Search

The future space based gravitational wave detector LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna) will observe millions of Galactic binaries constantly present in the data stream. A small fraction of this population (of the order of several thousand) will be individually resolved. One of the challenging tasks from the data analysis point of view will be to estimate the parameters of resolvable galactic binaries while disentangling them from each other and from other gravitational wave sources present in the data. This problem is quite often referred to as a global fit in the field of LISA data analysis. A Bayesian framework is often used to infer the parameters of the sources and their number. The efficiency of the sampling techniques strongly depends on the proposals, especially in the multi-dimensional parameter space. In this paper we demonstrate how we can use neural density estimators, and in particular Normalising flows, in order to build proposals which significantly improve the convergence of sampling. We also demonstrate how these methods could help in building priors based on physical models and provide an alternative way to represent the catalogue of identified gravitational wave sources.

Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals (EMRIs) are one of the key sources for future space-based gravitational wave interferometers. Measurements of EMRI gravitational waves are expected to determine the characteristics of their sources with sub-percent precision. However, their waveform generation is challenging due to the long duration of the signal and the high harmonic content. Here, we present the first ready-to-use Schwarzschild eccentric EMRI waveform implementation in the frequency domain for use with either graphics processing units (GPUs) or central processing units (CPUs). We present the overall waveform implementation and test the accuracy and performance of the frequency domain waveforms against the time domain implementation. On GPUs, the frequency domain waveform takes in median $0.044$ seconds to generate and is twice as fast to compute as its time domain counterpart when considering massive black hole masses $\geq 2 \times 10^6 \,{\rm M_\odot}$ and initial eccentricities $e_0 > 0.2$. On CPUs, the median waveform evaluation time is $5$ seconds, and it is five times faster in the frequency domain than in the time domain. Using a sparser frequency array can further speed up the waveform generation, reaching up to $ 0.3$ seconds. This enables us to perform, for the first time, EMRI parameter inference with fully relativistic waveforms on CPUs. Future EMRI models which encompass wider source characteristics (particularly black hole spin and generic orbit geometries) will require significantly more harmonics. Frequency-domain models will be essential analysis tools for these astrophysically realistic and important signals., Comment: 23 pages, 6 figures

Some analyses of the third gravitational wave catalogue released by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration (LVK) suggest an excess of black holes around $15-20 M_{\odot}$. In order to investigate this feature, we introduce two flexible population models, a semi-parametric one and a non-parametric one. Both make use of reversible jump Markov chain Monte-Carlo to optimise their complexity. We also illustrate how the latter can be used to efficiently perform model selection. Our parametric model broadly agrees with the fiducial analysis of the LVK, but finds a peak of events at slightly larger masses. Our non-parametric model shows this same displacement. Moreover, it also suggests the existence of an excess of black holes around $20 M_{\odot}$. We assess the robustness of this prediction by performing mock injections and running hierarchical analyses on those. We find that such a feature might be due to statistical fluctuations, given the small number of events observed so far, with a $5\%$ probability. We estimate that with a few hundreds of observations, as expected for O4, our non-parametric model will, be able to robustly determine the presence of this excess. It will then allow for an efficient agnostic inference of the properties of black holes., Comment: correct typo in equation 5

In recent years, methods for Bayesian inference have been widely used in many different problems in physics where detection and characterization are necessary. Data analysis in gravitational-wave astronomy is a prime example of such a case. Bayesian inference has been very successful because this technique provides a representation of the parameters as a posterior probability distribution, with uncertainties informed by the precision of the experimental measurements. During the last couple of decades, many specific advances have been proposed and employed in order to solve a large variety of different problems. In this work, we present a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that integrates many of those concepts into a single MCMC package. For this purpose, we have built {\tt Eryn}, a user-friendly and multipurpose toolbox for Bayesian inference, which can be utilized for solving parameter estimation and model selection problems, ranging from simple inference questions, to those with large-scale model variation requiring trans-dimensional MCMC methods, like the LISA global fit problem. In this paper, we describe this sampler package and illustrate its capabilities on a variety of use cases., Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures

LISA, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, will usher in a new era in gravitational-wave astronomy. As the first anticipated space-based gravitational-wave detector, it will expand our view to the millihertz gravitational-wave sky, where a spectacular variety of interesting new sources abound: from millions of ultra-compact binaries in our Galaxy, to mergers of massive black holes at cosmological distances; from the beginnings of inspirals that will venture into the ground-based detectors' view to the death spiral of compact objects into massive black holes, and many sources in between. Central to realising LISA's discovery potential are waveform models, the theoretical and phenomenological predictions of the pattern of gravitational waves that these sources emit. This white paper is presented on behalf of the Waveform Working Group for the LISA Consortium. It provides a review of the current state of waveform models for LISA sources, and describes the significant challenges that must yet be overcome., Comment: 239 pages, 11 figures, white paper from the LISA Consortium Waveform Working Group, invited for submission to Living Reviews in Relativity, updated with comments from community

