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Antidepressants are widely prescribed, but their efficacy relative to placebo is modest, in part because the clinical diagnosis of major depression encompasses biologically heterogeneous conditions. Here, we sought to identify a neurobiological signature of response to antidepressant treatment as compared to placebo. We designed a latent-space machine-learning algorithm tailored for resting-state electroencephalography (EEG) and applied it to data from the largest imaging-coupled, placebo-controlled antidepressant study (n = 309). Symptom improvement was robustly predicted in a manner both specific for the antidepressant sertraline (versus placebo) and generalizable across different study sites and EEG equipment. This sertraline-predictive EEG signature generalized to two depression samples, wherein it reflected general antidepressant medication responsivity and related differentially to a repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation treatment outcome. Furthermore, we found that the sertraline resting-state EEG signature indexed prefrontal neural responsivity, as measured by concurrent transcranial magnetic stimulation and EEG. Our findings advance the neurobiological understanding of antidepressant treatment through an EEG-tailored computational model and provide a clinical avenue for personalized treatment of depression.

The efficacy of antidepressant treatment for depression is controversial due to the only modest superiority demonstrated over placebo. However, neurobiological heterogeneity within depression may limit overall antidepressant efficacy. We sought to identify a neurobiological phenotype responsive to antidepressant treatment by testing pretreatment brain activation during response to, and regulation of, emotional conflict as a moderator of the clinical benefit of the antidepressant sertraline versus placebo. Using neuroimaging data from a large randomized controlled trial, we found widespread moderation of clinical benefits by brain activity during regulation of emotional conflict, in which greater downregulation of conflict-responsive regions predicted better sertraline outcomes. Treatment-predictive machine learning using brain metrics outperformed a model trained on clinical and demographic variables. Our findings demonstrate that antidepressant response is predicted by brain activity underlying a key self-regulatory emotional capacity. Leveraging brain-based measures in psychiatry will forge a path toward better treatment personalization, refined mechanistic insights and improved outcomes.