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BACKGROUND: Surrogates of antiviral efficacy are needed for COVID-19. We aimed to investigate the relationship between the virological effect of treatment and clinical efficacy as measured by progression to severe disease in outpatients treated for mild-to-moderate COVID-19. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Scopus, and medRxiv from database inception to Aug 16, 2023, for randomised placebo-controlled trials that tested virus-directed treatments (ie, any monoclonal antibodies, convalescent plasma, or antivirals) in non-hospitalised individuals with COVID-19. We only included studies that reported both clinical outcomes (ie, rate of disease progression to hospitalisation or death) and virological outcomes (ie, viral load within the first 7 days of treatment). We extracted summary data from eligible reports, with discrepancies resolved through discussion. We used an established meta-regression model with random effects to assess the association between clinical efficacy and virological treatment effect, and calculated I2 to quantify residual study heterogeneity. FINDINGS: We identified 1718 unique studies, of which 22 (with a total of 16 684 participants) met the inclusion criteria, and were in primarily unvaccinated individuals. Risk of bias was assessed as low in 19 of 22 studies for clinical outcomes, whereas for virological outcomes, a high risk of bias was assessed in 11 studies, some risk in ten studies, and a low risk in one study. The unadjusted relative risk of disease progression for each extra log10 copies per mL reduction in viral load in treated compared with placebo groups was 0·12 (95% CI 0·04-0·34; p<0·0001) on day 3, 0·20 (0·08-0·50; p=0·0006) on day 5, and 0·53 (0·30-0·94; p=0·030) on day 7. The residual heterogeneity in our meta-regression was estimated as low (I2=0% [0-53] on day 3, 0% [0-71] on day 5, and 0% [0-43] on day 7). INTERPRETATION: Despite the aggregation of studies with differing designs, and evid

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) breakthrough infection of vaccinated individuals is increasingly common with the circulation of highly immune evasive and transmissible Omicron variants. Here, we report the dynamics and durability of recalled spike-specific humoral immunity following Omicron BA.1 or BA.2 breakthrough infection, with longitudinal sampling up to 8 months after infection. Both BA.1 and BA.2 infections robustly boosted neutralization activity against the infecting strain while expanding breadth against BA.4, although neutralization activity was substantially reduced for the more recent XBB and BQ.1.1 strains. Cross-reactive memory B cells against both ancestral and Omicron spike were predominantly expanded by infection, with limited recruitment of de novo Omicron-specific B cells or antibodies. Modeling of neutralization titers predicts that protection from symptomatic reinfection against antigenically similar strains will be durable but is undermined by new emerging strains with further neutralization escape.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials of passive antibodies as treatment and prophylaxis for COVID-19 have reported variable efficacy. However, the determinants of efficacy have not been identified. We aimed to assess how the dose and timing of administration affect treatment outcome. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we extracted data from published studies of passive antibody treatment from Jan 1, 2019, to Jan 31, 2023, that were identified by searching multiple databases, including MEDLINE, PubMed, and ClinicalTrials.gov. We included only randomised controlled trials of passive antibody administration for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19. To compare administered antibody dose between different treatments, we used data on in-vitro neutralisation titres to normalise dose by antibody potency. We used mixed-effects regression and model fitting to analyse the relationship between timing, dose and efficacy. FINDINGS: We found 58 randomised controlled trials that investigated passive antibody therapies for the treatment or prevention of COVID-19. Earlier clinical stage at treatment initiation was highly predictive of the efficacy of both monoclonal antibodies (p<0·0001) and convalescent plasma therapy (p=0·030) in preventing progression to subsequent stages, with either prophylaxis or treatment in outpatients showing the greatest effects. For the treatment of outpatients with COVID-19, we found a significant association between the dose administered and efficacy in preventing hospitalisation (relative risk 0·77; p<0·0001). Using this relationship, we predicted that no approved monoclonal antibody was expected to provide more than 30% efficacy against some omicron (B.1.1.529) subvariants, such as BQ.1.1. INTERPRETATION: Early administration before hospitalisation and sufficient doses of passive antibody therapy are crucial to achieving high efficacy in preventing clinical progression. The relationship between dose and efficacy provides a fra

Multiple monoclonal antibodies have been shown to be effective for both prophylaxis and therapy for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here we aggregate data from randomized controlled trials assessing the use of monoclonal antibodies (mAb) in preventing symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. We use data on the in vivo concentration of mAb and the associated protection from COVID-19 over time to model the dose-response relationship of mAb for prophylaxis. We estimate that 50% protection from COVID-19 is achieved with a mAb concentration of 96-fold of the in vitro IC50 (95% CI: 32-285). This relationship provides a tool for predicting the prophylactic efficacy of new mAb and against SARS-CoV-2 variants. Finally, we compare the relationship between neutralization titer and protection from COVID-19 after either mAb treatment or vaccination. We find no significant difference between the 50% protective titer for mAb and vaccination, although sample sizes limited the power to detect a difference.

The ability for vaccines to protect against infectious diseases varies among individuals, but computational models employed to inform policy typically do not account for this variation. Here we examine this issue: we implement a model of vaccine efficacy developed in the context of SARS-CoV-2 in order to evaluate the general implications of modelling correlates of protection on the individual level. Due to high levels of variation in immune response, the distributions of individual-level protection emerging from this model tend to be highly dispersed, and are often bimodal. We describe the specification of the model, provide an intuitive parameterisation, and comment on its general robustness. We show that the model can be viewed as an intermediate between the typical approaches that consider the mode of vaccine action to be either "all-or-nothing" or "leaky". Our view based on this analysis is that individual variation in correlates of protection is an important consideration that may be crucial to designing and implementing models for estimating population-level impacts of vaccination programs.