The analysis of gravitational wave (GW) datasets is based on the comparison of measured time series with theoretical templates of the detector's response to a variety of source parameters. For LISA, the main scientific observables will be the so-called time-delay interferometry (TDI) combinations, which suppress the otherwise overwhelming laser noise. Computing the TDI response to GW involves projecting the GW polarizations onto the LISA constellation arms, and then combining projections delayed by a multiple of the light propagation time along the arms. Both computations are difficult to perform efficiently for generic LISA orbits and GW signals. Various approximations are currently used in practice, e.g., assuming constant and equal armlengths, which yields analytical TDI expressions. In this article, we present 'fastlisaresponse', a new efficient GPU-accelerated code that implements the generic TDI response to GWs in the time domain. We use it to characterize the parameter-estimation bias incurred by analyzing loud Galactic-binary signals using the equal-armlength approximation. We conclude that equal-armlength parameter-estimation codes should be upgraded to the generic response if they are to achieve optimal accuracy for high (but reasonable) SNR sources within the actual LISA data., Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detect and characterize ∼104 Galactic Binaries, consisting predominantly of two white dwarfs (WDs). An interesting prospect within this population is a third object – another WD star, a circumbinary exoplanet (CBP), or a brown dwarf (BD) – in orbit about the inner WD pair. We present the first fully Bayesian detection and posterior analysis of substellar objects with LISA, focusing on the characterization of CBPs. We used an optimistic astrophysically motivated catalogue of these CBP third-body sources, including their orbital eccentricity around the inner binary for the first time. We examined Bayesian evidence computations for detectability, as well as the effects on the posterior distributions for both the inner binary parameters and the third-body parameters. We find that the posterior behaviour bifurcates based on whether the third-body period is above or below half the observation time. Additionally, we find that undetectable third-body sources can bias the inner binary parameters whether or not the correct template is used. We used the information retrieved from the study of the CBP population to make an initial conservative prediction for the number of detectable BD systems in the original catalogue. We end with commentary on the predicted qualitative effects on LISA global fitting and Galactic Binary population analysis. The procedure used in this work is generic and can be directly applied to other astrophysical effects expected within the Galactic Binary population. © 2022 The Author(s) Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Astronomical Society.

Gravitational-wave observations of extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) offer the opportunity to probe the environments of active galactic nuclei (AGN) through the torques that accretion disks induce on the binary. Within a Bayesian framework, we study how well such environmental effects can be measured using gravitational wave observations from the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). We focus on the torque induced by planetary-type migration on quasicircular inspirals, and use different prescriptions for geometrically thin and radiatively efficient disks. We find that LISA could detect migration for a wide range of disk viscosities and accretion rates, for both $\alpha$ and $\beta$ disk prescriptions. For a typical EMRI with masses $50M_\odot+10^6M_\odot$, we find that LISA could distinguish between migration in $\alpha$ and $\beta$ disks and measure the torque amplitude with $\sim 20\%$ relative precision. Provided an accurate torque model, we also show how to turn gravitational-wave measurements of the torque into constraints on the disk properties. Furthermore, we show that, if an electromagnetic counterpart is identified, the multimessenger observations of the AGN EMRI system will yield direct measurements of the disk viscosity. Finally, we investigate the impact of neglecting environmental effects in the analysis of the gravitational-wave signal, finding 3$\sigma$ biases in the primary mass and spin, and showing that ignoring such effects can lead to false detection of a deviation from general relativity. This work demonstrates the scientific potential of gravitational observations as probes of accretion-disk physics, accessible so far through electromagnetic observations only.

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detect and characterize $\sim10^4$ Galactic Binaries consisting predominantly of two White Dwarfs (WD). An interesting prospect within this population is a third object--another WD star, a Circumbinary Exoplanet (CBP), or a Brown Dwarf (BD)--in orbit about the inner WD pair. We present the first fully Bayesian detection and posterior analysis of sub-stellar objects with LISA, focusing on the characterization of CBPs. We used an optimistic astrophysically motivated catalogue of these CBP third-body sources, including their orbital eccentricity around the inner binary for the first time. We examined Bayesian Evidence computations for detectability, as well as the effects on the posterior distributions for both the inner binary parameters and the third-body parameters. We find that the posterior behavior bifurcates based on whether the third-body period is above or below half the observation time. Additionally, we find that undetectable third-body sources can bias the inner binary parameters whether or not the correct template is used. We used the information retrieved from the study of the CBP population to make an initial conservative prediction for the number of detectable BD systems in the original catalogue. We end with commentary on the predicted qualitative effects on LISA global fitting and Galactic Binary population analysis. The procedure used in this work is generic and can be directly applied to other astrophysical effects expected within the Galactic Binary population., Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, 1 table

The analysis of gravitational wave (GW) datasets is based on the comparison of measured time series with theoretical templates of the detector's response to a variety of source parameters. For LISA, the main scientific observables will be the so-called time-delay interferometry (TDI) combinations, which suppress the otherwise overwhelming laser noise. Computing the TDI response to GW involves projecting the GW polarizations onto the LISA constellation arms, and then combining projections delayed by a multiple of the light propagation time along the arms. Both computations are difficult to perform efficiently for generic LISA orbits and GW signals. Various approximations are currently used in practice, e.g., assuming constant and equal armlengths, which yields analytical TDI expressions. In this article, we present 'fastlisaresponse', a new efficient GPU-accelerated code that implements the generic TDI response to GWs in the time domain. We use it to characterize the parameter-estimation bias incurred by analyzing loud Galactic-binary signals using the equal-armlength approximation. We conclude that equal-armlength parameter-estimation codes should be upgraded to the generic response if they are to achieve optimal accuracy for high (but reasonable) SNR sources within the actual LISA data., Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables

Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) merging in dwarf galaxies will be detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) in the mid-2030s. Previous cosmological hydrodynamic simulations have shown the prediction of massive black holes merging in dwarf galaxies, but these simulations are limited by their resolution and cannot follow black hole pairs all the way to coalescence. We calculate the delay time between black hole pairing and merger based on the properties of the black holes and their host galaxies, and use these properties to calculate gravitational wave strains for eleven different binary black holes that merge inside dwarf galaxies from eight cosmological simulations. This delay time calculation accounts for dynamical friction, loss-cone scattering and hardening of the binary due to gravitational radiation. Out of the eleven black hole mergers in the simulations, four black hole pairs will merge within a Hubble time and can be observed by LISA, one pair's coalescence time is longer than the Hubble time, and the remaining six are unresolved due to resolution limitations of the simulation. As four out of five of the resolved close pairs merge within a Hubble time, we make the broad estimate that ~80% of close SMBH pairs in dwarf galaxies will merge and be detectable by LISA., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, to be submitted to MNRAS

