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Comparing the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services with quantitative scenarios is essential in the decision-making process for a sustainable management of forest landscapes. In Sweden, an intensified forest management will likely be necessary to meet future demands of woody biomass as a source of bioenergy and building materials. At the same time an intensified forest harvest can cause conflicts with goals for biodiversity conservation and reduce the amount of carbon being stored the forest. This study conducted a scenario analysis to evaluate how different types of forest management would affect changes in carbon stock between the above ground biomass in a Swedish forest and the biomass harvested from the forest. Potential conflicts between the harvesting scenarios and the in Sweden critically endangered White-backed Woodpecker (Dendrocopos leucotos) was also evaluated. The White-backed Woodpecker can be seen as an umbrella species, which means that there are about 200 other endangered plant and animal species that depend on the same kind of forest environments and could therefore be a measure of the state of the forest biodiversity in Sweden. The forest landscape model LANDIS-II was used to simulate vegetation dynamics in species composition, age structure and biomass while considering disturbances only from harvesting. The simulation had a 100-year timeframe and used initial conditions gathered from a previous case study done in Sweden. The IPCC’s representative concentration pathway 4.5 was used to simulate impact from climate change. A business as usual scenario was simulated along with an intensified harvesting scenario and a conservation scenario to evaluate the impact on carbon sequestration in the aboveground biomass and the impact on the White-backed Woodpecker habitat between different forest management scenarios. The change in the stored and harvested carbon was calculated using the Carbon Stock Change Method and by comparing the, Att jämföra det framtida tillståndet för naturkapital och ekosystemtjänster med kvantitativa scenarier är väsentligt i beslutsprocessen för en hållbar förvaltning av skogslandskap. I Sverige kommer sannolikt ett intensifierat skogsbruk att bli nödvändigt för att möta framtida krav på biomassa till bioenergi och byggmaterial. Samtidigt kan en intensifierad skogsavverkning orsaka konflikter med målet att bevara biologisk mångfald och öka mängden kol lagrad i skogen. Denna studie genomförde en scenarioanalys för att utvärdera hur olika typer av skogsskötsel påverkar i kolbalansen i en svensk skog och mängden biomassa som avverkas från skogen. Potentiella konflikter mellan skogsskötsel och den i Sverige kritiskt hotade vitryggiga hackspetten (Dendrocopos leucotos) utvärderades också. Den vitryggiga hackspetten kan ses som en paraplyart, vilket innebär att det finns cirka 200 andra hotade växt- och djurarter som är beroende av samma sorts skogsmiljöer, och den kan därför vara ett mått på tillståndet för den skogsknutna biologiska mångfalden i Sverige. Skogslandskapsmodellen LANDIS-II användes för att simulera vegetationsdynamik för artsammansättning, åldersstruktur och biomassa samtidigt som man beaktade störningar endast från avverkning. Simuleringen gjorde för en 100-årsperiod och använde initiala förutsättningar från en tidigare fallstudie gjord i Sverige. IPCC:s representativa koncentrationsväg 4.5 användes för att simulera påverkan från klimatförändringar. Ett "business as usual"-scenario simulerades tillsammans med ett intensifierat avverkningsscenario och ett bevarandescenario för att utvärdera påverkan på kolbindning i den stående biomassan och påverkan på habitat för vitryggig hackspett mellan olika skogsskötselscenarier. Förändringen i det lagrade kolet beräknades med hjälp av ”Carbon Stock Change”-metoden och genom att jämföra de initiala biomassavärdena med värdena från de senaste tio åren av simuleringen. Ett habitatlämplighetspoäng gjordes med avseende på t