Vaccine protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection has been shown to be strongly correlated with neutralising antibody titres; however, this has not yet been demonstrated for severe COVID-19. To explore whether this relationship also holds for severe COVID-19, we performed a systematic search for studies reporting on protection against different SARS-CoV-2 clinical endpoints and extracted data from 15 studies. Since matched neutralising antibody titres were not available, we used the vaccine regimen, time since vaccination and variant of concern to predict corresponding neutralising antibody titres. We then compared the observed vaccine effectiveness reported in these studies to the protection predicted by a previously published model of the relationship between neutralising antibody titre and vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19. We find that predicted neutralising antibody titres are strongly correlated with observed vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic (Spearman [Formula: see text] = 0.95, p < 0.001) and severe (Spearman [Formula: see text] = 0.72, p < 0.001 for both) COVID-19 and that the loss of neutralising antibodies over time and to new variants are strongly predictive of observed vaccine protection against severe COVID-19.

Booster vaccination for the prevention of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is required to overcome loss of protection due to waning immunity and the spread of novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants. Studies have assessed the ability of existing ancestral-based vaccines as well as novel variant-modified vaccine regimens to boost immunity to different variants, and a crucial question is to assess the relative benefits of these different approaches. Here we aggregate data on neutralization titers from 14 reports (three published papers, eight preprints, two press releases and notes of one advisory committee meeting) comparing booster vaccination with the current ancestral-based vaccines or variant-modified vaccines. Using these data, we compare the immunogenicity of different vaccination regimens and predict the relative protection of booster vaccines under different scenarios. We predict that boosting with ancestral vaccines can markedly enhance protection against both symptomatic and severe disease from SARS-CoV-2 variant viruses, although variant-modified vaccines may provide additional protection, even if not matched to the circulating variants. This work provides an evidence-based framework to inform choices on future SARS-CoV-2 vaccine regimens.

Several studies have shown that neutralizing antibody levels correlate with immune protection from COVID-19 and have estimated the relationship between neutralizing antibodies and protection. However, results of these studies vary in terms of estimates of the level of neutralizing antibodies required for protection. By normalizing antibody titers, we found that study results converge on a consistent relationship between antibody levels and protection from COVID-19. This finding can be useful for planning future vaccine use, determining population immunity, and reducing the global effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Several SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been identified that partly escape serum neutralisation elicited by current vaccines. Studies have also shown that vaccines demonstrate reduced protection against symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants. We explored whether in-vitro neutralisation titres remain predictive of vaccine protection from infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants. METHODS: In this meta-analysis, we analysed published data from 24 identified studies on in-vitro neutralisation and clinical protection to understand the loss of neutralisation to existing SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. We integrated the results of this analysis into our existing statistical model relating in-vitro neutralisation to protection (parameterised on data from ancestral virus infection) to estimate vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 variants. We also analysed data on boosting of vaccine responses and use the model to predict the impact of booster vaccination on protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants. FINDINGS: The neutralising activity against the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 was highly predictive of neutralisation of variants of concern. Decreases in neutralisation titre to the alpha (1·6-fold), beta (8·8-fold), gamma (3·5-fold), and delta (3·9-fold) variants (compared to the ancestral virus) were not significantly different between different vaccines. Neutralisation remained strongly correlated with protection from symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (r S=0·81, p=0·0005) and the existing model remained predictive of vaccine efficacy against variants of concern once decreases in neutralisation to the variants of concern were incorporated. Modelling of predicted vaccine efficacy against variants over time suggested that protection against symptomatic infection might decrease below 50% within the first year after vaccination for some vaccines. Boosting of previously infected individuals with existing vaccines (which target ancestral virus) is predi

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been a mainstay for malaria prevention and treatment. However, emergence of drug resistance has incentivised development of new drugs. Defining the kinetics with which circulating parasitized red blood cells (pRBC) are lost after drug treatment, referred to as the "parasite clearance curve", has been critical for assessing drug efficacy; yet underlying mechanisms remain partly unresolved. The clearance curve may be shaped both by the rate at which drugs kill parasites, and the rate at which drug-affected parasites are removed from circulation. METHODS: In this context, two anti-malarials, SJ733, and an ACT partner drug, pyronaridine were compared against sodium artesunate in mice infected with Plasmodium berghei (strain ANKA). To measure each compound's capacity for pRBC removal in vivo, flow cytometric monitoring of a single cohort of fluorescently-labelled pRBC was employed, and combined with ex vivo parasite culture to assess parasite maturation and replication. RESULTS: These three compounds were found to be similarly efficacious in controlling established infection by reducing overall parasitaemia. While sodium artesunate acted relatively consistently across the life-stages, single-dose SJ733 elicited a biphasic effect, triggering rapid, partly phagocyte-dependent removal of trophozoites and schizonts, followed by arrest of residual ring-stages. In contrast, pyronaridine abrogated maturation of younger parasites, with less pronounced effects on mature parasites, while modestly increasing pRBC removal. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-malarials SJ733 and pyronaridine, though similarly efficacious in reducing overall parasitaemia in mice, differed markedly in their capacity to arrest replication and remove pRBC from circulation. Thus, similar parasite clearance curves can result for anti-malarials with distinct capacities to inhibit, kill and clear parasites.

Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 protects from infection and improves clinical outcomes in breakthrough infections, likely reflecting residual vaccine-elicited immunity and recall of immunological memory. Here, we define the early kinetics of spike-specific humoral and cellular immunity after vaccination of seropositive individuals and after Delta or Omicron breakthrough infection in vaccinated individuals. Early longitudinal sampling revealed the timing and magnitude of recall, with the phenotypic activation of B cells preceding an increase in neutralizing antibody titers. While vaccination of seropositive individuals resulted in robust recall of humoral and T cell immunity, recall of vaccine-elicited responses was delayed and variable in magnitude during breakthrough infections and depended on the infecting variant of concern. While the delayed kinetics of immune recall provides a potential mechanism for the lack of early control of viral replication, the recall of antibodies coincided with viral clearance and likely underpins the protective effects of vaccination against severe COVID-19.

