Search

For ancient types of barley at sites in the Scottish Isles, Faroes, and Iceland, we calculated minimum temperature requirements for grain production (grain production threshold, GPT) as accumulated degree days over the cropping season. Site suitability for barley from AD 1200 to 2000 was investigated by comparing these thresholds with reconstructions of annual cropping season degree days (CSDD) using temperature and tree-ring data. In Iceland, between AD 1200 and 1500, reconstructed CSDD were more favorable in the southwest (Reykjavik), with fewer years below the GPT, than in the North, East and West, but there were two periods (1340–1389 and 1426–1475) with low average CSDD and several years below the GPT which possibly influenced the abandonment of barley cultivation around this time. Reconstructed CSDD for the Faroes (Tórshavn) had only one year below the GPT, but 15 periods of four or more consecutive years with low CSDD which would have challenged barley cultivation, especially in the thirteenth century. Reconstructed CSDD were highest for the Scottish Isles, allowing a more prominent role of barley in the farming system and economy. Nevertheless, years with poor harvests or famines were common and about half were associated with low CSDD, resulting in a significant temperature link but also demonstrating the important contribution of other factors. Despite frequent unfavorable years in both the Faroes and Scottish Isles, resilient production systems, well-adapted barley strains and socio-economic factors allowed barley cultivation to continue, and some ancient types to survive to the present day.

Documentary climate data describe evidence of past climate arising from predominantly written historical documents such as diaries, chronicles, newspapers, or logbooks. Over the past decades, historians and climatologists have generated numerous document-based time series of local and regional climates. However, a global dataset of documentary climate time series has never been compiled, and documentary data are rarely used in large-scale climate reconstructions. Here, we present the first global multi-variable collection of documentary climate records. The dataset DOCU-CLIM comprises 621 time series (both published and hitherto unpublished) providing information on historical variations in temperature, precipitation, and wind regime. The series are evaluated by formulating proxy forward models (i.e., predicting the documentary observations from climate fields) in an overlapping period. Results show strong correlations, particularly for the temperature-sensitive series. Correlations are somewhat lower for precipitation-sensitive series. Overall, we ascribe considerable potential to documentary records as climate data, especially in regions and seasons not well represented by early instrumental data and palaeoclimate proxies.

Interannual variability in the global land carbon sink is strongly related to variations in tropical temperature and rainfall. This association suggests an important role for moisture-driven fluctuations in tropical vegetation productivity, but empirical evidence to quantify the responsible ecological processes is missing. Such evidence can be obtained from tree-ring data that quantify variability in a major vegetation productivity component: woody biomass growth. Here we compile a pantropical tree-ring network to show that annual woody biomass growth increases primarily with dry-season precipitation and decreases with dry-season maximum temperature. The strength of these dry-season climate responses varies among sites, as reflected in four robust and distinct climate response groups of tropical tree growth derived from clustering. Using cluster and regression analyses, we find that dry-season climate responses are amplified in regions that are drier, hotter and more climatically variable. These amplification patterns suggest that projected global warming will probably aggravate drought-induced declines in annual tropical vegetation productivity. Our study reveals a previously underappreciated role of dry-season climate variability in driving the dynamics of tropical vegetation productivity and consequently in influencing the land carbon sink.