The LISA Data Challenges Working Group within the LISA Consortium has started publishing datasets to benchmark, compare, and build LISA data analysis infrastructure as the Consortium prepares for the launch of the mission. We present our solution to the dataset from LISA Data Challenge (LDC) 1A containing a single massive black hole binary signal. This solution is built from a fully-automated and GPU-accelerated pipeline consisting of three segments: a brute-force initial search; a refining search that uses the efficient Likelihood computation technique of Heterodyning (also called Relative Binning) to locate the maximum Likelihood point; and a parameter estimation portion that also takes advantage of the speed of the Heterodyning method. This pipeline takes tens of minutes to evolve from randomized initial parameters throughout the prior volume to a converged final posterior distribution. Final posteriors are shown for both datasets from LDC 1A: one noiseless data stream and one containing additive noise. A posterior distribution including higher harmonics is also shown for a self-injected waveform with the same source parameters as is used in the original LDC 1A dataset. This higher-mode posterior is shown in order to provide a more realistic distribution on the parameters of the source., Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables

Since 2015 the gravitational-wave observations of LIGO and Virgo have transformed our understanding of compact-object binaries. In the years to come, ground-based gravitational-wave observatories such as LIGO, Virgo, and their successors will increase in sensitivity, discovering thousands of stellar-mass binaries. In the 2030s, the space-based LISA will provide gravitational-wave observations of massive black holes binaries. Between the $\sim 10$-$10^3~\mathrm{Hz}$ band of ground-based observatories and the $\sim10^{-4}$-$10^{-1}~\mathrm{Hz}$ band of LISA lies the uncharted decihertz gravitational-wave band. We propose a Decihertz Observatory to study this frequency range, and to complement observations made by other detectors. Decihertz observatories are well suited to observation of intermediate-mass ($\sim10^2$-$10^4 M_\odot$) black holes; they will be able to detect stellar-mass binaries days to years before they merge, providing early warning of nearby binary neutron star mergers and measurements of the eccentricity of binary black holes, and they will enable new tests of general relativity and the Standard Model of particle physics. Here we summarise how a Decihertz Observatory could provide unique insights into how black holes form and evolve across cosmic time, improve prospects for both multimessenger astronomy and multiband gravitational-wave astronomy, and enable new probes of gravity, particle physics and cosmology., Comment: 13 pages, 1 figure. Published in Experimental Astronomy. Summarising white paper arXiv:1908.11375

Since 2015 the gravitational-wave observations of LIGO and Virgo have transformed our understanding of compact-object binaries. In the years to come, ground-based gravitational-wave observatories such as LIGO, Virgo, and their successors will increase in sensitivity, discovering thousands of stellar-mass binaries. In the 2030s, the space-based LISA will provide gravitational-wave observations of massive black holes binaries. Between the similar to 10-10(3) Hz band of ground-based observatories and the similar to 10(-4)-10(- 1) Hz band of LISA lies the uncharted decihertz gravitational-wave band. We propose a Decihertz Observatory to study this frequency range, and to complement observations made by other detectors. Decihertz observatories are well suited to observation of intermediate-mass (similar to 10(2)-10(4)M(circle dot)) black holes; they will be able to detect stellar-mass binaries days to years before they merge, providing early warning of nearby binary neutron star mergers and measurements of the eccentricity of binary black holes, and they will enable new tests of general relativity and the Standard Model of particle physics. Here we summarise how a Decihertz Observatory could provide unique insights into how black holes form and evolve across cosmic time, improve prospects for both multimessenger astronomy and multiband gravitational-wave astronomy, and enable new probes of gravity, particle physics and cosmology.

Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) merging in dwarf galaxies will be detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) in the mid-2030s. Previous cosmological hydrodynamic simulations have shown the prediction of massive black holes merging in dwarf galaxies, but these simulations are limited by their resolution and cannot follow black hole pairs all the way to coalescence. We calculate the delay time between black hole pairing and merger based on the properties of the black holes and their host galaxies, and use these properties to calculate gravitational wave strains for eleven different binary black holes that merge inside dwarf galaxies from eight cosmological simulations. This delay time calculation accounts for dynamical friction due to gas and stars, loss-cone scattering, and hardening of the binary due to gravitational radiation. Out of the eleven black hole mergers in the simulations, five black hole pairs will merge within 0.8 - 8 Gyr of forming a close pair and could be observed by LISA, and the remaining six are unresolved due to resolution limitations of the simulation. As all five of the resolved close pairs merge within a Hubble time, we make the broad estimate that close SMBH pairs in dwarf galaxies will merge and be detectable by LISA, but this estimate depends on either the presence of gas during orbital decay or a solution to the dynamical buoyancy problem in cored potentials., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures

The LISA Data Challenges Working Group within the LISA Consortium has started publishing datasets to benchmark, compare, and build LISA data analysis infrastructure as the Consortium prepares for the launch of the mission. We present our solution to the dataset from LISA Data Challenge (LDC) 1A containing a single massive black hole binary signal. This solution is built from a fully-automated and GPU-accelerated pipeline consisting of three segments: a brute-force initial search; a refining search that uses the efficient Likelihood computation technique of Heterodyning (also called Relative Binning) to locate the maximum Likelihood point; and a parameter estimation portion that also takes advantage of the speed of the Heterodyning method. This pipeline takes tens of minutes to evolve from randomized initial parameters throughout the prior volume to a converged final posterior distribution. Final posteriors are shown for both datasets from LDC 1A: one noiseless data stream and one containing additive noise. A posterior distribution including higher harmonics is also shown for a self-injected waveform with the same source parameters as is used in the original LDC 1A dataset. This higher-mode posterior is shown in order to provide a more realistic distribution on the parameters of the source., Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables

Since 2015 the gravitational-wave observations of LIGO and Virgo have transformed our understanding of compact-object binaries. In the years to come, ground-based gravitational-wave observatories such as LIGO, Virgo, and their successors will increase in sensitivity, discovering thousands of stellar-mass binaries. In the 2030s, the space-based LISA will provide gravitational-wave observations of massive black holes binaries. Between the $\sim 10$-$10^3~\mathrm{Hz}$ band of ground-based observatories and the $\sim10^{-4}$-$10^{-1}~\mathrm{Hz}$ band of LISA lies the uncharted decihertz gravitational-wave band. We propose a Decihertz Observatory to study this frequency range, and to complement observations made by other detectors. Decihertz observatories are well suited to observation of intermediate-mass ($\sim10^2$-$10^4 M_\odot$) black holes; they will be able to detect stellar-mass binaries days to years before they merge, providing early warning of nearby binary neutron star mergers and measurements of the eccentricity of binary black holes, and they will enable new tests of general relativity and the Standard Model of particle physics. Here we summarise how a Decihertz Observatory could provide unique insights into how black holes form and evolve across cosmic time, improve prospects for both multimessenger astronomy and multiband gravitational-wave astronomy, and enable new probes of gravity, particle physics and cosmology., Comment: 13 pages, 1 figure. Published in Experimental Astronomy. Summarising white paper arXiv:1908.11375

We compute adiabatic waveforms for extreme mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) by "stitching" together a long inspiral waveform from a sequence of waveform snapshots, each of which corresponds to a particular geodesic orbit. We show that the complicated total waveform can be regarded as a sum of "voices." Each voice evolves in a simple way on long timescales, a property which can be exploited to efficiently produce waveform models that faithfully encode the properties of EMRI systems. We look at examples for a range of different orbital geometries: spherical orbits, equatorial eccentric orbits, and one example of generic (inclined and eccentric) orbits. To our knowledge, this is the first calculation of a generic EMRI waveform that uses strong-field radiation reaction. We examine waveforms in both the time and frequency domains. Although EMRIs evolve slowly enough that the stationary phase approximation (SPA) to the Fourier transform is valid, the SPA calculation must be done to higher order for some voices, since their instantaneous frequency can change from chirping forward ($\dot f > 0$) to chirping backward ($\dot f < 0$). The approach we develop can eventually be extended to more complete EMRI waveform models, for example to include effects neglected by the adiabatic approximation such as the conservative self force and spin-curvature coupling., Comment: 31 pages, 17 figures. Update: corrected a sign error in a term in Eq. (B5). This factor was correct in the related code, it was purely a typo in the manuscript. An erratum to PRD has been submitted. Many thanks to Angelica Albertini for bringing this error to our attention. Update 2: corrected a missing factor of $m$ in Eq. (3.30)

The future space mission LISA will observe a wealth of gravitational-wave sources at millihertz frequencies. Of these, the extreme-mass-ratio inspirals of compact objects into massive black holes are the only sources that combine the challenges of strong-field complexity with that of long-lived signals. Such signals are found and characterized by comparing them against a large number of accurate waveform templates during data analysis, but the rapid generation of templates is hindered by computing the ∼10^{3}–10^{5} harmonic modes in a fully relativistic waveform. We use order-reduction and deep-learning techniques to derive a global fit for the ≈4000 modes in the special case of an eccentric Schwarzschild orbit, and implement the fit in a complete waveform framework with hardware acceleration. Our high-fidelity waveforms can be generated in under 1 s, and achieve a mismatch of ≲5×10^{-4} against reference waveforms that take ≳10^{4} times longer. This marks the first time that analysis-length waveforms with full harmonic content can be produced on timescales useful for direct implementation in LISA analysis algorithms., United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ATP Grant no. 80NSSC18K1091), National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant no. PHY-1707549)

The future space mission LISA will observe a wealth of gravitational-wave sources at millihertz frequencies. Of these, the extreme-mass-ratio inspirals of compact objects into massive black holes are the only sources that combine the challenges of strong-field complexity with that of long-lived signals. Such signals are found and characterized by comparing them against a large number of accurate waveform templates during data analysis, but the rapid generation of templates is hindered by computing the ∼10^{3}–10^{5} harmonic modes in a fully relativistic waveform. We use order-reduction and deep-learning techniques to derive a global fit for the ≈4000 modes in the special case of an eccentric Schwarzschild orbit, and implement the fit in a complete waveform framework with hardware acceleration. Our high-fidelity waveforms can be generated in under 1 s, and achieve a mismatch of ≲5×10^{-4} against reference waveforms that take ≳10^{4} times longer. This marks the first time that analysis-length waveforms with full harmonic content can be produced on timescales useful for direct implementation in LISA analysis algorithms.

The gravitational-wave astronomical revolution began in 2015 with LIGO's observation of the coalescence of two stellar-mass black holes. Over the coming decades, ground-based detectors like laser interferometer gravitational-wave observatory (LIGO), Virgo and KAGRA will extend their reach, discovering thousands of stellar-mass binaries. In the 2030s, the space-basedlaser interferometer space antenna(LISA) will enable gravitational-wave observations of the massive black holes in galactic centres. Between ground-based observatories and LISA lies the unexplored dHz gravitational-wave frequency band. Here, we show the potential of adecihertz observatory(DO) which could cover this band, and complement discoveries made by other gravitational-wave observatories. The dHz range is uniquely suited to observation of intermediate-mass (similar to 10(2)-10(4)M(circle dot)) black holes, which may form the missing link between stellar-mass and massive black holes, offering an opportunity to measure their properties. DOs will be able to detect stellar-mass binaries days to years before they merge and are observed by ground-based detectors, providing early warning of nearby binary neutron star mergers, and enabling measurements of the eccentricity of binary black holes, providing revealing insights into their formation. Observing dHz gravitational-waves also opens the possibility of testing fundamental physics in a new laboratory, permitting unique tests of general relativity (GR) and the standard model of particle physics. Overall, a DO would answer outstanding questions about how black holes form and evolve across cosmic time, open new avenues for multimessenger astronomy, and advance our understanding of gravitation, particle physics and cosmology.

Massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) of $10^5 \, \rm M_\odot - 3 \times 10^7 \, \rm M_\odot $ merging in low redshift galaxies ($z\le4$) are sufficiently loud to be detected weeks before coalescence with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). This allows us to perform the parameter estimation $on$ $the$ $fly$, i.e. as a function of the time to coalescence during the inspiral phase, relevant for early warning of the planned LISA protected periods and for searches of electromagnetic signals. In this work, we study the evolution of the sky position, luminosity distance, chirp mass and mass ratio uncertainties as function of time left before merger. Overall, light systems with total intrinsic mass $\rm M_{\rm tot} = 3 \times 10^5 \, \rm M_\odot$ are characterized by smaller uncertainties than heavy ones ($\rm M_{\rm tot} = 10^7 \, \rm M_\odot$) during the inspiral. Luminosity distance, chirp mass and mass ratio are well constrained at the end of the inspiral. Concerning sky position, at $z=1$, MBHBs with $\rm M_{\rm tot} = 3 \times 10^5 \, \rm M_\odot$ can be localized with a median precision of $\simeq 10^2 \, \rm deg^2 (\simeq 1 \, \rm deg^2)$ at 1 month (1 hour) from merger, while the sky position of heavy MBHBs can be determined to $10 \, \rm deg^2$ only 1 hour before merger. However the uncertainty around the median values broadens with time, ranging in between 0.04 -- 20 $\rm deg^2$ (0.3 -- 3 $\times 10^3 \, \rm deg^2$) for light (heavy) systems at 1 hour before merger. At merger the sky localization improves down to $\simeq 10^{-1} \, \rm deg^2$ for all masses. For the benefit of the observer community, we provide the full set of data from our simulations and simple and ready-to-use analytical fits to describe the time evolution of uncertainties in the aforementioned parameters, valid for systems with total mass between $10^5$--$10^7 \, \rm M_\odot$ and redshift $0.3$--$3$., Comment: 31 pages, 24 figures and 6 tables. Submitted to Physical Review D

Many inspiraling and merging stellar remnants emit both gravitational and electromagnetic radiation as they orbit or collide. These gravitational wave events together with their associated electromagnetic counterparts provide insight about the nature of the merger, allowing us to further constrain properties of the binary. With the future launch of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), follow up observations and models are needed of ultracompact binary (UCB) systems. Current and upcoming long baseline time domain surveys will observe many of these UCBs. We present a new fast periodic object search tool capable of searching for generic periodic signals based on the Conditional Entropy algorithm. This new implementation allows for a grid search over both the period ($P$) and the time derivative of the period ($\dot{P}$). To demonstrate the usage of this tool, we use a small, hand-picked subset of a UCB population generated from the population synthesis code \cosmic, as well as a custom catalog for varying periods at fixed intrinsic parameters. We simulate light curves as likely to be observed by future time domain surveys by using an existing eclipsing binary light curve model accounting for the change in orbital period due to gravitational radiation. We find that a search with $\dot{P}$ values is necessary for detecting binaries at orbital periods less than $\sim$10 min. We also show it is useful in finding and characterizing binaries with longer periods, but at a higher computational cost. Our code is called gce (GPU-Accelerated Conditional Entropy). It is available at https://github.com/mikekatz04/gce., Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures

The current generation of all-sky surveys is rapidly expanding our ability to study variable and transient sources. These surveys, with a variety of sensitivities, cadences, and fields of view, probe many ranges of timescale and magnitude. Data from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) yields an opportunity to find variables on timescales from minutes to months. In this paper, we present the codebase, ztfperiodic, and the computational metrics employed for the catalogue based on ZTF's Second Data Release. We describe the publicly available, graphical-process-unit optimized period-finding algorithms employed, and highlight the benefit of existing and future graphical-process-unit clusters. We show how generating metrics as input to catalogues of this scale is possible for future ZTF data releases. Further work will be needed for future data from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

Massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) of $10^5 \, \rm M_\odot - 3 \times 10^7 \, \rm M_\odot $ merging in low redshift galaxies ($z\le4$) are sufficiently loud to be detected weeks before coalescence with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). This allows us to perform the parameter estimation $on$ $the$ $fly$, i.e. as a function of the time to coalescence during the inspiral phase, relevant for early warning of the planned LISA protected periods and for searches of electromagnetic signals. In this work, we study the evolution of the sky position, luminosity distance, chirp mass and mass ratio uncertainties as function of time left before merger. Overall, light systems with total intrinsic mass $\rm M_{\rm tot} = 3 \times 10^5 \, \rm M_\odot$ are characterized by smaller uncertainties than heavy ones ($\rm M_{\rm tot} = 10^7 \, \rm M_\odot$) during the inspiral. Luminosity distance, chirp mass and mass ratio are well constrained at the end of the inspiral. Concerning sky position, at $z=1$, MBHBs with $\rm M_{\rm tot} = 3 \times 10^5 \, \rm M_\odot$ can be localized with a median precision of $\simeq 10^2 \, \rm deg^2 (\simeq 1 \, \rm deg^2)$ at 1 month (1 hour) from merger, while the sky position of heavy MBHBs can be determined to $10 \, \rm deg^2$ only 1 hour before merger. However the uncertainty around the median values broadens with time, ranging in between 0.04 -- 20 $\rm deg^2$ (0.3 -- 3 $\times 10^3 \, \rm deg^2$) for light (heavy) systems at 1 hour before merger. At merger the sky localization improves down to $\simeq 10^{-1} \, \rm deg^2$ for all masses. For the benefit of the observer community, we provide the full set of data from our simulations and simple and ready-to-use analytical fits to describe the time evolution of uncertainties in the aforementioned parameters, valid for systems with total mass between $10^5$--$10^7 \, \rm M_\odot$ and redshift $0.3$--$3$., Comment: 31 pages, 24 figures and 6 tables. Accepted for publication in Physical Review D