A key characteristic of Plasmodium vivax parasites is their ability to adopt a latent liver-stage form called hypnozoites, able to cause relapse of infection months or years after a primary infection. Relapses of infection through hypnozoite activation are a major contributor to blood-stage infections in P vivax endemic regions and are thought to be influenced by factors such as febrile infections which may cause temporary changes in hypnozoite activation leading to 'temporal heterogeneity' in reactivation risk. In addition, immunity and variation in exposure to infection may be longer-term characteristics of individuals that lead to 'population heterogeneity' in hypnozoite activation. We analyze data on risk of P vivax in two previously published data sets from Papua New Guinea and the Thailand-Myanmar border region. Modeling different mechanisms of reactivation risk, we find strong evidence for population heterogeneity, with 30% of patients having almost 70% of all P vivax infections. Model fitting and data analysis indicates that individual variation in relapse risk is a primary source of heterogeneity of P vivax risk of recurrences. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01640574, NCT01074905, NCT02143934.

BACKGROUND: Analytical treatment interruptions (ATI) are pauses of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the context of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) cure trials. They are the gold standard in determining if interventions being tested can achieve sustained virological control in the absence of ART. However, withholding ART comes with risks and discomforts to trial participant. We used mathematical models to explore how ATI study design can be improved to maximize statistical power, while minimizing risks to participants. METHODS: Using previously observed dynamics of time to viral rebound (TVR) post-ATI, we modelled estimates for optimal sample size, frequency, and ATI duration required to detect a significant difference in the TVR between control and intervention groups. Groups were compared using a log-rank test, and analytical and stochastic techniques. RESULTS: In placebo-controlled TVR studies, 120 participants are required in each arm to detect 30% difference in frequency of viral reactivation at 80% power. There was little statistical advantage to measuring viral load more frequently than weekly, or interrupting ART beyond 5 weeks in a TVR study. CONCLUSIONS: Current TVR HIV cure studies are underpowered to detect statistically significant changes in frequency of viral reactivation. Alternate study designs can improve the statistical power of ATI trials.

The rapid development of multiple vaccines providing strong protection from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has been a major achievement. There is now compelling evidence for the role of neutralizing antibodies in protective immunity. T cells may play a role in resolution of primary SARS-CoV-2 infection, and there is a widely expressed view that T cell-mediated immunity also plays an important role in vaccine-mediated protection. Here we discuss the role of vaccine-induced T cells in two distinct stages of infection: firstly, in protection from acquisition of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection following exposure; secondly, if infection does occur, the potential for T cells to reduce the risk of developing severe COVID-19. We describe several lines of evidence that argue against a direct impact of vaccine-induced memory T cells in preventing symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, the contribution of T cell immunity in reducing the severity of infection, particularly in infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants, remains to be determined. A detailed understanding of the role of T cells in COVID-19 is critical for next-generation vaccine design and development. Here we discuss the challenges in determining a causal relationship between vaccine-induced T cell immunity and protection from COVID-19 and propose an approach to gather the necessary evidence to clarify any role for vaccine-induced T cell memory in protection from severe COVID-19.

The durability of infection-induced SARS-CoV-2 immunity has major implications for reinfection and vaccine development. Here, we show a comprehensive profile of antibody, B cell and T cell dynamics over time in a cohort of patients who have recovered from mild-moderate COVID-19. Binding and neutralising antibody responses, together with individual serum clonotypes, decay over the first 4 months post-infection. A similar decline in Spike-specific CD4+ and circulating T follicular helper frequencies occurs. By contrast, S-specific IgG+ memory B cells consistently accumulate over time, eventually comprising a substantial fraction of circulating the memory B cell pool. Modelling of the concomitant immune kinetics predicts maintenance of serological neutralising activity above a titre of 1:40 in 50% of convalescent participants to 74 days, although there is probably additive protection from B cell and T cell immunity. This study indicates that SARS-CoV-2 immunity after infection might be transiently protective at a population level. Therefore, SARS-CoV-2 vaccines might require greater immunogenicity and durability than natural infection to drive long-term protection.

Neutralizing antibodies are important for immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and as therapeutics for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. Here, we identified high-affinity nanobodies from alpacas immunized with coronavirus spike and receptor-binding domains (RBD) that disrupted RBD engagement with the human receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and potently neutralized SARS-CoV-2. Epitope mapping, X-ray crystallography, and cryo-electron microscopy revealed two distinct antigenic sites and showed two neutralizing nanobodies from different epitope classes bound simultaneously to the spike trimer. Nanobody-Fc fusions of the four most potent nanobodies blocked ACE2 engagement with RBD variants present in human populations and potently neutralized both wild-type SARS-CoV-2 and the N501Y D614G variant at concentrations as low as 0.1 nM. Prophylactic administration of either single nanobody-Fc or as mixtures reduced viral loads by up to 104-fold in mice infected with the N501Y D614G SARS-CoV-2 virus. These results suggest a role for nanobody-Fc fusions as prophylactic agents against SARS-CoV-2.

