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6,157 results on '"ECONOMIC POLICY"'

1. A humanist perspective on economic policy : Ecuador's economic reforms and industrial policy, 2007-2017

Author

Estevez, Laura and Chang, Ha-Joon

Subjects
economic development, economic policy, economic transformation, Ecuador, industrial policy, Latin America, structural change
Abstract

This dissertation assesses Ecuador's economic policies during the Correa administration (2007 - 2017) from the perspective of human development. It aims to accomplish two objectives -one conceptual and one empirical. At the conceptual level, it brings together two intellectual traditions that are often seen as antagonistic: on the one hand, classical development theory with its focus on structural transformation as the central concern of development and, on the other hand, the humanist development tradition, which asserts the centrality of human wellbeing as the ultimate objective of policy interventions. Combining the normative gaze of the human development approach with classical development theory's insights about the centrality of industrial policy as tool for achieving sustained per capita growth, I build a framework for evaluating economic policies in general, and Ecuador's economic policies in particular, in terms of their direct and indirect contributions to human wellbeing. At the empirical level (Part II), I apply the framework developed in Part I to analyze Ecuador's economic policies during the Correa administration. Though my analysis identifies manifold successes and failures, it concludes that -with some notable exceptions- the administration's economic policies were largely conducive to enhancing economic and human development. Moreover, many of the policies that most effectively contributed to the expansion of human development -particularly public investment, macroeconomic and regulatory policies- were those that most markedly broke with the policy regime of Ecuador's Washington Consensus period (1982-2006). However, in the realm of industrial policy, the government notably fell short of the speed, scale and precision required to achieve a significant change in its commodity-dependent pattern of productive specialization. This prevented the country from achieving a level of diversification that could have provided a buffer against the boom and bust cycles of commodities markets and stimulated long-term development of higher-value added productive capabilities. As a result, when the price of oil suddenly fell, the government was unable to sustain the public investments that enabled its upward development trajectory. Thus, the ineffectiveness of the Correa administration's industrial policy truncated a successful process of expansion of human development that could have become sustainable had the imaginations of policy makers been able to escape the ideational constraints of orthodox economic prescriptions and standard human development discourse, which either directly undermine or neglect industrial policy. Ecuador's experience highlights the risks of seeing development policy as little more than a collection of measures for 'getting along with a little assistance' and underscores the need for developing countries to take more proactive structural measures to achieve sustained improvements in economic and human development.

Published
2022
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2. Sovereign debt and economic policy : a relational sociology of debt in the United Kingdom, 1960s-1980s

Author

Labarca, José Tomás, Hearn, Jonathan, and Van Gunten, Tod

Subjects
sovereign debt, economic policy, relational sociology of debt, public finance statistics, budgetary reporting-, macroeconomic indicators, 1960s-1980s
Abstract

This thesis studies how what I call relational fiscal practices shape government elites' (and non-government actors') understandings of economic policy options. It examines how symbolic fiscal practices, classification struggles, and interwoven relations contour policymakers' communication of these options to relevant stakeholders-Parliament, voters, financial investors, international organisations, etc.-and structure political debates over the size of the state and the allocation of resources to different purposes. Building on the relational frameworks proposed by economic and political sociologists (Block, 2012; Bourdieu, 2010; Tilly, 2005; Zelizer, 2005, 2012), I develop a relational approach to sovereign debt. With this aim, I define relational as comprising (1) inter-organisational relations, (2) intra-organisational relations, and (3) semantic relations-relations between concepts and categories at the core of symbolic fiscal practices. My central argument is that to grasp the political, economic, and sociological significance of public borrowing we must study how historical agents within and outside government distinguish borrowing according to who the creditor is and what the government borrows for. This entails looking beneath the overall quantity of debt and/or the problem of debt repayment per se, which have traditionally been at the centre of social science research on sovereign debt. Drawing on original archival evidence, parts II and III develop the empirical argument. Part II studies the role of numbers and budgetary reporting in framing economic policy through an analysis of how symbolic fiscal practices-the accounting and conceptual decisions, technologies, and devices that compose budgetary reporting-are crucial sites from which sovereign debt and deficits acquire their historical and sociological meaning. By studying the social processes behind the production, uses, and understandings of public finance statistics, chapters 3-5 inquire why certain macroeconomic indicators become more salient and consequential for policy than others. They theorise symbolic fiscal practices and public knowledge infrastructures as key devices for structuring the relationship between economic policy and the climate of general and expert opinion. As non-neutral classification systems that result from classification struggles over what and how to report, symbolic fiscal practices influenced how people thought of the economy, government, and economic policy in the 1960s-1980s. The politics of official knowledge conditioned the terms and standards of economic policy debate. The three chapters analyse the interaction between (i) efforts at managing public opinion; (ii) attempts at managing financial market expectations; (iii) attempts at managing international creditors' assessments; (iv) intra-state bureaucratic conflicts; (v) the mobilisation of epistemic authority; (vi) the legacies of past classification struggles; and (vii) conflicts between evolving fiscal schemata. Part III zooms in to specific fateful relational processes between government and key counterparties in the 1970s. It traces how (i) strategic interactions between relevant actors and (ii) specific policy and cognitive devices combined to constrain government elites' perceived menu of available policy options. Chapter 6 studies the strategic interactions between policymakers intending to legitimise an active fiscal policy and uncooperative financial markets in the 1970s. It argues that the institutional and cognitive underpinnings of the relational setting of sovereign debt shaped government elites' (and financial investors') understandings of economic policy options, and proposes the notion of an economic policy trilemma to explain and theorise the way in which financial confidence became a binding constraint to government policy. Chapter 7 offers a novel interpretation of mid-1970s economic policy as cumulative polyvalent performances. It situates the 1976 IMF crisis within a larger relational process and presents the story of how relational pondering, polyvalent performances, and opposite matching games influenced the negotiations between the government and relevant counterparties during 1975 and 1976. Overall, the thesis joins recent work in economic sociology by proposing a relational approach to public finances in general and public debt in particular. Beyond that theoretical contribution, the vast amount of original archival work conducted allows the empirical chapters to engage actively in scholarly debates relevant to the specific processes, topics, and periods considered.