Many inspiraling and merging stellar remnants emit both gravitational and electromagnetic radiation as they orbit or collide. These gravitational wave events together with their associated electromagnetic counterparts provide insight about the nature of the merger, allowing us to further constrain properties of the binary. With the future launch of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), follow up observations and models are needed of ultracompact binary (UCB) systems. Current and upcoming long baseline time domain surveys will observe many of these UCBs. We present a new fast periodic object search tool capable of searching for generic periodic signals based on the Conditional Entropy algorithm. This new implementation allows for a grid search over both the period ($P$) and the time derivative of the period ($\dot{P}$). To demonstrate the usage of this tool, we use a small, hand-picked subset of a UCB population generated from the population synthesis code \cosmic, as well as a custom catalog for varying periods at fixed intrinsic parameters. We simulate light curves as likely to be observed by future time domain surveys by using an existing eclipsing binary light curve model accounting for the change in orbital period due to gravitational radiation. We find that a search with $\dot{P}$ values is necessary for detecting binaries at orbital periods less than $\sim$10 min. We also show it is useful in finding and characterizing binaries with longer periods, but at a higher computational cost. Our code is called gce (GPU-Accelerated Conditional Entropy). It is available at https://github.com/mikekatz04/gce., Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures

Massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) of 105 M-3×107 M merging in low redshift galaxies (z≤4) are sufficiently loud to be detected weeks before coalescence with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). This allows us to perform the parameter estimation on the fly, i.e., as a function of the time to coalescence during the inspiral phase, relevant for early warning of the planned LISA protected periods and for searches of electromagnetic signals. In this work, we study the evolution of the sky position, luminosity distance, chirp mass and mass ratio uncertainties as function of time left before merger. Overall, light systems with total intrinsic mass Mtot=3×105 M are characterized by smaller uncertainties than heavy ones (Mtot=107 M) during the inspiral. Luminosity distance, chirp mass and mass ratio are well constrained at the end of the inspiral. Concerning sky position, at z=1, MBHBs with Mtot=3×105 M can be localized with a median precision of ≃102 deg2(≃1 deg2) at 1 month (1 hour) from merger, while the sky position of heavy MBHBs can be determined to 10 deg2 only 1 hour before merger. However the uncertainty around the median values broadens with time, ranging in between 0.04-20 deg2 (0.3-3×103 deg2) for light (heavy) systems at 1 hour before merger. At merger the sky localization improves down to ≃10-1 deg2 for all masses. For the benefit of the observer community, we provide the full set of data from our simulations and simple and ready-to-use analytical fits to describe the time evolution of uncertainties in the aforementioned parameters, valid for systems with total mass between 105-107 M and redshift 0.3-3.

The gravitational-wave astronomical revolution began in 2015 with LIGO's observation of the coalescence of two stellar-mass black holes. Over the coming decades, ground-based detectors like LIGO will extend their reach, discovering thousands of stellar-mass binaries. In the 2030s, the space-based LISA will enable gravitational-wave observations of the massive black holes in galactic centres. Between LISA and ground-based observatories lies the unexplored decihertz gravitational-wave frequency band. Here, we propose a Decihertz Observatory to cover this band, and complement observations made by other gravitational-wave observatories. The decihertz band is uniquely suited to observation of intermediate-mass ($\sim 10^2$-$10^4 M_\odot$) black holes, which may form the missing link between stellar-mass and massive black holes, offering a unique opportunity to measure their properties. Decihertz observations will be able to detect stellar-mass binaries days to years before they merge and are observed by ground-based detectors, providing early warning of nearby binary neutron star mergers, and enabling measurements of the eccentricity of binary black holes, providing revealing insights into their formation. Observing decihertz gravitational-waves also opens the possibility of testing fundamental physics in a new laboratory, permitting unique tests of general relativity and the Standard Model of particle physics. Overall, a Decihertz Observatory will answer key questions about how black holes form and evolve across cosmic time, open new avenues for multimessenger astronomy, and advance our understanding of gravitation, particle physics and cosmology., Comment: 52 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables. Submitted to Classical & Quantum Gravity. Based upon a white paper for ESA's Voyage 2050 on behalf of the LISA Consortium 2050 Task Force

ESA and NASA are moving forward with plans to launch LISA around 2034. With data from the Illustris cosmological simulation, we provide analysis of LISA detection rates accompanied by characterization of the merging massive black hole population. Massive black holes of total mass $\sim10^5-10^{10} M_\odot$ are the focus of this study. We evolve Illustris massive black hole mergers, which form at separations on the order of the simulation resolution ($\sim$kpc scales), through coalescence with two different treatments for the binary massive black hole evolutionary process. The coalescence times of the population, as well as physical properties of the black holes, form a statistical basis for each evolutionary treatment. From these bases, we Monte Carlo synthesize many realizations of the merging massive black hole population to build mock LISA detection catalogs. We analyze how our massive black hole binary evolutionary models affect detection rates and the associated parameter distributions measured by LISA. With our models, we find massive black hole binary detection rates with LISA of $\sim0.5-1$ yr$^{-1}$ for massive black holes with masses greater than $10^5M_\odot$. This should be treated as a lower limit primarily because our massive black hole sample does not include masses below $10^5M_\odot$, which may significantly add to the observed rate. We suggest reasons why we predict lower detection rates compared to much of the literature., Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables

The gravitational-wave astronomical revolution began in 2015 with LIGO's observation of the coalescence of two stellar-mass black holes. Over the coming decades, ground-based detectors like LIGO will extend their reach, discovering thousands of stellar-mass binaries. In the 2030s, the space-based LISA will enable gravitational-wave observations of the massive black holes in galactic centres. Between LISA and ground-based observatories lies the unexplored decihertz gravitational-wave frequency band. Here, we propose a Decihertz Observatory to cover this band, and complement observations made by other gravitational-wave observatories. The decihertz band is uniquely suited to observation of intermediate-mass ($\sim 10^2$-$10^4 M_\odot$) black holes, which may form the missing link between stellar-mass and massive black holes, offering a unique opportunity to measure their properties. Decihertz observations will be able to detect stellar-mass binaries days to years before they merge and are observed by ground-based detectors, providing early warning of nearby binary neutron star mergers, and enabling measurements of the eccentricity of binary black holes, providing revealing insights into their formation. Observing decihertz gravitational-waves also opens the possibility of testing fundamental physics in a new laboratory, permitting unique tests of general relativity and the Standard Model of particle physics. Overall, a Decihertz Observatory will answer key questions about how black holes form and evolve across cosmic time, open new avenues for multimessenger astronomy, and advance our understanding of gravitation, particle physics and cosmology., Comment: 52 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables. Submitted to Classical & Quantum Gravity. Based upon a white paper for ESA's Voyage 2050 on behalf of the LISA Consortium 2050 Task Force

ESA and NASA are moving forward with plans to launch LISA around 2034. With data from the Illustris cosmological simulation, we provide analysis of LISA detection rates accompanied by characterization of the merging massive black hole population. Massive black holes of total mass $\sim10^5-10^{10} M_\odot$ are the focus of this study. We evolve Illustris massive black hole mergers, which form at separations on the order of the simulation resolution ($\sim$kpc scales), through coalescence with two different treatments for the binary massive black hole evolutionary process. The coalescence times of the population, as well as physical properties of the black holes, form a statistical basis for each evolutionary treatment. From these bases, we Monte Carlo synthesize many realizations of the merging massive black hole population to build mock LISA detection catalogs. We analyze how our massive black hole binary evolutionary models affect detection rates and the associated parameter distributions measured by LISA. With our models, we find massive black hole binary detection rates with LISA of $\sim0.5-1$ yr$^{-1}$ for massive black holes with masses greater than $10^5M_\odot$. This should be treated as a lower limit primarily because our massive black hole sample does not include masses below $10^5M_\odot$, which may significantly add to the observed rate. We suggest reasons why we predict lower detection rates compared to much of the literature., Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables

The dynamical processing of black holes in the dense cores of globular clusters (GCs), makes them efficient factories for producing binary black holes (BBHs). Here we explore the population of BBHs that form dynamically in GCs and may be observable at mHz frequencies or higher with LISA. We use our Monte Carlo stellar dynamics code, which includes gravitational radiation reaction effects for all BH encounters. By creating a representative local universe of GCs, we show that up to dozens of these systems may be resolvable by LISA with signal-to-noise ratios of at least 5. Approximately one third of these binaries will have measurable eccentricities ($e > 10^{-3}$) in the LISA band and a small number ($\lesssim 5$) may evolve from the LISA band to the LIGO band during the LISA mission., Comment: Accepted for publication in Physical Review D

The dynamical processing of black holes in the dense cores of globular clusters (GCs), makes them efficient factories for producing binary black holes (BBHs). Here we explore the population of BBHs that form dynamically in GCs and may be observable at mHz frequencies or higher with LISA. We use our Monte Carlo stellar dynamics code, which includes gravitational radiation reaction effects for all BH encounters. By creating a representative local universe of GCs, we show that up to dozens of these systems may be resolvable by LISA with signal-to-noise ratios of at least 5. Approximately one third of these binaries will have measurable eccentricities ($e > 10^{-3}$) in the LISA band and a small number ($\lesssim 5$) may evolve from the LISA band to the LIGO band during the LISA mission., Comment: Accepted for publication in Physical Review D

We examine situations in which a party must make a sunk investment prior to contracting with a second party to purchase an essential complementary input. We study how the resulting old-up problem is affected by the seller’s information about the investing party’s likely returns from its investment. Our principal focus is on the effects of the investment’s being observable by the non-investing party. We establish conditions under which the seller’s ability to observe the buyer’s investment harms the seller, benefits the buyer, and reduces equilibrium investment and total surplus. We also note conditions under which investment and welfare rise when investment is observable.

Many products—including microprocessors, telecommunications devices, computer software and on-line auction services—make use of multiple technologies, each of which is essential to make or sell the product. The owner of one technology benefits from the existence of complementary technologies. We show that, despite this externality, the structure of payoffs that support efficient R&D investment by duopolists racing to discover a single innovation generalizes to the structure that supports efficient investment for complementary innovations. The paper also examines how alternative intellectual property regimes and legal institutions affect R&D investment in complementary technologies. The results have policy implications for the organization of R&D, the assessment of damages for patent infringement, and allocations of value in patent pools.

