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Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C), also known as female circumcision, is a global public health and human rights problem affecting women and girls. Several concerted efforts to eliminate the practice are underway in several sub-Saharan African countries where the practice is most prevalent. Studies have reported variations in the practice with some countries experiencing relatively slow decline in prevalence. This study investigates the roles of normative influences and related risk factors (e.g., geographic location) on the persistence of FGM/C among 0-14 years old girls in Kenya. The key objective is to identify and map hotspots (high risk regions). We fitted spatial and spatio-temporal models in a Bayesian hierarchical regression framework on two datasets extracted from successive Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) from 1998 to 2014. The models were implemented in R statistical software using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for parameters estimation, while model fit and assessment employed deviance information criterion (DIC) and effective sample size (ESS). Results showed that daughters of cut women were highly likely to be cut. Also, the likelihood of a girl being cut increased with the proportion of women in the community (1) who were cut (2) who supported FGM/C continuation, and (3) who believed FGM/C was a religious obligation. Other key risk factors included living in the northeastern region; belonging to the Kisii or Somali ethnic groups and being of Muslim background. These findings offered a clearer picture of the dynamics of FGM/C in Kenya and will aid targeted interventions through bespoke policymaking and implementations.

Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C), also known as female circumcision, is a global public health and human rights problem affecting women and girls. Several concerted efforts to eliminate the practice are underway in several sub-Saharan African countries where the practice is most prevalent. Studies have reported variations in the practice with some countries experiencing relatively slow decline in prevalence. This study investigates the roles of normative influences and related risk factors (e.g., geographic location) on the persistence of FGM/C among 0-14 years old girls in Kenya. The key objective is to identify and map hotspots (high risk regions). We fitted spatial and spatio-temporal models in a Bayesian hierarchical regression framework on two datasets extracted from successive Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) from 1998 to 2014. The models were implemented in R statistical software using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for parameters estimation, while model fit and assessment employed deviance information criterion (DIC) and effective sample size (ESS). Results showed that daughters of cut women were highly likely to be cut. Also, the likelihood of a girl being cut increased with the proportion of women in the community (1) who were cut (2) who supported FGM/C continuation, and (3) who believed FGM/C was a religious obligation. Other key risk factors included living in the northeastern region; belonging to the Kisii or Somali ethnic groups and being of Muslim background. These findings offered a clearer picture of the dynamics of FGM/C in Kenya and will aid targeted interventions through bespoke policymaking and implementations.

Background: Retail drug shops play a significant role in managing pediatric fevers in rural areas in Uganda. Targeted interventions to improve drug seller practices require understanding of the retail drug shop market and motivations that influence practices. This study aimed at describing the operational environment in relation to the Uganda National Drug Authority guidelines for setup of drug shops; characteristics, and dispensing practices of private retail drug shops in managing febrile conditions among under-five children in rural western Uganda. Methods: Cross sectional survey of 74 registered drug shops, observation checklist, and 428 exit interviews using a semi-structured questionnaire with care-seekers of children under five years of age, who sought care at drug shops during the survey period. The survey was conducted in Mbarara and Bushenyi districts, South Western Uganda, in May 2013. Results: Up to 90 and 79% of surveyed drug shops in Mbarara and Bushenyi, largely operate in premises that meet National Drug Authority requirements for operational suitability and ensuring medicines safety and quality. Drug shop attendants had some health or medical related training with 60% in Mbarara and 59% in Bushenyi being nurses or midwives. The rest were clinical officers, pharmacists. The most commonly stocked medicines at drug shops were Paracetamol, Quinine, Cough syrup, ORS/Zinc, Amoxicillin syrup, Septrin (R) syrup, Artemisinin-based combination therapies, and multivitamins, among others. Decisions on what medicines to stock were influenced by among others: recommended medicines from Ministry of Health, consumer demand, most profitable medicines, and seasonal disease patterns. Dispensing decisions were influenced by: prescriptions presented by client, patients' finances, and patient preferences, among others. Most drug shops surveyed had clinical guidelines, iCCM guidelines, malaria and diarrhea treatment algorithms and charts as recommended by the Ministry of