Comparing the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services with quantitative scenarios is essential in the decision-making process for a sustainable management of forest landscapes. In Sweden, an intensified forest management will likely be necessary to meet future demands of woody biomass as a source of bioenergy and building materials. At the same time an intensified forest harvest can cause conflicts with goals for biodiversity conservation and reduce the amount of carbon being stored the forest. This study conducted a scenario analysis to evaluate how different types of forest management would affect changes in carbon stock between the above ground biomass in a Swedish forest and the biomass harvested from the forest. Potential conflicts between the harvesting scenarios and the in Sweden critically endangered White-backed Woodpecker (Dendrocopos leucotos) was also evaluated. The White-backed Woodpecker can be seen as an umbrella species, which means that there are about 200 other endangered plant and animal species that depend on the same kind of forest environments and could therefore be a measure of the state of the forest biodiversity in Sweden. The forest landscape model LANDIS-II was used to simulate vegetation dynamics in species composition, age structure and biomass while considering disturbances only from harvesting. The simulation had a 100-year timeframe and used initial conditions gathered from a previous case study done in Sweden. The IPCC’s representative concentration pathway 4.5 was used to simulate impact from climate change. A business as usual scenario was simulated along with an intensified harvesting scenario and a conservation scenario to evaluate the impact on carbon sequestration in the aboveground biomass and the impact on the White-backed Woodpecker habitat between different forest management scenarios. The change in the stored and harvested carbon was calculated using the Carbon Stock Change Method and by comparing the, Att jämföra det framtida tillståndet för naturkapital och ekosystemtjänster med kvantitativa scenarier är väsentligt i beslutsprocessen för en hållbar förvaltning av skogslandskap. I Sverige kommer sannolikt ett intensifierat skogsbruk att bli nödvändigt för att möta framtida krav på biomassa till bioenergi och byggmaterial. Samtidigt kan en intensifierad skogsavverkning orsaka konflikter med målet att bevara biologisk mångfald och öka mängden kol lagrad i skogen. Denna studie genomförde en scenarioanalys för att utvärdera hur olika typer av skogsskötsel påverkar i kolbalansen i en svensk skog och mängden biomassa som avverkas från skogen. Potentiella konflikter mellan skogsskötsel och den i Sverige kritiskt hotade vitryggiga hackspetten (Dendrocopos leucotos) utvärderades också. Den vitryggiga hackspetten kan ses som en paraplyart, vilket innebär att det finns cirka 200 andra hotade växt- och djurarter som är beroende av samma sorts skogsmiljöer, och den kan därför vara ett mått på tillståndet för den skogsknutna biologiska mångfalden i Sverige. Skogslandskapsmodellen LANDIS-II användes för att simulera vegetationsdynamik för artsammansättning, åldersstruktur och biomassa samtidigt som man beaktade störningar endast från avverkning. Simuleringen gjorde för en 100-årsperiod och använde initiala förutsättningar från en tidigare fallstudie gjord i Sverige. IPCC:s representativa koncentrationsväg 4.5 användes för att simulera påverkan från klimatförändringar. Ett "business as usual"-scenario simulerades tillsammans med ett intensifierat avverkningsscenario och ett bevarandescenario för att utvärdera påverkan på kolbindning i den stående biomassan och påverkan på habitat för vitryggig hackspett mellan olika skogsskötselscenarier. Förändringen i det lagrade kolet beräknades med hjälp av ”Carbon Stock Change”-metoden och genom att jämföra de initiala biomassavärdena med värdena från de senaste tio åren av simuleringen. Ett habitatlämplighetspoäng gjordes med avseende på t

Policy-makers face the challenge of assessing and implementing sustainability measures, while also dealing with parallel and sometimes conflicting policy agendas, long-term policy impacts, and contested interpretations of sustainability. To support evidence-based decision-making in this context, this paper presents the results from an integrated assessment of sustainability goal interactions. Links between the bio-based economy, the 2030 Agenda, and the so-called strong sustainability paradigm were explored in a regional-scale case. The analysis focused primarily on developments in the forestry and energy sectors. Direct trade-offs and synergies as well as broader systemic impacts were identified. The results show how goals from the bio-based economy, 2030 Agenda and strong sustainability paradigm are mutually interacting. Positive interactions were found within two clusters of goals, offering coherent and synergetic transition pathways within these. The first cluster encompasses developments toward intensified forestry, renewable energy, and closed-loop production systems. The second pathway supports diversified forestry and protection of critical natural capital. However, while internally coherent, trade-offs were identified between these goal clusters, demonstrating the difficulty in simultaneously making progress on goals belonging to different sustainability agendas. The results also stress the need for disaggregation and long-term assessments to identify trade-offs and synergies. Finally, the analysis highlights the theoretical potential but practical challenges of implementing the bio-based economy and 2030 Agenda in a way that adheres to strong sustainability. The analytical framework used in the present study may be adapted and applied to other decision-making contexts. It is particularly useful in settings characterized by uncertainty and unstructured problem spaces., QC 20210212