Potent neutralizing monoclonal antibodies are one of the few agents currently available to treat COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) that carry multiple mutations in the viral spike protein can exhibit neutralization resistance, potentially affecting the effectiveness of some antibody-based therapeutics. Here, the generation of a diverse panel of 91 human, neutralizing monoclonal antibodies provides an in-depth structural and phenotypic definition of receptor binding domain (RBD) antigenic sites on the viral spike. These RBD antibodies ameliorate SARS-CoV-2 infection in mice and hamster models in a dose-dependent manner and in proportion to in vitro, neutralizing potency. Assessing the effect of mutations in the spike protein on antibody recognition and neutralization highlights both potent single antibodies and stereotypic classes of antibodies that are unaffected by currently circulating VOCs, such as B.1.351 and P.1. These neutralizing monoclonal antibodies and others that bind analogous epitopes represent potentially useful future anti-SARS-CoV-2 therapeutics.

Immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is central to long-term control of the current pandemic. Despite our rapidly advancing knowledge of immune memory to SARS-CoV-2, understanding how these responses translate into protection against reinfection at both the individual and population levels remains a major challenge. An ideal outcome following infection or after vaccination would be a highly protective and durable immunity that allows for the establishment of high levels of population immunity. However, current studies suggest a decay of neutralizing antibody responses in convalescent patients, and documented cases of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection are increasing. Understanding the dynamics of memory responses to SARS-CoV-2 and the mechanisms of immune control are crucial for the rational design and deployment of vaccines and for understanding the possible future trajectories of the pandemic. Here, we summarize our current understanding of immune responses to and immune control of SARS-CoV-2 and the implications for prevention of reinfection.

The rapid scale-up of research on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spawned a large number of potential vaccines and immunotherapies, accompanied by a commensurately large number of in vitro assays and in vivo models to measure their effectiveness. These assays broadly have the same end-goal - to predict the clinical efficacy of prophylactic and therapeutic interventions in humans. However, the apparent potency of different interventions can vary considerably between assays and animal models, leading to very different predictions of clinical efficacy. Complete harmonization of experimental methods may be intractable at the current pace of research. However, here we analyse a selection of existing assays for measuring antibody-mediated virus neutralization and animal models of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and provide a framework for comparing results between studies and reconciling observed differences in the effects of interventions. Finally, we propose how we might optimize these assays for better comparison of results from in vitro and animal studies to accelerate progress.

Modern data and computational resources, coupled with algorithmic and theoretical advances to exploit these, allow disease dynamic models to be parameterised with increasing detail and accuracy. While this enhances models' usefulness in prediction and policy, major challenges remain. In particular, lack of identifiability of a model's parameters may limit the usefulness of the model. While lack of parameter identifiability may be resolved through incorporation into an inference procedure of prior knowledge, formulating such knowledge is often difficult. Furthermore, there are practical challenges associated with acquiring data of sufficient quantity and quality. Here, we discuss recent progress on these issues.

As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis - for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).

There is currently a need for proxy measures of the HIV rebound competent reservoir (RCR) that can predict viral rebound after combined antiretroviral treatment (cART) interruption. In this study, macaques infected with a barcoded SIVmac239 virus received cART beginning between 4-and 27-days post-infection, leading to the establishment of different levels of viral dissemination and persistence. Later treatment initiation led to higher SIV DNA levels maintained during treatment, which was significantly associated with an increased frequency of SIV reactivation and production of progeny capable of causing rebound viremia following treatment interruption. However, a 100-fold increase in SIV DNA in PBMCs was associated with only a 2-fold increase in the frequency of reactivation. These data suggest that the RCR can be established soon after infection, and that a large fraction of persistent viral DNA that accumulates after this time makes relatively little contribution to viral rebound.

Plasmodium parasites invade and multiply inside red blood cells (RBC). Through a cycle of maturation, asexual replication, rupture and release of multiple infective merozoites, parasitised RBC (pRBC) can reach very high numbers in vivo, a process that correlates with disease severity in humans and experimental animals. Thus, controlling pRBC numbers can prevent or ameliorate malaria. In endemic regions, circulating parasite-specific antibodies associate with immunity to high parasitemia. Although in vitro assays reveal that protective antibodies could control pRBC via multiple mechanisms, in vivo assessment of antibody function remains challenging. Here, we employed two mouse models of antibody-mediated immunity to malaria, P. yoelii 17XNL and P. chabaudi chabaudi AS infection, to study infection-induced, parasite-specific antibody function in vivo. By tracking a single generation of pRBC, we tested the hypothesis that parasite-specific antibodies accelerate pRBC clearance. Though strongly protective against homologous re-challenge, parasite-specific IgG did not alter the rate of pRBC clearance, even in the presence of ongoing, systemic inflammation. Instead, antibodies prevented parasites progressing from one generation of RBC to the next. In vivo depletion studies using clodronate liposomes or cobra venom factor, suggested that optimal antibody function required splenic macrophages and dendritic cells, but not complement C3/C5-mediated killing. Finally, parasite-specific IgG bound poorly to the surface of pRBC, yet strongly to structures likely exposed by the rupture of mature schizonts. Thus, in our models of humoral immunity to malaria, infection-induced antibodies did not accelerate pRBC clearance, and instead co-operated with splenic phagocytes to block subsequent generations of pRBC.

A variety of interventions to induce a functional cure of HIV are being explored, with the aim being to allow patients to cease antiretroviral therapy (ART) for prolonged periods of time or for life. These interventions share the goal of inducing ART-free remission from HIV pathogenesis and disease progression but achieve this in quite different ways, by reducing the size of the latent reservoir (for example, small-molecule stimulation of latently infected cells), reducing the number of target cells available for the virus (for example, gene therapy) or improving immune responses (for example, active or passive immunotherapy). Here, we consider a number of these alternative strategies for inducing post-treatment control of HIV and use mathematical modelling to predict the scale of the challenge inherent in these different approaches. For many approaches, over 99.9% efficacy will likely be required to induce durable ART-free remissions. The efficacy of individual approaches is currently far below what we predict will be necessary, and new technologies to achieve lifelong functional cure are needed.

