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To mitigate temporal aliasing effects in monthly mean global gravity fields from the GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite tandem missions, both tidal and non-tidal background models describing high-frequency mass variability in atmosphere and oceans are needed. To quantify tides in the atmosphere, we exploit the higher spatial (31 km) and temporal (1 hr) resolution provided by the latest atmospheric ECMWF reanalysis, ERA5. The oceanic response to atmospheric tides is subsequently modeled with the general ocean circulation model MPIOM (in a recently revised TP10L40 configuration that includes the feedback of self-attraction and loading to the momentum equations and has an improved bathymetry around Antarctica) as well as the shallow water model TiME (employing a much higher spatial resolution and more elaborate tidal dissipation than MPIOM). Both ocean models consider jointly the effects of atmospheric pressure variations and surface wind stress. We present the characteristics of 16 waves beating at frequencies in the 1-6 cpd band and find that TiME typically outperforms the corresponding results from MPIOM and also FES2014b as measured from comparisons with tide gauge data. Moreover, we note improvements in GRACE-FO laser ranging interferometer range-acceleration pre-fit residuals when employing the ocean tide solutions from TiME, in particular, for the S-1 spectral line with most notable improvements around Australia, India, and the northern part of South America.

To mitigate temporal aliasing effects in monthly mean global gravity fields from the GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite tandem missions, both tidal and non-tidal background models describing high-frequency mass variability in atmosphere and oceans are needed. To quantify tides in the atmosphere, we exploit the higher spatial (31 km) and temporal (1 hr) resolution provided by the latest atmospheric ECMWF reanalysis, ERA5. The oceanic response to atmospheric tides is subsequently modeled with the general ocean circulation model MPIOM (in a recently revised TP10L40 configuration that includes the feedback of self-attraction and loading to the momentum equations and has an improved bathymetry around Antarctica) as well as the shallow water model TiME (employing a much higher spatial resolution and more elaborate tidal dissipation than MPIOM). Both ocean models consider jointly the effects of atmospheric pressure variations and surface wind stress. We present the characteristics of 16 waves beating at frequencies in the 1-6 cpd band and find that TiME typically outperforms the corresponding results from MPIOM and also FES2014b as measured from comparisons with tide gauge data. Moreover, we note improvements in GRACE-FO laser ranging interferometer range-acceleration pre-fit residuals when employing the ocean tide solutions from TiME, in particular, for the S-1 spectral line with most notable improvements around Australia, India, and the northern part of South America.

Climate change and increased coastal urbanization are causing low-lying coastlines to become increasingly susceptible to the threat of extreme water levels and coastal flooding. Robust decision-making on adaptation in the coastal zone, based on reliable ocean-modelling tools, is therefore crucially contingent on accurate assessments of current and future storm surge hazards. This accuracy relies considerably on the quality of the wind forcing used in the ocean models. In this paper, we use a high-resolution, regional 3D ocean model (HBM) covering the North Sea and Baltic Sea to simulate extreme water levels during three extreme storm surge events with different dynamics and patterns, in order to assess their impacts along Denmark’s coastlines, which are of varying levels of complexity. We demonstrate that the model is able to reproduce the observed extreme high-water levels accurately, indicating that the system is well suited for producing simulations of present and future projections of extreme storm surges with high resulting impacts and damage potentials. Additionally, we quantify the level at which acknowledged deficiencies in the otherwise most suitable atmospheric forcing data set influence the results of the storm surge simulations. We found that reducing the temporal resolution of the forcing data – that is, replacing two out of every six time stamps with linearly interpolated values – is preferable to using the original forcing data set when recurring noise is present in these time stamps. As a result, for given storm surge events, and depending on the stage reached in the storm’s evolution, mean absolute errors can be reduced by 4.5 cm. This emphasizes the importance of considering such model fluctuations when coupling high-resolution atmosphere and ocean models.

The Mediterranean Sea, strategically situated across a dynamic frontier line that separates two regions with different climates (Europe and North Africa), has been the focus of attention of many studies dealing with its thermohaline circulation, deep water formation processes or heat and freshwater budgets. Large-scale atmospheric forcing has been found to play an important role in these topics and attention has been renewed in climatic indices that can be used as a proxy for atmospheric variability. Among them, the North Atlantic oscillation, the East Atlantic or the East Atlantic–West Russia patterns have been widely addressed but much less attention has been devoted to a Mediterranean mode, the Mediterranean oscillation. This overview summarizes the recent advances that have been achieved in the understanding of these climatic indices and their influence on the functioning of the Mediterranean from a physical point of view. The important role of the Mediterranean oscillation is emphasized and the most relevant aspects of the other indices are revisited and discussed.

The interior of western Canada, up to and including the Arctic, has experienced rapid change in its climate, hydrology, cryosphere, and ecosystems, and this is expected to continue. Although there is general consensus that warming will occur in the future, many critical issues remain. In this first of two articles, attention is placed on atmospheric-related issues that range from large scales down to individual precipitation events. Each of these is considered in terms of expected change organized by season and utilizing mainly “business-as-usual” climate scenario information. Large-scale atmospheric circulations affecting this region are projected to shift differently in each season, with conditions that are conducive to the development of hydroclimate extremes in the domain becoming substantially more intense and frequent after the mid-century. When coupled with warming temperatures, changes in the large-scale atmospheric drivers lead to enhancements of numerous water-related and temperature-related extremes. These include winter snowstorms, freezing rain, drought, forest fires, as well as atmospheric forcing of spring floods, although not necessarily summer convection. Collective insights of these atmospheric findings are summarized in a consistent, connected physical framework.

nterannual variability of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is intimately linked to ocean water mass changes. Water mass characteristics are imprinted at the ocean surface and are modulated by climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales. In this study, we investigate the water mass change and their variability using an isopycnal decomposition of the OHC. For that purpose, we address the thickness and temperature changes of these water masses using both individual temperature‐salinity profiles and optimal interpolated products from Argo data. Isopycnal decomposition allows us to characterize the water masses interannual variability and decadal trends of volume and OHC. During the last decade (2006–2015), much of interannual and decadal warming is associated with Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW), particularly in the South Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (SPESTMW), the Southeastern Indian Subantarctic Mode Water (SEISAMW) and the Southern Pacific SAMW (SPSAMW). In contrast, Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) in the Southern Hemisphere and North Atlantic STMW (NASTMW) in the Northern Hemisphere have cooled. This OHC interannual variability is mainly explained by volume (or mass) changes of water masses related to the isopycnal heaving. The forcing mechanisms and interior dynamics of water masses are discussed in the context of the wind stress change and ocean adjustment occurring at interannual time scale. Key points Upper global Ocean mode water are the hot spots of 2006‐2015 ocean heat trend Southern hemisphere mode water gained volume and buoyancy over 2006‐2015 Wind forcing and oceanic adjustment may partly explain the interannual mode water volume change