Policy-makers face the challenge of assessing and implementing sustainability measures, while also dealing with parallel and sometimes conflicting policy agendas, long-term policy impacts, and contested interpretations of sustainability. To support evidence-based decision-making in this context, this paper presents the results from an integrated assessment of sustainability goal interactions. Links between the bio-based economy, the 2030 Agenda, and the so-called strong sustainability paradigm were explored in a regional-scale case. The analysis focused primarily on developments in the forestry and energy sectors. Direct trade-offs and synergies as well as broader systemic impacts were identified. The results show how goals from the bio-based economy, 2030 Agenda and strong sustainability paradigm are mutually interacting. Positive interactions were found within two clusters of goals, offering coherent and synergetic transition pathways within these. The first cluster encompasses developments toward intensified forestry, renewable energy, and closed-loop production systems. The second pathway supports diversified forestry and protection of critical natural capital. However, while internally coherent, trade-offs were identified between these goal clusters, demonstrating the difficulty in simultaneously making progress on goals belonging to different sustainability agendas. The results also stress the need for disaggregation and long-term assessments to identify trade-offs and synergies. Finally, the analysis highlights the theoretical potential but practical challenges of implementing the bio-based economy and 2030 Agenda in a way that adheres to strong sustainability. The analytical framework used in the present study may be adapted and applied to other decision-making contexts. It is particularly useful in settings characterized by uncertainty and unstructured problem spaces.

The bio-based economy has gained increasing attention in societal and academic debates over the past two decades, and is argued to hold solutions to several pressing sustainability challenges. However, it is not yet clear if the high-reaching aspirations of the bio-based economy can be realized. The bio-based economy discourse has been criticized for being promissory, vague, and single-sector focused, thereby overlooking larger systemic impacts, trade-offs, and unintended consequences that may result from pursuing the goals of the bio-based economy. Against this background, this thesis aims to advance an integrated and systemic understanding of the transition to a bio-based economy and what it implies for sustainability. Sweden is used as an empirical case, where specific bio-based economy goals, as well as their interactions and sustainability outcomes, are examined. The focus is primarily on developments in the forestry, agriculture, and energy sectors. The analysis also seeks to identify how goals related to the bio-based economy are interconnected with goals promoted by parallel sustainability initiatives, specifically the 2030 Agenda and the associated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Integration is achieved by using systems analysis tools and methods. Further, the weak and strong sustainability paradigms, and the opposing definitions of sustainability they provide, are used to assess the contribution of the bio-based economy to sustainability. The integrated analysis provides a detailed and operational conceptualization of transition pathways to a Swedish bio-based economy. The goals of the Swedish bio-based economy are divergent and broad-reaching, emphasizing that there is no general agreement on what the transition to a bio-based economy entails. The results point to multiple barriers that need to be addressed to realize the goals of the Swedish bio-based economy. Goal conflicts constitute one such barrier. These are found internal to as well as acros

The bio-based economy has gained increasing attention in societal and academic debates over the past two decades, and is argued to hold solutions to several pressing sustainability challenges. However, it is not yet clear if the high-reaching aspirations of the bio-based economy can be realized. The bio-based economy discourse has been criticized for being promissory, vague, and single-sector focused, thereby overlooking larger systemic impacts, trade-offs, and unintended consequences that may result from pursuing the goals of the bio-based economy. Against this background, this thesis aims to advance an integrated and systemic understanding of the transition to a bio-based economy and what it implies for sustainability. Sweden is used as an empirical case, where specific bio-based economy goals, as well as their interactions and sustainability outcomes, are examined. The focus is primarily on developments in the forestry, agriculture, and energy sectors. The analysis also seeks to identify how goals related to the bio-based economy are interconnected with goals promoted by parallel sustainability initiatives, specifically the 2030 Agenda and the associated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Integration is achieved by using systems analysis tools and methods. Further, the weak and strong sustainability paradigms, and the opposing definitions of sustainability they provide, are used to assess the contribution of the bio-based economy to sustainability. The integrated analysis provides a detailed and operational conceptualization of transition pathways to a Swedish bio-based economy. The goals of the Swedish bio-based economy are divergent and broad-reaching, emphasizing that there is no general agreement on what the transition to a bio-based economy entails. The results point to multiple barriers that need to be addressed to realize the goals of the Swedish bio-based economy. Goal conflicts constitute one such barrier. These are found internal to as well as acros