Published
2022
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3. Essays on information, asset bubbles, and economic policy

Author

de Mauro, Andrea and Zanetti, Francesco

Subjects
Economic policy, Behavioural Finance, Macro-Finance, Financial Economics, Information Economics, Macroeconomics
Abstract

This work consists of three self-contained essays tackling independent research questions pertaining to information constraints, asset price bubbles, economic policy, or a combination thereof. The first chapter tackles the problem of growing income inequality by weighing the effectiveness of an array of fiscal policies currently available to policy-makers. To do so, I evaluate the impact of alternative forms of public expenditure in an overlapping generations framework where households' ability to invest in the education of their offspring is constrained by various sources of heterogeneity. I find that the optimal use of public funds consists in a combination of public grants aimed at improving educational quality and an increase in the upper limit of student loans. The subsequent panel data analysis corroborates my results and suggests that parental income remains the largest determinant of earnings and inequality. In Chapter 2, I turn my attention to the challenges posed by imperfect information about the source of asset price movements. I develop a New Keynesian model where stock prices contain a fundamental and a bubble component, both unobservable to agents and the central bank, who are forced to speculate about their value. I use this model to analyse the implications for investors' behaviour and monetary policy. I find that, under perfect information, a systematic increase in interest rates in response to growing bubbles exacerbates market volatility and welfare losses. For high levels of noise, the central bank should reverse its policy stance. However, due to the continuous underestimation of the size of bubbles, policy responses are perpetually inadequate. Finally, Chapter 3 explores the extent to which cognitive biases can explain market anomalies such as the formation of large financial bubbles. To this end, I develop a stochastic bubbles framework with imperfect information about the probability of a future market crash, where investors are overconfident about the accuracy of their knowledge. I put forward a number of generalisable propositions about the relationship between overconfidence and bubbles in general equilibrium frameworks. In particular, I find that overconfidence can play a key role in the existence of bubbles and is able to rationalise excessive market movements. I quantify my results and test the validity of the framework in a numerical analysis.

Published
2022

4. Beyond Empire : the transformation of U.S. trade and commercial policy toward Latin America during the administrations of William McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt

Author

Davidson, Elizabeth, Cullinane, Michael Patrick, and Sharples, Caroline

Subjects
Hegemony, Empire, economic policy, Partnership, foreign policy, Latin America, United States, William McKinley, Theodore Roosevelt, Elihu Root, Pan-American Conference
Abstract

This thesis examines the economic relationship between the United States and Latin America during the presidencies of William McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt. It argues that U.S. trade and commercial policy sought to create a closer and more equal partnership with Latin American nations and throughout the Western Hemisphere. This thesis provides an original contribution to knowledge as it moves away from existing histories where the dominant consensus is that of imperialism and the desire to expand the American empire. Instead, it explores the potential for partnership and relations based on common interests. Latin America is a particularly significant region to consider as the relationship between the United States and Latin America was not always cordial and in some cases could be described as tempestuous. McKinley and Roosevelt advocated military intervention when U.S. interests were threatened, a foreign policy that enhanced U.S. power in the Western Hemisphere but alienated the U.S. from sister republics. As a consequence, the State Department sought to realign relations and build rapport with the people of Latin America. This thesis considers three key diplomatic conferences on inter-American trade, commerce, and infrastructure from the perspective of the United States in order to indicate the intentions of U.S. foreign policy in the region. The use of these conferences as a tool for determining intentions presents a unique aspect of study in the history of U.S.-Latin American relations. The content of these conferences allows for a further deliberation of methods of communication, tariffs, debts, and reciprocity, and how these were used as diplomatic tools in U.S. foreign policy. Investigating economic policy also facilitates new perspectives on American material interests and the idea of empire. This thesis explains how the United States could remain economically dominant in the Western Hemisphere and share political power.

Published
2021

5. Conservative and Labour research departments, economic thought, and party policy, 1970-79

Author

Lievonen, Mikko and Jackson, Benjamin

Subjects
338.941, Public policy, Modern Britain and Europe, Political parties, History, Ideology, Economic policy, History of Britain and Europe
Abstract

This thesis considers the influence of professional policy experts on the ideologies of the Conservative and Labour parties in 1970-9. By focusing on the Conservative Research Department and the Labour Party Research Department, the thesis seeks to connect intellectual and political practice during a decade often seen as a turning point in post-war British historiography. To do so, the thesis examines three policy areas that defined the high politics of the decade: economic governance, industrial relations, and European integration. By tracing the research departments' adoption or rejection of policies, the thesis constructs a systematic account of the departments’ ideological leanings, intellectual impact, and positions in the parties’ ideological traditions. The thesis argues that economic thought was a primary battleground, laying the basis for the parties’ approaches to other questions. In this sphere, the Conservative Research Department contributed to the party’s shift towards neo-liberalism, while the Labour Party Research Department promoted a programme of leftist state interventionism. In industrial relations, the Conservative policy unit advocated cooperative relations with trade unions, while Labour’s policy experts found their radical aspirations obstructed by party and trade union leaders. In respect of Britain’s membership in the European Economic Community, the Conservative policy unit’s enthusiastic pro-Community views stood in contrast to the Labour experts’ trenchant Euroscepticism. The thesis argues that both research departments were able to exploit their privileged organisational positions to act as intermediaries between intellectual and political practice. During the ideologically fluid 1970s, the parties’ policy experts were, for the most part, effective in promoting ideas that aligned with their intellectual preferences. The result was a radicalisation of politics, where Conservative and Labour ideas were set on diametrically opposed trajectories. The research departments contributed to this divergence, and therefore, to the transition from post-war social democracy to Thatcherite neo-liberalism.

Published
2020

6. An international history of unemployment through the League of Nations and the International Labour Organization, 1931-1937

Author

Timpson, Mark and Clavin, Patricia M.

Subjects
331.13, Unemployment, Great Depression, League of Nations, International Labour Organization, nutrition, housing, economic policy, migration, 1930s
Abstract

Late in 1931, the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimated that worldwide unemployment had reached 20-25 million. The ILO was also mindful that the consequences of unemployment were borne by dependents and concluded that the number of people directly affected by unemployment was therefore probably in the region of 50-60 million. The thesis revisits this old theme of the 'Hungry Thirties' but considers it in a new and different way. Most histories of unemployment during the Great Depression have been presented in national terms but this study examines unemployment from an international perspective by utilizing the League of Nations and ILO as sites through which to explore how debates about unemployment and how to respond to it were being internationalized. Utilizing the vast archives of the League of Nations and ILO, the thesis focuses on a series of interconnected themes - public works and economic policy, migration, housing, and nutrition - themes that the League and ILO identified as being the 'fallout' from unemployment. It builds on recent research of the League and ILO that has revealed more complex histories of these two international organizations and that has recognized that the 'technical' agencies were core functions that consumed significant resources of personnel and money. Crucially, this work not only continued during the 1930s but thrived even as the political atmosphere darkened; it is, therefore, a history that offers another side to the autarky and nationalism of the 1930s. The thesis also connects the technical agencies of the League of Nations to the ILO and, in contrast to the customary treatment of the interaction of these two organizations that emphasizes inter-agency tension, it identifies how the collaboration was an important step in the rediscovery of the fundamental connection between economy and society by linking economic policy to social and physical welfare.