Altitudinally separated bristlecone pine populations in the White Mountains (California, USA) exhibit differential climate-growth responses as temperature and tree-water relations change with altitude. These populations provide a natural experiment to explore the ecophysiological adaptations of this unique tree species to the twentieth century climate variability. We developed absolutely dated annual ring-width chronologies, and cellulose stable carbon and oxygen isotope chronologies from bristlecone pine growing at the treeline (~3500 m) and ~200 m below for the period AD 1710-2010. These chronologies were interpreted in terms of ecophysiological adaptations to climate variability with a dual-isotope model and a leaf gas exchange model. Ring widths show positive tree growth anomalies at treeline and consistent slower growth below treeline in relation to the twentieth century warming and associated atmospheric drying until the 1980s. Growth rates of both populations declined during and after the 1980s when growing-season temperature and atmospheric vapour pressure deficit continued to increase. Our model-based interpretations of the cellulose stable isotopes indicate that positive treeline growth anomalies prior to the 1980s were related to increased stomatal conductance and leaf-level transpiration and photosynthesis. Reduced growth since the 1980s occurred with a shift to more conservative leaf gas exchange in both the treeline and below-treeline populations, whereas leaf-level photosynthesis continued to increase in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Our results suggest that warming-induced atmospheric drying confounds positive growth responses of apparent temperature-limited bristlecone pine populations at treeline. In addition, the observed ecophysiological responses of attitudinally separated bristlecone pine populations illustrate the sensitivity of conifers to climate change.

Reanalysis data show an increasing trend in Arctic precipitation over the 20th century, but changes are not homogenous across seasons or space. The observed hydro-climate changes are expected to continue and possibly accelerate in the coming century, not only affecting pan-Arctic natural ecosystems and human activities, but also lower latitudes through the atmospheric and ocean circulations. However, a lack of spatiotemporal observational data makes reliable quantification of Arctic hydroclimate change difficult, especially in a long-term context. To understand Arctic hydroclimate and its variability prior to the instrumental record, climate proxy records are needed. The purpose of this review is to summarise the current understanding of Arctic hydroclimate during the past 2000 years. First, the paper reviews the main natural archives and proxies used to infer past hydroclimate variations in this remote region and outlines the difficulty of disentangling the moisture from the temperature signal in these records. Second, a comparison of two sets of hydroclimate records covering the Common Era from two data-rich regions, North America and Fennoscandia, reveals inter- and intra-regional differences. Third, building on earlier work, this paper shows the potential for providing a high-resolution hydroclimate reconstruction for the Arctic and a comparison with last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models. In general, hydroclimate proxies and simulations indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly tends to have been wetter than the Little Ice Age (LIA), but there are large regional differences. However, the regional coverage of the proxy data is inadequate, with distinct data gaps in most of Eurasia and parts of North America, making robust assessments for the whole Arctic impossible at present. To fully assess pan-Arctic hydroclimate variability for the last 2 millennia, additional proxy records are required.

Though tree-ring chronologies are annually resolved, their dating has never been independently validated at the global scale. Moreover, it is unknown if atmospheric radiocarbon enrichment events of cosmogenic origin leave spatiotemporally consistent fingerprints. Here we measure the C-14 content in 484 individual tree rings formed in the periods 770-780 and 990-1000 CE. Distinct C-14 excursions starting in the boreal summer of 774 and the boreal spring of 993 ensure the precise dating of 44 tree-ring records from five continents. We also identify a meridional decline of 11-year mean atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations across both hemispheres. Corroborated by historical eye-witness accounts of red auroras, our results suggest a global exposure to strong solar proton radiation. To improve understanding of the return frequency and intensity of past cosmic events, which is particularly important for assessing the potential threat of space weather on our society, further annually resolved C-14 measurements are needed.

This study presents a summer temperature reconstruction using Scots pine tree-ring chronologies for Scotland allowing the placement of current regional temperature changes in a longer-term context. 'Living-tree' chronologies were extended using 'subfossil' samples extracted from nearshore lake sediments resulting in a composite chronology > 800 years in length. The North Cairngorms (NCAIRN) reconstruction was developed from a set of composite blue intensity high-pass and ring-width low-pass filtered chronologies with a range of detrending and disturbance correction procedures. Calibration against July-August mean temperature explains 56.4% of the instrumental data variance over 1866-2009 and is well verified. Spatial correlations reveal strong coherence with temperatures over the British Isles, parts of western Europe, southern Scandinavia and northern parts of the Iberian Peninsula. NCAIRN suggests that the recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s, although trends before the mid-sixteenth century should be interpreted with some caution due to greater uncertainty. Prominent cold periods were identified from the sixteenth century until the early 1800s-agreeing with the so-called Little Ice Age observed in other tree-ring reconstructions from Europe-with the 1690s identified as the coldest decade in the record. The reconstruction shows a significant cooling response 1 year following volcanic eruptions although this result is sensitive to the datasets used to identify such events. In fact, the extreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.

