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Open biomass burning has major impacts globally and regionally on atmospheric composition. Fire emissions include particulate matter, tropospheric ozone precursors, greenhouse gases, as well as persistent organic pollutants, mercury and other metals. Fire frequency, intensity, duration, and location are changing as the climate warms, and modelling these fires and their impacts is becoming more and more critical to inform climate adaptation and mitigation, as well as land management. Indeed, the air pollution from fires can reverse the progress made by emission controls on industry and transportation. At the same time, nearly all aspects of fire modelling – such as emissions, plume injection height, long-range transport, and plume chemistry – are highly uncertain. This paper outlines a multi-model, multi-pollutant, multi-regional study to improve the understanding of the uncertainties and variability in fire atmospheric science, models, and fires’ impacts, in addition to providing quantitative estimates of the air pollution and radiative impacts of biomass burning. Coordinated under the auspices of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution, the international atmospheric modelling and fire science communities are working towards the common goal of improving global fire modelling and using this multi-model experiment to provide estimates of fire pollution for impact studies. This paper outlines the research needs, opportunities, and options for the fire-focused multi-model experiments and provides guidance for these modelling experiments, outputs, and analysis that are to be pursued over the next 3 to 5 years. It proposes a plan for delivering specific products at key points over this period to meet important milestones relevant to science and policy audiences.

Reducing surface ozone to meet the European Union’s target for human health has proven challenging despite stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions over recent decades. The most extreme ozone pollution episodes are linked to heatwaves and droughts, which are increasing in frequency and intensity over Europe, with severe impacts on natural and human systems. Here, we use observations and Earth system model simulations for the period 1960–2018 to show that ecosystem–atmosphere interactions, especially reduced ozone removal by water-stressed vegetation, exacerbate ozone air pollution over Europe. These vegetation feedbacks worsen peak ozone episodes during European mega-droughts, such as the 2003 event, offsetting much of the air quality improvements gained from regional emissions controls. As the frequency of hot and dry summers is expected to increase over the coming decades, this climate penalty could be severe and therefore needs to be considered when designing clean air policy in the European Union.

The response of ozone (O3) dry deposition to ecosystem-atmosphere interactions is poorly understood but is central to determining the potential for extreme pollution events under current and future climate conditions. Using observations and an interactive dry deposition scheme within two dynamic vegetation land models (GFDL LM3.0/LM4.0) driven by observation-based meteorological forcings over 1948-2014, we investigate the factors controlling seasonal and interannual variability (IAV) in O3 deposition velocities (Vd,O3). Stomatal activity in this scheme is determined mechanistically, depending on phenology, soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit, and CO2 concentration. Soil moisture plays a key role in modulating the observed and simulated Vd,O3 seasonal changes over evergreen forests in Mediterranean Europe, South Asia, and the Amazon. Analysis of multi-year observations at forest sites in Europe and North America reveals drought stress to reduce Vd,O3 by ~50%. Both LM3.0 and LM4.0 capture the observed Vd,O3 decreases due to drought; however, IAV is weaker by a factor of two in LM3.0 coupled to atmospheric models, particularly in regions with large precipitation biases. IAV in summertime Vd,O3 to forests, driven primarily by the stomatal pathway, is largest (15-35%) in semi-arid regions of western Europe, eastern North America, and northeastern China. Monthly mean Vd,O3 for the highest year is two to four times that of the lowest, with significant implications for surface O3 variability and extreme events. Using Vd,O3 from LM4.0 in an atmospheric chemistry model improves the simulation of surface O3 abundance and spatial variability (reduces mean biases by ~10 ppb) relative to the widely-used Wesely scheme.