Published
2017

7. The role of Brazil in the International Monetary System, 1994-2014

Author

Peruffo, Luiza and Thompson, Helen

Subjects
332, Brazil, International Monetary System, Economic policy
Abstract

This dissertation is born out of the premise that the 2008 global financial crisis marked a watershed in the history of the international monetary system (IMS), where emerging market and developing countries (EMDs) would become permanently influential actors. In particular, it looks at the experience of Brazil in this context to evaluate this premise. Drawing on in-depth semi-structured interviews with current and former Brazilian policy-makers, this dissertation aims to explain the impact of external constraints on Brazilian economic policymaking from 1994 to 2014 and their role in determining Brazil's position in the IMS. The puzzle is that Brazil has remained an unprivileged player in the power structures of the IMS while its economic power and position with regard to debt and trade varied over the period of analysis. For Brazil there was a particular hope that the aftermath of the 2008 crisis had fundamentally changed Brazil's position in the IMS given the ease with which Brazil traversed the crisis. However, subsequent events have proven this view to be inaccurate, and that while the crisis generated circumstances in which Brazil appeared to have greater influence in the IMS, it did not precipitate any decisive structural change. Whilst Brazil did not change, it was nonetheless able to retain some of the political influence it acquired during the context of the crisis even when its domestic economic performance began to deteriorate substantially and some of the old external constraints re-emerged. The experience of Brazil thus serves to shed light on the understudied role of EMDs in the IMS and helps to better understand which factors can influence a country's monetary power in a hierarchical system.

Published
2016
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8. Economic policy, childcare and the unpaid economy : exploring gender equality in Scotland

Author

Azong, Jecynta A., Rutherford, Alasdair, Rummery, Kirstein, and Wilinska, Monika

Subjects
339.2, Gender equality, labour market participation, Unpaid economy, Unpaid care work, Childcare, Scotland, Economic policy, Gender mainstreaming, feminist economics, Actors, Ideas, Equality, Institutions, Feminist movements, Government budgets, Feminist historical institutionalism, Elite interviewing, Gender, Welfare states, Social policy, Scottish parliament, Scottish Government, Feminist research, Work and family, Households--Economic aspects, Sex role--Economic aspects, Equality--Scotland, Unpaid labor, Child care
Abstract

The research undertaken represents an in-depth study of gender and economics from a multi-disciplinary perspective. By drawing on economic, social policy and political science literature it makes an original contribution to the disciplines of economics and feminist economics by advancing ideas on a feminist theory of policy change and institutional design. Equally, the study develops a framework for a multi-method approach to feminist research with applied policy focus by establishing a pragmatic feminist research paradigm. By espousing multiple research philosophies, it extends understanding of gender differences in policy outcomes by connecting theories from feminist economics, feminist historical institutionalism and ideational processes. Jointly funded by the Economic and Social Research Council UK and the Scottish Government, this project attempts to answer three key questions: What is the relative position of men and women in the Scottish economy and how do childcare responsibilities influence these? Which institutions, structures and processes have been instrumental in embedding gender in Scottish economic policy? To what extent and how is the Scottish Government’s approach to economic policy gendered? Quantitative analysis reveals persistently disproportionate differences in men and women’s position in the labour market. Women remain over-represented in part-time employment and in the public sector in the 10years under investigation. Using panel data, the multinomial logistic regression estimation of patterns in labour market transitions equally reveal disproportionate gendered patterns, with families with dependent children 0-4years at a disadvantage to those without. Qualitative analysis indicates that these differences are partly explained by the fact that the unpaid economy still remains invisible to policymakers despite changes in the institutional design, policy processes and the approach to equality policymaking undertaken in Scotland. Unpaid childcare work is not represented as policy relevant and the way gender, equality and gender equality are conceptualised within institutional sites and on political agendas pose various challenges for policy development on unpaid childcare work and gender equality in general. Additionally, policymakers in Scotland do not integrate both the paid and unpaid economies in economic policy formulation since social policy and economic policy are designed separately. The study also establishes that the range of institutions and actors that make-up the institutional setting for regulating and promoting equality, influence how equality issues are treated within a national context. In Scotland, equality regulating institutions such as parliament, the Scottish Government, equality commission and the law are instrumental variables in determining the range of equality issues that are embedded in an equality infrastructure and the extent to which equality issues, including gender, are consequently embedded in public policy and government budgets. Significantly despite meeting all the attributes of an equality issue, unpaid care is not classified as a protected characteristic in the Equality legislation. These institutions can ameliorate, sustain or perpetuate the delivery of unequitable policy outcomes for men and women in the mutually dependent paid and unpaid economy. Thus, economic, social and political institutions are not independent from one another but are interrelated in complex ways that subsequently have material consequences on men and women in society. In summary, there are interlinkages between the law, labour market, the unpaid economy, the welfare state and gendered political institutions such that policy or institutional change in one will be dependent on or trigger change in another. These institutions are gendered, but are also interlinked and underpin the gender structure of other institutions to the extent that the gendered norms and ideas embedded in one institution, for example legislation or political institutions, structure the gendered dimensions of the labour market, welfare state, and the unpaid economy. By shedding light on institutional and political forces that regulate equality in addition to macroeconomic forces, the analysis reveals the important role of institutions, policy actors and their ideas as instrumental forces which constantly define, redefine and reconstruct the labour market experiences of men and women with significant material consequences.

Published
2015

9. Optimal policy and inconsistent preferences : behavioural policymaking and self-control

Author

Chesterley, Nicholas, Roberts, Kevin, and Abeler, Johannes

Subjects
338.9, Economics, Microeconomics, Behavioural Economics, Decision Theory, Economic Policy, Savings and Consumption, Intertemporal Choice, Preferences, Habits, Policy Design, Self-Control, Consumption, Willpower
Abstract

This thesis takes three different perspectives, using theoretical and experimental techniques, on time-inconsistent preferences and how the existence of multiple selves can affect both consumer behaviour and policy design. Across domains such as retirement saving, health, and educational achievement, intertemporal choice presents a challenge for both individuals and policymakers. The first paper, 'Choosing When to Nudge: Designing Behavioural Policy around Decision-Making Costs,' considers how behavioural policy, which has proven increasingly popular with policymakers, affects welfare. I find that for present-biased consumers, behavioural policies help some consumers but can inefficiently discourage others from optimizing. Such policies therefore have an ambiguous effect on welfare, and similar to traditional policies, can impose equity-efficiency tradeoffs. Monopolies may increase welfare given their incentive to simplify consumer decisions instead of exploit switching costs. The second paper, 'Virtue and Vice with Endogenous Preferences,' considers behaviour when preferences are affected by consumer decisions. I introduce agents whose temptation to consume in the present is affected by how much they choose to save for the future. I find that differences between agents can trap them in divergent paths of self-improvement -- saving more, they value the future more, making saving optimal -- or binging -- consuming more makes them indifferent to future costs, making consumption optimal. At the extreme, it is frequently an optimum for a consumer to consume their entire wealth. The final paper, 'Bet You Can't Eat Just One: Consumption Complementarity and 'Self'-Control' considers an intrapersonal game between a moderate cold self and a hot self that wants to indulge. In equilibrium, sophisticated selves best respond to each other's behaviour: the cold self over-abstains and the hot self over-indulges to avoid inducing the other state. I test these ideas in the lab, and find that subjects on a diet who were induced to consume a piece of chocolate before the experiment indulge more in chocolate during the experiment, even when the initial indulgence was imposed by the experimenter. Eating a piece of chocolate, this suggests, can induce a period during which chocolate is more appealing.

