1. Predicting water quality and ecological responses
- Author
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Dyer, FJ, El Sawah, S, Lucena-Moya, P, Harrison, ET, Croke, BFW, et al, Dyer, Fiona, El Sawah, Sondoss, Lucena-Moya, Paloma, Harrison, Evan, Croke, Barry, Tschierschke, Alicia, Griffiths, Rachael, Brawata, Renee, Kath, J., Reynoldson, Trefor, Jakeman, Anthony, Dyer, FJ, El Sawah, S, Lucena-Moya, P, Harrison, ET, Croke, BFW, et al, Dyer, Fiona, El Sawah, Sondoss, Lucena-Moya, Paloma, Harrison, Evan, Croke, Barry, Tschierschke, Alicia, Griffiths, Rachael, Brawata, Renee, Kath, J., Reynoldson, Trefor, and Jakeman, Anthony
- Abstract
Changes to climate are predicted to have effects on freshwater streams. Stream flows are likely to change, with implications for freshwater ecosystems and water quality. Other stressors such as population growth, community preferences and management policies can be expected to interact in various ways with climate change and stream flows, and outcomes for freshwater ecosystems and water quality are uncertain. Managers of freshwater ecosystems and water supplies could benefit from being able to predict the scales of likely changes. This project has developed and applied a linked modelling framework to assess climate change impacts on water quality regimes and ecological responses. The framework is designed to inform water planning and climate adaptation activities. It integrates quantitative tools, and predicts relationships between future climate, human activities, water quality and ecology, thereby filling a gap left by the considerable research effort so far invested in predicting stream flows. The modelling framework allows managers to explore potential changes in the water quality and ecology of freshwater systems in response to plausible scenarios for climate change and management adaptations. Although set up for the Upper Murrumbidgee River catchment in southern NSW and ACT, the framework was planned to be transferable to other regions where suitable data are available. The approach and learning from the project appear to have the potential to be broadly applicable. We selected six climate scenarios representing minor, moderate and major changes in flow characteristics for 1oC and 2oC temperature increases. These were combined with four plausible alternative management adaptations that might be used to modify water supply, urban water demand and stream flow regimes in the Upper Murrumbidgee catchment. The Bayesian Network (BN) model structure we used was developed using both a ‘top down’ and ‘bottom up’ approach. From analyses combined with expert advice, we i
- Published
- 2013