Plasmodium parasites invade and multiply inside red blood cells (RBC). Through a cycle of maturation, asexual replication, rupture and release of multiple infective merozoites, parasitised RBC (pRBC) can reach very high numbers in vivo, a process that correlates with disease severity in humans and experimental animals. Thus, controlling pRBC numbers can prevent or ameliorate malaria. In endemic regions, circulating parasite-specific antibodies associate with immunity to high parasitemia. Although in vitro assays reveal that protective antibodies could control pRBC via multiple mechanisms, in vivo assessment of antibody function remains challenging. Here, we employed two mouse models of antibody-mediated immunity to malaria, P. yoelii 17XNL and P. chabaudi chabaudi AS infection, to study infection-induced, parasite-specific antibody function in vivo. By tracking a single generation of pRBC, we tested the hypothesis that parasite-specific antibodies accelerate pRBC clearance. Though strongly protective against homologous re-challenge, parasite-specific IgG did not alter the rate of pRBC clearance, even in the presence of ongoing, systemic inflammation. Instead, antibodies prevented parasites progressing from one generation of RBC to the next. In vivo depletion studies using clodronate liposomes or cobra venom factor, suggested that optimal antibody function required splenic macrophages and dendritic cells, but not complement C3/C5-mediated killing. Finally, parasite-specific IgG bound poorly to the surface of pRBC, yet strongly to structures likely exposed by the rupture of mature schizonts. Thus, in our models of humoral immunity to malaria, infection-induced antibodies did not accelerate pRBC clearance, and instead co-operated with splenic phagocytes to block subsequent generations of pRBC.

It is widely thought that generating broadly neutralizing anti-HIV antibodies (BnAbs) will protect humans against HIV, given promising data from in vitro experiments and in vivo macaque studies. The primary action of BnAbs is preventing cell-free virus from entering cells. Recent in vitro and macaque data suggest that BnAbs are less potent against cell-associated virus exposure. We speculate that BnAb-based suppression of HIV transmission, particularly if mediated by cell–cell transmission, may result in some exposed subjects carrying a form of latent (or ‘occult’) HIV infection. Such largely hidden HIV infections may subsequently reactivate when BnAb levels decline. This concept has implications for the achievement of long-term sterilizing immunity to HIV.

Antimalarial treatment currently relies on an artemisinin derivative and a longer-acting partner drug. With the emergence of resistance to the artemisinin derivatives and the potential pressure this exerts on the partner drugs, the impact of resistance to each drug on efficacy needs to be investigated. An in silico exploration of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and mefloquine-artesunate, two artemisinin-based combination therapies that are commonly used in Southeast Asia, was performed. The percentage of treatment failures was simulated from a within-host pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) model, assuming that parasites developed increasing levels of (i) artemisinin derivative resistance or (ii) concomitant resistance to both the artemisinin derivative and the partner drug. Because the exact nature of how resistant Plasmodium falciparum parasites respond to treatment is unknown, we examined the impact on treatment failure rates of artemisinin resistance that (i) reduced the maximal killing rate, (ii) increased the concentration of drug required for 50% killing, or (iii) shortened the window of parasite stages that were susceptible to artemisinin derivatives until the drugs had no effect on the ring stages. The loss of the ring-stage activity of the artemisinin derivative caused the greatest increase in the treatment failure rate, and this result held irrespective of whether partner drug resistance was assumed to be present or not. To capture the uncertainty regarding how artemisinin derivative and partner drug resistance affects the assumed concentration-killing effect relationship, a variety of changes to this relationship should be considered when using within-host PKPD models to simulate clinical outcomes to guide treatment strategies for resistant infections.

Malaria infection continues to be a major health problem worldwide and drug resistance in the major human parasite species, Plasmodium falciparum, is increasing in South East Asia. Control measures including novel drugs and vaccines are in development, and contributions to the rational design and optimal usage of these interventions are urgently needed. Infection involves the complex interaction of parasite dynamics, host immunity, and drug effects. The long life cycle (48 hours in the common human species) and synchronized replication cycle of the parasite population present significant challenges to modeling the dynamics of Plasmodium infection. Coupled with these, variation in immune recognition and drug action at different life cycle stages leads to further complexity. We review the development and progress of “within-host” models of Plasmodium infection, and how these have been applied to understanding and interpreting human infection and animal models of infection.

A major mechanism of host-mediated control of blood-stage Plasmodium infection is thought to be removal of parasitized red blood cells (pRBCs) from circulation by the spleen or phagocytic system. The rate of parasite removal is thought to be further increased by anti-malarial drug treatment, contributing to the effectiveness of drug therapy. It is difficult to directly compare pRBC removal rates in the presence and absence of treatment, since in the absence of treatment the removal rate of parasites is obscured by the extent of ongoing parasite proliferation. Here, we transfused a single generation of fluorescently-labelled Plasmodium berghei pRBCs into mice, and monitored both their disappearance from circulation, and their replication to produce the next generation of pRBCs. In conjunction with a new mathematical model, we directly estimated host removal of pRBCs during ongoing infection, and after drug treatment. In untreated mice, pRBCs were removed from circulation with a half-life of 15.1 h. Treatment with various doses of mefloquine/artesunate did not alter the pRBC removal rate, despite blocking parasite replication effectively. An exception was high dose artesunate, which doubled the rate of pRBC removal (half-life of 9.1 h). Phagocyte depletion using clodronate liposomes approximately halved the pRBC removal rate during untreated infection, indicating a role for phagocytes in clearance. We next assessed the importance of pRBC clearance for the decrease in the parasite multiplication rate after high dose artesunate treatment. High dose artesunate decreased parasite replication ∼46-fold compared with saline controls, with inhibition of replication contributing 23-fold of this, and increased pRBC clearance contributing only a further 2.0-fold. Thus, in our in vivo systems, drugs acted primarily by inhibiting parasite replication, with drug-induced increases in pRBC clearance making only minor contributions to overall drug effect.