The bio-based economy has gained increasing attention in societal and academic debates over the past two decades, and is argued to hold solutions to several pressing sustainability challenges. However, it is not yet clear if the high-reaching aspirations of the bio-based economy can be realized. The bio-based economy discourse has been criticized for being promissory, vague, and single-sector focused, thereby overlooking larger systemic impacts, trade-offs, and unintended consequences that may result from pursuing the goals of the bio-based economy. Against this background, this thesis aims to advance an integrated and systemic understanding of the transition to a bio-based economy and what it implies for sustainability. Sweden is used as an empirical case, where specific bio-based economy goals, as well as their interactions and sustainability outcomes, are examined. The focus is primarily on developments in the forestry, agriculture, and energy sectors. The analysis also seeks to identify how goals related to the bio-based economy are interconnected with goals promoted by parallel sustainability initiatives, specifically the 2030 Agenda and the associated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Integration is achieved by using systems analysis tools and methods. Further, the weak and strong sustainability paradigms, and the opposing definitions of sustainability they provide, are used to assess the contribution of the bio-based economy to sustainability. The integrated analysis provides a detailed and operational conceptualization of transition pathways to a Swedish bio-based economy. The goals of the Swedish bio-based economy are divergent and broad-reaching, emphasizing that there is no general agreement on what the transition to a bio-based economy entails. The results point to multiple barriers that need to be addressed to realize the goals of the Swedish bio-based economy. Goal conflicts constitute one such barrier. These are found internal to as well as acros

The bio-based economy has gained increasing attention in societal and academic debates over the past two decades, and is argued to hold solutions to several pressing sustainability challenges. However, it is not yet clear if the high-reaching aspirations of the bio-based economy can be realized. The bio-based economy discourse has been criticized for being promissory, vague, and single-sector focused, thereby overlooking larger systemic impacts, trade-offs, and unintended consequences that may result from pursuing the goals of the bio-based economy. Against this background, this thesis aims to advance an integrated and systemic understanding of the transition to a bio-based economy and what it implies for sustainability. Sweden is used as an empirical case, where specific bio-based economy goals, as well as their interactions and sustainability outcomes, are examined. The focus is primarily on developments in the forestry, agriculture, and energy sectors. The analysis also seeks to identify how goals related to the bio-based economy are interconnected with goals promoted by parallel sustainability initiatives, specifically the 2030 Agenda and the associated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Integration is achieved by using systems analysis tools and methods. Further, the weak and strong sustainability paradigms, and the opposing definitions of sustainability they provide, are used to assess the contribution of the bio-based economy to sustainability. The integrated analysis provides a detailed and operational conceptualization of transition pathways to a Swedish bio-based economy. The goals of the Swedish bio-based economy are divergent and broad-reaching, emphasizing that there is no general agreement on what the transition to a bio-based economy entails. The results point to multiple barriers that need to be addressed to realize the goals of the Swedish bio-based economy. Goal conflicts constitute one such barrier. These are found internal to as well as acros

The bio-based economy has gained increasing attention in societal and academic debates over the past two decades, and is argued to hold solutions to several pressing sustainability challenges. However, it is not yet clear if the high-reaching aspirations of the bio-based economy can be realized. The bio-based economy discourse has been criticized for being promissory, vague, and single-sector focused, thereby overlooking larger systemic impacts, trade-offs, and unintended consequences that may result from pursuing the goals of the bio-based economy. Against this background, this thesis aims to advance an integrated and systemic understanding of the transition to a bio-based economy and what it implies for sustainability. Sweden is used as an empirical case, where specific bio-based economy goals, as well as their interactions and sustainability outcomes, are examined. The focus is primarily on developments in the forestry, agriculture, and energy sectors. The analysis also seeks to identify how goals related to the bio-based economy are interconnected with goals promoted by parallel sustainability initiatives, specifically the 2030 Agenda and the associated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Integration is achieved by using systems analysis tools and methods. Further, the weak and strong sustainability paradigms, and the opposing definitions of sustainability they provide, are used to assess the contribution of the bio-based economy to sustainability. The integrated analysis provides a detailed and operational conceptualization of transition pathways to a Swedish bio-based economy. The goals of the Swedish bio-based economy are divergent and broad-reaching, emphasizing that there is no general agreement on what the transition to a bio-based economy entails. The results point to multiple barriers that need to be addressed to realize the goals of the Swedish bio-based economy. Goal conflicts constitute one such barrier. These are found internal to as well as acros

