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This study describes and evaluates improvements to the MARS crop yield forecasting system (MCYFS) for winter soft wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Europe, based on the WOFOST crop simulation model, by introducing autumn sowing dates, realistic soil moisture initialization, adding vernalization requirements and photoperiodicity, and phenology calibration. Dataset of phenological observations complemented with regional cropping calendars across Europe is used. The calibration of thermal requirements for anthesis and maturity is done by pooling all available observations within European agro-environmental zones and minimizing an objective function that combines the differences between observed and simulated anthesis, maturity and harvest dates. Calibrated phenology results in substantial improvement in simulated dates of anthesis with respect to the original MCYFS simulations. The combined improvements to the system result in a physically more plausible spatial distribution of crop model indicators across Europe. Crop yield indicators point to better agreement with recorded national winter wheat yields with respect to the original MCYFS simulations, most pronounced in central, eastern and southern Europe. However, model skill remains low in large parts of western Europe, which may possibly be attributed to the impacts of wet conditions.

Global and regional scale agricultural monitoring systems aim to provide up-to-date information regarding food production to different actors and decision makers in support of global and national food security. To help reduce price volatility of the kind experienced between 2007 and 2011, a global system of agricultural monitoring systems is needed to ensure the coordinated flow of information in a timely manner for early warning purposes. A number of systems now exist that fill this role. This paper provides an overview of the eight main global and regional scale agricultural monitoring systems currently in operation and compares them based on the input data and models used, the outputs produced and other characteristics such as the role of the analyst, their interaction with other systems and the geographical scale at which they operate. Despite improvements in access to high resolution satellite imagery over the last decade and the use of numerous remote-sensing based products by the different systems, there are still fundamental gaps. Based on a questionnaire, discussions with the system experts and the literature, we present the main gaps in the data and in the methods. Finally, we propose some recommendations for addressing these gaps through ongoing improvements in remote sensing, harnessing new and innovative data streams and the continued sharing of more and more data.

Global and regional scale agricultural monitoring systems aim to provide up-to-date information regarding food production to different actors and decision makers in support of global and national food security. To help reduce price volatility of the kind experienced between 2007 and 2011, a global system of agricultural monitoring systems is needed to ensure the coordinated flow of information in a timely manner for early warning purposes. A number of systems now exist that fill this role. This paper provides an overview of the eight main global and regional scale agricultural monitoring systems currently in operation and compares them based on the input data and models used, the outputs produced and other characteristics such as the role of the analyst, their interaction with other systems and the geographical scale at which they operate. Despite improvements in access to high resolution satellite imagery over the last decade and the use of numerous remote-sensing based products by the different systems, there are still fundamental gaps. Based on a questionnaire, discussions with the system experts and the literature, we present the main gaps in the data and in the methods. Finally, we propose some recommendations for addressing these gaps through ongoing improvements in remote sensing, harnessing new and innovative data streams and the continued sharing of more and more data.

Global and regional scale agricultural monitoring systems aim to provide up-to-date information regarding food production to different actors and decision makers in support of global and national food security. To help reduce price volatility of the kind experienced between 2007 and 2011, a global system of agricultural monitoring systems is needed to ensure the coordinated flow of information in a timely manner for early warning purposes. A number of systems now exist that fill this role. This paper provides an overview of the eight main global and regional scale agricultural monitoring systems currently in operation and compares them based on the input data and models used, the outputs produced and other characteristics such as the role of the analyst, their interaction with other systems and the geographical scale at which they operate. Despite improvements in access to high resolution satellite imagery over the last decade and the use of numerous remote-sensing based products by the different systems, there are still fundamental gaps. Based on a questionnaire, discussions with the system experts and the literature, we present the main gaps in the data and in the methods. Finally, we propose some recommendations for addressing these gaps through ongoing improvements in remote sensing, harnessing new and innovative data streams and the continued sharing of more and more data.

