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A total of 736 outpatients diagnosed as having malaria using clinical criteria at a health centre in a highly endemic area of Papua New Guinea were investigated parasitologically. Plasmodium falciparum-attributable fractions were determined using a logistic regression model to compare parasite densities in cases with those of healthy individuals in community surveys. Thirty-seven percent of presumptive cases were found to have raised P. falciparum parasitaemia. This corresponds to an average reporting rate for the population of 0·53 attributable episodes per annum. Whilst the maximum prevalence of parasitaemia in the community was in children aged 5-9 years, the maximum age-specific incidence of attributable cases at the outpatient clinic was 2 cases per annum in the 2- to 4-year-old age group. The procedure for estimating attributable fractions makes it possible to compare morbidity rates between age groups, and to examine how the relationship between morbidity risk and parasite density changes with age, without diagnosing individual episodes. The average tolerance of parasites in an age group was measured by considering the level of parasitaemia associated with a given risk of malaria-attributable morbidity. In contrast to anti-parasite immunity, tolerance of parasites declines with age since at parasite isodensity the probability of being symptomatic increases with age

Anti-pneumococcal polysaccharide antibody (anti-PPS) levels were measured in 153 serum samples collected from children aged between 2 and 47 months living in the highlands of Papua New Guinea (PNG). Fifty-seven of the samples were collected during acute episodes of lower respiratory tract infection (ALRI). Total IgA and IgG increased steadily with age; however, no association was found between the levels of these antibodies and the health status of the child. Total IgM levels showed little relationship to the age of the child but under 12 months of age levels were somewhat higher on average in children with pneumonia. For most of eight pneumococcal serotypes tested, specific IgG levels were found to decline rapidly in the first 6-8 months, reaching a minimum at approximately 12 months of age. Serotype 3 was exceptional in having very low titres in the youngest children. A separate analysis of 24 cord sera suggested that antibodies to this serotype do not usually cross the placenta in PNG. Children with pneumonia tended to have lower levels of specific IgG than healthy controls of the same age. Specific anti-PPS IgA levels were found to increase steadily with age, but were not associated with health status

Abundance of anophelines in 10 villages in the Wosera area of Papua New Guinea was monitored during 1990-1993. Of 85,197 anophelines collected in 1,276 paired indoor and outdoor landing catches, 40.4% were Anopheles koliensis Owen, 36.7% An. punctulatus Donitz, 14.3% Art. karwari (James), 4.9% An. farauti s.l. Laveran, 3.1% An. longirostris Brug, and 0.7% An. bancroftii Giles. Maps of average indoor biting rates were produced using a Bayesian conditional autoregressive model which allowed for heterogeneities in sampling effort over time and space. Differences in spatial distributions among species were observed among and within villages and were related to the distribution of larval habitats and vegetation. Abundance of An. punctulatus and An. koliensis decreased with distance from the main waterway and probably from a sago swamp forest at 6 villages in North Wosera. Abundance of An. punctulatus was associated negatively with those of An. farauti s.l., An. longirostris, and An. bancroftii. The latter 3 species also had relatively low ratios of indoor-to-outdoor biting rates, and earlier biting times than An. punctulatus. Human blood indices of at least 0.79 were observed for all species except An. bancroftii. Abundance of all 6 species was correlated temporally with recent rainfall, but An. koliensis, An. kanvari, and An. longirostris showed greater temporal variability than the other species. An. punctulatus and An. koliensis tended to occur together in time and space (index of association, I = 0.85). Weaker associations were seen between An. farauti s.l. and An. longirostris (I = 0.44) and An. koliensis and An. kanvari (I = 0.34). The most frequently collected species occurred together and were concentrated near the Amugu river; the remaining species tended to occur together but in different parts of the Wosera area. The importance of understanding ecological requirements of the different Anopheles vectors and their association with key household and landscape fea

