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There has been no shortage of literature that has focused on the role of money in politics. While the majority has focused squarely on the fundraising activities and spending preferences of parties and candidates, far less has paid attention to the spending habits of corporations, unions and interests that often register as non-parties. Yet these actors have gained prominence across general elections and referendum campaigns in the past decade owing to the increase in funds spent to influence election outcomes. Little is known about what the public thinks about the participation of these actors in campaigns. Yet public opinion toward non-party campaign spending is important to the degree that it effects perceptions of electoral integrity and might compel policy change. This paper uses new survey data collected from Canada and the UK to answer questions about how citizens perceive non-party campaign spending and what informs attitudes toward non-parties. We find that the public in both countries have mixed views on the participation of non-parties, but that there is some evidence that core concerns about electoral interiority and perceptions toward the role of money in politics drives opinion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research in the United States has found that municipal governments are responsive to the ideological complexion of their cities even in the absence of partisan elections. In this paper, I test for the presence of party match—a match between the partisan character of a district and the partisanship of its municipal representative—in Canada, where municipal elections are distinctively non-partisan. Using new data on district-level party support and the partisanship of Canadian municipal politicians, I find clear evidence for party match. This match is equally likely in at-large and ward elections, partisan and non-partisan elections, and large and small cities. I thus argue that partisan and ideological representation is an important and widespread feature of Canadian municipal politics. I discuss the implications of these findings for theories of municipal representation and the role of ideology in municipal politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the prevalence of ballot order effects in two different types of Canadian elections which differ greatly by the strength of party cues they provide to voters. Provincial elections are best described as a typical competition between well established and institutionalized parties, hence providing voters with strong party cues. Alternatively, municipal politics provide voters with much weaker party cues. We use electoral results from recent provincial and municipal elections in Québec and find ballot order effects in municipal elections but not in provincial ones. Although ballot order effects may also be the product of alphabetic preference bias, we argue that in any case these are cognitive biases that are ultimately the product of insufficient cues that voters need in order to cast well-informed votes. The paper, therefore, sheds some light on an understudied type of election in political science. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Election studies must optimize on sample size, cost and data quality. The 2015 Canadian Election Study was the first CES to employ a full mixed-mode design, aiming to take advantage of the opportunities of each mode while preserving enough commonality to compare them. This paper examines the phone interviews conducted by ISR-York and the online questionnaires from panellists purchased from a sample provider. We compare data quality and representativeness. We conduct a comprehensive comparison of the distributions of responses across modes and a comparative analysis of inferences about voting. We find that the cost/power advantages of the online mode will likely make it the mode of choice for subsequent election studies. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper draws upon data collected from an online voting experiment to test the implications of “going negative” in a multiparty election campaign. Specifically, we investigate two sets of questions: First, does the attention and vote share that candidates receive vary according to the tone (positive/negative) of their election campaign? Second, does the attention and vote share that candidates receive vary according to whether or not all candidates engage in similar (positive/negative) campaigns? While studies of “negative campaigning” have been prominent in the American context, our work builds upon this literature by using an experimental design to test for their effects in a multiparty setting. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change’s causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how ethnoracial minorities fared in getting elected as MPs in the Canadian general elections of 2006 and 2008 -- an analysis guided by descriptive characterizations and interpretative themes discerned from studies of minority parliamentary representation over the 1993-2004 period. This paper also examines more specific categories that make up the minority population, thus allowing for perspectives on both inter-group differences and longitudinal effects. A key finding is that for minorities taken as a whole, as well as for the overall category of visible minorities, the 2006 and 2008 results fit an already-established pattern of quite modest increases in minority representation (as in 2006) interrupted by occasional decline (as in 2008). In addition, for both visible minorities as a group and for most of their constituent subcategories, the overwhelming evidence is of persisting representation deficits which are defined by MP percentages that are less than the corresponding population percentages. There is also evidence that the association of minority MPs with the Liberal party, observed as waning over the 1993-2004 period, continued to do so in 2006 and 2008. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the risks associated with online voting and to compare them with more traditional voting modes. Design/methodology/approach - A modified version of the Operationally Critical Threat, Asset, and Vulnerability Evaluation (OCTAVE) approach from the CERT Coordination Center® at Carnegie-Mellon University is used for developing a framework for comparing threats for different stakeholders. In addition, these risks and threats are quantified, offering an opportunity to conduct a multi-mode risk analysis in a manner independent of the underlying voting modes. The framework is exemplified using data from officials who had been involved in an actual municipal election, in which registered voters were given the option of voting through the Internet. Findings - What is instructive in the context of this study is that the "low-tech" threats such as large-scale mail theft of election notifications and family member coercion may in fact be significant for Internet voting, and the sensationalized threats mentioned by the media may pale in comparison in terms of vulnerabilities. Research limitations/implications - Conclusions drawn from applying the methods may be very sensitive to parameters chosen for quantification, especially since estimates of probabilities of threats may vary in order of magnitude. Originality/value - This paper demonstrates a quantitative and comparative analysis for Internet voting, something which does not seem to be adequately addressed in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canadian political parties have been using the Internet as a campaign tool since the 1997 election. Rebuilding Canadian Party Politics by Carty, Cross and Young (2000) presents one of the first analyses of Internet-based communications during a Canadian election. It is also one of the most important assessments of Canadian party systems. The book outlines the components that characterize the fourth party system, which they argue, began after the 1993 election. Regionalization is the defining characteristic of this emerging system. The book argues that the Internet, like other communication technologies, is important in this latest party system. Consistent with the notion of regionalized campaign communications, the authors suggest that Canadian political parties use the Internet to target campaign messages to different regional and sociodemographic groups and enter into private conversations with voters. Using original data collected from the 2004 federal election, this paper reflects on these claims. The paper builds the case that the use of the Internet as a campaign tool is not consistent with their argument. Internet-based campaign communications in Canada by the major parties is neither regionalized nor targeted. Rather, this technology makes campaign communication more transparent and centralized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the existence of sub-State political cultures in Canada. In so doing it revisits research conducted by Richard Simeon and David Elkins into the existence of provincial political cultures in Canada. It reviews the evidence for provincial political cultures and examines recent data from the Canadian Election Study in an effort to determine whether attitudes towards government have changed. Second, it revisits the process by which sub-cultures are identified Using data from the federal election profiles and the CES the paper identifies nine distinct regional variant cultures within Canada. These regional cultures possess different political attitudes and behaviours that cannot be explained by the existence of provincial boundaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Are voters willing to punish a prime minister for calling an ‘unnecessary’ snap election for purely opportunistic reasons? This paper examines voters’ reactions to the Canadian prime minister's decision to call a snap election in November 2000. The decision provoked limited resentment, and that resentment was strongest among partisans of the opposition parties and among those who follow politics closely. Those who do not keep up with politics, it seems, either did not realize that the election was precipitous or simply did not care. The paper shows that resentment about the election call was a consideration in vote choice, but it was a decisive consideration for a very small group of voters. We estimate that the electoral cost to the incumbent Liberal Party was one percentage point. Some voters are prepared to punish prime ministers for opportunistically calling a snap election, but in this case the electoral penalty was small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the 2014 electoral process of Quebec, migrants were central actors. The dominant identitarian-populist faction had targeted its attacks on migrants, particularly Muslims, and presented them as a threat for society since their religions and traditions were dangerous to the Quebec's secular state --inspired on the "French model"--. The 2014 election evinced a new role of migrants, traditionally marginalized in both the political and public arena. Academics and citizens mobilized to stand against the dominant populist media and the powerful official discourse. Besides, the high rate of participation among migrants determined the defeat of the separatist party. This paper is a documentary media research as well as a testimony, as a migrant myself, about the electoral campaign. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Could the municipal political scandals uncovered by the Charbonneau Commission exert an influence on a main characteristic of municipal politics: the stability of its politicians? This paper intends to explore this issue during the 2013 Quebec elections. To verify adherence and/or deviation from established trends, we adopt a diachronic view that considers the two previous elections (2005 and 2009). Three factors are taken into consideration when interpreting voter trends: (1) voter participation and the competitiveness of the elections; (2) the role of municipal political parties; and (3) the incumbency advantage. We observed (1) more competitive elections; (2) a shrinking number of political parties but evidences of their general stabilization; (3) a slight renewal of municipal politicians due more to withdrawal from office than to electoral defeat. Finally, our analysis of electoral data also uncovered variable dynamics within Quebec communities of different sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper assesses the influence of electoral rules on vote choice and election outcomes using a quasi-experiment conducted during a recent Canadian provincial election. Respondents were invited to vote under three voting systems (first past the post, alternative voting and proportional representation) and to answer a short questionnaire. We examine how the distribution of votes and seats is affected, and we ascertain how much of the total difference is due to psychological and mechanical effects. We find that a PR system would have increased legislative fractionalization by the equivalent of one effective party and that the mechanical effect is much more important than the psychological effect. As for AV, its mechanical and psychological effects act in opposite directions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper uses data from an online voting experiment to examine the impact of institutional socialization on the vote decision process. More specifically, we examine how Canadian and American voters differ in their vote decision processes in two- and four-party elections. Our expectation is that Canadian voters, who are more familiar with multiparty electoral context, will adjust to the increased complexity of the four-party competition by engaging in a more detailed decision process. Alternatively, we expect US voters, who are less familiar with multiparty competitions, will not undertake such an adjustment, perhaps even engaging in a less detailed vote calculus under more complex conditions. Results lend support to our expectations, offering insight into how institutional design and socialization can affect voter decision processes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Advocates have called for universal, quality child care in Canada since the 1970s, but the issue seldom appeared to acquire political urgency. The 2006 election campaign seemed different. The governing Liberals promised to devote billions to a nascent national program. The Conservatives promised parents a cash allowance for young children. Child care seemed to be emerging as a significant issue in a political campaign. How was ECEC written about before, during and after Canadian election campaigns? Who is quoted and how? Our project mapped articles about child care in four major Canadian dailies between 2000 and 2008. We found that coverage spiked in 2000 and 2005-2006-during federal elections. Coverage nearly doubled in 2005-2006 in all but one paper. Using content analysis, we compared coverage of child care and sources in the 55 days before the start of campaigning, 55 days of campaigning, and 55 days following the 2006 election. We mapped and compared who said what, and how about child care policy and related issues, in Canada. We found: (1) that newspapers' ideological slants are apparent in their choice of sources and focus; and (2) that more importantly, despite ideological differences, political figures outnumbered activists, parents and child care providers. With only minor variations across the newspapers, the voices of parents and child care activists were marginal especially in the 55 days of campaigning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates factors affecting voting behavior in Canada’s October 2008 federal election. The election was held in the context of a rapidly worsening financial crisis that threatened to become a global economic meltdown. National survey data gathered in the 2008 Political Support in Canada Study reveal that the deteriorating economy trumped the opposition Liberal Party’s Green Shift Program as the major campaign issue by a huge margin. Damage done to the governing Conservatives by the economic crisis was limited by perceptions of their leader, Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Analyses of a mixed logit model of electoral choice shows that although the Conservatives had a relatively small share of party identifiers and Harper was widely disliked, his image as “safe pair on hands” helped his party weather the political storm generated by the flood of bad economic news. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Canadian federal cabinet stands out among Westminster parliamentary democracies because of the large number of first-time ministers who are appointed to cabinet without any previous parliamentary or political experience. Several explanations have been put forward to account for this peculiarity but no attempt has been made to examine how Canadian prime ministers overcome the information deficit associated with appointing ministers with no experience. How can prime ministers be confident that they are making the right choice? This paper explores the subject by estimating the survival functions of ministerial turnover for potential, but not yet appointed, cabinet ministers were they to survive to a defined political benchmark; these survival rates are included in a logit model of Canadian ministerial appointment following four general elections (1957, 1979, 1984 and 2006) in which the prime minister was tasked with appointing a cabinet with ministerial neophytes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper assesses the extent to which party systems are nationalized in four federations. In doing so, the research addresses two questions. First, is dual accountability operational across decentralized countries, or do sub-national voters turn to national cues as a means to economize in a complex information environment? By bringing a cross-national dataset to bear on this question, we are able to provide insight into where and why dual accountability might operate. Second, what explains variation in the extent to which party systems are nationalized across countries and time? We build on previous literature to suggest a number of factors likely to impact the extent of nationalization. We examine those factors in the context of provincial-level elections in Argentina, Canada, Germany and the United States. Using national and sub-national economic data, we find little evidence of dual accountability in any of our countries. We find that economic performance matters little for regional electoral outcomes, and where it does, sub-national outcomes reflect national rather than sub-national conditions. More important are the roles of partisan relations across levels of government and election timing. Sub-national co-partisans of the nationally governing party lose votes, particularly as the time from the most recent national election grows. The strength of these effects varies across our cases in predictable ways. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

