Search

This study employs the estimation of aggregate import demand under foreign exchange constraints in Ethiopia, utilizing annual time series data from 1985 to 2021. The regression analysis is conducted using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to investigate the impact of the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves on aggregate import demand in Ethiopia. The estimation results indicate that, in the long run, all the variables, i.e., foreign exchange reserve, the relative price of imports, real income, volatility of the exchange rate, money supply, and policy dummy, significantly determine the behavior of aggregate imports over the reference period. The findings also show that, in the long run, foreign exchange reserve, real income, and the exchange rate positively affect the demand for imports in Ethiopia. Meanwhile, a positive shock in relative import price and money supply negatively affects import demand in Ethiopia. Thus, the price and income elasticity estimates have correct signs and are statistically significant. The variables included in the model strongly affect import demand in both the short and long run. Finally, policymakers aiming to significantly influence import demand should focus on effective management of these variables, as they strongly affect import volume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We study the effectiveness of helicopter money in the form of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) • We compare traditional fiscal and monetary stimulus, quantitative easing, and the issuance of a CBDC credited to households or firms, by means of a stock-flow consistent model of a growing open economy. • Issuing a CBDC by expanding the central bank's balance sheet can have a durable impact on GDP and it allows for the activation of a new transmission channel. • A CBDC might reduce the demand for bank deposits and, even more crucially, for bank loans, thus creating challenges for financial stability. We study the effectiveness of helicopter money, once a thought experiment that is now a feasible option given new digital technologies. We consider the effects of central bank digital currencies (CBDC) from a theoretical point of view, by means of a stock-flow consistent model of a growing open economy. We compare the effectiveness of this tool with that of traditional fiscal and monetary policies. We find that issuing a CBDC by expanding the central bank's balance sheet can have a durable impact on GDP and crucially, it allows for the activation of a new transmission channel, which depends on the sensitivity of investment and of the interest rate to firms' leverage. But it might reduce the demand for bank deposits, and even more crucially for bank loans, thus creating challenges for financial stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to compare the effectiveness of China's price- and quantity-based monetary policy tools over time, we develop a structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameter and factor augmentation (TVP-FA-S-VAR model) to analyze the response of output gap to monetary policy shocks. We find that price-based regulation becomes increasingly effective as China's interest rate liberalization proceeds, while the effects of broad money supply on output have been diminishing. Additionally, as it becomes harder to measure the effectiveness of quantity-based regulation, China's central bank has been more prudent to rely on quantitative intermediaries. Moreover, as much as 40% residual information of the Taylor rule will be omitted using price-based intermediaries, while factor augmentation fails to increase the explanatory power of quantitative intermediaries significantly. The correlation between quantitative intermediaries and the real economy has been weakening, so that the quantity-based monetary policy tools are no longer suitable for government intervention in China. We develop a structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameter and factor augmentation (TVP-FA-S-VAR model) to analyze the response of output gap to monetary policy shocks. We find that price-based regulation becomes increasingly effective as China's interest rate liberalization proceeds, while the effects of broad money supply on output have been diminishing. China's central bank has been more prudent to rely on quantitative intermediaries. As much as 40% residual information of the Taylor rule will be omitted using price-based intermediaries, while factor augmentation fails to increase the explanatory power of quantitative intermediaries significantly. The correlation between quantitative intermediaries and the real economy has been weakening, so that the quantity-based monetary policy tools are no longer suitable for government intervention in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Domestic and international risk shocks have greatly increased the demand for systemic risk management in China. This paper estimates China's multi-layer financial network based on multiple financial relationships among banks, assets, and firms, using China's banking system data in 2021. An improved PageRank algorithm is proposed to identify systemically important banks and other economic sectors, and a stress test is conducted. This study finds that China's multi-layer financial network is sparse, and the distribution of transactions across financial markets is uneven. Regulatory authorities should support economic recovery and adjust the money supply, while banks should differentiate competition and manage risks better. Based on the PageRank index, this paper assesses the systemic importance of large commercial banks from the perspective of network structure, emphasizing the role of banks' transaction behavior and market participation. Different industries and asset classes are also assessed, suggesting that increased attention should be paid to industry risks and regulatory oversight of bank investments. Finally, stress tests confirm that the improved PageRank algorithm is applicable within the multi-layer financial network, reinforcing the need for prudential supervision of the banking system and revealing that the degree of transaction concentration will affect the systemic importance of financial institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Central Bank, acting on behalf of the government, uses monetary policy to influence economic and financial activities in order to achieve price stability while also considering economic growth. The circulation of money supply in an economy is affected by monetary policy, which is reflected in the development of various economic and financial variables such as money supply, credit, exchange rates, and interest rates. This study analyzes the impact of inflation, interest rates, and e-money on money demand in Indonesia using a quantitative approach. The data used in this research are inflation, interest rates, e-money, and money demand from 2017 to 2022, sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia. The Error Correction Model (ECM) model is used for data analysis. The long-term ECM test results show that inflation has a significant negative effect on money demand, while interest rates do not have a significant effect on money demand. In the long term, the e-money variable has a significant positive effect on the demand for money. In the short term, however, inflation and interest rates do not affect the demand for money in Indonesia, while the e-money variable has a significant effect on the demand for money. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run relationship between money supply and inflation in Pakistan, utilizing annual data spanning from 1981 to 2021. The key objective is to assess the impact of monetary policy, specifically money supply, on inflation dynamics in the country. To achieve this, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is employed, which is suitable for analyzing cointegration among variables with mixed integration orders. The results reveal both short and long-run cointegration between inflation, money supply, unemployment, and interest rates. Notably, unemployment demonstrates a negative correlation with inflation, while money supply and interest rates exhibit a positive relationship. These findings underscore the importance of dedicated policy measures to manage inflation effectively. The paper concludes by recommending the establishment of a policy implementation body and collaboration between the government and the central bank to ensure financial stability and control inflation through well-calibrated monetary and fiscal policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In regard to the purpose of money use, economic theory provides a functionalist answer, while a dominant sociological view focuses on culture. However, Simmel noted the paradoxical nature of money in this respect. Money brings together both quantity and quality; therefore, it simultaneously has different potentialities for its usage. We conducted an exploratory factor analysis by using a representative sample (n = 2000) of the population in Austria to explore the potentialities of money usage. We found seven factors: freedom, community, status, institutional control, conflict, work-related control and household control. A discussion of the factors reveals the simultaneous, ambiguous existence of the qualitative and quantitative potentialities of the usage of money. We conclude that the ambiguity of money can only be described in all its contradictoriness by distinguishing between the concrete earmarking money for specific social purposes (Zelizer) and the potentially unspecific, open usability for alternative concrete or fictional purposes (Simmel). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the relationship between inflation and Iraq's currency supply. In order to better inform monetary policy, this research investigates the connection between money supply and inflation. The article aims to provide policymakers with a better understanding of the factors contributing to inflation in Iraq. This research incorporates an econometric analysis of data acquired from the Central Bank of Iraq and other sources. The data covers a period from 2011 to 2022. Inflation and money supply are the focus of the time series regression model shown here. Inflation in Iraq may be linked to the country's money supply, the results suggest. Rapid and immediate responses to changes in the money supply are characteristic of inflation. The research shows additional factors in Iraq's inflation besides government policies and currency rates. The results of this study provide substantial knowledge of the origins of Iraq's inflation. According to the results, regulating the money supply is essential for controlling inflation. The analysis also shows how important it is to have a broader view of inflation and its causes. This information helps build effective methods to stabilise the economy and sustain price stability in Iraq. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper theoretically examines the effect of an expansionary monetary policy on export quality and its ramifications on the aggregate employment of the unskilled workers in a competitive general equilibrium framework of a small open economy. Monetary policies are often pursued by the central bank of an economy to manage exchange rate fluctuations under a managed float regime, which may have adverse consequences for export-quality choices and thereby for export growth given the growing preference of buyers in richer nations for higher qualities of imports. Under optimal allocation of wealth over a portfolio of cash, domestic assets and foreign assets, we show that an increase in the domestic money supply affects the choice of export-quality through larger investment, capital formation and consequent endowment effect and through changes in the nominal exchange rate. Under less price-elastic demand for a non-traded good, export quality is upgraded when quality upgrading is relatively capital (than skill) intensive. The expansionary monetary policy may raise aggregate employment of unskilled workers due to larger investment and capital formation, but may lower it through changes in the quality of the export good. The overall effect is thus ambiguous. A larger initial size of bequests has a similar effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Money supply adapts to the demand of credit and has a crucial impact in determining production levels. However, at the same time, under certain conditions the issuance of money may also boost inflation. In this article, with the help of Shaikh's 'classical theory', we explain the main reasons for the recent hyperinflation experienced in Venezuela. On the supply side, we analyze the context of loss of competitiveness due to the overvaluation of the national currency. On the other hand, we explore how the credit to the oil company (PDVSA) has led to an exponential growth in aggregate demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The observations made in this study were used to evaluate the diagnostic stability of the Philippine Central Bank's selected monetary policy targets, namely, the Gross Domestic Product and inflation, with money supply, credits, interest rates, and exchange rates, as independent variables, using the autoregressive distributed lag and error correction model analysis. The co-integrating behavior depicted that all p-values of less than the 5% significance level generated different behaviors. However, analysis of the Central Bank's performance showed that there were no unit roots at all (p > .05) that signified a strong indication of cointegration behavior. The diagnostic stability of the Philippine monetary policy implementation was established over the period from 1990 to 2022. Further, money in circulation caused increases in domestic prices, interest rates, and inflationary pressure, and ultimately affected GDP (ppp). Understanding cointegration behavior is an imperative implication for policy makers to observe and take into consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Banking sector credits have an important role in the functioning of the monetary transmission mechanism. Policies implemented to determine the money supply affect the credit channel and the real economy through monetary transmission. The sound functioning of the credit channel is closely related to the stable management and the level of development of the financial system. In this study, the relationship between commercial loans provided by the Turkish banking sector and employment is analyzed. The study utilizes monthly unemployment rates and commercial loans provided by the Turkish banking sector for the period 2015:M01-2023:M3. The stationarity levels of the variables are investigated with Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests. Granger Causality test and Toda Yamamoto method are used to determine whether there is causality between the variables and if there is a causality relationship, its direction. According to the results of causality analysis, it is concluded that there is no causality relationship between employment data and Turkish banking sector commercial loans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on inflation, notably exploring the concept of "Taxation without Legislation". It discusses inflation as a monetary phenomenon, its causes including budget deficits and money printing, and its impact on government finances. It highlights a significant growth disparity between liquidity and the national product, suggesting a potential engineered poverty affecting the majority of the population.