It is widely thought that generating broadly neutralizing anti-HIV antibodies (BnAbs) will protect humans against HIV, given promising data from in vitro experiments and in vivo macaque studies. The primary action of BnAbs is preventing cell-free virus from entering cells. Recent in vitro and macaque data suggest that BnAbs are less potent against cell-associated virus exposure. We speculate that BnAb-based suppression of HIV transmission, particularly if mediated by cell–cell transmission, may result in some exposed subjects carrying a form of latent (or ‘occult’) HIV infection. Such largely hidden HIV infections may subsequently reactivate when BnAb levels decline. This concept has implications for the achievement of long-term sterilizing immunity to HIV.

Malaria infection continues to be a major health problem worldwide and drug resistance in the major human parasite species, Plasmodium falciparum, is increasing in South East Asia. Control measures including novel drugs and vaccines are in development, and contributions to the rational design and optimal usage of these interventions are urgently needed. Infection involves the complex interaction of parasite dynamics, host immunity, and drug effects. The long life cycle (48 hours in the common human species) and synchronized replication cycle of the parasite population present significant challenges to modeling the dynamics of Plasmodium infection. Coupled with these, variation in immune recognition and drug action at different life cycle stages leads to further complexity. We review the development and progress of "within-host" models of Plasmodium infection, and how these have been applied to understanding and interpreting human infection and animal models of infection.

Severe malaria and associated high parasite burdens occur more frequently in humans lacking robust adaptive immunity to Plasmodium falciparum. Nevertheless, the host may partly control blood-stage parasite numbers while adaptive immunity is gradually established. Parasite control has typically been attributed to enhanced removal of parasites by the host, although in vivo quantification of this phenomenon remains challenging. We used a unique in vivo approach to determine the fate of a single cohort of semisynchronous, Plasmodium berghei ANKA- or Plasmodium yoelii 17XNL-parasitized red blood cells (pRBCs) after transfusion into naive or acutely infected mice. As previously shown, acutely infected mice, with ongoing splenic and systemic inflammatory responses, controlled parasite population growth more effectively than naive controls. Surprisingly, however, this was not associated with accelerated removal of pRBCs from circulation. Instead, transfused pRBCs remained in circulation longer in acutely infected mice. Flow cytometric assessment and mathematical modeling of intraerythrocytic parasite development revealed an unexpected and substantial slowing of parasite maturation in acutely infected mice, extending the life cycle from 24 h to 40 h. Importantly, impaired parasite maturation was the major contributor to control of parasite growth in acutely infected mice. Moreover, by performing the same experiments in rag1−/− mice, which lack T and B cells and mount weak inflammatory responses, we revealed that impaired parasite maturation is largely dependent upon the host response to infection. Thus, impairment of parasite maturation represents a host-mediated, immune system-dependent mechanism for limiting parasite population growth during the early stages of an acute blood-stage Plasmodium infection.

Falciparum malaria is a major parasitic disease causing widespread morbidity and mortality globally. Artemisinin derivatives—the most effective and widely-used antimalarials that have helped reduce the burden of malaria by 60% in some areas over the past decade—have recently been found to induce growth retardation of blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum when applied at clinically relevant concentrations. To date, no model has been designed to quantify the growth retardation effect and to predict the influence of this property on in vivo parasite killing. Here we introduce a mechanistic model of parasite growth from the ring to trophozoite stage of the parasite's life cycle, and by modelling the level of staining with an RNA-binding dye, we demonstrate that the model is able to reproduce fluorescence distribution data from in vitro experiments using the laboratory 3D7 strain. We quantify the dependence of growth retardation on drug concentration and identify the concentration threshold above which growth retardation is evident. We estimate that the parasite life cycle is prolonged by up to 10 hours. We illustrate that even such a relatively short delay in growth may significantly influence in vivo parasite dynamics, demonstrating the importance of considering growth retardation in the design of optimal artemisinin-based dosing regimens.

A number of treatment strategies are currently being developed to promote antiretroviral therapy-free HIV cure or remission. While complete elimination of the HIV reservoir would prevent recurrence of infection, it is not clear how different remission lengths would affect viral rebound and transmission. In this work, we use a stochastic model to show that a treatment that achieves a 1-year average time to viral remission will still lead to nearly a quarter of subjects experiencing viral rebound within the first 3 months. Given quarterly viral testing intervals, this leads to an expected 39 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 22 to 69) heterosexual transmissions and up to 262 (95% UI, 107 to 534) homosexual transmissions per 1,000 treated subjects over a 10-year period. Thus, a balance between high initial treatment levels, risk of recrudescence, and risk of transmission should be considered when assessing the "useful" or optimal length of antiretroviral therapy-free HIV remission to be targeted. We also investigate the trade-off between increasing the average duration of remission versus the risk of treatment failure (viral recrudescence) and the need for retreatment. To minimize drug exposure, we found that the optimal target of antilatency interventions is a 1,700-fold reduction in the size of the reservoir, which leads to an average time to recrudescence of 30 years. Interestingly, this is a significantly lower level of reduction than that required for complete elimination of the viral reservoir. Additionally, we show that when shorter periods are targeted, there is a real probability of viral transmission occurring between tests for viral rebound.

