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Deep-seabed polymetallic nodule mining can have multiple adverse effects on benthic communities, such as permanent loss of habitat by removal of nodules and habitat modification of sediments. One tool to manage biodiversity risks is the mitigation hierarchy, including avoidance, minimization of impacts, rehabilitation and/or restoration, and offset. We initiated long-term restoration experiments at sites in polymetallic nodule exploration contract areas in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone that were (i) cleared of nodules by a preprototype mining vehicle, (ii) disturbed by dredge or sledge, (iii) undisturbed, and (iv) naturally devoid of nodules. To accommodate for habitat loss, we deployed >2000 artificial ceramic nodules to study the possible effect of substrate provision on the recovery of biota and its impact on sediment biogeochemistry. Seventy-five nodules were recovered after eight weeks and had not been colonized by any sessile epifauna. All other nodules will remain on the seafloor for several years before recovery. Furthermore, to account for habitat modification of the top sediment layer, sediment in an epibenthic sledge track was loosened by a metal rake to test the feasibility of sediment decompaction to facilitate soft-sediment recovery. Analyses of granulometry and nutrients one month after sediment decompaction revealed that sand fractions are proportionally lower within the decompacted samples, whereas total organic carbon values are higher. Considering the slow natural recovery rates of deep-sea communities, these experiments represent the beginning of a ~30-year study during which we expect to gain insights into the nature and timing of the development of hard-substrate communities and the influence of nodules on the recovery of disturbed sediment communities. Results will help us understand adverse long-term effects of nodule removal, providing an evidence base for setting criteria for the definition of “serious harm” to the environment. Furthermore, a

Background: We examined educational inequalities in hazardous drinking prevalence among individuals aged 50 or more in 14 European countries, and explored educational inequalities in mortality in hazardous drinkers in European regions. Methods: We analyzed data from waves 4, 5 and 6 of the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We estimated age-standardized hazardous drinking prevalence, and prevalence ratios (PR) of hazardous drinking by country and educational level using Poisson regression models with robust variance. We estimated the relative index of inequality (RII) for all-cause mortality among hazardous drinkers and non-hazardous drinkers using Cox proportional hazards regression models and for each region (North, South, East and West). Results: In men, educational inequalities in hazardous drinking were not observed (PRmedium = 1.09 [95%CI: 0.98–1.21] and PRhigh = 0.99 [95%CI: 0.88–1.10], ref. low), while in they were observed in women, having the highest hazardous drinking prevalence in the highest educational levels (PRmedium = 1.28 [95%CI: 1.15–1.42] and PRhigh = 1.53 [95%CI: 1.36–1.72]). Overall, the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) in all-cause mortality among hazardous drinkers was 1.12 [95%CI: 1.03–1.22] among men and 1.10 [95%CI: 0.97–1.25] among women. Educational inequalities among hazardous drinkers were observed in Eastern Europe for both men (RIIhazardous = 1.21 [95%CI: 1.01–1.45]) and women (RIIhazardous = 1.46 [95%CI: 1.13–1.87]). Educational inequalities in mortality among non-hazardous drinkers were observed in Southern, Western and Eastern Europe among men, and in Eastern Europe among women. Conclusions: Higher educational attainment is positively associated with hazardous drinking prevalence among women, but not among men in most of the analyzed European countries. Clear educational inequalities in mortality among hazardous drinkers were only observed in Eastern Europe. Further research on the associations between alc

Networks of mass flows describe the basic structure of ecosystems as food webs, and of economy as input–output tables. Matter leaving a node in these networks can return to it immediately as part of a reciprocal flow, or completing a longer, multi-node cycle. Previous research comparing cycling of matter in ecosystems and economy was limited by relying on unweighted or few networks. Overcoming this limitation, we study mass cycling in large datasets of weighted real-world networks: 169 mostly aquatic food webs and 155 economic networks. We quantify cycling as the portion of all flows that is due to cycles, known as the Finn Cycling Index (FCI). We find no correlation between FCI and the largest eigenvalues of unweighted adjacency matrices used as a cycling proxy in the past. Unweighted networks ignore the actual flow values that in reality can differ by even 10 orders of magnitude. FCI can be decomposed into a sum of contributions of individual nodes. This enables us to quantify how organisms recycling dead organic matter dominate mass cycling in weighted food webs. FCI of food webs has a geometric mean of 5%. We observe lower average mass cycling in the economic networks. The global production network had an FCI of 3.7% in 2011. Cycling in economic networks (input–output tables and trade relationships) and food webs strongly correlates with reciprocity. Encouraging reciprocity could enhance cycling in the economy by acting locally, without the need to perfectly know its global structure.