Purpose: To study the key determinants of chronically high inflation in Iran. Design/methodology/approach: Relying on annual data from 1978 to 2019, the authors employ an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Error Correction Model (ECM) to study the inflationary effects of monetary and fiscal policies as well as exchange rate swings and sanctions intensification. Findings: The authors find that increase in money supply, depreciation of nominal exchange rate, increase in fiscal deficit and intensification of sanctions are among the key drivers of inflation in Iran. Their impact is profound in the long run, but in the short run only money supply and currency depreciation are significant. Also, when exploring the inflation in different components of Consumer Price Index (CPI), we find robust long- and short-run effects from money supply and exchange rate, while the effects of fiscal deficit and sanctions vary across different components. Originality/value: The authors contribute to the literature by setting apart the long-vs short-run effects of key variables on inflation in Iran. The authors also employ improved measures of fiscal deficit and sanctions that are shown to be of significance in the long run. Lastly, the authors go beyond the aggregate index and examine the variations in different CPI components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study sought to reveal the effects of Turkish Lira and US dollar exchange rate (EXR), money supply (M2) on agricultural commodity producers' prices. The direction and the size of the relationship among the data was estimated using VECM Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results reveal that the causality runs from M2 to agricultural price (AP) in the short run, but not from AP to M2. In the long run the effect of EXR is more than M2. The coefficient of error correction term in the agricultural price equation is 0.0726 and is statistically significant at 1%. Referring to it, all of the system instability can be adjusted approximately in 14 months. This research shows that the exchange rate (EXR) and money supply (M2) have important long-run effects on agricultural prices (AP). In order to control agricultural prices, it is necessary to follow these macro variables closely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large-scale loss of ecosystem assets around the world, and the resultant reduction in the provision of nature's benefits to people, underscores the urgent need for better metrics of ecological performance as well as their integration into decision-making. Gross ecosystem product (GEP) is a measure of the aggregate monetary value of final ecosystem-related goods and services in a specific area and for a given accounting period. GEP accounting captures the use of many ecosystem services in production processes across the economy, which are then valued in terms of their benefits to society. GEP has five key elements that make it transparent, trackable, and readily understandable: (1) a focus on nature's contributions to people; (2) the measurement of ecosystem assets as stocks and ecosystem services as flows; (3) the quantification of ecosystem service use; (4) an understanding of ecosystem service supply chains through value realization; and (5) the disaggregation of benefits across groups. Correspondingly, a series of innovative policies based on GEP have been designed and implemented in China. The theoretical and practical lessons provided by these experiences can support continued policy innovation for green and inclusive development around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lack of direct and indirect instruments and the features of the Cuban monetary and financial environment have implicated the need to base the monetary policy on the use of nominal anchors for price stabilization. This article has the objective of analyzing the relevance of the official exchange rate, the money supply, and the regulated prices as nominal anchors since the economic system reformation of the early 1990s. With this objective in mind, the analysis provided by the article is divided into two sections. In the first, the use of the main nominal anchors in the macroeconomic stabilization carried out in the period 1990–2010 is evaluated. In the second, the factors that explain the loss of the main nominal anchors in the period 2011–2022 are examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, most low-income countries (LICs) have been remarkably successful in reducing inflation to single-digit levels, and many LICS are engaged in reforms to make their monetary policy frameworks more systematic, transparent, and forward-looking, often with technical support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). To inform those initiatives, our paper provides new empirical evidence about how the characteristics of the monetary policy framework affects the propagation of shocks in LICS. First, we analyze a cross-country panel dataset of 79 LICs over the period 1990 to 2015 to assess the impact of external shocks on real GDP growth, and we find highly significant differences between LICs where the central bank targets monetary aggregates or inflation compared to LICs that use the nominal exchange rates as the main nominal anchor. Second, we use difference-in-difference methods to assess the evolution of economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period from 1986 to 1994, and we find highly significant differences between 9 countries in the Central African Franc (CFA) zone compared to a control group of 12 other SSA countries. Our findings show that central banks in LICs can face policy tradeoffs similar to those which have been highlighted for more advanced economies, and our analysis underscores the key role of the monetary policy framework in fostering price stability and sustained economic growth in LICs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to show the response of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to monetary policy (represented by money supply and interest rate) and fiscal policy (represented by tax revenues) in Nigeria during the period (1990–2021). The autoregressive distributed lag approach is employed to estimate long‐run relationship among variables. The results indicate that there is cointegrating long‐run relationship among the study variables. The study provides empirical evidence showing that an increase in the percentage of money supply to gross domestic product (GDP) by (0.971%) leads to a decrease in the percentage of FDI inflows to GDP by (0.975%), an increase in the percentage of tax revenues to GDP by (4.256%) leads to a decrease in the percentage of FDI inflows to GDP by (0.975%), an increase in interest rate by (1.164%) leads to decrease in the percentage of FDI inflows to GDP by (0.975%), and an increase in inflation rate by (0.329%) leads to increase in the percentage of FDI inflows to GDP by (0.905%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of non-cash payments is predicted to have an effect on real money demand, not only in Indonesia. The use of electronic money in Indonesia itself continues to increase especially in the covid-19 pandemic and it supported by technological developments. The purpose of this study was to analyse the effect of non-cash payments on real money demand in Indonesia. The