Published
2015

10. Crises, consensus, and conviction : the core executive and the institutionalisation of British efficiency reforms

Author

Trani, Brett

Subjects
320, Government spending policy, Economic policy
Abstract

In the aftermath of the 2008 economic recession, governments across the globe were forced to confront a difficult reality: growth and spending would need to be revised dramatically downward while central government systems would have to be made more efficient. In the United Kingdom specifically, the 2010 general election became a referendum on how quickly and severely to implement austerity policies the likes of which had not been seen for generations. Why did the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition choose austerity when other alternatives, such as a public sector stimulus package, were also available? To answer this question this research seeks to understand how and why political actors in the United Kingdom respond to economic and political crises through the implementation of specific efficiency reforms. This is accomplished through two specific steps: the establishment of an analytical framework to better understand the dynamics of efficiency reforms and an in-depth study of the historical development of efficiency reforms from the early twentieth century through the present. A historical institutionalist theoretical foundation is employed in order to understand the evolution of ideas throughout this time span. A thorough understanding of institutional effects, including aspects of lock-in effects and process tracing, are essential components of understanding why powerful political actors choose certain efficiency reforms over others. Ultimately, this research is meant as a first step towards a greater understanding of efficiency in government. Previous research has examined specific reforms in relative isolation without the benefit of historical context. By systematically tracing the evolution of efficiency reforms across different eras a more complete understanding of policies and political actors is established. Further research, including comparative studies across political systems and the incorporation of quantitative date, is discussed in the conclusion.

Published
2014

11. Economic thought and policy in the Liberal Party, c. 1929-1964

Author

Sloman, Peter Jack and Jackson, Benjamin

Subjects
320.510941, History, History of Britain and Europe, Modern Britain and Europe, Public policy, Welfare state reform and change, Political ideologies, Economic and Social History, economic policy, economic thought, Liberalism, Liberal Party
Abstract

This thesis examines the reception, generation, and use of economic ideas in the British Liberal Party during the period between its decline in the inter-war years and its revival under Jo Grimond. It uses archival sources, party publications, and the political press to reconstruct the Liberal Party’s internal discourse about economic policy from the 1920s to the 1960s, and sets this discourse in the context of wider economic and political developments: the ‘Keynesian revolution’ in economic theory and British public policy, recurrent political interest in economic planning, and growing concern about relative economic decline. The strength of the two-party system which developed after the First World War meant that the Liberal Party spent most of this period in opposition, and even in the coalition governments of 1931-2 and 1940-5 Liberals had limited input into economic policy-making. As historians have frequently noted, however, the party played an important role in introducing Keynesian ideas to British politics through Lloyd George’s 1929 pledge to ‘conquer unemployment’, and seemed to anticipate the post-war managed economy in important respects. At the same time, the party maintained a close relationship with the economics profession, and vocally championed free trade and competitive markets. This thesis highlights the eclecticism of the Liberal Party’s economic heritage, and its continuing ambivalence towards state intervention. Although Liberals were early and sincere supporters of Keynesian demand-management policies, and took a close interest in economic planning proposals in the 1920s, 1940s and 1960s, their interventionism was frequently constrained by their internationalism and their support for free markets. Most Liberals, then, were neither unreconstructed Gladstonians nor unequivocal supporters of Britain’s post-war settlement. Rather, successive party leaders sought to integrate new economic knowledge with traditional Liberal commitments, in order to make both a credible contribution to policy debates and a distinctive appeal to the electorate.

Published
2013

12. The politics of profits: Profit squeeze and political-economic change in Sweden, 1975–1985

Abstract

In the late 1970s, the Swedish economy faced a profit squeeze which threatened to hamper investments and hence the creation of jobs. This engendered a massive debate in the media and among economists and policymakers. This paper investigates the discussion of “the politics of profits”, the policy measures directed towards manipulating the distribution between capital income and labour income in the Swedish economy from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s. The paper indicates that the capital-labour distribution varied significantly over time and that this became a major issue of debate, and shows the relevance of “the politics of profits” for analyses of economic policy change in the 1970s and 1980s.

Published
2023

13. Situación del FONAMYPE y su potencial como instrumento de desarrollo del Paraguay

Abstract

The micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) sector represents 98% of the business structure in Paraguay, which demonstrates the scope and impact it represents for the social andeconomic development of the country. In this line, in 2012 Law No. 4457 "For Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs)" was enacted, said provision establishes the basic and annual budgetthat should be allocated to the sector, going on to constitute the fund called FONAMYPE. The objective of this work is to be able to quantify the resources allocated according to the legislation in force since its enactment, in that sense, the methodology applied is to analyze the allocation and execution of the General Budget of theNation until 2022, for the governing body of the MSMEs which is the Ministry of Industry and Commerce and within this specifically, When comparing what is established in the legal provision with respect to what is effectively allocated and executed, it is evident that compliance represents an average of 7.33% during this period of time with respect to the total established in the current legal regulations. Given the importance of the sector for the national economy, it is essential to strengthen public policies and effective investment in MSMEs, El sector de las micro, pequeñas y medianas empresas (MIPYMES) representa el 98% de la estructura empresarial en Paraguay, esto demuestra el alcance e impacto que representa para el desarrollo social y económico del país. En esta línea, en el año 2012 se ha promulgado la Ley N° 4457 “Para las Micro, Pequeñas y Medianas Empresas (MIPYMES)” dicha disposición establece el presupuesto básico y anual que debe ser destinado al sector, pasando a constituirse el fondo denominado FONAMYPE. El objetivo de estetrabajo es poder cuantificar los recursos asignados de acuerdo con la legislación vigente desde su promulgación, en ese sentido, la metodología aplicada consiste en analizar la asignación y ejecución del Presupuesto General de la Nación hasta el año 2022, para el estamento rector de las MIPYMES que es el Ministerio de Industria y Comercio y dentro de este de forma específica, el Viceministerio de MIPYMES, donde se evidencia que los recursos son escasos y al comparar lo establecido en la disposición legal con respecto a lo efectivamente asignado y ejecutado, se evidencia que el cumplimiento representa en promedio el 7,33% durante este periodo de tiempo con respecto al total establecido en la normativa legal vigente. Por la importancia que representa el sector para laeconomía a nivel nacional, es fundamental el fortalecimiento de las políticas públicas y la inversión efectiva en las MIPYMES.