While population ageing is rising, the educational composition of the elderly remains rather heterogeneous. This study assesses the educational differences in future population ageing in Asia and Europe, and how future population ageing in Asia and Europe would change if the educational composition of its populations changed. A comparative population ageing measure (the Comparative Prospective Old-Age Threshold [CPOAT]) was used, which recalculates old-age thresholds after accounting for differences in life expectancy, and the likelihood of adults surviving to higher ages. Combined data from projected age- and sex-specific life-tables (from the United Nations) and projected age- and sex-specific survival ratios by different levels of education (from the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital) were used to construct projected life-tables (2015–2020, …, 2045–2050) by educational level and sex for different regions of Asia and Europe. Based on these life-tables, future comparative prospective old-age thresholds by educational level and sex were calculated. It was found that in both Asia and Europe, and among both men and women, the projected old-age thresholds are higher for higher educated people than for less-educated people. While Europe has a larger projected share of elderly in the population than Asia, Europe’s older population is better educated. In alternative future scenarios in which populations hypothetically have higher levels of education, the projected shares of elderly in the population decrease across all regions of Asia and Europe, but more so in Asia. The results highlight the effectiveness of investing in education as a policy response to the challenges associated with population ageing in Asia and Europe. Such investments are more effective in the Asian regions, where the educational infrastructure is less developed.

Networks of mass flows describe the basic structure of ecosystems as food webs, and of economy as input–output tables. Matter leaving a node in these networks can return to it immediately as part of a reciprocal flow, or completing a longer, multi-node cycle. Previous research comparing cycling of matter in ecosystems and economy was limited by relying on unweighted or few networks. Overcoming this limitation, we study mass cycling in large datasets of weighted real-world networks: 169 mostly aquatic food webs and 155 economic networks. We quantify cycling as the portion of all flows that is due to cycles, known as the Finn Cycling Index (FCI). We find no correlation between FCI and the largest eigenvalues of unweighted adjacency matrices used as a cycling proxy in the past. Unweighted networks ignore the actual flow values that in reality can differ by even 10 orders of magnitude. FCI can be decomposed into a sum of contributions of individual nodes. This enables us to quantify how organisms recycling dead organic matter dominate mass cycling in weighted food webs. FCI of food webs has a geometric mean of 5%. We observe lower average mass cycling in the economic networks. The global production network had an FCI of 3.7% in 2011. Cycling in economic networks (input–output tables and trade relationships) and food webs strongly correlates with reciprocity. Encouraging reciprocity could enhance cycling in the economy by acting locally, without the need to perfectly know its global structure.

Aim To forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015–2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change. Methods For the French national population aged 25–90 years (1979–2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change). Results Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6–14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1–23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7–1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2–2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline). Conclusion Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France’s levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents.

Objective To estimate smoking-attributable mortality in the long-term future in 29 European countries using a novel data-driven forecasting approach that integrates the wave pattern of the smoking epidemic and the cohort dimension. Methods We estimated and forecasted age-specific and age-standardised smoking-attributable mortality fractions (SAMF) and 95% projection intervals for 29 European countries by sex, 1950–2100, using age-period-cohort modelling with a generalised logit link function. We projected the (decelerating) period increases (women) by a quadratic curve to obtain future declines, and extrapolated the past period decline (men). In addition, we extrapolated the recent cohort trend. Results SAMF among men are projected to decline from, on average, 25% in 2014 (11% (Sweden)—41% (Hungary)) to 11% in 2040 (range: 6.3%–15.4%), 7% in 2065 (range: 5.9%–9.4%) and 6% in 2100. SAMF among women in 21 non-Eastern European countries, currently at an average of 16%, are projected to reach peak levels in 2013 (Northern Europe), 2019 (Western Europe), 2027 (Greece, Italy) and 2022 (Central Europe), with maximum levels of, on average, 17% (8% (Greece)—28% (Denmark)), and to decline to 10% in 2040 (range: 4%–20%), 5% in 2065 (range: 3.5%–7.6%) and 4% in 2100. For women, a short-term shift in the peak of the inverse U-shaped age pattern to higher ages is projected, and crossovers between the age-specific trends. Conclusion Our novel forecasting method enabled realistic estimates of the mortality imprint of the smoking epidemic in Europe up to 2100. The high peak values in smoking-attributable mortality projected for women warrant attention.