method used is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using secondary data from Januari 2019 to December 2022. The independent variable is the amount of money circulated by Bank Indonesia, and the independent variables used are the value of debit / ATM card transactions, credit cards, and e -money. The results indicate that in the long run debit cards and emoney have a significant negative effect on money supply, while credit cards have positive effect on money supply but it’s not significan. While in the short term, all variables debit cards, credit cards and e-money are not significant on money supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, it is aimed to investigate the relationship between Bitcoin prices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU), money supply (M3), and inflation using the ARDL bounds test and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests. In this context, the short- and longterm relationship between the mentioned variables was carried out for the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries by using monthly data between August 2010 and December 2021. As a result of empirical analysis, it has been found that China's EPU index negatively affects Bitcoin in the long and short term. For India, the effect of the EPU index on the Bitcoin price in the long run is negative; no short-term effects were found. In Russia and Brazil, the EPU index was not found to be effective on Bitcoin. In the BRIC countries, the effect of inflation on Bitcoin is positive in the long run. The impact of M3 on Bitcoin turned out to be positive for India in the short term. Finally, according to the causality results, there is unidirectional causality from inflation to Bitcoin in India and Brazil. For China, from inflation to Bitcoin, there is a causal relationship between Bitcoin and economic policy uncertainty. The findings will contribute to Bitcoin investors and policy makers to take initiatives and develop regulations regarding Bitcoin by considering the effects of M3, inflation and EPU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study contributes to the extant literature by assessing how financial and human developments moderate the incidence of vulnerable female employment on female labour force participation in Cameroon for the period 1987 to 2020 using the generalised least squares (GLS) estimation approach. It is apparent from the findings that human development in the perspective of the human development index (HDI) and broad money supply are necessary and sufficient conditions to moderate vulnerable female employment for female labour force participation. Accordingly, HDI thresholds of between 0.591 and 0.634 are needed to reverse the negative incidence of female vulnerable employment on female labour force participation. Furthermore, a threshold of 30.294 (% of GDP) of broad money supply is also needed to reverse the negative incidence of vulnerable female employment on female labour force participation. Other implications for policy are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to study, by means of an empirical approach, how monetary policy might affect the distribution of individual income. Design/methodology/approach: After describing the channels through which monetary policy could impinge on income distribution, the authors carry out a panel analysis of 62 countries that control their monetary policy for the period 1996–2015. Findings: Using two possible proxy variables for monetary policy (the monetary aggregate M3 and the real interest rates), the results reveal a significant positive relationship between real interest rates and income inequality measured through the market Gini coefficient and polarization ratios. The findings suggest that central bankers should be more aware of the redistributive effects of monetary policy. Research limitations/implications: It should be mentioned the major challenge of data limitation in the empirical investigation on the relationship between monetary policies and inequalities. Practical implications: The empirical evidence presented in this paper supports the premise that central bankers should not ignore the unintended redistributive consequences of their actions. In this regard, it is worth noting that if, in addition to price stability, central banks are also responsible for financial stability; the rationale behind central bank independence needs to be reconsidered. Originality/value: An outstanding feature of the paper is its sample size and the variety of countries included in the sample, which includes countries from all continents and with very different levels of economic development. Also, unlike papers based on forecasting modeling – e.g. Vector autoregression (VAR) or Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models, the study follows an explanatory approach, including not only monetary variables, but also a series of regressors that may have a meaningful and significant impact on inequality, according to a wide literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reviewing Marc Lavoie's comprehensive and well-structured discussion of open-economy macroeconomics allows us to revisit some key Post-Keynesian contributions and confirm their continued relevance to our understanding of international economic, financial and monetary relations. In the process Lavoie draws a consistently sharp contrast with standard-theory concepts and models, much of it organized around his elaboration of endogenous money in an international context and modern trade flows embedded in a highly globalized and financialized world economy which have little to do with comparative advantage. He thereby provides us with a conceptual road map for a meta-economic revolution which recognizes that the world economy has a growth dynamic all of its own rather than being just the sum of its parts, the two-hundred or so national economies connected to each other through their balance of payments and exchange rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper argues that Lucas (1972. 'Expectations and the Neutrality of Money.' Journal of Economic Theory 4 (2): 103–124) played a significant role in changing Friedman's theoretical propositions of the 1970s, and that his restatement of Friedman's (1968b. Dollars and Deficits. Inflation, Monetary Policy and the Balance of Payments. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall International) address on monetarism helped Friedman refine his argument, regarding both theory and policy-making, in a consistent manner. First, the adoption of the rational expectations hypothesis eventually led to a confrontation with Friedman, whose own approach to probability, based on subjective uncertainty, originated in his early joint work with Savage. Second, Lucas' modelling of the aggregate supply function undermined Friedman's earlier approach to the interrelationships between prices and quantities, but also helped remind Friedman of his Marshallian lineage. Lastly, Lucas's monetary cycle theory, based on an extraction signal problem that was quickly criticized and abandoned, compelled Friedman to give a firmer theoretical foundation to his monetary policy rule based on a constant rate of growth in money supply, thanks to his earlier approach of subjective uncertainty and personal probability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multivariate time series may be found in many fields of application such as economics, meteorology, and utilities. In economics, for example, one may record yearly money supply and real interest rate. These variables are modeled, and the parameters are estimated jointly to understand the nature of the