Background: Interventions to interrupt transmission of malaria from humans to mosquitoes represent an appealing approach to assist malaria elimination. A limitation has been the lack of systems to test the efficacy of such interventions before proceeding to efficacy trials in the field. We have previously demonstrated the feasibility of induced blood stage malaria (IBSM) infection with Plasmodium vivax. In this study, we report further validation of the IBSM model, and its evaluation for assessment of transmission of P. vivax to Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes. Methods: Six healthy subjects (three cohorts, n = 2 per cohort) were infected with P. vivax by inoculation with parasitized erythrocytes. Parasite growth was monitored by quantitative PCR, and gametocytemia by quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) for the mRNA pvs25. Parasite multiplication rate (PMR) and size of inoculum were calculated by linear regression. Mosquito transmission studies were undertaken by direct and membrane feeding assays over 3 days prior to commencement of antimalarial treatment, and midguts of blood fed mosquitoes dissected and checked for presence of oocysts after 7–9 days. Results: The clinical course and parasitemia were consistent across cohorts, with all subjects developing mild to moderate symptoms of malaria. No serious adverse events were reported. Asymptomatic elevated liver function tests were detected in four of six subjects; these resolved without treatment. Direct feeding of mosquitoes was well tolerated. The estimated PMR was 9.9 fold per cycle. Low prevalence of mosquito infection was observed (1.8%; n = 32/1801) from both direct (4.5%; n = 20/411) and membrane (0.9%; n = 12/1360) feeds. Conclusion: The P. vivax IBSM model proved safe and reliable. The clinical course and PMR were reproducible when compared with the previous study using this model. The IBSM model presented in this report shows promise as a system to test transmission-blocking interventions. Furt

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1005000.][This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1005740.][This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1005679.].

Background. The emergence of drug-resistant malaria highlights the need for new agents. A desired characteristic of candidate antimalarials is rapid killing of parasites. This is typically measured by the rate of exponential clearance of parasitemia following treatment. However, this clearance rate excludes the highly variable lag phase, when the parasitemia level may increase, remain constant, or decrease. Understanding factors determining this lag phase is important for drug development. Methods. We assessed the kinetics of parasitemia in 112 volunteers infected with blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum and treated with 8 different antimalarials. The parasitemia level was measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. We analyzed the relationship between the timing of treatment in the parasite growth cycle, and whether the parasitemia level rose or fell in the first 12 or 24 hours after treatment. Results. The timing of treatment in the parasite life cycle predicted whether subjects experienced rises or falls in parasitemia level after treatment. Antimalarials were unable to prevent rises in the parasitemia level in the first 12 hours. However, in the first 24 hours after treatment, fast-acting but not slow-acting drugs reduced the parasitemia level independent of when treatment was administered. Conclusions. The highly variable lag phase depends on the speed of action of an antimalarial and when in the periodic growth cycle it is administered.

High rates of mutation and recombination help human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) to evade the immune system and develop resistance to antiretroviral therapy. Macrophages and T-cells are the natural target cells of HIV-1 infection. A consensus has not been reached as to whether HIV replication results in differential recombination between primary T-cells and macrophages. Here, we used HIV with silent mutation markers along with next generation sequencing to compare the mutation and the recombination rates of HIV directly in T lymphocytes and macrophages. We observed a more than four-fold higher recombination rate of HIV in macrophages compared to T-cells (p < 0.001) and demonstrated that this difference is not due to different reliance on C-X-C chemokine receptor type 4 (CXCR4) and C-C chemokine receptor type 5 (CCR5) co-receptors between T-cells and macrophages. We also found that the pattern of recombination across the HIV genome (hot and cold spots) remains constant between T-cells and macrophages despite a three-fold increase in the overall recombination rate. This indicates that the difference in rates is a general feature of HIV DNA synthesis during macrophage infection. In contrast to HIV recombination, we found that T-cells have a 30% higher mutation rate than macrophages (p < 0.001) and that the mutational profile is similar between these cell types. Unexpectedly, we found no association between mutation and recombination in macrophages, in contrast to T-cells. Our data highlights some of the fundamental difference of HIV recombination and mutation amongst these two major target cells of infection. Understanding these differences will provide invaluable insights toward HIV evolution and how the virus evades immune surveillance and anti-retroviral therapeutics.

Background: HIV recombination has been estimated in vitro using a variety of approaches, and shows a high rate of template switching per reverse transcription event. In-vivo studies of recombination generally measure the accumulation of recombinant strains over time, and thus do not directly estimate a comparable template switching rate. Method: To examine whether the estimated in-vitro template switching rate is representative of the rate that occurs during HIV infection in vivo, we adopted a novel approach, analysing single genome sequences from early founder viruses to study the in-vivo template switching rate in the env region of HIV. Results: We estimated the in-vivo per cycle template switching rate to be between 0.5 and 1.5/1000 nt, or approximately 5-14 recombination events over the length of the HIV genome. Conclusion: The in-vivo estimated template switching rate is close to the in-vitro estimated rate found in primary T lymphocytes but not macrophages, which is consistent with the majority of HIV infection occurring in T lymphocytes.

High rates of mutation and recombination help human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) to evade the immune system and develop resistance to antiretroviral therapy. Macrophages and T-cells are the natural target cells of HIV-1 infection. A consensus has not been reached as to whether HIV replication results in differential recombination between primary T-cells and macrophages. Here, we used HIV with silent mutation markers along with next generation sequencing to compare the mutation and the recombination rates of HIV directly in T lymphocytes and macrophages. We observed a more than four-fold higher recombination rate of HIV in macrophages compared to T-cells (p < 0.001) and demonstrated that this difference is not due to different reliance on C-X-C chemokine receptor type 4 (CXCR4) and C-C chemokine receptor type 5 (CCR5) co-receptors between T-cells and macrophages. We also found that the pattern of recombination across the HIV genome (hot and cold spots) remains constant between T-cells and macrophages despite a three-fold increase in the overall recombination rate. This indicates that the difference in rates is a general feature of HIV DNA synthesis during macrophage infection. In contrast to HIV recombination, we found that T-cells have a 30% higher mutation rate than macrophages (p < 0.001) and that the mutational profile is similar between these cell types. Unexpectedly, we found no association between mutation and recombination in macrophages, in contrast to T-cells. Our data highlights some of the fundamental difference of HIV recombination and mutation amongst these two major target cells of infection. Understanding these differences will provide invaluable insights toward HIV evolution and how the virus evades immune surveillance and anti-retroviral therapeutics.