With this paper we study the impact of decentralization on turnout. We test the hypotheses that decentralization increases turnout in subnational elections, lowers participation in national elections, and reduces the gap between regional and national arenas. A comparative cross-national analysis does not show any significant effect of decentralization on turnout in national elections. But we take a closer look at two countries, Canada and Spain, where fiscal decentralization has taken place during the past decades. In both countries the empirical evidence suggests that decentralization has contributed to reducing the turnout gap between regional and national elections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While a number of scholars have offered a variety of constitutional critiques and political analyses for the 2008 prorogation of parliament, to date no comprehensive theoretical exploration has been attempted. In addition to the widespread agreement that the use of prorogation to avoid a potential nonconfidence vote was problematic, some have acknowledged that efforts to undermine the role of parliament in Canada have become routine. Combined with the role nationalistic tensions played in justifying such a profound departure from the principles of responsible government, this paper accepts the view that the 2008 decision to prorogue parliament constituted a "harm." Using routine activities theory it explores the events before, during, and after prorogation based on the confluence of a motivated actor, a suitable target, and the lack of a capable guardian. While this theory frames past events in a new way, of specific value is how the theory can be used to begin to chart a course to correct what has been called a dangerous constitutional precedent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gated communities have been characterised as representing processes of ‘forting up’ and ‘civic secession’, in which their residents use gating as a strategy for withdrawing from political life and from taking collective responsibility for others. The assumption is that the residents of private gated communities should be less likely to participate in political life, and/or be more likely to support political parties on the right who advocate privatisation, reduced government expenditures and lower taxes. If the act of living in a gated community is associated with either greater support for parties and policies on the right of the political spectrum, or limited political participation, then the growth of such forms of privatised communities has potential implications for the future of urban politics and even for national political systems. However, despite surveys that have dealt with social attitudes ‘behind the gates’, insufficient attention has been paid to the politics of gated community residents. This paper fills this gap through a comparative analysis of electoral behaviour during the 2006 federal election at the level of the polling station. Electoral participation and partisanship in 27 gated communities in three Canadian metropolitan areas is compared against that of non-gated residents. Regression analysis is conducted in order to determine whether gated community residents differ from their non-gated counterparts in the way they vote and their levels of electoral turnout, after controlling for social composition. The potential implications of this research are then discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing literature on gender effects in the electoral process offers little evidence of significant gender vote share differentials. In this paper it is shown that for the 2006 Canadian federal election, once candidate campaign spending is introduced into the model with appropriate flexibility in the vote share responsiveness across genders, significant differences are found to exist between male and female candidates. The findings suggest that, for equal levels of spending, male incumbents have a vote share advantage relative to female incumbents, though this vote share advantage is found to diminish with increased expenditures. Female non-incumbent candidates, on the other hand, have a vote share advantage over male non-incumbent candidates for higher levels of expenditure and this advantage was found to increase with increased expenditures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While an important component of incumbent support, the effect of economic conditions on vote choice (economic voting) can be undermined by the presence of multilevel institutions; voters are faced with the prospect of evaluating economic conditions and governments at different levels simultaneously. This paper tests the applicability of a model which seeks to account for how and how well voters cope with the complexity of multilevel governance. The accountability-centred model suggests that federal and provincial governments should only be evaluated for those actions and outcomes that they can reasonably be seen to have influence over. Additionally, it is asked whether high information respondents are better able to navigate some of the complexities of Canada's multilevel system. Analyses are conducted using data from the 1993 and 1997 Canadian Election Studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between social group identity and the level of political information in explaining Canadians' issue attitudes and vote choices. Traditional accounts