nterannual variability of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is intimately linked to ocean water mass changes. Water mass characteristics are imprinted at the ocean surface and are modulated by climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales. In this study, we investigate the water mass change and their variability using an isopycnal decomposition of the OHC. For that purpose, we address the thickness and temperature changes of these water masses using both individual temperature‐salinity profiles and optimal interpolated products from Argo data. Isopycnal decomposition allows us to characterize the water masses interannual variability and decadal trends of volume and OHC. During the last decade (2006–2015), much of interannual and decadal warming is associated with Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW), particularly in the South Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (SPESTMW), the Southeastern Indian Subantarctic Mode Water (SEISAMW) and the Southern Pacific SAMW (SPSAMW). In contrast, Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) in the Southern Hemisphere and North Atlantic STMW (NASTMW) in the Northern Hemisphere have cooled. This OHC interannual variability is mainly explained by volume (or mass) changes of water masses related to the isopycnal heaving. The forcing mechanisms and interior dynamics of water masses are discussed in the context of the wind stress change and ocean adjustment occurring at interannual time scale. Key points Upper global Ocean mode water are the hot spots of 2006‐2015 ocean heat trend Southern hemisphere mode water gained volume and buoyancy over 2006‐2015 Wind forcing and oceanic adjustment may partly explain the interannual mode water volume change

nterannual variability of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is intimately linked to ocean water mass changes. Water mass characteristics are imprinted at the ocean surface and are modulated by climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales. In this study, we investigate the water mass change and their variability using an isopycnal decomposition of the OHC. For that purpose, we address the thickness and temperature changes of these water masses using both individual temperature‐salinity profiles and optimal interpolated products from Argo data. Isopycnal decomposition allows us to characterize the water masses interannual variability and decadal trends of volume and OHC. During the last decade (2006–2015), much of interannual and decadal warming is associated with Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW), particularly in the South Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (SPESTMW), the Southeastern Indian Subantarctic Mode Water (SEISAMW) and the Southern Pacific SAMW (SPSAMW). In contrast, Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) in the Southern Hemisphere and North Atlantic STMW (NASTMW) in the Northern Hemisphere have cooled. This OHC interannual variability is mainly explained by volume (or mass) changes of water masses related to the isopycnal heaving. The forcing mechanisms and interior dynamics of water masses are discussed in the context of the wind stress change and ocean adjustment occurring at interannual time scale. Key points Upper global Ocean mode water are the hot spots of 2006‐2015 ocean heat trend Southern hemisphere mode water gained volume and buoyancy over 2006‐2015 Wind forcing and oceanic adjustment may partly explain the interannual mode water volume change

The loading of P into the Gulf of Finland has decreased markedly, but no overall trend in the concentration of P has been observed in the open Gulf, where the concentrations of both inorganic N and P still have a pronounced inter annual variability. Our main aim was to study whether the internal processes driven by atmospheric forcing can explain the variation in the nutrient conditions in the Gulf during the period 1992-2014. We observed that the long-term salinity variation of the bottom water in the northern Baltic Proper controls that in the Gulf, and that the deep-water concentrations of oxygen and nutrients are significantly correlated between the basins. This imposes preconditions regarding how atmospheric forcing may influence deep water flows and stratification in the Gulf on a long-term scale. We found that over short timescales, winter winds in particular can control the in- and outflows of water and the vertical stratification and mixing, which to a large extent explained the inter-annual variation in the DIN and TP pools in the Gulf. We conclude that the inter-annual variation in the amounts, ratios, and spatial distribution of nutrients sets variable preconditions for the spring and potential blue-green algae blooms, and that internal processes were able to mask the effects of the P load reductions implemented across the whole Gulf. The transportation of P along the bottom from the northern Baltic Proper and its evident uplift in the Gulf highlights the fact that the nutrient reductions are also needed in the entire catchment of the Baltic Sea to improve the trophic status of the open Gulf.

Although atmospheric reanalyses are an extremely valuable tool to study the climate of polar regions, they suffer from large uncertainties in these data-poor areas. In this work, we examine how Antarctic sea ice biases in an ocean-sea ice model are related to these forcing uncertainties. Three experiments are conducted in which the NEMOLIM model is driven by different atmospheric forcing sets. The minimum ice extent, the ice motion and the ice thickness are sensitive to the reanalysis chosen to drive the model, while the wintertime ice extent and inner pack concentrations are barely affected. The analysis of sea ice concentration budgets allows identifying the processes leading to differences between the experiments, and also indicates that large and similar errors compared to observations are present in all three cases. Our assessment of the influence of forcing inaccuracies on the simulated Antarctic sea ice allows disentangling two types of model biases: the ones that can be reduced thanks to better atmospheric forcings, and those that would require improvements of the physics of the ice or ocean model.

Although atmospheric reanalyses are an extremely valuable tool to study the climate of polar regions, they suffer from large uncertainties in these data-poor areas. In this work, we examine how Antarctic sea ice biases in an ocean-sea ice model are related to these forcing uncertainties. Three experiments are conducted in which the NEMOLIM model is driven by different atmospheric forcing sets. The minimum ice extent, the ice motion and the ice thickness are sensitive to the reanalysis chosen to drive the model, while the wintertime ice extent and inner pack concentrations are barely affected. The analysis of sea ice concentration budgets allows identifying the processes leading to differences between the experiments, and also indicates that large and similar errors compared to observations are present in all three cases. Our assessment of the influence of forcing inaccuracies on the simulated Antarctic sea ice allows disentangling two types of model biases: the ones that can be reduced thanks to better atmospheric forcings, and those that would require improvements of the physics of the ice or ocean model.

Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid-to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid-to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which incl

The Southern Ocean (SO) plays a key role in regulating climate by absorbing nearly half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO$_2$). Both physical and biogeochemical processes contribute to the net CO$_2$ sink. As a result of global warming and ozone depletion, westerly winds have increased, with consequences for upper ocean physics but little is known on how primary producers are expected to respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. This thesis addresses the impact of atmospheric forcing on upper ocean dynamics and phytoplankton bloom development in the SO on synoptic storm scales, combining a broad range of observations derived from satellites, reanalysis, profiling floats and Southern elephant seals.On atmospheric synoptic timescales (2-10 days), relevant for phytoplankton growth and accumulation, wind speed has a larger impact on satellite Chl-a variability than surface heat fluxes or wind stress curl. In summer, strong winds are linked to deep mixed layers, cold sea surface temperatures and enhanced satellite chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), which suggest wind-driven entrainment plays a role in sustaining phytoplankton blooms at the surface. Subsurface bio-optical data from floats and seals reveal deep Chl-a fluorescence maxima (DFM) are ubiquitous in summer and tend to sit at the base of the mixed layer, but can occur in all seasons. The fact that wind speed and Chl-a correlations are maximal at zero lag time (from daily data) and incubation experiments indicate phytoplankton growth occurs 3-4 days after iron addition, suggests high winds in summer entrain Chl-a from a subsurface maximum. Vertical profiles also reveal Chl-a fluorescence unevenness within hydrographically defined mixed layers, suggesting the biological timescales of adaptation through the light gradient (i.e. growth and/or photoacclimation) are often faster than mixing timescales, and periods of quiescence between storms are long enough for biological gradients to form within the homogeneous layer in densi

