports GDF-15 as a prognostic marker in ACS and investigation of other therapies that modify this risk.

Cost and time overruns in Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) have become a high-profile problem attracting the interest of Congress, government, and watchdog groups. According to the GAO, the 98 MDAPs from FY2010 collectively ran $402 billion over budget and were an average of 22 months behind schedule since their first full estimate. President Obama''s memorandum on government contracting of 4 March 2009 also highlighted this issue. This paper presents findings of research on the root causes of cost and schedule delays for 92 MDAPs active in 2010 and 12 cancelled programs. The results do not establish causality but they do indicate multiple notable correlations. Inaccurate cost estimates are responsible for the strongest correlation with net cost growth changes and are associated with 40% of the accumulated cost overruns. In addition, the start year has little impact on the compound annual growth rate of cost overruns. This suggests that relatively better performance of newer programs may prove illusionary as programs age. Finally, fixed price contracts appear to have relatively smaller overruns, although this may tell us more about which programs are likely to receive fixed price contracts rather than what effect fixed price contracts may have on program performance.

Background The protease-activated receptor 1 (PAR-1), the main platelet receptor for thrombin, represents a novel target for treatment of arterial thrombosis, and SCH 530348 is an orally active, selective, competitive PAR-1 antagonist. We designed TRA.CER to evaluate the efficacy and safety of SCH 530348 compared with placebo in addition to standard of care in patients with non-ST-segment elevation (NSTE) acute coronary syndromes (ACS) and high-risk features. Trial design TRA.CER is a prospective, randomized, double-blind, multicenter, phase III trial with an original estimated sample size of 10,000 subjects. Our primary objective is to demonstrate that SCH 530348 in addition to standard of care will reduce the incidence of the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, recurrent ischemia with rehospitalization, and urgent coronary revascularization compared with standard of care alone. Our key secondary objective is to determine whether SCH 530348 will reduce the composite of cardiovascular death, MI, or stroke compared with standard of care alone. Secondary objectives related to safety are the composite of moderate and severe GUSTO bleeding and clinically significant TIMI bleeding. The trial will continue until a predetermined minimum number of centrally adjudicated primary and key secondary end point events have occurred and all subjects have participated in the study for at least I year. The TRA.CER trial is part of the large phase III SCH 530348 development program that includes a concomitant evaluation in secondary prevention. Conclusion TRA.CER will define efficacy and safety of the novel platelet PAR-1 inhibitor SCH 530348 in the treatment of high-risk patients with NSTE ACS in the setting of current treatment strategies.

Joan Flasch Artists' Book Collection