Published
2023

14. Transferencia de precios en los mercados agrícolas de Ambato y Riobamba

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: The transmission of prices in the agricultural market is an important field of study within agricultural markets, it allows to analyze the formation of prices and the behavior of consumers. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this work is to validate the presence of price transmission in the potato market in the provinces of Tungurahua and Chimborazo. METHOD: The work uses an Autoregressive Vector model, using official information from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock for the period January 2013 - April 2020, which represents a total of 88 observations. RESULTS: The existence of causality is evidenced, the presence of an active price transmission is also verified, additionally, a long-term relationship is appreciated between the markets of the provinces of Tungurahua and Chimborazo. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The geographical proximity and the commercial history of the two provinces causes a constant relationship causing the price of a product, in this case the potato, to move from one market to another almost immediately, additionally it is worth mentioning that the relationship is mainly unidirectional., INTRODUCCIÓN: La transmisión de precios en el mercado agrícola es un campo de estudio importante dentro de los mercados agrícolas, permite analizar la formación de precios y el comportamiento de los consumidores. OBJETIVO. Este trabajo tiene como objetivo principal validar la presencia de transmisión de precios en el mercado de la papa de las provincias de Tungurahua y Chimborazo. MÉTODO. El trabajo utiliza un modelo de Vectores Autorregresivos, utilizando información oficial del Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganadería para el período enero 2013 – abril 2020, lo que representa un total de 88 observaciones. RESULTADOS. Se evidencia la existencia de causalidad, además se comprueba la presencia de una transmisión de precios activa, adicionalmente se aprecia relación a largo plazo entre los mercados de las provincias de Tungurahua y Chimborazo. DISCUSIÓN Y CONCLUSIONES. La cercanía geográfica y la historia comercial de las dos provincias provoca una relación constante haciendo que el precio de un producto, en este caso la papa, se traslade de un mercado a otro casi de manera inmediata, adicionalmente vale mencionar que la relación es principalmente unidireccional.

Published
2023

15. Situación del FONAMYPE y su potencial como instrumento de desarrollo del Paraguay

Abstract

The micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) sector represents 98% of the business structure in Paraguay, which demonstrates the scope and impact it represents for the social andeconomic development of the country. In this line, in 2012 Law No. 4457 "For Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs)" was enacted, said provision establishes the basic and annual budgetthat should be allocated to the sector, going on to constitute the fund called FONAMYPE. The objective of this work is to be able to quantify the resources allocated according to the legislation in force since its enactment, in that sense, the methodology applied is to analyze the allocation and execution of the General Budget of theNation until 2022, for the governing body of the MSMEs which is the Ministry of Industry and Commerce and within this specifically, When comparing what is established in the legal provision with respect to what is effectively allocated and executed, it is evident that compliance represents an average of 7.33% during this period of time with respect to the total established in the current legal regulations. Given the importance of the sector for the national economy, it is essential to strengthen public policies and effective investment in MSMEs, El sector de las micro, pequeñas y medianas empresas (MIPYMES) representa el 98% de la estructura empresarial en Paraguay, esto demuestra el alcance e impacto que representa para el desarrollo social y económico del país. En esta línea, en el año 2012 se ha promulgado la Ley N° 4457 “Para las Micro, Pequeñas y Medianas Empresas (MIPYMES)” dicha disposición establece el presupuesto básico y anual que debe ser destinado al sector, pasando a constituirse el fondo denominado FONAMYPE. El objetivo de estetrabajo es poder cuantificar los recursos asignados de acuerdo con la legislación vigente desde su promulgación, en ese sentido, la metodología aplicada consiste en analizar la asignación y ejecución del Presupuesto General de la Nación hasta el año 2022, para el estamento rector de las MIPYMES que es el Ministerio de Industria y Comercio y dentro de este de forma específica, el Viceministerio de MIPYMES, donde se evidencia que los recursos son escasos y al comparar lo establecido en la disposición legal con respecto a lo efectivamente asignado y ejecutado, se evidencia que el cumplimiento representa en promedio el 7,33% durante este periodo de tiempo con respecto al total establecido en la normativa legal vigente. Por la importancia que representa el sector para laeconomía a nivel nacional, es fundamental el fortalecimiento de las políticas públicas y la inversión efectiva en las MIPYMES.

Published
2023

16. Congressional Oversight of U.S. Government Programs

Abstract

Provides detailed overview of how the U.S. Congress conducts oversight of federal agency programs. Contents include a letter from a member of Congress to an agency head concerning an environmental development in Indiana, information on the foundations of congressional oversight, details on how Congress may require agency reports on various subjects in public laws, an example of a congressionally mandated report by the Department of Defense, documentation of congressional funding of individual federal agencies, examples of congressional committee hearings, congressional committee issuance of oversight and investigative reports which may include dissenting opinions, Congressional Budget Office cost estimates on congressional committee reported legislation, congressional committee biennial activity reports, and useful websites for congressional oversight information including congressional support agencies like the Congressional Budget Office, Congressional Research Service, and Government Accountability Office.

Published
2023

17. Congressional Oversight of U.S. Government Programs

Abstract

Provides detailed overview of how the U.S. Congress conducts oversight of federal agency programs. Contents include a letter from a member of Congress to an agency head concerning an environmental development in Indiana, information on the foundations of congressional oversight, details on how Congress may require agency reports on various subjects in public laws, an example of a congressionally mandated report by the Department of Defense, documentation of congressional funding of individual federal agencies, examples of congressional committee hearings, congressional committee issuance of oversight and investigative reports which may include dissenting opinions, Congressional Budget Office cost estimates on congressional committee reported legislation, congressional committee biennial activity reports, and useful websites for congressional oversight information including congressional support agencies like the Congressional Budget Office, Congressional Research Service, and Government Accountability Office.

Published
2023

18. Crisis, política económica y desigualdad en España

Abstract

Este trabajo analiza el impacto social que tanto el colapso económico como las políticas desplegadas durante la crisis han producido en España. Esta crisis ha puesto de manifiesto la fragilidad del crecimiento económico español. Además, tanto las medidas de austeridad adoptadas a partir de 2010 como las reformas en el mercado de trabajo y el Estado de Bienestar han empeorado las condiciones de vida de la población. La consecuencia de estos años de crisis y política económica es un aumento explosivo del paro, la reducción de los ingresos personales, la intensificación de la desigualdad y el aumento de la pobreza., This paper analyses the social impact of both the economic collapse and policies adopted during the crisis in Spain. This crisis has highlighted the fragility of the Spanish economic growth. In addition, both the austerity measures adopted since 2010 as reforms in labour market and welfare state system have worsened the living conditions of the population. The result of this years of crisis and economic policy is an explosive increase in unemployment, reduction of personal incomes, intensifying inequality and increasing poverty., Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales, TRUE, pub

Published
2023

19. Éxitos y fracasos del ordoliberalismo: la flexiseguridad alemana como modelo de desarrollo europeo