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016): 4392–4415, doi:10.1002/2016JC011634., A high-resolution (up to 2 km), unstructured-grid, fully coupled Arctic sea ice-ocean Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (AO-FVCOM) was employed to simulate the flow and transport through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) over the period 1978–2013. The model-simulated CAA outflow flux was in reasonable agreement with the flux estimated based on measurements across Davis Strait, Nares Strait, Lancaster Sound, and Jones Sounds. The model was capable of reproducing the observed interannual variability in Davis Strait and Lancaster Sound. The simulated CAA outflow transport was highly correlated with the along-strait and cross-strait sea surface height (SSH) difference. Compared with the wind forcing, the sea level pressure (SLP) played a dominant role in establishing the SSH difference and the correlation of the CAA outflow with the cross-strait SSH difference can be explained by a simple geostrophic balance. The change in the simulated CAA outflow transport through Davis Strait showed a negative correlation with the net flux through Fram Strait. This correlation was related to the variation of the spatial distribution and intensity of the slope current over the Beaufort Sea and Greenland shelves. The different basin-scale surface forcings can increase the model uncertainty in the CAA outflow flux up to 15%. The daily adjustment of the model elevation to the satellite-derived SSH in the North Atlantic region outside Fram Strait could produce a larger North Atlantic inflow through west Svalbard and weaken the outflow from the Arctic Ocean through east Greenland., NSF Grant Numbers: OCE-1203393, PLR-1203643; National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant Number: 41276197; Shanghai Pujiang Program Grant Number: 12PJ1404100; Shanghai Shuguang Program, 2016-12-25

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016): 4392–4415, doi:10.1002/2016JC011634., A high-resolution (up to 2 km), unstructured-grid, fully coupled Arctic sea ice-ocean Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (AO-FVCOM) was employed to simulate the flow and transport through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) over the period 1978–2013. The model-simulated CAA outflow flux was in reasonable agreement with the flux estimated based on measurements across Davis Strait, Nares Strait, Lancaster Sound, and Jones Sounds. The model was capable of reproducing the observed interannual variability in Davis Strait and Lancaster Sound. The simulated CAA outflow transport was highly correlated with the along-strait and cross-strait sea surface height (SSH) difference. Compared with the wind forcing, the sea level pressure (SLP) played a dominant role in establishing the SSH difference and the correlation of the CAA outflow with the cross-strait SSH difference can be explained by a simple geostrophic balance. The change in the simulated CAA outflow transport through Davis Strait showed a negative correlation with the net flux through Fram Strait. This correlation was related to the variation of the spatial distribution and intensity of the slope current over the Beaufort Sea and Greenland shelves. The different basin-scale surface forcings can increase the model uncertainty in the CAA outflow flux up to 15%. The daily adjustment of the model elevation to the satellite-derived SSH in the North Atlantic region outside Fram Strait could produce a larger North Atlantic inflow through west Svalbard and weaken the outflow from the Arctic Ocean through east Greenland., NSF Grant Numbers: OCE-1203393, PLR-1203643; National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant Number: 41276197; Shanghai Pujiang Program Grant Number: 12PJ1404100; Shanghai Shuguang Program, 2016-12-25

The Southern Ocean (SO) plays a key role in regulating climate by absorbing nearly half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO$_2$). Both physical and biogeochemical processes contribute to the net CO$_2$ sink. As a result of global warming and ozone depletion, westerly winds have increased, with consequences for upper ocean physics but little is known on how primary producers are expected to respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. This thesis addresses the impact of atmospheric forcing on upper ocean dynamics and phytoplankton bloom development in the SO on synoptic storm scales, combining a broad range of observations derived from satellites, reanalysis, profiling floats and Southern elephant seals.On atmospheric synoptic timescales (2-10 days), relevant for phytoplankton growth and accumulation, wind speed has a larger impact on satellite Chl-a variability than surface heat fluxes or wind stress curl. In summer, strong winds are linked to deep mixed layers, cold sea surface temperatures and enhanced satellite chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), which suggest wind-driven entrainment plays a role in sustaining phytoplankton blooms at the surface. Subsurface bio-optical data from floats and seals reveal deep Chl-a fluorescence maxima (DFM) are ubiquitous in summer and tend to sit at the base of the mixed layer, but can occur in all seasons. The fact that wind speed and Chl-a correlations are maximal at zero lag time (from daily data) and incubation experiments indicate phytoplankton growth occurs 3-4 days after iron addition, suggests high winds in summer entrain Chl-a from a subsurface maximum. Vertical profiles also reveal Chl-a fluorescence unevenness within hydrographically defined mixed layers, suggesting the biological timescales of adaptation through the light gradient (i.e. growth and/or photoacclimation) are often faster than mixing timescales, and periods of quiescence between storms are long enough for biological gradients to form within the homogeneous layer in densi

Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid-to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid-to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which incl

Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid-to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid-to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which incl

Despite being the largest High Nitrate Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) region, the Southern Ocean sustains phytoplankton blooms through the summer, when presumably there is sufficient light, but nutrients in the euphotic zone have been depleted. Physical processes that can potentially supply nutrients from subsurface waters to the euphotic zone, and promote phytoplankton growth in the summer, have not been fully explored at the large scale. By means of a correlation analysis, this study combines high-resolution satellite observations of ocean color, winds and sea surface temperature, surface heat fluxes from reanalysis and Argo mixed-layer depth (MLD) estimates to explore the role of the atmospheric forcing (i.e., winds and surface heat fluxes) on upper ocean processes that may help sustain high satellite chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) through the summer. Two physical processes that can supply nutrients to the euphotic zone are: MLD deepening, caused by wind-mixing and/or surface cooling, and Ekman pumping driven by the wind stress curl. We find that high winds correlate with high Chl-a over broad open ocean areas, suggesting that transient MLD deepening through wind-mixing (i.e., wind-driven entrainment) helps sustain high Chl-a. Wind-driven entrainment plays a dominant role on time scales associated with atmospheric synoptic storms (i.e., <10 days) and has a larger influence on surface Chl-a than storm scale local Ekman pumping. Based on our analysis of statistically significant correlation patterns, we identify regions in the Southern Ocean where wind-induced entrainment may play a role in sustaining summer phytoplankton blooms.

Despite being the largest High Nitrate Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) region, the Southern Ocean sustains phytoplankton blooms through the summer, when presumably there is sufficient light, but nutrients in the euphotic zone have been depleted. Physical processes that can potentially supply nutrients from subsurface waters to the euphotic zone, and promote phytoplankton growth in the summer, have not been fully explored at the large scale. By means of a correlation analysis, this study combines high-resolution satellite observations of ocean color, winds and sea surface temperature, surface heat fluxes from reanalysis and Argo mixed-layer depth (MLD) estimates to explore the role of the atmospheric forcing (i.e., winds and surface heat fluxes) on upper ocean processes that may help sustain high satellite chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) through the summer. Two physical processes that can supply nutrients to the euphotic zone are: MLD deepening, caused by wind-mixing and/or surface cooling, and Ekman pumping driven by the wind stress curl. We find that high winds correlate with high Chl-a over broad open ocean areas, suggesting that transient MLD deepening through wind-mixing (i.e., wind-driven entrainment) helps sustain high Chl-a. Wind-driven entrainment plays a dominant role on time scales associated with atmospheric synoptic storms (i.e., <10 days) and has a larger influence on surface Chl-a than storm scale local Ekman pumping. Based on our analysis of statistically significant correlation patterns, we identify regions in the Southern Ocean where wind-induced entrainment may play a role in sustaining summer phytoplankton blooms.