A detailed understanding of past temporal patterns and spatial expression of temperature variations is important to place recent anthropogenic climate change into a longer term context. In order to fill the current gap in our understanding of northwest European temperature variability, point-by-point principal component regression was used to reconstruct a spatial field of 0.5 degrees temperature grids across Scotland. A sequence of reconstructions utilizing several combinations of detrending and disturbance correction procedures, and a selection of tree-ring parameters [including ring width (RW), maximum latewood density (MXD) and blue intensity (BI)] was used in an evaluation of reconstruction skill. The high resolution of the reconstructed field serves also as a diagnostic tool to spatially assess the temperature reconstruction potential of local chronologies. Best reconstruction results, reaching calibration r(2)=65.8% and verification r(2)=63.7% in central Scotland over the 1901-1976 period, were achieved using disturbance-corrected and signal-free detrended RW chronologies merged with BI data after low-pass (high-pass) filtering the RW (BI) chronologies. Calibration and verification r(2)>50% was attained for central, north and east Scotland, >40% in west and northwest, and >30% in southern Scotland with verification of nearly all grids showing some reconstruction skill. However, the full calibration potential of reconstructions outside central Scotland was reduced either due to residual disturbance trends undetected by the disturbance correction procedure or due to other climatic or non-climatic factors which may have adversely affected the strength of the climate signal.

Blue intensity (BI) has the potential to provide information on past summer temperatures of a similar quality to maximum latewood density (MXD), but at a substantially reduced cost. This paper provides a methodological guide to the generation of BI data using a new and affordable BI measurement system; CooRecorder. Focussing on four sites in the Scottish Highlands from a wider network of 42 sites developed for the Scottish Pine Project, BI and MXD data from Scots pine (Pious sylvestris L.) were used to facilitate a direct comparison between these parameters. A series of experiments aimed at identifying and addressing the limitations of BI suggest that while some potential limitations exist, these can be minimised by adhering to appropriate BI generation protocols. The comparison of BI data produced using different resin-extraction methods (acetone vs. ethanol) and measurement systems (CooRecorder vs. WinDendro) indicates that comparable results can be achieved. Using samples from the same trees, a comparison of both BI and MXD with instrumental climate data revealed that overall, BI performs as well as, if not better than, MXD in reconstructing past summer temperatures (BI r(2) = 0.38-0.46; MXD r(2) = 0.34-0.35). Although reconstructions developed using BI and MXD data appeared equally robust, BI chronologies were more sensitive to the choice of detrending method due to differences in the relative trends of non-detrended raw BI and MXD data. This observation suggests that the heartwood-sapwood colour difference is not entirely removed using either acetone or ethanol chemical treatment, which may ultimately pose a potential limitation for extracting centennial and longer timescale information when using BI data from tree species that exhibit a distinct heartwood-sapwood colour difference. Additional research is required in order to develop new methods to overcome this potential limitation. However, the ease with which BI data can be produced should help justify and r, AuthorCount:7

The increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere in combination with climatic changes throughout the last century are likely to have had a profound effect on the physiology of trees: altering the carbon and water fluxes passing through the stomatal pores. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of such changes in natural forests remain highly uncertain. Here, stable carbon isotope ratios from a network of 35 tree-ring sites located across Europe are investigated to determine the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), the ratio of photosynthesis to stomatal conductance from 1901 to 2000. The results were compared with simulations of a dynamic vegetation model (LPX-Bern 1.0) that integrates numerous ecosystem and land-atmosphere exchange processes in a theoretical framework. The spatial pattern of tree-ring derived iWUE of the investigated coniferous and deciduous species and the model results agreed significantly with a clear south-to-north gradient, as well as a general increase in iWUE over the 20th century. The magnitude of the iWUE increase was not spatially uniform, with the strongest increase observed and modelled for temperate forests in Central Europe, a region where summer soil-water availability decreased over the last century. We were able to demonstrate that the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change leading to soil drying have resulted in an accelerated increase in iWUE. These findings will help to reduce uncertainties in the land surface schemes of global climate models, where vegetation-climate feedbacks are currently still poorly constrained by observational data., AuthorCount:31