Introduction Smoking contributes substantially to mortality levels and trends. Its role in country differences in mortality has, however, hardly been quantified. The current study formally assesses the—so far unknown—changing contribution of smoking to country differences in life expectancy at birth (e0) across Europe. Methods Using all-cause mortality data and indirectly estimated smoking-attributable mortality rates by age and sex for 30 European countries from 1985 to 2014, the differences in e0 between each individual European country and the weighted average were decomposed into a smoking- and a nonsmoking-related part. Results In 2014, e0 ranged from 70.8 years in Russia to 83.1 years in Switzerland. Men exhibited larger country differences than women (variance of 21.9 and 7.0 years, respectively). Country differences in e0 increased up to 2005 and declined thereafter. Among men, the average contribution of smoking to the country differences in e0 was highest around 1990 (47%) and declined to 35% in 2014. Among women, the average relative contribution of smoking declined from 1991 to 2011, and smoking resulted in smaller differences with the average e0 level in the majority of European countries. For both sexes combined, the contribution of smoking to country differences in e0 was higher than 20% throughout the period. Conclusions Smoking contributed substantially to the country differences in e0 in Europe, their increases up to 1991, and their decreases since 2005, especially among men. Policies that discourage smoking can help to reduce inequalities in mortality levels across Europe in the long run. Implications Smoking contributes substantially to country differences in life expectancy at birth (e0) in Europe, particularly among men, for whom the contribution was highest around 1990 (47%) and declined to 35% in 2014. In line with the anticipated progression of the smoking epidemic, the differences between European countri

During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, governments set recommendations and restrictions that have given rise to new situations that require residents to deliberate and respond nonautomatically. For highly impulsive individuals, dealing with these situations may be harder, as they tend to deliberate less about the consequences of their behaviors. In this study, we investigate the relationship between impulsivity and delay discounting on the one hand and compliance with COVID-19 restrictions on the other hand. We distinguish between compliance with social distancing measures and compliance with hygiene measures. Regression analyses of an international sample of 6759 students from seven European countries reveal that the self-reported personality construct of impulsivity is negatively related to both types of compliance behavior. However, and unexpectedly, we also find a weak positive association between the discount rate—as measured by a behavioral task—and compliance. Our study highlights the importance of individual differences in impulsivity in regard to compliance with public health measures during a pandemic.

Background Of all lifestyle behaviours, smoking caused the most deaths in the last century. Because of the time lag between the act of smoking and dying from smoking, and because males generally take up smoking before females do, male and female smoking epidemiology often follows a typical double wave pattern dubbed the ‘smoking epidemic’. How are male and female deaths from this epidemic differentially progressing in high-income regions on a cohort-by-age basis? How have they affected male-female survival differences? Methods We used data for the period 1950–2015 from the WHO Mortality Database and the Human Mortality Database on three geographic regions that have progressed most into the smoking epidemic: high-income North America, high-income Europe and high-income Oceania. We examined changes in smoking-attributable mortality fractions as estimated by the Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method by age (ages 50–85) across birth cohorts 1870–1965. We used these to trace sex differences with and without smoking-attributable mortality in period life expectancy between ages 50 and 85. Results In all three high-income regions, smoking explained up to 50% of sex differences in period life expectancy between ages 50 and 85 over the study period. These sex differences have declined since at least 1980, driven by smoking-attributable mortality, which tended to decline in males and increase in females overall. Thus, there was a convergence between sexes across recent cohorts. While smoking-attributable mortality was still increasing for older female cohorts, it was declining for females in the more recent cohorts in the US and Europe, as well as for males in all three regions. Conclusions The smoking epidemic contributed substantially to the male-female survival gap and to the recent narrowing of that gap in high-income North America, high-income Europe and high-income Oceania. The precipitous decline in smoking-attributable mortality in recent cohorts bode