The ocean is a complex, constantly changing, highly dynamical system. Prediction capabilities are constantly being improved in order to better understand and forecast ocean properties for applications in science, industry, and maritime interests. Our overarching goal is to better predict the ocean environment in regions of complex topography with a continental shelf, shelfbreak, canyons and steep slopes using the MIT Multidisciplinary Simulation, Estimation and Assimilation Systems (MSEAS) primitive-equation ocean model. We did this by focusing on the complex region surrounding Taiwan, and the period of time immediately following the passage of Typhoon Morakot. This area and period were studied extensively as part of the intense observation period during August - September 2009 of the joint U.S. - Taiwan program Quantifying, Predicting, and Exploiting Uncertainty Department Research Initiative (QPE DRI). Typhoon Morakot brought an unprecedented amount of rainfall within a very short time period and in this research, we model and study the effects of this rainfall on Taiwan?s coastal oceans as a result of river discharge. We do this through the use of a river discharge model and a bulk river-ocean mixing model. We complete a sensitivity study of the primitive-equation ocean model simulations to the different parameters of these models. By varying the shape, size, and depth of the bulk mixing model footprint, and examining the resulting impacts on ocean salinity forecasts, we are able to determine an optimal combination of salinity relaxation factors for highest accuracy., Prepared in collaboration with the MIT-WHOI Joint Program in Oceanography.

Simulation characteristics from eighteen global ocean–sea-ice coupled models are presented with a focus on the mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and other related fields in the North Atlantic. These experiments use inter-annually varying atmospheric forcing data sets for the 60-year period from 1948 to 2007 and are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The protocol for conducting such CORE-II experiments is summarized. Despite using the same atmospheric forcing, the solutions show significant differences. As most models also differ from available observations, biases in the Labrador Sea region in upper-ocean potential temperature and salinity distributions, mixed layer depths, and sea-ice cover are identified as contributors to differences in AMOC. These differences in the solutions do not suggest an obvious grouping of the models based on their ocean model lineage, their vertical coordinate representations, or surface salinity restoring strengths. Thus, the solution differences among the models are attributed primarily to use of different subgrid scale parameterizations and parameter choices as well as to differences in vertical and horizontal grid resolutions in the ocean models. Use of a wide variety of sea-ice models with diverse snow and sea-ice albedo treatments also contributes to these differences. Based on the diagnostics considered, the majority of the models appear suitable for use in studies involving the North Atlantic, but some models require dedicated development effort.

Simulation characteristics from eighteen global ocean–sea-ice coupled models are presented with a focus on the mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and other related fields in the North Atlantic. These experiments use inter-annually varying atmospheric forcing data sets for the 60-year period from 1948 to 2007 and are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The protocol for conducting such CORE-II experiments is summarized. Despite using the same atmospheric forcing, the solutions show significant differences. As most models also differ from available observations, biases in the Labrador Sea region in upper-ocean potential temperature and salinity distributions, mixed layer depths, and sea-ice cover are identified as contributors to differences in AMOC. These differences in the solutions do not suggest an obvious grouping of the models based on their ocean model lineage, their vertical coordinate representations, or surface salinity restoring strengths. Thus, the solution differences among the models are attributed primarily to use of different subgrid scale parameterizations and parameter choices as well as to differences in vertical and horizontal grid resolutions in the ocean models. Use of a wide variety of sea-ice models with diverse snow and sea-ice albedo treatments also contributes to these differences. Based on the diagnostics considered, the majority of the models appear suitable for use in studies involving the North Atlantic, but some models require dedicated development effort.

Simulation characteristics from eighteen global ocean–sea-ice coupled models are presented with a focus on the mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and other related fields in the North Atlantic. These experiments use inter-annually varying atmospheric forcing data sets for the 60-year period from 1948 to 2007 and are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The protocol for conducting such CORE-II experiments is summarized. Despite using the same atmospheric forcing, the solutions show significant differences. As most models also differ from available observations, biases in the Labrador Sea region in upper-ocean potential temperature and salinity distributions, mixed layer depths, and sea-ice cover are identified as contributors to differences in AMOC. These differences in the solutions do not suggest an obvious grouping of the models based on their ocean model lineage, their vertical coordinate representations, or surface salinity restoring strengths. Thus, the solution differences among the models are attributed primarily to use of different subgrid scale parameterizations and parameter choices as well as to differences in vertical and horizontal grid resolutions in the ocean models. Use of a wide variety of sea-ice models with diverse snow and sea-ice albedo treatments also contributes to these differences. Based on the diagnostics considered, the majority of the models appear suitable for use in studies involving the North Atlantic, but some models require dedicated development effort.

Inter-annual variability of calculated barotropic (netflow) and simulated baroclinic (inflow and outflow) exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar is analyzed and their response to the main modes of atmospheric variability is investigated. Time series of the outflow obtained by high resolution simulations and estimated from in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements are compared. The time coefficients (TC) of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes that describe zonal atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of the Strait (1st and 3rd of Sea-Level Pressure (SLP) and 1st of the wind) show significant covariance with the inflow and outflow. Based on these analyses, a regression model between these SLP TCs and outflow of the Mediterranean Water was developed. This regression outflow time series was compared with estimates based on current meter observations and the predictability and reconstruction of past exchange variability based on atmospheric pressure fields are discussed. The simple regression model seems to reproduce the outflow evolution fairly reasonably, with the exception of the year 2008, which is apparently anomalous without available physical explanation yet.The exchange time series show a reduced inter-annual variability (less than 1%, 2.6% and 3.1% of total 2-day variability, for netflow, inflow and outflow, respectively). From a statistical point of view no clear long-term tendencies were revealed. Anomalously high baroclinic fluxes are reported for the years of 2000-2001 that are coincident with strong impact on the Alboran Sea ecosystem. The origin of the anomalous flow is associated with a strong negative anomaly (~ - 9 hPa) in atmospheric pressure fields settled north of Iberian Peninsula and extending over the central Atlantic, favoring an increased zonal circulation in winter 2000/2001. These low pressure fields forced intense and durable westerly winds in the Gulf of Cadiz-Alboran system. The signal of th

The long-term goal is an efficient global atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled modeling system which utilizes the best, current knowledge of physics, particularly for fluxes at the sea surface. The specific objectives are to implement and test the following: 1. Wave forcing from WAVEWATCH III in HYCOM. 2. NAVGEM- WAVEWATCH III -HYCOM coupling. 3. Global tri-pole grid in WAVEWATCH III.

Perennial Arctic ice extent, which corresponds to the sea ice that remains during the summer minimum, has decreased over the years 1979 2007 by more than 10% per decade (Comiso et al., 2008). The decline has been faster over recent years, leading to very low ice concentration in the summers of 2007 and 2008 (Goosse et al. 2009) with the lowest observed sea ice extent in the satellite record (1979-present) occurring in September 2012 (Perovich et al. 2012). Further reduction in perennial ice extent will likely lead to the inception of new shipping lanes through the Arctic bringing both opportunities for commerce and the need for heightened defense scrutiny. Prediction of future Arctic sea ice conditions, on both short and longer-term time scales are dependent on the capability of the component models in integrated Arctic and global models. The long-term goal of this project, therefore, is to improve the performance of the sea-ice model used in the Navy's coupled ocean and sea-ice prediction systems. These models consist of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) CICE model. The objectives of the project are to optimize the depiction of ice processes in existing Navy Research Laboratory (NRL) configurations of coupled HYCOM/CICE using sensitivity testing, and together with NRL implement and test new versions of CICE in these coupled model set-ups as they become available from the LANL developers.

The Long-Term Goals are: 1. Representing surface fluxes and ocean waves in coupled models in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. 2. Understand the physics of heat and mass transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere. 3. Improve forecasting of waves on the open ocean and in the marginal ice zone., Prepared in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, and the University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), Boulder, CO.