Palaeorecords which depict changes in sulphur dynamics form an invaluable resource for recording atmospheric pollution. Tree rings constitute an archive that are ubiquitously available and can be absolutely dated, providing the potential to explore local- to regional-scale trends in sulphur availability. Rapid isotopic analysis by a novel “on-line” method using elemental analyser isotope ratio mass spectrometry (EA-IRMS) is developed, achieving sample precision of <0.4‰ using sample sizes of 40 mg wood powder. Tree cores from NE Italy show trends in pollution, evidenced through increasing concentrations of sulphur towards the youngest growth, and inverse trends in sulphur isotopes differentiating modern growth with light sulphur isotopes (+0.7‰) from pre-industrial growth (+7.5‰) influenced by bedrock composition. Comparison with speleothem records from the same location demonstrate replication, albeit offset in isotopic value due to groundwater storage. Using EA-IRMS, tree ring archives form a valuable resource for understanding local- to regional-scale sulphur pollution dynamics.

Combining nine tree growth proxies from four sites, from the west coast of Norway to the Kola Peninsula of NW Russia, provides a well replicated (> 100 annual measurements per year) mean index of tree growth over the last 1200 years that represents the growth of much of the northern pine timberline forests of northern Fennoscandia. The simple mean of the nine series, z-scored over their common period, correlates strongly with mean June to August temperature averaged over this region (r = 0.81), allowing reconstructions of summer temperature based on regression and variance scaling. The reconstructions correlate significantly with gridded summer temperatures across the whole of Fennoscandia, extending north across Svalbard and south into Denmark. Uncertainty in the reconstructions is estimated by combining the uncertainty in mean tree growth with the uncertainty in the regression models. Over the last seven centuries the uncertainty is < 4.5% higher than in the 20th century, and reaches a maximum of 12% above recent levels during the 10th century. The results suggest that the 20th century was the warmest of the last 1200 years, but that it was not significantly different from the 11th century. The coldest century was the 17th. The impact of volcanic eruptions is clear, and a delayed recovery from pairs or multiple eruptions suggests the presence of some positive feedback mechanism. There is no clear and consistent link between northern Fennoscandian summer temperatures and solar forcing., AuthorCount:17

Stable isotope analysis of cellulose is an increasingly important aspect of ecological and palaeoenvironmental research. Since these techniques are very costly, any methodological development which can provide simultaneous measurement of stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios in cellulose deserves further exploration. A large number (3074) of tree-ring α-cellulose samples are used to compare the stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) produced by high-temperature (1400°C) pyrolysis/gas chromatography (GC)/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) with those produced by combustion GC/IRMS. Although the two data sets are very strongly correlated, the pyrolysis results display reduced variance and are strongly biased towards the mean. The low carbon isotope ratios of tree-ring cellulose during the last century, reflecting anthropogenic disturbance of atmospheric carbon dioxide, are thus overestimated. The likely explanation is that a proportion of the oxygen atoms are bonding with residual carbon in the reaction chamber to form carbon monoxide. The 'pyrolysis adjustment', proposed here, is based on combusting a stratified sub-sample of the pyrolysis results, across the full range of carbon isotope ratios, and using the paired results to define a regression equation that can be used to adjust all the pyrolysis measurements. In this study, subsamples of 30 combustion measurements produced adjusted chronologies statistically indistinguishable from those produced by combusting every sample. This methodology allows simultaneous measurement of the stable isotopes of carbon and oxygen using high-temperature pyrolysis, reducing the amount of sample required and the analytical costs of measuring them separately.

