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Effective policies for adaptation to climate change require understanding how impacts are related to exposures and vulnerability, the dimensions of the climate system that will change most and where human impacts will be most draconian, and the institutions best suited to respond. Here, we propose a simple method for more credibly pairing empirical statistical damage estimates derived from recent weather and outcome observations with projected future climate changes and proposed responses. We first analyze agricultural production and loan repayment data from Brazil to understand vulnerability to historical variation in the more predictable components of temperature and rainfall (trend and seasonality) as well as to shocks (both local and over larger spatial scales). This decomposed weather variation over the past two decades explains over 50% of the yield variation in major Brazilian crops and, critically, can be constructed in the same way for future climate projections. Combining our estimates with bias-corrected downscaled climate simulations for Brazil, we find increased variation in yields and revenues (including more bad years and worse outcomes) and higher agricultural loan default at midcentury. Results in this context point to two particularly acute dimensions of vulnerability: Intensified seasonality and local idiosyncratic shocks both contribute to worsening outcomes, along with a reduced capacity for spatially correlated (covariate) shocks to ameliorate these effects through prices. These findings suggest that resilience strategies should focus on institutions such as water storage, financial services, and reinsurance.

We use a combination of economic and wellbeing metrics to evaluate the impacts of a climate resilience program designed for family farmers in the semiarid region of Brazil. Most family farmers in the region are on the verge of income and food insufficiency, both of which are exacerbated in prolonged periods of droughts. The program assisted farmers in their milk and sheepmeat production, implementing a set of climate-smart production practices and locally-adapted technologies. We find that the program under evaluation had substantive and significant impacts on production practices, land management, and quality of life in general, using several different quasi-experimental strategies to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated farmers. We highlight the strengths and limitations of each evaluation strategy and how the set of analyses and outcome indicators complement each other. The evaluation provides valuable insights into the economic and environmental sustainability of family farming in semiarid regions, which are under growing pressure from climate change and environmental degradation worldwide.

We use a combination of economic and wellbeing metrics to evaluate the impacts of a climate resilience program designed for family farmers in the semiarid region of Brazil. Most family farmers in the region are on the verge of income and food insufficiency, both of which are exacerbated in prolonged periods of droughts. The program assisted farmers in their milk and sheepmeat production, implementing a set of climate-smart production practices and locally-adapted technologies. We find that the program under evaluation had substantive and significant impacts on production practices, land management, and quality of life in general, using several different quasi-experimental strategies to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated farmers. We highlight the strengths and limitations of each evaluation strategy and how the set of analyses and outcome indicators complement each other. The evaluation provides valuable insights into the economic and environmental sustainability of family farming in semiarid regions, which are under growing pressure from climate change and environmental degradation worldwide.

Este artigo objetiva apresentar os resultados de uma pesquisa sobre a apropriação da renda agrícola total por famílias de perfis distintos (empregadoras, por conta própria, assalariadas), com pelo menos um membro ocupado em atividades agrícolas, no Brasil, nos anos 2000. Investigou-se a variação na participação de cada tipo familiar no total da renda agrícola, e analisou-se a decomposição dos efeitos responsáveis por essa variação. Os resultados apontam a evidente mudança de perfil das famílias agrícolas brasileiras e a transição para o assalariamento. Mostram também que, no interior da agricultura familiar, os grupos familiares de não proprietários são os que obtiveram o pior desempenho na distribuição e variação da apropriação relativa da renda agrícola global.

Este artigo objetiva apresentar os resultados de uma pesquisa sobre a apropriação da renda agrícola total por famílias de perfis distintos (empregadoras, por conta própria, assalariadas), com pelo menos um membro ocupado em atividades agrícolas, no Brasil, nos anos 2000. Investigou-se a variação na participação de cada tipo familiar no total da renda agrícola, e analisou-se a decomposição dos efeitos responsáveis por essa variação. Os resultados apontam a evidente mudança de perfil das famílias agrícolas brasileiras e a transição para o assalariamento. Mostram também que, no interior da agricultura familiar, os grupos familiares de não proprietários são os que obtiveram o pior desempenho na distribuição e variação da apropriação relativa da renda agrícola global.

In recent years, Brazil has seen an increase in formal employment, the raising of the minimum wage, a recovery in the purchasing power of the average wage, a drop in open unemployment and curbs on unprotected subcontracting. Average household incomes have risen and poverty has declined. How was this achieved? This paper argues that a minimum wage revaluation policy, broader social security coverage, income transfers and improved wage bargaining have all contributed to a reduction in inequality. The shift in labour market indicators is, they believe, conditioned by Brazil’s economic dynamics, public policy on the raising of incomes, and a legal and institutional framework in which the public institutions and the trade unions play a prominent role. The authors advocate the creation of a development model that distributes income and dignifies citizens.

In recent years, Brazil has seen an increase in formal employment, the raising of the minimum wage, a recovery in the purchasing power of the average wage, a drop in open unemployment and curbs on unprotected subcontracting. Average household incomes have risen and poverty has declined. How was this achieved? This paper argues that a minimum wage revaluation policy, broader social security coverage, income transfers and improved wage bargaining have all contributed to a reduction in inequality. The shift in labour market indicators is, they believe, conditioned by Brazil’s economic dynamics, public policy on the raising of incomes, and a legal and institutional framework in which the public institutions and the trade unions play a prominent role. The authors advocate the creation of a development model that distributes income and dignifies citizens.

In recent years, Brazil has seen an increase in formal employment, the raising of the minimum wage, a recovery in the purchasing power of the average wage, a drop in open unemployment and curbs on unprotected subcontracting. Average household incomes have risen and poverty has declined. How was this achieved? This paper argues that a minimum wage revaluation policy, broader social security coverage, income transfers and improved wage bargaining have all contributed to a reduction in inequality. The shift in labour market indicators is, they believe, conditioned by Brazil’s economic dynamics, public policy on the raising of incomes, and a legal and institutional framework in which the public institutions and the trade unions play a prominent role. The authors advocate the creation of a development model that distributes income and dignifies citizens.