Climate change impacts on potential and rainfed crop yields on the European continent were studied using output of three General Circulation Models and the Crop Growth Monitoring System in combination with weather generator. Climate change impacts differ per crop type and per CO2 emission scenario. Crops planted in autumn and winter (winter wheat) may benefit from the increasing CO2 concentration. Rainfall is sufficient and if the CO2 concentration increase is high, yields may increase up to 2090. If the CO2 increase is less, increasing temperatures result in declining or stagnating yields after 2050. Crops planted in spring (potato, sugar beet) initially benefit from the CO2 increase, however as time progresses the increasing temperatures reduce these positive effects. By the end of the century yield decline in southern Europe and production may only be possible if enough irrigation water is available. In northern Europe depending on the temperature and CO2 concentration increase, yields either stagnate or decline. However in some of the cooler regions yield increase is still possible. Crops planted in late spring and summer (maize) may suffer from droughts and high temperature in summer. By the end of the century, depending on the temperature rise, crop yields decline almost everywhere. If the temperature increase is less only in north western Europe yields remain stable.

Climate change impacts on potential and rainfed crop yields on the European continent were studied using output of three General Circulation Models and the Crop Growth Monitoring System in combination with weather generator. Climate change impacts differ per crop type and per CO2 emission scenario. Crops planted in autumn and winter (winter wheat) may benefit from the increasing CO2 concentration. Rainfall is sufficient and if the CO2 concentration increase is high, yields may increase up to 2090. If the CO2 increase is less, increasing temperatures result in declining or stagnating yields after 2050. Crops planted in spring (potato, sugar beet) initially benefit from the CO2 increase, however as time progresses the increasing temperatures reduce these positive effects. By the end of the century yield decline in southern Europe and production may only be possible if enough irrigation water is available. In northern Europe depending on the temperature and CO2 concentration increase, yields either stagnate or decline. However in some of the cooler regions yield increase is still possible. Crops planted in late spring and summer (maize) may suffer from droughts and high temperature in summer. By the end of the century, depending on the temperature rise, crop yields decline almost everywhere. If the temperature increase is less only in north western Europe yields remain stable.

Agrometeorological systems for regional crop yield forecasting have traditionally relied on weather data derived from weather stations for crop simulation and yield prediction. In recent years, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have become an interesting source of weather data with the potential to replace observed weather data. This is a result of the steadily decreasing NWP grid sizes and the availability of long and consistent time-series through the so-called reanalysis projects. We evaluated the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data set from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting for regional crop yield forecasting. Crop simulations were carried out using 2 identical model implementations: one using interpolated observed weather, the other using weather data derived from ERA-INTERIM. Output for both sources of weather variables was generated for the EU27 and neighbouring countries and 14 crops, aggregated to national level and validated using reported crop yields from the European Statistical Office. The results indicate that the system performs very similar in terms of crop yield forecasting skill for both sources of weather variables. In 38% of the crop–country combinations, the forecasting error can be reduced by more than 10% of the baseline forecast (the trend only) for both sources of weather variables. In almost 20% of the crop–country combinations, the forecasting error can be reduced by more than 25% of the baseline forecast. The results demonstrate that the ERA-INTERIM data set is highly suitable for regional crop yield forecasting over Europe and may be used for implementing regional crop forecasting over data-sparse regions. Finally, we conclude that there is a need to improve the crop calendar and/or calibration for some of the modelled crops

Het MCYFS wordt geïntroduceerd door de opdrachtgever van het MARSOP project, het Joint Research Centrum van de Europese Commissie. Met behulp van wetenschappelijk relevante, tijdige en onafhankelijke data die voortkomen uit dit systeem, kunnen gedurende het jaar tijdige besluiten worden genomen met betrekking tot de uitvoering van het Gemeenschappelijk Landbouw Beleid. In meer detail gaat het over het volgen van de vegetatiegroei, het berekenen van de effecten van meteorologische gebeurtenissen op gewasgroei en het voorspellen van de uiteindelijke oogst. Technisch gezien bestaat het systeem uit lage resolutie satelliet informatie, meteorologische waarnemingen, agro-meteorologische modellering (Crop Growth Monitoring System, CGMS) en statistische analyse tools, Based on the recognized need of DG Agriculture to have information on the condition of land and arable crops, notably for the management of the common organisations of the markets the MARS project has been running a crop yield forecasting system since 1993 for the quantitative assessment of the major European crops in all Member States. Since 2000, the expertise in crop yield estimation has been applied outside the EU. Services have been developed to support EU aid and assistance policies and to provide building blocks for a European capability for global agricultural monitoring and food security assessment