The response of ozone (O3) dry deposition to ecosystem‐atmosphere interactions is poorly understood but is central to determining the potential for extreme pollution events under current and future climate conditions. Using observations and an interactive dry deposition scheme within two dynamic vegetation land models (GFDL LM3.0/LM4.0) driven by observation‐based meteorological forcings over 1948‐2014, we investigate the factors controlling seasonal and interannual variability (IAV) in O3 deposition velocities (Vd,O3). Stomatal activity in this scheme is determined mechanistically, depending on phenology, soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit, and CO2 concentration. Soil moisture plays a key role in modulating the observed and simulated Vd,O3 seasonal changes over evergreen forests in Mediterranean Europe, South Asia, and the Amazon. Analysis of multi‐year observations at forest sites in Europe and North America reveals drought stress to reduce Vd,O3 by ~50%. Both LM3.0 and LM4.0 capture the observed Vd,O3 decreases due to drought; however, IAV is weaker by a factor of two in LM3.0 coupled to atmospheric models, particularly in regions with large precipitation biases. IAV in summertime Vd,O3 to forests, driven primarily by the stomatal pathway, is largest (15‐35%) in semi‐arid regions of western Europe, eastern North America, and northeastern China. Monthly mean Vd,O3 for the highest year is two to four times that of the lowest, with significant implications for surface O3 variability and extreme events. Using Vd,O3 from LM4.0 in an atmospheric chemistry model improves the simulation of surface O3 abundance and spatial variability (reduces mean biases by ~10 ppb) relative to the widely‐used Wesely scheme.

This study quantifies future changes in tropospheric ozone (O-3) using a simple parameterisation of source-receptor relationships based on simulations from a range of models participating in the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF-HTAP) experiments. Surface and tropospheric O-3 changes are calculated globally and across 16 regions from perturbations in precursor emissions (NOx, CO, volatile organic compounds - VOCs) and methane (CH4) abundance only, neglecting any impact from climate change. A source attribution is provided for each source region along with an estimate of uncertainty based on the spread of the results from the models. Tests against model simulations using the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 - Earth system configuration (HadGEM2-ES) confirm that the approaches used within the parameterisation perform well for most regions. The O-3 response to changes in CH4 abundance is slightly larger in the TF-HTAP Phase 2 than in the TF-HTAP Phase 1 assessment (2010) and provides further evidence that controlling CH4 is important for limiting future O-3 concentrations. Different treatments of chemistry and meteorology in models remain one of the largest uncertainties in calculating the O-3 response to perturbations in CH4 abundance and precursor emissions, particularly over the Middle East and south Asia regions. Emission changes for the future Evaluating the CLimate and Air Quality ImPacts of Short-livEd Pollutants (ECLIPSE) scenarios and a subset of preliminary Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) indicate that surface O-3 concentrations will increase regionally by 1 to 8 ppbv in 2050. Source attribution analysis highlights the growing importance of CH4 in the future under current legislation. A change in the global tropospheric O-3 radiative forcing of +0.07 W m(-2) from 2010 to 2050 is predicted using the ECLIPSE scenarios and SSPs, based solely on changes in CH4 abundance and tropospheric O-3 precursor emissions and negl

The impacts of climate change on tropospheric transport, diagnosed from a carbon monoxide (CO)-like tracer species emitted from global CO sources, are evaluated from an ensemble of four chemistry-climate model (CCMs) contributing to the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Model time-slice simulations for present-day and end of the 21st century conditions were performed under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) climate scenario RCP 8.5. All simulations reveal a strong seasonality in transport, especially over the tropics. The highest CO-tracer mixing ratios aloft occur during boreal winter when strong vertical transport is co-located with biomass burning emission source regions. A consistent and robust decrease in future CO-tracer mixing ratios throughout most of the troposphere, especially in the tropics, and an increase around the tropopause is found across the four CCMs in both winter and summer. Decreases in CO-tracer mixing ratios in the tropical troposphere are associated with reduced convective mass fluxes in this region, which in turn may reflect a weaker Hadley Cell circulation in the future climate. Increases in CO-tracer mixing ratios near the tropopause are largely attributable to a rise in tropopause height enabling lofting to higher altitudes, although a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jets may also play a minor role in the extra-tropical upper troposphere. An increase in CO-tracer mixing ratios also occurs near the Equator, centred over equatorial and Central Africa, extending from the surface to the mid-troposphere. This is most likely related to localised decreases in convection in the vicinity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), resulting in larger CO-tracer mixing ratios over biomass burning regions and smaller mixing ratios downwind.