Background: Retail drug shops play a significant role in managing pediatric fevers in rural areas in Uganda. Targeted interventions to improve drug seller practices require understanding of the retail drug shop market and motivations that influence practices. This study aimed at describing the operational environment in relation to the Uganda National Drug Authority guidelines for setup of drug shops; characteristics, and dispensing practices of private retail drug shops in managing febrile conditions among under-five children in rural western Uganda. Methods: Cross sectional survey of 74 registered drug shops, observation checklist, and 428 exit interviews using a semi-structured questionnaire with care-seekers of children under five years of age, who sought care at drug shops during the survey period. The survey was conducted in Mbarara and Bushenyi districts, South Western Uganda, in May 2013. Results: Up to 90 and 79% of surveyed drug shops in Mbarara and Bushenyi, largely operate in premises that meet National Drug Authority requirements for operational suitability and ensuring medicines safety and quality. Drug shop attendants had some health or medical related training with 60% in Mbarara and 59% in Bushenyi being nurses or midwives. The rest were clinical officers, pharmacists. The most commonly stocked medicines at drug shops were Paracetamol, Quinine, Cough syrup, ORS/Zinc, Amoxicillin syrup, Septrin (R) syrup, Artemisinin-based combination therapies, and multivitamins, among others. Decisions on what medicines to stock were influenced by among others: recommended medicines from Ministry of Health, consumer demand, most profitable medicines, and seasonal disease patterns. Dispensing decisions were influenced by: prescriptions presented by client, patients' finances, and patient preferences, among others. Most drug shops surveyed had clinical guidelines, iCCM guidelines, malaria and diarrhea treatment algorithms and charts as recommended by the Ministry of

Background: Retail drug shops play a significant role in managing pediatric fevers in rural areas in Uganda. Targeted interventions to improve drug seller practices require understanding of the retail drug shop market and motivations that influence practices. This study aimed at describing the operational environment in relation to the Uganda National Drug Authority guidelines for setup of drug shops; characteristics, and dispensing practices of private retail drug shops in managing febrile conditions among under-five children in rural western Uganda. Methods: Cross sectional survey of 74 registered drug shops, observation checklist, and 428 exit interviews using a semi-structured questionnaire with care-seekers of children under five years of age, who sought care at drug shops during the survey period. The survey was conducted in Mbarara and Bushenyi districts, South Western Uganda, in May 2013. Results: Up to 90 and 79% of surveyed drug shops in Mbarara and Bushenyi, largely operate in premises that meet National Drug Authority requirements for operational suitability and ensuring medicines safety and quality. Drug shop attendants had some health or medical related training with 60% in Mbarara and 59% in Bushenyi being nurses or midwives. The rest were clinical officers, pharmacists. The most commonly stocked medicines at drug shops were Paracetamol, Quinine, Cough syrup, ORS/Zinc, Amoxicillin syrup, Septrin (R) syrup, Artemisinin-based combination therapies, and multivitamins, among others. Decisions on what medicines to stock were influenced by among others: recommended medicines from Ministry of Health, consumer demand, most profitable medicines, and seasonal disease patterns. Dispensing decisions were influenced by: prescriptions presented by client, patients' finances, and patient preferences, among others. Most drug shops surveyed had clinical guidelines, iCCM guidelines, malaria and diarrhea treatment algorithms and charts as recommended by the Ministry of

Background: Retail drug shops play a significant role in managing pediatric fevers in rural areas in Uganda. Targeted interventions to improve drug seller practices require understanding of the retail drug shop market and motivations that influence practices. This study aimed at describing the operational environment in relation to the Uganda National Drug Authority guidelines for setup of drug shops; characteristics, and dispensing practices of private retail drug shops in managing febrile conditions among under-five children in rural western Uganda. Methods: Cross sectional survey of 74 registered drug shops, observation checklist, and 428 exit interviews using a semi-structured questionnaire with care-seekers of children under five years of age, who sought care at drug shops during the survey period. The survey was conducted in Mbarara and Bushenyi districts, South Western Uganda, in May 2013. Results: Up to 90 and 79% of surveyed drug shops in Mbarara and Bushenyi, largely operate in premises that meet National Drug Authority requirements for operational suitability and ensuring medicines safety and quality. Drug shop attendants had some health or medical related training with 60% in Mbarara and 59% in Bushenyi being nurses or midwives. The rest were clinical officers, pharmacists. The most commonly stocked medicines at drug shops were Paracetamol, Quinine, Cough syrup, ORS/Zinc, Amoxicillin syrup, Septrin (R) syrup, Artemisinin-based combination therapies, and multivitamins, among others. Decisions on what medicines to stock were influenced by among others: recommended medicines from Ministry of Health, consumer demand, most profitable medicines, and seasonal disease patterns. Dispensing decisions were influenced by: prescriptions presented by client, patients' finances, and patient preferences, among others. Most drug shops surveyed had clinical guidelines, iCCM guidelines, malaria and diarrhea treatment algorithms and charts as recommended by the Ministry of

