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The evolution of mechanical parameters, a factor affecting the mechanical reliability, has gathered more attention nowadays. However, studies on time varying uncertainty can hardly be found. A new method based on evolution-based uncertainty design (EBUD) is applied to the design of gear in this paper. Considering the wear evolution over the lifetime, a tooth wear’s time-varying uncertainty model based on the continuous-time model and Ito lemma is established. Drift and volatility functions dependent on the drift rate and volatility rate of rotational speed and torque are used to express the time-varying uncertainty of tooth thickness. The method can predict the reliability and provide an instruction in reliability improving, maintenance and repair of the gear system.

The evolution of mechanical parameters, a factor affecting the mechanical reliability, has gathered more attention nowadays. However, studies on time varying uncertainty can hardly be found. A new method based on evolution-based uncertainty design (EBUD) is applied to the design of gear in this paper. Considering the wear evolution over the lifetime, a tooth wear’s time-varying uncertainty model based on the continuous-time model and Ito lemma is established. Drift and volatility functions dependent on the drift rate and volatility rate of rotational speed and torque are used to express the time-varying uncertainty of tooth thickness. The method can predict the reliability and provide an instruction in reliability improving, maintenance and repair of the gear system.