BACKGROUND: In areas where malaria endemicity is high, many people harbour blood stage parasites without acute febrile illness, complicating the estimation of disease burden from infection data. For Plasmodium falciparum the density of parasitaemia that can be tolerated is low in the youngest children, but reaches a maximum in the age groups at highest risk of infection. There is little data on the age dependence of tolerance in other species of human malaria. METHODS: Parasite densities measured in 24,386 presumptive malaria cases at two local health centres in the Wosera area of Papua New Guinea were compared with the distributions of parasite densities recorded in community surveys in the same area. We then analyse the proportions of cases attributable to each of Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax, and P. malariae as functions of parasite density and age using a latent class model. These attributable fractions are then used to compute the incidence of attributable disease. RESULTS: Overall 33.3%, 6.1%, and 0.1% of the presumptive cases were attributable to P. falciparum, P. vivax, and P. malariae respectively. The incidence of attributable disease and parasite density broadly follow similar age patterns. The logarithm of the incidence of acute illness is approximately proportion to the logarithm of the parasite density for all three malaria species, with little age variation in the relationship for P. vivax or P. malariae. P. falciparum shows more age variation in disease incidence at given levels of parasitaemia than the other species. CONCLUSION: The similarities between Plasmodium species in the relationships between parasite density and risk of attributable disease are compatible with the hypothesis that pan-specific mechanisms may regulate tolerance to different human Plasmodia. A straightforward mathematical expression might be used to project disease burden from parasite density distributions assessed in community-based parasitological surveys.

Chemical ozone loss rates inside the Arctic polar vortex were determined in early 1998 and early 1999 by using the Match technique based on coordinated ozone sonde measurements. These two winters provide the only opportunities in recent years to investigate chemical ozone loss in a warm Arctic vortex under threshold conditions, i.e., where the preconditions for chlorine activation, and hence ozone destruction, only occurred occasionally. In 1998, results were obtained in January and February between 410 and 520 K. The overall ozone loss was observed to be largely insignificant, with the exception of late February, when those air parcels exposed to temperatures below 195 K were affected by chemical ozone loss. In 1999, results are confined to the 475 K isentropic level, where no significant ozone loss was observed. Average temperatures were some 8 deg to 10 deg higher than those in 1995, 1996, and 1997, when substantial chemical ozone loss occurred. The results underline the strong dependence of the chemical ozone loss on the stratospheric temperatures. This study shows that enhanced chlorine alone does not provide a sufficient condition for ozone loss. The evolution of stratospheric temperatures over the next decade will be the determining factor for the amount of wintertime chemical ozone loss in the Arctic stratosphere., Published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, v106 nD7 p7495-7503, 16 Apr 2001.

Chemical ozone loss rates inside the Arctic polar vortex were determined in early 1998 and early 1999 by using the Match technique based on coordinated ozonesonde measurements. These two winters provide the only opportunities in recent years to investigat, Addresses: Schulz A, Alfred Wegener Inst Polar & Marine Res, POB 600149, D-14401 Potsdam, Germany. Alfred Wegener Inst Polar & Marine Res, D-14401 Potsdam, Germany. European Ozone Res Coordinating Unit, Cambridge CB2 1EW, England. Norwegian Inst Air Res

Chemical ozone loss rates inside the Arctic polar vortexweredetermined in early 1998 and early 1999 by using the Match techniquebased on coordinated ozonesonde measurements. These two wintersprovide the only opportunities in recent years to investigatechemical ozone loss in a warm Arctic vortex under thresholdconditions, i.e., where the preconditions for chlorine activation,and hence ozone destruction, only occurred occasionally. In 1998,results were obtained in January and February between 410 and 520 K.The overall ozone loss was observed to be largely insignificant,with the exception of late February, when those air parcels exposedto temperatures below 195 K were affected by chemical ozone loss. In1999, results are confined to the 475 K isentropic level, where nosignificant ozone loss was observed. Average temperatures were some8 -10 K higher than those in 1995, 1996, and 1997,when substantial chemical ozone loss occurred. The results underlinethe strong dependence of the chemical ozone loss on thestratospheric temperatures. This study shows that enhanced chlorinealone does not provide a sufficient condition for ozone loss. Theevolution of stratospheric temperatures over the next decade will bethe determining factor for the amount of wintertime chemical ozoneloss in the Arctic stratosphere.

Chemical ozone loss rates inside the Arctic polar vortexweredetermined in early 1998 and early 1999 by using the Match techniquebased on coordinated ozonesonde measurements. These two wintersprovide the only opportunities in recent years to investigatechemical ozone loss in a warm Arctic vortex under thresholdconditions, i.e., where the preconditions for chlorine activation,and hence ozone destruction, only occurred occasionally. In 1998,results were obtained in January and February between 410 and 520 K.The overall ozone loss was observed to be largely insignificant,with the exception of late February, when those air parcels exposedto temperatures below 195 K were affected by chemical ozone loss. In1999, results are confined to the 475 K isentropic level, where nosignificant ozone loss was observed. Average temperatures were some8 -10 K higher than those in 1995, 1996, and 1997,when substantial chemical ozone loss occurred. The results underlinethe strong dependence of the chemical ozone loss on thestratospheric temperatures. This study shows that enhanced chlorinealone does not provide a sufficient condition for ozone loss. Theevolution of stratospheric temperatures over the next decade will bethe determining factor for the amount of wintertime chemical ozoneloss in the Arctic stratosphere.

With the Match technique, which is based on the coordinated release of ozonesondes, chemicalozone loss rates in the Arctic stratospheric vortex in early 1997 have been quantified in a verticalregion between 400K and 550K. Ozone destruction was observed from mid February to midMarch in most of these levels, with maximum loss rates between 25 and 45ppbv/day. The vortexaveraged loss rates and the accumulated vertically integrated ozone loss have been smaller than inthe previous two winters, indicating that the record low ozone columns observed in spring 1997were partly caused by dynamical effects. The observed ozone loss is inhomogeneous through thevortex with the highest loss rates located in the vortex centre, coinciding with the lowesttemperatures. Here the loss rates per sunlit hour reached 6 ppbv/h, while the correspondingvortex averaged rates did not exceed 3.9 ppbv/h.

With the Match technique, which is based on the coordinated release of ozonesondes, chemicalozone loss rates in the Arctic stratospheric vortex in early 1997 have been quantified in a verticalregion between 400K and 550K. Ozone destruction was observed from mid February to midMarch in most of these levels, with maximum loss rates between 25 and 45ppbv/day. The vortexaveraged loss rates and the accumulated vertically integrated ozone loss have been smaller than inthe previous two winters, indicating that the record low ozone columns observed in spring 1997were partly caused by dynamical effects. The observed ozone loss is inhomogeneous through thevortex with the highest loss rates located in the vortex centre, coinciding with the lowesttemperatures. Here the loss rates per sunlit hour reached 6 ppbv/h, while the correspondingvortex averaged rates did not exceed 3.9 ppbv/h.

To assess the validity of clinical criteria, we investigated 2096 outpatients diagnosed as malaria cases by nurses at a rural health subcentre in a highly endemic area of Papua New Guinea. 73% of the children < 10 years old had a positive blood slide for any species of Plasmodium and 32% had ⩾ 10 000 P. falciparum parasites per μL. For adults the frequencies were 51% and 9%, respectively. Stepwise logistic regression identified spleen size, no cough, temperature, no chest indrawing, and normal stools as significant predictors for a positive blood slide in children; no cough and normal stools predicted a positive blood slide in adults. Fever, no cough, vomiting, and enlarged spleen were significant predictors for a P. falciparum parasitaemia ⩾ 10 000/μL in children; in adults the only predictor was vomiting. In children the association of no cough and enlarged spleen had the best predictive value for a positive blood slide, and a temperature ⩾ 38 °C had the best predictive value for a P. falciparum parasitaemia ⩾ 10 000 μL. In adults, no major symptom had a good predictive value for a positive blood slide but vomiting had the best predictive value for a P. falciparum parasitaemia ⩾ 10 000/μL. When microscopy is not available, these findings can help in areas of high endemicity to determine which patients with a history of fever are most likely to have malaria and, more importantly, for which patients another diagnosis should be strongly considered

Anti-pneumococcal polysaccharide antibody (anti-PPS) levels were measured in 153 serum samples collected from children aged between 2 and 47 months living in the highlands of Papua New Guinea (PNG). Fifty-seven of the samples were collected during acute episodes of lower respiratory tract infection (ALRI). Total IgA and IgG increased steadily with age; however, no association was found between the levels of these antibodies and the health status of the child. Total IgM levels showed little relationship to the age of the child but under 12 months of age levels were somewhat higher on average in children with pneumonia. For most of eight pneumococcal serotypes tested, specific IgG levels were found to decline rapidly in the first 6-8 months, reaching a minimum at approximately 12 months of age. Serotype 3 was exceptional in having very low titres in the youngest children. A separate analysis of 24 cord sera suggested that antibodies to this serotype do not usually cross the placenta in PNG. Children with pneumonia tended to have lower levels of specific IgG than healthy controls of the same age. Specific anti-PPS IgA levels were found to increase steadily with age, but were not associated with health status

Abundance of anophelines in 10 villages in the Wosera area of Papua New Guinea was monitored during 1990-1993. Of 85,197 anophelines collected in 1,276 paired indoor and outdoor landing catches, 40.4% were Anopheles koliensis Owen, 36.7% An. punctulatus Donitz, 14.3% Art. karwari (James), 4.9% An. farauti s.l. Laveran, 3.1% An. longirostris Brug, and 0.7% An. bancroftii Giles. Maps of average indoor biting rates were produced using a Bayesian conditional autoregressive model which allowed for heterogeneities in sampling effort over time and space. Differences in spatial distributions among species were observed among and within villages and were related to the distribution of larval habitats and vegetation. Abundance of An. punctulatus and An. koliensis decreased with distance from the main waterway and probably from a sago swamp forest at 6 villages in North Wosera. Abundance of An. punctulatus was associated negatively with those of An. farauti s.l., An. longirostris, and An. bancroftii. The latter 3 species also had relatively low ratios of indoor-to-outdoor biting rates, and earlier biting times than An. punctulatus. Human blood indices of at least 0.79 were observed for all species except An. bancroftii. Abundance of all 6 species was correlated temporally with recent rainfall, but An. koliensis, An. kanvari, and An. longirostris showed greater temporal variability than the other species. An. punctulatus and An. koliensis tended to occur together in time and space (index of association, I = 0.85). Weaker associations were seen between An. farauti s.l. and An. longirostris (I = 0.44) and An. koliensis and An. kanvari (I = 0.34). The most frequently collected species occurred together and were concentrated near the Amugu river; the remaining species tended to occur together but in different parts of the Wosera area. The importance of understanding ecological requirements of the different Anopheles vectors and their association with key household and landscape fea

A total of 736 outpatients diagnosed as having malaria using clinical criteria at a health centre in a highly endemic area of Papua New Guinea were investigated parasitologically. Plasmodium falciparum-attributable fractions were determined using a logistic regression model to compare parasite densities in cases with those of healthy individuals in community surveys. Thirty-seven percent of presumptive cases were found to have raised P. falciparum parasitaemia. This corresponds to an average reporting rate for the population of 0·53 attributable episodes per annum. Whilst the maximum prevalence of parasitaemia in the community was in children aged 5-9 years, the maximum age-specific incidence of attributable cases at the outpatient clinic was 2 cases per annum in the 2- to 4-year-old age group. The procedure for estimating attributable fractions makes it possible to compare morbidity rates between age groups, and to examine how the relationship between morbidity risk and parasite density changes with age, without diagnosing individual episodes. The average tolerance of parasites in an age group was measured by considering the level of parasitaemia associated with a given risk of malaria-attributable morbidity. In contrast to anti-parasite immunity, tolerance of parasites declines with age since at parasite isodensity the probability of being symptomatic increases with age