The bio-based economy has gained increasing attention in societal and academic debates over the past two decades, and is argued to hold solutions to several pressing sustainability challenges. However, it is not yet clear if the high-reaching aspirations of the bio-based economy can be realized. The bio-based economy discourse has been criticized for being promissory, vague, and single-sector focused, thereby overlooking larger systemic impacts, trade-offs, and unintended consequences that may result from pursuing the goals of the bio-based economy. Against this background, this thesis aims to advance an integrated and systemic understanding of the transition to a bio-based economy and what it implies for sustainability. Sweden is used as an empirical case, where specific bio-based economy goals, as well as their interactions and sustainability outcomes, are examined. The focus is primarily on developments in the forestry, agriculture, and energy sectors. The analysis also seeks to identify how goals related to the bio-based economy are interconnected with goals promoted by parallel sustainability initiatives, specifically the 2030 Agenda and the associated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Integration is achieved by using systems analysis tools and methods. Further, the weak and strong sustainability paradigms, and the opposing definitions of sustainability they provide, are used to assess the contribution of the bio-based economy to sustainability. The integrated analysis provides a detailed and operational conceptualization of transition pathways to a Swedish bio-based economy. The goals of the Swedish bio-based economy are divergent and broad-reaching, emphasizing that there is no general agreement on what the transition to a bio-based economy entails. The results point to multiple barriers that need to be addressed to realize the goals of the Swedish bio-based economy. Goal conflicts constitute one such barrier. These are found internal to as well as acros

Urban development trajectories are changing towards compact, energy-efficient cities and renewable energy sources, and this will strongly affect ecosystem services (ES) that cities are dependent on but tend to disregard. Such ES can be provisioning, regulating and cultural ES, around which competition over land resources will increase with energy system shifts. Much of this can be foreseen to take place within urbanising regions that are simultaneously the living environment of a major part of the human population today. In order to inform critical urban policy decisions, tools for integrated assessment of urban energy and transport options and ecosystem services need to be developed. For this purpose, a case study of the Stockholm region was conducted, analysing three scenarios for the future urbanisation of the region, integrating a transport energy perspective and an ES perspective. The results showed that a dense but polycentric development pattern gives more opportunities for sustainable urban development, while the dense monocentric scenario has apparent drawbacks from an ES perspective. The methodology is compatible with a model integration platform for urban policy support and will thus enable integrated policy assessment of complex urban systems, with the goal of increasing their sustainability., QC 20160930

Forest is a resource that is increasingly utilized for multiple purposes. The balance between energy demands and the long-term capacity of ecosystems to support biodiversity and other ecosystem services is crucial. The aim of this project was to increase the knowledge on and to develop methods and tools for trade-offs and synergies analysis among forest ecosystem services based on different forest management policies. Paper I provides an overview of existing models for integrated energy-environment assessment. A literature review was conducted on assessment models and their ability to integrate energy with environmental aspects. Missing environmental aspects concern land use, landscapes and biodiversity. In Paper II a modelling framework was set up to link a landscape simulator with a habitat network model for integrated assessment of bioenergy feedstock and biodiversity related impacts in Kronoberg County. In Paper III we continued with the same management scenarios, while the analysis was expanded to five ecosystem services by developing the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool: industrial wood, bioenergy, forest carbon stock, recreation areas and habitat networks. In Paper IV we present two heuristic methods for spatial optimization – simulated annealing (SA) and genetic algorithm (GA) – to find optimal solutions for allocating harvest activities, in order to minimize the impacts on habitat networks. In Paper V, as response to the findings in Paper I, we linked the energy model MESSAGE with our LEcA tool for forest bioenergy demand assessment while applying environmental and transport restrictions, in a study of Lithuania. We found trade-offs between industrial wood production and bioenergy on one side, and recreation values, biodiversity, and to some extent carbon storage on the other side. The LEcA tool integrated forest simulation and management with assessment of ecosystem services, which is promising for integrated sustainability assess, QC 20171023

Forest is a resource that is increasingly utilized for multiple purposes. The balance between energy demands and the long-term capacity of ecosystems to support biodiversity and other ecosystem services is crucial. The aim of this project was to increase the knowledge on and to develop methods and tools for trade-offs and synergies analysis among forest ecosystem services based on different forest management policies. Paper I provides an overview of existing models for integrated energy-environment assessment. A literature review was conducted on assessment models and their ability to integrate energy with environmental aspects. Missing environmental aspects concern land use, landscapes and biodiversity. In Paper II a modelling framework was set up to link a landscape simulator with a habitat network model for integrated assessment of bioenergy feedstock and biodiversity related impacts in Kronoberg County. In Paper III we continued with the same management scenarios, while the analysis was expanded to five ecosystem services by developing the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool: industrial wood, bioenergy, forest carbon stock, recreation areas and habitat networks. In Paper IV we present two heuristic methods for spatial optimization – simulated annealing (SA) and genetic algorithm (GA) – to find optimal solutions for allocating harvest activities, in order to minimize the impacts on habitat networks. In Paper V, as response to the findings in Paper I, we linked the energy model MESSAGE with our LEcA tool for forest bioenergy demand assessment while applying environmental and transport restrictions, in a study of Lithuania. We found trade-offs between industrial wood production and bioenergy on one side, and recreation values, biodiversity, and to some extent carbon storage on the other side. The LEcA tool integrated forest simulation and management with assessment of ecosystem services, which is promising for integrated sustainability assess, QC 20171023

