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This paper describes a neural network cloud masking scheme from PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Science coupled with Observations from a Lidar) multi-angle polarimetric measurements. The algorithm has been trained on synthetic measurements and has been applied to the processing of 1 year of PARASOL data. Comparisons of the retrieved cloud fraction with MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products show overall agreement in spatial and temporal patterns, but the PARASOL neural network (PARASOL-NN) retrieves lower cloud fractions. Comparisons with a goodness-of-fit mask from aerosol retrievals suggest that the NN cloud mask flags fewer clear pixels as cloudy than MODIS (∼ 3 % of the clear pixels versus ∼ 15 % by MODIS). On the other hand the NN classifies more pixels incorrectly as clear than MODIS (∼ 20 % by NN, versus ∼ 15 % by MODIS). Additionally, the NN and MODIS cloud mask have been applied to the aerosol retrievals from PARASOL using the Remote Sensing of Trace Gas and Aerosol Products (RemoTAP) algorithm. Validation with AERONET shows that the NN cloud mask performs comparably with MODIS in screening residual cloud contamination in retrieved aerosol properties. Our study demonstrates that cloud masking from multi-angle polarimeter (MAP) aerosol retrievals can be performed based on the MAP measurements themselves, making the retrievals independent of the availability of a cloud imager., Mathematical Physics

In this study, we investigate a strategy to accelerate the data assimilation (DA) algorithm. Based on evaluations of the computational time, the analysis step of the assimilation turns out to be the most expensive part. After a study of the characteristics of the ensemble ash state, we propose a mask-state algorithm which records the sparsity information of the full ensemble state matrix and transforms the full matrix into a relatively small one. This will reduce the computational cost in the analysis step. Experimental results show the mask-state algorithm significantly speeds up the analysis step. Subsequently, the total amount of computing time for volcanic ash DA is reduced to an acceptable level. The mask-state algorithm is generic and thus can be embedded in any ensemble-based DA framework. Moreover, ensemble-based DA with the mask-state algorithm is promising and flexible, because it implements exactly the standard DA without any approximation and it realizes the satisfying performance without any change in the full model., Mathematical Physics

The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption had serious consequences to civil aviation. This has initiated a lot of research on volcanic ash forecasting in recent years. For forecasting the volcanic ash transport after eruption onset, a volcanic ash transport and diffusion model (VATDM) needs to be run with Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs) such as plume height and mass eruption rate as input, and with data assimilation techniques to continuously improve the forecast. Reliable and accurate ash measurements are crucial for providing successful ash clouds advices. In the first phase of this research work, simulated aircraft-based volcanic ash measurements, will be assimilated into a transport model to identify the potential benefit of this kind of observations in an assimilation system. The results show that assimilating aircraft-based measurements can improve the state of ash clouds, and can provide an improved forecast. We also show that for an advice on the aeroplane flying level, aircraft-based measurements should preferably be taken at this level. Furthermore it is shown that in order to make an acceptable advice for aviation decision makers, accurate knowledge about uncertainties of ESPs and measurements is of great importance. The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruptions. However, because the distal part of a volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distal areas. In this thesis, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations, measured in the North-West part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system to investigate the potential improvement on the forecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show that the error of the analyzed volcanic as, Mathematical Physics

Using data assimilation (DA) to improve model forecast accuracy is a powerful approach that requires available observations. Infrared satellite measurements of volcanic ash mass loadings are often used as input observations for the assimilation scheme. However, because these primary satellite-retrieved data are often two-dimensional (2-D) and the ash plume is usually vertically located in a narrow band, directly assimilating the 2-D ash mass loadings in a three-dimensional (3-D) volcanic ash model (with an integral observational operator) can usually introduce large artificial/spurious vertical correlations. In this study, we look at an approach to avoid the artificial vertical correlations by not involving the integral operator. By integrating available data of ash mass loadings and cloud top heights, as well as data-based assumptions on thickness, we propose a satellite observational operator (SOO) that translates satellite-retrieved 2-D volcanic ash mass loadings to 3-D concentrations. The 3-D SOO makes the analysis step of assimilation comparable in the 3-D model space. Ensemble-based DA is used to assimilate the extracted measurements of ash concentrations. The results show that satellite DA with SOO can improve the estimate of volcanic ash state and the forecast. Comparison with both satellite-retrieved data and aircraft in situ measurements shows that the effective duration of the improved volcanic ash forecasts for the distal part of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano is about 6 h., Mathematical Physics