We examine situations in which a party must make a sunk investment prior to contracting with a second party to purchase an essential complementary input. We study how the resulting old-up problem is affected by the seller’s information about the investing party’s likely returns from its investment. Our principal focus is on the effects of the investment’s being observable by the non-investing party. We establish conditions under which the seller’s ability to observe the buyer’s investment harms the seller, benefits the buyer, and reduces equilibrium investment and total surplus. We also note conditions under which investment and welfare rise when investment is observable.

Many products—including microprocessors, telecommunications devices, computer software and on-line auction services—make use of multiple technologies, each of which is essential to make or sell the product. The owner of one technology benefits from the existence of complementary technologies. We show that, despite this externality, the structure of payoffs that support efficient R&D investment by duopolists racing to discover a single innovation generalizes to the structure that supports efficient investment for complementary innovations. The paper also examines how alternative intellectual property regimes and legal institutions affect R&D investment in complementary technologies. The results have policy implications for the organization of R&D, the assessment of damages for patent infringement, and allocations of value in patent pools.

Intellectual property owners often hold the rights to several patents, each of which is essential to make or use a product. We compare the welfare properties of package licenses, under which a licensee pays the same fee regardless of the number of technologies licensed, with component licenses, under which each technology is licensed separately and there is no quantity discount. A central finding is that a long-term package license can induce incentives to invent around patents and invest in complementary assets that are closer to their socially optimal levels than are those induced by a long-term component license. We also identify settings in which a short-term license is a partial substitute for a package license and a prohibition on package licensing induces parties to adopt contracts that result in less efficient complementary investment because of hold-up.

Intellectual property owners often hold the rights to several patents, each of which is essential to make or use a product. We compare the welfare properties of package licenses, under which a licensee pays the same fee regardless of the number of technologies licensed, with component licenses, under which each technology is licensed separately and there is no quantity discount. A central finding is that a long-term package license can induce incentives to invent around patents and invest in complementary assets that are closer to their socially optimal levels than are those induced by a long-term component license. We also identify settings in which a short-term license is a partial substitute for a package license and a prohibition on package licensing induces parties to adopt contracts that result in less efficient complementary investment because of hold-up.

We examine the welfare effects of product-line restrictions, such as those called for by some proponents of network neutrality regulation. We find that restricting a monopoly supplier to a single product has the following effects: (a) consumers who would otherwise have consumed a low-quality variant are excluded from the market; (b) consumers "in the middle" of the market consume a higher and more efficient quality; and (c) consumers at the top of the market consume a lower and less efficient quality. Total surplus may rise or fall. We also examine a duopoly model and find that imposition of a single-product restriction always reduces welfare. Absent the restriction, the two firms engage in head-to-head competition across full product lines. In some circumstances, the restriction induces the two firms to offer identical products. The resulting loss of variety reduces welfare. In other circumstances, the restriction induces the firms to offer non-overlapping, or vertically differentiated, products. Here, the resulting loss of competition harms both consumers and economic efficiency. Lastly, we find that, to the extent that the regulation is intended to eliminate low-quality products, it may fail. Even though any one firm can offer only a single product, various firms can collectively offer a menu of products.

Both senders and receivers of telecommunications messages derive benefits, creating the possibility of externalities. We explore whether intercarrier compensation (i.e., access charges) can induce carriers to internalize these external effects. In important settings, access charges are irrelevant. Where they are relevant, access charges can induce an efficient ratio of off-net send and receive prices--taking their sum as given--but cannot induce the correct sum. The latter requires a mechanism for cross-carrier internalization, such as repeat play or pricing policies contingent on one another. Lastly, non-zero access charges can be efficient even in highly symmetrical situations.

There has been considerable debate concerning whether consumer surplus or total surplus should be the welfare standard for antitrust. This debate misses two critical issues. First, antitrust is not straightforwardly welfarist—it does not maximize but protects, and it does not forbid all actions that seem likely to lower some welfare measure. Rather, antitrust enforcement has both process and consequence components: “anticompetitive” actions that harm consumers are illegal but other actions that harm consumers are not. Second, the enforcement process involves multiple steps and multiple decision makers. Mergers, for instance, are proposed by the merging parties, reviewed and perhaps challenged by antitrust agencies, and reviewed by courts. Hence, a full discussion of what standard is or should be applied must specify by whom and how it fits in the overall process. We conclude that, while some popular arguments for a consumer surplus standard are weak, other arguments have some merit.

We examine the welfare effects of product-line restrictions, such as those called for by some proponents of network neutrality regulation. We find that restricting a monopoly supplier to a single product has the following effects: (a) consumers who would otherwise have consumed a low-quality variant are excluded from the market; (b) consumers "in the middle" of the market consume a higher and more efficient quality; and (c) consumers at the top of the market consume a lower and less efficient quality. Total surplus may rise or fall. We also examine a duopoly model and find that imposition of a single-product restriction always reduces welfare. Absent the restriction, the two firms engage in head-to-head competition across full product lines. In some circumstances, the restriction induces the two firms to offer identical products. The resulting loss of variety reduces welfare. In other circumstances, the restriction induces the firms to offer non-overlapping, or vertically differentiated, products. Here, the resulting loss of competition harms both consumers and economic efficiency. Lastly, we find that, to the extent that the regulation is intended to eliminate low-quality products, it may fail. Even though any one firm can offer only a single product, various firms can collectively offer a menu of products.

Both senders and receivers of telecommunications messages derive benefits, creating the possibility of externalities. We explore whether intercarrier compensation (i.e., access charges) can induce carriers to internalize these external effects. In important settings, access charges are irrelevant. Where they are relevant, access charges can induce an efficient ratio of off-net send and receive prices--taking their sum as given--but cannot induce the correct sum. The latter requires a mechanism for cross-carrier internalization, such as repeat play or pricing policies contingent on one another. Lastly, non-zero access charges can be efficient even in highly symmetrical situations.