While population ageing is rising, the educational composition of elderly is rather heterogeneous. We assess educational differences in future population ageing in Asia and Europe and how future population ageing in Asia and Europe would change if the educational composition of its populations would change. We do so using a comparative population ageing measure that recalculates old-age thresholds after accounting for differences in life expectancy, and the likelihood of adults surviving to higher ages. We construct projected life-tables (2015-2020, …, 2045-2050) by educational level and sex for different regions of Asia and Europe. Based on these life-tables we calculated the future comparative prospective old-age thresholds by educational level and sex. We find that in both Asia and Europe and among both men and women, the projected old-age thresholds are higher for higher educated people than for less educated people. While Europe has a larger projected share of elderly in the population than Asia, Europe’s older population is better educated. In alternate future scenarios in which populations hypothetically have higher levels of education, the projected shares of elderly in the population decrease across all regions of Asia and Europe, but more so in Asia. Our results highlight the effectiveness of investing in education as a policy response to the challenges associated with population ageing in Asia and Europe. Such investments are more effective in the Asian regions, where the educational infrastructure is less developed.

Deep-sea mining for polymetallic nodules is expected to have severe environmental impacts because not only nodules but also benthic fauna and the upper reactive sediment layer are removed through the mining operation and blanketed by resettling material from the suspended sediment plume. This study aims to provide a holistic assessment of the biogeochemical recovery after a disturbance event by applying prognostic simulations based on an updated diagenetic background model and validated against novel data on microbiological processes. It was found that the recovery strongly depends on the impact type; complete removal of the reactive surface sediment reduces benthic release of nutrients over centuries, while geochemical processes after resuspension and mixing of the surface sediment are near the pre-impact state 1 year after the disturbance. Furthermore, the geochemical impact in the DISturbance and reCOLonization (DISCOL) experiment area would be mitigated to some degree by a clay-bound Fe(II)-reaction layer, impeding the downward diffusion of oxygen, thus stabilizing the redox zonation of the sediment during transient post-impact recovery. The interdisciplinary (geochemical, numerical and biological) approach highlights the closely linked nature of benthic ecosystem functions, e.g. through bioturbation, microbial biomass and nutrient fluxes, which is also of great importance for the system recovery. It is, however, important to note that the nodule ecosystem may never recover to the pre-impact state without the essential hard substrate and will instead be dominated by different faunal communities, functions and services.

Introduction: Obesity constitutes a major public health problem in Europe, but how the obesity epidemic in European countries will evolve remains unknown. Most previous obesity projections considered the short-term future only, focused on single non-European countries, and projected ongoing increases foremost. We comparatively project obesity prevalence into the long-term future for 18 European countries and the USA. Data: We used national age-specific (20–84 years) and sex-specific obesity prevalence estimates (1975–2016) from the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) 2017 study, which are based on available measured height and weight data, supplemented with estimates from a Bayesian hierarchical model. Methods: We projected age- and sex-specific obesity prevalence up to the year 2100 by integrating the notion of a wave-shaped obesity epidemic into conventional age-period projections. Results: In 1990–2016, the increasing trends in obesity prevalence were decelerating. Obesity is expected to reach maximum levels between 2030 and 2052 among men, and between 2026 and 2054 among women. The maximum levels will likely be reached first in The Netherlands, USA, and UK, and last in Switzerland; and are expected to be highest in the USA and UK, and lowest in The Netherlands for men and Denmark for women. In 2060, obesity prevalence is expected to be lowest among Dutch men and highest among Swiss men. The projected age-specific obesity prevalence levels have an inverse U-shape, peaking at around the age of 60–69 years. Discussion: Applying our novel approach to the NCD-RisC 2017 data, obesity prevalence is expected to reach maximum levels between 2026 and 2054, with the USA and UK reaching the highest maximum levels first, followed by other European countries.