dynamic relationships between variables and increase the precisions of the estimates. Better estimates can be achieved when the series are modeled jointly if there is information on one series contained in the others. Shaarawy has introduced an analytical approximate Bayesian methodology for the statistical inference of multivariate autoregressive moving average (VARMA) processes. The main objective of the current study is to investigate the numerical effectiveness of his proposed methodology in solving the estimation problems of multivariate VARMA processes by conducting a wide simulation study. Moreover, the study investigates the sensitivity of the numerical effectiveness of the proposed methodology with respect to the parameters' values and time series length. Simulation results showed that the methodology succeeded in estimating the parameters of VARMA models, for all parameters' values and time series lengths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examined the monetary policy shocks on financial market stability. This was achieved by means of econometric analysis. The study made use of quarterly time series macroeconomic data spanning from 2003Q2 to 2020Q4. The study used various econometric techniques such as stationarity, determining optimal lag length, cointegration analysis, estimating a vector error correction model, impulse response functions, forecast error variance decomposition and granger causality. The study found that, credit to nonfinancial sector responds negatively to its own innovations in the short and positively to its own innovations in the medium to long term. Meanwhile, credit to non-financial sector responds negatively to shocks in interest rates and money supply during the entire period. Similarly, the findings reveal that credit to nonfinancial sector responds negatively to systematic risks, that is, shocks induced by poor financial conduct. Systematic risks create disturbances in the financial market, and this hampers financial market stability. The response of credit to non-financial sector to shocks in the consumer price index is found to be positive in the short run although this trend becomes negative overtime. A uni-directional causation can be observed between credit to non-financial sector and global economic activity at the 5% significance level. Similarly, uni-directional causation can be seen between the 2008 global financial crisis dummy and credit to nonfinancial sector at the 1% statistical significance level. Interestingly, a bi-directional causality was established between broad money supply and credit to non-financial sector at the 1% and 5% statistical significance levels, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Russia, attempts at liberalizing state finances have long run up against the autocratic desire for control of the money supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing size of financial assets and the complexity of monetary patterns, countries around the world are gradually becoming more transparent in their monetary policies, using central bank monetary policy communication as a new type of monetary policy instrument. To measure central bank communication more accurately, this paper proposes a dynamic topic model, LDA-BP, based on branching processes, to construct the central bank communication index. At the same time, this paper does four things: it uses the constructed communication index as a proxy variable for the new monetary policy instrument; it builds a TVP-FAVAR model that can extract potential macroeconomic information from many variables, and its time-varying nature can better reflect the dynamic regulatory effect of monetary policy; it constructs a three-dimensional impulse response diagram; and it conducts a systematic analysis of macroeconomic impact. The experimental results of demonstrate its effectiveness on central bank monetary policy communication, as it captures timely information about conventional monetary policy instruments and immediately responds to changes in interest rates and money supply. All three monetary policy instruments are effective in smoothing output volatility, with monetary policy communication having a longer-term impact on the macroeconomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aimed to measure and analyze the impact of exchange rate shocks on some variables of the Iraqi economy during (1990-2022), because of the different effects of these shocks on the macroeconomic variables represented in money supply and agricultural output. Exchange rates are related to the policy chosen by the Central Bank of Iraq in managing the foreign exchange market and in the rentier nature of the Iraqi economy. The research uses a quantitative method in estimating the levels of the impact of exchange rate shocks on some economic variables. Several methods are conducted to achieve the goals, including the VAR model, variance decomposition and Impulse Response Functions. The results showed that exchange rate variance reached 100% in the same variable in the first year and decrease to 97% at the end of the period, and the same in the impulse response. It was an internal reaction that predicts what can be called the self-wave of an exchange rate rise, while both the variation and the response to the money supply shock in Iraq were dependent on the policy of the Central Bank and compatible with what was happening in the exchange rate, as the analysis of variance in the first year reached 38.98% for the same variable and 61% of it is due to the exchange rate. The results also showed that agricultural output was weakly affected by the exchange rate shock and money supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Islam allowed the selling transaction and prohibited the interest rate. So, can an economy function properly and efficiently without an interest rate? In a conventional economy the interest rate is used as a tool to stimulate investment, savings, money supply, exchange rate, and other economic variables. Thus, the concept of an interest rate is deeply embedded, and plays a vital role in an economy. It is not easy to remove this concept from an economy. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that an economy can function properly without the use of an interest rate by looking at the Palestinian economy. The Palestinian economy is a small, open, and semi-independent on the Israeli economy; it is thus unique in nature, where it is an economy that has no local currency. Palestinians use the New Israeli Shekel, US Dollar, Jordanian Dinar, and Euro. So, the Palestine Monetary Authority (PMA) place the role of monitoring the function of the banks, rather than the role of a Central Bank. This is of course due to the absence of a local currency. Therefore, the Palestinian Government has no monetary policy, i.e., monetary policy does not exist in the Palestinian economy. In addition, the concept of an interest rate to an individual Palestinian can be replaced by the concept of profit sharing. That is, a Palestinian can be driven by the concept of profit sharing rather than the concept of an interest rate. This paper concludes by using an empirical example that an economy can function without an interest rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 2008 and 2020 it has been a common practice among main central banks to keep the policy rate at or around zero. Apart from the expected macroeconomic consequences described partly by liquidity trap theories and structural macroeconomic models discussing the effectiveness of economic policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB), moderate interest rates have a notable influence on the portfolio