Remote sensing, as a powerful tool for monitoring atmospheric phenomena, has been playing an increasingly important role in inverse modeling. Remote sensing instruments measure quantities that often combine several state variables as one. This creates very strong correlations between the state variables that share the same observation variable. This may cause numerical problems resulting in a low convergence rate or inaccurate estimates in gradient-based variational assimilation if improper error statistics are used. In this paper, two criteria or scoring rules are proposed to quantify the numerical robustness of assimilating a specific set of remote sensing observations and to quantify the reliability of the estimates of the parameters. The criteria are derived by analyzing how the correlations are created via shared observation data and how they may influence the process of variational data assimilation. Experimental tests are conducted and show a good level of agreement with theory. The results illustrate the capability of the criteria to indicate the reliability of the assimilation process. Both criteria can be used with observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) and in combination with other verification scores., Mathematical Physics

The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption had serious consequences to civil aviation. This has initiated a lot of research on volcanic ash forecasting in recent years. For forecasting the volcanic ash transport after eruption onset, a volcanic ash transport and diffusion model (VATDM) needs to be run with Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs) such as plume height and mass eruption rate as input, and with data assimilation techniques to continuously improve the forecast. Reliable and accurate ash measurements are crucial for providing successful ash clouds advices. In the first phase of this research work, simulated aircraft-based volcanic ash measurements, will be assimilated into a transport model to identify the potential benefit of this kind of observations in an assimilation system. The results show that assimilating aircraft-based measurements can improve the state of ash clouds, and can provide an improved forecast. We also show that for an advice on the aeroplane flying level, aircraft-based measurements should preferably be taken at this level. Furthermore it is shown that in order to make an acceptable advice for aviation decision makers, accurate knowledge about uncertainties of ESPs and measurements is of great importance. The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruptions. However, because the distal part of a volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distal areas. In this thesis, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations, measured in the North-West part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system to investigate the potential improvement on the forecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show that the error of the analyzed volcanic as, Mathematical Physics

Remote sensing, as a powerful tool for monitoring atmospheric phenomena, has been playing an increasingly important role in inverse modeling. Remote sensing instruments measure quantities that often combine several state variables as one. This creates very strong correlations between the state variables that share the same observation variable. This may cause numerical problems resulting in a low convergence rate or inaccurate estimates in gradient-based variational assimilation if improper error statistics are used. In this paper, two criteria or scoring rules are proposed to quantify the numerical robustness of assimilating a specific set of remote sensing observations and to quantify the reliability of the estimates of the parameters. The criteria are derived by analyzing how the correlations are created via shared observation data and how they may influence the process of variational data assimilation. Experimental tests are conducted and show a good level of agreement with theory. The results illustrate the capability of the criteria to indicate the reliability of the assimilation process. Both criteria can be used with observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) and in combination with other verification scores., Mathematical Physics

Using data assimilation (DA) to improve model forecast accuracy is a powerful approach that requires available observations. Infrared satellite measurements of volcanic ash mass loadings are often used as input observations for the assimilation scheme. However, because these primary satellite-retrieved data are often two-dimensional (2-D) and the ash plume is usually vertically located in a narrow band, directly assimilating the 2-D ash mass loadings in a three-dimensional (3-D) volcanic ash model (with an integral observational operator) can usually introduce large artificial/spurious vertical correlations. In this study, we look at an approach to avoid the artificial vertical correlations by not involving the integral operator. By integrating available data of ash mass loadings and cloud top heights, as well as data-based assumptions on thickness, we propose a satellite observational operator (SOO) that translates satellite-retrieved 2-D volcanic ash mass loadings to 3-D concentrations. The 3-D SOO makes the analysis step of assimilation comparable in the 3-D model space. Ensemble-based DA is used to assimilate the extracted measurements of ash concentrations. The results show that satellite DA with SOO can improve the estimate of volcanic ash state and the forecast. Comparison with both satellite-retrieved data and aircraft in situ measurements shows that the effective duration of the improved volcanic ash forecasts for the distal part of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano is about 6 h., Mathematical Physics