We project (age-specific) alcohol-attributable mortality up to 2060 in 26 European countries by carefully assessing past trends and applying advanced projecting techniques. We used estimated sex and age-specific alcohol-attributable mortality fractions (AAMF) among the national populations aged 20-84, for 1990 up to 2016, from the Global Burden of Disease Study, which we adjusted at older ages. We applied age-period-cohort modelling and projection, and avoided unrealistic future crossovers and differences in age-standardised AAMF between sexes and country groups, by implementing different lower bounds and by enabling that current (stagnating) increases are turned into declines. We find that in 2016, age-standardised AAMF were substantially higher among men (10.1%) than women (3.3%), and were much higher in Eastern Europe (14.3%) than in Western Europe (8.2%) among men. From 1990 to 2016, age-standardised AAMF mostly increased in Eastern and North-western Europe, and then declined or stagnated; whereas in South-western Europe, AAMF mostly declined, albeit with decelerations, particularly among men. We project that in the future, AAMF levels will decline in all countries, and will converge across countries, but that for men, levels will be higher in Eastern and South-western Europe than in North-western Europe. For 2060, projected AAMF are, on average, 5.1% among men and 1.4% among women. In sum, the share of mortality due to alcohol is projected to eventually decline in all 26 European countries, and to converge across countries and sexes. Particularly for Eastern and North-western European countries, achieving these projected declines will require strong, ongoing public health action.

This article provides a detailed and overarching illustration of the contribution of smoking to sex differences in life expectancy at birth (e0) in Europe, focusing on changes over time and differences between both European countries and European regions. For this purpose, the sex difference in e0 for 31 European countries over the 1950–2014 period was decomposed into a smoking- and a non-smoking-related part, using all-cause mortality data and indirectly estimated smoking-attributable mortality rates by age and sex, and a formal decomposition analysis. It was found that smoking-attributable mortality contributed, on average, 3 years (43.5%) to the 7-year life expectancy difference between women and men in 2014. This contribution, was largest in 1995, at 5.2 out of 9.0 years, and subsequently declined in parallel with the average sex difference in life expectancy. The average contribution of smoking-attributable mortality was especially large in North-Western Europe around 1975; in Southern Europe around 1985; and in Eastern Europe around 1990–1995, when smoking-attributable mortality reached maximum levels among men, but was still low among women. The observed parallel decline from 1995 onwards in the sex differences in e0 and the absolute contribution of smoking to this sex difference suggests that this recent decline in the sex difference in e0 can be almost fully explained by historical changes in sex differences in smoking, and, consequently, smoking-attributable mortality. In line with the progression of the smoking epidemic, the sex differences in life expectancy in Europe are expected to further decline in the future.

Background The high mortality rates in the European Union (EU) Member States that acceded in 2004 sparked political interest in mortality convergence. Whether mortality is converging in the EU remains unclear. We reviewed the literature on mortality convergence in the post-2004 EU territory as a whole. We also explored whether the study designs influenced the results and whether any determinants of mortality convergence had been empirically examined. Methods A systematic literature review was performed. Our search included scientific databases and the websites of international governmental institutions and European demographic research institutes. Results We uncovered 94 unique records and included seven studies that reported on 36 analyses. There was marked methodological heterogeneity, including in the convergence measures (beta and sigma convergence). All of the beta convergence analyses found narrowing mortality differentials, whereas most of the sigma convergence analyses found widening mortality differentials. The results are robust to the units of analysis and mortality and dispersion measures. Our results also suggest that there is a lack of evidence on the determinants of mortality convergence in the EU. Conclusions There is general agreement that the EU regions and the Member States with high initial mortality rates improved the fastest, but this trend did not lead to overall mortality convergence in the EU. The harmonization of mortality convergence measures and research into determinants of mortality convergence are needed to support future EU cohesion policy. Policy-makers should consider supporting areas that have moderate but stagnant mortality rates, in addition to those with high mortality rates.