Urban development trajectories are changing towards compact, energy-efficient cities and renewable energy sources, and this will strongly affect ecosystem services (ES) that cities are dependent on but tend to disregard. Such ES can be provisioning, regulating and cultural ES, around which competition over land resources will increase with energy system shifts. Much of this can be foreseen to take place within urbanising regions that are simultaneously the living environment of a major part of the human population today. In order to inform critical urban policy decisions, tools for integrated assessment of urban energy and transport options and ecosystem services need to be developed. For this purpose, a case study of the Stockholm region was conducted, analysing three scenarios for the future urbanisation of the region, integrating a transport energy perspective and an ES perspective. The results showed that a dense but polycentric development pattern gives more opportunities for sustainable urban development, while the dense monocentric scenario has apparent drawbacks from an ES perspective. The methodology is compatible with a model integration platform for urban policy support and will thus enable integrated policy assessment of complex urban systems, with the goal of increasing their sustainability.

Forest is a resource that is increasingly utilized for multiple purposes. The balance between energy demands and the long-term capacity of ecosystems to support biodiversity and other ecosystem services is crucial. The aim of this project was to increase the knowledge on and to develop methods and tools for trade-offs and synergies analysis among forest ecosystem services based on different forest management policies. Paper I provides an overview of existing models for integrated energy-environment assessment. A literature review was conducted on assessment models and their ability to integrate energy with environmental aspects. Missing environmental aspects concern land use, landscapes and biodiversity. In Paper II a modelling framework was set up to link a landscape simulator with a habitat network model for integrated assessment of bioenergy feedstock and biodiversity related impacts in Kronoberg County. In Paper III we continued with the same management scenarios, while the analysis was expanded to five ecosystem services by developing the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool: industrial wood, bioenergy, forest carbon stock, recreation areas and habitat networks. In Paper IV we present two heuristic methods for spatial optimization – simulated annealing (SA) and genetic algorithm (GA) – to find optimal solutions for allocating harvest activities, in order to minimize the impacts on habitat networks. In Paper V, as response to the findings in Paper I, we linked the energy model MESSAGE with our LEcA tool for forest bioenergy demand assessment while applying environmental and transport restrictions, in a study of Lithuania. We found trade-offs between industrial wood production and bioenergy on one side, and recreation values, biodiversity, and to some extent carbon storage on the other side. The LEcA tool integrated forest simulation and management with assessment of ecosystem services, which is promising for integrated sustainability assess, QC 20171023

Forest is a resource that is increasingly utilized for multiple purposes. The balance between energy demands and the long-term capacity of ecosystems to support biodiversity and other ecosystem services is crucial. The aim of this project was to increase the knowledge on and to develop methods and tools for trade-offs and synergies analysis among forest ecosystem services based on different forest management policies. Paper I provides an overview of existing models for integrated energy-environment assessment. A literature review was conducted on assessment models and their ability to integrate energy with environmental aspects. Missing environmental aspects concern land use, landscapes and biodiversity. In Paper II a modelling framework was set up to link a landscape simulator with a habitat network model for integrated assessment of bioenergy feedstock and biodiversity related impacts in Kronoberg County. In Paper III we continued with the same management scenarios, while the analysis was expanded to five ecosystem services by developing the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool: industrial wood, bioenergy, forest carbon stock, recreation areas and habitat networks. In Paper IV we present two heuristic methods for spatial optimization – simulated annealing (SA) and genetic algorithm (GA) – to find optimal solutions for allocating harvest activities, in order to minimize the impacts on habitat networks. In Paper V, as response to the findings in Paper I, we linked the energy model MESSAGE with our LEcA tool for forest bioenergy demand assessment while applying environmental and transport restrictions, in a study of Lithuania. We found trade-offs between industrial wood production and bioenergy on one side, and recreation values, biodiversity, and to some extent carbon storage on the other side. The LEcA tool integrated forest simulation and management with assessment of ecosystem services, which is promising for integrated sustainability assess, QC 20171023

