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Groundwater in sub-Saharan Africa supports livelihoods and poverty alleviation, maintains vital ecosystems, and strongly influences terrestrial water and energy budgets. Yet the hydrological processes that govern groundwater recharge and sustainability—and their sensitivity to climatic variability—are poorly constrained. Given the absence of firm observational constraints, it remains to be seen whether model-based projections of decreased water resources in dry parts of the region are justified. Here we show, through analysis of multidecadal groundwater hydrographs across sub-Saharan Africa, that levels of aridity dictate the predominant recharge processes, whereas local hydrogeology influences the type and sensitivity of precipitation–recharge relationships. Recharge in some humid locations varies by as little as five per cent (by coefficient of variation) across a wide range of annual precipitation values. Other regions, by contrast, show roughly linear precipitation–recharge relationships, with precipitation thresholds (of roughly ten millimetres or less per day) governing the initiation of recharge. These thresholds tend to rise as aridity increases, and recharge in drylands is more episodic and increasingly dominated by focused recharge through losses from ephemeral overland flows. Extreme annual recharge is commonly associated with intense rainfall and flooding events, themselves often driven by large-scale climate controls. Intense precipitation, even during years of lower overall precipitation, produces some of the largest years of recharge in some dry subtropical locations. Our results therefore challenge the ‘high certainty’ consensus regarding decreasing water resources4 in such regions of sub-Saharan Africa. The potential resilience of groundwater to climate variability in many areas that is revealed by these precipitation–recharge relationships is essential for informing reliable predictions of climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies.

Groundwater in sub-Saharan Africa supports livelihoods and poverty alleviation, maintains vital ecosystems, and strongly influences terrestrial water and energy budgets. Yet the hydrological processes that govern groundwater recharge and sustainability—and their sensitivity to climatic variability—are poorly constrained. Given the absence of firm observational constraints, it remains to be seen whether model-based projections of decreased water resources in dry parts of the region are justified. Here we show, through analysis of multidecadal groundwater hydrographs across sub-Saharan Africa, that levels of aridity dictate the predominant recharge processes, whereas local hydrogeology influences the type and sensitivity of precipitation–recharge relationships. Recharge in some humid locations varies by as little as five per cent (by coefficient of variation) across a wide range of annual precipitation values. Other regions, by contrast, show roughly linear precipitation–recharge relationships, with precipitation thresholds (of roughly ten millimetres or less per day) governing the initiation of recharge. These thresholds tend to rise as aridity increases, and recharge in drylands is more episodic and increasingly dominated by focused recharge through losses from ephemeral overland flows. Extreme annual recharge is commonly associated with intense rainfall and flooding events, themselves often driven by large-scale climate controls. Intense precipitation, even during years of lower overall precipitation, produces some of the largest years of recharge in some dry subtropical locations. Our results therefore challenge the ‘high certainty’ consensus regarding decreasing water resources4 in such regions of sub-Saharan Africa. The potential resilience of groundwater to climate variability in many areas that is revealed by these precipitation–recharge relationships is essential for informing reliable predictions of climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies.

West Africa is a region in fast transition from climate, demography, and land use perspectives. In this context, the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)–Couplage de l'Atmosphère Tropicale et du Cycle eco-Hydrologique (CATCH) long-term regional observatory was developed to monitor the impacts of global change on the critical zone of West Africa and to better understand its current and future dynamics. The observatory is organized into three thematic axes, which drive the observation and instrumentation strategy: (i) analyze the long-term evolution of eco-hydrosystems from a regional perspective; (ii) better understand critical zone processes and their variability; and (iii) meet socioeconomic and development needs. To achieve these goals, the observatory has gathered data since 1990 from four densely instrumented mesoscale sites (∼104 km2 each), located at different latitudes (Benin, Niger, Mali, and Senegal) so as to sample the sharp eco-climatic gradient that is characteristic of the region. Simultaneous monitoring of the vegetation cover and of various components of the water balance at these four sites has provided new insights into the seemingly paradoxical eco-hydrological changes observed in the Sahel during the last decades: groundwater recharge and/or runoff intensification despite rainfall deficit and subsequent re-greening with still increasing runoff. Hydrological processes and the role of certain key landscape features are highlighted, as well as the importance of an appropriate description of soil and subsoil characteristics. Applications of these scientific results for sustainable development issues are proposed. Finally, detecting and attributing eco-hydrological changes and identifying possible regime shifts in the hydrologic cycle are the next challenges that need to be faced.

West Africa is a region in fast transition from climate, demography, and land use perspectives. In this context, the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)–Couplage de l'Atmosphère Tropicale et du Cycle eco-Hydrologique (CATCH) long-term regional observatory was developed to monitor the impacts of global change on the critical zone of West Africa and to better understand its current and future dynamics. The observatory is organized into three thematic axes, which drive the observation and instrumentation strategy: (i) analyze the long-term evolution of eco-hydrosystems from a regional perspective; (ii) better understand critical zone processes and their variability; and (iii) meet socioeconomic and development needs. To achieve these goals, the observatory has gathered data since 1990 from four densely instrumented mesoscale sites (∼104 km2 each), located at different latitudes (Benin, Niger, Mali, and Senegal) so as to sample the sharp eco-climatic gradient that is characteristic of the region. Simultaneous monitoring of the vegetation cover and of various components of the water balance at these four sites has provided new insights into the seemingly paradoxical eco-hydrological changes observed in the Sahel during the last decades: groundwater recharge and/or runoff intensification despite rainfall deficit and subsequent re-greening with still increasing runoff. Hydrological processes and the role of certain key landscape features are highlighted, as well as the importance of an appropriate description of soil and subsoil characteristics. Applications of these scientific results for sustainable development issues are proposed. Finally, detecting and attributing eco-hydrological changes and identifying possible regime shifts in the hydrologic cycle are the next challenges that need to be faced.