Abstract

El presente trabajo es un análisis del modelo de flexiseguridad, enmarcada en la tradición ordoliberal alemana y su modelo de cogestión. Su objetivo es dilucidar los factores de éxito y de fracaso de las reformas estructurales que se llevaron a cabo en Alemania a principios de nuestro siglo a partir del análisis de su impacto en una serie de variables laborales, sociales y macroeconómicas. Los datos muestran que la generalización del empleo precario ha provocado una dependencia de la demanda externa por parte de la economía alemana, lo cual a su vez ha impulsado un régimen de acumulación guiado por las exportaciones, que explota y agrava las divergencias dentro de la UEM., This study is an analysis of the flexicurity model, contextualizing it within the German ordoliberal tradition and its co-determination model. Its aim is to disentangle the complex factors that have contributed to the success and the failures of the structural reforms that took place in Germany in the beginning of this century. To do that we focus the analysis on its impact on a number of labour-related, social and macroeconomic variables. The data that the generalization of precarious employment has led to a dependency on external demand of the German economy, which has fostered an exports-led accumulation regime that exploits and worsens de divergences within the EMU., Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales, TRUE, pub

Published
2023

20. Statewide Economic Development Strategy – 2023

Abstract

During the One Utah Summit held on May 10, 2022, Gov. Cox unveiled the Utah Economic Vision 2030, developed by the Unified Economic Opportunity Commission (UEOC). The vision outlines the state's strategies for the year 2030, which is to “create the strongest economy in the world while maintaining a world-class quality of life and cultivating opportunities for all Utahns." According to the vision, the state is experiencing significant population and economic growth, leading to the emergence of a new Utah. The document emphasizes that accommodating this growth is the most critical economic challenge in the foreseeable future. It further states that Utah's approach to coordinating and managing this growth over the next decade will establish a precedent for economic and community planning in the coming century. Looking ahead to 2030 and beyond, the primary opportunity and challenge for Utah's leaders will be finding a balance to leverage the momentum of America's fastest-growing economy without placing excessive strain on the state's communities.

Published
2023

21. Joint Utah Mexico Partnership

Abstract

The United States is Mexico's most important trading partner, and U.S.- based companies account for more than half of Mexico's foreign investment. The United States provides between two-fifths and one-half of Mexican imports and is the destination for some four-fifths of the country's exports. The Joint Utah Mexico Partnership (JUMP) is an initiative from the Utah Governor's Office of Economic Opportunity and the Mexican Consulate in Salt Lake City. JUMP provides 12 key recommendations to improve Utah's relationship with Mexico across four priority areas: business and trade, workforce and talent, culture and belonging, and foreign language acquisition.

Published
2023

22. Utah Center for Immigration and Integration

Abstract

The Utah Center for Immigration and Integration assists individuals and businesses in navigating pathways to recruit and retain global talent. It also engages with state and federal government partners to convene, facilitate, and advise on immigration policy and strategies promoting economic opportunity for Utah immigrants. As the refugee and immigrant population grows in Utah, the Utah Center for Immigration and Integration strives to be responsive to the economic opportunities that benefit businesses and communities while building on the state's welcoming spirit.

Published
2023

23. Policy Brief : Housing Prices and Affordability (February 2023)

Abstract

In 2022, higher home prices and a doubling of the mortgage rate combined to erode housing affordability. Thus, homeownership has become more difficult for many of Utah’s 333,000 renter households. However, for the 770,000 homeowners, rising prices in 2022 added over $50 billion in increased equity (wealth). Current homeowners can comfortably weather the affordability threat, aware that higher prices add to their wealth. But for renters and future generations of homeowners, declining affordability thwarts housing and wealth opportunities.

Published
2023

24. Policy Brief : An Economic Overview for Utah and U.S. (February 2023)

Abstract

Utah enters 2023 facing significant economic uncertainty as decision-makers continue to grapple with ever-changing pockets of economic strength and weakness. The post-pandemic economy has altered many traditional economic relationships. These economic transformations make accurate predictions challenging because it's unclear if or when old patterns will return, or if new arrangements will chart a different economic course. Current economic challenges amid an overheated economy include stubbornly high inflation, rapidly rising interest rates, low consumer sentiment, and unmistakable construction and real estate slowdowns. At the same time, many often-underappreciated economic buffers exist. Extremely low unemployment coupled with improving supply chains and very strong overall household, firm, and state and local government financial reserves combine to provide a hedge against economic challenges that could spiral into a recession. Economic performance in 2023 will depend on economic decisions made in this complex new environment.

Published
2023

25. Making Northern Ireland the location of choice for wealth-creating industries of the future

Abstract

Brexit offers both a threat and an opportunity for research and innovation in Northern Ireland. The opportunity is to create a hub of vibrant R&I activity based around an ambitious vision, one that seeks to move Northern Ireland to the highest level of global competitiveness, building and attracting innovative industries linked to rapidly growing market sectors. Realising this vision will require a concerted effort towards a common goal that spans politics, economics, education, and industry. At the core of this vision is a strategy that seeks to secure the future welfare and prosperity of the people of Northern Ireland, by building mutual respect across communities, and a well-educated and creative society, that is globally recognised for its innovative approaches to solving issues in critical sectors like energy, health, transport, agriculture, fisheries, construction, and the environment. Political and economic support will flow from Westminster, Dublin, Brussels and Washington and progress will rapidly attract significant investment from the private sector. Failure to act will consolidate a divided and fragmented society that cannot deliver this vision, offering only a future of more confrontation, suffering and lost hope. The scale of the current opportunity is truly transformative. Let us make it happen!

Published
2023

26. Politikers beslut om åtgärder under coronapandemin. En analys av restriktioner, finanspolitik samt penningpolitik under coronapandemin.

Abstract

The corona pandemic has mainly affected health conditions and mortality, but has also contributed to economic costs. In this paper, I analyzed the consequences of restrictions on excess mortality and macroeconomics as well as the impact of economic policy measures on the economy. Based on data from European OECD countries in 2010-2022, I found evidence that restrictions do not reduce excess mortality but instead cause falls in economic activity. The result of the empirical study support that mandatory restrictions are an ineffective strategy to save human lives. Fiscal policy measures showed a limited impact on the economy, but monetary policy measures showed to be ineffective and failed to alleviate the economic strains experienced by households and businesses. The results indicates that the costs of the measures put in place to combat the corona pandemic and the economic costs of the restrictions exceeded the benefits the abovementioned measures brought to communities.