optimising decisions of economic actors as well. The paper thus endeavours to reveal the wealth effect at the ZLB. Firstly, it compares how the various monetary aggregates and sectoral portfolios changed in the USA and in the eurozone between 2000 and 2020 contrasting the empirical facts with the theoretical assumptions and the experience of the Japan’s lost decade. Secondly, it examines the impact of the common monetary policy at the ZLB on the portfolio structure of individual countries of the eurozone. Hierarchical cluster analysis is applied using Eurostat sectoral financial asset statistics for selected years between 2005 and 2019. After choosing the best asset-to-GDP variables of sectoral financial asset holdings, countries are separated in different clusters based on Squared Euclidean distance and variables are standardised to z-scores. The analysis revealed that low interest rates cause significant portfolio rearrangements in the eurozone as a whole. Moreover, there is much greater diversity between individual member states originally than the way monetary policy influenced differences in the portfolio composition of economic sectors, even some convergence between core and periphery countries is observable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The model shows how "money matters" in determining stock prices. • Money supply influences the demand for stocks and positively affects their prices. • Overpricing or underpricing of stocks depends on the money supply in the economy. • Monetary policy affects stock prices by changing money supply. • Monetary policy may cause a disconnect between the stock market and the real economy. This study develops a simple model that shows how money matters in the determination of stock prices. When investors have different opinions on the stock's value and face market frictions, the money supply in an economy influences the demand for stocks and hence positively affects stock prices. Unlike the discounted-cash-flow model, the present model indicates that stock prices routinely depart from the fundamentals; overpricing or underpricing occurs depending on the amount of money in the economy. The results of the model suggest that stock prices fluctuate because of money supply changes and that monetary policy may cause a disconnect between the stock market and the real economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Nigerian government has borrowed for more than three decades to fund the growing fiscal deficit based on a weak tax revenue base. After the repayment of the country's foreign loans in 2006, the borrowing structure has been dominated by domestic loans. Between 2006 and 2020, domestic borrowing has grown by more than 800 per cent. This study examines the effect of domestic borrowing on Nigeria's macroeconomic variables from 1975 to 1980. The variables examined against the effect of domestic borrowing include economic growth, financial development (broad money supply and credit to private sector), external borrowing, interest rate, inflation, industrial production, private investment, trade openness and population growth rate. The study utilised the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model. The BVAR approach gives more realistic estimations than other VAR models as it considers prior information steady states during analysis. The study also adopts the Cholesky impulse response function and variance decomposition approach in the investigation. The study found a long-run equilibrium relationship between domestic borrowing and other macroeconomic variables. Also, domestic borrowing positively and significantly affected economic growth, industrial production and inflation. However, domestic borrowing negatively and significantly affects trade openness. Although the effect of domestic borrowing on the financial development variables (broad money supply and credit to the private sector) is negative, it is insignificant. The Bayesian VAR impulse response simulation demonstrates that the fiscal policy shock from domestic borrowing impacts the macroeconomic variables in line with the estimated regression results. As a follow-up, the variance decomposition results show that the decomposition of the shocks from government domestic borrowing is borne more by external borrowing, broad money supply and interest rate in the order of magnitude. The study recommends a restriction in monetary policy to benchmark and closely checkmate the aggressive spending from domestic borrowing. Also, the Nigerian government should improve investment in infrastructure to enhance private sector productivity and expand taxes revenue base to mitigate the reliance on borrowing as a source of funding for fiscal deficit. Furthermore, the country's productivity must be coordinated by the government to expand the sources of foreign exchange earnings to enhance stability in the country's external sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the correlation between Nigeria's government expenditure and inflation rate within a multivariate framework from 1970-2020. Data sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank were utilized for this investigation. To ascertain if there exists any relationship among the variables, in the long run, the ARDL test was used. From the result, a long-run relationship exists between the variables in the model; the influence of government expenditure on the inflation rate in the short and long run is negative and insignificant, while that of exchange rate on the inflation rate is positive and insignificant in both periods; the influence of money supply on inflation rate both in the short and long run is positive and significant. Consequently, the research proposed that more government expenditure should go into productive activities, thus, boosting aggregate production in the economy as this tends to reduce the level of inflation. Furthermore, the increase in money supply has to be incessantly moderated by the CBN as a result of its ability to cause needless inflationary pressures in the Nigerian economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the spread of silver as commodity money in the early modern world to mass-produced national currency in the nineteenth century, coins had a dual nature. They supplied facts about the past when they were investigated by antiquarians, and they required knowledge of materials and their supply when used as currency. This essay explores a little-researched borderland between economic history and history of science: the work of assayers and mint officials, where antiquarian and commercial interests merged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several central banks have leaned against the wind in the housing market by increasing the policy rate preemptively to prevent a bubble. Yet the empirical literature provides mixed results on the impact of short-term interest rates on house prices: the estimated semi-elasticities range from - 12 to positive values. To assign a pattern to these differences, we collect 1,555 estimates from 37 individual studies that cover 45 countries and 72 years. We then relate the estimates to 39 characteristics of the financial system, business cycle, and estimation approach. Our main results are threefold. First, the mean reported estimate is exaggerated by publication bias, because insignificant results are underreported. Second, inclusion of controls correlated with policy rates (credit or money supply) decreases the estimated effects of policy rates on house prices. Third, the effects are stronger in countries with more developed mortgage markets and generally later in the cycle when the yield curve is flat and house prices enter an upward spiral. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the different points of view of the classical school, the Keynesian school, and the monetary school regarding the velocity of money circulation. It aims to investigate the determinants of money velocity in Iraq for the period from 2005:1- to 2020:4, using the autoregressive distributed lag approach (ARDL Model). The results indicate the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the velocity of money circulation and its determinants. When estimating the parameters, it is found that the GDP growth rate has a positive effect on the velocity of money circulation, and it is the only variable that demonstrates statistical significance. Diagnostic tests were conducted, confirming that the model is free from the problems of serial correlation and heteroscedasticity in the error term, as well as demonstrating the stability of the parameters in the long term relationship between the velocity of money circulation and its explanatory variables. Based on these results, the researcher suggests that it is preferable to use the growth rate of the money supply, rather than interest rates as an indicator for measuring the impact of monetary policy on economic activity in Iraq. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Like many commodities, uranium price is notoriously volatile, and such volatility can have serious economic consequences for countries that export them. Niger, which is the fourth-largest producer of uranium in the world, has been dealing with uranium price fluctuations since the start of its production in 1972. Since 2011, Niger is also an oil-exporting country. However, Niger is still one of the poorest countries in the world, and policymakers are keen on learning the impact of natural resource revenue on the economy. Policymakers are particularly interested in knowing whether uranium export has been a curse instead of a blessing. As such, the present study seeks to analyze, empirically, the impact of uranium price fluctuations on key macroeconomic variables in Niger. More precisely, the objective of this article is to document the existence of Dutch “disease” or lack thereof in the economy. The study uses VAR and VECM methodologies and utilizes Granger causality tests, variance decomposition, and impulse response functions to guide the analysis. These approaches allow for an empirical deeper dive into the impact of the uranium sector on the economy. The article uses annual time series data covering the period from 1977 to 2015. The data comes from three main sources, including the World Development Indicators (WDI) database, the Central Bank of West African Countries dataset (EDEN), and Niger’s National Institute of Statistics (INS) dataset. The results show that Niger’s economy suffered from Dutch disease from uranium export. Indeed, the Granger causality tests show that uranium export revenue cannot be used to forecast real income in Niger. Furthermore, impulse response functions confirm the above result as a shock to uranium price and the resultant effects on money supply, inflation, and the real exchange rate is consistent with the Dutch “disease” theory. In general, uranium export revenue was the source of macroeconomic imbalances observed in the country during the period considered by the study. Now that Niger is also an exporter of oil in addition to uranium, policymakers should avoid the trap of Dutch “disease” by investing natural resources revenue strategically. Given Niger’s development challenges, using natural resources revenue for public investment in infrastructure, health, and education should be a priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the competitiveness of the banking sector has a direct effect on the steady state growth rate, through a process of well-functioning educational system, it is expected that capital market sector responds positively to steady economic growth. This is a puzzle that this study identified and put into empirical test. Data on financial market intermediation (as measured by market capitalization, money supply, credit to the private sector, and total reserve) and economic growth (as measured by Real GDP) were obtained from a secondary sources, namely the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2017), National Bureau of Statistics (2017) and World Bank Development Index. The study therefore applied stationarity tests (Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillip Perron) and structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) as analytical techniques in a bid to examine the effects of financial market intermediation on economic growth in Nigeria over a thirty-seven (37)-year period, from 1981 to 2017. Based on the evidence of statistical result, it was established that the estimated parameters attained stationarity at first difference, that is, I(1), the result further expressed that market capitalization has a positive and significant effect on economic growth (z=26.62778; p0.05); money supply has a positive and significant effect on economic growth (z=4.914683; p0.05); credit to the private sector has an inverse and significant effect on economic growth (z=2.707756; p0.05); and lastly, the result disclosed that total reserve has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria (z=12.63565; p0.05). According to the study, financial market intermediation has a significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria and can be used to predict economic growth in the Nigerian economy as in other developing economies of the world. The policy implication in the study is that governments need to intensify effort to ensure appropriate policy mix for harmony and proper coordination of economic policies and greater attention directed to money supply that is, greater emphasis should be on the improvement of monetary policies, instruments and institutions in Nigeria to ensure effective and efficient monetary system. The study also implies that government need to strengthen capital market the more in order to remain competitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Investment Savings-Liquidity preference Money supply (IS-LM) model is represented as a graph depicting the intersection of products and the money market. It elaborates how an equilibrium of money supply versus interest rates may keep the economy in control. In this paper, we combine the basic business cycle IS-LM model with Kaldor's growth model in order to create an augmented model. The IS-LM model, when coupled with a certain economics expansion (in our instance, the Kaldor–Kalecki Business Cycle Model), provides a comprehensive description of a developing but robust economy. Right after the introduction of capital stock into the system, it cannot be employed and also, while making some investment choices, this requires some time in execution, which ultimately alters resources, i.e. capital. Thus, in the capital accumulation, we will be incorporating double time delays in Gross product and Capital Stock. These time delays represent the time periods during which investment decisions were made and executed and the time spent in order for the capital to be put to productive use. After formulating a mathematical model using delayed differential equations, dynamic functioning of the system around equilibrium point is examined where three instances appeared based on time delays. These cases are: when both delays are not in action, when only one delay is in action and when both delays are in action. It is shown that time delay affects the stability of the equilibrium point and, as the delay crosses a critical point, Hopf bifurcation exists. It