My long-term research goals are: (1) The characterization, understanding, and prediction of the statistics (mean, variance and coherence) of low-frequency acoustic signals and ambient noise in the littoral zone. The signal statistics are primarily influenced by the ocean variability and bottom properties. The noise statistics are influenced by atmospheric forcing and shipping in addition to the ocean and bottom variability. (2) The development and improvement of inverse techniques for measuring the dynamics and kinematics of meso and finer-scale sound speed structure and ocean currents in coastal regions. (3) The understanding of three-dimensional sound propagation physics including horizontal refraction and azimuthal coupling and the quantification of the importance of these complex physics in the prediction of sound signals transmitted over highly variable littoral regions.

Presented at the Layered Ocean Model Workshop held in Ann Arbor, Michigan on 21-23 May 2013. Prepared in cooperation with QinetiQ North America, Arlington, VA.

Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6-18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14-31% higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6-18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14-31% higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

This study contributes to long-term efforts toward understanding: upper ocean response to atmospheric forcing and submesoscale dynamics of the mixed and transition layer. This program also follows the team s long-term focus on developing new approaches for exploiting autonomous technologies for conducting process-level measurements. Objectives are to: A) Characterize the upper ocean response to typhoon forcing, in particular the temporal and spatial evolution of the cold wake generated by a typhoon and B) Demonstrate the utility of a new glider-borne microstructure sensor package for collecting high-quality turbulence measurements over the course of long-duration (weeks to months) deployments. The Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) program brought together an international team of oceanographers and atmospheric scientists to conduct a highly collaborative investigation of the oceanic response to typhoon forcing. Novel aspects of this program included the availability of C130 aircraft capable of air-dropping autonomous assets directly in front of propagating typhoons and extended access to a global-class research vessel, R/V Roger Revelle, stationed in Kaoshiung and capable of carrying autonomous assets and rapid survey capability into the typhoon s cold wake, shortly after the storm s passage. This permitted direct measurement of both the immediate response to the typhoon s passage and the longer timescale evolution of the resulting cold wake. This project focused on understanding cold wake evolution using a fleet of ten long-endurance autonomous Seagliders (three of which were equipped with temperature microstructure sensors) and ship-based surveys employing a rapid-profiling underway CTD.

This study contributes to our long-term efforts toward understanding: Mixed layer dynamics and Processes that communicate atmospheric forcing to the ocean interior. This ongoing collaborative effort is measuring and modeling the response of the upper ocean to strong typhoons both in simple, open ocean conditions and in the more complex conditions caused by ocean eddies and preconditioning by prior storms. The measurement and modeling activities include a focus on the impact of surface waves, air-sea fluxes and the temperature, salinity and velocity structure of the upper ocean. The goals of this effort are to understand key upper ocean processes, test upper ocean models, develop and test new parameterizations of upper ocean physics used and study the feedback from the ocean to typhoon intensity. The approach of the modeling component is to use field observations to force Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and upper ocean turbulence models in equivalent numerical cases and to use model-data comparison to test the theoretical basis of mixed layer turbulence scalings and parameterizations. The strategy is to test our physical theories and parameterizations of mixed layer dynamics against data by incorporating them realistically in turbulence-resolving LES models with embedded virtual measurements. Verification of the underlying theories can then be achieved through direct model-data comparison, using observations of ocean waves and turbulence under a wide range of oceanic conditions, and leading to improved parameterizations of upper ocean turbulence. The strong and isolated wind forcing in tropical cyclones provides an ideal environment for testing theories and parameterizations of the role of surface waves in the ocean mixed layer. This follows similar work in CBLAST exploiting the comprehensive view of boundary layer turbulence made possible by the combination of Lagrangian float and EM-APEX measurements.

The decreasing trend in minimum sea-ice extent in the Arctic Ocean has been a topic of concern with far reaching effects. There is good reason to believe that the Arctic Ocean will become a more active ocean, with larger surface waves and more intense internal wave activity (Rainville et al., 2011). Particularly in the marginal zone, the processes controlling the response of the ocean to wind forcing span a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this project, we use a combination of several existing instruments, satellite products, simple models, and emerging new technology to study the internal wave field in the Arctic Ocean, and the feedback processes between internal wave energy and stratification.

A Devonian magnetic susceptibility (MS) record obtained on limestones ranging from the Uppermost-Eifelian to the Lower-Givetian and located on the southern border of the Dinant Synclinorium in Belgium was selected for time-series analysis. In these carbonate ramp and platform deposits, spectral analyses highlight persistent, high-frequency cycles in both the MS-signal and the microfacies curve, reflecting environmental and climate changes. These metre-scale variations in the MS-signal are interpreted as changes in the flux of magnetic minerals towards the marine system, most likely controlled by monsoon rainfall-intensity. By combining chrono- and biostratigraphic information with theoretical knowledge of sedimentation rates in different depositional environments, these cycles are interpreted as astronomically driven and dominated by precession. It is hypothesized that during precession minima (longitude of the perihelion ≈270deg;) the trans-equatorial pressure gradient reaches a maximum and intensifies the northeasterly monsoonal circulation. The consequent increase in moisture transport towards the continent leads to enhanced precipitation and runoff, which, in turn, induces a higher flux of detrital material - including magnetic minerals responsible for the MS-signal - towards the marine system. Moreover, this unique high-resolution climate signal reveals half-precessional cycles. These cycles suggest that during precession maxima (longitude of the perihelion ≈90deg;) southeasterly monsoonal circulation strengthened due to an increased inter-hemispheric pressure gradient.

The two and three-dimensional response of strong ocean currents to atmospheric forcing is studied using numerical simulations. In particular, surface cooling is explored as a possible mechanism for explaining an observed 100 km southward shift in the mean position of the Gulf Stream during winter. The magnitude and direction of the cross-stream circulation is highly dependent on whether or not a vertical mixing of momentum occurs when the water column convectively adjusts in response to the surface cooling. A weak cross-stream flow toward the higher sea-surface temperatures occurs in the surface layer if momentum mixing does not occur, whereas a stronger flow toward lower sea-surface temperatures results if momentum mixing does take place. The response of three-dimensional simulations is very similar to the two-dimensional simulations in the immediate vicinity of the front. The response due to horizontal cooling gradients is not large enough to displace the Gulf Stream appreciably southward in any of the numerical simulations. By contrast, a moderate increase in the zonal wind stress is more effective in displacing the core of the current system than are strong gradients in the surface cooling. The position of the Gulf Stream has also been observed to change as it encounters changes in the bottom topography. The simulated adjustment of flow to a 200 m seamount is consistent with the conservation of potential vorticity. The inclusion of surface forcing does not affect the adjustment to the topography in any of the simulations, and does not steer the flow toward (away from) the topography so that the characteristics of the downstream flow are changed., http://archive.org/details/numericalsimulat1094521470, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Two bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profilers and a vertical string of temperature, conductivity, and pressure sensors were deployed at each end of the Bosphorus Strait in September 2008 and remained in place for over 5 months. These observations showed a two-layer structure of the exchange flow in the Bosphorus Strait with brackish waters originating in the Black Sea moving southward and more saline, denser waters from the Sea of Marmara flowing northward. Considerable differences in mean flow, current fluctuations, and layer thickness were also found. In the northern Bosphorus, the current variations were more pronounced in the lower layer than in the upper layer. The opposite situation was observed in the southern Bosphorus where the upper layer currents fluctuated more noticeably. The near-surface currents often exceeded 200 cm/s in the southern section and were generally below 30 cm/s in the northern section. Currents usually below 70 cm/s were observed in the lower layer in the southern part of the strait, while the lower layer outflow to the Black Sea in the northern part of the strait frequently reached 100 cm/s, with flow concentrated in a strong midlayer maximum core. The upper layer thickness displayed temporal variability and, on average, was about 39 m near its northern end and about 14 m near its southern end. Flow variability was found to be closely associated with variability of the bottom pressure difference and the atmospheric forcing on the synoptic time scale (2-10 days)., Published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, v116, C08038, 2011.