Published
2023

27. Making Northern Ireland the location of choice for wealth-creating industries of the future

Abstract

Brexit offers both a threat and an opportunity for research and innovation in Northern Ireland. The opportunity is to create a hub of vibrant R&I activity based around an ambitious vision, one that seeks to move Northern Ireland to the highest level of global competitiveness, building and attracting innovative industries linked to rapidly growing market sectors. Realising this vision will require a concerted effort towards a common goal that spans politics, economics, education, and industry. At the core of this vision is a strategy that seeks to secure the future welfare and prosperity of the people of Northern Ireland, by building mutual respect across communities, and a well-educated and creative society, that is globally recognised for its innovative approaches to solving issues in critical sectors like energy, health, transport, agriculture, fisheries, construction, and the environment. Political and economic support will flow from Westminster, Dublin, Brussels and Washington and progress will rapidly attract significant investment from the private sector. Failure to act will consolidate a divided and fragmented society that cannot deliver this vision, offering only a future of more confrontation, suffering and lost hope. The scale of the current opportunity is truly transformative. Let us make it happen!

Published
2023

34. Time Lords and Star Cops: British Science Fiction Television in the 1970s-80s

Abstract

British science fiction television series of the late-1970s and 80s present dystopian worlds and fatalistic themes. They appear at a tumultuous time in British politics – the seismic shift from the consensus era to the election of Margaret Thatcher’s government in 1979 and the ushering in of neoliberal economics. This book begins by discussing the themes of 1970s British science fiction series – collectivism, teleology, technology, scientific progress – and goes on to show that they have been replaced in the Thatcher era by much darker tropes – individualism, Machiavellian behaviour, selfishness, personal wealth accumulation. The optimism of the 70s-era series has been superseded by inertia, loss and futility. Characters have moved from hopeful, traditional and rational to duplicitous, ironic and cynical. The book undertakes an analysis of these series to determine if these changes can be read as a response to Britain’s changing political landscape.

Published
2023

35. Making Northern Ireland the location of choice for wealth-creating industries of the future

Abstract

Brexit offers both a threat and an opportunity for research and innovation in Northern Ireland. The opportunity is to create a hub of vibrant R&I activity based around an ambitious vision, one that seeks to move Northern Ireland to the highest level of global competitiveness, building and attracting innovative industries linked to rapidly growing market sectors. Realising this vision will require a concerted effort towards a common goal that spans politics, economics, education, and industry. At the core of this vision is a strategy that seeks to secure the future welfare and prosperity of the people of Northern Ireland, by building mutual respect across communities, and a well-educated and creative society, that is globally recognised for its innovative approaches to solving issues in critical sectors like energy, health, transport, agriculture, fisheries, construction, and the environment. Political and economic support will flow from Westminster, Dublin, Brussels and Washington and progress will rapidly attract significant investment from the private sector. Failure to act will consolidate a divided and fragmented society that cannot deliver this vision, offering only a future of more confrontation, suffering and lost hope. The scale of the current opportunity is truly transformative. Let us make it happen!

Published
2023

36. Making Northern Ireland the location of choice for wealth-creating industries of the future

Abstract

Brexit offers both a threat and an opportunity for research and innovation in Northern Ireland. The opportunity is to create a hub of vibrant R&I activity based around an ambitious vision, one that seeks to move Northern Ireland to the highest level of global competitiveness, building and attracting innovative industries linked to rapidly growing market sectors. Realising this vision will require a concerted effort towards a common goal that spans politics, economics, education, and industry. At the core of this vision is a strategy that seeks to secure the future welfare and prosperity of the people of Northern Ireland, by building mutual respect across communities, and a well-educated and creative society, that is globally recognised for its innovative approaches to solving issues in critical sectors like energy, health, transport, agriculture, fisheries, construction, and the environment. Political and economic support will flow from Westminster, Dublin, Brussels and Washington and progress will rapidly attract significant investment from the private sector. Failure to act will consolidate a divided and fragmented society that cannot deliver this vision, offering only a future of more confrontation, suffering and lost hope. The scale of the current opportunity is truly transformative. Let us make it happen!

Published
2023

37. Making Northern Ireland the location of choice for wealth-creating industries of the future

Abstract

Brexit offers both a threat and an opportunity for research and innovation in Northern Ireland. The opportunity is to create a hub of vibrant R&I activity based around an ambitious vision, one that seeks to move Northern Ireland to the highest level of global competitiveness, building and attracting innovative industries linked to rapidly growing market sectors. Realising this vision will require a concerted effort towards a common goal that spans politics, economics, education, and industry. At the core of this vision is a strategy that seeks to secure the future welfare and prosperity of the people of Northern Ireland, by building mutual respect across communities, and a well-educated and creative society, that is globally recognised for its innovative approaches to solving issues in critical sectors like energy, health, transport, agriculture, fisheries, construction, and the environment. Political and economic support will flow from Westminster, Dublin, Brussels and Washington and progress will rapidly attract significant investment from the private sector. Failure to act will consolidate a divided and fragmented society that cannot deliver this vision, offering only a future of more confrontation, suffering and lost hope. The scale of the current opportunity is truly transformative. Let us make it happen!

Published
2023

41. U.S. Energy Information Administration Information Resources

Abstract

Provides information about the resources produced by U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. These resources cover energy statistics for U.S., states, the United States, and foreign countries. They also cover energy products as varied as coal, natural gas, nuclear energy, petroleum, and renewable energy.

Published
2023

42. Time Lords and Star Cops: British Science Fiction Television in the 1970s-80s

Abstract

British science fiction television series of the late-1970s and 80s present dystopian worlds and fatalistic themes. They appear at a tumultuous time in British politics – the seismic shift from the consensus era to the election of Margaret Thatcher’s government in 1979 and the ushering in of neoliberal economics. This book begins by discussing the themes of 1970s British science fiction series – collectivism, teleology, technology, scientific progress – and goes on to show that they have been replaced in the Thatcher era by much darker tropes – individualism, Machiavellian behaviour, selfishness, personal wealth accumulation. The optimism of the 70s-era series has been superseded by inertia, loss and futility. Characters have moved from hopeful, traditional and rational to duplicitous, ironic and cynical. The book undertakes an analysis of these series to determine if these changes can be read as a response to Britain’s changing political landscape.

Published
2023

43. U.S. Energy Information Administration Information Resources

Abstract

Provides information about the resources produced by U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. These resources cover energy statistics for U.S., states, the United States, and foreign countries. They also cover energy products as varied as coal, natural gas, nuclear energy, petroleum, and renewable energy.