Forest is a resource that is increasingly utilized for multiple purposes. The balance between energy demands and the long-term capacity of ecosystems to support biodiversity and other ecosystem services is crucial. The aim of this project was to increase the knowledge on and to develop methods and tools for trade-offs and synergies analysis among forest ecosystem services based on different forest management policies. Paper I provides an overview of existing models for integrated energy-environment assessment. A literature review was conducted on assessment models and their ability to integrate energy with environmental aspects. Missing environmental aspects concern land use, landscapes and biodiversity. In Paper II a modelling framework was set up to link a landscape simulator with a habitat network model for integrated assessment of bioenergy feedstock and biodiversity related impacts in Kronoberg County. In Paper III we continued with the same management scenarios, while the analysis was expanded to five ecosystem services by developing the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool: industrial wood, bioenergy, forest carbon stock, recreation areas and habitat networks. In Paper IV we present two heuristic methods for spatial optimization – simulated annealing (SA) and genetic algorithm (GA) – to find optimal solutions for allocating harvest activities, in order to minimize the impacts on habitat networks. In Paper V, as response to the findings in Paper I, we linked the energy model MESSAGE with our LEcA tool for forest bioenergy demand assessment while applying environmental and transport restrictions, in a study of Lithuania. We found trade-offs between industrial wood production and bioenergy on one side, and recreation values, biodiversity, and to some extent carbon storage on the other side. The LEcA tool integrated forest simulation and management with assessment of ecosystem services, which is promising for integrated sustainability assess, QC 20171023

Full Text, Thesis (PhD Doctorate), Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Griffith School of Environment, Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology, More than 80% of Australians and over half of the world's population now live in cities. Cities are the engines for the sustainable development of Australia, and are of critical importance for the future of the nation. Because the social, economic, ecological and institutional development of a city are increasingly interwoven, city management has become a complex enterprise. Management of complex systems such as cities requires the use of innovative, sophisticated planning approaches that can assist in monitoring current conditions and projecting future developments. It also requires a well-structured participatory process of creating social support by stakeholders for long-term city visions. This study develops an urban sustainability assessment framework and explores its use with practitioners on a real-world case study in Logan City, Queensland. The framework includes four stages, namely scoping; envisioning; experimenting and assessment and includes the use of system condition indicators, dynamic agent-based modelling and multi-criteria assessment. Within Australia, this study is significant as the first attempt to implement the framework to a metropolitan sub-region at a neighbourhood level and one of the first attempts to adapt UrbanSim for Australian planning practice. The study engaged with the proposition that to support the planning of sustainable cities, we need to study cities as interconnected, complex living systems that require a different set of practices from that used to study cities as a collection of parts that behave in predictable ways based on universal laws. An evolving paradigm that aims to meet this challenge, and applied in this study, is the social ecological system (SES) paradigm. A SES is an ecological system that is linked with and affected by one or more social systems (Anderies, 2003). Because SES differ in nature, and operate at various scales in time and space, an integrated systems approach seems to make sense to analyse the compl

More than 80% of Australians and over half of the world's population now live in cities. Cities are the engines for the sustainable development of Australia, and are of critical importance for the future of the nation. Because the social, economic, ecological and institutional development of a city are increasingly interwoven, city management has become a complex enterprise. Management of complex systems such as cities requires the use of innovative, sophisticated planning approaches that can assist in monitoring current conditions and projecting future developments. It also requires a well-structured participatory process of creating social support by stakeholders for long-term city visions. This study develops an urban sustainability assessment framework and explores its use with practitioners on a real-world case study in Logan City, Queensland. The framework includes four stages, namely scoping; envisioning; experimenting and assessment and includes the use of system condition indicators, dynamic agent-based modelling and multi-criteria assessment. Within Australia, this study is significant as the first attempt to implement the framework to a metropolitan sub-region at a neighbourhood level and one of the first attempts to adapt UrbanSim for Australian planning practice. The study engaged with the proposition that to support the planning of sustainable cities, we need to study cities as interconnected, complex living systems that require a different set of practices from that used to study cities as a collection of parts that behave in predictable ways based on universal laws. An evolving paradigm that aims to meet this challenge, and applied in this study, is the social ecological system (SES) paradigm. A SES is an ecological system that is linked with and affected by one or more social systems (Anderies, 2003). Because SES differ in nature, and operate at various scales in time and space, an integrated systems approach seems to make sense to analyse the compl, Thesis (PhD Doctorate), Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Griffith School of Environment, Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology, Full Text