A fine resolution (~3.3 km) version of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is developed for the Caspian Sea. The model consists of a hybrid n-z coordinate system, with o-coordinates for the upper layers and z-levels below a user-specified depth and in very shallow water. General features of the Caspian Sea HYCOM are presented including the bottom topography, initialization and atmospheric forcing along with river discharge. The climatologically forced model simulation reveals that there is net heat loss (gain) during winter (summer), and that rivers can have significant influence on the freshwater fluxes, especially on the northwestern shelf. There is a strong seasonal cycle in the net surface heat fluxes. The freshwater fluxes are found to be locally dominated by river discharge. In particular, the Volga River, which has very high discharge rate during the summer months, is found to play an important role in driving the seasonal cycle of freshwater fluxes in the North Caspian Sea. Over the basin, the buoyancy fluxes calculated from net heat and freshwater fluxes indicate that buoyancy is much more sensitive to variations in heating than precipitation-evaporation since thermal buoyancy fluxes are much greater than the haline buoyancy fluxes. A set of model simulations further investigates the impact of evaporation, precipitation and river flow on the upper ocean quantities. It is demonstrated that the discharge rate from the Volga River controls the monthly variations in surface salinity fields in the North Caspian Sea., Published in Continental Shelf Research, v30 p1211-1225, 2010.

The performance of an atmospherically forced ocean general circulation model (OGCM) in simulating daily and monthly sea surface temperature (SST) is examined during the historical El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events during the time period 1993 -2003. For this purpose, we use the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) configured for the North Pacific north of 20 degrees S at a resolution of =9 km. There is no assimilation of (or relaxation to) SST data and no date-specific assimilation of any data type. The ability of the model in simulating temporal variations of SST anomalies is discussed by comparing model results with two satellite-based SST products. The HYCOM simulation gives a basin-averaged monthly mean bias of 0.3 degrees C and rms difference of 0.6 degrees C over the North Pacific Ocean during 1993 -2003. While the model is able to simulate SST anomalies with mean biases <0.5 degrees C in comparison to observations during most of the ENSO events, limitations in the accuracy of atmospheric forcing (specifically, net short-wave radiation) have some influence on the accuracy of simulations. This is specifically demonstrated during the 1998 transition period from El Nino to La Nina, when a record large SST drop of =7 degrees C occurred in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean., Published in the Journal Tellus v62A p48-61, 2010. The original document contains color images. All DTIC reproductions will be in black and white.

While perhaps the most obvious, ice retreat is just one aspect of a changing Arctic system. The Arctic Ocean is also undergoing unprecedented modifications, that mostly affect its heat and freshwater budgets. As the signal of Arctic change is expected to have its major climatic impact by reaching south the subarctic seas, on either side of Greenland, to modulate the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, the objective of this thesis is to investigate the variability of the exports of volume, heat, freshwater and sea-ice from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic. First, a realistic simulation from 1958 to 2002 run with a global ocean/sea-ice model is used to investigate some aspects of the variability of the Arctic freshwater budget, trying to understand which component of the balance is responsible for the variability of the Arctic freshwater content. We also examine the variability of the freshwater exports to the North Atlantic and we find that this variability is controlled differently on both sides of Greenland: whilst freshwater transport variations across Davis Strait are completely determined by the variations of the total volume flux, the salinity variations due to the ice ocean flux north of Greenland are responsible for a significant part of the freshwater export variability through Fram Strait. Afterward, a simulation run with a fully assimilated model of the very recent period is used to explore the possible consequences of the 2007 sea ice extent minimum on the Arctic Ocean freshwater content. Then, the origins of the water masses exported from the Arctic to the North Atlantic along both sides of Greenland are investigated, using an original numerical method. A quantitative Lagrangian analysis is applied to the monthly climatological 3D output of a global ocean/sea-ice high resolution model. It allows quantification of the different branches of the export to the North Atlantic, as well as related timescales and water mass transformations. A complete and c, C'est sans doute en Arctique que le changement climatique est le plus visible, et semble affecter toutes les composantes du système Arctique, et notamment ses bilans d'eau douce et de chaleur. Alors que l'on s'attend à ce que le signal d'un changement local en Arctique ait son impact climatique le plus important lorsqu'il est exporté au sud d'un coté ou de l'autre du Groenland vers les mers subarctiques, où il peut moduler l'intensité de la circulation thermohaline, l'objectif de cette thèse est donc d'étudier les échanges de volume, de chaleur, d'eau douce et de glace de l'Océan Arctique vers l'Atlantique Nord. Tout d'abord, une simulation réaliste des années 1958 à 2002 basée sur un modèle global couplé glace/océan est utilisée pour étudier la variabilité du bilan d'eau douce en Arctique, afin de comprendre quelle composante de ce bilan contrôle les variations du contenu halin du bassin. On s'intéresse également à la variabilité des exports d'eau douce vers l'Atlantique Nord, et on montre que les exports d'eau douce vers l'Atlantique sont contrôlés par des mécanismes différents de part et d'autre du Groenland: dans les détroits canadiens, le transport de volume domine la variabilité, alors que salinité et courants contribuent à la variabilité dans le détroit de Fram. Par la suite, une réanalyse océanique des années récentes nous permet d'explorer les conséquences pour le contenu halin de l'Arctique du minimum record de l'extension de glace de l'été 2007. Une méthode numérique originale est ensuite utilisée pour comprendre l'origine des masses d'eau qui sont exportées de l'Arctique vers l'Atlantique Nord. On effectue ainsi une analyse lagrangienne qualitative à partir des sorties 3D mensuelles climatologiques d'un modèle global couplé glace/océan à haute résolution, qui permet de quantifier les contributions relatives des différentes branches de circulation à ces exports, ainsi que les échelles de temps et les transformations de masses d'eau associées. Un schéma co