Published
2023

44. Fresh Air with Terry Gross, February 28, 2023: Interview with Jeanna Smialek; Review of The Coldest Case in Laramie

Abstract

Since its national debut in 1987, Fresh Air with Terry Gross has been a highly acclaimed and much adored weekday magazine among public radio listeners. Each week, nearly 4.8 million people turn to Peabody Award-winning host Terry Gross for insightful conversations with the leading voices in contemporary arts and issues. The renowned program reaches a global audience, with over 620 public radio stations broadcasting Fresh Air, and 3 million podcast downloads each week. Fresh Air has broken the mold of 'talk show' by weaving together superior journalism and intimate storytelling from modern-day intellectuals, politicians and artists alike. Through probing questions and careful research, Gross's interviews are lauded for revealing a fresh perspective on cultural icons and trends. Her thorough conversations are often complemented by commentary from well-known contributors. Fresh Air is produced at WHYY-FM in Philadelphia and broadcast nationally by NPR., (1.) Journalist JEANNA SMIALEK writes about the economy and Federal Reserve Board for The New York Times. Her new book is Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes on a New Age of Crisis. She previously covered economics at Bloomberg News, and wrote feature stories for Businessweek Magazine. (INTERVIEW BY DAVE DAVIES) (THIS INTERVIEW CONTINUES INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE SHOW). (2.) Podcast critic NICK QUAY reviews the new podcast series The Coldest Case in Laramie, by Serial Productions. All eight episodes of the show have been released

Published
2023

45. Die wirtschaftlichen Lage der Bevölkerung und die Resonanz der staatlichen Entlastungsmaßnahmen: Ergebnisse einer Repräsentativbefragung der Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahre

Abstract

Nach wie vor herrscht große Skepsis in Bezug auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung. Zwei Drittel der Bevölkerung rechnen für die nächsten 12 Monate mit einer schwachen wirtschafflichen Entwicklung. Mittlerweile gehen auch 67 Prozent davon aus, dass sich ihre eigene Lage verschlechtern wird. Die aktuelle Bilanz der eigenen wirtschaftlichen Lage zeigt, dass die Auswirkungen der Krise auf die Bevölkerung wachsen, sich bisher aber noch in Grenzen halten: Der Anteil der Bevölkerung, der mit der eigenen wirtschaftlichen Lage zufrieden ist, hat sich seit 2021 von 53 auf 45 Prozent verringert; der Anteil, der die eigene Lage als schlecht beschreibt, ist seit 2020 von 8 auf 12 Prozent angestiegen. Die Einschätzung der Energieversorgung hingegen entspannt sich. Noch vor 2 Monaten rechnete die Mehrheit der Bevölkerung für den Winter mit einer ernsten Energiekrise. Aktuell befürchten das nur noch 27 Prozent. Auch das Risiko von Stromausfällen wird eher als gering eingeschätzt. Sorgen, dass die eigene Energieversorgung in den nächsten Monaten nicht gesichert sein könnte, sind geradezu erdrutschartig verfallen: Im Juli fürchteten 61 Prozent um die Sicherheit ihrer eigenen Versorgung, aktuell nur noch 30 Prozent. 44 Prozent sind mittlerweile völlig unbesorgt. Die Belastung durch Inflation wird als stark wahrgenommen, die Inflationserwartungen sind aber rückläufig. Die große Mehrheit (69 Prozent) empfindet die Preissteigerungen nach wie vor als starke Belastung, besonders die Preissteigerungen bei Lebensmitteln und Energie. 51 Prozent der Bürger und Bürgerinnen müssen sich aufgrund der hohen Inflation erheblich einschränken, wobei diese Zwänge extrem schichtgebunden sind (schwächere soziale Schichten 75 Prozent, höhere 25 Prozent). Die überwältigende Mehrheit der Bevölkerung geht davon aus, dass die Inflation kein vorübergehendes Phänomen ist. Die Sorge, dass auch die nächsten Monate von einem starken Preisanstieg geprägt sein werden, geht jedoch zurück: Vor einem halben Jahr rechnet

Published
2023

48. 'The charm of emission trading': Ideas of German public economists on economic policy in times of crises

Abstract

Economists have become very influential intellectuals in our contemporary society. The scientific knowledge produced by the discipline and the academic status of economists can be considered as a decisive power resource in media debates and politics. The current state of economics has been criticized in the past one and a half decades regarding the ontological and epistemic foundations of the discipline and its policy implications. However, especially since the Covid-19 pandemic, it seems as if publicly presented positions have drastically changed. Instead of advocating pure market liberalism, the state is attributed an important position and market failures are discussed intensively. Given these shifts, this paper analyzes the positions that important German economists present after the unfolding of the Covid-19 pandemic about 'the economy' and economic policy. Methodologically, the paper draws on critical discourse analysis (CDA) of recent interviews on the YouTube channel 'Jung & Naiv' with leading public economists in Germany. By doing so, this study elaborates on the different dimension of economic knowledge that is articulated by public representatives of economics. On the ontological and theoretical level, we find a rather monistic understanding of 'the economy', involving the interplay between markets and the state. Public economists repeatedly emphasize the superiority of market economies and their price mechanism. With regards to economic policy, a shift from rather free-market approaches towards moderate Keynesianism and market design liberalism becomes apparent, indicating a flexible pragmatism.

Published
2023

49. Monetary Policy for a Resource-Rich Economy and the Zero Lower Bound

Abstract

The paper studies monetary policy (MP) under a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the basis of a DSGE model. The economy is open and highly dependent on the terms of trade (TOT). Dynamics are driven by a TOT shock and an external interest rate shock. The change in the transmission of these external shocks in the presence of ZLB is analyzed. Unlike developed economies, for resource-rich countries the ZLB problem becomes relevant during economic expansion when external economic conditions improve. Positive external shocks lead to strengthening of the national currency, a decrease in inflation and a decrease in interest rate under inflation targeting MP. The paper shows that, with an inflation target of 4% and no persistence in interest rates, a positive TOT shock of 1 standard deviation is sufficient to drive the economy into a ZLB. At the same time, if the economy faces ZLB, the impact of the shocks is reduced, since there is an increase in real interest rates, which restrains an increase in household consumption and, accordingly, aggregate demand. Optimal MP rules under the ZLB are analyzed. When conducting MP, it turns out to be optimal to maintain high inertia in interest rates and be less responsive to changes in inflation, which minimizes the likelihood of binding ZLB. Contrary to optimal MP rules, the current MP of the Bank of Russia, along with the inflation target of 4%, excludes the possibility of reaching the ZLB, but is far from the optimal degree of response to changes in inflation. It is also found that, under the current MP, the likelihood of reaching the effective lower bound (ELB) is quite significant.

Published
2023

50. Polen nach dem globalen Abschwung: ein fiskalpolitischer Balanceakt

Abstract

Auch dieses Jahr wird Polen zu den wachstumsstärksten Volkswirtschaften Europas gehören, die Banken sind stabil und der Ausblick auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung ist besser als fast überall in West- und Ostmitteleuropa. In den westeuropäischen Medien wird Polen daher (noch) als "Wirtschaftswunderland" gefeiert. Die bislang günstige Entwicklung verleitet indes zu wirtschaftspolitischer Trägheit, vor allem bei der Budgetkonsolidierung. Die aktuelle fiskalpolitische Gratwanderung ist gefährlich, da die Erwartungen an Polen angesichts des relativ guten Abschneidens in der globalen Krise hoch sind.

Published
2023

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