is observed that by using Kaldor type investment function, the delay residing in capital stock only will destabilize in less time as compared to when both the delays are present in the system. The system is sensitive to certain parameters which is also analyzed in this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: Endogenous money creation is an inherent feature of today's economies and widely accepted phenomenon. As the various theories of money rely on the money quantity equation, most empirical research is heading towards the analysis of the two-way relationship between the quantity of money and nominal GDP. In today's world, with the extraordinary development of the financial sector, money is used not only for transactions in the real economy, but increasingly also for purchasing financial assets. This observation was absorbed by Werner in the quantity theory of disaggregated credit. Purpose of the article: The aim of the paper is to join the debate on endogenous character of money supply by tasting a disaggregated equation of money. It assumes that the domestic money supply is positively determined not only by growth in GDP-based transactions but also by growth in non-GDP-based transactions (financial transactions). Additionally, it is assumed that in the age of globalization it can be also positively influenced by the global liquidity. Methods: Testing of the above-mentioned hypotheses takes place with the use of panel unit roots tests, panel Granger causality test and panel estimations (OLS, models with fixed/random effects, GMM). In the study, annual data from 2002 to 2018 for OECD countries were chosen for statistical research. Findings & value added: The article confirms the hypothesis that real and financial economic activity together with global liquidity positively influence domestic credit and thus money supply. As the amount of money in an economy is driven not only by the real economy but also by the financial economy, prudential regulations that restrict leverage (and thus control the amount of credit) and limit risk-taking during price bubbles periods should be therefore considered. In the research, the reaction of domestic money supply to the changes in US money supply is positive. It confirms the importance of spill-over effect of expansionary policy in major economies to other economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decades, and since the first development plan in 1970, Saudi Arabia has controlled the stability of its economy through prudent fiscal policy and tight monetary policy. This study examines the impact of monetary volatility on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in an oil-based economy from 1970 to 2018, using the Hodrick--Prescott filtering approach. Although standard methods such as GARCH are used to test volatility, the uniqueness of this study is that it tests the volatility of monetary policy using ordinary least squares (OLS), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and IRF methods. We find that the standard deviation of the broad money supply and the real interest rate business cycle tends to have a negative impact on real growth in the short and long run, supporting the proposition that a high interest rate negatively affects real growth. We also document that the standard deviation of the real exchange rate business cycle has a positive (negative) effect on real growth in the short and long run and is not statistically significant. This suggests that the volatility of the real exchange rate does not affect real growth. Moreover, the magnitude of the volatility of the coefficients is lower in the long run than in the short run. To achieve sustainable economic growth, policy makers need to plan how to manage the volatility of the money supply and the interest rate in the short run and develop long- run strategies to manage volatility in the long run. To control monetary volatility, policymakers should also control government spending by dampening the volatility of oil prices, which ultimately affect the money supply and thus stable economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of recent literature identifies the exchange rate as an important determinant of demand for money along with income and interest rate, but these studies assume the symmetric effect of exchange rate on demand for money. In contrast, this study argues that the exchange rate can have an asymmetric effect on money demand. Therefore, we estimate the symmetric and asymmetric impact of real effective exchange rate on demand for money from 1974 to 2019 for Pakistan using the symmetric and asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). The estimated symmetric ARDL model shows insignificant impact of the real effective exchange rate on demand for money while the asymmetric ARDL results show that the impact of currency depreciation on money demand is positive and significant, suggesting substitution effect. Moreover, the stability of the money demand function highlights the role of monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Instability in the movement of prices is a major concern in all countries. The rise in foreign exchange and prices of goods and services are among the key factors that causes fluctuation in the economic growth of a country. Thus, this paper adopted the ARDL model to examine whether real effective exchange rate, economic growth and money supply causes Inflation in the Gambia for the period 1985 to 2021. The finding reveals that all our variables causes inflation positively and negatively in the long run and short run respectively at a significant level of 1% except real effective exchange rate and money supply which is significant at 5% level in the long run. The recursive cumulative sum shows that the relationship was stable and the square recursive cumulative sum reveals instability in the relationship of our dependent and independent variables which could be as a result of exogenous shock in output and increase amount of public debts. The study recommends the Gambian government to be caution in taking increase amount of public debts and also the central bank of the Gambia to move from monetary targeting to inflation targeting so as to maintain economic growth and price stability. However, the central bank of the Gambia should assess the entire economy before implementing the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the two main dynamics of inflation, defined as demand-pull and cost-push inflation, are analyzed for the Turkish economy. Based on the fact that this basic dynamic in inflation may vary, the empirical structure of the study was created by taking into account the structural break in inflation. According to the empirical findings, it was concluded that the dynamics of inflation changed with the structural break in inflation. In terms of the Turkish economy, while demand-pull inflation was observed in the pre-structural break period when the domestic currency was appreciated. Cost-push inflation was more effective in the post-structural break period when the domestic currency was relatively depreciated due to the pass-through effect. Empirical findings show that after the structural break in inflation, a structural process was experienced in the Turkish economy in which money supply did not cause inflation. As it is known, the transfer of wealth from the lower income group to the higher income group accelerates during periods of high inflation. The insufficiency of effective demand, which decreases with the deepening of income inequality, also provides evidence for the fact that the money supply is not inflationary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]