While perhaps the most obvious, ice retreat is just one aspect of a changing Arctic system. The Arctic Ocean is also undergoing unprecedented modifications, that mostly affect its heat and freshwater budgets. As the signal of Arctic change is expected to have its major climatic impact by reaching south the subarctic seas, on either side of Greenland, to modulate the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, the objective of this thesis is to investigate the variability of the exports of volume, heat, freshwater and sea-ice from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic. First, a realistic simulation from 1958 to 2002 run with a global ocean/sea-ice model is used to investigate some aspects of the variability of the Arctic freshwater budget, trying to understand which component of the balance is responsible for the variability of the Arctic freshwater content. We also examine the variability of the freshwater exports to the North Atlantic and we find that this variability is controlled differently on both sides of Greenland: whilst freshwater transport variations across Davis Strait are completely determined by the variations of the total volume flux, the salinity variations due to the ice ocean flux north of Greenland are responsible for a significant part of the freshwater export variability through Fram Strait. Afterward, a simulation run with a fully assimilated model of the very recent period is used to explore the possible consequences of the 2007 sea ice extent minimum on the Arctic Ocean freshwater content. Then, the origins of the water masses exported from the Arctic to the North Atlantic along both sides of Greenland are investigated, using an original numerical method. A quantitative Lagrangian analysis is applied to the monthly climatological 3D output of a global ocean/sea-ice high resolution model. It allows quantification of the different branches of the export to the North Atlantic, as well as related timescales and water mass transformations. A complete and c, C'est sans doute en Arctique que le changement climatique est le plus visible, et semble affecter toutes les composantes du système Arctique, et notamment ses bilans d'eau douce et de chaleur. Alors que l'on s'attend à ce que le signal d'un changement local en Arctique ait son impact climatique le plus important lorsqu'il est exporté au sud d'un coté ou de l'autre du Groenland vers les mers subarctiques, où il peut moduler l'intensité de la circulation thermohaline, l'objectif de cette thèse est donc d'étudier les échanges de volume, de chaleur, d'eau douce et de glace de l'Océan Arctique vers l'Atlantique Nord. Tout d'abord, une simulation réaliste des années 1958 à 2002 basée sur un modèle global couplé glace/océan est utilisée pour étudier la variabilité du bilan d'eau douce en Arctique, afin de comprendre quelle composante de ce bilan contrôle les variations du contenu halin du bassin. On s'intéresse également à la variabilité des exports d'eau douce vers l'Atlantique Nord, et on montre que les exports d'eau douce vers l'Atlantique sont contrôlés par des mécanismes différents de part et d'autre du Groenland: dans les détroits canadiens, le transport de volume domine la variabilité, alors que salinité et courants contribuent à la variabilité dans le détroit de Fram. Par la suite, une réanalyse océanique des années récentes nous permet d'explorer les conséquences pour le contenu halin de l'Arctique du minimum record de l'extension de glace de l'été 2007. Une méthode numérique originale est ensuite utilisée pour comprendre l'origine des masses d'eau qui sont exportées de l'Arctique vers l'Atlantique Nord. On effectue ainsi une analyse lagrangienne qualitative à partir des sorties 3D mensuelles climatologiques d'un modèle global couplé glace/océan à haute résolution, qui permet de quantifier les contributions relatives des différentes branches de circulation à ces exports, ainsi que les échelles de temps et les transformations de masses d'eau associées. Un schéma co

We develop, calibrate and test a dataset intended to drive global ocean hindcasts simulations of the last five decades. This dataset provides surface meteorological variables needed to estimate air-sea fluxes and is built from 6-hourly surface atmospheric state variables of ERA40. We first compare the raw fields of ERA40 to the CORE.v1 clataset of Large and Yeager (2004). used here as a reference, and discuss our choice to use daily radiative fluxes and monthly precipitation products extracted from satellite data rather than their ERA40 counterparts. Both datasets lead to excessively high global imbalances of heat and freshwater fluxes when tested with a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature. After identifying unrealistic time discontinuities (induced by changes in the nature of assimilated observations) and obvious global and regional biases in ERA40 fields (by comparison to high quality observations), we propose a set of corrections. Tropical surface air humidity is decreased from 1979 onward, representation of Arctic surface air temperature is improved using recent observations and the wind is globally increased. These corrections lead to a significant decrease of the excessive positive global imbalance of heat. Radiation and precipitation fields are then submitted to a small adjustment (in zonal mean) that yields a near-zero global imbalance of heat and freshwater. A set of 47-year-long simulations is carried out with the coarse-resolution (2 degrees x 2 degrees) version of the NEMO OGCM to assess the sensitivity of the model to the proposed corrections. Model results show that each of the proposed correction contributes to improve the representation of central features of the global ocean circulation. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

While perhaps the most obvious, ice retreat is just one aspect of a changing Arctic system. The Arctic Ocean is also undergoing unprecedented modifications, that mostly affect its heat and freshwater budgets. As the signal of Arctic change is expected to have its major climatic impact by reaching south the subarctic seas, on either side of Greenland, to modulate the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, the objective of this thesis is to investigate the variability of the exports of volume, heat, freshwater and sea-ice from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic. First, a realistic simulation from 1958 to 2002 run with a global ocean/sea-ice model is used to investigate some aspects of the variability of the Arctic freshwater budget, trying to understand which component of the balance is responsible for the variability of the Arctic freshwater content. We also examine the variability of the freshwater exports to the North Atlantic and we find that this variability is controlled differently on both sides of Greenland: whilst freshwater transport variations across Davis Strait are completely determined by the variations of the total volume flux, the salinity variations due to the ice ocean flux north of Greenland are responsible for a significant part of the freshwater export variability through Fram Strait. Afterward, a simulation run with a fully assimilated model of the very recent period is used to explore the possible consequences of the 2007 sea ice extent minimum on the Arctic Ocean freshwater content. Then, the origins of the water masses exported from the Arctic to the North Atlantic along both sides of Greenland are investigated, using an original numerical method. A quantitative Lagrangian analysis is applied to the monthly climatological 3D output of a global ocean/sea-ice high resolution model. It allows quantification of the different branches of the export to the North Atlantic, as well as related timescales and water mass transformations. A complete and c, C'est sans doute en Arctique que le changement climatique est le plus visible, et semble affecter toutes les composantes du système Arctique, et notamment ses bilans d'eau douce et de chaleur. Alors que l'on s'attend à ce que le signal d'un changement local en Arctique ait son impact climatique le plus important lorsqu'il est exporté au sud d'un coté ou de l'autre du Groenland vers les mers subarctiques, où il peut moduler l'intensité de la circulation thermohaline, l'objectif de cette thèse est donc d'étudier les échanges de volume, de chaleur, d'eau douce et de glace de l'Océan Arctique vers l'Atlantique Nord. Tout d'abord, une simulation réaliste des années 1958 à 2002 basée sur un modèle global couplé glace/océan est utilisée pour étudier la variabilité du bilan d'eau douce en Arctique, afin de comprendre quelle composante de ce bilan contrôle les variations du contenu halin du bassin. On s'intéresse également à la variabilité des exports d'eau douce vers l'Atlantique Nord, et on montre que les exports d'eau douce vers l'Atlantique sont contrôlés par des mécanismes différents de part et d'autre du Groenland: dans les détroits canadiens, le transport de volume domine la variabilité, alors que salinité et courants contribuent à la variabilité dans le détroit de Fram. Par la suite, une réanalyse océanique des années récentes nous permet d'explorer les conséquences pour le contenu halin de l'Arctique du minimum record de l'extension de glace de l'été 2007. Une méthode numérique originale est ensuite utilisée pour comprendre l'origine des masses d'eau qui sont exportées de l'Arctique vers l'Atlantique Nord. On effectue ainsi une analyse lagrangienne qualitative à partir des sorties 3D mensuelles climatologiques d'un modèle global couplé glace/océan à haute résolution, qui permet de quantifier les contributions relatives des différentes branches de circulation à ces exports, ainsi que les échelles de temps et les transformations de masses d'eau associées. Un schéma co