Background: Retail drug shops play a significant role in managing pediatric fevers in rural areas in Uganda. Targeted interventions to improve drug seller practices require understanding of the retail drug shop market and motivations that influence practices. This study aimed at describing the operational environment in relation to the Uganda National Drug Authority guidelines for setup of drug shops; characteristics, and dispensing practices of private retail drug shops in managing febrile conditions among under-five children in rural western Uganda. Methods: Cross sectional survey of 74 registered drug shops, observation checklist, and 428 exit interviews using a semi-structured questionnaire with care-seekers of children under five years of age, who sought care at drug shops during the survey period. The survey was conducted in Mbarara and Bushenyi districts, South Western Uganda, in May 2013. Results: Up to 90 and 79% of surveyed drug shops in Mbarara and Bushenyi, largely operate in premises that meet National Drug Authority requirements for operational suitability and ensuring medicines safety and quality. Drug shop attendants had some health or medical related training with 60% in Mbarara and 59% in Bushenyi being nurses or midwives. The rest were clinical officers, pharmacists. The most commonly stocked medicines at drug shops were Paracetamol, Quinine, Cough syrup, ORS/Zinc, Amoxicillin syrup, Septrin (R) syrup, Artemisinin-based combination therapies, and multivitamins, among others. Decisions on what medicines to stock were influenced by among others: recommended medicines from Ministry of Health, consumer demand, most profitable medicines, and seasonal disease patterns. Dispensing decisions were influenced by: prescriptions presented by client, patients' finances, and patient preferences, among others. Most drug shops surveyed had clinical guidelines, iCCM guidelines, malaria and diarrhea treatment algorithms and charts as recommended by the Ministry of

Objectives Hospital board members are asked to consider large amounts of quality and safety data with a duty to act on signals of poor performance. However, in order to do so it is necessary to distinguish signals from noise (chance). This article investigates whether data in English National Health Service (NHS) acute care hospital board papers are presented in a way that helps board members consider the role of chance in their decisions. Methods Thirty English NHS trusts were selected at random and their board papers retrieved. Charts depicting quality and safety were identified. Categorical discriminations were then performed to document the methods used to present quality and safety data in board papers, with particular attention given to whether and how the charts depicted the role of chance, that is, by including control lines or error bars. Results Thirty board papers, containing a total of 1488 charts, were sampled. Only 88 (6%) of these charts depicted the role of chance, and only 17 of the 30 board papers included any charts depicting the role of chance. Of the 88 charts that attempted to represent the role of chance, 16 included error bars and 72 included control lines. Only 6 (8%) of the 72 control charts indicated where the control lines had been set (eg, 2 vs 3 SDs). Conclusions Hospital board members are expected to consider large amounts of information. Control charts can help board members distinguish signals from noise, but often boards are not using them. We discuss demand-side and supply-side barriers that could be overcome to increase use of control charts in healthcare.

Background: Depression is a complex mental disorder that affects an increasing proportion of the worldwide population. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of depressive symptoms in Luxembourg, associated risk factors and geographic variations. Additionally, it aims to assess whether first and second generation immigrants are at higher risk for depressive symptoms compared to non-immigrants. Methods: Representative cross-sectional data from 1499 residents of Luxembourg, aged 25 to 64 years, were collected from the Luxembourg European Health Survey (EHES-LUX). Depressive symptoms were defined as a score of ≥5 on the Patient Health Questionnaire for depression (PHQ-9) (i.e. mild, moderate or severe). Standard and Bayesian regression models were used to examine associations between depressive symptoms, immigration status and geographic distribution across Luxembourg. Results: The prevalence of depressive symptoms was 21.55% (15.54% mild, 3.54% moderate, and 2.49% moderately severe to severe). The odds of having depressive symptoms was higher among second generation immigrants compared to non-immigrants (OR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.41), independent of socioeconomic and behavioral characteristics. Healthier diet, higher social support and good health perception were protective towards experiencing depressive symptoms. One of the highest likelihoods of reporting depressive symptoms was observed in the South-West of the country with a positive effect at 80% credible region [CR] (1.42 [0.92, 2.73]). Limitations: The participation rate was low (26.7%). The cross-sectional nature of the study does not allow us to establish causality. Conclusions: Depression constitutes an important public health challenge in Luxembourg due to the impact on the overall health of the population. Social programs of health promotion should be developed to improve mental wellbeing in immigrants, especially those of second generation.