BACKGROUND: Interventions to interrupt transmission of malaria from humans to mosquitoes represent an appealing approach to assist malaria elimination. A limitation has been the lack of systems to test the efficacy of such interventions before proceeding to efficacy trials in the field. We have previously demonstrated the feasibility of induced blood stage malaria (IBSM) infection with Plasmodium vivax. In this study, we report further validation of the IBSM model, and its evaluation for assessment of transmission of P. vivax to Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes. METHODS: Six healthy subjects (three cohorts, n = 2 per cohort) were infected with P. vivax by inoculation with parasitized erythrocytes. Parasite growth was monitored by quantitative PCR, and gametocytemia by quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) for the mRNA pvs25. Parasite multiplication rate (PMR) and size of inoculum were calculated by linear regression. Mosquito transmission studies were undertaken by direct and membrane feeding assays over 3 days prior to commencement of antimalarial treatment, and midguts of blood fed mosquitoes dissected and checked for presence of oocysts after 7-9 days. RESULTS: The clinical course and parasitemia were consistent across cohorts, with all subjects developing mild to moderate symptoms of malaria. No serious adverse events were reported. Asymptomatic elevated liver function tests were detected in four of six subjects; these resolved without treatment. Direct feeding of mosquitoes was well tolerated. The estimated PMR was 9.9 fold per cycle. Low prevalence of mosquito infection was observed (1.8%; n = 32/1801) from both direct (4.5%; n = 20/411) and membrane (0.9%; n = 12/1360) feeds. CONCLUSION: The P. vivax IBSM model proved safe and reliable. The clinical course and PMR were reproducible when compared with the previous study using this model. The IBSM model presented in this report shows promise as a system to test transmission-blocking interventions. Furt

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1005000.][This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1005740.][This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1005679.].

High rates of mutation and recombination help human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) to evade the immune system and develop resistance to antiretroviral therapy. Macrophages and T-cells are the natural target cells of HIV-1 infection. A consensus has not been reached as to whether HIV replication results in differential recombination between primary T-cells and macrophages. Here, we used HIV with silent mutation markers along with next generation sequencing to compare the mutation and the recombination rates of HIV directly in T lymphocytes and macrophages. We observed a more than four-fold higher recombination rate of HIV in macrophages compared to T-cells (p < 0.001) and demonstrated that this difference is not due to different reliance on C-X-C chemokine receptor type 4 (CXCR4) and C-C chemokine receptor type 5 (CCR5) co-receptors between T-cells and macrophages. We also found that the pattern of recombination across the HIV genome (hot and cold spots) remains constant between T-cells and macrophages despite a three-fold increase in the overall recombination rate. This indicates that the difference in rates is a general feature of HIV DNA synthesis during macrophage infection. In contrast to HIV recombination, we found that T-cells have a 30% higher mutation rate than macrophages (p < 0.001) and that the mutational profile is similar between these cell types. Unexpectedly, we found no association between mutation and recombination in macrophages, in contrast to T-cells. Our data highlights some of the fundamental difference of HIV recombination and mutation amongst these two major target cells of infection. Understanding these differences will provide invaluable insights toward HIV evolution and how the virus evades immune surveillance and anti-retroviral therapeutics.

Background: Massive, parallel sequencing is a potent tool for dissecting the regulation of biological processes by revealing the dynamics of the cellular RNA profile under different conditions. Similarly, massive, parallel sequencing can be used to reveal the complexity of viral quasispecies that are often found in the RNA virus infected host. However, the production of cDNA libraries for next-generation sequencing (NGS) necessitates the reverse transcription of RNA into cDNA and the amplification of the cDNA template using PCR, which may introduce artefact in the form of phantom nucleic acids species that can bias the composition and interpretation of original RNA profiles. Method: Using HIV as a model we have characterised the major sources of error during the conversion of viral RNA to cDNA, namely excess RNA template and the RNaseH activity of the polymerase enzyme, reverse transcriptase. In addition we have analysed the effect of PCR cycle on detection of recombinants and assessed the contribution of transfection of highly similar plasmid DNA to the formation of recombinant species during the production of our control viruses. Results: We have identified RNA template concentrations, RNaseH activity of reverse transcriptase, and PCR conditions as key parameters that must be carefully optimised to minimise chimeric artefacts. Conclusions: Using our optimised RT-PCR conditions, in combination with our modified PCR amplification procedure, we have developed a reliable technique for accurate determination of RNA species using NGS technology.

The best correlate of malaria severity in human Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) infection is the total parasite load. Pf-infected humans could control parasite loads by two mechanisms, either decreasing parasite multiplication, or increasing parasite clearance. However, few studies have directly measured these two mechanisms in vivo. Here, we have directly quantified host clearance of parasites during Plasmodium infection in mice. We transferred labelled red blood cells (RBCs) from Plasmodium infected donors into uninfected and infected recipients, and tracked the fate of donor parasites by frequent blood sampling. We then applied age-based mathematical models to characterise parasite clearance in the recipient mice. Our analyses revealed an increased clearance of parasites in infected animals, particularly parasites of a younger developmental stage. However, the major decrease in parasite multiplication in infected mice was not mediated by increased clearance alone, but was accompanied by a significant reduction in the susceptibility of RBCs to parasitisation.