We develop, calibrate and test a dataset intended to drive global ocean hindcasts simulations of the last five decades. This dataset provides surface meteorological variables needed to estimate air-sea fluxes and is built from 6-hourly surface atmospheric state variables of ERA40. We first compare the raw fields of ERA40 to the CORE.v1 clataset of Large and Yeager (2004). used here as a reference, and discuss our choice to use daily radiative fluxes and monthly precipitation products extracted from satellite data rather than their ERA40 counterparts. Both datasets lead to excessively high global imbalances of heat and freshwater fluxes when tested with a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature. After identifying unrealistic time discontinuities (induced by changes in the nature of assimilated observations) and obvious global and regional biases in ERA40 fields (by comparison to high quality observations), we propose a set of corrections. Tropical surface air humidity is decreased from 1979 onward, representation of Arctic surface air temperature is improved using recent observations and the wind is globally increased. These corrections lead to a significant decrease of the excessive positive global imbalance of heat. Radiation and precipitation fields are then submitted to a small adjustment (in zonal mean) that yields a near-zero global imbalance of heat and freshwater. A set of 47-year-long simulations is carried out with the coarse-resolution (2 degrees x 2 degrees) version of the NEMO OGCM to assess the sensitivity of the model to the proposed corrections. Model results show that each of the proposed correction contributes to improve the representation of central features of the global ocean circulation. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

While perhaps the most obvious, ice retreat is just one aspect of a changing Arctic system. The Arctic Ocean is also undergoing unprecedented modifications, that mostly affect its heat and freshwater budgets. As the signal of Arctic change is expected to have its major climatic impact by reaching south the subarctic seas, on either side of Greenland, to modulate the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, the objective of this thesis is to investigate the variability of the exports of volume, heat, freshwater and sea-ice from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic. First, a realistic simulation from 1958 to 2002 run with a global ocean/sea-ice model is used to investigate some aspects of the variability of the Arctic freshwater budget, trying to understand which component of the balance is responsible for the variability of the Arctic freshwater content. We also examine the variability of the freshwater exports to the North Atlantic and we find that this variability is controlled differently on both sides of Greenland: whilst freshwater transport variations across Davis Strait are completely determined by the variations of the total volume flux, the salinity variations due to the ice ocean flux north of Greenland are responsible for a significant part of the freshwater export variability through Fram Strait. Afterward, a simulation run with a fully assimilated model of the very recent period is used to explore the possible consequences of the 2007 sea ice extent minimum on the Arctic Ocean freshwater content. Then, the origins of the water masses exported from the Arctic to the North Atlantic along both sides of Greenland are investigated, using an original numerical method. A quantitative Lagrangian analysis is applied to the monthly climatological 3D output of a global ocean/sea-ice high resolution model. It allows quantification of the different branches of the export to the North Atlantic, as well as related timescales and water mass transformations. A complete and c, C'est sans doute en Arctique que le changement climatique est le plus visible, et semble affecter toutes les composantes du système Arctique, et notamment ses bilans d'eau douce et de chaleur. Alors que l'on s'attend à ce que le signal d'un changement local en Arctique ait son impact climatique le plus important lorsqu'il est exporté au sud d'un coté ou de l'autre du Groenland vers les mers subarctiques, où il peut moduler l'intensité de la circulation thermohaline, l'objectif de cette thèse est donc d'étudier les échanges de volume, de chaleur, d'eau douce et de glace de l'Océan Arctique vers l'Atlantique Nord. Tout d'abord, une simulation réaliste des années 1958 à 2002 basée sur un modèle global couplé glace/océan est utilisée pour étudier la variabilité du bilan d'eau douce en Arctique, afin de comprendre quelle composante de ce bilan contrôle les variations du contenu halin du bassin. On s'intéresse également à la variabilité des exports d'eau douce vers l'Atlantique Nord, et on montre que les exports d'eau douce vers l'Atlantique sont contrôlés par des mécanismes différents de part et d'autre du Groenland: dans les détroits canadiens, le transport de volume domine la variabilité, alors que salinité et courants contribuent à la variabilité dans le détroit de Fram. Par la suite, une réanalyse océanique des années récentes nous permet d'explorer les conséquences pour le contenu halin de l'Arctique du minimum record de l'extension de glace de l'été 2007. Une méthode numérique originale est ensuite utilisée pour comprendre l'origine des masses d'eau qui sont exportées de l'Arctique vers l'Atlantique Nord. On effectue ainsi une analyse lagrangienne qualitative à partir des sorties 3D mensuelles climatologiques d'un modèle global couplé glace/océan à haute résolution, qui permet de quantifier les contributions relatives des différentes branches de circulation à ces exports, ainsi que les échelles de temps et les transformations de masses d'eau associées. Un schéma co

We develop, calibrate and test a dataset intended to drive global ocean hindcasts simulations of the last five decades. This dataset provides surface meteorological variables needed to estimate air-sea fluxes and is built from 6-hourly surface atmospheric state variables of ERA40. We first compare the raw fields of ERA40 to the CORE.v1 clataset of Large and Yeager (2004). used here as a reference, and discuss our choice to use daily radiative fluxes and monthly precipitation products extracted from satellite data rather than their ERA40 counterparts. Both datasets lead to excessively high global imbalances of heat and freshwater fluxes when tested with a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature. After identifying unrealistic time discontinuities (induced by changes in the nature of assimilated observations) and obvious global and regional biases in ERA40 fields (by comparison to high quality observations), we propose a set of corrections. Tropical surface air humidity is decreased from 1979 onward, representation of Arctic surface air temperature is improved using recent observations and the wind is globally increased. These corrections lead to a significant decrease of the excessive positive global imbalance of heat. Radiation and precipitation fields are then submitted to a small adjustment (in zonal mean) that yields a near-zero global imbalance of heat and freshwater. A set of 47-year-long simulations is carried out with the coarse-resolution (2 degrees x 2 degrees) version of the NEMO OGCM to assess the sensitivity of the model to the proposed corrections. Model results show that each of the proposed correction contributes to improve the representation of central features of the global ocean circulation. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HYCOM 2.2 (I) maintains all features of HYCOM 2.1. This briefing discusses improvements and changes., Presented at the Layered Ocean Model Workshop (15th), LOM 2009, in Miami, FL on 1-3 Jun 2009. The original document contains color images.

Our long-term goal is to improve arctic sea ice-ocean numerical models by fostering communication and collaboration within the international modeling community. The specific objective of this project is to fund travel to Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) workshops by scientists who are new to the field (e.g., graduate students and post-docs), with additional funding for use by Navy modelers and by other key senior modelers who provide insight for the younger scientists. PI Steele works closely with AOMIP PI Andrey Proshutinsky, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), to organize the workshops, including time for talks on current research, break-out sessions, review talks designed to assess the current state of the field, and social activities. The first AOMIP workshop to use ONR funding took place at WHOI on October 20-23, 2009. Forty two scientists came to WHOI from the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Sweden, Russia, Poland, and England. An additional dozen local WHOI scientists participated in discussions during the week. There were 44 talks and 11 posters presented. Talks were grouped according to the following themes: Freshwater, Sea ice, Model progress and results, Observations and methods, Water masses -- straits and ecosystems, and Atlantic and Pacific water dynamics. This ONR grant supported travel for 16 scientists. All supported scientists gave talks or posters. The potential future impact of AOMIP activities is the improvement of models and observation strategies. In particular, the future impact of exposing young and new-to-the-arctic scientists to the state-of-the-art in arctic modeling is an enhanced capability for more accurate modeling and scientific discovery.