El presente trabajo describe el proceso participativo vinculado al desarrollo y la implementación del prototipo de un modelo que tiene como principal objetivo servir de soporte durante el procesos de Evaluación Integrada de la Sostenibilidad (EIS) de diferentes opciones políticas de gestión de los recursos hídricos a diferentes niveles de acción. El modelo – llamado el Modelo del Mundo Celular (MMC) – se centra en la representación del comportamiento de los agentes respecto a sus relaciones sistemáticas con el medio ambiente. Esto se consigue principalmente mediante el análisis tres aspectos. En primer lugar, se analizan los intereses, motivaciones, creencias culturales y otras condiciones estructurales que condicionan la conducta de los agentes en el usos de las reservas y flujos de agua. Segundo, mediante el estudio a diferentes escalas del impacto sobre los ecosistemas naturales y el medio ambiente en general del comportamiento de los usuarios. Por último, se realiza de forma co-evolutiva el análisis del impacto de esos cambios ambientales en el comportamiento de los agentes. El MCM utiliza una perspectiva integrada, multi-escalar y basada en agentes. Los agentes operan en un único sistema interrelacionado en el cual cada individuo o agente colectivo responde a su disponibilidad y uso de un conjunto de reservas y flujos de reglas sociales e instituciones (S), energía y recursos (E) información y conocimiento (I), que a su vez provocan impactos y cambios (C) en el sistema socio-ecológico. Este modelo se está desarrollando conjuntamente con Grupos de Discusión como parte de un proceso de Evaluación Integrada participativa. En el proceso de participación intervienen actores reales involucrados en la gestión del agua que aportan su conocimiento sobre el comportamiento de los agentes y la posible arquitectura del modelo para incrementar su robustez social y su relevancia política. Nuestra investigación forma parte del proyecto MATISSE (Methods and Tools for Integrated, This paper describes the participatory process of developing and implementing a prototype model. This model is aimed at supporting integrated sustainability assessment (ISA) of policy options for managing water resources at different levels of action. The model is called the World Cellular Model (WCM). It represents agents’ behaviour in terms of their systemic relationships with the environment. This is achieved by examining three aspects. Firstly, we analyse the interests, motives, cultural beliefs and other structural conditions that drive agents’ actions with regard to their use of reserves and flows of water. Secondly, we examine different levels of the impact of agents’ behaviour on the environment and on natural ecosystems. Thirdly, we analyse in a coevolutionary way the impact of such environmental changes on the behaviour of agents. The WCM uses an integrated, multi-scale, agent-based perspective. Agents operate in a single interrelated system in which each individual or collective agent responds to the availability and use of a set of reserves and flows of social rules and/or institutions (S), energy and resources (E), information and knowledge (I) that in turn provokes environmental change (C) or impact on the social ecological system. This model is being developed with the collaboration of discussion groups, as part of a participatory integrated assessment process. Groups include people who are involved in water management. These group members have insight into agents’ behaviour and the possible architecture of the model. Their contributions can help to increase the model’s socio-ecological robustness and policy relevance. Our research is part of the EU-funded project MATISSE (Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment).

This paper describes the participatory process of developing and implementing a prototype model aimed at supporting the Integrated Sustainability Assessment of water resources and policy options at different scales. The model - called the World Cellular Model (WCM) focuses on the representation of agents’ behaviours and their systemic relationships with their environment. This is achieved by examining the interests, motives, cultural beliefs and structural resources that drive agents’ actions with regard to the use of stocks and flows of water, by looking at the impact of such water behaviours on the environment and on the natural ecosystems at different scales, and by examining in a coevolutionary way the impact of such environmental changes on the behaviours of agents. The WC model takes a ‘total system’, multi-scale, agent perspective. That is, agents operate in a single interrelated system in which each individual or collective agent responds to the availability and use of a set of stocks and flows of rules and/or institutions (S), energy and resources (E), information and knowledge (I) that in turn provokes environmental change (C) or impact on the social ecological system. . This model is being developed together with the use of participatory Integrated Assessment focus groups (IA-fgs) with real stakeholders to get insights about agents’ behaviours and the possible architecture of the model so as to increase its socio-ecological robustness and policy relevance. Our research is part of the EU funded project Matisse (Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment).