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© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Maselli, V., Oppo, D., Moore, A. L., Gusman, A. R., Mtelela, C., Iacopini, D., Taviani, M., Mjema, E., Mulaya, E., Che, M., Tomioka, A. L., Mshiu, E., & Ortiz, J. D. A 1000-yr-old tsunami in the Indian Ocean points to greater risk for East Africa: reply. Geology, 49(1), (2021): E516-E516, https://doi.org/10.1130/G48585Y.1., We appreciate Somerville’s (2020) interest in our work, and the opportunity to further expand the discussion about the occurrence of a trans-oceanic tsunami in the Indian Ocean generated by a megathrust earthquake ~1000 years ago. Somerville suggests a connection between the inferred tsunami deposit presented by us (Maselli et al., 2020) and a tsunami event reported to have occurred in Nagapattinam (India) in the year 900 CE and described in Kalaki Krishnamurty’s book (Rastogi and Jaiswal, 2006).

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Maselli, V., Oppo, D., Moore, A. L., Gusman, A. R., Mtelela, C., Iacopini, D., Taviani, M., Mjema, E., Mulaya, E., Che, M., Tomioka, A. L., Mshiu, E., & Ortiz, J. D. A 1000-yr-old tsunami in the Indian Ocean points to greater risk for East Africa: reply. Geology, 49(1), (2021): E516-E516, https://doi.org/10.1130/G48585Y.1., We appreciate Somerville’s (2020) interest in our work, and the opportunity to further expand the discussion about the occurrence of a trans-oceanic tsunami in the Indian Ocean generated by a megathrust earthquake ~1000 years ago. Somerville suggests a connection between the inferred tsunami deposit presented by us (Maselli et al., 2020) and a tsunami event reported to have occurred in Nagapattinam (India) in the year 900 CE and described in Kalaki Krishnamurty’s book (Rastogi and Jaiswal, 2006).

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Maselli, V., Oppo, D., Moore, A. L., Gusman, A. R., Mtelela, C., Iacopini, D., Taviani, M., Mjema, E., Mulaya, E., Che, M., Tomioka, A. L., Mshiu, E., & Ortiz, J. D. A 1000-yr-old tsunami in the Indian Ocean points to greater risk for East Africa. Geology, 48(8), (2020): 808-813, doi:10.1130/G47257.1., The December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami prompted an unprecedented research effort to find ancient precursors and quantify the recurrence time of such a deadly natural disaster. This effort, however, has focused primarily along the northern and eastern Indian Ocean coastlines, in proximal areas hardest hit by the tsunami. No studies have been made to quantify the recurrence of tsunamis along the coastlines of the western Indian Ocean, leading to an underestimation of the tsunami risk in East Africa. Here, we document a 1000-yr-old sand layer hosting archaeological remains of an ancient coastal Swahili settlement in Tanzania. The sedimentary facies, grain-size distribution, and faunal assemblages indicate a tsunami wave as the most likely cause for the deposition of this sand layer. The tsunami in Tanzania is coeval with analogous deposits discovered at eastern Indian Ocean coastal sites. Numerical simulations of tsunami wave propagation indicate a megathrust earthquake generated by a large rupture of the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone as the likely tsunami source. Our findings provide evidence that teletsunamis represent a serious threat to coastal societies along the western Indian Ocean, with implications for future tsunami hazard and risk assessments in East Africa., This work was funded by the National Geographic Society (grant N. CP-R008–17). Maselli acknowledges support from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund through the Ocean Frontier Institute. We are extremely grateful to the editor, two anonymous reviewers, J. Bourgeois, G. Eberli, A. Prendergast, and C. Gouramanis for all the suggestions provided, which greatly improved the quality of the manuscript. We would like to thank the United Republic of Tanzania and the University of Dar es Salaam for allowing us to perform the field work activity. This is ISMAR Bologna scientific contribution number 2024.

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Maselli, V., Oppo, D., Moore, A. L., Gusman, A. R., Mtelela, C., Iacopini, D., Taviani, M., Mjema, E., Mulaya, E., Che, M., Tomioka, A. L., Mshiu, E., & Ortiz, J. D. A 1000-yr-old tsunami in the Indian Ocean points to greater risk for East Africa. Geology, 48(8), (2020): 808-813, doi:10.1130/G47257.1., The December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami prompted an unprecedented research effort to find ancient precursors and quantify the recurrence time of such a deadly natural disaster. This effort, however, has focused primarily along the northern and eastern Indian Ocean coastlines, in proximal areas hardest hit by the tsunami. No studies have been made to quantify the recurrence of tsunamis along the coastlines of the western Indian Ocean, leading to an underestimation of the tsunami risk in East Africa. Here, we document a 1000-yr-old sand layer hosting archaeological remains of an ancient coastal Swahili settlement in Tanzania. The sedimentary facies, grain-size distribution, and faunal assemblages indicate a tsunami wave as the most likely cause for the deposition of this sand layer. The tsunami in Tanzania is coeval with analogous deposits discovered at eastern Indian Ocean coastal sites. Numerical simulations of tsunami wave propagation indicate a megathrust earthquake generated by a large rupture of the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone as the likely tsunami source. Our findings provide evidence that teletsunamis represent a serious threat to coastal societies along the western Indian Ocean, with implications for future tsunami hazard and risk assessments in East Africa., This work was funded by the National Geographic Society (grant N. CP-R008–17). Maselli acknowledges support from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund through the Ocean Frontier Institute. We are extremely grateful to the editor, two anonymous reviewers, J. Bourgeois, G. Eberli, A. Prendergast, and C. Gouramanis for all the suggestions provided, which greatly improved the quality of the manuscript. We would like to thank the United Republic of Tanzania and the University of Dar es Salaam for allowing us to perform the field work activity. This is ISMAR Bologna scientific contribution number 2024.

In the subduction zone off the west coast of central Sumatra, two great earthquakes, the 2007 great Bengkulu earthquake (Mw 8.4) and the 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake (Mw 7.8), occurred along the plate interface. Although the moment magnitude of the 2010 earthquake was much smaller than that of the 2007 earthquake, the tsunami heights resulting from the former 2010 earthquake were higher than those resulting from the latter 2007 earthquake, indicating that tsunami heights are difficult to forecast. An advanced method for determining appropriate source models that can explain the tsunami heights along coastal areas is needed for tsunami warning purposes. In this study, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and fault length and width were calculated from suitable scaling relations between those and the magnitude for the 2007 and 2010 earthquakes. Tsunami numerical simulations were conducted using various slip amounts or corresponding rigidities. The best slip amount or corresponding rigidity was selected by comparing the measured and computed tsunami heights. For the 2007 Bengkulu earthquake, the measured tsunami heights are well explained using a rigidity of 3.0 × 1010 Nm−2 (7.59-m slip amount). For the 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake, the measured tsunami heights are well explained using a rigidity of 1.5 × 1010 Nm−2 (8.17-m slip amount). From those results, we determined the depth-dependent rigidity relation for Central Sumatra to estimate appropriate source models in our tsunami height forecasting method.

In the subduction zone off the west coast of central Sumatra, two great earthquakes, the 2007 great Bengkulu earthquake (Mw 8.4) and the 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake (Mw 7.8), occurred along the plate interface. Although the moment magnitude of the 2010 earthquake was much smaller than that of the 2007 earthquake, the tsunami heights resulting from the former 2010 earthquake were higher than those resulting from the latter 2007 earthquake, indicating that tsunami heights are difficult to forecast. An advanced method for determining appropriate source models that can explain the tsunami heights along coastal areas is needed for tsunami warning purposes. In this study, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and fault length and width were calculated from suitable scaling relations between those and the magnitude for the 2007 and 2010 earthquakes. Tsunami numerical simulations were conducted using various slip amounts or corresponding rigidities. The best slip amount or corresponding rigidity was selected by comparing the measured and computed tsunami heights. For the 2007 Bengkulu earthquake, the measured tsunami heights are well explained using a rigidity of 3.0 × 1010 Nm−2 (7.59-m slip amount). For the 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake, the measured tsunami heights are well explained using a rigidity of 1.5 × 1010 Nm−2 (8.17-m slip amount). From those results, we determined the depth-dependent rigidity relation for Central Sumatra to estimate appropriate source models in our tsunami height forecasting method.

The 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake generated a large tsunami that caused catastrophic damage along the Pacific coast of Japan. The major portion of the damage along the Pacific coast of Tohoku in Japan was mainly caused by the first few cycles of tsunami waves. However, the largest phase of the tsunami arriving surprisingly late in Hakodate in Hokkaido, Japan; that is, approximately 9h after the origin time of the earthquake. It is important to understand the generation mechanism of this large later phase. The tsunami was numerically computed by solving both linear shallow water equations and non-linear shallow water equations with moving boundary conditions throughout the computational area. The later tsunami phases observed on southern Hokkaido can be much better explained by tsunami waveforms computed by solving the non-linear equations than by those computed by solving the linear equations. This suggests that the later tsunami waves arrived at the Hokkaido coast after propagating along the Pacific coast of the Tohoku region with repeated inundations far inland or reflecting from the coast of Tohoku after the inundation. The spectral analysis of the observed waveform at Hakodate tide gauge shows that the later tsunami that arrived between 7.5 and 9.5h after the earthquake mainly contains a period of 45-50min. The normal modes of Hakodate Bay were also computed to obtain the eigen periods, eigenfunctions, and spatial distribution of water heights. The computed tsunami height distributions near Hakodate and the fundamental mode of Hakodate Bay indicate that the large later phases are mainly caused by the resonance of the bay, which has a period of approximately 50min. The results also indicate that the tsunami wave heights near the Hakodate port area, the most populated area in Hakodate, are the largest in the bay because of the resonance of the fundamental mode of the bay. The results of this study suggest that large future tsunamis might excite the fundamental mode o

The 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake generated a large tsunami that caused catastrophic damage along the Pacific coast of Japan. The major portion of the damage along the Pacific coast of Tohoku in Japan was mainly caused by the first few cycles of tsunami waves. However, the largest phase of the tsunami arriving surprisingly late in Hakodate in Hokkaido, Japan; that is, approximately 9h after the origin time of the earthquake. It is important to understand the generation mechanism of this large later phase. The tsunami was numerically computed by solving both linear shallow water equations and non-linear shallow water equations with moving boundary conditions throughout the computational area. The later tsunami phases observed on southern Hokkaido can be much better explained by tsunami waveforms computed by solving the non-linear equations than by those computed by solving the linear equations. This suggests that the later tsunami waves arrived at the Hokkaido coast after propagating along the Pacific coast of the Tohoku region with repeated inundations far inland or reflecting from the coast of Tohoku after the inundation. The spectral analysis of the observed waveform at Hakodate tide gauge shows that the later tsunami that arrived between 7.5 and 9.5h after the earthquake mainly contains a period of 45-50min. The normal modes of Hakodate Bay were also computed to obtain the eigen periods, eigenfunctions, and spatial distribution of water heights. The computed tsunami height distributions near Hakodate and the fundamental mode of Hakodate Bay indicate that the large later phases are mainly caused by the resonance of the bay, which has a period of approximately 50min. The results also indicate that the tsunami wave heights near the Hakodate port area, the most populated area in Hakodate, are the largest in the bay because of the resonance of the fundamental mode of the bay. The results of this study suggest that large future tsunamis might excite the fundamental mode o

An approach for forecasting near-field tsunami inundation was developed by combining two methods. The first method computes tsunami by assimilating pressure data observed at numerous ocean bottom sensors without tsunami source information, and the second method forecasts near-field tsunami inundation by selecting a site-specific scenario from a precomputed tsunami inundation database. In order to evaluate the validity of this combined method, we performed a synthetic forecast test for the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami along the Pacific coast in Japan. A tsunami computation test performed using the assimilation of synthetic pressure data reveals that the method reproduced well the tsunami field for the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. A synthetic near-field tsunami inundation forecast at four sites, Kamaishi, Rikuzentakata, Minamisanriku, and the Sendai Plain for the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami also worked. The results indicate that an accurate tsunami inundation forecast method by this combined approach using pressure data from numerous ocean bottom sensors is now available.

An approach for forecasting near-field tsunami inundation was developed by combining two methods. The first method computes tsunami by assimilating pressure data observed at numerous ocean bottom sensors without tsunami source information, and the second method forecasts near-field tsunami inundation by selecting a site-specific scenario from a precomputed tsunami inundation database. In order to evaluate the validity of this combined method, we performed a synthetic forecast test for the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami along the Pacific coast in Japan. A tsunami computation test performed using the assimilation of synthetic pressure data reveals that the method reproduced well the tsunami field for the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. A synthetic near-field tsunami inundation forecast at four sites, Kamaishi, Rikuzentakata, Minamisanriku, and the Sendai Plain for the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami also worked. The results indicate that an accurate tsunami inundation forecast method by this combined approach using pressure data from numerous ocean bottom sensors is now available.

Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a depth dependent rigidity. The method was tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America. The tsunami numerical simulations were carried out from the determined fault models. We found that the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas were reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our method for tsunami early warning purpose should work to estimate a fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua due to large earthquakes in the subduction zone.

Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a depth dependent rigidity. The method was tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America. The tsunami numerical simulations were carried out from the determined fault models. We found that the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas were reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our method for tsunami early warning purpose should work to estimate a fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua due to large earthquakes in the subduction zone.

Centroid moment tensor solutions for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake are determined by W phase inversions using 5 and 10 min data recorded by the Full Range Seismograph Network of Japan (F-net). By a scaling relation of moment magnitude to rupture area and an assumption of rigidity of 4 x 10(10) N m(-2), simple rectangular earthquake fault models are estimated from the solutions. Tsunami inundations in the Sendai Plain, Minamisanriku, Rikuzentakata, and Taro are simulated using the estimated fault models. Then the simulated tsunami inundation area and heights are compared with the observations. Even the simulated tsunami heights and inundations from the W phase solution that used only 5 min data are considerably similar to the observations. The results are improved when using 10 min of W phase data. These show that the W phase solutions are reliable to be used for tsunami inundation modeling. Furthermore, the technique that combines W phase inversion and tsunami inundation modeling can produce results that have sufficient accuracy for tsunami early warning purposes.

Centroid moment tensor solutions for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake are determined by W phase inversions using 5 and 10 min data recorded by the Full Range Seismograph Network of Japan (F-net). By a scaling relation of moment magnitude to rupture area and an assumption of rigidity of 4 x 10(10) N m(-2), simple rectangular earthquake fault models are estimated from the solutions. Tsunami inundations in the Sendai Plain, Minamisanriku, Rikuzentakata, and Taro are simulated using the estimated fault models. Then the simulated tsunami inundation area and heights are compared with the observations. Even the simulated tsunami heights and inundations from the W phase solution that used only 5 min data are considerably similar to the observations. The results are improved when using 10 min of W phase data. These show that the W phase solutions are reliable to be used for tsunami inundation modeling. Furthermore, the technique that combines W phase inversion and tsunami inundation modeling can produce results that have sufficient accuracy for tsunami early warning purposes.

The slip distribution of the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake is inferred from tsunami waveforms, GPS data, and seafloor crustal deformation data. The major slip region extends all the way to the trench, and the large slip area extends 300 km long and 160 km wide. The largest slip of 44 m is located up-dip of the hypocenter. The large slip amount, about 41 m, ruptured the plate interface near the trench. The seismic moment calculated from the estimated slip distribution is 5.5 x 10^[22] N m (Mw 9.1). The large tsunami due to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake is generated from those large slip areas near the trench. The additional uplift at the sedimentary wedge as suggested for the 1896 Sanriku earthquake may have occurred during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, too.

The slip distribution of the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake is inferred from tsunami waveforms, GPS data, and seafloor crustal deformation data. The major slip region extends all the way to the trench, and the large slip area extends 300 km long and 160 km wide. The largest slip of 44 m is located up-dip of the hypocenter. The large slip amount, about 41 m, ruptured the plate interface near the trench. The seismic moment calculated from the estimated slip distribution is 5.5 x 10^[22] N m (Mw 9.1). The large tsunami due to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake is generated from those large slip areas near the trench. The additional uplift at the sedimentary wedge as suggested for the 1896 Sanriku earthquake may have occurred during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, too.