Background: Depression is a complex mental disorder that affects an increasing proportion of the worldwide population. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of depressive symptoms in Luxembourg, associated risk factors and geographic variations. Additionally, it aims to assess whether first and second generation immigrants are at higher risk for depressive symptoms compared to non-immigrants. Methods: Representative cross-sectional data from 1499 residents of Luxembourg, aged 25 to 64 years, were collected from the Luxembourg European Health Survey (EHES-LUX). Depressive symptoms were defined as a score of ≥5 on the Patient Health Questionnaire for depression (PHQ-9) (i.e. mild, moderate or severe). Standard and Bayesian regression models were used to examine associations between depressive symptoms, immigration status and geographic distribution across Luxembourg. Results: The prevalence of depressive symptoms was 21.55% (15.54% mild, 3.54% moderate, and 2.49% moderately severe to severe). The odds of having depressive symptoms was higher among second generation immigrants compared to non-immigrants (OR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.41), independent of socioeconomic and behavioral characteristics. Healthier diet, higher social support and good health perception were protective towards experiencing depressive symptoms. One of the highest likelihoods of reporting depressive symptoms was observed in the South-West of the country with a positive effect at 80% credible region [CR] (1.42 [0.92, 2.73]). Limitations: The participation rate was low (26.7%). The cross-sectional nature of the study does not allow us to establish causality. Conclusions: Depression constitutes an important public health challenge in Luxembourg due to the impact on the overall health of the population. Social programs of health promotion should be developed to improve mental wellbeing in immigrants, especially those of second generation.

Objectives Hospital board members are asked to consider large amounts of quality and safety data with a duty to act on signals of poor performance. However, in order to do so it is necessary to distinguish signals from noise (chance). This article investigates whether data in English National Health Service (NHS) acute care hospital board papers are presented in a way that helps board members consider the role of chance in their decisions. Methods Thirty English NHS trusts were selected at random and their board papers retrieved. Charts depicting quality and safety were identified. Categorical discriminations were then performed to document the methods used to present quality and safety data in board papers, with particular attention given to whether and how the charts depicted the role of chance, that is, by including control lines or error bars. Results Thirty board papers, containing a total of 1488 charts, were sampled. Only 88 (6%) of these charts depicted the role of chance, and only 17 of the 30 board papers included any charts depicting the role of chance. Of the 88 charts that attempted to represent the role of chance, 16 included error bars and 72 included control lines. Only 6 (8%) of the 72 control charts indicated where the control lines had been set (eg, 2 vs 3 SDs). Conclusions Hospital board members are expected to consider large amounts of information. Control charts can help board members distinguish signals from noise, but often boards are not using them. We discuss demand-side and supply-side barriers that could be overcome to increase use of control charts in healthcare.

Saritha P Viswan,1 T K Sundari Ravindran,1,2 Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala,1,3,4 Max G Petzold,1,5 Sharon Fonn1 1School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; 2Achutha Menon Centre for Health Science Studies, Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology, Trivandrum, Kerala, India; 3Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; 4Department of Mathematics, Physics and Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Environment, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK; 5Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden Context: The persistent low contraceptive use and high fertility in Nigeria despite improvements in educational achievements calls for an examination of the role of factors, which may moderate the use of modern contraception. This article explores the influence of sexual autonomy on the use of modern contraceptive methods among women and its relative importance compared with other, more traditional, indicators of women’s autonomy such as education and occupation.Data and methods: Data from two Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), 2008 and 2013, were used in this study. An index of sexual autonomy was constructed by combining related DHS variables, and its association with current use of modern contraception was examined at each time point as well as over time using multivariate regression analysis.Results: The observed prevalence for use of modern contraception was 2.8 and 2.6 times higher among women who had high sexual autonomy in 2008 and 2013, respectively. The corresponding figures for women with secondary or higher education were 8.2 and 11.8 times higher, respectively, compared with women with no education. But after controlling for wealth index, religion, place of residence, autonomy and experience of intimate partner violence (IPV), the likel