of Canadians' partisan political leanings have placed a great deal of emphasis on social group identity in explaining attitudes. However based on data from the Canadian Election Studies from 1988-2004, it is argued that both social group identity and information influence the nature of vote choice and public opinion in Canada. In fact, the level of voter information has two contradictory effects on the political attitudes of different social groups. In some cases voters' level of information reduces the role of social group identity in explaining attitudes and vote choices; information acts to bridge the differences between different social groups (for example Catholics/non-Catholics and urban/rural Canadians). In other cases, voters' level of information acts to amplify the importance of social group identity in predicting attitudes (for example women/men and religious/nonreligious). These findings suggest that not only is social group identity a less effective predictor of attitudes than has traditionally been thought but that there are also significant underlying differences between the so-called "old" and "new" cleavages in Canada when it comes to understanding their impact on political values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voter turnout in Canada has declined in the last several décades and is now among the lowest in the western world. In this paper, we examine, through téléphoné surveys, the reasons why electors did not exercise their right to vote at the municipal level. When non-voters were asked why they did not vote, the most frequent reason was lack of information about candidates and the poor quality of the candidates. The person most likely to vote is a senior, upper income, born outside Canada, owning their own home, and politically and community involved. These results are not dissimilar to those in a recent survey of fédéral electors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses data from the 2004 Canadian Election Study to analyze the factors that motivated a vote for each party and to identify the ones that mattered most to the outcome of the 2004 federal election outside Quebec. Particular attention is given to the impact of the sponsorship scandal, the sources of support for the new Conservative party and the factors that explain the NDP's improved performance. The findings are used to address some basic questions about the 2004 election and its larger implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional wisdom, buttressed by numerous empirical studies, has questioned the importance of both class and ideological factors on voting behavior in Canada. However, two recent studies of the 1997 Canadian national election [Gidengil et al., Canadian J. Political Sci. 32 (1999) 247; Nevitte et al., Unsteady State: The 1997 Canadian Federal Election, Oxford University Press, Ontario, 2000] indicate that ideological factors played an important role in determining the outcome of the election, since they affected the direction of the vote for the several parties in both Quebec and the rest of Canada. In this paper, we clarify and extend these analyses with data from the 2000 election, as well as the 1997 election. We find that a number of ideological dimensions underlie the issue positions of voters in Quebec and the rest of Canada in both the elections and that these have important implications for the maintenance of the multiparty system that seemed to emerge in the last decade. More specifically, we find that ideological factors affect partisan volatility in Canada, and that the inclusion of these factors improves the explanatory power of a standard vote choice model in both election years. We infer from our findings that ideological differences among Canadian voters can help sustain a multiparty system in the foreseeable future but that it is a system that currently favors the Liberal Party—so much so, in fact, that the ability of any other party to successfully displace the Liberals as the government in the future is problematic. However, there is a curious periodicity to the electoral fortunes of Canadian parties at both the federal and provincial levels. Political parties can govern for years and then experience an electoral disaster of a magnitude sufficient to make them a distinctly minority party. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper establishes the methodological foundations for a systematic analysis of the direct impact of the media on the vote. We propose to combine two different approaches: the `linkage' approach which relates media coverage to voting intentions, and the `attentiveness' approach which compares the vote choice of those who pay most and least attention to television news. We apply these two methods to the 1997 Canadian election. We find support for the hypothesis that, during the election campaign, voting intentions for a party increased (decreased) when media coverage of that party was systematically positive (or negative), among those who followed the news and decided how to vote during the campaign, but we find no evidence that, on election day, those more attentive to the news voted differently from those less attentive. We conclude that the media temporarily moved voting intentions during the course of the 1997 Canadian election but that they appear to have had no direct impact on the final vote. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern election campaign studies focus on national dimensions at the expense of attending to local campaigns in legislative elections. This is also true of analyses of media coverage and impact of election campaigns. This paper examines the local dimension of media and election campaigns across a wide range of diverse constituency contexts in Canada in order to identify the political, socioeconomic, and geographic determinants of constituency party associations’ ability to attract local media attention during an election campaign. We also examine the role of these features of the constituency settings and explain variations in satisfaction with the media’s coverage of the local campaign. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]