A reconstruction of spring (April–May) temperature for northern Fennoscandia developed from the Tornionjoki (Tornio river) long cryophenological record of ice break-up dates, back to AD 1693, is presented. The record is strongly climatically sensitive and explains 67% of the variance in the instrumental data over the last 150 years. The record exhibits a stepped decrease in the duration of the river's ice cover by 14 days, equivalent to an increase in April–May mean temperature of approximately 2.5°C over the last three centuries. The relationship between the date of ice break-up, and accumulated daily mean temperatures (>0°C) is investigated. Uncertainty in the observation of ice break-up is also considered in addition to the potential of this time series for regional climate model validation., Millennium (EU 017008), Climate in the last millennium (VR 621-2007-45642), Reconstructing climate in the last millennium (VR 622-2009-7515)

Twentieth-century summer (July-August) temperatures in northern Finland are reconstructed using ring widths, maximum density and stable carbon isotope ratios (delta(13)C) of Scots pine tree rings, and using combinations of these proxies. Verification is based on the coefficient of determination (r(2)), reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistics. Of the individual proxies, delta(13)C performs best, followed by maximum density. Combining delta(13)C and maximum density strengthens the climate signal but adding ring widths leads to little improvement. Blue intensity, an inexpensive alternative to X-ray densitometry, is shown to perform similarly. Multi-proxy reconstruction of summer temperatures from a single site produces strong correlations with gridded climate data over most of northern Fennoscandia. Since relatively few trees are required (<15) the approach could be applied to long sub-fossil chronologies where replication may be episodically low., authorCount :8

Measurements of tree ring width and relative density have contributed significantly to many of the large-scale reconstructions of past climatic change, but to extract the climate signal it is first necessary to remove any nonclimatic age-related trends. This detrending can limit the lower-frequency climate information that may be extracted from the archive (the segment length curse). This paper uses a data set of ring widths, maximum latewood density and stable carbon and oxygen isotopes from 28 annually resolved series of known-age Pinus sylvestris L. trees in northwestern Norway to test whether stable isotopes in tree rings require an equivalent statistical detrending. Results indicate that stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios from tree rings whose cambial age exceeds c.50 years exhibit no significant age trends and thus may be used to reconstruct environmental variability and physiological processes at this site without the potential loss of low-frequency information associated with detrending., authorCount :6

Cloud cover is one of the most important factors controlling the radiation balance of the Earth. The response of cloud cover to increasing global temperatures represents the largest uncertainty in model estimates of future climate because the cloud response to temperature is not well-constrained. Here we present the first regional reconstruction of summer sunshine over the past millennium, based on the stable carbon isotope ratios of pine treerings from Fennoscandia. Comparison with the regional temperature evolution reveals the Little Ice Age (LIA) to have been sunny, with cloudy conditions in the warmest periods of the Medieval at this site. A negative shortwave cloud feedback is indicated at high latitude. A millennial climate simulation suggests that regionally low temperatures during the LIA were mostly maintained by a weaker greenhouse effect due to lower humidity. Simulations of future climate that display a negative shortwave cloud feedback for high-latitudes are consistent with our proxy interpretation. Citation: Gagen, M., E. Zorita, D. McCarroll, G. H. F. Young, H. Grudd, R. Jalkanen, N. J. Loader, I. Robertson, and A. Kirchhefer (2011), Cloud response to summer temperatures in Fennoscandia over the last thousand years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05701, doi:10.1029/2010GL046216., authorCount :9

Minimum blue intensity is a reflected light imaging technique that provides an inexpensive, robust and reliable surrogate for maximum latewood density. In this application it was found that temperature reconstructions from resin-extracted samples of Pious sylvestris (L.) from Fennoscandia provide results equivalent to conventional x-ray densitometry. This paper describes the implementation of the blue intensity method using commercially available software and a flat-bed scanner. A calibration procedure is presented that permits results obtained by different laboratories, or using different scanners, to be compared. In addition, the use of carefully prepared and chemically treated 10-mm-diameter cores are explored; suggesting that it may not be necessary to produce thin laths with the rings aligned exactly perpendicular to the measurement surface., authorCount :6

An abrupt cold event ca. 8200 cal. yr BP, is believed to have been caused by the catastrophic release of ice-dammed meltwater from Lake Agassiz and associated disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Previous reviews have highlighted both the “ideal” nature of the 8200 yr event as a target for numerical model validation and the likely geographical restriction of the ensuing cold event to the circum-North Atlantic region but have cited a lack of sufficiently resolved palaeoclimatic records to test this hypothesis. We review the current set of high-resolution stable isotope records from multiple archives (lake, bog, marine and ice cores) in the North Atlantic region for the period 9200–7400 yr BP (present = AD 1950). The isotopic values of terrestrial records are closely linked to isotopic values of palaeoprecipitation. All sites provided evidence for at least one centennial-scale anomaly (beginning ~ 8500–8250 yr BP) that exceeded background variability. No evidence for spatial or temporal transgression of the isotope anomalies was identified, implying that a simultaneous climate signal was observed in the circum-North Atlantic region. Comparison with new simulations using the UK Hadley Centre model HadCM3, which was isotope-enabled to simulate changes in the stable isotope composition of precipitation and forced by freshwater input (“hosing”) of 5 Sverdrups (Sv) (0.005 km3/s), for 1 yr, indicated agreement with the observed decrease in the amplitude of the isotope anomaly with distance from the NW North Atlantic. The model-simulated duration of the event, however, was consistently shorter than that observed in palaeoclimatic records. A review of evidence for forcing additional to the catastrophic release of meltwater from Lake Agassiz (solar variability, sea-ice feedback and longer-term meltwater history) suggested that reduced solar output did not directly coincide with the 8200 yr event, but that a more complex history of meltwater dis

There is a shortage of archives of sulfur that can be used to investigate industrial orvolcanic pollution in terrestrial catchments, but the role of S as a nutrient, coupled with sparse published evidence, suggests that trees are promising targets. We focused on two conifer species (Picea abies (L.) Karst and Abies alba Miller) from an Alpine site in NE Italy. Bulk analyses of Abies demonstrate that S concentrations were higher in the second half of the 20th century but with some high outliers possibly reflecting particulate impurities. X-ray synchrotron analyses confirmed the observed time trend, which is similar to that of a nearby stalagmite, and reflects an atmospheric pollution record mediated by storage in the soil and ecosystem. S and P were found to be localized in the inner cell wall (ca. 2 microm wide), local thickenings of which probably account for some outlying high values of S in synchrotron studies. S occurs as a mixture of oxidation states (0 to +0.5, +2, +5, and +6) which are consistent in space and time. The results indicate that wood older than a few years contains archive-quality S but that robust conclusions require multiple replicate analyses.

Documentary climate data describe evidence of past climate arising from predominantly written historical documents such as diaries, chronicles, newspapers, or logbooks. Over the past decades, historians and climatologists have generated numerous document-based time series of local and regional climates. However, a global dataset of documentary climate time series has never been compiled, and documentary data are rarely used in large-scale climate reconstructions. Here, we present the first global multi-variable collection of documentary climate records. The dataset DOCU-CLIM comprises 621 time series (both published and hitherto unpublished) providing information on historical variations in temperature, precipitation, and wind regime. The series are evaluated by formulating proxy forward models (i.e., predicting the documentary observations from climate fields) in an overlapping period. Results show strong correlations, particularly for the temperature-sensitive series. Correlations are somewhat lower for precipitation-sensitive series. Overall, we ascribe considerable potential to documentary records as climate data, especially in regions and seasons not well represented by early instrumental data and palaeoclimate proxies.