Objective: Sleep problems are associated with mortality in Western populations. In low-resource settings, evidence of sleep problems and their potential association with mortality is lacking. Our study aimed to fill this gap by examining the prospective association of sleep problems with mortality among older adults in rural South Africa, as well as potential sex differences in this association. Methods: The study was conducted in 2006 in Agincourt (South Africa), as part of the Health and Demographic Surveillance System. A community-wide sample of 4044 men and women aged 50 years or older participated in the survey. Two measures of sleep quality over the last 30 days were assessed alongside sociodemographic variables, measures of quality of life (QoL), and functional ability. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for mortality risk over time associated with the two sleep measures at baseline, while allowing adjustment for other covariates. Results: Overall, 394 deaths occurred during 3 years of follow-up. Both men and women reporting severe/extreme nocturnal sleep problems (vs none/mild/moderate) experienced a significantly greater mortality risk in models adjusted for sociodemographic variables only (HR, 1.65 [95% CI, 1.18-2.31] and HR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.07-1.88], respectively). However, these associations were nonsignificant in fully adjusted models (HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 0.85-1.79] and HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 0.78-1.47], respectively). Men who reported severe/extreme difficulty related to daytime function (vs none/mild/moderate) experienced a 2-fold increased mortality risk (HR, 2.01 [95% CI, 1.32-3.07]) in fully adjusted models, whereas no significant association was observed for women (1.16 [95% CI, 0.80-1.67]). Conclusions: In this population, nocturnal sleep problems were not associated with mortality once analyses were adjusted for QoL, functional ability, and psychologic comorbidities. By contrast, se

Childhood mortality is an important indicator of overall health and development in a country. It is the result of a complex interplay of determinants at many levels, and as such several studies have recognized that, for instance, maternal (Caldwell 1979; Cleland and van Ginneken 1988), socio-economic (Castro-Leal et al. 1999; Wagstaff 2001), and environmental (Wolfe and Behrman 1982; Lee et al. 1997) factors are important determinants of childhood mortality. However, only a few studies have incorporated environmental factors that are spatial in nature and derived from geographic databases, such as distances from households or communities (Watson et al. 1997).

More than ten million women die or experience adverse consequences during pregnancy and childbirth each year (WHO 2005). Furthermore, nearly nine million children under the ages of 5 years die each year, largely from preventable and treatable diseases (UNICEF 2010). The hardest hit countries in poor maternal health (defined as the health of mothers during pregnancy, childbirth, and in the postpartum period) and child health (defined as the health of children from birth through adolescence) are in the developing world. For example, the global estimates of maternal and child mortality rates in 2008 were at 260 per 100,000 and 60 per 1,000 live births, respectively. The rates ranged from 21 to 620 and 13 to 127 respectively, with the African region at the top of both ranges (WHO 2011)

Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala,1 Eugene K Campbell,2 Serai Dan Rakgoasi,2 Banyana C Madi-Segwagwe,3 Thabo T Fako41University of Warwick, Warwick Medical School, Division of Health Sciences; Populations, Evidence and Technologies Group, Warwick Evidence, Coventry, UK; 2Department of Population Studies, University of Botswana, 3SADC Secretariat, Directorate of Social and Human Development and Special Programmes, 4Vice Chancellor's Office, University of Botswana, Gaborone, BotswanaBackground: Botswana has the second-highest human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rate in the world, with one in three adults infected. However, there is significant geographic variation at the district level and HIV prevalence is heterogeneous with the highest prevalence recorded in Selebi-Phikwe and North East. There is a lack of age-and location-adjusted prevalence maps that could be used for targeting HIV educational programs and efficient allocation of resources to higher risk groups.Methods: We used a nationally representative household survey to investigate and explain district level inequalities in HIV rates. A Bayesian geoadditive mixed model based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques was applied to map the geographic distribution of HIV prevalence in the 26 districts, accounting simultaneously for individual, household, and area factors using the 2008 Botswana HIV Impact Survey.Results: Overall, HIV prevalence was 17.6%, which was higher among females (20.4%) than males (14.3%). HIV prevalence was higher in cities and towns (20.3%) than in urban villages and rural areas (16.6% and 16.9%, respectively). We also observed an inverse U-shape association between age and prevalence of HIV, which had a different pattern in males and females. HIV prevalence was lowest among those aged 24 years or less and HIV affected over a third of those aged 25–35 years, before reaching a peak among the 36–49-year age group, after which the rate of HIV infection decreased by