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OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to use the opportunity provided by the European Scleroderma Observational Study to (1) identify and describe those patients with early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) with progressive skin thickness, and (2) derive prediction models for progression over 12 months, to inform future randomised controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: The modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) was recorded every 3 months in 326 patients. 'Progressors' were defined as those experiencing a 5-unit and 25% increase in mRSS score over 12 months (±3 months). Logistic models were fitted to predict progression and, using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, were compared on the basis of the area under curve (AUC), accuracy and positive predictive value (PPV). RESULTS: 66 patients (22.5%) progressed, 227 (77.5%) did not (33 could not have their status assessed due to insufficient data). Progressors had shorter disease duration (median 8.1 vs 12.6 months, P=0.001) and lower mRSS (median 19 vs 21 units, P=0.030) than non-progressors. Skin score was highest, and peaked earliest, in the anti-RNA polymerase III (Pol3+) subgroup (n=50). A first predictive model (including mRSS, duration of skin thickening and their interaction) had an accuracy of 60.9%, AUC of 0.666 and PPV of 33.8%. By adding a variable for Pol3 positivity, the model reached an accuracy of 71%, AUC of 0.711 and PPV of 41%. CONCLUSIONS: Two prediction models for progressive skin thickening were derived, for use both in clinical practice and for cohort enrichment in RCTs. These models will inform recruitment into the many clinical trials of dcSSc projected for the coming years. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02339441.

OBJECTIVES: The rarity of early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) makes randomised controlled trials very difficult. We aimed to use an observational approach to compare effectiveness of currently used treatment approaches. METHODS: This was a prospective, observational cohort study of early dcSSc (within three years of onset of skin thickening). Clinicians selected one of four protocols for each patient: methotrexate, mycophenolate mofetil (MMF), cyclophosphamide or 'no immunosuppressant'. Patients were assessed three-monthly for up to 24 months. The primary outcome was the change in modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS). Confounding by indication at baseline was accounted for using inverse probability of treatment (IPT) weights. As a secondary outcome, an IPT-weighted Cox model was used to test for differences in survival. RESULTS: Of 326 patients recruited from 50 centres, 65 were prescribed methotrexate, 118 MMF, 87 cyclophosphamide and 56 no immunosuppressant. 276 (84.7%) patients completed 12 and 234 (71.7%) 24 months follow-up (or reached last visit date). There were statistically significant reductions in mRSS at 12 months in all groups: -4.0 (-5.2 to -2.7) units for methotrexate, -4.1 (-5.3 to -2.9) for MMF, -3.3 (-4.9 to -1.7) for cyclophosphamide and -2.2 (-4.0 to -0.3) for no immunosuppressant (p value for between-group differences=0.346). There were no statistically significant differences in survival between protocols before (p=0.389) or after weighting (p=0.440), but survival was poorest in the no immunosuppressant group (84.0%) at 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: These findings may support using immunosuppressants for early dcSSc but suggest that overall benefit is modest over 12 months and that better treatments are needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02339441.

ObjectivesAbatacept is the only agent currently approved to treat rheumatoid arthritis (RA) that targets the co-stimulatory signal required for full T-cell activation. No studies have been conducted on its effect on the synovium, the primary site of pathology. The aim of this study was to determine the synovial effect of abatacept in patients with RA and an inadequate response to tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) blocking therapy.MethodsThis first mechanistic study incorporated both dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and arthroscopy-acquired synovial biopsies before and 16 weeks after therapy, providing tissue for immunohistochemistry and quantitative real-time PCR analyses.ResultsSixteen patients (13 women) were studied; all had previously failed TNFalpha-blocking therapy. Fifteen patients completed the study. Synovial biopsies showed a small reduction in cellular content, which was significant only for B cells. The quantitative PCR showed a reduction in expression for most inflammatory genes (Wald statistic of p<0.01 indicating a significant treatment effect), with particular reduction in IFNgamma of -52% (95% CI -73 to -15, p<0.05); this correlated well with MRI improvements. In addition, favourable changes in the osteoprotegerin and receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B levels were noted. DCE-MRI showed a reduction of 15-40% in MRI parameters.ConclusionThese results indicate that abatacept reduces the inflammatory status of the synovium without disrupting cellular homeostasis. The reductions in gene expression influence bone positively and suggest a basis for the recently demonstrated radiological improvements that have been seen with abatacept treatment in patients with RA.

ObjectivesAbatacept is the only agent currently approved to treat rheumatoid arthritis (RA) that targets the co-stimulatory signal required for full T-cell activation. No studies have been conducted on its effect on the synovium, the primary site of pathology. The aim of this study was to determine the synovial effect of abatacept in patients with RA and an inadequate response to tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) blocking therapy.MethodsThis first mechanistic study incorporated both dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and arthroscopy-acquired synovial biopsies before and 16 weeks after therapy, providing tissue for immunohistochemistry and quantitative real-time PCR analyses.ResultsSixteen patients (13 women) were studied; all had previously failed TNFalpha-blocking therapy. Fifteen patients completed the study. Synovial biopsies showed a small reduction in cellular content, which was significant only for B cells. The quantitative PCR showed a reduction in expression for most inflammatory genes (Wald statistic of p<0.01 indicating a significant treatment effect), with particular reduction in IFNgamma of -52% (95% CI -73 to -15, p<0.05); this correlated well with MRI improvements. In addition, favourable changes in the osteoprotegerin and receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B levels were noted. DCE-MRI showed a reduction of 15-40% in MRI parameters.ConclusionThese results indicate that abatacept reduces the inflammatory status of the synovium without disrupting cellular homeostasis. The reductions in gene expression influence bone positively and suggest a basis for the recently demonstrated radiological improvements that have been seen with abatacept treatment in patients with RA.

Our initiative aimed to produce recommendations on post-randomised controlled trial (RCT) trial extension studies (TES) reporting using European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) standard operating procedures in order to achieve more meaningful output and standardisation of reports.

Our initiative aimed to produce recommendations on post-randomised controlled trial (RCT) trial extension studies (TES) reporting using European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) standard operating procedures in order to achieve more meaningful output and standardisation of reports.