1. Transforming Protein: Land-Use Implications of a Transition to Plant-Based Meat
- Author
-
Wozniak, Richard
- Subjects
- agriculture, plant-based, protein, land-use
- Abstract
The burgeoning plant-based meat industry has demonstrated the potential for plant-based meat to provide a comparable consumer experience to animal meat with a significantly reduced environmental impact. This study explores the land-use implications of plant-based meat production under various adoption scenarios and ingredient mixtures. A system-level model quantifies land that is both offset from beef and pork production and land that is potentially additive from ingredients grown in regions outside traditional animal agriculture supply chains. Coconut oil is explored as a potential high-risk ingredient due to it contributing additive land-use and being grown in sensitive biomes. GIS software was used to contextualize land-use requirements for the oil by comparing projections to existing suitable agricultural land in top producing countries and current production land area. Finally, a qualitative case study of potential risks and opportunities associated with relying on the oil was conducted to inform sourcing and ingredient panel strategies. There are several key takeaways from the analyses conducted: 1. Due to its much larger land-use footprint, plant-based displacement of beef products drive proportionally higher land-use benefits than that of pork. 2. Over 20 years, roughly 25% rate of animal-based meat displacement in the US will stabilize land-use associated with overall meat production in the country. 3. Under high market adoption, plant-based meat will require almost two million square hectares of land for coconut oil production in 20 years, or 55% of land currently used for coconut cultivation in the Philippines. These findings signal that plant-based meat has significant land-use implications which can be realized under reasonably high adoption and over the long run. The industry would benefit from diversifying ingredients which represent additive land-use and potential supply chain risks. The research presented serves as a “living” model and foundation for future investigation into other ingredients used in plant-based meat products.
- Published
- 2020