In this study, we investigate a strategy to accelerate the data assimilation (DA) algorithm. Based on evaluations of the computational time, the analysis step of the assimilation turns out to be the most expensive part. After a study of the characteristics of the ensemble ash state, we propose a mask-state algorithm which records the sparsity information of the full ensemble state matrix and transforms the full matrix into a relatively small one. This will reduce the computational cost in the analysis step. Experimental results show the mask-state algorithm significantly speeds up the analysis step. Subsequently, the total amount of computing time for volcanic ash DA is reduced to an acceptable level. The mask-state algorithm is generic and thus can be embedded in any ensemble-based DA framework. Moreover, ensemble-based DA with the mask-state algorithm is promising and flexible, because it implements exactly the standard DA without any approximation and it realizes the satisfying performance without any change in the full model., Mathematical Physics

In this paper, we reconstruct the vertical profile of volcanic ash emissions by assimilating satellite data and ground-based observations using a modified trajectory-based 4D-Var (Trj4DVar) approach. In our previous work, we found that the lack of vertical resolution in satellite ash column data can result in a poor estimation of the injection layer where the ash is emitted into the atmosphere. The injection layer is crucial for the forecast of volcanic ash clouds. To improve estimation, Trj4DVar was implemented, and it has shown increased performance in twin experiments using synthetic observations. However, there are some cases with real satellite data where Trj4DVar has difficulty in obtaining an accurate estimation of the injection layer. To remedy this, we propose a modification of Trj4DVar, test it with synthetic twin experiments, and evaluate real data performance. The results show that the modified Trj4DVar is able to accurately estimate the injection height (location of the maximal emission rate) by incorporating the plume height (top of the ash plume) and mass eruption rate data obtained from ground-based observations near the source into the assimilation system. This will produce more accurate emission estimations and more reliable forecasts of volcanic ash clouds. Also provided are two strategies on the preprocessing and proper use of satellite data., Mathematical Physics

The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However, because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distal areas. In our approach, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations, measured in the northwestern part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system combined with a volcanic ash transport model to investigate the potential improvement on the forecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show that the error of the analyzed volcanic ash state can be significantly reduced through assimilating real-life in situ measurements. After a continuous assimilation, it is shown that the aviation advice for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg can be significantly improved. We suggest that with suitable aircrafts measuring once per day across the distal volcanic ash plume, the description and prediction of volcanic ash clouds in these areas can be greatly improved., Mathematical Physics

In this paper, we reconstruct the vertical profile of volcanic ash emissions by assimilating satellite data and ground-based observations using a modified trajectory-based 4D-Var (Trj4DVar) approach. In our previous work, we found that the lack of vertical resolution in satellite ash column data can result in a poor estimation of the injection layer where the ash is emitted into the atmosphere. The injection layer is crucial for the forecast of volcanic ash clouds. To improve estimation, Trj4DVar was implemented, and it has shown increased performance in twin experiments using synthetic observations. However, there are some cases with real satellite data where Trj4DVar has difficulty in obtaining an accurate estimation of the injection layer. To remedy this, we propose a modification of Trj4DVar, test it with synthetic twin experiments, and evaluate real data performance. The results show that the modified Trj4DVar is able to accurately estimate the injection height (location of the maximal emission rate) by incorporating the plume height (top of the ash plume) and mass eruption rate data obtained from ground-based observations near the source into the assimilation system. This will produce more accurate emission estimations and more reliable forecasts of volcanic ash clouds. Also provided are two strategies on the preprocessing and proper use of satellite data., Mathematical Physics

The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However, because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distal areas. In our approach, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations, measured in the northwestern part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system combined with a volcanic ash transport model to investigate the potential improvement on the forecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show that the error of the analyzed volcanic ash state can be significantly reduced through assimilating real-life in situ measurements. After a continuous assimilation, it is shown that the aviation advice for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg can be significantly improved. We suggest that with suitable aircrafts measuring once per day across the distal volcanic ash plume, the description and prediction of volcanic ash clouds in these areas can be greatly improved., Mathematical Physics